Late Innings

Lots of stuff to run through quickly, but I see no need to use an ordered list here… on Friday last week the Twins inked Joe Crede to a one year deal somewhere between 2.5MM and 7MM. His offense was the main thing dragging him down in 2008, and if he rebounds in 2009, it’ll be good for both him and the Twins. With this news, I still see no need for Seattle to reduce their asking price for Adrian Beltre, who will be a hot name this November. … Speaking of other signings, Los Angeles signed Orlando Hudson to a one year deal worth 3.4MM. If he hits his incentives, he’ll be given a compensation of 8MM. He’s worth the 8MM, but is not worth the 15MM that he was originally seeking. Still with this, the team should really focus on getting Manny signed…

Speaking of other Type As who turned down their arb offers back in December, I could see (the other Orlando) Cabrera in Oakland, however not at 5.5MM, since he’ll cost an unprotected first round draft pick in the process. The same thing applies with the Twins and Juan Cruz. …

Hindsight is 20/20 for Cruz, and other players who gave the middle finger to their arb offers. (Michael Chow/The Arizona Republic)

I’m changing my mind now on Garrett Anderson’s contract, only because he’s only getting 2.5MM. RotoWorld called this move an “uninspired” signing by Frank Wren, but at that price Anderson’s worth it. If he gave the money that the Angels gave to Gary Matthews Jr. two plus years ago, it would be another story. Still I wish they would have signed Jim Edmonds instead…

Rich Lederer from Baseball Analysts sums up the arbitration cases nicely, and I agree with him when he calls Jeff Francoeur “overrated.” … Edwar Ramirez might have been referred to as “good hittin’” by Kevin Millar, but others disagree. The same thing applies to the rest of the Yankees’ relatively unknown (yet effective) bullpen. … and lastly in regards to Rick Kranitz’s “mystery starter”, I like David Pauley. Just say “no thanks” to Danys Baez.

Today was a busy day in baseball. I’ll touch on some of the other stories tonight, however I wanted to chime in with this interesting news item. Twins’ owner Carl Pohlad died today. He was 93 years old.

Pohlad was incredibly wealthy, listed in Forbes as the wealthiest baseball owner in sports. He was also #114 on the Forbes 400 for 2007. Granted with all of his assets, the Twins had a low payroll for many years. And everyone in the media dumped on him because of this.

I wanted to chime in on this, especially since this has been going on for about a decade now. However in all fairness, there’s only so much money that can be thrown at one team. When the team’s only drawing 16,000 fans a game, it doesn’t make sense to have a 100MM team payroll.

I didn’t know Pohlad personally, however the attacks on him by the press were unfair. He donated graciously to charity, and was an avid fan of baseball. He gave what he could to the Twins, however people tend to forget that baseball is a business. And the contraction rumor about him only infuriated many others, especially after he then put the team up for sale. But then again, the Twins at that time were not a marketable product.

Any ways long story short, the Twins have a new stadium coming, an incredible farm system, and with a good decade of winning baseball, things couldn’t be any brighter for the Twins. Yet many are still complaining about the Twins and their small payroll. To say it for the final time, the Twins are not a large market franchise. When you have teams in New York competing for the “best pitcher in the universe” (that is Johan Santana), small market teams cannot afford him. Still Pohlad did and contributed what he could to keep the Twins a competitive franchise, as evidenced in recent extensions to Mike Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan. Baseball lost a fine owner and a great capitalist today, and he will be missed.

The Mariners finally made a splash today and named their GM choice, former Brewers executive Jack Zduriencik. This move was supposed to be announced last Friday, and we got news today that they were still searching. In either case Zduriencik is responsible for developing a talented young core of players in Milwaukee, such as Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Ryan Bruan. He now gets the task of essentially undoing the four-plus years of mistake that Bill Bavasi made on the organization.

I was going to cite Prospect Insider on this story, however they’re down now. Hopefully Jason Churchill and Co. can get WordPress back up and running. In either case, most of the reports that I’ve seen on this move have been favorable. He was probably the M’s best choice, mainly since the best executives weren’t allowed by their teams (e.g. Tigers, Padres) to even interview.

There have been some humorous posts about this signing, my personal favorite:

At the very least I don’t think the Mariners will be selecting another closer in the first round anytime soon

Personally I feel that the Mariners are developing talent as good as any team. They’ve been drafting very well, and as I’ve said before here, I’m a big fan of their recent first rounders, that is Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow and Phillipe Aumont. What doomed them last season was Bavasi. He over-dealt the good youth (e.g. Rafeal Soriano, Chris Tillman, Adam Jones) and over-paid for aging players (e.g. Richie Sexon, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, etc.) At the time when he signed Adrian Beltre to his four year deal (coming off that 48 HR season), Beltre was maligned, however in retrospect this appears to be a good move.

Regardless what the M’s need to do is do what the Rays, Pirates, Orioles, Indians, Royals and such are doing, which is build the young talent up, and avoid caustic contracts. They can’t expect some team to just hand over Kevin Slowley for Beltre (like they tried back in July), just out of pity for what Bavasi did on the team. It took them four years to get into the mess, it’s going to take them four years to get out. Bavasi was bad (here’s a good post on Forbes last year ranking the GMs with three years of experience, Bavasi is in the bottom 10%.) Zduriencik is a move in the right direction.

Ranking the Youth

Bill James has his rankings out for the best young teams, which will be part of his 2009 Almanac (available next month.) Here’s his listing of the teams:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

I can’t agree any further with this list. The Twins have the best 1-5 starters right now, and they were all homegrown. They also have great outfielders in the wings as well. Sickels doesn’t regard them too highly however, though he says glowing things about Ben Revere. Still what the Twins have now is a testament to what the Mariners need to do to right their ship. To further add to this, James has his top 25 under-25 list out as well. It’s tough to disagree with any of these choices, though some of the players might deserve a “bump":

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

An Unlikely Fall Classic

For the record about the series, I predicted the Dodgers to win the whole thing. I was wrong admittedly (though they did make it deep into the NLCS.) Any ways with that said, just like everyone else I like the Rays. The main reason why is Scott Kazmir. The Philies will face him twice in the series, including this evening. Kazmir missed the first month of the year, then broke out in May, going 5-1, 1.22. He made the All Star team and got the win in the extra-innings game, then started to stumble in the second half, finishing with a 3.49 ERA for the season.

His first two postseason starts were tough, but the six shutout innings he threw in Game 5 in the ALCS were brilliant (with seven Ks to go as well.) David Price and Andy Sonnanstine are the X-factors here. The Phillies might win it, however they need to move up Joe Blanton to be the third starter. The Rays are a smart offense, and they hit soft tossers hard (e.g. Tim Wakefield last series.) They’ll face Jamie “Grandpa” Moyer twice. In either case, it’ll be a good series, and since I root for the AL East, I’m rooting for the Rays. Their starting pitching should get the job done.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

As the waiver-trading deadline approaches (August 31st), the Minnesota Twins made a move to solidify a weak bullpen by acquiring Eddie Guardado from the Rangers for another minor league closer, Mark Hamburger. Guardado has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, however he’s been hit hard in his last five outings. Then again the Twins’ bullpen has equally been ineffective, especially after yesterday’s meltdown loss where Nick Blackburn couldn’t make it past the fifth inning. For a team that doesn’t put up too many runs, a strong bullpen is vital to their playoff run. Outside of Joe Nathan, their pen has been a mess, mainly since they’re without veterans Juan Rincon (let go at start of season) and Pat Neshek (injured.)

Any ways Guardado will help shore up a rough bullpen, and will definitely help them in their playoff push. On an aside, Bill Smith could have had Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson this Spring for Johan Santana. I’m wondering if he’s regretting this decision…

Guardado spent a good portion of his career with the Twins. (Chris Carlson/AP)

In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the AL Central, one of the toughest divisions in baseball, is completely out of order. Detroit was expected to be the best team in the division, yet they’ve been poor. Kansas City and Chicago however have been playing well. This post will simply break down each of the teams in this division, and suggest what’s going wrong, and how each team can improve (stats as of 4/15.)

Chicago White Sox— 8-5

What’s been right: Just about everything. The starting pitching has been superb, especially Gavin Floyd (coming off a near no-no) and John Danks (who just threw seven shutout against the Rangers.) The hitting is on a roll too. Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are hitting with new life. Crede, if he continues, could see a Mike Lowell-sized contract coming his way come November.
What’s been wrong: Not much. The team doesn’t have many holes in the bullpen, nor do they do in the rotation (outside of Jose Contreras.) The hitting , though scoring runs aplenty, has been inconsistent at times.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Is this hot start a fluke or for real? It’ll take a few more games to determine whether this White Sox team will win 70 or 90 games this season. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Kansas City Royals— 8-5

What’s been right: The pitching, both bullpen and rotation, has been phenomenal. Joakim Soria, Leo Nunez and Ron Mahay have been lights out, Zack Grenike has been dominant, as has Brian Bannister, who at times has looked like Greg Maddux.
What’s been wrong: The hitting, though promising, has been inconsistent. They can’t solve good pitching yet. There are other rotation questions as well. Brett Tomko has looked good, but many aren’t sure that he’s the long term answer. John Bale also deserves to be in the rotation, and has nice upside, but has had a few rough starts in 2008. Luke Hovechar, the overall pick in the 2006 draft, is ready to be on the pitching staff.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The team, if its pitching remains of highest quality, could be a contender. Any team that’s pitching as well as they are should make the playoffs. However that’s a large “if” right now. Greinke has finally lived up to his promise, and the bullpen is rock solid, but the rest of the rotation needs to stay consistent, especially if they hope to fend off resurgences from Cleveland and Detroit. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Minnesota Twins— 6-7

What’s been right: There have been some surprises in the rotation, particularly Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser. Jason Kubel has also been an offensive force, and Joe Nathan has been lights out.
What’s been wrong: Far too much inconsistency with this team. Michael Cuddyer’s injury hurt, and Justin Morneau hasn’t been producing. The bullpen, outside of Nathan, has been getting hit hard of late.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The Twins will ultimately start clicking on all cylinders soon, but so will the other powers in their division, notably Detroit and Cleveland. They don’t have enough firepower to compete with these teams yet. Adjusted projection: 76 wins.

Cleveland Indians— 5-8

What’s been right: There have been some bright spots in rotation, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook in particular. Victor Martinez and Grady Siezmore are also producing, but that’s about the most that their offense is doing right now.
What’s been wrong: The team is inconsistent on offense, C.C. Sabathia isn’t of form, and their once-reliable bullpen is showing flashes of the 2006 ‘pen’s shaky self. They now have a hole at closer, with Joe Borowski going on the DL after his latest blown save. Rafeal Betancourt should hopefully step in here.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: All the pieces from last season’s championship team are here, and they should figure themselves out by the end of May. Adjusted projection: 91 wins.

Detroit Tigers— 3-10

What’s been right: Their “1,000 run” offense is finally starting to awaken. The Twins just saw it last night, as they watched a nice lead in the eighth evaporate to their potentially dormant offense. Bats like Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez need to awaken. Carlos Guillen has been the only consistent bat.
What’s been wrong: The pitching in whole has been a mess, especially their bullpen. The once-ageless Todd Jones is starting to show some age, and the team wouldn’t mind if Baltimore offered their Rule V pitcher back to them for bullpen help. Detroit needs to make a move, either via trade or move one of its starters to the pen to put out the fire. Rick Porcello shouldn’t be an option this early in his career.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Many people picked the Tigers to represent the American League in the World Series, even with knowing that the bullpen is as bad as its been. The team is talented enough to shake this funk off, however championship teams can’t continuously win 12-10 ball games. Adjusted projection: 87 wins.

For the first Monday back from the holiday weekend, there were a few stories today worth discussing. Attacking all three at once, with my standard thoughts on each:

• The top story of the day was with the Joe Nathan extension. The Twins now have him signed through 2011. There were rumors over the weekend about this being close, however the issue about the no-trade clauses were finally hammered out. On whole, Nathan will be making roughly 11.25MM over the course of his extension.

  All winter, we heard from Nathan and his agent about how he was underpaid the first time he extended with the Twins, and how this time around he wasn’t going to accept anything that wasn’t market value. I found it odd that he took this little of money. Francisco Cordero set the bar this winter with his 46MM deal from the Reds, and of course we can’t forget the 45MM that Mariano Rivera got from the Yankees. In all fairness I expected a 4/48MM deal for Nathan.

  Nathan is the best closer in baseball today, period. It’s not Rivera, or Cordero or even Francisco Rodriguez (who should use this contract as a starting point for any extension with the Angels.) Granted if Nathan’s fourth option year was picked up, he’d get 47MM over the course of this deal, but the one good move that the Twins made is that the Twins control the hand here. Still Nathan is much older than his peers (currently 33), so this deal does bring some risk along with it for the Twins. I found it odd that the Twins were able to offer 80MM to Justin Morneau and 24MM to Michael Cuddyer, but were unable to retain Torii Hunter and especially Johan Santana. Hunter was replaced nicely with Demlon Young, but the Twins should have made the Santana extension priority one, even if Carlos Gomez does turn out to have a great season in 2008 with the Twins.

• Evan Longoria was optioned to Triple-A Durham by the Rays today. As many predicted all along, Willy Aybar will be the team’s starter out of the gate in 2008. Longoria had an excellent spring, and this move doesn’t make any sense in that regard. However, when players are receiving 10MM per season in their first year of arbitration (see Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder), it makes sense for the Rays to push back his arbitration eligibility and free agency another whole season.

  The Reds did the same thing earlier with Jay Bruce, optioning him to Triple-A a little while back. Bruce has very little to prove down there as well, and had a nice spring with the bat, though he made some fielding mistakes that warranted the move. Bruce if waiting in the minors for another two months will also have his free agency delayed a season. I know that this tactic is a great move by the clubs, and I’m sure as ever that the players and agents are knowing of this. It’s anyone’s guess if the agent and the player will remember this once long term extension talks arise…

• The Brian Roberts trade to the Cubs is most-likely on hold, at least until after the season starts. Roberts (and Cubs’ second baseman Mark DeRosa) expressed their concerns over the past few weeks about the trade talks. Usually when the player does this, (Orioles’ President) Andy MacPhail plays his hand and accepts the offer. He did this with Erik Bedard and also Miguel Tejada. I honestly was expecting this deal to get done, since the proposed Ronny Cedeno, Sean Gallagher and Donald Veal offer (with also Sean Marshall in the mix) was very solid. MacPhail clearly wanted Felix Pie however.

  The Cubs are currently exploring acquiring Reed Johnson for the outfield and Felipe Lopez from the Nationals for the infield. Johnson I can understand, but I’m not sure how much of an upgrade Lopez will provide. He’s expensive, and is essentially a one-year rental. Roberts would still be the better option if the club was ever to acquire a infielder though.

When the offseason started, pitchers like Kyle Lohse and Josh Fogg envisioned fat contracts being offered to them. The signing of Carlos Silva by the Mariners only raised their hopes. A few pitchers were signed in the past few days, and these arms might even hurt their chances of getting Major League deals in the end. To run over three of the signings:

• Starting out with the big story, the Twins grabbed free agent starting pitcher Livan Hernandez today for a 5MM contract for 2008. This move is good for so many reasons.

  After the Johan Santana trade, the team’s rotation was in shambles. Bill Smith didn’t get back any pitcher that could be plugged into their rotation right away, though Phil Humber has the best chance (he was shelled in a late-September start for the Mets last year against the Nationals.) Hernandez eats innings, and he’ll most likely be the team’s opening day starter. Their true ace in waiting, Francisco Liriano, might not even reach 150 innings this year, considering the fact that he hasn’t pitched since 2006.

  Likewise this was the best move that Hernandez could make for himself. He’l be given the chance to lead a young rotation that also includes Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Of course this could also hurt Hernandez for two reasons. One he moves to the “arena league", or the AL. Secondly, he’ll be matched against team’s #1 starters consistently. Livan doesn’t have the best of stuff, and he might have a woeful win-loss record in 2008 for the Twins. The Twins probably don’t really care. He’s a one year rental, and he’s being brought in to take the pressure of their three youngest starters as the season goes.

• In news from yesterday, Baltimore signed veteran Steve Trachsel to a minor league contract. Again the O’s have nothing to lose from this deal. The first three spots of their rotation are set in Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera. After that, the remaining two spots will come from a combination of Trachsel, Brian Buress, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, Hayden Penn and Matt Albers. Albers would most likely be a favorite to land a spot, considering the fact that he’s the oldest (26) and logged a considerable amount of innings the past two years for the Astros. If all of them do well in Spring Training, then Trachsel might not have a job. If they struggle, then Dave Trembley would give Trachsel the #4 spot in the rotation.

  Trembley’s best bet is to give the spots to Trachsel and Albers, and if they do well in 2008, they’ll have great trade value either before the July deadline or after the season. Remember that Andy MacPhail did deal Trachsel last summer to help the Cubs’ pennant push, and he plucked two solid players from them in return, in reliever Rocky Cherry and third baseman Scott Moore.

• A signing that could be good for the Phillies would be the addition of Kris Benson, would could be with the team in as few as 24 hours. The Phils need rotation help, and he’d be a better (and cheaper) #4 starter than someone like Kyle Lohse would.

If there’s anything in common, it’s that there’s a large cache of #4 starters in the pile still without contracts. I’m of course referring to starters like Lohse and Fogg. Teams are starting to realize that it’s much better to sign a journey-man or use a high-AAA starter for the #4 starter role than to spend the 7MM-10MM per year on a Lohse or Fogg. In the end, everyone’ll provide the same results, that is 8-10 wins, 4.70ERA, 160 IP. However the bottom line is met, that is teams are saving a great deal of money in the end.

I’m not saying that players like Lohse and Fogg are going to remain unemployed for long; they just shouldn’t expect the kind of money that they originally hoped for in the offseason. Hernandez got the money he did because he has a 10-year track record of hitting 200 inning seasons. Lohse and Fogg don’t quite have that. Both of these pitchers should now take whatever offer that comes along, and use it to build up their value as a back-end of the rotation starter. Fourth starters are not meant to be paid 10MM per year; Carlos Silva is a strange exception.

Face it, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a bad team. If I had to pick one of the MLB franchises that have been the worst over the past fifteen years, the Pirates would top my list. It doesn’t appear like they’re getting any better. They haven’t signed any key free agents outside of Chris Gomez, and have done little to address the areas of their problems. Some of their players are finally starting to address this as well (see Jason Bay.)

If there’s anything that new GM Neal Huntington is doing correct, it’s that he’s now starting to avoid wasting money on aging, useless free agents, a problem that’s been plaguing the franchise for some time now. They have some talented arms, as well as some talented bats, and they’re doing the right thing by keeping them under control for as long as they can with prudent contracts. Today was just more news of them moving in the right direction, with the team announcing that they gave second baseman Freddy Sanchez a 3 year/19MM deal. Technically it’s only two years, but the club has an 8MM option on his first year of free agency after 2009.

With all the news today about prospects and trades, I only thought it would be interesting to use this signing to discuss one of the worst trades that happened ten years ago between the Pirates and the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez is a fine second baseman for the Bucs, a perennial .300 hitter with a batting title already under his belt. He’s going to put up great numbers for some time now as well. All in all, he’s probably the best middle infielder to come up from their system since the team brought up Carlos Garcia.

I’d be surprised if anyone has this card.

Outside of a few Pirates fans, I’m not sure if many people even remember Garcia. Garcia came up with the Pirates in 1992, and stuck with the team since then. He had some great years for the team, until 1996 happened, when he was involved in one of the biggest blockbusters I can remember. The Pirates traded him, Orlando Merced and reliever Dan Plesac to the Blue Jays for three prospects now, and four to be named later.

When this trade happened, I expected the Blue Jays to benefit heavily from it. I thought Garcia would be the move that put them over the top. Wow, like many I was wrong. Garcia flopped, and was later gone by mid-season. The other two players had slightly longer careers, but didn’t make that much of an impact with the Jays. On the Pirates’ side, out of all seven players they got in the trade, none of them really made an impact as well. The key piece to the deal was a pitcher by the name of Jose Silva.

Silva was one of the crown jewels to come up in the Blue Jays system at the time. He was part of their fabled “big three", that is Silva and two other pitchers Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. The later two of the big three succeeded, big time. Halladay won the AL Cy Young award in 2003, Carpenter won it with the Cardinals in 2005. Could Silva have won the same award if he wasn’t rushed into the rotation, as the Pirates clearly did with him? It’s hard to tell.

If there’s anything about these blockbuster trades that are going on today, they’re involving prospects. Prospects may or may not pan out. The A’s got a handful of top prospects when they traded Nick Swisher and Dan Haren, Baltimore got a group when moving Miguel Tejada, Florida got the same after trading Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and of course Minnesota restocked the farm by moving ace lefty Johan Santana (or the best pitcher in the “universe” as Peter Gammons calls him.) Granted there were some players that were received as “MLB Ready” from the deals (e.g. Adam Jones, George Sherill and Luke Scott), but when a team receives a package of prospects, they’re essentially rolling the dice.

The success of a prospect solely depends on the team that’s controlling them. Some teams have better track records. Now would Hanley Ramirez be a super-star if he started out as a rookie with the Pirates instead of the Marlins, I still think he’d be the same. However some players won’t necessarily pan out if on a worse team, especially the younger pitchers.

In looking at the two teams who recently got a stash of prospects, that is Minnesota and Baltimore, it’s only recently that they’ve had luck with player development. When Tom Kelly was managing the Twins, young players struggled once they reached the majors. It seemed that after he left, player development took off, that is Johan Santana, Joe Nathan and even Francisco Liriano started to realize their talent. Baltimore’s case is different. Since their last winning season in 1997, Baltimore has struggled developing players from within their system. Still, it was something they never had to worry about, since most of their roster was acquired via checkbook. It was only recently that the team started putting an emphasis on player development, keynoted by the rise of Nick Markakis and Erik bedard.

In analyzing the two big trades, I’m looking at the prospects and where they’re going. If Adam Jones had went to the O’s back in 2000, I’d question if he’d even succeed. This Orioles team, though they haven’t won much recently, has improved their development. Jones should have a “coming out party” (to paraphrase PI) this year for the team. The same thing goes with Carlos Gomez, who probably had the best thing happen to his career by being traded to the Twins. In either case, I’m dying to see the analysis from the big Bedard trade, and how well people break it down. Tomorrow should be a fun day nonetheless.

Meet the Mets, meet the Mets, step right up and greet…

I found it funny to play this song right after hearing news of this afternoon’s Johan Santana trade. The Mets desperately needed Santana, the Twins needed to do something about Santana. This circus has been going on all off-season, and it’s finally time that the Big Top goes down. Of course the Mets now have a 72 hour window to reach an extension with Santana, and after an expected 5yr/130MM deal is made, Santana will be the latest Opening Day starter for the Mets.

I’m not sure how I would feel if I was a Twins fan now. The players that they received from the Twins were the same players that Baltimore scoffed at when New York attempted to acquire Erik Bedard last December. Unlike the proposed Seattle-Baltimore deal for Bedard, none of these players are Major League-ready. Outfielder Carlos Gomez hasn’t found out how to hit above .230 in his abbreviated stint in the majors. Phil Humber was a top pick for the Mets, however that was four years ago. Since then his stock has fallen. The other two players are still unknowns.

Had the Twins made this deal back in 2007, they could have had their choice between two very nice offers; one from the New York Yankees centered around rising pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera, or one from the Red Sox built around left-handed starter Jon Lester and outfielder Coco Crisp or one around rising-star Jacoby Ellsbury. Boston would have most likely thrown in two solid prospects in Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie.

The best prospect that the Mets have is young slugger Fernando Martinez. If you were to take all of the teams’ #1 prospects, Martinez would be in the middle of the pack, at least according to this interesting Baseball America article. For Minnesota to not acquire Martinez in the deal is a mistake. Based on some of the earlier blockbusters from the season, the going rate was at least five prospects.

The one main difference between Bedard and Santana’s trade value is that Santana will be a free agent after season’s end, and he will command a salary upwards of 22MM per year. That’s why I look at Baltimore’s situation and am pleased with what they will most likely acquire for Bedard (I’d take Adam Jones any day over Gomez.) The Bedard deal will most likely go down tomorrow afternoon sometime.

After New York extends Santana, they’ll have one of the best rotations in the National League. I’d immediately make them the best team in a (for the most-part) weak NL East division. Because of Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine are now going to be much better pitchers. The same thing goes with the Twins. Their staff will suffer, especially since they lost Matt Garza earlier in the off-season.

It’s a shame that things played out this way for Minnesota, especially since they locked up two of their stars last Friday. Minnesota shouldn’t have let this go on as long as they did. They shouldn’t have told the teams to make any acceptable offer. They should have extended Santana. They should have gave him the money. He’s the best pitcher in Major League Baseball. Period.

‘Tis a bad day to be a Twins fan.

I’m not sure what the moves made yesterday in Minnesota signalled. The big story from yesterday was that the Minnesota Twins gave contract extensions to first baseman Justin Morneau and right-fielder Michael Cuddyer. Morneau’s contract will pay him 80MM over six years, including his (recent) signing of 7.5MM for 2008. Cuddyer will be paid 24MM over the next three years.

From what I read on a few sports blogs about these moves, most people were against the signings. In looking at the 2007 seasons by both players, each of them had down years, at least from the season before. Morneau’s average dropped 50 points from the year before, and Cuddyer’s OPS was under .800. The one thing that Minnesota should have done was taken advantage of each player’s down years and used that to lower the value of the contracts (sort of like Detorit did with the Dontrelle Willis extension.) Nonetheless the two deals are done. Morneau’s contract should be used a benchmark for a Ryan Howard deal.

The one thing that these two players (Morneau, Cuddyer) have in common is that their 2007 nummbers were for the most part average with the rest of the league’s position players. The main reason behind that problem was the lack of productivity from Morneau. I know that his 2007 numbers were NOT bad (31 homers, 111 RBI), but the other numbers are down for him (average in particular.) Morneau was fighting a minor injury all season, and did miss some time. His nice power numbers definitely disguised this (most of his home runs came in “bunches” last year.) As a result, the rest of the lineup’s production curtailed.

A healthy Morneau can be counted on to hit .300 with a .900 OBS and 35-40 homers. Those are fine numbers numbers all around in my book (the best from a Twins’ first baseman since Kent Hrbek 20 years ago), and would make him worthy of his contract. Morneau should rebound, and the rest of the lineup will be thankful that he did. Now that these two signings are done and out of the way, we should move along to one more Twin in particular:

It’s time for the Twins to man-up and pay the best pitcher in baseball.

I can’t recall an offseason where one player’s name was mentioned as much as Santana’s was. There have been stories that his velocity has dropped, or that every team on the East Coast is in the driver’s seat for the trade. Regardless of all of this bad press, Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Period. The interesting thing about Minnesota is that if they want to keep their players long term, they’ll pay them the market salary, however they rarely will go beyond four years (Morneau’s case is unique.) The 4yr/80MM deal they made to Santana was very fair; at 20MM per year he’ll be the highest-paid pitcher (and this is a small market team.)

Given the poor trade offers that GM Bill Smith is seeing for Santana, I highly expect huge news next week of him signing an extension with the Twins (great news to keynote their annual TwinsFest.) Contrary to reports of them being unable to do this, they DO have the cash to make this deal happen (replacing Torii Hunter with Delmon Young will essentially save them 10MM on average for the next two or three years.) Minnestota needs to “man-up” and extend their ace. If they don’t do this, their young pitching staff will struggle heavilly without him, and they could kiss their dreams of a .500 season away.

In other MLB news, a couple things that I might be right on…

• Livan Hernandez is close to signing with the Mets. I’m not sure about the details of the contract, but for some reason I just saw the two parties being a perfect match.
• The Rangers assigned Chris Shelton to AAA, something I expected. His .800 OBS will be back on the team soon though. There’s something in the water in Texas in regards to hitters and success, and I’d love to see the numbers from Shelton after a full-season with the Rangers.

This past week has been all about long-term deals in baseball. We’ve seen Troy Tulowitzki get a six-year deal from the Rockies, James Shields get a four-year pact from Tampa Bay, and even Cleveland and New York go for two more years with Rafeal Betancourt and Endy Chavez respectively. So with this segway, I wanted to only discuss a few more long term deals.

• The big news so far of today is the expected four-year deal between the Yankees and Robinson Cano. Interesting move in my mind, especially since I feel that New York low-balled Cano with their arbitration figure earlier last week. Cano is a definite threat for many more .300/20/100 seasons to come under the new deal, which could amount to 30MM. Overall in my book, he’s the third best second baseman in baseball, fantasy wise that is (I like Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips before him; now only if Cano stole more bases…)
• MLBTR is also breaking a possible two year deal between the Braves and Rafeal Soriano. Soriano, their new closer, could have been in for a huge payday come the offseason, however he’ll have to wait another year to reap in the cash. The number of closers entering free agency in the 2008 offseason is scary, especially since we could see teams opening up their pocket-books for Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez.
• Granted I’ve been avoiding the whole Johan Santana mess, like most people should be. However I’m starting to wonder if teams are going to even be able to extend Santana if they acquire him in the next few weeks. Santana could throw a curve-ball and hold out until he becomes a free agent next fall. By that point, teams could sure be getting into a bidding war for his services. As to whether the Twins should have traded Santana earlier in the offseason, the jury’s still out here. However the likelihood of them being able to acquire a player of the caliper of Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury is now slim. I’m starting to think that Minnesota over-played their hand here…

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves

Just because 2007 is about to come to an end, and the first wave of free agent starters have already neetted themselves nice contracts, we shouldn’t rule out the fact that moves won’t be made between now and Opening Day. Here’s a collection of starting pitchers and my prediction as to where they will land in 2008.

Johan Santana. Easily the most-mentioned name in the Hot Stove discussions, Santana is expected to yeild a hefty crop of players upon trade. However given the fact that Minnesota is expecting the farm with the move, and that Santana is expecting a contract of 25MM per year, the only real players in this move would be Boston and New York. Minnesota is asking for each team’s blue chip players, and both teams are unwilling to budge. 2008 Prediction: Opens year in Minnesota’s rotation, traded to New York in July at the trading deadline.

Erik Bedard. Baltimore’s ace left-handed starter, like Santana, is expected to net a nice crop of prospects upon trade. His 2008 statistics (ERA, K/9) were on-par if not better than Santana’s. And if it wasn’t for his bullpen, Bedard would have easily won 16 games last season (and that’s with him missing the final month of the season.) A few weeks ago, there were potentially twelve or so teams interested in Bedard. However, Baltimore GM Andy MacPhail is expecting a large collection upon return, much like what Oakland got after trading Dan Haren. And given the fact that Los Angeles, Seattle and Cinicinatti all improved their rotations via trades or free agency, the number of suitors for Bedard is decreasing. Seattle however is still determined to add an ace to their rotation, which currently is made up of four #3 starters at best (higher-upside in place however for King Felix.) 2008 Prediction: Despite reports, traded to Seattle for Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow.

Mark Prior. He’s pitched in under 50 innings the past two years, being completely on the shelf in 2007. Supposedly fully-recovered from injury, Prior is asking for a raise from the 3.5MM he received last season. Like Bedard, Prior has numerous suitors after him. However many are balking after seeing the pitcher’s medical records. Given his injury-prone track record, Prior might best find himself reviving his career as a reliever like one-time fellow Cub Kerry Wood did. 2008 Prediction: Signs incentive-laden 1yr/2.5MM contract with San Diego.

Chris Benson. Benson isn’t as injury-prone as Prior is, however he doesn’t have the upside. When fully-healthy, Benson is a #3 starter who’s good for 190 innings and 11 wins. Though he’s being sought after by many teams, the odds of him staying on the East Coast are high, since it’s where he’s played his whole career. 2008 Prediction: Signs 1yr/3.1MM contract with Philiadelphia.

Bartolo Colon. Another pitcher with recent injury problems, Colon was 6-8 last season with Los Angeles with a above-6 ERA. When healthy, Colon will eat innings in the rotation. The question is if he can stay healthy all season. 2008 Prediction: Signs 1yr/5MM contract with the Texas Rangers.

Livan Hernandez. He could be 32, he could be 35. Teams aren’t concerened about his age however, Hernandez is a consistent innings-eater in the rotation, having made at least 30 starts ten years in a row now. Given his post-season experience, he shouldn’t have a problem receiving a long-term contract that he’s seeking. The only concern is that teams won’t be going over three years on the pitcher. 2008 Prediction: Signs 2yr/11MM contract with the NY Mets.