Late Innings

This trade is causing me to scratch my head:

Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt was traded to Kansas City on Friday, giving the Royals a versatile infielder and Seattle a pair of minor league pitchers.

The 27-year-old Betancourt was hitting .250 with two homers and 22 RBIs in 63 games this season. He’s been on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma after straining his left hamstring, and will continue rehabbing at Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

The main pitcher that the Mariners got from the Royals of interest was pitching prospect Daniel Cortes, whom has been ranked as the team’s top pitching prospect by Baseball America and has third-starter potential. The other arm is a High-A throw-in, who throws hard enough to miss many bats. But why Kansas City has been after him for years has boggled my mind. What’s next, them acquiring Jeff Francoeur?

Betancourt’s .250/.278/.330 line is uninspiring, and his defense has been spotty this year, particularly his range. But as Shyster so cleverly puts it:

The Royals are probably the only team to which Betancourt could have gone and represented an upgrade at short.

I sure as hell hope that the Mariners are throwing the Royals some salary relief, since Betancourt is owed 10MM for the remainder of his contract. Great move by the M’s; Ronny Cedeno finally gets his chance to become the full time #6 spot on the diamond.

Strange stat of the day, Kansas City leads the majors in runs allowed, allowing only a paltry 21 runs. Conversely speaking, they have also scored the fewest amount of runs in the majors as well (touching plate only 18 times!)

Now on to the brawn, Baltimore is fifth the majors in runs scored, crossing the plate 43 times. They are also fifth in the majors with runs allowed, allowing a whopping 45 runs. It’s not as bad as Cleveland, and it’s been a well-known fact that Baltimore’s bats can rake. Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and co. are doing their jobs, it’s the pitching staff that isn’t. Now for kicks, if we could just supplant the Royals’ rotation and bullpen in Baltimore, we’d have a pennant team that will probably win about 125 games.

In case anyone is watching, Kansas City Royals infielder Mark Teahen is having a torrid spring. Granted I don’t expect him to have a 1.500 OPS for the year, but I do expect him to break out (as I’ve been saying for two years now.) He went from utility man on the Royals, to their starting second baseman. He’s made a case this spring, as has the Royals’ offense, though Teahen didn’t participate in today’s latest slugfest.

2009 Projection: .290 AVG, 550 AB, 160 H, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB

Am I being generous? Yes slightly. However from the show that he’s put on this spring, he’s definitely worth a take on any fantasy roster.

Joe Posnanski is liking what he sees with the Royals so far in Arizona, particularly with their pitching:

People around baseball are beginning to come around to the idea that the Royals’ pitching staff has a chance to be pretty good in 2009. They have a potential ace, a strong veteran starter, a couple of young pitchers who can emerge, a bullpen filled with power arms and the best closer west of Mariano Rivera.

I won’t disagree with any of those claims. Heck I’ve been saying it all along (to many ridicule), I love Kansas City to win the division in 2009. I think they got a good core of players together. Any ways Posnanski brings up one last point about their bullpen, which is still good, sans (league min relievers) Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez:

“I think the Royals have the best bullpen in the division,” a scout says. “They have power arms, they have lefties, they have a great closer. Their bullpen was pretty good last year when I saw them, but I think it’s better this year.”

It’s good. It’s the best bullpen west of Boston. It’s a shame that a Juan Cruz signing made people suddenly think that this team is good…

Royals Sign Juan Cruz

Hopefully this is the last post that I write about the Royals, until they win their division this September of course. I really like the Royals, and they have an interesting core of talent. If the talent goes through a great coalescence however, this team is deadly. Still they have a few flaws, but I still see them winning 85 games in 2009. And in the AL Central, that’s all that’s really needed to do so.

Arizona gets the Royals second round draft pick in this year’s draft, but not their protected first rounder. Cruz gets 6MM, with incentives that could push it up to 8.5MM. Still the sad thing about this deal is that Cruz will get less than Kyle Farnsworth. That’s what you get for being a Type A free agent.

News item from today, the Rockies extended Ubaldo Jiminez to a four year contract worth 10MM. If the two option years are extended (one of them being a free agent year), it’ll be worth over 22MM. It’s a move that I love (12-12, 3.99 in 2008), and I was expecting a big year out of him last year, though I bet on Franklin Morales instead.

As we all know by now, the Royals locked up Zack Greinke yesterday. Granted it’s an expensive contract (especially in comparison to Jiminez’s at 38MM), but fans and statisticians loved the deal, especially with Greinke coming off of a very good year. Actually many people loved the deal, especially the depressed Royals fans (here’s one, here’s another.

I’ve said a few times on this blog that I secretly loved the work that Dayton Moore has done. Again, here’s one, here’s another. I actually liked the Jose Guillen signing, and though 2008 was bad, I expect him to bounce back. They have a good rotation, an improved lineup, and one hell of a closer who should be starting. This team has a great amount of talent, and have been quietly improving, especially over the last three years:

If you give them a 4% for 2009 over the previous season, the Royals are a .500 team this season. However I’m going out on a limb here. Put me down for 87 wins. I like the Royals. They will surprise. They will be this year’s Rays. Yes, I know I say this every year, but Moore assembled quite an interesting group. And coupled with Trey Hillman’s player-friendly personality, this team will be going places, especially in a weak AL Central.

Per mlb.com:

The Royals made their fair share of additions this offseason, but arguably their biggest priority remained: Make sure Zack Greinke stays in Kansas City for the long-term. On Monday, they got their guy.

By signing Greinke to a four-year contract, Kansas City has a critical member of its young core in Royal blue through 2012. And Greinke’s emergence as one of baseball’s solid young pitchers is complete after trying times just a couple years ago.

Dayton Moore did something very good today, and this should make peace with his fans after he foolishly gave a two year, 9.25MM deal to reliever Kyle Farnsworth earlier this offseason.

Greinke is the team’s ace, racks up strike outs, and does something that very few Royals’ pitchers have done recently: won games. He’ll get 38MM over the four years (the last two being free agency years.) It’s clear that Cole Hamels‘ contract was used as a basis for the negotiations. In either case, to echo similar sentiment, Royals fans should be happy that Moore didn’t package their ace to Atlanta for Jeff Francoeur.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

Wow, the Winter Meetings have been exciting. A brief note about me: I work full time as an engineer, and dump posts into this blog whenever I get a chance throughout the day. There has been so much to comment on lately as well. One story that got my attention was this supposed rumor for Zack Greinke for Jeff Francouer. This news got the ire of the entire baseball world this morning. Hopefully Dayton Moore got the memo:

A trade that should never be mentioned again…

I know that some of the things that are uttered in the Bellagio shouldn’t be taken with a dime of salt, still with BP is talking about this it’s still something to mention. Moore has been rumored to be smitten over Francouer, presumably during his days as a Braves scout (long before he was the Royals GM.) However coughing up a (saber-) ace for a player banished to the minors, doesn’t get on base, and foolishly turned down a long-term deal from Atlanta management… Granted I know that Greinke is going to be getting expensive soon, however any trades that start with him and the Braves need to be centered around Tommy Hanson.

Moore thankfully shot this thing down today.

Over the past few days, I’ve never seen so much sludge against the BWAA on the MVP vote, not because of their first place winners, but because of other players who got votes in the later selections. I’ve seen some great essays, and then I saw this piece from Joe Posnanski this morning. He attempts to solve what goes through the minds of a BWAA writer who unfortunately has to choose (to many single, living-in-parents’-home bloggers’ disgust) which players will receive MVP votes. Here’s the crux of the argument:

…the only logical and common-sense way to measure the 2008 baseball achievements of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, is to look at:

1. The number of RBIs they drove in.
2. The finish of their teams.

Anyone who read this blog last night saw the following from yours truly:

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

When I saw this, my jaw was agape. I couldn’t believe it. I jumped out of my cubicle this morning and screamed! Actually I didn’t do that, however I know at times I think I’m clairvoyant, but I never thought my mind was on the same page as Posnanski’s, especially when it comes to something as *serious* as the MVP voting. Posnanski then addressed the same points I made last night, that is involving VORP into the voting, stating that Pujols’ season was many, many, …, many times better than Howard’s was, mentioning that Howard had many more opportunities with runners on base before him, and essentially how most people who work in the BWAA and were given the chance to vote should be unemployed right now. Actually I don’t think he said the last point, however anyone who cast a first place vote Howard should be working for McDonalds right now, and anyone who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez should be, um, there was only one writer.

It’s not like I call Posnanski each night and talk smack with him, but his essay really inflated my ego this morning. The only thing the two of us disagree on is the ordering of the two ‘li’ children in the above ordered list (it’s HTML talk.) Posnanski weights RBI higher, I weight postseason presence. So let’s look at what happened the first two days this week. The AL? In the end it came down to two players, Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer. Mauer had more RBI (84) last year than Pedroia did (83), however Dustin was playing in the ALCS last October, Joe was not (check point me.) In other words, this allowed Pedroia to get the most first-place votes, and Mauer to get the most second-place votes (though he finished fourth overall.) And anyone who cast the first place vote for Howard (there were twelve of you!, shame shame shame)… Pujols’ statistical season last year was just as monstrous as Alex Rodriguez’s was in 2007, and he overwhelmingly won the MVP that season.

…

Any ways I could use that little Posnanski endorsement (if you want to call it that) to plug a main reason why you should read this blog. Most of the stuff I write turns out true many months later (just search for my “10 hitters to watch")… I also did some improvement on this thing, and paid respect for the great season that Tampa Bay had, by adding Don Zimmer to my montage logo. And I also fought the enormous urge to put ads on this site… so there are your reasons. This is one person writing the content, and unlike Sandra Bernhard’s material, the content is original (and albeit humorous.)

You Won’t Have Joe Morgan To Kick Around

The main reason why I’m keeping this site “ad free” is because one of the most humorous sports blogs FJM did the same thing themselves. And In case anyone noticed, Ken Tremendous and the gang hung up their keyboards at FJM (I think they have lives, wives and girlfriends, something I kinda lack.) Actually I saw this last week, and within 30 minutes, there was a post up on Shyster Ball explaining this. I give Mr. Calcaterra some credit, since he did his best FJM impression the other day. I’m planning on doing the same thing soon as well, I just need an idiotic story to trash. I’ll start scouring philly.com or boston.com more, or if something about David Eckstein comes my way… anyways now onto some baseball related stuff.

The Moose is Loose

Breaking: Mike Mussina officially hung it up, after (finally) notching his first 20 win season last year. My prediction to this, he’ll be like Brett Favre and will want to come back. The team that will take him? Baltimore. I think Peter Angelos is offering 140MM over six years… Any ways the last playoff game Baltimore had recently (ten years ago) was pitched by him, and I was there. There were a lot of people pissed off at Armando Benitez that night (I remember the expletives being shouted walking down from the upper deck.)

Sickels on the East Coast

John Sickels has his Top 20 prospects up now for the Orioles up by the way, and as a fan I couldn’t be any happier. He gave an “A” to Matt Wieters, and “B+"es to their upcoming “big three", that is Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Say hello to your “mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza” (Baltimore Sun Photo by Karl Merton Ferron)

It’s not a bad system, at least in comparison to the thinned-out Diamondbacks system (should be replenished after the compensation comes during next year’s draft) and the Washington Nationals, whom he is currently going over now. It’s not pretty, or as he so eloquently put it:

Yuck!

What’s Going on in Kansas City

There was another big trade that went down today in Kansas City. Even though I’ll wait for Posnanski to write about it this weekend in his Kansas City Star piece, I’ll briefly touch it here. The Royals came into the off-season with a surplus of middle relievers. They dealt Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs a few weeks ago, and now just dealt Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp.

The team isn’t hurting for middle relief, since they still have Ron Mahay, Horacio Ramirez, … and they have some dude named “Joakim.” Still the team now has a glut of outfielders, and I think now’s the time for them to deal Mark Teahen. I like David DeJesus though, but if he can fetch a Felix Pie, you got to pull the trigger. Still, looking at right now, Crisp suddenly gets everyday at bats, 625 plate appearances next year (as Roto Professor put it, Crisp screams “must start".) Last year he was hurt, and he was platooning, however he was still solid. I doubt he’ll slug .460 again like he did in 2006, but he moves fast and plays stellar center field. At 5.5MM he’s a steal, and most importantly, Mr. Crisp gets on base. He, much to Royals’ fans like, clipped at a very solid .340 OBP. Suddenly Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon are smiling…

The Red Sox had to move him, and they got good return in Ramirez. They can do cheaper for a fourth outfielder, whom they’ll need for Jacoby Ellsbury/J.D. Drew injury insurance. Still looking at Crisp, you can’t all but not love this move. And if the Royals give him his 650 plate appearances this year and next (they’ll need to exercise a 8MM option), they’ll (likely) have a Type A free agent in 2010, who could net a pair of draft picks in the 2011 draft. Contrary to what many people are saying, I like what the Royals are doing (wait until Gordon breaks out…) And dare I say this, but I don’t think 85 wins are out of the question. After all the exact same thing worked out well for Tampa Bay last year.

Any one in Kansas City who grabbed the Kansas City Star this morning was able to read Joe Posnanski’s latest piece. Going by my count, I think it’s his tenth post discussing Mike Jacobs. Any ways this is my fifth I think, and for a minor trade like this five is way too much.

He brought up the fact that reporters were asking Dayton Moore about why they made this trade. Any ways let’s quickly surmise the problem here: there’s a supposition going around that Moore is trying to dismantle the deep talent that he has in his system and is trying to bring in players who can’t on base. They got Jacobs, they were after Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Franklin Gutierrez. Posnanski even showed what the lineup would look like for them if they brought in those players. His projection has the team getting on base roughly 30% of the time.

The Jacobs trade from two weeks ago was not a blockbuster. The Marlins were simply trying to move him, and were willing to take “whatever they could get.” In all fairness, I can’t remember a trade where the team that dealt its slugging first baseman for a middle reliever was seen as the better team. If the Braves were to have traded Mark Teixeira for Justin Speier last July (a similar trade), there would be an uproar in Atlanta (Frank Wren would have been pushed out like he was in Baltimore.) With that statement, I’m honestly surprised that the Marlins didn’t get more for Jacobs.

I’ve been saying this since the trade broke, that if Jacobs got on base more consistently he’d be deadly. If he wound up with an OBP of .350 in 2009, the Royals would have clearly ripped off the Marlins. Moore feels the same way, that is coaches can teach the hitter to be more patient at the plate. They clearly have a great coaching staff, given how much major-league ready talent they have. Posnasnki disagrees; he feels that getting on base is a “talent":

One of the great traps in sports is believing you are smart enough to change somebody. Coaches can help smooth out rough edges, maybe. But getting on base is a TALENT, and you can only improve that so much. It’s fool’s gold to believe anything else.

In either case, this trade is NOT a bad thing for the Royals, as I’ve been saying all along. Having Jacobs on the roster allows for the Royals go give more competition to its younger players. You have to make Kila Ka’aihue earn the first base job, not just hand it to him during the winter. Ask the Yankees how this worked last winter with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy…

So with that all said, I’m projecting the following from Jacobs in 2009: .265/.335/.515, 30 HR, 115 RBI. I think the Royals in 2009 are going to be this year’s Rays. And when the team plays well, the rest of the players play well also, and it’s reflected in their statistics. Seriously, the Royals could win 87 games in 2009. And given the fact that they play in a weak division, that could take them into October next year.

Any ways, we’re five days past the first trade of the MLB offseason, and people are still talking about it. For the most part, people are thinking that the Marlins got the upper hand in the deal which saw them receive reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals for slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs. The most ridiculous thing I’ve seen recently: Mike Jacobs the Musical.

I’ve said it many times recently here: I like the Jacobs trade. The Royals gave up a replaceable reliever and received much needed power, especially considering that their lineup was second to last in the AL in home runs. I know that Jacobs has his holes (OBP), however with a little tinkering he can become a great trade chip for the Royals. Nunez isn’t a bad reliever, however he lacks the upside needed to push himself into the closer’s role (a poor K/BB ratio being one.)

I saw Posnanski’s blog this morning on the trade, and he doesn’t like it. However he echoed the same points, that is the Royals chose SLG over OBP. However in other words, he echoed what I’ve been saying along about the trade:

Mike Jacobs might hit 30 home runs for the Royals this year. He might get his on-base percentage up into the respectable range. He might have his best year. He might. He might. And it isn’t like the Royals traded away a star to get him. … But, more I think about it, I don’t see how he fits into any sort of plan. At all. And the more I think about it, the more I feel certain that this is precisely the kind of move you do not make.

On the other side of the coin, BA was optimistic about the trade:

Put it all together and I just don’t see where there is all that much risk in this trade from the standpoint of Moore and the Royals.

Precisely. The Royals rolled the dice by acquiring Jacobs, and the only chips they had on the table was Nunez. Jacobs has faults, however he’s still young and has upside. And as the previous authors said, he was hampered by unlucky BABIP (which precipitated his .247 average in 2008.) He could blossom into a .270/38/115 hitter for the Royals. Alex Gordon and others in the lineup could benefit from him as well (just like every other hitter in the Marlins’ lineup did last season.) And if this happens, I’ll be here, same time same place, to criticize all the haters of this trade.

Some other things from today:

Brewers pick up Mike Cameron’s 2009 10MM Option

This was an easy move on behalf of Doug Melvin and the club. Cameron only hit .243 in 2008, however he launched 25 HR and stole 17 bases. He also only made one error as well, fielding to a stellar tune of .997. For above-average position power and defense for a center fielder, 10MM is a bargain. And it seemed that the Brewers played better with him in the lineup, especially defensively (Ryan Braun was quietly a good defender in left field.)

Link Roundup

• The MLBTR top 50 free agents are up for everyone to see. Note that I did mine back in August, and I agreed with his destinations for the top two free agents: C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. One other note, we both agree on the Brewers spending big on a closer, though I see Francisco Rodriguez getting the contract, not Brian Fuentes.
• Joe Sheehan (of BP, special to CNN SI), picks five “radical moves” that would be interesting to see made this winter. Camden Chat does agree that it would be interesting to see Brian Roberts move to shop to accommodate one of the free agent second basemen this winter.
• RotoProfessor essays worth discussing: Manny Ramirez’s effect on the Dodgers lineup in 2008, and Rich Hill’s role for 2009. Both of these are good reads. Honestly I’ve given up on him, especially after he got torched for six runs on last Friday’s one inning start. Hill’s solid 2007 season (11-8, 3.92, 183K in 195.0 innings) seems like it was ages ago.
• Changes are coming to Late Innings real soon… I can’t say what. (I’ll give you a hint, it involves two thoughts: revenue and Sam Adams.)

Two days after the Mike Jacobs trade happened, we’re still talking about it here. Most of the feedback I’ve seen on the trade has been negative for the Royals, especially from ESPN’s Keith Law, who says that Jacobs is a non-tender candidate, something I honestly don’t see. Given the (rumored) interest that has been floating around about Jacobs, the Marlins were going to at least tender him a contract for next year. I understand that he is arbitration eligible, however 3MM for a first baseman who hits 30HR and drives in 100 is a bargain, and even the Marlins know that.

If Jacobs (as I’ve said earlier) draws about 30 more walks in 2009, his OBP would jump into the .340 range, and he’d be an even more attractive trade candidate for the Royals as they enter next Winter’s off season. In either way, I’ve made the argument that the Royals didn’t get “fleeced” with this move. Looking at the forest from the trees here, the Royals got a 35HR bat (which are rare), and all it cost them was a middle reliever.

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I’ve seen a post yesterday on Rany on the Royals about the role Billy Butler will play for the team in 2009. He made the following statement:

Most importantly, though, trading for Jacobs makes it more likely than not that Billy Butler has already played his last game for the Royals.

I’m not sure if I’d go that far. He mentions that Dayton Moore isn’t a big fan of Butler, however he’s clearly one of the team’s best prospects to come up in the last three years. Butler is currently penciled in as the Royals’ DH for 2009. His average has always been high, and his lost power came back once he returned to the team’s lineup in July. In either case, I highly doubt that the Royals would move Butler. If there are any players they should move, they should either look at moving Mark Teahen or Jose Guillen. Teahen’s trade value is high now, and Guillen would fill any corner outfield void for many teams. Still if Moore does in fact want to move Butler, Camden Chat says the Orioles would like him.

More on the Royals

The ever interesting RotoProfessor looks at whether Royals’ starter Kyle Davies could be a sleeper in 2009. Honestly I ask this question each and every year about Davies, and I’m personally starting to lose patience with him. He might prove me wrong, I don’t know.

More on the Orioles

Granted the Orioles wouldn’t mind having Butler (as another DH), however the team has numerous holes right now: shortstop, corner infielder, starting pitcher… Roch from MASN looks at the free agents, and mentions that insiders within the Orioles are kicking the tires on free agents Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. I’ve discussed Renteria and the Orioles earlier, and I could see it happening, however he’s a Type B free agent. If the Tigers offer him arbitration (which will most likely happen), Baltimore will lose their second round draft pick next year.

In either news, Peter Schmuck also mentions that the Orioles are highly interested in Mark Teixeira, and there has been rumors that Peter Angelos will pay “whatever it takes” to get Tex at first in 2009. One caveat, Tex is a Type A, and the Angels are sure as ever going to offer him arbitration, especially since they coughed up Casey Kotchman to obtain him. The cost won’t be cheap, and even if the Orioles grab him, after all the teams bump up the bidding he’ll be looking at 20MM per year.

My take, I like Teixeira, however the Orioles aren’t a winning team yet. Granted Teixeira could come in for the money, however he’d be disappointed after Andy MacPhail then dealt the rest of the lineup for prospects (Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff.) MacPhail needs to stay the course and keep building talent within. Last year was good, and he’ll need to start moving more chips to only improve the team’s overall depth.

By the way, the official Elias rankings are out now for the free agents.

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

It was a relatively slow news day, however there were a few points that I wanted to discuss here:

• Rockies reliever Luis Vizcaino was charged with a D.U.I. and is being held with a 500 USD bail. MLB D.U.I.s aren’t a big deal, however they’re fun to write about. Joba Chamberlain had one last week, B.J. Upton had one in the past as well. These things come and go by quickly, unless there’s a manslaughter charge pressing. Still on an aside, you’d think that the Rockies would rather now have LaTroy Hawkins instead of “The Viz", especially based on how well Hawkins pitched for the Astros.
• RotoProfessor gives his Top 10 Free Agent busts from 2007. I can’t agree anymore with him on his #1 pick, as I’ve been saying for some time now.
• According to the Denver Post, the Rockies want to move Garret Atkins for pitching, based on the fact that he’s due another raise in arbitration this season, and the other fact that Ian Stewart has emerged as a solid infield option. Atkins’ road numbers should scare you by the way.
• Jack Zduriencik, the new GM of the M’s, is starting his search for the new team’s manager. Is Ned Yost the logical answer? Also, the Onion makes a great case as to why Jim Riggleman should be brought back to manage the team.
• According to MLBTR, a Mark Teahen/Franklin Gutierrez trade between the Royals and Indians is false rumors. I spoke highly about both players in the Spring, and even though I correctly predicted that Teahen’s power had returned, his other numbers (OPS in particular) have regressed.