Late Innings

I’ll cut right to the chase, I disagree with Joe Posnanski:

7. Alex Rios (Chicago White Sox). I originally had this as the second-worst contract in the game … but that was blowing this out of proportion. Several readers make the strong point that it really is not THAT bad, and I’m probably overreacting to the off-season he’s having now. Either way, this is the third deal where Ricciardi has hit the ejector button in the middle of the contract (B.J. Ryan and Frank Thomas coming first). At least this one, someone else picked up the tab — and yes, Kenny Williams will now be the one judged on how this contract turns out.

He makes a compelling case against J.P. Ricciardi and him doling out bad contracts. I agree wholehardedly with his claim, that is he handed out some bad deals, notably the Vernon Wells albatross of a contract. However Rios? I actually liked this move on behalf of the White Sox.

Rios has come a long way in his career. When he first came up, people thought that he’d never hit for power, based on the 1 HR that he hit in 2004 (over 426 AB!) His power eventually then started to climb, to the point where he hit 24 HR in 2007. His reward for that season, a seven year, 69MM contract extension, buying out the rest of his arbitration years, as well as some free agency years.

Wells is fast, on pace to steal 30 bases for two years in a row. While his defense is regressing, he might enjoy his move to Chicago. For one, he’ll have some protection in the lineup. And secondly, with him manning center all to himself for the next five years, this deal looks good for the White Sox. Erik Manning agrees.

Ken Williams is by far my favorite GM in all of baseball, simply due to the fact that he takes risks. His moves are always head scratchers (e.g. the Javier Vazquez trade, or the Jake Peavy deal), but this Rios deal is grand theft for the Pale Hoes. If Ricciardi made any mistake, it’s that he let Rios go for free. If the Jays wanted to dump salary, he should have sold him Wells instead.

So how about it, the White Sox get a 30-30 man in center for five years. What’s wrong with that? Yes his numbers are down this year, but I expect them to return. If Posnanski wanted to include a bad contract to his list, why didn’t he mention Torii Hunter? Speaking of aging center fielders with little upside, Hunter’s got 60MM coming to him over the next three years from the Angels. Coupled with his new injuries, it’s a shame that Bill Stoneman and company didn’t take out an insurance policy on their center fielder.

I did this back before, when there were oddly enough two Ryan Bruans in the majors. I wanted to do the same thing back when there were two Bobby Joneses pitching as well. In either case, there are a pair of Josh Fieldses in the majors, one is a closing prospect for the Mariners, the other is a third baseman for the White Sox.

Starting with the infielder, Peter Gammons of ESPN said the following about the slugging infielder:

Josh Fields hit 23 homers in 100 games for the White Sox in 2007, but his 2008 season was a waste because of right knee problems. The former Oklahoma State quarterback finally gave in and had knee surgery. He also underwent LASIK eye surgery, and he claims it has made a significant difference in seeing the ball this spring as he opens the season at third base.

Surgery will quite possibly help him somewhat, however it was the departure of Joe Crede that played the most to his advantage. He’ll go deep from time to time, however the strikeouts will put him in Ozzie Guillen’s dog house from time to time.

2009 Outlook: .255 AVG, 525 AB, 31 HR, 95 RBI, ass-load of strikeouts

He’s set to take in a good chunk of playing time in Chicago this year. Yes, Dayan Viciedo is there to put pressure on him, however Paul Konerko’s struggles could also play in his favor as well.

***

The Mariners (under Bill Bavasi) burnt the 20th overall pick in last year’s Amateur Draft on a closer, drafting Joshua Fields. He signed a month ago, and then at that point people started to speculate as to whether he’ll be closing for the M’s at sometime this year. The big news of today, that’s not going to happen.

I like what David Pinto wrote about this, comparing the situation to the one that Jonathan Papelbon faced a few years ago. Brandon Morrow has ridiculous stuff, and I’ve always wanted to see him as a starter. However given the forearm issues, maybe having him close is the best for both him and the team. Fantasy owners of Morrow must have been happy to hear this news today (he is NOT available in any of my leagues, and is owned in 89% of ESPN’s leagues.) Still this move essentially doomed Fields to remain in the minors for the year. However, the possibility of him being up in September should not be out of the picture at all…

A year ago to yesterday, the Brewers inked the closer of their dreams Eric Gagne to a one year, 10MM deal. He stumbled with the job, saving 10 games, winning 4, while pitching to the ugly tune of a 5.44 ERA, 79 ERA+. Yesterday the Brewers did the same thing, bringing back Gagne, however this time it’s to a minor league contract:

Gagne, a right-handed reliever and once the game’s most dominating closer, agreed on Tuesday to a Minor League contract with Milwaukee … Gagne will earn a $1.5 million base salary if he makes the team, plus up to $3 million more in incentives.

In other words he’ll be making 1.5MM if he makes the team, which is for the most part certain. He won’t be closing thankfully, which is Trevor Hoffman’s job, however if thrown into middle relief duties, he’ll be a serviceable pitcher, even with the glut of candidates that they have available.

In other words, a year ago to yesterday, Gagne signed a two year, 11MM contract. This news reminds me of another pitcher similar to Gagne. In comparing the two:

• Like Gagne, he was signed to a one year deal in 2007 with his new team.
• While Gagne broke out with his new team (16 S, 2.16 ERA, 209 ERA+), this pitcher did just the same (11 S, 3.90 ERA, 120 ERA+.)
• Gagne was dealt to the Red Sox later that summer, and this pitcher was also dealt before the trading deadline for another pitcher (Kyle Davies.)
• After the season, Gagne left Boston for greener pastures, and this pitcher did the same thing, signing a deal with the White Sox.

It doesn’t take too much to know that I’m comparing Gagne to Octavio Dotel, who unlike Gagne had a very solid year for the AL Central champs. Now do I think Gagne will rebound? Of course. I’m curious to see his numbers in the new no-pressure situation, that is unless Hoffman falters.

I remember reading Baseball Weekly about ten years ago, and they had a piece in there about the “super agents” (I had this thing delivered to my parents’ place, back when it was only $0.75 an issue.) Any ways at this time, mammoth deals were being struck between players and teams. Alex Rodriguez getting 251MM from the Rangers, Derek Jeter getting 189MM from the Yankees, Manny Ramirez getting 160MM from the Red Sox, et al. I forget who the writer was (it might have been Bob Nightengale), however they portrayed the lives of the two super agents, who at the time were Scott Boras and Jeff Moorad.

Moorad with 2008 Presidential Candidate John McCain (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Boras had an impressive list of clients under his stable, however at the time so did Moorad (Matt Williams, Will Clark, et al.) Any ways long story short, Moorad took an executive position with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2004, and has since resigned as of this weekend. The reason why, he’s taking an ownership stake with the San Diego Padres (a divorce precipitated this team’s sale.)

Any ways long story short, my how the tables have turned. It’ll be interesting to see how Moorad deals with a number of things, from the team’s payroll constraints, to their GM Kevin Towers, to the rising salaries of his up-and-coming stars like Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez (his bargain contract is about to be up.) And of course, there’s the whole Jake Peavy saga. Personally I’m glad to see this happen. Padres fans need an owner who will bring a resurgent commitment to the team.

The Latest Brian Roberts Rumor

I wanted to chime in on one more rumor, spread around by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles and White Sox are talking trade for their (2007 All Star) second baseman Brian Roberts. The name that was brought up by Andy MacPhail was Gavin Floyd, a Maryland native who won 17 games with the White Sox in 2008. Ken Williams and the White Sox want to trade the two players straight up, however I expect MacPhail to ask for two more players at least. Floyd’s 2008 win total essentially doubled his career total in parts of four other seasons.

Granted I would love to see this deal, I know Floyd’s potential. Roberts is a free agent in 2009, Floyd is under team control for four more years (being arbitration eligible through his 2010-2012 seasons.) Roberts would essentially need an extension on Chicago’s end, and as Roch mentioned, the Orioles could then ask for their top Triple A second baseman Chris Getz. The White Sox are deep with middle infielders in their system, especially after drafting Gordon Beckham last summer.

So long story short, if I was MacPhail and I was offered four years of Floyd and six years of Getz for one of Roberts (plus Roberts’ 8MM salary coming off the books for 2009), would I make this trade? It would be an easy call for me, but knowing MacPhail he’d probably get Williams to throw in two more minor league players, much like how he did with the Erik Bedard and Ramon Hernandez deals. In other words, it’ll take three or four players built around Floyd to get one year of Roberts. Lunatic yes, but then again that’s how MacPhail rolls. And as an O’s fan I couldn’t be any happier.

Update (10:28 PM): this was supposedly shot down by White Sox officials.

I saw this on RotoWorld tonight, as well as a few other sites. Long story short, apparently Cincinnati traded Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye. Dye will be a free agent after next season, and Bailey is under team control for a good five years with the White Sox.

I’m not sure why the Reds would do this. Granted Dye brings pop, but Bailey is a stud in need of a new environment. Then again this is one of the moves that Kenny Williams makes that nobody knows about. First he got Gavin Floyd, then John Danks. I’m starting to see how the White Sox build their rotations… yes this is a steal on the White Sox’ behalf. Bailey is someone you build a rotation around.

Here’s another link backing this claim. BTBS also contributes here. One more link. This trade is apparently a done deal. Expect this trade to happen early this week, during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

Dye averaged about 33 HR in four seasons with the White Sox (CNN SI.)

Update: The third player might be catching prospect Tyler Flowers, according to Rosenthal. And he mentions that Reyes is not in the trade. We’ll see how this breaks out, but this all but certain ends the Braves’ interest in Jake Peavy.

Here’s the story on ESPN, which just broke minutes ago. It’s a five-player trade:

• White Sox get: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge, “another top prospect”
• Braves get: Vazquez, Boone Logan

I’m not sure what ESPN means by “another top prospect", but I’m all but certain that it’s not Tommy Hanson, who will most likely be in the Braves’ rotation in 2009. You could possibly throw out Jason Heyward as well. Granted assuming the White Sox don’t receive one of those two players, I give the edge to the Braves here. Vazquez doesn’t let hitters make contact with him (about 9 K/9), and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA goes down by a run in the National League. Logan will go right into Bobby Cox’s bullpen.

White Sox GM Ken Williams does have a knack for observing talent, and Reyes and Lillibridge had to have caught his eye. Lillibridge will add more depth to the middle infield, and should mitigate the blow of Orlando Cabrera leaving. And I personally think that Reyes can be a strong starter, especially with the White Sox now having him under team control until 2013.

Update: I’ve gotten an email, stating that he’s “only 19 years old", in given the team’s current options at third, I honestly see him starting at the hot corner as soon as the White Sox breaks camp in April.

When White Sox GM Ken Williams is in the news, it’s usually for something stupid that he did recently. The main reason why he’s being vilified in the news? Simple. He dealt a unique hitter who gets on base in Nick Swisher for pennies on the dime (the ten cent piece of course being Gio Gonzalez, now in Oakland.) Any ways that’s done, in the books, and of course he’ll now make some quiet moves which do not garner to draw any media attention. The main idea that’s going under the rug is the team’s signing of Cuban third-base prospect Dayan Viciedo for a major league deal for four years worth 11MM.

The Cuban “Babe Ruth” averaged 36 HR over the last four seasons. Yikes. (daylife.com)

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Vicideo is the player that Williams targeted for the offseason. He’s a tremendous third base talent who will most likely be given the third base job on Opening Day. I know that’s a bold claim to say, however Alexi Ramirez made the Opening Day roster when he was expected to be in the minors after he signed his four year deal last winter. And of course all Ramirez did was finish second in Rookie of the Year voting to some guy named Evan Longoria, slugging 21 home runs in the process.

When Williams inked Ramirez to his four year, 4.75MM contract, I honestly expected him to be in the minors for a year. However he had a stellar spring, and had me change my mind, where my expectations for him suddenly rose. Ramirez hit 28 HR the year before in Cuba, and those translated well in the American League in 2008.

So where should we project Viciedo? Well let’s start here. He’ll be the team’s opening day third baseman. Joe Crede is leaving as a free agent, and Josh Fields struck out his way into Ozzie Guillen’s dog house. I’ve personally learned to never underestimate Cuban talent, especially when Baltimore and the Cuban national team played many years ago. Viciedo is incredible talent, and many people are lauding Williams for this move. So in summary, Williams stole Carlos Quinten from the Diamondbacks (an oft-injured fourth outfielder so they thought), grabbed the “Cuban Missile” in Ramirez, and now padded his resume with Viciedo. 11MM is a bargain over four years, and I’m projecting a .305/31/105 season from him at the least. I’m not joking or going out on any limbs here. People won’t know this guy in April, yet in July will be talking about him all the time. And in the end, I’ll be right with this projection, just take my word on this one. David Price and Matt Wieters suddenly have some competition for the Rookie of the Year in 2009…

After yesterday’s 4-6 tear, Giants’ catching prospect Buster Posey is “en fuego” in the AFL. He’s currently hitting .515. He was the Giants’ first round pick (#5 overall) in the Amateur Draft this year, and would have been #1 overall by the Rays, had it not been for his supposed demands of a 12MM contract.

In regards to other hot prospects in the AFL, Orioles hurler Brian Matusz (drafted #4 overall) is also dominant. Still if either of these two players make it to the majors next season, I expect it to be Posey. I doubt that Baltimore would rush Matusz to the majors, though if he makes the strong case that might change. Still for Posey to reach the majors, the Giants will need to move Bengie Molina. Molina and his 95 RBI from last year might be a good match for the Mets.

Breaking: Tatis Re-signed

The Mets just re-signed Fernando Tatis for 1.7MM in 2009. Good move, and this all but for the most part eliminates the idea of them signing free agent Raul Ibanez. Tatis hit 11 homers last year, and either projects as a full-time outfielder, or will be featured against lefties. Still he won’t hit 34 homers again, and I thought he wasn’t arbitration eligible until 2010… (Correction, Tatis was a free agent and filed today. I thought he was still under team control.)

Jayson Nix and the White Sox

The White Sox signed Jayson Nix to a major league deal for 2009. He was supposedly an option for the Rockies at second base entering last year, however remained stuck in Triple-A and only hit .303/17/51 with a .964 OPS. Like Alexi Ramirez and Carlos Quinten, this is another excellent, under-the-radar move by Kenny Williams. I’ve always been high on both the Nix brothers (him and outfielder Lance Nix.)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the AL Central, one of the toughest divisions in baseball, is completely out of order. Detroit was expected to be the best team in the division, yet they’ve been poor. Kansas City and Chicago however have been playing well. This post will simply break down each of the teams in this division, and suggest what’s going wrong, and how each team can improve (stats as of 4/15.)

Chicago White Sox— 8-5

What’s been right: Just about everything. The starting pitching has been superb, especially Gavin Floyd (coming off a near no-no) and John Danks (who just threw seven shutout against the Rangers.) The hitting is on a roll too. Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are hitting with new life. Crede, if he continues, could see a Mike Lowell-sized contract coming his way come November.
What’s been wrong: Not much. The team doesn’t have many holes in the bullpen, nor do they do in the rotation (outside of Jose Contreras.) The hitting , though scoring runs aplenty, has been inconsistent at times.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Is this hot start a fluke or for real? It’ll take a few more games to determine whether this White Sox team will win 70 or 90 games this season. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Kansas City Royals— 8-5

What’s been right: The pitching, both bullpen and rotation, has been phenomenal. Joakim Soria, Leo Nunez and Ron Mahay have been lights out, Zack Grenike has been dominant, as has Brian Bannister, who at times has looked like Greg Maddux.
What’s been wrong: The hitting, though promising, has been inconsistent. They can’t solve good pitching yet. There are other rotation questions as well. Brett Tomko has looked good, but many aren’t sure that he’s the long term answer. John Bale also deserves to be in the rotation, and has nice upside, but has had a few rough starts in 2008. Luke Hovechar, the overall pick in the 2006 draft, is ready to be on the pitching staff.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The team, if its pitching remains of highest quality, could be a contender. Any team that’s pitching as well as they are should make the playoffs. However that’s a large “if” right now. Greinke has finally lived up to his promise, and the bullpen is rock solid, but the rest of the rotation needs to stay consistent, especially if they hope to fend off resurgences from Cleveland and Detroit. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Minnesota Twins— 6-7

What’s been right: There have been some surprises in the rotation, particularly Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser. Jason Kubel has also been an offensive force, and Joe Nathan has been lights out.
What’s been wrong: Far too much inconsistency with this team. Michael Cuddyer’s injury hurt, and Justin Morneau hasn’t been producing. The bullpen, outside of Nathan, has been getting hit hard of late.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The Twins will ultimately start clicking on all cylinders soon, but so will the other powers in their division, notably Detroit and Cleveland. They don’t have enough firepower to compete with these teams yet. Adjusted projection: 76 wins.

Cleveland Indians— 5-8

What’s been right: There have been some bright spots in rotation, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook in particular. Victor Martinez and Grady Siezmore are also producing, but that’s about the most that their offense is doing right now.
What’s been wrong: The team is inconsistent on offense, C.C. Sabathia isn’t of form, and their once-reliable bullpen is showing flashes of the 2006 ‘pen’s shaky self. They now have a hole at closer, with Joe Borowski going on the DL after his latest blown save. Rafeal Betancourt should hopefully step in here.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: All the pieces from last season’s championship team are here, and they should figure themselves out by the end of May. Adjusted projection: 91 wins.

Detroit Tigers— 3-10

What’s been right: Their “1,000 run” offense is finally starting to awaken. The Twins just saw it last night, as they watched a nice lead in the eighth evaporate to their potentially dormant offense. Bats like Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez need to awaken. Carlos Guillen has been the only consistent bat.
What’s been wrong: The pitching in whole has been a mess, especially their bullpen. The once-ageless Todd Jones is starting to show some age, and the team wouldn’t mind if Baltimore offered their Rule V pitcher back to them for bullpen help. Detroit needs to make a move, either via trade or move one of its starters to the pen to put out the fire. Rick Porcello shouldn’t be an option this early in his career.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Many people picked the Tigers to represent the American League in the World Series, even with knowing that the bullpen is as bad as its been. The team is talented enough to shake this funk off, however championship teams can’t continuously win 12-10 ball games. Adjusted projection: 87 wins.

For the most part, every team has been finalizing their rosters this weekend before tomorrow’s official Opening Day start. Most teams have their lineups and 25-man rosters set now. In looking at the notable moves from this afternoon:

• Los Angeles (NL): The Dodgers (and Joe Torre) finally did the right thing by benching Juan Pierre (who had a poor Spring) in favor of Andre Either. Either makes much more sense than Pierre, who though hit .293 and stole 63 bases in 2007, doesn’t have much else to offer at the plate. The logical step now is to attempt to move Pierre, who though is owed over 36MM the next four years by the Dodgers.

  Yesterday’s starter Esteban Loaiza, though getting shelled by Boston in yesterday’s high-attendance exhibition game, has the fifth starter job for at least a few months. Clayton Kershaw, though dominant in the Spring, will open the season in Double-A. He should be called up and in their rotation by July.

• Baltimore: The Orioles finally released outfielder Jay Gibbons this afternoon, allowing Scott Moore to have a spot on the team as a utility man. The team will eat 11MM of Gibbons’ contract which runs through 2009.

  In other team news, they assigned outfielder Tike Redman to Triple-A Ottawa. He’ll most likely be up as soon as they can, pending on whether the team can move Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008.

  Also in case anyone is interested, Luis Hernandez is their Opening Day shortstop. He made six errors this Spring, however he’s out of options. It’s a shame that Baltimore doesn’t have any better options at this position.

• New York (NL): The Mets named Mike Pelfrey their fifth starter. He beat out Orlando Hernandez for the spot, though Hernandez had more velocity with a changed delivery in his last start. The team could still acquire a starter (like a Claudio Vargas) since many feel that the Mets don’t believe Pelfrey is the best option now. Still, it doesn’t hurt to see him in the rotation.
• Cincinnati: Manager Dusty Baker finally came out and made the statement that Scott Hatteberg will be the team’s first baseman out of camp instead of rookie Joey Votto. This means that their two top challengers for the Rookie of the Year (Votto and outfielder Jay Bruce) will get to see playing time come middle of the season. At least we’ll get to see what Jonny Cueto will do in their rotation.
• Chicago (AL): The White Sox named Alexi Ramirez as their Opening Day center fielder. He had the best bat in Spring Training, and if he hits as well as he did to open the season, the team will need to find a way to keep him in the lineup once Jerry Ownens returns. It’s a shame that the team didn’t take this same approach with the Joe Crede/Josh Fields situation.

Earlier today, the Chicago White Sox tentatively agreed to terms with free agent reliever Octavio Dotel on a 2yr/11.5MM deal. The rumor of this deal has been out there for a few weeks now, and instead of just breaking down the inline analysis of the deal, I’d rather try to answer the questions that could be arisen from this very odd signing. Overall I don’t mind it, but it does bring a few things to mind.

• How does this move benefit the White Sox? Dotel gives manager Ozzie Guillen another veteran arm to work with Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks to close out games. The White Sox are doing what the Indians and the Orioles did last year, which is attempting to purchase a bullpen after seeing its struggles from the previous season. It worked for the most part with Cleveland and backfired entirely on Baltimore.
• What are some bad things about this signing? There’s nothing overly bad about it. Like the Ron Mahay deal, Chicago could deal Dotel in two years if they’d want to for prospects. Given the fact that they’re going to still push to compete, this move is unlikely. If there was anything that the White Sox could have spent the money on, it’s a left-handed arm to complement Linebrink out of the bullpen. Mike Myers was at times ineffective last season.
• Who were some other teams interested in Dotel? The ones that were also reportedly after him included the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles.
• How come this much money was involved for a middle reliever? Dotel could have went to other teams (like Baltimore) and be given the every day chance to close. By going to Chicago, he’ll be providing insurance in case Bobby Jenks goes down. The main reason he received the money he did is because Dotel has experience closing games. If you have this experience, your salary would jump from standard middle reliever salary (4MM) to this new threshold (5.5MM), which was created from last season’s deal with Dannys Baez. Baez received a contract on average of 6MM per year in hopes that he could close if Chris Ray were to go down.
• Speaking of Baltimore, who will close for them in 2008? Dotel would have fit in nicely with the club, since team president Andy MacPhail is seeking a veteran closer to fill the void left by injuries to Baez and Ray. Manager Dave Trembley could use Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford in that role again, but he’s probably best off keeping them in their traditional seventh and eighth inning slots. Jim Hoey has solid experience closing games in the minors, but struggled in his outings last year with Baltimore. The current front runner for the position is Greg Aquino (a one-time closer a few years back), plucked from the Brewers back in December. Aquino isn’t the best of options, however someone could emerge and save 20 games for the team in 2008; I have no idea who that is though.

In looking at Chicago’s offseason, there have been some good moves (unloading Garland on the Angels) and some bad moves (the Linebrink deal in particular.) Again like the Haren deal, both Oakland and Chicago benefit from the trade. With the deal, Chicago dealt three minor leaguers to the A’s for Swisher.

Chicago is a team that is built to win, now. I’m not saying that will necessarily happen, but the addition of Swisher will definitely help the lineup, as well as protect the other bats in their lineup such as Konerko and Dye. Swisher, whose best year was in 2006 when he clubbed 35 HR, should easily revert back to form. I would say something along the line of .260/30/90 would be what to expect from him for 2008 (Luke Scott numbers.) He’s also young and under contract for some time, so this is a very good move for Chicago. And yes, I do think it was worth it for them to cough up an arm (Fautino De Los Santos) and a leg (Gio Gonzalez), since Swisher’s presence on the team will be felt for a few more years.