Late Innings

The Scott Boras Corporation comments on the Steven Strasburg situation:

The Nationals do indeed have history on their side. The precedent has long been set that $10 million is the ceiling. The leverage is very limited for these amateur players since no other league is comparable. If college players don’t sign, they can return to college and hope for better a year later, or they can go to an independent league. None in the past have tried playing overseas, or even using that as leverage, but nothing can be ruled out in this once-in-a-generation case.

Boras apparently caught wind of the stories circulating last week regarding Strasburg, and apparently likes what people are speculating. For him to snag 50MM for an amateur client is a win win for the mighty agent. This is clearly an aggressive piece from Boras. Boras fires this warning shot about Strasburg as follows:

A couple top collegians represented by Boras have declined to sign after being selected and offered million-dollar bonuses, including J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek. But only rare players such as those two have the fortitude to try it.

Boras essentially states that Strasburg will break all sorts of records with his signing. He’s going to get his money, good economy or bad. Or as he puts it in closing:

The Nationals have the money (Ted Lerner has been estimated to be baseball’s richest owner at about $4.5 billion, though in this falling economy it’s difficult to gauge anyone’s true net worth), and they certainly have the need. But they also have history on their side. That history says amateur players get $10 million tops. Strasburg should beat that figure. But the question is by how much.

Is it just me, or is having Scott Boras in charge of MLB rumors considered a conflict of interest?

As everyone knows by now, the Orioles optioned top catching prospect Matt Wieters to Triple A Norfolk yesterday. For most people near Baltimore, this isn’t a surprise, since the team will get a seventh year of service from Wieters if he’s brought up at the right time (mid May.) Granted he’ll most likely have Super Two status, but that’s not a problem for me.

There were a few comments around the blogosphere about this. Shyster’s was classic, however I wanted to cite something from Baseball Musings:

I really wonder how much holding back Longoria helped in him signing a long-term contract. I’m guessing you offer any first-year player a nice, long-term deal, he’s going to take it. If the Orioles came to Wieters with a seven-year, $50 million deal, he’s signing on the dotted line. Instead, Baltimore plays games with service time, instead of getting someone who might bring the fans out into the lineup.

As many people recall, Evan Longoria signed a six year deal (for 17MM) within days after his callup last April (it can grow to nine at 45MM.) It’s a great move for Tampa Bay, however there was some risk attached to it initially. Many fans loved the move, Scott Boras however naturally hated it. The reason why? The owners are getting top talent at below-market prices.

I disagree with David Pinto’s comment, and fully expect Wieters to go year to year. The reason why, he’s represented by Boras. Boras has the best catching prospect to come along in two decades under his umbrella, why would he want to lock up this kid as soon as he can. Wieters has time, and if Boras takes him year to year, he’ll maximize his earnings.

Take Mark Teixeira. The Rangers offered him a eight year, 140MM deal a couple years ago. Boras shrugged it off, and the Rangers (knowing that they weren’t going to be able to keep Tex) dealt him to the Braves for a slew of prospects, which include Jarrod Saltamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Netfali Feliz, Scott Feldman, … (oh vey, easily the biggest haul of prospects I have ever seen.)

Granted I don’t expect the Orioles to deal Wieters to someone else, but at the same time I don’t expect him to sign any long term deals. Boras knows what he’s doing. If you throw in Stephen Strasburg, Boras has the best battery of prospects that has ever come up in the past 15 years under his wing. He’s naturally going to get them the most money they can get.

There has been tons of talk lately about Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State pitching prospect who can hit 102 on a radar quite often. I’ve seen the videos of him pitching, the 23 strikeout game, the dominance over the Dutch, he looks good… however is he the best pitching prospect to come along in the past 15 years, or is this another drumming up from the PR Machine of the Scott Boras Corporation?

Oddly enough, Jon Heyman hasn’t chimed in, however ESPN’s Buster Olney got things started with this glowing blog entry a week back:

So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year’s draft?

“The best I’ve ever seen,” says a longtime scout. “And it’s not even close.”

C’mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal – tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You’re saying he’s better than what Prior was then?

“Easily,” says the scout, over the phone. “I’m telling you, it’s not even close.”

In other words, if Strasburg was on the free agent market this winter, he would be comparable to A.J. Burnett, who landed a 82MM contract with the New York Yankees back in December. However that wasn’t the case, and he’ll enter the 2009 Amateur Draft, most likely as the top overall selection, which is held by the Washington Nationals. However the ever-exciting Scott Boras caught wind of the aforementioned ESPN piece, and brought up his own idea on the price tag of this talented pitching prospect: 50MM in total compensation over six years.

As Dave Cameron reminds us, the record for total compensation of an amateur selection is held by Mark Prior, who got 10.5MM. Mark Teixeira is second with 9.9MM and David Price is third with 8.5MM…

***

In looking at a comparable to Strasburg, I would definitely suggest Price. Both pitchers have clear #1 ceilings, however Strasburg has considerably more zip on his heater (though Price is known to hit trips in his as well.) ESPNs’ Keith Law disagrees, and says that there is no comparable to this pitcher. Jim Callis of BA tones down Olney as well:

Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he’s not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there’s little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.

John Sickels also has a few remarks himself:

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I’ve received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn’t pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

***

With that stated, Strasburg is a fine talent, but at the same time he is mortal. In all fairness I could see him getting 10MM guaranteed next year, maybe 12MM, from whomever drafts him. 50MM? That could be a little too far fetched. Now with Washington having the top pick in the draft, could they take him first overall, knowing that Boras has these grandiose plans in place for his top pitching prospect? If they don’t take Strasburg, the next best available player (Grant Green) also has Boras “advising” him.

This isn’t the first time that Boras has thrown a wrench into the Amateur Draft. Boras represents Matt Wieters, and he fell all the way down to the #5 spot, where Baltimore gleefully took him (giving him the 6MM signing bonus he demanded.) Teams were reluctant to grab him due to the fact that Boras was his advisor (ask the Pirates how they like Daniel Moskos.) Could the same thing happen with Strasburg this year?

Given the fact that the Nationals lost out on Arron Crow, I’m sure they’ll take Strasburg with the #1 pick. And I do see them signing him, for reasons they they were unable to sign Crow and Teixeira. It won’t take 50MM, but in any case it’ll blow the slot recommendation out of the water.

***

So what will be the outcome of the 2009 Amateur Draft? Simple. The owners will be pissed, primarily at Boras. As per their CBA, which expires in 2011, a team has control of a player for the first six years of his Major League service time. In half of those years, the player has leverage over his salaries (via arbitration), and the team has the other half. Now there are other factors which can influence things here (e.g. Super Twos), however when a player is given a Major League contract after he is drafted, this changes the leverage considerably. Take Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. He signed a Major League deal with the Indians back in 2002, and the contract didn’t expire until last year. Guthrie wasn’t arbitration eligible, so the team gave him the maximum pay cut, and he’ll make around 600K in 2009.

If Strasburg is to get that six year, 50MM Major League deal, the Nationals would all but certainly push him into their 2010 rotation right out of Spring Training (there’s no sense in paying him that money to remain in the minors.) He’ll serve out his six years, then get another monster deal once he becomes a free agent at the end of his 2015 season. Boras would love this scenario, but in this economy, I think we’re getting a little far ahead of ourselves here… but if this does happen, expect another labor/ownership holdout in 2011.

In case anyone missed the news today, Manny Ramirez finally signed. Frank McCourt and the Dodgers’ brass acquiesced, and gave Manny the money he wanted. He’s getting the 45MM over two years, but less of it is deferred.

Some interesting quotes about the whole thing, and of course my color commentary thereafter:

The mood brightened in sunny, balmy Dodgers camp with the news that Manny Ramirez was on his way into town to continue a Dodgers career that could not have begun more auspiciously. Quirky, funny Manny isn’t due in until Thursday, after he completes a full physical Wednesday in L.A., but his peppy personality was already seen in some teammates who were just happy to hear they weren’t going to have to fend for themselves.

In case anyone figured, that was CNN’s Jon Heyman. He is to Manny as Chris Matthews is to Barack Obama. Actually I’m not sure if that’s the best analogy, but he’s been the official mouth piece in regards to this contract saga.

I’m glad to see that many other people are starting to see this Heyman/Scott Boras tie, originally brought up by Baseball Analysts’ Rich Lederer. This is from the RotoWorld blurb last night, when the contract talks were starting to converge:

That’s ESPN speak for “we blew it, but we’re going to do our best not to admit it.” It’s probably only a matter of time until something does get done here, and we’ll trust SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the unofficial mouthpiece of Boras Corp., to have the scoop.

Manny then chimed in on the whole saga:

I cannot control what people might think … The economy is making everyone adjust. I will be happy to play for L.A., win and win a couple Gold Gloves just like Andruw Jones.

Wow. Thank god this is finally over.

…does that mean he’ll be signing soon? The last time I did this, Jason Varitek then signed his one year, 5MM deal. In either case, the other Scott Boras client apparently got another offer from the Dodgers this afternoon:

From what I understand, though, there WON’T be a deal tonight. The offer is a two-year, $45 million contract, with salaries of $25 million the first year and $20 million the second, but the second year is a PLAYER option so Manny can walk away if he believes he can get more on the open market next winter. If he is injured during the first season, the second year becomes guaranteed. Boras and Co. have taken it under advisement, and the club is expecting a response early tomorrow.

Essentially they combined the one year, 25MM offer the team made a month back and added a player option onto it (for 20MM), pushing this puppy to 45MM (potentially) over two years. As you recall, Ned Colletti made the exact same offer back in November. In other words, I’m seeing little deviation in the offers to Man Ram.

If Boras maintains his “hold down this fort approach", this permutation of offer #1 with offer #2 will be handled the same way as the prior ones were: in front of a firing squad. In all fairness, Manny is an idiot for leaving this money on the table. He will be paid more during the two years with the Dodgers than he would had he shut up in Boston and played out the final two option years (each at 20MM a piece, assuming they were vested of course.) But then again, as we’ve been witnessing all off season, this is just Manny being Manny.

Attention Late Innings readers! We have breaking news regarding MannyBManny:

Ramirez, Dodgers closer, but deal still not imminent

Now, going from what I read from Rich Lederer about Boras and his clients, he uses Jon Heyman as his means for communication, or as he put it, his personal “mouthpiece.” Granted the free agent market has “moved” slightly in the past few days, if you count the deals for Orlando Hudson and Joe Crede as blockbusters. Still movement is movement, and Boras is simply using his advertising arm (e.g. Heyman) to drum up support for his (currently largest) unsigned client.

Seriously. Let’s translate this “breaking” story:

Dodgers have done some compromising in recent days, according to people familiar with the negotiations, as the two sides seem to now understand that they aren’t going to get exactly what they want in a potential deal.

In other words the two parties probably haven’t met. Boras gave Heyman a call and told him to get his ass to work; Manny is seeing reality and is scared. Moving on:

But as to whether the Dodgers ultimately get Ramirez, well, that remains uncertain, even now as spring has sprung.

It’s all but certain that the Dodgers will get Manny. We’re the audience here Heyman, and there’s a bad case of dramatic irony heading our way…

Ramirez has to understand by now he isn’t getting a four-year deal (nor certainly five or six), and the Dodgers probably know that their offers of $45 million over two years or $25 million over one year aren’t going to get it done, either.

Translation. Boras saw that he could only get 2MM for Crede when he was hoping to get 7MM. He saw that Garrett Anderson only got 2.5MM. He’s not stupid, he read the writing on the wall. The market for a bad fielding corner outfielder is dry, especially with Jim Edmonds still on it. Boras is simply rattling the saber here. He knows that no other team will pony up 25MM for Boras, but he’s still trying to remain on the offensive with the Dodgers.

There are indications the sides may be slightly closer. But that doesn’t mean they are close.

We are still where we were back when the Dodgers made their 25MM one year offer. Boras is clearly struck with a case of temerity here.

As recently as a few days ago, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, perhaps in a fit of frustration, was said to be telling friends he just might fly to Pensacola, Fla. to confront the Man-child himself.

Most baseball people believe a Dodgers deal will eventually get done for Ramirez. But both sides appear fairly firm in their beliefs.

As I stated earlier, it will happen, but when…

The Giants are the only other team known to be in the bidding, and perhaps discouraged after being ripped for giving Edgar Renteria $18.5 million over two years, they’ve stated many times that they aren’t up for a bidding war. Even so, their presence may provide Ramirez the resolve he needs to hang tough.

Translation: there goes the “competition"… oh shit! Panic time yet?

The Dodgers, who always prefer short-term deals anyway, say they are willing to make Ramirez the second- or third-highest paid player in the game despite a dreadful economy. But so far they seem to be stubborn about sticking to a deal of one or two years. Ramirez can counter by pointing out that he saved the team last year by reinvigorating the franchise, hitting a ton (.396 with 53 RBIs in 53 games, and an outrageous .520 in October) and leading them into the NLCS after coming to a .500 team. He knows the Dodgers aren’t the same without him. But is that enough leverage?

Turn to Stats 3:16 … another reading from the Book of Manny, as written by Boras (publisher Simon Schuster.) This is when Ned Colletti should offer him a one year, 15MM deal to put Boras in his place. Again, it’ll be the best offer on the table.

The market has been dreadful, especially of late. And since Oliver Perez signed with the Mets for $36 million over three years, none of the stars to sign has even broken the $10 million per year barrier. Excellent players such as Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson signed for $5 million and $3.38 million guaranteed.

Translation, Boras is losing sleep big time, and he ran out of Tylenol PM. He saw that the market is correcting itself, and Manny’s number is about to be called.

However, Ramirez’s case is somewhat different in that he affects the team on the field and at the gate (though owners will dispute the claim that he pays for himself, especially if he’s making north of $20 million). It’s true he needs a job. But, as one competing executive pointed out, “They need him, too.'’ Ramirez is a prideful and patient guy, not to mention a fellow who doesn’t especially treasure spring training.

Boras in other words is starting to get desperate. The Dodgers “need” Manny…

The negotiations, already difficult thanks to the determination of Ramirez and agent Scott Boras, a down economy and an owner who isn’t exactly flush with cash, also have the hurdle of the recent history between McCourt and Boras. Their latest dealings include at least three tough outcomes in fairly high-profile cases: the failure to sign top draft choice Luke Hochevar, the opt-out decision by outfielder J.D. Drew and the free-agent signing of Andruw Jones, an unmitigated $36.2 million disaster from Day 1 due to Jones’ bad shape and underperformance.

The mouthpiece throws up a little reverse psych in an attempt to shake up Colletti. Highlighting bad deals to show the brilliance of giving Manny a monster deal? Don’t do it! Stay strong Ned! Never give in! Never give up! Remain steadfast homeboy!

However, Boras and the Dodgers have gotten past that history to make two deals this winter, one a minor-league deal for veteran pitcher Jeff Weaver, the other an unusual separation agreement for Jones. So any belief that the hard feelings will prevent a deal is unfounded.

Here’s a look at some of the other better remaining free agents …

blah blah blah. The mouthpiece goes on to prattle through some other remaining free agents available, mainly to show that it’s slim pickins’ after Manny.

***

Heyman is trying to sell Manny with the same manner as George W. Bush sold the bailout, and Barack Obama sold the stimulus. That is we need to move fast and get THIS THING DONE! AND GET IT DONE NOW!

If I was Ned Colletti, I’d just sit back and laugh and wait it out, until Manny and Boras come begging to your door for that 25MM offer. They have no other offers, there are no “mystery teams” here. It’s down to the Dodgers and Manny. The ball is in the Dodgers’ court, and they have all the time in the world. Manny will agree to them on their terms.

This case is the 2009 equivalent of the Kyle Lohse situation, where he held out until the end of the 2008 Spring Training, signing a one year deal out of desperation with the Cardinals. Manny will sign, it’ll be in March and it’ll be with the Dodgers. Period. We know how this thing will end. There’s no need to rush through things. The only thing on a collision course after all of this is Jon Heyman’s journalism.

As in the following:

It didn’t take Manny Ramirez long to turn thumbs-down on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ latest attempt to bring him back to Chavez Ravine.

Just hours after the Dodgers offered him a one-year, $25 million contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in baseball and the highest-paid outfielder in baseball history, Ramirez and agent Scott Boras informed the team late Monday night that they’d rejected that offer.

Everyone knows that Scott Boras spurred the two year, 45MM offer from the Dodgers. And it apparently didn’t take Manny and Boras long to shoot down this offer. Honestly, I’m waiting to the Dodgers to simply “move on.” If that’s the case, will Boras get his client the four year, 100MM offer (or six years, 150MM according to Jon Heyman?)

There are tons of options that the Dodgers can use to fill their outfield holes, both internally and on the free agent market. And Manny, the more he shoots down, the less he’s likely to get. I understand that Boras enjoys getting his client long term deals, since that’ll free up his time for subsequent seasons. However I’m now excited to see what Boras will get his client, with the Dodgers and Yankees (can’t sign anymore Type A free agents) out of the picture. Sooner or later, Boras is going to have to settle for his client who’s on the wrong side of 35…

Seriously.

According to a baseball source, the deadline by which (Jason) Varitek must accept or decline the Red Sox’ latest contract offer is set for 8:30 a.m. Friday, leaving less than a day for the matter to play out. According to the same source, Varitek is seriously considering the option of sitting out the 2009 season and/or retiring rather than accepting the contract offer made to him last week.

In that proposal, the Red Sox gave Varitek the choice of a one-year contract for a guaranteed $5 million or a one-year deal for $5 million with a vesting option. In the latter scenario, Varitek would earn another $5 million if the team exercises the option for 2010, and $3 million if the option is exercised by the player.

I wrote about this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Players who love the game are taking pay cuts left and right, including Jon Garland (~5MM), Mark Kotsay (~7MM), Andy Pettite (~10MM), and Pat Burrell (~5MM.) And even though Federal Interest rates are at 0%, deflation is still hitting the baseball world hard, being in “the worst economic times since the Great Depression” and all.

Varitek and Boras need to get out of their bubble. He should be happy that the club has offered them two contracts. However common sense dictates that there is no market whatsoever for an aging catcher coming off a .220, 73 OPS+ season. It’s that simple. A 5MM contract for those numbers is an incredibly generous offer on behalf of the Red Sox. It’s a shame that “the captain” and “the super agent” can’t figure this out. Seriously.

Too much caffeine has me up late this evening. Any ways Jack Marshall has a piece up on THT, notably about super agent Scott Boras. It’s definitely a piece worth reading. Any ways I wanted to chime in about two of his clients, Carlos Beltran and Bernie Williams:

Scott Boras has over 60 major league clients, and most of them are not free agents. But unwaivable conflicts can arise with these as well. Several years ago, Boras client Bernie Williams was trying to hold on to his job as the New York Yankee center fielder, and Boras free agent client Carlos Beltran was eager to play center field in New York. He ended up signing with the Mets. Boras was ready to negotiate with the Yankees as well, evidently—ethically, he had to be, or he would not be serving Beltran’s interests. But if he was successful bargaining with the Yankees on behalf of Beltran, he would have been simultaneously sabotaging Williams, negotiating him out of a job. One way or the other, he was conflicted.

Keep in mind that this was back at the end of the 2004 season. Beltran was coming of a mammoth walk-year, hitting 38 bombs with the Royals and the Astros. His postseason was also torrid, as the team took their NLCS against the Cardinals to Game 7 (they later made the World Series the following year.) In either case, Beltran was a free agent and the Yankees were on the verge of signing him (ridiculously close), to a contract worth 96MM. However as Marshall pointed out, the Yankees already had a declining center fielder under a seven year, 87MM deal. This little conflict of interest played itself out a little longer. In the process, Boras was able to net his client another 20MM from the Mets (I’m sure George Steinbrenner wishes that he had Beltran in the outfield right now regardless.)

Granted Williams’ stats were clearly on the decline at that time, however Boras played the strong economy to his favor and got Beltran more money thereafter. Now obviously the economic climate has changed, and it’s interesting to think if Boras could be able to pull a hat trick like this again, or anytime soon… it’s interesting to note that Williams is mulling a comeback, as mentioned a couple of days ago on mlb.com.

Before I start this little “see I told you so", I want to pay some great props to the ever exciting Roto Professor. He interviewed Baltimore Sun beat writer Jeff Zrebiec about what’s in store for the Orioles. As a Baltimore fan, these questions were fun to read…

***

Any ways we’re about a month or so after the arbitration offers were handed out by the teams to their Type ( A | B ) free agents. Granted there was some oversight on both sides. Bobby Abreu is still fighting for a three year, 48MM contract (fat chance dawg.) Maybe the Yankees should have offered him arbitration… any ways on to the other end of things, we’ve been having to hear about the poverty cases that are developing by the players who turned down their offers of arbitration. Notably this list includes Type A free agents Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and everyone’s favorite captain, Jason Varitek.

Sucka.

I’ve talked about the Varitek situation before, and I predicted the fallout weeks back about it. However now we’re starting to see this story envelope itself out to the financial markets… from Blogging Stocks today:

Varitek’s decision to reject the offer of arbitration probably cost him upwards of $5 million – maybe closer to $10 million.

Here’s the question: Why didn’t Varitek just accept arbitration and avoid this whole predicament? According to MLB.com: “Varitek was not aware that teams would have to surrender a No. 1 Draft pick to sign him, and he takes full responsibility for his decision.”

The moral of the story: Understand contracts and offers before you accept or reject them! And fire your agent if he doesn’t do a better job educating you. . . .

Wait…wait…wait…wait… so you’re telling me that Varitek didn’t know about the issue of draft pick compensation? Varitek is a smart guy, and he’s represented by an even smarter fellow in Scott Boras. However I’m pretty much sure that Boras brought up the issue with Varitek many times. And I’m pretty much sure that Boras told his client that a Jorge Posada-sized contract awaited him this offseason, which was four years in excess of 52MM.

Yeah hindsight is clearly 20/20. The catcher market (thanks to the Texas Rangers) is saturated. And as we’re starting to see, teams would rather sign a backup like Henry Blanco or Brad Ausmus than spend the money (and the first round draft pick) on Varitek. Varitek should have took that one year offer from the Red Sox. But he didn’t… and now we have to watch the PR disaster cover up from the Scott Boras Corporation. Apparently AIG isn’t the only one requesting a bailout here…

The Brewers signed Prince Fielder this evening to a two year contract for 18MM. He was clearly unhappy last year when the front office renewed his contract for a paltry 670K (he could have gotten the league minimum by the way.) Terms aren’t quite known yet, however if the two parties split their differences with this deal and Fielder got 7MM in 2009, then he’ll get 11MM in 2010. I’m not sure if Scott Boras could negotiate any better than that.

I tried to pick a local story to get some opinion from, and this is the best that I can get:

The Brewers avoid going to the arbitration table with Fielder and won’t have to deal with infamous agent Scott Boras for two years.

Case in point. Negotiating with Boras is a bitch, and as we’ve seen recently, he’s cool with letting his clients ink up to two years in value (e.g. Matt Holiday), especially since we’re currently in a recession and market values won’t have much of an impact of that short period of time. As long as Boras lets his client graduate into the free agency pasture as quickly as he can, then everyone will be happy.

Baring any Nick Markakis-type contract extension, Fielder will become a free agent after the 2011 season.

I remember reading Baseball Weekly about ten years ago, and they had a piece in there about the “super agents” (I had this thing delivered to my parents’ place, back when it was only $0.75 an issue.) Any ways at this time, mammoth deals were being struck between players and teams. Alex Rodriguez getting 251MM from the Rangers, Derek Jeter getting 189MM from the Yankees, Manny Ramirez getting 160MM from the Red Sox, et al. I forget who the writer was (it might have been Bob Nightengale), however they portrayed the lives of the two super agents, who at the time were Scott Boras and Jeff Moorad.

Moorad with 2008 Presidential Candidate John McCain (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Boras had an impressive list of clients under his stable, however at the time so did Moorad (Matt Williams, Will Clark, et al.) Any ways long story short, Moorad took an executive position with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2004, and has since resigned as of this weekend. The reason why, he’s taking an ownership stake with the San Diego Padres (a divorce precipitated this team’s sale.)

Any ways long story short, my how the tables have turned. It’ll be interesting to see how Moorad deals with a number of things, from the team’s payroll constraints, to their GM Kevin Towers, to the rising salaries of his up-and-coming stars like Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez (his bargain contract is about to be up.) And of course, there’s the whole Jake Peavy saga. Personally I’m glad to see this happen. Padres fans need an owner who will bring a resurgent commitment to the team.

The Latest Brian Roberts Rumor

I wanted to chime in on one more rumor, spread around by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles and White Sox are talking trade for their (2007 All Star) second baseman Brian Roberts. The name that was brought up by Andy MacPhail was Gavin Floyd, a Maryland native who won 17 games with the White Sox in 2008. Ken Williams and the White Sox want to trade the two players straight up, however I expect MacPhail to ask for two more players at least. Floyd’s 2008 win total essentially doubled his career total in parts of four other seasons.

Granted I would love to see this deal, I know Floyd’s potential. Roberts is a free agent in 2009, Floyd is under team control for four more years (being arbitration eligible through his 2010-2012 seasons.) Roberts would essentially need an extension on Chicago’s end, and as Roch mentioned, the Orioles could then ask for their top Triple A second baseman Chris Getz. The White Sox are deep with middle infielders in their system, especially after drafting Gordon Beckham last summer.

So long story short, if I was MacPhail and I was offered four years of Floyd and six years of Getz for one of Roberts (plus Roberts’ 8MM salary coming off the books for 2009), would I make this trade? It would be an easy call for me, but knowing MacPhail he’d probably get Williams to throw in two more minor league players, much like how he did with the Erik Bedard and Ramon Hernandez deals. In other words, it’ll take three or four players built around Floyd to get one year of Roberts. Lunatic yes, but then again that’s how MacPhail rolls. And as an O’s fan I couldn’t be any happier.

Warning: the following post is political, and is mildly baseball-related. If this does not interest you, I recommend You Porn.

I was about to write about this yesterday, but got too drunk, and this post was getting heavily partisan (Rush Limbaugh would have been proud.) Any ways tonight I’m completely sober, and can coherently express this a little better. Long story short, I voted for John McCain. Honestly I didn’t like either of the two (main) candidates, however I thought my state was much closer than it was, so I made the choice that I did (note that the networks called Pennsylvania for Obama with 1% of the precincts reporting.)

Obama has been in the news heavily of late, and especially in the baseball world as well. Obama is still undecided as to where he’ll throw the MLB first pitch next year, and he’ll probably be doing it in Chicago for the White Sox (Clinton and Bush did it in Camden Yards for so many years…) Obama is also planning on making baseball relevant in the Olympics again, something I like (even if it involves shutting down the season for two weeks.) I like the fact that Obama is a sports fan (and actually wants a College Football Playoff system established.) However the other issues he believes in made me cast against him. The main reason why: taxes.

Joe the Plumber’s new decision involves choosing between Cliff Lee and Aaron Harrang for his fantasy rotation (WP.)

The one story that was on the front pages all across the country was the one of how agents are worried about the new tax hikes that Obama wants to put in place in January. The one area that everyone is speculating is that he’ll raise the top bracket from the 35% (where Bush lowered it) to 39.6% (where it was under Bill Clinton.) Granted this might seem like pocket change to someone like Manny Ramirez, who just received a contract offer with the second-highest average salary ever, however as the article states this tax will impact someone even harder: small businesses. Now what businesses are considered small businesses?

Enter Scott Boras, the most notorious sports agent known to man. He wrote the book on Oliver Perez (literally), and does whatever he can to help his clients receive the best offer both in terms of compensation and playing environment. Boras, a former player, is very wealthy. He also owns a small business, the Scott Boras Corporation, a “small business” which employs roughly around 100 employees of various skills and talents. It’s clear that his “small business” earns more than 250,000 per year. Case in point, he’ll get 10% off Alex Rodriguez’s record 275MM contract alone. While Boras’ employees might be eligible for an Obama “tax cut” (whatever that exactly means), their boss himself will be hit hard.

Granted Mark Teixeira is a free agent, and he could net a contract of around 20MM this year, so the tax hike for him won’t be an issue. However look at the college players available in next year’s Amateur Draft. Most of these kids come from middle class families, however when they receive their 4MM or so first-round pick signing bonus… You get the picture; another area the Obama tax hike will hit.

Peter Schmuck brought up the point about this, and discussed Rafeal Palmeiro, who left the Orioles and signed for the Rangers. The Orioles offered more money, however Texas has lower taxes, and the net effect of moving there would be the same as staying in Baltimore. I’m not saying that players are motivated by money, but taxation does play a role in free agency and where players decide to go. If Teixeira stays and lives in California to continue to play for the Angels, he’ll have a 10% state income tax for starters (and governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is threatening to raise taxes again.) Teixeira might opt to move east (and take a smaller contract) to some place like Baltimore, where the cost of living is much cheaper than on the West Coast.

Any ways, to read the news, I understand that Obama’s taxes won’t affect the players that much (the best quote I saw was “they’ll get by.") However what the news won’t tell is that these taxes will hit two groups: small businesses representing the agents, and the players drafted next June. As to what will happen, we don’t know. However if anything, we can expect total compensation for contracts to rise going forward. Naturally this is the easiest way to offset a tax increase, outside of passing the costs onto the consumer.

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?