Late Innings

I thought this was an interesting story to come up today, an interesting Opening Day indeed. Seattle’s first round draft picks from the last three drafts, that is Brandon Morrow (2006), Phillippe Aumont (2007) and Joshua Fields (2008), could all find themselves in the M’s bullpen by the end of the season. Granted I know that Morrow and Aumont were drafted as starters, but Bill Bavasi and the team’s scouting department grabbed Fields in hope of him being their future closer. They’re all outstanding arms, don’t get me wrong, however it’s interesting that these three prospects ended up in the same situation. Morrow is the team’s closer going forward (due to a diabetes issue), and these two complementing arms could constitute an excellent bullpen in Seattle. Another unexpected consequence of the Bavasi administration…

Updating Sabathia

I’m watching the O’s/Yanks currently, and Baltimore has plated three runs against the Yankees’ 161MM man C.C. Sabathia. Jeremy Guthrie looks very sharp, and apparently has shaken off his rough Spring. It’s a shame that Cliff Lee couldn’t do the same thing himself today…

It’s official, Brett Gardner has won the Yankees’ center fielder job. This will clearly cut into at bats for Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Gardner didn’t get on base much, but he can run, and plays solid defense. His power display this Spring possibly contributed to this title, however I doubt it’ll hold over the season. Cabrera also made a strong case this spring as well, but he’s suddenly a candidate to be traded.

2009 Projection: .265 AVG, 500 AB, 134 H, .315 OBP, .345 SLG, 3 HR, 27 SB

Gardner could possibly get 500 AB, he could get 200 AB, depending on the mood of the day from the Hank Steinbrenner. I’m leaning on the prior case. In either case, he’ll be buried somewhere near the bottom of the lineup, and rightfully so. The best team however would have Derek Jeter in center field. But due to political reasons, that’s not going to happen, leaving the Yankees with one expensive bench.

Gardner is the mirror image of the White Sox’s Jerry Owens, though Garnder brings a better stick to the plate.

Bobby Abreu’s 2009 salary continues to keep halving itself:

A Mets official did not rule out signing free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, but indicated that any contract likely would have to be for one year at less than $4 million. Abreu, 34, hit .296 with 20 homers and 100 RBI for the Yankees last season.

When the season ended, Abreu was making 16MM. He was hoping to get a three year, 48MM deal. He held on that for months. As of a few weeks ago, he cut his demands in half, looking for a one year, 8MM deal. Now it’s down to 4MM… nothing against Abreu. His defense is horrible, but if he plays as a DH, he’d be worth a good two runs above replacement. Someone is sure to grab him as that price continues to plummet.

I have very much in common with the Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Actually no I don’t. I want to keep this short and sweet however. I saw the CNN post come up over the weekend about his alleged steroid accusations, and today he finally admitted it. Rodriguez told ESPN’s Peter Gammons that he took the ‘roids between ‘01 and ‘03. In other words he drank the “high octane” coffee.

My stance on this story is to avoid it, which I’m not doing now. I talked very little about the Mitchell Report when it broke last December, and I’ll refrain from talking about the Rodriguez story after this post. Besides, the MSM is talking about this thing ad nauseum, much how they did a year and change ago about the names listed in the Mitchell Report. My closing argument, MLB shouldn’t have let this get out. Period, they didn’t do their job. Now I have to live with the most disgusting point here… that Jose Canseco was right about everything… yuck.

…still too fucking expensive:

Abreu is now backing off of his demands of $16 million per year. Instead, he is willing to accept a deal around $10-11 million over three years.

MLBTR thinks that this could now bring the Dodgers, Reds or Braves into the mix, but cautions that they may all still balk at even $10 million.

While teams were scooping up bad fielding sluggers to fill their DH positions (sans Raul Ibanez), Abreu was demanding 18MM a year. Now that all of the 14 DH spots are essentially filled, Abreu cut his demands in half. According to the Fielding Bible, Abreu was ranked a -24, the fourth worst defensive outfielder. In other words teams should pay him just to hit… and with Adam Dunn, Garrett Anderson and others still on the market, Abreu might have to cut his demands in half again. He should have been asking for Milton Bradley money a month ago, back when Bradley was still on the market.

My guess, he’ll ink a one year deal with some team for 6MM in 2009. And my guess… it’s the Yankees.

I recall a piece from last week on ESPN, essentially complaining about how the Yankees can throw their weight around and sign whomever. Take it if you may, but it did require that they in fact throw another 20MM and a seventh year at C.C. Sabathia, that’s what it required to get it done. A.J. Burnett? Again it took a fifth year and 17MM a year to get him pinstripes. So now there’s one key name left on the market, and there are potentially four teams left bidding for Mark Teixeira. So my question here is, why leave out the Yankees, like everyone is apparently doing?

If it wasn’t for the Yankees, Sabathia would have had to settle on 21MM a year. Burnett would have been lucky to get 14MM per. However unlike last year, they’re here to play, and the MLB Players Union (and Derek Lowe for that matter) can’t be any more grateful.

There was a story today on ESPN today about how the Orioles are suddenly likely to sign Teixeira. There were also rumors a plenty over the weekend about how Tex was in Baltimore over the weekend to watch the Steelers defeat the Ravens. A lot of fans in the area are anxious (me included) as well as excited about the possibility of Teixeira signing with his hometown team, the Orioles. My advice, I expect the Yankees to be late players.

Baltimore has been frugal with its cash since Andy MacPhail took helm, however one expensive investment that I would support would be signing Teixeira. He would bring much more value than just being on the field. His defense is extraordinary, he can hit, and he would be exactly what the Orioles need. Then again the same theory applies to the Nationals, and to the Angels, and as many other people are saying, to the Yankees as well.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

According to Joel Sherman in the New York Post, free agent pitcher C.C. Sabathia agrees in principle to a six year, 140MM deal with the New York Yankees.

The model to remember here folks: money always talk, unless you’re of course Craig Calcaterra.

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

It seems that every free agent predictor I recently saw had free agent C.C. Sabathia receiving a contract of total compensation of 140MM. Personally I pinned him at 143MM back in August, but that was over seven years. The official offer from the Yankees has it at 140MM over six.

Sabathia and the Yankees makes sense, especially considering how they lost out on Johan Sanatana last winter. This is the move that everyone saw from day one, and Sabathia is about to become a Yankee. I highly doubt that his side will submit a counter-offer to the Yankees, especially since 140MM is tough to top. Besides, the last thing Sabathia would want is for the Yankees to withdraw the offer (hence the push from the MLB Players Union on him to sign this deal.)

This signing should go down this week sometime. Honestly I like it. I expected it. Sabathia is good and the Yankees will have him in his prime. LeBron James is estatic with this move, and Doug Melvin is depressed. I understand that Sabathia’s camp referred to the Brewers’ offer (supposed 5 years, 100MM) as “window dressings", but at least he made the effort to keep him in uniform. There’s not much left for him to do now except for to take the draft picks and move on.

So here we are. The Yankees are moving swift and quickly to completely make over this team. Sabathia is a good start, and I loved the Nick Swisher trade (what a steal.) As to who will be the next starter that the Yankees haul in, my guess is Derek Lowe. It’s fitting, since Lowe is the top target that the Red Sox want this winter as well.

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?

The MLB postseason awards were handed out a little early. Saturday morning, the cops pulled over Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain and handed him a new award of his own. No, no, no, he didn’t receive Rookie of the Year (sorry Evan Longoria), however he received something a little different: a D.U.I.

From what my friends say, these things suck. Hopefully he’ll get good legal representation. Some of the things he was charged for aside from the intoxication, driving with an open container. Ouch. I’ve personally never gotten a D.U.I., and since I’ve got my own place, I probably won’t have to worry about doing that, since I found out that it’s so much cheaper (and safer) to drink at home. That’s why I’m hanging out with my good friend Johnnie Walker this fine Sunday morning.

Taking a page from the Paris Hilton playbook…

The reason why I’m drinking this early, the Rays couldn’t seal the deal. The Nation is advancing to a game seven. Wow…

As we all know by now, both teams from Gotham City failed to make the playoffs. At least one New York team has been in the playoffs since 1995. So now that we know the problem, what can these two teams do to get themselves back into the postseason? For starters, both teams have cash and are entirely liquid, especially from playing in the largest media market. Both teams also have a good amount of dead cash coming off the books in November. Fixing the Mets would be a whole new story, however let’s look at fixing the Yankees. I know that they play in the toughest division in baseball, however they’re a very few number of moves away from pushing themselves back up as a dangerous force.

If I’m Brian Cashman, fixing the Yankees should involve the following three things (in no real order):

1. Improve defense.
2. Create an offense which gets on base (improve OBP.)
3. Stabalize the starting pitching.

The first two points can be done rather easily, especially if Cashman inks Mark Teixiera to a large contract, and lets Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu walk. Personally I think that Brett Gardner can handle the job in center. That .228 average might look bad, but he got white hot at the end of the season, finishing with a ten game hitting streak. And given the four outfield assists he had in such limited play, his defense would clearly be a plus. That .289 OBP of his is sure to improve.

The Yankees would be wise to keep Gardner in center, instead of pursuing Nate McClouth. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

However, the main area of concern for the Yankees going into the Winter should be their starting pitching. I’m projecting a rotation of the following:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chein Mein Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite

Great staff on paper, and they’d still have Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Darrell Rassner available as backups. I read through Jon Heyman’s piece today, and he’s projecting two of the three to sign with the Yankees: Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett. Wow, that could get expensive. However, think how dangerous this team could be in 2009.

So obviously they can’t sign everyone. In that case who would walk? Mussina could go, but he stabilized their rotation in 2008, winning 20 games and pitching 200 innings. People in Baltimore are speculating that he could return home as well, and isn’t too crazy of an idea. Pettite had a down year himself, and he probably won’t get 16MM again.

In either case, adding Sabathia and Teixiera would add ten wins to the Yankees, a team that didn’t meet expectations by only winning 89 games in 2008. Adding Lowe or Burnett could push their 2009 win total over triple digits. In other words, this is how close the Yankees are to being a dangerously good team.

I can’t remember how many times in the past two years where we’ve heard interjections between the Steinbrenners and either Joe Torre or Brian Cashman. I can recall the 2007 playoffs, where George Steinbrenner came out and essentially said Torre’s ass was grass unless they advance past Cleveland. That obviously didn’t happen, they were gone in the first round in 2007, and Torre ultimately took an offer to manage the Dodgers.

Yes it is ironic that Torre is now in the playoffs, and the Yankees failed to make it (for the first time since 1996 nonetheless.) The reasons why they didn’t make it in 2008 were NOT Brian Cashman’s fault.

I’m obviously writing this because the Steinbrenner brothers inked Cashman to a three year deal this evening. Cashman simply put is an outstanding GM, one of the best. I’ve always respected the work he’s done, and assembling a team with an essentially infinite budget is not as easy as it seems.

Earlier this year, Hank Steinbrenner gave the word that they’ll be spending money this offseason, and return to the true Yankee way. There’s no reason to believe that they won’t. They have over 80MM in “toxic” assets coming off the books in November. Players such as Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettite, Mike Mussina and Ivan Rodriguez are free agents. Some will return, though not at the salaries they were paid in 2007 (Mussina is a close bet to be paid the same as what he was.)

What the Yankees need to do is evaluate the free agents and see who would be the best fits. I made my suggestions, and I feel as though they should sign C.C. Sabathia (especially since they lost out on Johan Santana.) They should offer salary arbitration to all of their Type A free agents as well, and collect the supplemental draft picks that are offered to them after (and if) they leave. The team has been drafting poorly of late. This is one way to address that problem. The other way, improve international scouting.

Back in July, I honestly thought that the Yankees would be a playoff team in 2008. The reason why, it’s simple: Joba Chamberlain. It seems that once he went down, all the energy and momentum that this team had seemed to evaporate. Having young pitching is a good thing, relying on it too heavily is not. I have no doubt that Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes (who pitched very well in his last start of the season) will be solid parts of the Yankees’ rotation in the future, however Cashman should bring in a veteran starter or two to stabilize the rotation and provide competition. Chein Mein Wang is back, and Mussina and Pettite should hopefully be back as well. Pitching is crucial, and bringing in someone like Sabathia would be clearly huge here.

I honestly expect the Yankees to be back in the playoff picture in 2009. What happened to them this year was a fluke. They were be riddled with injuries, including Wang, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez. Still they still are a solid core. A few more parts and they could be deadly. In closing I like the Cashman signing. I also like what Boston did with Theo Epstein and what the Mets did with Omar Minaya, that is by locking up each long term. It’s an interesting strategy. These GMs are under constant pressure all season long simply due to the markets that they play in. By doing these moves, hopefully some of the pressure is alleviated.