Late Innings

Over the week, I read a few things about the Rockies as a team not having any real weaknesses… That claim is clearly viable, that is until Aaron Cook went on the DL. And Carlos Gonzalez is out for a week after cutting himself with a steak knife. The team just signed Jason Giambi and Russ Ortiz to add some veteran depth, and even with these moves I still really like this team.

Ubaldo Jimenez manhandled the Giants today. Granted everyone’s been talking about Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter for the NL Cy, but some consideration has to definitely be thrown to the Rockies’ ace.

Not to toot my own horn, but I wrote the following about Ubaldo back before the season started, declaring him my sleeper of the year:

I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts.

I compared him to a poor man’s Oliver Perez, who at the time just signed a lucrative three year deal with the Mets. Yes it’s true that Jimenez is pitching very well, it’s a shame that Oliver is not. In case anyone watched the Mets game today, he got destroyed by Phillies hitting.

In case anyone’s watching, the Rockies’ young combo of Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez have only allowed one earned run in 13 innings. The combo has struck out 14 hitters in the process. While the “FU combo” has been dominating, they’re clearly the best (and healthiest) pitching prospects that have come up in the past decade for the Rockies. Adding more immaturity to this joke, the FU combo is pitching to a tune of a 0.69 ERA.

We are just two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and I wanted to start throwing in a few of my sleeper picks for the upcoming season. I wrote a while back about Josh Phelps, which prompted ridicule from readers. I explained my case (mainly that he’ll get bats), and if he goes deep 25 times in 2009, there will be a lot of dumbfounded looks on people’s faces.

To clarify, almost everyone and their mother has labeled Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz their sleeper picks for 2009. Granted there’s no questioning their talent, however with everyone knowing this tidbit, I’m seeing Davis drafted on average in the sixth round, and I’ve seen Cruz (a AAAA All-Star) go as early as the ninth round. Suddenly these two players don’t quantify as sleepers anymore, do they?

Enter Ubaldo Jimenez. There are a number of pitchers on the Rockies staff who could be considered their ace. Jeff Francis was big two years back, and Aaron Cook was a welcome surprise last year. Dan O’Dowd and Co. locked up Jiminez to a solid four year deal this week. And if you look at Paul Maholm’s contract in comparison, in my opinion the Rockies will look very smart in the long run. Maholm has #3 starter ceiling, while Jimenez could easily be any team’s staff ace, if he could just harness his control.

The always good to read Roto Professor had his Ask the Expert piece up this week, and this piece featured the Denver Post’s Troy Renck. The staff ace question was brought up, and here was Renck’s excellent answer:

Ubaldo Jimenez is primed to be the ace. Nobody threw more fastballs over 95 miles per hour last season in the big leagues. The issue is command. When he has average command, he’s a no-hitter waiting to happen. But teams continue to exercise patience against him. Jimenez gets it, works on his correcting his mistakes. He should win 18 games this season.

I’m not sure if I could see him winning that many games, however I could see him winning fifteen games. I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts. Now I’m not suggesting that you draft him early, but if I see him in the later rounds (19th and later), I’d grab him. I’m waiting until the eighth round to start plucking starting pitching this year. I grabbed a pitcher very early last year (fourth round), in Justin Verlander, and I got burned hard.

So there you go. Consider Jimenez for your fantasy teams. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez. Literally. One pitcher (with the help of Scott Boras), will be making 10MM in 2009. The other pitcher will be making 750K. Which of these two will provide the better bang for their buck?

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

It was a relatively slow news day, however there were a few points that I wanted to discuss here:

• Rockies reliever Luis Vizcaino was charged with a D.U.I. and is being held with a 500 USD bail. MLB D.U.I.s aren’t a big deal, however they’re fun to write about. Joba Chamberlain had one last week, B.J. Upton had one in the past as well. These things come and go by quickly, unless there’s a manslaughter charge pressing. Still on an aside, you’d think that the Rockies would rather now have LaTroy Hawkins instead of “The Viz", especially based on how well Hawkins pitched for the Astros.
• RotoProfessor gives his Top 10 Free Agent busts from 2007. I can’t agree anymore with him on his #1 pick, as I’ve been saying for some time now.
• According to the Denver Post, the Rockies want to move Garret Atkins for pitching, based on the fact that he’s due another raise in arbitration this season, and the other fact that Ian Stewart has emerged as a solid infield option. Atkins’ road numbers should scare you by the way.
• Jack Zduriencik, the new GM of the M’s, is starting his search for the new team’s manager. Is Ned Yost the logical answer? Also, the Onion makes a great case as to why Jim Riggleman should be brought back to manage the team.
• According to MLBTR, a Mark Teahen/Franklin Gutierrez trade between the Royals and Indians is false rumors. I spoke highly about both players in the Spring, and even though I correctly predicted that Teahen’s power had returned, his other numbers (OPS in particular) have regressed.

A few things built up since the last time I wrote here. I’ll iterate through these “unordered list” style, of course giving my inexpert analysis of each move.

• The Diamondbacks locked up co-ace Dan Haren this evening with a five-year contract extension. I’m not exactly sure what Josh Byrnes and co. did in Arizona, but they for the most part pulled a “Johan Santana” and tore up Haren’s existing contract. His new deal will pay him roughly 58MM over the length of the contract, assuming the Diamondbacks suck up that 15.5MM club option for 2013. If Haren continues to pitch as well as he has, this will probably be exercised.

  Haren’s good, and he’s finally getting paid market value. Billy Beane extended him for very cheaply, then he broke out last year (starting an All-Star game) and was sold high to the Diamondbacks for a cache of players. He’ll be 33 when his contract is over, so this is a great move for the Diamondbacks, considering the fact that the risk is lower here, and that Haren is currently 12-5 with a 2.75 ERA.

  I’ve been a fan of Haren for years now. I remember when he was with the Cardinals and Baseball Weekly named him their minor league pitcher of the year. Maybe that was Bud Smith, I’m not sure, but it seems just right after that he was immediately shipped to the A’s for Mark Mulder. Any ways Haren didn’t come as cheaply as other recent young pitcher signings, however for an ace this is albeit a good deal. Now the real question is how in the world are they going to lock up Brandon Webb?

• Joba Chamberlain is hurt now (was watching it last night on ESPN), as is Billy Wagner. Any ways Ian Kennedy gets the starts, and I expect him to stick this time around. He hasn’t been in the minors too long, but he’s one of the better young finesse pitchers that I’ve seen. He’s bound to succeed as a #3 starter.
• Jamie Moyer impresses me. The same thing goes for Fernando Tatis. He’s now a regular, and after two more bombs he’s up to nine. He probably won’t hit 34 again, but it’s nice to see his resurgence. By the way, Rich Harden got hit hard in five plus tonight. He still struck out eight in the effort.
• In Baltimore, Adam “no relation to Pacman” Jones goes on the DL. After fouling that ball off his foot on Sunday, he apparently has some sort of fracture. He should finish the season on the DL with a .279/7/50 line. Not a bad chip to come for Erik Bedard. Speaking of the lopsided trade, George Sherrill should be shut down or used sparingly now. After his three walk effort last night (and that he’s at his seasonal innings total now), “Full Pack” is out of gas.
• The Rockies finally acquired a front line starter, picking up Livan Hernandez who was dumped by the Twins earlier this week. They’ll swallow the remaining 1.5MM that he’s owed on his one year, 5MM deal he signed in the spring. By the way there’s a little sarcasm here, he’ll be ineffective.
• By the way, Gio Gonzalez gets a start for the A’s this week. I’ve been hyping him since last year, and am curious to see how he’ll fare in his debut.

According to mlb.com, we’re a good 25 days away from the July 31st trading deadline. It wasn’t as exciting as it was in years past, when the deadline was at midnight instead of at 4pm in the afternoon, however prominent players have been traded in recent years. It’s not that players can’t be traded after the deadline, however if a player is traded in July, he won’t have to pass through waivers.

There are a good number of teams in the playoff hunt, and I’m curious to see what they’ll acquire. Will the A’s acquire another Kevin Appier for their playoff push? What will the Red Sox and Yankees do this month? I’m not sure, but I wanted to chime in on a series of topics.

The Sabathia Sweepstakes

A few months ago, I expected the Indians and Tigers to rebound and push for the AL Central title. The Tigers are doing so, however the Indians are last in their division. The main reason why is because of their lack of offense. Grady Siezmore is “en fuego", however Victor Martinez (albeit injured) is homer-less. Travis Haffner has been a disappointment.

Since the Twins and White Sox have been in command of recent, Mark Shapiro should probably do the best thing and raise the white flag on the season, and trade away the team’s staff ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia, 6-8 3.38 ERA with a MLB-leading 123 strikeouts, has been on a tear of late. Many teams are coveting the potential free agent, who should command a contract in excess of 100MM come this winter. The Rays, Phillies and Dodgers could all use him, however the Brewers have apparently made the best offer for the ace. Granted if the Brewers were to acquire Sabathia, they’ll most likely be coughing up Matt LaPorta, their 2007 first round draft pick.

I was watching the Red Sox/Yankees game on FOX yesterday (it was all that was on), and they went to a cut to Ken Rosenthal, who expects this deal to go down sometime before the All Star break (this week.) I see the Brewers winning the sweepstakes, and the deal would definitely benefit both parties. The Indians need hitting and LaPorta would be ideal. The Brewers who are hot now, would definitely use Sabathia. This is the deal that I would make. The Brewers haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and their window of winning is closing very quickly (Prince Fielder could be traded in the winter?) The two teams have a history of making successful trades (e.g. Richie Sexon in his “good” years), and this one would be a deal that I would approve. Besides, the Brewers could then get the two compensatory picks after Sabathia leaves in the winter (he’ll all-but-sure be a Type A free agent.)

A C.C. trade would make sense for both teams (AP photo c/o CNN.)

Spelling Relief

I was watching the Mets/Phillies game last night, and watched the Phillies’ MLB-best bullpen implode and let the Mets come back (Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez were the culprits.) Was that the reason why they then gave Brad Lidge a three year/37.5MM extension this morning? (Great move for both parties by the way, especially on the club for only getting him to sign for three years.)

The main arm that’s been rumored is the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes. The Rockies have depth with Manny Corpas pitching well, and Taylor Buchholz being un-hittable, so Fuentes is expendable. He’s got closer experience, and is a free agent come fall. In other words he’ll command a deal around 5MM per season. Still a number of teams are coveting him, and they’re all the AL East contenders; the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays are the interesting choice, and would obviously make a move to prevent either of the two teams from acquiring the top setup man.

The two arms that I saw the Rays ready to give up for Fuentes are either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. Personally that’s too much for Fuentes, Davis in particular. A comparable trade is what the Red Sox gave up last July for Eric Gagne. The Rays should give up a starter with some MLB experience, someone much like the Kason Gabbard, who went to Texas in the Gagne trade. Gabbard is fighting injuries, and at times has been effective, however Theo Epstein was able to persuade Jon Daniels to take Gabbard instead of someone like Jon Lester or even Clay Buchholz. The Rays should be showcasing Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell, or even Edwin Jackson. Jackson would make the most sense, since David Price is all but ready to step in and contribute for the Rays. Yes the team is winning now, but trading raw talent like Davis or Hellickson is foolish. It’s something that Bill Bavasi would do.

Mahay, Mahay!

Back in December, I listed my five personal free agent signings of the offseason. Two of them were Royals’ signings. Jose Guillen, at times maligned by the press, is now one of the final write-in choices for the AL All Star team. He was brought in to revitalize their offense, which he is doing. When Guillen hits, the Royals mash. When Guillen doesn’t hit, then the Royals get, um, no-hit. The other player I liked was their signing of Ron Mahay, 2 years for 8MM, whom I speculated that the Royals could spin off for someone else this year. The Yankess wanted him last winter, and could easily want him again come the trading deadline. Mahay is clearly doing his job by the way (4-0, 2.03 ERA.)

Closing Rumors

Some final food for thought:

• The Orioles are a .500 team, and have plenty of chips to trade. Granted there’s their All Star George Sherill, who essentially has pitched the same number of innings now as he did last year, when he was a left-handed specialist. Baltimore also has Brian Roberts (like Guillen a write-in choice) available. Aubrey Huff is also having a fine year and could go for a good price. There are other names as well that could move.
• The A’s are easily buyers now instead of sellers, and will most likely be holding onto Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. I could see Chad Gaudin (relegated to the pen) being moved for a good bat.
• The Dodgers and Orioles need shortstops. Outside of Felipe Lopez, Jack Wilson and David Eckstein, there isn’t much available.
• Matt Holliday, an NL All Star, may or may not be available. If he is moved expect the bounty to be high. The same goes with the Braves and Mark Teixeira. The Braves are still in contention however.
• If the Yankees trade for help, expect Ian Kennedy to go. If the Red Sox make a trade, they’ll have to cough up Justin Masterson. Any team will ask for these two players, since both Joba Chamberlain and Buchholz have been deemed untouchable by their respective teams (and rightfully so.)

The Rockies just reached a 3yr/17.5MM agreement with outfielder Brad Hawpe. It’s been a very busy off-season for the club, since they’ve already reached long-term agreements with pitcher Aaron Cook, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, closer Manny Corpas and outfielder Matt Holliday. They reached a two year deal with him earlier in the off-season, to purchase out his remaining arbitration years. They’re currently working on something longer.

I love what the team is currently doing, which is giving core players long term contracts. Granted there are security risks in doing this, however the money saved in the long haul will be a better benefit, since going year-to-year with a player can get expensive. When a player has a great year right out of the gate, and the team is still allowed to offer him something at league minimum, that’s when the contract talk should occur. Cole Hamels won 15 games last year, and wasn’t overly happy about his 500K renewal. I mentioned Prince Fielder yesterday, and the ever-vocal Jonathan Papelbon is asking for 900K in his last year before being arbitration-eligible.

Making moves like these is always a good PR aspect for the club. The player won’t have many ill-will going towards free agency as well. Take Ryan Howard, had he been given a long-term contract two years ago, he’d probably be making half of what he is now. He’ll still give the Phillies a chance to sign him when he hits free agency, but there won’t be any “hometown discount".

With about one week to go, I wanted to cycle through the remaining list of players and how their arbitration cases panned out. So far there have been four hearings, and the clubs have defeated the players in all four of their cases. I’ve personally never sat through an arbitration hearing, though I’ve talked with people who have (Paul White from USA Today in particular.) On the whole it’s not a nice process, and clubs try their hardest to avoid arbitration hearings since it generally leads to bad relations between the player and the clubs. Any ways my thoughts about what’s going on, starting with the four settled cases:

• Jose Valverde gets 4.7MM from the Astros: This case was interesting since Valverde and the club were roughly 1.5MM apart in figures. The case could be made why Valverde didn’t get his 6.2MM since his 2006 season was horrid. 2007 was his first breakout season as a closer, however he was hoping to get a figure that Washington’s Chad Cordero got a month back. Cordero has a better history as a closer, however it won’t be long before Valverde gets his 10MM per season payday.
• Chien-Ming Wang gets 4MM from the Yankees: I didn’t understand why the team and the player couldn’t meet in the midpoint, considering the fact that they were only 600K apart. Wang has won 38 games the last two seasons, however struggled for the Yankees in his playoff starts. Going forward for the Yanks, Wang should be projected to be a #3 starter, falling in after Joba Chamberlain and Phillip Hughes. Still the whole process most-likely hurts any relations that existed between Wang and his team.
• Brian Fuentes gets 5.05MM from the Rockies: He lost his closer job last season, however on the whole he is still a very good middle reliever. He could get save opportunities in 2008, building up his case when he hits the free agent market to hopefully get closer’s salary.
• Felipe Lopez gets 4.9MM from the Nationals: His 2005 season was outstanding, and he started running well in 2006, stealing 44 bases. He swiped 24 last season, however his numbers were down on the whole. If he rebounds, he should get a nice payday come 2009 when he’s a free agent.

With Erik Bedard agreeing to the midpoint at 7MM with the Mariners, and Brandon Phillips signing a 4yr/27MM deal (great move by the Reds), there aren’t too many remaining players who have cases impending. There will be at least two more in particular (and maybe two more on top of that):

• Francisco Rodriguez - LAA He’s seeking 12.5MM for 2008, while the club is offering 10MM. It’s unlikely that the midpoint will be reached before this week’s hearing. I expect Rodriguez to walk after the season as a free agent.
• Ryan Howard - PHI For a first-year player eligible, Howard is seeking 10MM while the club is offering 7MM. Howard should attempt to settle at the midpoint, since he will most likely lose his case before the panel this week as well.
• Oliver Perez - NYM Perez and the Mets are about 1.8MM apart in figures. There has been rumors of him seeking a long-term deal with the Mets, however he’s a free agent come season’e end, and he would probably be best to wait until the season is over to sign anything, assuming he repeats with good form in 2008.
• Mark Loretta - HOU Houston is waiting the outcome of this case to determine how much money they’ll have remaining to sign another starting pitcher. Loretta is seeking 4.9MM, while the club is offering 2.8MM. Like all the cases, I see the arbitrators siding with the club here, unless Loretta can state the same argument that got David Eckstein his absurd 4.5MM contract from the Blue Jays.

Two long terms were tentatively finalized today. The larger of the two was the six-year pact between the Colorado Rockies and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. This was discussed everywhere yesterday, the only thing that we don’t officially know is for how long the contract runs through (there’s an option year involved here.) Overall this is a great move by Colorado in my books. I only think that Tulowitzki will continue to improve, and will have his share of endorsement deals coming his way. The only risk that Colorado has to worry about is whether their star player gets injured, but then again that comes along with any long term deal.

The other deal brought about today was a four year/15.5MM deal between the St. Louis Cardinals and Yadier Molina. This deal takes care of his arbitration years, and is in the end sensible as well. Molina’s average rose last year to .275, however I wouldn’t expect it to go any higher. His power should double, and he’d be a great sleeper option at catcher in 2008 (I see him in double digit homer totals, catching in 130 or so games for the club.)

Again, both moves are very solid all across the board. On an aside, the Dodgers signed reliever Scott Proctor to a 1yr/1.115MM deal. It’s the going rate for middle relievers. However the odd thing to look at here is that Joe Torre will be managing him again (Proctor fled from New York in a July trade last year.) Proctor is a candidate to appear in 90 games this year, being one of Torre’s favorite arms out of the bullpen.

Recapping some of the news from today (some major, most small):

• The Royals and free agent pitcher Brett Tomko agreed on a 1yr/3MM contract. All offseason, I was praising the Royals for the deals that they made… this one I don’t quite understand. Tomko had horrible numbers last year, working in a pitching-friendly division. I honestly don’t see him doing any better throwing against the AL hitters, especially those in the AL Central. Tomko should win out the fifth starter spot, since his only major competition is Hideo Nomo. Still, a more sensible move would have been for the club to sign Bartolo Colon, he has higher upside based on his recent track record. I don’t project anything more than seven wins and a 5.10 ERA for Tomko in 2008.
• The Astros avoided arbitration by agreeing to terms with reliever Geoff Geary on a 1yr/1.1MM deal. That’s the going rate for middle relievers. I was always high on Geary, especially when he pitched for the Phillies. For some odd reason, Geary usually ends up between five and seven wins, more than the average reliever.
• I was hoping that this would be finalized by now, but apparently the Rockies are close to locking up shortstop Troy Tulowitzki for a 6yr/30MM deal (this rumor from Friday is apparently coming true.) The terms might not be exact at close, however it should buy out two years of free agency for him. I love deals like this, especially on behalf of the club. In the end, it’s much cheaper to lock up a player to a deal like this than to go year to year with contracts. Tulowitzki brings a great glove and bat, plus will be a fan favorite for years to come. He should be a perennial 30 home run hitter for the length of this deal and for years to come.

Everyone by now should know how super-agent Scott Boras coaches his players in regards to salary negotiations: go year to year through the arbitration process, earn a big pay day as a free agent. It’s a great approach, at least from Boras’ case, and I wanted to dig into a few players (or their teams) who are expected to be seeking long-term deals.

• Matt Holliday: Holliday, the runner up in the 2008 NL MVP voting, is in fact a Boras client. The Rockies have been rumored to be ready to prepare him a 4yr/60MM contract. For someone who will be consistently putting up 1.000 OBPS for the next few years, it makes sense for the team to offer him a big money deal. They did that with Todd Helton, and his power dipped thereafter. Knowing Boras, I wouldn’t be surprised if I see Holliday wait until after 2009 to become a free agent, and then leech on with a 100MM deal with some team thereafter. I’d give Holliday 5yr/80MM deal, but I wouldn’t go beyond five years.
• Carlos Pena: Like Holliday and Colorado, Tampa Bay is also trying to extend their first baseman for three more years in the 36MM ballpark. Personally I don’t see that as enough money. Boras (surprise, his agent) isn’t too happy about the team paying him a base salary of 800K for his 46HR season last year. He should be out seeking a Albert Pujols deal for his client, somewhere for 100MM or so. Pena’s numbers in 2007 were a bit of a surprise. Granted the power was there, he clubbed 27 as of only two years ago with the Tigers. Therefore in looking at his numbers, the power (46HR) isn’t exactly a fluke. His OBP (.411) and BA (.282), maybe. The proposed extension would be a good gamble by the Rays, but it’s going to take much more than that to keep him past the next two years.
• Adam LaRoche: The team recently signed him at 5MM for 2008, and is pursuing an extension to keep him in uniform for the years beyond 2009. LaRoche got off to a very slow start, however was white-hot in the second half, hitting over .320 with great power. Pittsburgh should take advantage of the slow start to extend him to something in the 5yr/45MM ballpark, something I could see happening.
• Ian Snell: The fellow Pirate approached his front office about an extension. The team scoffed his request, especially since he’s under control of the team for sometime now. His numbers are solid, especially his high strikeout rate. Pittsburgh should try to extend him like Matt Cain and Chris Young did with their teams, signing reasonable four year deals. Given the price of starting pitching, if Snell stays as consistent as he’s been, his salary could escalate very quickly.

If there’s one thing in common between pitching and a barrel of oil is that both commodities are over-valued right now. Big dollars are still being spent on starting pitching this year, though it seems not as bad as the 2006 offseason (Barry Zito is one contract that comes to mind.) There really weren’t any #1 starters on the free agency market this year. The “best” pitcher out there was Carlos Silva, and he happily collected 48MM this offseason.

What we’re starting to see now is that teams are more willing to take a chance on an arm which is a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Yesterday the Cardinals did that with Matt Clement. Today, two more arms were acquired; Josh Towers for 1.8MM (only 400K guaranteed) by the Rockies and Hideo Nomo by the Royals.

Nomo wasn’t exactly lighting up Winter ball this offseason, but apparently he showed more than enough for the Royals to take interest. Yes there are other expensive arms out there on the free agent market (the most-costly one which comes to mind is Kyle Lohse.) However the Royals didn’t want to invest the 40Mm or so needed to put him in uniform. The reason why is that they are set in the rotation. Gil Meche, Brian Bannister,Zack Grenkie and Kyle Davies make up a solid 1-4 in their rotation. Nomo, if lucky enough to get a roster spot, would take the fifth starter position.

There’s not much sense in investing so much money for someone who if anything will just eat innings. If the team’s lucky enough to make it to the playoffs, he’ll be the long man out of the bullpen for the best of seven series (he most likely won’t make the roster for a best of five.) The Royals could have put the money into one of those pitchers (and they do have money to spend), but they’re spending their money ever so wisely. The same thing goes with the Rockies. Though they extended Aaron Cook for three more years, they are now stocked with young arms including Jason Hirsh, Jeff Francis and Franklin Morales. Going on how well their young arms were developing, there’s no need to bring in a high-priced backend of the rotation arm.

Josh Towers was an interesting pickup though. If anything, he’ll put more competition on the already thick pool of available starters (they also signed Kip Wells this offseason.) Watching Baltimore play most of my life, I’ve seen Towers pitch quite a few times. He rarely walks hitters, rarely strikes them out and puts the ball in play (essentially what Carlos Silva does.) He does make mistakes though, and will give up the long ball. He has a tendency to get in the dog house with the manager, but he also has the ability to go on quality game tears. As to what I’m to expect from him, I’m uncertain. However the 1.8MM should be a strong incentive for him to pitch well in Spring and hopefully make the roster (he’ll have a 3MM option next year as well if he pitches well.)

However in looking at these two signings, they’ll most likely only pitch 200 innings between them, which is exactly what their respective teams are expecting. Granted they could get those from Silva, but the likelihood of them getting better starts is higher with Towers and Nomo (especially Towers in particular.)

Nothing against Silva however. He got his money, and he eats innings. I’m incredibly critical of the signing however since his track record in the Majors has been horridly inconsistent. He was below .500 last year, and the year before that almost spent most of his time in the bullpen. In looking at two of the other big signings from last offseason, Barry Zito and Miguel Bautista in particular, is that both pitchers were proven starters before they got their contracts (Zito was historically a quality innings-eater for the A’s.)

Nonetheless I’m glad to see that teams aren’t giving in to people like Scott Boras to sign their dead-armed clients (I’m referring to Lohse in particular.) In most cases, it’s best to develop from within, however pitching can either be acquired via big trade or by taking a gamble on injured goods (Clement, Mark Prior, et al.) Teams are now avoiding the 14MM/yr suprise pitchers. This could definitely include Oliver Perez next season as well, pending on whether his Dr. Jeckyl (2004, 2007) or Mr. Hyde (2005, 2006) side shows up in April.

With 2008 being fast upon us, I wanted to surmise with a list of my most-memorable stories of the 2007 season. Not all of them were favorable, but they did stick out in my head when making this list.

January

• Newest HOF inductees—Both Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were elected easily into the Hall. The nods couldn’t have went to two of the better guys in baseball.

February

• It was a bad month with the weather, it was also a dead month for baseball. The pitchers and catchers report… date was the only thing worth looking forward to.

March

• The Civil Rights Game—The Cardinals easily defeated the Indians in this contest, however it meant more than that to many. Baseball has come a long ways from where they were when the “Color Barrier” was broken.
• Look out Josh Hamilton—Hamilton, the Rule 5 pick selected by the Reds, was tearing things up in the Spring. Many sportswriters complained about Hamilton getting a second chance over others who deserved it more, but Hamilton delivered in 2007 with 19 HR. Even with his speed no longer there, his future couldn’t be any brighter now (currently as a Texas Ranger.)

April

• Making his Mark—The first of three no-hitters was thrown by Mark Buehrle on April 18th. Having been rumored to be traded at midseason, the White Sox ultimately wrapped up an extension with him, keeping him in uniform for a few more years.
• The Lightning (A)Rod—Alex Rodriguez finishes with 14 homers in April. As if this isn’t a sign of things to come for his statistically-historic 2007 season.
• Chase Wright serves ‘em up—I was actually listening to this game on ESPN Radio that Sunday evening, when he serves up the back-to-…-back homers to the Sox hitters. While I wasn’t paying attention at the time, this one did turn my head after hearing it.
• Troy does it All—Rockies’ rookie SS Troy Tulowitzki turns the 13th unassisted triple play in history. The funny thing was that after doing this, he then threw the ball to a base attempting to get a fourth out. His hustle and energy ultimately defined the 2007 Rockies team.

May

• Roger That—In an early May game in the late innings, Roger Clemens surprises the crowd over the jumbo-tron that he’ll be coming out of retirement (again) to pitch for the team in mid-summer. The prorated value of his contract was worth 28MM.
• The Mother’s Day Massacre—In a Mother’s Day game between the Orioles and the Red Sox, Jeremy Guthrie and the O’s took a 5-0 lead into the ninth inning. When it was all said and done, Boston trumps on the O’s new-look bullpen and walks away with a 6-5 win. This game essentially summarized the seasons that both the Red Sox and Orioles had.

June

• A JV No-Hitter—The second no-hitter of 2007 was thrown by Justin Verlander of the Tigers. He had electric stuff the whole evening in the win over the Brewers, reaching double-digit strikeouts. I have him as a lock for 20 wins in 2008, he’s a pitching stud.
• Milestones Galore—By this point, numerous hitting milestones were broken by Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas and Sammy Sosa.
• Front Office Best-Sellers would include Moneyball—Ever since the book was released, more and more teams are preparing their Amateur Draft strategy much like how Oakland did. The notable selection in this draft is David Price, though Baltimore’s future catcher Matt Weiters could be a star soon.
• Huff Hits ‘em All—In a game against the Angels, Aubrey Huff hits for the cycle. Strangely enough, the O’s did end up losing this game. It was that kind of season for Baltimore.
• Wait? What am I doing here again?—On June 27th this year, Erik Bedard and the Orioles shut out Roger Clemens and the Yankees 4-0. While this game seemingly denied Clemens his landmark 350th win, there was one key statistic in it: Clemens failed to strike out a batter over his sixth inning start. He went 200 starts with striking out at least one hitter. Clemens must have drank the wrong “coffee” that day…

July

• A Night full of All-Stars—The AL defeats the NL (once again) in the midsummer classic. Ichiro was named MVP (thanks to a rare inside the park homer), and as a result gets a lucrative contract from the M’s. The sad thing about this deal is that Torii Hunter gets the exact same one a few months later from the Mariners’ main competitor.
• Vladiator—The home run derby was won by Vladimir Guererro of the Angels. Oddly enough the Angels were in a power-outage weeks leading to the All Star game.
• Tragedy Strikes Colorado—One of the saddest occurrences in the 2007 season was when Minor League coach Mike Coolbaugh was struck by a line drive and was killed. The most inspiring part about this however was how the Rockies’ players took this to heart, and played around his family.
• The Erik Bedard Show—On 7/7 (going by ESPN’s game scores) Erik Bedard pitches the finest game in 2007, a 3-0 shutout against Texas. He allowed only two hits, striking out 15 hitters, no other baserunners. He’ll pitch another dandy against the Rangers again in August. This sets up the stage the next night for a monstrous Rangers’ wake up call…

August

• Don’t Remove the “Interim Tag”—Going back to the aformentioned “Rangers’ wake up call", the Orioles removed the interim tag on manager Dave Trembley, since the team was playing (admittedly) competitive baseball. This apparently angered the baseball gods, since the Rangers then scored a record number of runs in their 30-3 defeat of the O’s. I still can’t believe this happened, and many people have analyzied this game to death (the O’s had a nice lead in the fifth inning too.) The Rangers scored 40 runs in this double-header, and this point then sent the O’s into a downward spiral.
• More Player Records—This month also saw more player milestones hit. Inclued in this mix were Tom Glavine, Alex Rodriguez and Brandon Webb. Johan Santana also pitched the season’s high-strikeout game this month as well, tossing a 17K gem against the Rangers.
• Baker’s Flirt with Perfection In a game against the Royals, the Twins young starter Scott Baker takes a perfect game into the ninth, only to lose it on a base-on-balls. He ended up with a one-hitter.
• He Still Has It In Him—Garrett Anderson knocks in 10 runs in a rout against the Yankees. His second half was surprisingly productive.

September

• One More No-Hitter—Young Red Sox rookie hurler Clay Buchholz tosses a 9-0 no-hitter against the O’s. Oddly enough this performance immediately earned him a trip to the minors. That’s how deep the Red Sox pitching is.
• The 20-20-20-20 Club—Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins join this very-elusive club, hitting 20 homers, doubles, triples and stolen bases.
• The 30-30 club—Mets 3B David Wright and Reds 2B Brandon Phillips joined this club in September. Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez just missed the club, having a very-nice season in general.
• The Phillies’ Run Into the Playoffs—The Mets squandered a seven-game division lead in September, only to watch the Phillies storm in and win the division. This one had Mets fans scratching their heads for months. Jimmy Rollins lived up to his prediction.

October

• The One-Game Playoff—In easily the most-entertaining game of the year, the Rockies defeated the Padres in a come-from-behind extra-innings win (against Trevor Hoffman of all people) to sneak into the playoffs as the NL Wild Card team. The Rockies then stormed through the playoffs to win the NL Pennant.
• Comeback Players of the Year— Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena took the nods here, both of them having very-nice seasons (Pena in particular.)
• Say it Ain’t So Joe—Joe Torre, feeling snubbed by the Yankees, declined their offer to return and accepted a managerial position with the LA Dodgers. The Yankees filled the vacancy with Joe Girardi.
• The Mighty American League—Call the AL the “Arena League” all you want (I’m taking to you Kyle Lohse), the Red Sox stopped the red-hot Rockies with a World Series sweep. Oddly enough, the three no-hitters were thrown by AL hurlers…

November

• Award Winners—While Jake Peavy and Alex Rodriguez easily won their awards, Jimmy Rollins and C.C. Sabathia were coin tosses. The NL ROY voting was very close too though.
• Taking Satanism out of Baseball—The Devil Rays officially dropped the “Devil” from their team name in November. This won’t necessarily add 5,000 more fans a game, nor will it add 10 wins to their 2008 total. Their young pitching stockpile should do that.
• A Historic Contract—After deciding to opt out of his contract (nonetheless during the Yankees’ ALDS series), ARod then fends off contraversy and the heat taken by actions of his agent Scott Boras to ultimately sign a 10yr/275MM contract with the Yankees. Yes it’s a great amount of money, but Rodriguez puts up the numbers to back up the salary.
• Another Sad Month—Major League starting pitcher Joe Kennedy passes away this month, at the young age of 28. Given the fact that most of the games I watch throughout the year are in the AL East, the news of this came as a harsh shock to me.
• The Newest Angel in the Outfield—Waking up to this one on ESPN Radio on Thanksgiving Day, my jaw dropped to the floor when hearing that the Angels locked up free agent Torii Hunter for 5 years at 90MM.

December

• Not You Glenallen Hill!—On the eve of the release of the Mitchell Report, the Orioles trade Miguel Tejada to the Astros for a handful of young players. The next day his name surfaces on the report. Baseball is ready to move on, hopefully.
• Here Come The Fire Sales—The Oakland A’s and Florida Marlins started the talent shed, shipping Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Dan Haren out of town.