Late Innings

News item of today: Andre Either signed a 3.1MM deal. Finally the corner outfielders are starting to sign, as in we saw this past weekend with Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel. Will Corey Hart and Ryan Zimmerman come to terms now? I’m not sure. Still we’re starting to see fewer arbitration cases than we did last year. Last year we had eight cases, this year we have three so far (the players winning two of them.) This year with teams locking down their players (notably Ryan Howard), arbitration isn’t as fun this year as it was years in the past. Granted the month is still young…

Also, Edwin Encarnacion agreed to terms on a two-year deal. He’ll make 7.6MM over the next two, leaving one year of arbitration for him (2011) on the table. If Encarnaction goes deep 35 times, as projected by RotoProfessor, then this deal will look good for Walt Jocketty and Co., regardless of how bad Edwin will look in the field.

A number of small deals were done these past weeks, and obviously I’m not able to comment on them as they each come in. Any ways I’ll address the pros and cons of these moves, and give each signing a grade as well, for kicks.

Mets sign starting pitcher Tim Redding

If there was a pitcher that I wished Baltimore would have signed, I was hoping it was him. Redding is a little better than a fourth starter, and as I brought up a few days ago, there was a great post up on Beyond the Box Score which goes into great detail explaining that. Any ways Redding is now part of the Mets’ property, and if you’re a Mets fan you shouldn’t be any happier about this signing.

Redding should be counted on for 180 innings in 2008, however a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are a likelihood. Any ways this is a one year deal, and at 2.25MM they got a bargain. This move gives the Mets some more leverage against the Philies, and also weakens their divisional opponents the Washington Nationals (if that’s even possible.) Hopefully Redding can be used as the fourth starter, pushing Mike Pelfrey back to the fifth spot to cut down his workload from last season. If the Mets sign Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe, that would also help.

Grade: A-

Red Sox sign pitcher John Smoltz

If you do a search, Theo Epstein also inked outfielders Mark Kotsay and Rocco Badelli to contracts this week (I’ll leave this as homework.) He also signed pitcher Brad Penny to a 5MM contract back in December as well. In either case with all of these deals, Boston got themselves quality outfield and pitching depth, and they didn’t over-pay for any of it. Smoltz and Penny are intriguing options themselves. If they revert back to their 2007 form this season, the Red Sox could be a dangerous team for an already difficult AL East. I know it’s a good problem to have, but Clay Buchholz is currently seventh on the team’s depth chart now. However I don’t see any reason why the team should trade him for catching.

Grade: B+

Brewers sign closer Trevor Hoffman

The Brewers snagged themselves a solid ninth inning option, however they’ll be paying Hoffman 6MM in 2009; they had to give up an extra 2MM to convince him not to sign with the Dodgers.

Even in midst of the Padres’ abysmal season last year, Hoffman still managed to save 30 games, or roughly half of their team’s wins. Keep in mind that he’ll be moving out of the “cavernous” Petco, but that shouldn’t be a problem. 2008 was just a bad year in general for the Padres, Hoffman and everyone else included. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoffman rebound nicely in 2009. There’s clearly some upside here.

Grade: B

Reds resign infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

He’ll get 2MM in 2009. It’s not a bad contract by any means (I expected Hairston to pick up more money), however he’ll be back for the Reds and is a good threat for 30 steals, 80 runs, double digit home runs and a .290 average. Hairston’s versatility is key here, as is can play any of the outfield positions as well (especially given that the team lost Ryan Freel back in December to the Orioles.) Hairston can also serve as a corner infielder if need be.

The irony about this deal is that the Padres signed his brother Scott Hairston to a 1.25 deal yesterday as well. Still, Hariston is a much better option than Willy Tavares.

Grade: B-

Update: Per Roch, the two prospects are “Brandon Waring, a 22-year-old third baseman, and Justin Turner, a 24-year-old second baseman.”

This was mentioned yesterday, and is all but certain to now happen. The Reds are to acquire Orioles backstop Ramon Hernandez and 1MM in cash for Ryan Freel and two “mid-level prospects.” Originally I wasn’t too happy about Baltimore chipping in the extra money (due to the clear talent difference between Hernandez and Freel), but again, he gets to more prospects. These will most-likely be announced after the deal is ratified by the Office of the Commissioner (since there’s cash being moved in this transaction.)

As an O’s fan, I like this move. Freel is a fourth outfielder and will be paid 4MM in 2009, but one thing good about him is the fact that he gets on base. He also plays exceptional defense. Once again Andy MacPhail is able to maximize his return on another trade. Hernandez is due 8MM in 2009, and has a 8.5MM club option in 2010, with a 1MM buyout.

With this stated, the Orioles need a catcher to bridge the gap to super-prospect Matt Wieters is ready. I’m pretty sure that he’ll open the season in Triple-A Norfolk next year, and have his call up around May 31st. There’s not any reason as to do this, other than to push back his service time by a year. He’ll be a Super Two most likely (that is have a fourth year of arbitration), however he’ll be under team control for another year. This is what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun, and the Reds did with Jay Bruce. On an aside, the Orioles are all but certain to be moving on from Jon Garland, who is demanding 13MM a year. Good luck with that Jon.

Ramon hit .257/.308/.406 last year with 15 HR (Baltimore Sun photo by Gene Sweeney Jr. / April 3, 2006.)

“Day One” of the Winter Meetings is here, and part of me wishes that I was in the Bellagio with the rest of the reporters and front office personnel. As to what goes on at the meetings, I’m not sure. Still I’m sure that GMs try to slip Scott Boras a roofie or two. The last thing he would want is to wake up and realize that one of his players was signed below market-value. Maybe this could be a ploy that Andy MacPhail could use… I would love to see Mark Teixeira in Baltimore in 2009; 15MM a year would be even better.

The Trade That Did Happen Yesterday

Everyone expected Jermaine Dye to be a Red last night, however team officials on both clubs quickly dismissed that rumor. One trade that did happen last night was with the Tigers, who got an above-average backstop in Gerald Laird. His defense is solid, and he also has a solid bat too, though without solid power. He’s under team control for two more years, and being a Boras client, he should cost around 4MM a year during this span.

I like this move on the Tigers’ behalf, and I also like it on the Rangers’ as well (Baseball America discusses the two arms dealt.) Jon Daniels is presumably under orders to cut salary, and Laird is a logical fit to go, given the team’s current catching logjam. It’s not a bad return by any means, and many are speculating that Moscoso could be the next Jair Jurjens, which going by last season’s results isn’t a bad thing.

Daniels still has too many corner-outfield, 1B, DH types remaining now as well, given David Murphy, Chris Davis, and even Max Ramirez could all offer the same flexibility. Milton Bradley’s departure opens up a slot for one of them, and I could still see Daniels dealing Hank Blalock to someone. Again, at 6.2MM he’s likely to move, and the Giants have been rumored to be interested. He’d be a great pickup if they grabbed him, and he shouldn’t cost them a Jonathan Sanchez (as many Rangers fans are hoping.)

On an aside, I wonder where Brandon Inge sits in the team’s 2009 plans…

Shortstop Plethora

The other piece of the Giants’ left-side of the infield features newly-signed Edgar Renteria, inked to a 18.5MM deal over two years. The dollar amount surprises me, but I don’t think it’s a bad move that’ll hurt them for years to come (think Barry Zito.) And I think he’ll revert back to his NL-friendly numbers. Still with that all said, there are way too many shortstops on the market today. The other name that’s been rumored to be traded is Jack Wilson, and the asking price that’s on him from the Pirates is high.

I’m not sure why any team would cough up two plus prospects for (potentially) two years of expensive baseball of Wilson. Grated his glove is good, but then again there are other options who deliver the same defensive talents that he does, notably Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Cesar Izturis.

Update: Everett signed with the Tigers today for 1MM.

…

Rafeal Furcal turned down a four year/36MM offer from the A’s, and many are expecting him to now resign with the Dodgers. His agent Paul Kinzer is seeking 52MM over the same term, and the injury he had last year prevented him from receiving any classification from Elias (the Dodgers won’t receive any compensation if he leaves.) Personally I’d rather see Baltimore sign him for 10MM a year than spend 20MM a year on Tex. His four years in Los Angeles were very good. He was the front-runner for the MVP last season, before the back injury came into play. He’s not as fragile as many writers make it seem… Still ESPN and Jayson Stark believe that he’ll sign his contract this week.

Some other random notes from today:

• The Phillies and Jamie Moyer are still hung up in dollar discussions. He was very solid in 2008, and I see no reason why he should receive a pay cut from his 8.5MM he clearly earned last year (in comparison, consider what Carlos Silva did last year.) The team might regret not offering the Type A free agent arbitration.
• The Mariners obtained another 1B/OF/DH in Chris Shelton, Jack Zduriencik’s second move.

• MASN’s Roch Kubatko is under the impression that Ramon Hernandez is to be moved this week, as part of a salary swap. Apparently a framework for a deal is already in place, as he writes:

  In return, the Orioles would get a utility-type player who could move from the infield to the outfield.

  He mentions the Reds as being the suitor here, and Tim Dierkes of MLBTR speculates that Ryan Freel is the most-likely candidate (that was my guess too.) I wouldn’t mind Freel personally. Tossing out the two DUIs, he at least gets on base often and plays plus defense. That alone probably caught MacPhail’s eye. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun also chimes in here on this rumor.

• More on Roch, teams are apparently asking about Daniel Cabrera. He also speculates that the O’s could non-tender Cabrera… speaking of non-tenders there has been a rumor out about the Mariners non-tendering Erik Bedard, but Roch is getting the impression that they’ll offer him a contract for 2009. People were speculating a possible return of him to Baltimore, with news of Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie hanging out in Las Vegas this week (the Adam Jones trade would only look more lopsided if this happened.)

Update (10:28 PM): this was supposedly shot down by White Sox officials.

I saw this on RotoWorld tonight, as well as a few other sites. Long story short, apparently Cincinnati traded Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye. Dye will be a free agent after next season, and Bailey is under team control for a good five years with the White Sox.

I’m not sure why the Reds would do this. Granted Dye brings pop, but Bailey is a stud in need of a new environment. Then again this is one of the moves that Kenny Williams makes that nobody knows about. First he got Gavin Floyd, then John Danks. I’m starting to see how the White Sox build their rotations… yes this is a steal on the White Sox’ behalf. Bailey is someone you build a rotation around.

Here’s another link backing this claim. BTBS also contributes here. One more link. This trade is apparently a done deal. Expect this trade to happen early this week, during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

Dye averaged about 33 HR in four seasons with the White Sox (CNN SI.)

I’ve gotten a few emails recently about this question, and I wanted to address it for everyone to know. Edison Volquez is not a rookie. To clarify the rules:

• 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues
• 45 days on the active roster of a major league club (excluding time on the disabled list or any time after rosters are expanded on September 1)

He pitched about 70 innings in parts of three seasons for the Rangers before this, so he was clearly disqualified. If Volquez was a rookie, his name would be mentioned alongside Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, both players who are strong candidates for Rookie of the Year. He was traded for Josh Hamilton, both players made the All-Star team in 2007, and the rest everyone knows. Many people thought this trade was pointless last year, however I loved it. I even wrote the following back in December last year:

Hamilton came at a price, since Volquez was easily one of their best pitchers to make his way up through Texas’ system recently. Still the move benefits both clubs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton hits 25HR in a strong Rangers lineup.

Hot dog, boy was I right with this guess. Now everyone agrees that this trade was huge last season. Any ways that should settle this debate. Any more emails about this will be directed to this post. Now to get shitfaced…

Volquez went 17-6, 3.21 for the Reds in 2008 in 196.0 innings. He struck out 206 hitters. (mlb.com)

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

I should have written about this yesterday morning when the news of this struck, however I didn’t get around to doing this until today. Like virtually everyone, this news came as a shock to me. Reds owner Bob Castellini essentially pulled the trigger on this one twenty one games into the season. Yes the Reds were 9-12, and playing at the .429 clip they’d be on pace to win 69 games during the season. However twenty one games into the season is an unfair barometer (look at the Tigers, who are suddenly turning things around thanks to the fountain of youth known as “Rangers pitching”.)

Jayson Stark has an outstanding piece up on ESPN now basically questioning the whole thing. Granted the season is young, however Castellini made a few enemies the other day with this move. There are far worse GMs out there, and I didn’t expect Krivsky to be the first to go. As Stark highlighted in his piece, some of Krivisky’s accomplishments:

• Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena
• Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens
• Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger
• Josh Hamilton for 50K (only to later be spun for the talented Edison Volquez)

The funny thing about the Reds is that the team isn’t quite built to win now. Granted they have a wonderful mix of talent and veterans. They’re very similar to the composition to the Dodgers, however the Dodgers are much further along in the game. Some comparisons to look at:

• James Looney over Joey Votto (edge LA)
• Matt Kemp and Andre Either over Jay Bruce (yet to make his MLB debut) (edge LA)
• Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw (albeit yet to make his debut) over Volquez, Homer Bailey and Jonny Cueto (edge LA for the time being)
• Andy LaRoche over Edwin Encarnacion (edge CIN, though LaRoche should have been further along)

The Dodgers are a legitimate playoff contender since they have a veteran rotation and much deeper bullpen. The Reds’ rotation is anchored by the ever solid Aaron Harrang, Arroyo (rocked yesterday), two young arms in Cueto and Volquez, and the disappointing Josh Fogg. Given the state the Reds are in, with most of the team still learning on the job, 9-12 is a solid start. I’m not exactly sure what precipitated Castellini to make this decision. Yes there are a few upstart teams less talented who are winning (see Baltimore and Oakland.) Maybe the Felipe Lopez/Austin Kearns trade still stuck in his head. Castellini should have waited until midseason to make this move, however it’s not like Cincinnati hasn’t had its share of vociferous and obtrusive owners:

The late Marge Schott, walking the one time team president.

If Krivsky did anything right in the offseason, it was holding onto their incredible young talent. He didn’t acquiesce to ridiculous demands Andy MacPhail made for Erik Bedard (involving Bruce and others) or Billy Beane made for Joe Blanton (Cueto.) He retained these incredible youngsters. Aside from the fact, Walt Jocketty could potentially inherit one hell of a team in the near future.

However looking at now, the Reds were expected to win. When 12MM a year was shelled out for four years of Francisco Cordero (an albeit expensive yet needed arm to fix the bullpen), that meant that they were ready to compete with the Cubs and Brewers. I unfortunately don’t see it that way. Both teams are better all around and have deeper talent. The Reds were expected to play season “sleeper” instead. Still in looking at the team as they are now (starting Jerry Hariston Jr. over Bruce as an example), it was unfair to Krivsky to drop the blame all on him.

Tampa Bay’s talented third baseman Evan Longoria got a monster deal on Friday. To recap some of the great recent stories:

The Longoria Lockdown

When news came out on Friday about Tampa Bay having a big press release coming, many people expected them to sign free agent Barry Bonds. However that wasn’t quite the case. The Rays awarded their young third baseman Evan Longoria with a 6 year/17.5MM contract extension, where the total compensation could be worth 44MM over nine seasons. In other words, even though Longoria only played six games when the contract was signed, this deal could turn out to be a steal for the Rays, especially if his defense and offense are as good as many have been touting for some time now.

Longoria, the third overall pick in the 2006 Amateur Draft, was hitting .300 at the time of the extension. When this extension is over, he’ll be 31 years old, and in his prime. If all stays well for the hitter, he should have a monster contract coming his way as a free agent then. Longoria clearly traded away some dollars here for security. And when Tampa Bay put him in the minors at the start of the season, they said they weren’t doing this to delay his service time. Apparently they weren’t lying here.

Regardless this is a great move by the Rays, another victory in the leverage of the small market teams against the large market franchises. Hopefully Cincinnati now will follow the same thing by extending outfielder Jay Bruce once he makes his debut (the same thing goes with first baseman Joey Votto and their wealth of young pitchers.) San Diego should do the same with Chase Headley when he arrives this summer.

The “No Homers” Club

Speaking of Cincinnati, everyone is well aware of what Jonny Cueto and Edison Volquez are doing in the Reds rotation currently. However are people forgetting about Homer Bailey?

Cueto is a great talent, however Bailey has #1 potential. People remember him last season, walking one hitter for every hitter he struck out in his rookie season. However when he came back in September, he appeared to have everything together. Cincinnati put him in Triple-A at the start of the season, and he’s been dominating. In all fairness, Homer’s ready. It’s time to pull the plug on the Josh Fogg experiment.

By the way, has anyone noticed how well Votto is hitting right now?

Also from the 2006 Amateur Draft…

Speaking of Longoria, the pitcher selected two spots above him at #1 by the Royals made his Major League Debut this afternoon. Luke Hovechar had a five run fourth, and then a rough fifth inning this afternoon against the A’s, which pushed him out early. He’s filling in for John Bale, who’s on the disabled list now with dead arm. With Brett Tomko pitching as well as he is right now, it’ll be interesting to see who gets the last spot in the Royals’ rotation.

Enough of Kyle Farnsworth

Yankee reliever Kyle Farnsworth throws behind Boston hitter Manny Ramirez last week, and now has a suspension coming his way. Farnsworth is appealing this one, and had the following to say:

It wasn’t my intention to hit him. I don’t understand it. I didn’t hit him. No one was ejected. So I don’t know why he ruled the way he did.

He backed this by saying that the ball “slipped” out of his hand on that pitch. Right. Farnsworth has a history of incidents like this, being suspended for three games in 2003 and five games in 2005. In all fairness, Major League Baseball needs to implement a three strikes rule, and rid the league of players like this. It’s about time that baseball gave up on Farnsworth, the same way that the Cubs did a few years back.

Tejada’s Overnight Aging Problem

As many people saw this week, news was revealed that Miguel Tejada will be turning 34 next month, instead of 32. The Astros and the Orioles apparently don’t care, since he’s hitting regardless. Tejada could become a free agent at the end of the season, however this news is the latest shock making the December trade between the two teams look more and more strange.

Many fans in Baltimore think that Tejada was just like Albert Belle, probably the most surliest player to play the game in the past twenty years. That’s not the case however. Tejada, though unhappy playing on a losing team in Baltimore, at least hustled and played hard. The time he was in Baltimore was much better than the time that Belle was. It’s a shame that both marriages ended up on sour notes.

Jonny Cueto finally made his big-league debut this afternoon against the Diamondbacks. He was stellar today, taking a perfect game into the sixth inning only to have it broken up on a Justin Upton home run. That blast didn’t rattle his confidence though, since he quickly retired the next six hitters he faced. On the whole this was his line from this afternoon:

Ten strikeouts in his debut, that’s something Diesuke Matsuzaka did last year against the Royals in his debut, however Cueto allowed only one hit today. On the whole this is something for Reds fans to definitely be happy about. Some people criticized them for trading away Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez last winter from the Rangers, but as anyone can tell you it never hurts to have too much pitching. Volquez looked sharp this spring, and should be starting for the Reds tomorrow. He and Cueto should be fixtures in their rotation for a few years, as well as that Homer Bailey fellow, as soon as he gets himself in gear in the minors with his control.

The best move the Reds made this offseason was by not trading away their Magnificent Four, that is Bailey, Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. The first three of those names were rumored to be going to Baltimomre for Erik Bedard, along with third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. After that trade happened, Billy Beane then said that in order for the Reds to have Joe Blanton, they’d have to cough up Cueto. No dice.

On the whole, the Reds have the makings of an impressive rotation on the way, if you’d also include current All-Star Aaron Harrang and Bronson Arroyo, both of whom signed modest extensions a year ago. And the best thing about this is that this dangerous rotation would be in place for many years to come. Now, assuming the Reds aren’t in a playoff push come September, Dusty Baker should do the best thing with Cueto and shut the kid down. To preserve their star in the making, keep him at around 160 innings in 2008.

On a side note, I don’t get the Dan Wheeler extension…

For the most part, every team has been finalizing their rosters this weekend before tomorrow’s official Opening Day start. Most teams have their lineups and 25-man rosters set now. In looking at the notable moves from this afternoon:

• Los Angeles (NL): The Dodgers (and Joe Torre) finally did the right thing by benching Juan Pierre (who had a poor Spring) in favor of Andre Either. Either makes much more sense than Pierre, who though hit .293 and stole 63 bases in 2007, doesn’t have much else to offer at the plate. The logical step now is to attempt to move Pierre, who though is owed over 36MM the next four years by the Dodgers.

  Yesterday’s starter Esteban Loaiza, though getting shelled by Boston in yesterday’s high-attendance exhibition game, has the fifth starter job for at least a few months. Clayton Kershaw, though dominant in the Spring, will open the season in Double-A. He should be called up and in their rotation by July.

• Baltimore: The Orioles finally released outfielder Jay Gibbons this afternoon, allowing Scott Moore to have a spot on the team as a utility man. The team will eat 11MM of Gibbons’ contract which runs through 2009.

  In other team news, they assigned outfielder Tike Redman to Triple-A Ottawa. He’ll most likely be up as soon as they can, pending on whether the team can move Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008.

  Also in case anyone is interested, Luis Hernandez is their Opening Day shortstop. He made six errors this Spring, however he’s out of options. It’s a shame that Baltimore doesn’t have any better options at this position.

• New York (NL): The Mets named Mike Pelfrey their fifth starter. He beat out Orlando Hernandez for the spot, though Hernandez had more velocity with a changed delivery in his last start. The team could still acquire a starter (like a Claudio Vargas) since many feel that the Mets don’t believe Pelfrey is the best option now. Still, it doesn’t hurt to see him in the rotation.
• Cincinnati: Manager Dusty Baker finally came out and made the statement that Scott Hatteberg will be the team’s first baseman out of camp instead of rookie Joey Votto. This means that their two top challengers for the Rookie of the Year (Votto and outfielder Jay Bruce) will get to see playing time come middle of the season. At least we’ll get to see what Jonny Cueto will do in their rotation.
• Chicago (AL): The White Sox named Alexi Ramirez as their Opening Day center fielder. He had the best bat in Spring Training, and if he hits as well as he did to open the season, the team will need to find a way to keep him in the lineup once Jerry Ownens returns. It’s a shame that the team didn’t take this same approach with the Joe Crede/Josh Fields situation.

There was a rumor floating around this morning of a proposed trade between Boston and Chicago which would have sent Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp to the Cubs for pitcher Jason Marquis and outfielder Sam Fuld. Apparently it’s not true (supposedly an agreement was met.)

The Cubs are still interested in Crisp however, but Boston is apparently after more than Marquis (the package would start with pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.) Crisp is owed roughly 11MM over the next two years, however that’s small in comparison to the 17MM owed to Marquis. This move didn’t seem to make sense, especially from Boston’s standpoint. Theo Epstein usually avoids pitchers like Marquis, however if the Josh Beckett injury is worse than reported, he’s still worth the interest.

Crisp would be a welcome addition for the Cubs, and his salary isn’t overly obtrusive. He’s unhappy about being relegated to a bench role, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury apparently the incumbent (before yesterday’s three hit game, Ellsbury was 1-16 this spring.) Also in a slump is the Cubs’ young center field prospect Felix Pie, who tailed off after his early two spring homers. Ultimately I do see him going to Baltimore with Gallagher for second baseman Brian Roberts. Not to beat the deadest of horses anymore, Peter Gammons still believes that the trade is on.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged under 14 wins a season (MLB.com photo)

There have been rumors and speculations all off-season about how Baltimore was planning on bringing back free agent Corey Patterson for another season, even with Adam Jones most likely given control of his position. This isn’t going to be the case however, with Patterson accepting a minor league deal with the Reds this evening. I’m honestly shocked that he couldn’t get better, if not even a major league contract. He should have the position all to himself however, since as many have pointed out the Reds would love to delay Jay Bruce’s debut to push back the hands on his service clock.

With Patterson gone, the only viable center fielder left is Kenny Lofton. The Cubs are supposedly interested in Boston’s Coco Crisp however. With the Brian Roberts trade talk finally starting to heat up again, I’m starting to see that young Felix Pie could be heading to Baltimore. I’ll stand by my prediction from yesterday, that Baltimore acquires Pie, Sean Gallagher, and Eric Patterson (Corey’s brother) for Roberts. I’m also starting to see Jason Marquis being moved for Crisp. I’m not sure as to which will be the precursor for the other, but if Baltimore receives my suggested haul, then Andy MacPhail definitely receives my respect. It would be the most-lopsided trade of the off-season hands down.

Yesterday evening, the Reds struck a deal with free agent hurler Jeremy Affeldt, with the terms of the deal being around 3MM or so. I remember earlier in the offseason about reports stating that he wasn’t going to settle for anything less than a multi-year deal with at least three years and 8MM per year. Oh well; that’s been the story of the offseason, aim high with the demands and then settle with something reasonable (this approach clearly benefitted David Eckstein.)

Affeldt immediately shoots up the depth chart to be the teams #3 starter, behind ace Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. The reason this is the case is because of their manager, Dusty Baker, who has a strong preference to award positions to veterans over young rookies. Affeldt shouldn’t be anything more than a one-year rental for the Reds, and they should have no reason to keep him beyond that. He’ll get his 30-35 starts, maybe win 9-12 games with a ERA slightly above four.

The team is fortunate enough to have four of the best prospects in all of baseball, that is outfielder Jay Bruce, corner-infielder Joey Votto, and pitchers Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. For the sake of this discussion, you can also include the young third base prospect Edwin Encarnacion and shortstop Jeff Keppinger into the mix.

In looking at everyone’s role in 2008, all five of them might not have starting jobs at the start of the season, unless someone catches fire in Spring Training. There’s veteran competition at all spots: Encarnacion has to deal with Andy Phillips, Keppinger has Alex Gonzalez, Votto got Scott Hatteberg and Bruce has Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel. Baker will most likely give the spots to the veterans out of the gate, though Bailey will most likely be pitching as the #4 or #5 starter (depending on how well Edinson Volquez pitches in Spring Training), and Encarnacion should be the third baseman based on his 2007 season. However at the end of the season, all of these players will have the positions solidified as their own for 2009.

That’s the great thing about Dusty Baker; that is most young players in the end succeed, since they’re not being rushed into the everyday lineups. Bailey had his break last year in the majors, and though he looked poor initially, after he came back from his injury he looked very solid in September. In the end he’ll most likely be the team’s ace, and the front office will look smart for not shipping him off as part of a trade for Erik Bedard (the Affeldt acquisition quelled any hope of this happening by the way.)

If I was to project everyone for 2008:

• Bailey: He’ll definitely look a little better this year. Considering the fact that he’s pitching out of the back-end of the rotation, I wouldn’t see more than nine wins and a 4.20 ERA. His K/BB ratio should improve though from last year (28 K and BB in 45.1 IP.)
• Cueto: The rotation is very deep with young talent, and I see the Reds giving him a whole year at Triple-A to season.
• Bruce: His competition isn’t that productive, and he should be in the everyday lineup come May, and will most likely be moved to a corner-outfield spot after the season is over (and Adam Dunn leaves.) Frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year (in my books), and I’d see him with .280/22/85/10 for the season. His numbers might be better than that, since he’s hit pitching very well at every stop along in the minors.
• Votto: Bruce’s main competition for the Rookie of the Year honors, his talent should bench Hatteberg in May also. In the end, he’ll be a perrenial 30 homer hitter with great speed, but in 2008 I see him at .295/20/75/15.
• Encarnacion: He should have third base out of the gate in 2008, and it’ll be his to keep. I like him as a .290/25/100 hitter.
• Keppinger: Fans loved his production last year in limited play. He might be given the SS job out of Spring Training, though I don’t see it. I see a nice season from him though, something around .290/10/60/10 in around 400 at bats or so.

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves