Late Innings

In case anyone’s interested, Aubrey Huff is currently a -0.4 WAR player. That means he’s costing the Orioles 1.6MM on top of his 8MM salary. With this news we have the following trade:

The Detroit Tigers bolstered their offense for a pennant drive by obtaining first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday for a minor leaguer.

“I’ve been in last place basically my whole career, so this is an exciting time for me,” Huff said. “I’m looking forward to it.”

The Tigers began Monday leading the Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. The last-place Orioles obtained pitcher Brett Jacobson from Detroit and assigned the right-hander to Class A Frederick.

Jacobson is the Tigers’ 10th best prospect, being selected in the fourth round in last year’s draft. RotoWorld projects Jacobson as “an above average middle reliever and possible setup man.” For them to ship off a player with negative value for an intriguing talent, Andy MacPhail is clearly doing more than dumping salary here.

I’m watching the Home Run Derby and have been so far disappointed. Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder looked ok, then came Brandon Inge who drew the collar. The AL doesn’t have the best crushers out tonight, and I know many of them turn down the invitation due to superstition and such. However this game benefits charity, and the more home runs that are hit, the more that is donated. I never considered Inge much of a masher. He puts up 20 home run seasons, and I give him credit for doing so at Comerica, but he didn’t look good this evening. On that note, be glad that Ichiro turned down the invitation.

Hey, your’s truly will be live-blogging tomorrow’s All Star Game held in St. Louis. I’ve did this before, and the results were interesting. I got my case of beer ready.

Man, Chris Berman’s voice is annoying as ever tonight.

Watch the 2009 All Star Game Tuesday July 14th at 8PM EST on FOX.

There was a piece up from Ken Rosenthal today, speaking about the Phillies and Adam Eaton:

The Phillies released right-hander Adam Eaton with $9.15 million on his contract earlier this spring, but they’re apparently unwilling to make the same move with outfielder Geoff Jenkins, who has $8 million left on his deal.

Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies’ first-year GM, is in the perfect spot to lobby for Jenkins’ release, one rival executive said — the club is coming off a World Series title, and Jenkins, like Eaton, was signed by Pat Gillick, the team’s previous GM.

Phillies president and CEO David Montgomery, however, is unwilling to “eat” a combined $17.15 million, another source said. Evidently, Montgomery drew the line with Eaton.

Apparently Montgomery is still hungry, since he’s ready to now eat the money due to Jenkins:

Just got word that the Phillies have released outfielder Geoff Jenkins.

Does this mean Gary Sheffield is on his way?

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said he would talk later.

To update everyone’s score cards, Sheffield, Jenkins and Eaton are out. Gary Matthews Jr.? My guess is that he’s the next to go. 34MM is a lot of coin to swallow here, however he’s currently the Angels fifth outfielder. The same theory could also be applied to the Dodgers and Juan Pierre, also in year three of his massive deal.

The Tigers’ Opening Day starter regressed slightly last year, after winning 35 games his first two years of his career. His fastball tailed off last year, to an average speed of 93.6 MPH (after being around 95 MPH the first two seasons.) Could that be the reason why his WHIP was high (1.40) or that his BABIP (.305) was its highest it has been in his career?

2009 Projection: 13 W, 210.0 IP, 3.85 ERA, 65 BB (2.78 BB/9), 175 K (7.50 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

Verlander was a fourth round pick in many fantasy drafts last year, and he disappointed in all formats. I’ve seen him go in the fourteenth round (on average) in some drafts. In other words, Verlander is a solid buy low candidate. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland is impressed with what he’s seeing from his ace this Spring.

The Tigers, if kept the way they are, should be a team that scores around 800 runs, and wins about 83 games, even with the pitching staff in disarray as it is. However a fire sale (due to the poor economy) would change everything. If that happens, the wins and offense in Detroit would take a hit, and that would in turn suppress the number of wins that Verlander will achieve in 2009.

“Day One” of the Winter Meetings is here, and part of me wishes that I was in the Bellagio with the rest of the reporters and front office personnel. As to what goes on at the meetings, I’m not sure. Still I’m sure that GMs try to slip Scott Boras a roofie or two. The last thing he would want is to wake up and realize that one of his players was signed below market-value. Maybe this could be a ploy that Andy MacPhail could use… I would love to see Mark Teixeira in Baltimore in 2009; 15MM a year would be even better.

The Trade That Did Happen Yesterday

Everyone expected Jermaine Dye to be a Red last night, however team officials on both clubs quickly dismissed that rumor. One trade that did happen last night was with the Tigers, who got an above-average backstop in Gerald Laird. His defense is solid, and he also has a solid bat too, though without solid power. He’s under team control for two more years, and being a Boras client, he should cost around 4MM a year during this span.

I like this move on the Tigers’ behalf, and I also like it on the Rangers’ as well (Baseball America discusses the two arms dealt.) Jon Daniels is presumably under orders to cut salary, and Laird is a logical fit to go, given the team’s current catching logjam. It’s not a bad return by any means, and many are speculating that Moscoso could be the next Jair Jurjens, which going by last season’s results isn’t a bad thing.

Daniels still has too many corner-outfield, 1B, DH types remaining now as well, given David Murphy, Chris Davis, and even Max Ramirez could all offer the same flexibility. Milton Bradley’s departure opens up a slot for one of them, and I could still see Daniels dealing Hank Blalock to someone. Again, at 6.2MM he’s likely to move, and the Giants have been rumored to be interested. He’d be a great pickup if they grabbed him, and he shouldn’t cost them a Jonathan Sanchez (as many Rangers fans are hoping.)

On an aside, I wonder where Brandon Inge sits in the team’s 2009 plans…

Shortstop Plethora

The other piece of the Giants’ left-side of the infield features newly-signed Edgar Renteria, inked to a 18.5MM deal over two years. The dollar amount surprises me, but I don’t think it’s a bad move that’ll hurt them for years to come (think Barry Zito.) And I think he’ll revert back to his NL-friendly numbers. Still with that all said, there are way too many shortstops on the market today. The other name that’s been rumored to be traded is Jack Wilson, and the asking price that’s on him from the Pirates is high.

I’m not sure why any team would cough up two plus prospects for (potentially) two years of expensive baseball of Wilson. Grated his glove is good, but then again there are other options who deliver the same defensive talents that he does, notably Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Cesar Izturis.

Update: Everett signed with the Tigers today for 1MM.

…

Rafeal Furcal turned down a four year/36MM offer from the A’s, and many are expecting him to now resign with the Dodgers. His agent Paul Kinzer is seeking 52MM over the same term, and the injury he had last year prevented him from receiving any classification from Elias (the Dodgers won’t receive any compensation if he leaves.) Personally I’d rather see Baltimore sign him for 10MM a year than spend 20MM a year on Tex. His four years in Los Angeles were very good. He was the front-runner for the MVP last season, before the back injury came into play. He’s not as fragile as many writers make it seem… Still ESPN and Jayson Stark believe that he’ll sign his contract this week.

Some other random notes from today:

• The Phillies and Jamie Moyer are still hung up in dollar discussions. He was very solid in 2008, and I see no reason why he should receive a pay cut from his 8.5MM he clearly earned last year (in comparison, consider what Carlos Silva did last year.) The team might regret not offering the Type A free agent arbitration.
• The Mariners obtained another 1B/OF/DH in Chris Shelton, Jack Zduriencik’s second move.

• MASN’s Roch Kubatko is under the impression that Ramon Hernandez is to be moved this week, as part of a salary swap. Apparently a framework for a deal is already in place, as he writes:

  In return, the Orioles would get a utility-type player who could move from the infield to the outfield.

  He mentions the Reds as being the suitor here, and Tim Dierkes of MLBTR speculates that Ryan Freel is the most-likely candidate (that was my guess too.) I wouldn’t mind Freel personally. Tossing out the two DUIs, he at least gets on base often and plays plus defense. That alone probably caught MacPhail’s eye. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun also chimes in here on this rumor.

• More on Roch, teams are apparently asking about Daniel Cabrera. He also speculates that the O’s could non-tender Cabrera… speaking of non-tenders there has been a rumor out about the Mariners non-tendering Erik Bedard, but Roch is getting the impression that they’ll offer him a contract for 2009. People were speculating a possible return of him to Baltimore, with news of Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie hanging out in Las Vegas this week (the Adam Jones trade would only look more lopsided if this happened.)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

One week after the Election in November, the Orioles are holding a Rally in Baltimore. One point that everyone’s speculating on is that the team will be unveiling a new uniform for the team. Could there be a new logo in store for the Orioles? That is could we be seeing a meaner bird? Hopefully a new logo will force its team to not play like shit each and every September…

The uniform change did some good for the Tampa Bay Rays in the off season last year. Gone was the neon green (as well as the word “devil"), and it was replaced with a more conservative navy blue look. The result, the team went from worst in 2007 to a MLB-third best 97 wins in 2008.

If you look good, you play good (Wikipedia.)

In regards to the World Series, Tampa Bay can still win this thing, even being down 3-1. The series will resume Wednesday, but luckily for the team they won’t have to face Cole Hamels the rest of the year, and won’t have to face bad strike-zones for Scott Kazmir. The two best bullpens in baseball will go at it on Wednesday in Game Five, and if Tampa can break the tie and pull it out they’ll be in good shape. Game Six sees a sharp James Shields going against an erratic Brett Myers, and Game Seven features the Matt Garza/Jamie Moyer rematch. Garza was clutch in Game Seven in the ALCS as well, and if I was Philadelphia, I’d push to win Game Five and end this series, just so I wouldn’t have to face Shields and (the ALCS MVP) Garza.

Angelic Options

Per RotoWorld:

Angels exercised outfielder Vladimir Guerrero’s $15 million option for 2009…Angels exercised RHP John Lackey’s $9 million option for 2009…Angels declined outfielder Garret Anderson’s $14 million option for 2009.

Again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make these moves.

Grading Trades

It was a year ago from this upcoming Thursday that the Tigers and Dave Dombrowski dealt a pitching prospect in Jair Jurjens and a young outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez for the All Star shortstop Edgar Renteria. Renteria struggled in 2008, posting an OPS under .700, and will most likely lead to the Tigers declining the team’s 2009 option. Hernandez meanwhile is one of the top hitting prospects in the Braves orginization (outside of the Jason Heyward, Jordan Schaffer mix), and Jurjens simply went on to go 13-10, 3.68 for the Braves in 31 starts, arguably becoming their staff ace throughout the season.

Back then Detroit got the upper hand with the trade, however it’s clear that the Braves won out in the long run. On an interesting close, here’s a great piece which does the same thing will all the trades that happened last off season.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

The Comeback Player of the Year Awards came out today. The winners were Cleveland’s Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.53, Cy Young possible) and Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge (41 for 41 in save opportunities, also Cy Young possible.) I realize that these two had off years in 2007, and they both are solid choices for the awards. Still, I stick with the voices that the masses are saying. The awards should have went to Carlos Quinten (36 HR) and Ryan Ludwick (37 HR), in my honest opinion.

One possible front-runner for next year’s award could be Edgar Renteria. As everyone knows by now, Renteria had an off year, especially being part of a Tigers team that was going to score “1,000 runs.” The team was slumping with their bats back in April, and so did Renteria. His option isn’t going to be picked up by the Tigers, and they’re buying out his contract for 3MM. In other words he’ll be a free agent. There’s a piece up on Roch Kubtako’s blog about what the Orioles would do, and most people in the comments suggested that they sign Renteria. I floated the comments and this idea to Tim Dierkes (the MLB Trade Rumors guy) and he responded with the following to me:

Yeah I was looking at that. Bad idea.

Baltimore tried many different shortstops in 2008: Luis Hernandez won the job in Spring Training and was the Opening Day starter. A month or so later, they gave it to Freddie Bynum. Brandon Fahey and Alex Cintron were also given chances, and the team made the late-season trade for Juan Castro, who didn’t provide the offense they needed (his glovework was albeit sound.) Baltimore needs a shortstop for 2009, someone to pair up with Brian Roberts at second. They don’t have too many minor league options, and I did suggest that Andy MacPhail would go after Orlando Cabrera. I personally feel that Renteria would be a better fit.

I’m sure that there will be many teams kicking the tires on Renteria this winter. As to what they’d offer, I’m not sure. There might be a multi-year deal passed, but Renteria might want a one year deal which he could use to reestablish his value for next winter. One year at 6MM would work, and I think MacPhail would bite at that as well. Renteria is only 33, and is one year out of a season in which he hit .332. His defensive range is declining, and his speed is for the most part gone. He still has a good bat. His .269 average last year was his lowest since 2001, and the .698 OPS is ugly. Still those are better number than all Orioles shortstops hit combined last season (Renteria also out-slugged them with his 10HR.)

I would take Renteria for one year, but not for four (e.g. Luis Castillo and his four year/24MM deal with the Mets.) Baltimore hasn’t been dealing out bad contracts of late, and a flyer on Renteria is a good move. Good budget moves include looking for players who have had success in the past. Granted it’s a roll of a dice, but it could pay off for the O’s. After all, Aubrey Huff made a case for the comeback of the year player himself. The same thing goes with the Marlins, who now have a viable trade chip in Jorge Cantu.

If Kevin Millar refers to (Yankee reliever) Edwar Ramirez as “good hittin’", I’m curious as to what other AL hitters are saying about Justin Verlander. I’m looking foolish for putting him as a lock to win 20 games this year (as are many people), but with his stuff I’m confused why he isn’t pitching better. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tries to delve further into an analysis of it, but in the long run, one of the primary barometers of a pitcher is his velocity, and Verlander’s velocity is not down this year. Any ways injury concerns can be dismissed because of it, and there was a stretch from May to July where Verlander was as good as he was his first two years in the majors. He’s got exceptional stuff, and I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but his season is simply indicative of the Tigers’ in general.

Speaking of ESPN, I was watching Baseball Tonight this past weekend and the hosts started to prattle off a list of intriguing two-start pitchers for fantasy baseball. I was albeit drunk at this time, however I need someone to fill out my patchwork rotation in one of my leagues (the two-start pitchers that RotoWorld suggested were people that I could obviously never find on a waiver wire.) I remembered Ricky Nolassco’s name mentioned as him making two starts on the road this week, one in San Francisco and one in Arizona, and they recommended him as a pick. Taking their advice for the sake of things, I plugged Nolassco into my rotation and was rewarded with a nifty two-hitter. I know I rift on ESPN from time to time, that is with their affinity towards the Red Sox (e.g. The Nation!), but their fantasy guys saved my ass. They get my thanks for one week.

• I wanted to chime in on the Greg Maddux trade to the Dodgers, something which broke on ESPN Monday night. I read through Paul DePodesta’s blog about how the Padres are seeking players in return for the Professor, instead of cash assistance. Any ways going through the comments in the bottom, one fan asked if the Dodgers would get compensation if Maddux walked. DePodesta for the most part said “no", since the Dodgers would have to offer Maddux arbitration in the offseason. And as DePodesta responded, Maddux has accepted their offer before (the last thing the Dodgers would need is another one year, 10MM deal with Maddux for ‘09.)
• My friend sent me an interesting read about the Chinese and baseball in the Olympics (not the Chi-coms!) Any ways in regards to the Matt LaPorta injury, it only leads me to wonder if MLB will further scale back on the players that it sends to the Olympics. This incident is interesting, especially from Mark Shapiro and the Indians’ take, since they gave up a pretty penny to acquire LaPorta from the Brewers in July.

• Lastly to close on the Orioles, they made some roster moves. Closer George Sherrill is on the DL (which doesn’t surpise me, considering how worked he’s been.) They also moved Garrett Olsen and Dennis Sarfate out of the rotation. Sarfate has stuff that’s just as good as Verlander’s. He’s at times unhittable, however he walks about six men per nine innings, which is not good. Until that improves, Sarfate’s career as a starter is on hold. Olsen on the other hand might be over-worked himself. A couple starts ago he pitched a shutout into the ninth inning. That was against the Mariners nonetheless, however Major League teams are hitting him hard. Time out will do both pitchers good. Young pitching is good for a team, but is something you can’t rely on all season long (ask the Yankees this year.)

  In regards to what they do in the offseason, I was thinking, that is about their payroll. I expect it to hover around 70MM, and that will include 10MM off the books with Jay Payton leaving, and Chad Bradford recently traded. Before they consider signing Mark Teixiera, they’ll need to sign their own players in house. Sherrill will surely want a raise from the 900K he earned in 2008, and Nick Markakis‘ salary is expected to increase ten-fold once he hits arbitration. Thankfully for the team, Jeremy Guthrie can still be kept at league minimum for another year.

In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the AL Central, one of the toughest divisions in baseball, is completely out of order. Detroit was expected to be the best team in the division, yet they’ve been poor. Kansas City and Chicago however have been playing well. This post will simply break down each of the teams in this division, and suggest what’s going wrong, and how each team can improve (stats as of 4/15.)

Chicago White Sox— 8-5

What’s been right: Just about everything. The starting pitching has been superb, especially Gavin Floyd (coming off a near no-no) and John Danks (who just threw seven shutout against the Rangers.) The hitting is on a roll too. Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are hitting with new life. Crede, if he continues, could see a Mike Lowell-sized contract coming his way come November.
What’s been wrong: Not much. The team doesn’t have many holes in the bullpen, nor do they do in the rotation (outside of Jose Contreras.) The hitting , though scoring runs aplenty, has been inconsistent at times.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Is this hot start a fluke or for real? It’ll take a few more games to determine whether this White Sox team will win 70 or 90 games this season. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Kansas City Royals— 8-5

What’s been right: The pitching, both bullpen and rotation, has been phenomenal. Joakim Soria, Leo Nunez and Ron Mahay have been lights out, Zack Grenike has been dominant, as has Brian Bannister, who at times has looked like Greg Maddux.
What’s been wrong: The hitting, though promising, has been inconsistent. They can’t solve good pitching yet. There are other rotation questions as well. Brett Tomko has looked good, but many aren’t sure that he’s the long term answer. John Bale also deserves to be in the rotation, and has nice upside, but has had a few rough starts in 2008. Luke Hovechar, the overall pick in the 2006 draft, is ready to be on the pitching staff.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The team, if its pitching remains of highest quality, could be a contender. Any team that’s pitching as well as they are should make the playoffs. However that’s a large “if” right now. Greinke has finally lived up to his promise, and the bullpen is rock solid, but the rest of the rotation needs to stay consistent, especially if they hope to fend off resurgences from Cleveland and Detroit. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Minnesota Twins— 6-7

What’s been right: There have been some surprises in the rotation, particularly Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser. Jason Kubel has also been an offensive force, and Joe Nathan has been lights out.
What’s been wrong: Far too much inconsistency with this team. Michael Cuddyer’s injury hurt, and Justin Morneau hasn’t been producing. The bullpen, outside of Nathan, has been getting hit hard of late.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The Twins will ultimately start clicking on all cylinders soon, but so will the other powers in their division, notably Detroit and Cleveland. They don’t have enough firepower to compete with these teams yet. Adjusted projection: 76 wins.

Cleveland Indians— 5-8

What’s been right: There have been some bright spots in rotation, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook in particular. Victor Martinez and Grady Siezmore are also producing, but that’s about the most that their offense is doing right now.
What’s been wrong: The team is inconsistent on offense, C.C. Sabathia isn’t of form, and their once-reliable bullpen is showing flashes of the 2006 ‘pen’s shaky self. They now have a hole at closer, with Joe Borowski going on the DL after his latest blown save. Rafeal Betancourt should hopefully step in here.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: All the pieces from last season’s championship team are here, and they should figure themselves out by the end of May. Adjusted projection: 91 wins.

Detroit Tigers— 3-10

What’s been right: Their “1,000 run” offense is finally starting to awaken. The Twins just saw it last night, as they watched a nice lead in the eighth evaporate to their potentially dormant offense. Bats like Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez need to awaken. Carlos Guillen has been the only consistent bat.
What’s been wrong: The pitching in whole has been a mess, especially their bullpen. The once-ageless Todd Jones is starting to show some age, and the team wouldn’t mind if Baltimore offered their Rule V pitcher back to them for bullpen help. Detroit needs to make a move, either via trade or move one of its starters to the pen to put out the fire. Rick Porcello shouldn’t be an option this early in his career.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Many people picked the Tigers to represent the American League in the World Series, even with knowing that the bullpen is as bad as its been. The team is talented enough to shake this funk off, however championship teams can’t continuously win 12-10 ball games. Adjusted projection: 87 wins.

Usually when the Florida Marlins make a splash and deal a few players, they usually appear to get the upper-hand two or three years afterwards. They plucked the once-untouchable A.J. Burnett from the Mets in their first fire-sale back in 1998, and they did the same with taking Hanley Ramirez from the Red Sox a couple years back. Am I suggesting that the same thing will happen with Detroit and how they dealt the Marlins Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller?

The Tigers made the right moves by extending both players they received in the deal before Opening Day. They got Dontrelle Willis under contract for three more years at a modest 29MM, and just did the same thing this weekend with Miguel Cabrera on his new 153MM contract, which runs through the 2015 season. This deal is a win-win for both parties, however out of most of the reports that I read, they all appear to be saying that this contract hurts the player. To clear a few of these misconceptions once and for all:

Hats off to Miggy, this is a monster deal (AP Photo)

Misconception #1: Cabrera Settled for Far Less than Market Value

Cabrera will receive 153.3MM in guaranteed money over the next eight years from the Tigers. That’s a very nice sum, in fact it’s the fourth largest total compensation package out there (behind Arod, Manny, et al.) Considering the fact that Miguel is going to be playing for a team that will be competitive for some years, this extension was a good move for him. And if the market does grow to the point that 30MM per year players are going to be appearing left and right, the number of years of this contract is small enough so that he can quickly get himself up to the upper-tier status immediately.

Misconception #2: Cabrera isn’t making 20MM per year

At 153MM, by doing the math it’ll appear that on the surface Cabrera is only making 19MM per season. However the fine prints of this contract hide some interesting details. The first point is that this contract covers the 11.3MM one-year 2008 contract that Cabrera signed a few months back. So basically when it all boils down, Cabrera signed a seven year , 142MM extension, which puts him at just over 20MM per season.

The second other point is that this contract only covers six years of Cabrera’s free agency. After Cabrera signed his 11.3MM contract back in December, he still had another year of salary arbitration to work with. So, assuming that Cabrera got a 16MM contract in 2009 (going rate for the final year of arbitration), he’ll have 126MM of the contract going towards his free agency years. That’s 21MM per year, something he would have got if he ever was to hit the open market.

Misconception #3: Cabrera should have signed a 10 year/200MM deal

This point definitely settles my argument on why the player made out well with this deal. On Opening Day of 2008, Cabrera will only be 24 years old. After his contract expires, he’ll be just 32. In other words, he’ll be in the thick of his prime. If his numbers are good now, they’ll be amazing by then. Once 2015 hits, Cabrera will be in line for another monster contract. 2015 is the time when Cabrera should be seeking his ten year extension. If the market inflates at the current rate it’s been doing so, Cabrera should be a 30MM per year player by this point.

A player would want to wait until the near end of his prime to find a team to extend him for a ten year deal, which by at that point his numbers would then start to decline. Alex Rodriguez did the same thing with his contract, and he should be in his 40s after his epic contract expires. The same thing should happen to Cabrera as well. He’ll want to be in his mid-40s after his last major contract expires.

Granted I’ve been glamorizing the player for the past few paragraphs, but am I suggesting that Detroit made a bad move with this deal? Not quite. The Tigers will get Cabrera at his most productive time. And at only eight years, they won’t have to worry about playing a player who’s struggling with injury concerns. There is far less risk involved in signing a hitter to a long term deal than there is with a pitcher; that’s probably why the Tigers only went three years with Willis.

So in the end, this is a great deal for both parties, however it’s even better for Cabrera. He got compensated heavily, and will use this deal as a launch pad for something even bigger come 2015.

Granted, yesterday was a very slow news day in baseball. Yeah, I know… there was a “big game” yesterday. So with an estimated 98 million fans watching the game yesterday, the best thing we saw in the news was a blah extension from the San Diego Padres being offered to Khalil Greene (I wanted to see arbitration battles.) Thankfully things today started out today a little better:

• A Signing I Love: Kudos to the Detroit Tigers and their marvelous off-season. They kicked off everything with the biggest trade in baseball this year, by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins. The next thing they did right was extend Willis for a contract far under his market value. After this, even though they did get Nate Robertson under contract for another three years, they capped off things today with a nice five-year/30MM extension with center fielder Curtis Granderson.

  

  Pump it.

  Yes, like everyone else I love this contract. Granderson is one of the rising stars in the game, and this contract will take out two years of free agency for him. His emergence made the Cabrera trade possible, with Cameron Maybin’s path to the majors being blocked by Granderson. With the Tigers holding a 13MM option for him in 2013, this move is a total win-win for Detroit. Now only if he would update his blog on ESPN (it’s a nice read.)

  There’s been all sorts of talk about how Detroit is built to win now. Yeah we know, the experts are right… Detroit is going to win now. They have one heck of a team. However don’t let them fool you, Detroit is going to also win later. Seriously, why wouldn’t they? Detroit has players such as Justin Verlander, Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez, Willis and Granderson under long-term deals. On deck for the next deal: Miguel Cabrera. Dave Dombrowski clearly knows what he’s doing here, something two out of three MLB GMs doesn’t.

• A Signing I Didn’t Get: The Cardinals did what was expected today and signed Juan Gonzalez for one year. He might not even make the team. I’m not sure why they brought him on, to spell Colby Rasmus? Moves like this happen every month; the Royals did bring on Hideo Nomo last month.
• Something I was Wrong About: The (Devil) Rays learned first hand today why the Braves wanted to get rid of Willy Aybar a few weeks ago. Yes he’s talented, but he has baggage. The news today of him being in jail really hurts his chances of taking the third base job in the Spring, as I’ve been predicting all along. Congratulations should go out now to Evan Longoria, since his competition for the hot corner is now incarcerated. Looks like I’m going to have to take away that Rookie of Year trophy from Jacoby Ellsbury. (On an aside, the team still doesn’t miss Elijah Dukes.)
• Still a slow news day at FOX Sports: Dayn Perry put out his list of the top nine worst players at their position today. Even while blockbuster trades are coming out left and right, FOX writers still have time to write interesting pieces like this. I do agree 100% with Perry’s selections: Kevin Millar shouldn’t be a starter, and Mark Kotsay has never been good. The one thing Perry should have did was listed his starting rotation and bullpen (Carlos Silva should be his Opening Day pitcher if this was the case.)

• Speaking of Blockbusters: The Erik Bedard trade to Seattle is about 99.5 percent done. Seriously, it’s been done since last Sunday. If Adam Jones hadn’t blurted things to the press, this thing would have quietly went down.

  I know that there will be analysis galore about this trade, and the numerous reporters who historically criticize Baltimore just for them “being Baltimore” will be out. Like wise writers, I’m going to also agree with the fact that Baltimore is going to make off with a haul. Yeah, they might have got five averages in the return for Miguel Tejada, however in this case they’re going to be getting back two everyday players (Jones, Sherill), plus three pitching prospects (Tillman being #4 on BA’s Top 10 list for the M’s.) I’m curious to see which of the writers will think that this is a bad trade for Baltimore. There will be tons of them.

  I know that this trade will be costly for the Mariners, however if there’s anything that I can get out of this, it’s that the Mariners will be a pretty good team in 2008. Bedard will make their staff of #4 pitchers (minus Felix) a little bit better (they’d be even better if Brandon Morrow was starting.) Like the Johan Santana trade, this is a trade that Seattle unfortunately needs to make. I’m just curious to see the Angels’ response however.

Earlier today, Tigers hurler Nate Robertson agreed to a 3yr/21.25MM deal with the Tigers. Another great move by the Tigers, especially since they also have locked up Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman to long-term deals.

When I heard earlier in the offseason that Robertson was seeking an extension from the team, the dollar amount that he was after surprised me. Many have speculated that he was seeking roughly 10MM a year, a 3yr.30MM deal or so. I predicted earlier that the Dontrelle Willis 3yr/29MM deal lowered his market value, and I was presumably correct. Robertson’s numbers dipped in 2007, but I still like him as the team’s fifth starter. Unless Kenny Rogers gets injured, I wouldn’t expect Robertson to throw more than 170 innings in 2008 because of this. I’d project an 11-8/4.50 season from him in 2008 because of this, and the strong lineup that’s behind him.

If Robertson rebounds this year, he’ll move up in the rotation in 2009, with Kenny Rogers most likely leaving. This could be a good deal for the club because of this. I’m a fan of the deal for the reasons that it’s a low-dollar deal, he’s a starting pitcher and the team took advantage of an off year to extend him (like they did with Willis.)

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves