Late Innings

Clay Buchholz is out in the cold, in regards to a rotation spot in Boston. The rotation is stacked, with Theo Epstein bringing in affordable veterans Brad Penny and John Smoltz. However Buchholz is an injury away from a spot at the back end of the rotation. Of course, if Tim Wakefield gets hurt, or starts out ineffective, Buchholz will get a chance to prove himself again.

Last year was a wash for Buchholz, though we could possibly have attributed it to his breakup with Erica Ellyson. As a result, he went 2-9 with a 68 ERA+. Ouch.

2009 Projection: 10W, 155.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 137 SO (7.95 K/9), 41 BB (2.38 BB/9), 1.29 WHIP

Sorry, Buchholz is too good of a talent for me to give up on. I think he’ll rebound in fashion in 2009, and be right behind Jon Lester in the 2010 rotation. He’s clearly making his case this spring as well, giving up only one earned run in 19.2 IP. He has 15 SO to go with that as well.

Boston, let it be known, has an unfair amount of pitching depth up on the big club. Per the RotoWorld depth charts, lets look at their starters:

1. Josh Beckett ( R )
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka ( R )
3. Jon Lester ( L )
4. Tim Wakefield ( R )
5. Brad Penny ( R )
6. Clay Buchholz ( R )
7. Michael Bowden ( R )
8. Junichi Tazawa ( R )

And now to their excellent relief corps:

1. Jonathan Papelbon ( R )
2. Hideki Okajima ( L )
3. Takashi Saito ( R )
4. Manny Delcarmen ( R )
5. Justin Masterson ( R )
6. Javier Lopez ( L )
7. Ramon Ramirez ( R )
8. Wes Littleton ( R )

Now why for the odd topic? Not sure, keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight. It would be humorous to see Obama as the commish for one day though. And the one thing I’m sure he’d go after is the Red Sox and their pitching stockpile. It’s just not fair that teams like the Rangers don’t have the pitching up on the big team now… um we need more of these.

…is now over, at least for the time being:

It took nearly three months, but the Boston Red Sox have reached agreement to bring back catcher Jason Varitek on a one-year, $5 million contract, pending a physical and the execution of final details, two major league sources said Friday.

The contract would include a 2010 club option for $5 million. If the Red Sox decline their option, Varitek would hold a player option for $3 million.

Granted there are more details here, but wow, there’s been so much attention over a player who had a lousy season in 2008. There weren’t too many other options available for Theo Epstein to pick from however, at least on the free agent catching market. He’ll need to start looking towards the future however, whether it be in the draft or via trade. Still for the time being the whole mess is done. Honestly I was hoping that the negotiations would have gotten more caustic, it makes good material. And then Scott Boras could as for a piece of the “stimulus package":

It’s all about job creation.

Seriously.

According to a baseball source, the deadline by which (Jason) Varitek must accept or decline the Red Sox’ latest contract offer is set for 8:30 a.m. Friday, leaving less than a day for the matter to play out. According to the same source, Varitek is seriously considering the option of sitting out the 2009 season and/or retiring rather than accepting the contract offer made to him last week.

In that proposal, the Red Sox gave Varitek the choice of a one-year contract for a guaranteed $5 million or a one-year deal for $5 million with a vesting option. In the latter scenario, Varitek would earn another $5 million if the team exercises the option for 2010, and $3 million if the option is exercised by the player.

I wrote about this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Players who love the game are taking pay cuts left and right, including Jon Garland (~5MM), Mark Kotsay (~7MM), Andy Pettite (~10MM), and Pat Burrell (~5MM.) And even though Federal Interest rates are at 0%, deflation is still hitting the baseball world hard, being in “the worst economic times since the Great Depression” and all.

Varitek and Boras need to get out of their bubble. He should be happy that the club has offered them two contracts. However common sense dictates that there is no market whatsoever for an aging catcher coming off a .220, 73 OPS+ season. It’s that simple. A 5MM contract for those numbers is an incredibly generous offer on behalf of the Red Sox. It’s a shame that “the captain” and “the super agent” can’t figure this out. Seriously.

In case anyone cares, this Saturday will be a big day for free agent catcher Jason Varitek, who’s currently caught between “a rock” and “a hard place”:

By Saturday, it should become known whether the Red Sox catcher and captain will be returning to the team this season.

A baseball source confirmed yesterday that the Sox presented Varitek with a deadline to their proposal. A baseball source indicated last night that Varitek was given “one week” to make a decision in a letter he and agent Scott Boras received Friday.

According to another baseball source, Varitek has the choice of a one-year, $5 million contract or a one-year offer for a guaranteed $5 million with a dual option for 2010.

In the latter scenario, the Sox have a $5 million option for the 2010 campaign. Should the team decline the option, Varitek can return at a salary of $3 million, essentially guaranteeing him $8 million over two seasons.

The one-year offer may prove more appealing to Varitek because it would allow him to reenter the market next fall, at which point he might have greater earning power.

Going by my count, this is the second contract that the Red Sox offered to Varitek. He shot down their arbitration offer back in December, and like a lot players in similar situations today (e.g. Jon Garland, Juan Cruz), most likely wishes he could go back in time.

If Varitek shoots down offer #2, it’ll all but certain end the Red Sox’s tenure of their team captain. From here Theo Epstein will probably pursue a young, above-average catcher (e.g. Miguel Montero, Jarrod Saltalamaccia.) And Vartiek will of course be in a deep “0 and two hole.” And judging by how well he hit last year in this situation…

Before I start this little “see I told you so", I want to pay some great props to the ever exciting Roto Professor. He interviewed Baltimore Sun beat writer Jeff Zrebiec about what’s in store for the Orioles. As a Baltimore fan, these questions were fun to read…

***

Any ways we’re about a month or so after the arbitration offers were handed out by the teams to their Type ( A | B ) free agents. Granted there was some oversight on both sides. Bobby Abreu is still fighting for a three year, 48MM contract (fat chance dawg.) Maybe the Yankees should have offered him arbitration… any ways on to the other end of things, we’ve been having to hear about the poverty cases that are developing by the players who turned down their offers of arbitration. Notably this list includes Type A free agents Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and everyone’s favorite captain, Jason Varitek.

Sucka.

I’ve talked about the Varitek situation before, and I predicted the fallout weeks back about it. However now we’re starting to see this story envelope itself out to the financial markets… from Blogging Stocks today:

Varitek’s decision to reject the offer of arbitration probably cost him upwards of $5 million – maybe closer to $10 million.

Here’s the question: Why didn’t Varitek just accept arbitration and avoid this whole predicament? According to MLB.com: “Varitek was not aware that teams would have to surrender a No. 1 Draft pick to sign him, and he takes full responsibility for his decision.”

The moral of the story: Understand contracts and offers before you accept or reject them! And fire your agent if he doesn’t do a better job educating you. . . .

Wait…wait…wait…wait… so you’re telling me that Varitek didn’t know about the issue of draft pick compensation? Varitek is a smart guy, and he’s represented by an even smarter fellow in Scott Boras. However I’m pretty much sure that Boras brought up the issue with Varitek many times. And I’m pretty much sure that Boras told his client that a Jorge Posada-sized contract awaited him this offseason, which was four years in excess of 52MM.

Yeah hindsight is clearly 20/20. The catcher market (thanks to the Texas Rangers) is saturated. And as we’re starting to see, teams would rather sign a backup like Henry Blanco or Brad Ausmus than spend the money (and the first round draft pick) on Varitek. Varitek should have took that one year offer from the Red Sox. But he didn’t… and now we have to watch the PR disaster cover up from the Scott Boras Corporation. Apparently AIG isn’t the only one requesting a bailout here…

A number of small deals were done these past weeks, and obviously I’m not able to comment on them as they each come in. Any ways I’ll address the pros and cons of these moves, and give each signing a grade as well, for kicks.

Mets sign starting pitcher Tim Redding

If there was a pitcher that I wished Baltimore would have signed, I was hoping it was him. Redding is a little better than a fourth starter, and as I brought up a few days ago, there was a great post up on Beyond the Box Score which goes into great detail explaining that. Any ways Redding is now part of the Mets’ property, and if you’re a Mets fan you shouldn’t be any happier about this signing.

Redding should be counted on for 180 innings in 2008, however a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are a likelihood. Any ways this is a one year deal, and at 2.25MM they got a bargain. This move gives the Mets some more leverage against the Philies, and also weakens their divisional opponents the Washington Nationals (if that’s even possible.) Hopefully Redding can be used as the fourth starter, pushing Mike Pelfrey back to the fifth spot to cut down his workload from last season. If the Mets sign Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe, that would also help.

Grade: A-

Red Sox sign pitcher John Smoltz

If you do a search, Theo Epstein also inked outfielders Mark Kotsay and Rocco Badelli to contracts this week (I’ll leave this as homework.) He also signed pitcher Brad Penny to a 5MM contract back in December as well. In either case with all of these deals, Boston got themselves quality outfield and pitching depth, and they didn’t over-pay for any of it. Smoltz and Penny are intriguing options themselves. If they revert back to their 2007 form this season, the Red Sox could be a dangerous team for an already difficult AL East. I know it’s a good problem to have, but Clay Buchholz is currently seventh on the team’s depth chart now. However I don’t see any reason why the team should trade him for catching.

Grade: B+

Brewers sign closer Trevor Hoffman

The Brewers snagged themselves a solid ninth inning option, however they’ll be paying Hoffman 6MM in 2009; they had to give up an extra 2MM to convince him not to sign with the Dodgers.

Even in midst of the Padres’ abysmal season last year, Hoffman still managed to save 30 games, or roughly half of their team’s wins. Keep in mind that he’ll be moving out of the “cavernous” Petco, but that shouldn’t be a problem. 2008 was just a bad year in general for the Padres, Hoffman and everyone else included. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoffman rebound nicely in 2009. There’s clearly some upside here.

Grade: B

Reds resign infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

He’ll get 2MM in 2009. It’s not a bad contract by any means (I expected Hairston to pick up more money), however he’ll be back for the Reds and is a good threat for 30 steals, 80 runs, double digit home runs and a .290 average. Hairston’s versatility is key here, as is can play any of the outfield positions as well (especially given that the team lost Ryan Freel back in December to the Orioles.) Hairston can also serve as a corner infielder if need be.

The irony about this deal is that the Padres signed his brother Scott Hairston to a 1.25 deal yesterday as well. Still, Hariston is a much better option than Willy Tavares.

Grade: B-

I recall a piece from last week on ESPN, essentially complaining about how the Yankees can throw their weight around and sign whomever. Take it if you may, but it did require that they in fact throw another 20MM and a seventh year at C.C. Sabathia, that’s what it required to get it done. A.J. Burnett? Again it took a fifth year and 17MM a year to get him pinstripes. So now there’s one key name left on the market, and there are potentially four teams left bidding for Mark Teixeira. So my question here is, why leave out the Yankees, like everyone is apparently doing?

If it wasn’t for the Yankees, Sabathia would have had to settle on 21MM a year. Burnett would have been lucky to get 14MM per. However unlike last year, they’re here to play, and the MLB Players Union (and Derek Lowe for that matter) can’t be any more grateful.

There was a story today on ESPN today about how the Orioles are suddenly likely to sign Teixeira. There were also rumors a plenty over the weekend about how Tex was in Baltimore over the weekend to watch the Steelers defeat the Ravens. A lot of fans in the area are anxious (me included) as well as excited about the possibility of Teixeira signing with his hometown team, the Orioles. My advice, I expect the Yankees to be late players.

Baltimore has been frugal with its cash since Andy MacPhail took helm, however one expensive investment that I would support would be signing Teixeira. He would bring much more value than just being on the field. His defense is extraordinary, he can hit, and he would be exactly what the Orioles need. Then again the same theory applies to the Nationals, and to the Angels, and as many other people are saying, to the Yankees as well.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is best known for wanting to go year-to-year during his three arbitration years, which start in 2009. He’s also made it known that he wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. If going by today’s numbers, the highest total years for a closer went to B.J. Ryan (five years.) Total compensation? Both Ryan and Joe Nathan received 47MM in their deals. Highest average salary? That’s held by Mariano Rivera, who makes on average of 15MM per year on his contract signed before last season.

Papelbon presumably wants to exceed the numbers given above on all fronts, however the one thing to note: the demand for closers fell from last summer just as sharply as the demand for oil did. Tell this to Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels free agent closer who saved 62 games last year. He wanted 75MM over five years, and he’ll now get 37MM over three from the Mets. That’s less than the 37.5MM that Brad Lidge got from the Phillies earlier this year.

Kerry Wood is also expected to sign a modest deal with the Indians as well, only for two years. So it’s clear that the market is down for closers now, and if you were Jonathan Papelbon, what would you do? If Theo Epstein came to you with a four year deal for 28MM, would you accept? Keep in mind a four year deal would buy out his three arbitration years…

Boston inked AL-MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia to a six year extension today, worth 40.5MM in total (actually it’s 42MM including the signing bonus.) This contract covers his three arbitration years, plus two more years of free agency. I know people in Boston are referring to this as a “bargain", but I wouldn’t go that far. This is the fourth highest contract ever given to a pre-arbitration eligible player, following Hanley Ramirez (6/70MM), David Wright (6/55MM) and Ryan Braun (7/45MM, or 51MM if he’s “super two” next year.) Still, Boston would save 10MM extra now, since they don’t have to go year-to-year during his arbitration years.

Still I know that the economy was clearly a factor here. Pedroia originally expressed his intention to go year-to-year, as did Kevin Youkilis, Jonothan Papelbon, Russell Martin and NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. When this news came out, I expected more of these players to suddenly have a change of heart. Within minutes of this signing, a piece broke on MLBTR about how Lincecum wouldn’t mind an extension (he sees a breakdown in the future apparently.)

Breaking down the Pedroia contract, we see that he only receives 16MM during his three arbitraiton years, including a paltry 3.5MM in his first season. The breakdown is as follows:

• 2009: $3MM (with signing bonus)
• 2010: $3.5MM
• 2011: $5.5MM
• 2012: $8MM
• 2013: $10MM
• 2014: $10MM
• 2015: $11MM (team option)
• Total: $42MM, $53MM with option

So with this all being officially done, I honestly expect Nick Markakis to change his mind as well and get the extension done. This signing only hurt him, especially since many were expecting that he’d grab 5MM alone in 2009, his first season of salary arbitration. My guess to the Markakis contract, 6 years/51.5MM does the trick (three free agency years.) That’s what Daisuke Matsuzaka got when coming over two years ago as well.

In either case, Boston made out well. If MLB player valuation remains constant or increases over the term of Pedroia’s contract, then I would declare this move a “steal” for the Red Sox. Still like everything else, including this offseason, to paraphrase James Carville, it’s clearly the economy, stupid.

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

Over the past few days, I’ve never seen so much sludge against the BWAA on the MVP vote, not because of their first place winners, but because of other players who got votes in the later selections. I’ve seen some great essays, and then I saw this piece from Joe Posnanski this morning. He attempts to solve what goes through the minds of a BWAA writer who unfortunately has to choose (to many single, living-in-parents’-home bloggers’ disgust) which players will receive MVP votes. Here’s the crux of the argument:

…the only logical and common-sense way to measure the 2008 baseball achievements of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, is to look at:

1. The number of RBIs they drove in.
2. The finish of their teams.

Anyone who read this blog last night saw the following from yours truly:

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

When I saw this, my jaw was agape. I couldn’t believe it. I jumped out of my cubicle this morning and screamed! Actually I didn’t do that, however I know at times I think I’m clairvoyant, but I never thought my mind was on the same page as Posnanski’s, especially when it comes to something as *serious* as the MVP voting. Posnanski then addressed the same points I made last night, that is involving VORP into the voting, stating that Pujols’ season was many, many, …, many times better than Howard’s was, mentioning that Howard had many more opportunities with runners on base before him, and essentially how most people who work in the BWAA and were given the chance to vote should be unemployed right now. Actually I don’t think he said the last point, however anyone who cast a first place vote Howard should be working for McDonalds right now, and anyone who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez should be, um, there was only one writer.

It’s not like I call Posnanski each night and talk smack with him, but his essay really inflated my ego this morning. The only thing the two of us disagree on is the ordering of the two ‘li’ children in the above ordered list (it’s HTML talk.) Posnanski weights RBI higher, I weight postseason presence. So let’s look at what happened the first two days this week. The AL? In the end it came down to two players, Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer. Mauer had more RBI (84) last year than Pedroia did (83), however Dustin was playing in the ALCS last October, Joe was not (check point me.) In other words, this allowed Pedroia to get the most first-place votes, and Mauer to get the most second-place votes (though he finished fourth overall.) And anyone who cast the first place vote for Howard (there were twelve of you!, shame shame shame)… Pujols’ statistical season last year was just as monstrous as Alex Rodriguez’s was in 2007, and he overwhelmingly won the MVP that season.

…

Any ways I could use that little Posnanski endorsement (if you want to call it that) to plug a main reason why you should read this blog. Most of the stuff I write turns out true many months later (just search for my “10 hitters to watch")… I also did some improvement on this thing, and paid respect for the great season that Tampa Bay had, by adding Don Zimmer to my montage logo. And I also fought the enormous urge to put ads on this site… so there are your reasons. This is one person writing the content, and unlike Sandra Bernhard’s material, the content is original (and albeit humorous.)

You Won’t Have Joe Morgan To Kick Around

The main reason why I’m keeping this site “ad free” is because one of the most humorous sports blogs FJM did the same thing themselves. And In case anyone noticed, Ken Tremendous and the gang hung up their keyboards at FJM (I think they have lives, wives and girlfriends, something I kinda lack.) Actually I saw this last week, and within 30 minutes, there was a post up on Shyster Ball explaining this. I give Mr. Calcaterra some credit, since he did his best FJM impression the other day. I’m planning on doing the same thing soon as well, I just need an idiotic story to trash. I’ll start scouring philly.com or boston.com more, or if something about David Eckstein comes my way… anyways now onto some baseball related stuff.

The Moose is Loose

Breaking: Mike Mussina officially hung it up, after (finally) notching his first 20 win season last year. My prediction to this, he’ll be like Brett Favre and will want to come back. The team that will take him? Baltimore. I think Peter Angelos is offering 140MM over six years… Any ways the last playoff game Baltimore had recently (ten years ago) was pitched by him, and I was there. There were a lot of people pissed off at Armando Benitez that night (I remember the expletives being shouted walking down from the upper deck.)

Sickels on the East Coast

John Sickels has his Top 20 prospects up now for the Orioles up by the way, and as a fan I couldn’t be any happier. He gave an “A” to Matt Wieters, and “B+"es to their upcoming “big three", that is Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Say hello to your “mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza” (Baltimore Sun Photo by Karl Merton Ferron)

It’s not a bad system, at least in comparison to the thinned-out Diamondbacks system (should be replenished after the compensation comes during next year’s draft) and the Washington Nationals, whom he is currently going over now. It’s not pretty, or as he so eloquently put it:

Yuck!

What’s Going on in Kansas City

There was another big trade that went down today in Kansas City. Even though I’ll wait for Posnanski to write about it this weekend in his Kansas City Star piece, I’ll briefly touch it here. The Royals came into the off-season with a surplus of middle relievers. They dealt Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs a few weeks ago, and now just dealt Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp.

The team isn’t hurting for middle relief, since they still have Ron Mahay, Horacio Ramirez, … and they have some dude named “Joakim.” Still the team now has a glut of outfielders, and I think now’s the time for them to deal Mark Teahen. I like David DeJesus though, but if he can fetch a Felix Pie, you got to pull the trigger. Still, looking at right now, Crisp suddenly gets everyday at bats, 625 plate appearances next year (as Roto Professor put it, Crisp screams “must start".) Last year he was hurt, and he was platooning, however he was still solid. I doubt he’ll slug .460 again like he did in 2006, but he moves fast and plays stellar center field. At 5.5MM he’s a steal, and most importantly, Mr. Crisp gets on base. He, much to Royals’ fans like, clipped at a very solid .340 OBP. Suddenly Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon are smiling…

The Red Sox had to move him, and they got good return in Ramirez. They can do cheaper for a fourth outfielder, whom they’ll need for Jacoby Ellsbury/J.D. Drew injury insurance. Still looking at Crisp, you can’t all but not love this move. And if the Royals give him his 650 plate appearances this year and next (they’ll need to exercise a 8MM option), they’ll (likely) have a Type A free agent in 2010, who could net a pair of draft picks in the 2011 draft. Contrary to what many people are saying, I like what the Royals are doing (wait until Gordon breaks out…) And dare I say this, but I don’t think 85 wins are out of the question. After all the exact same thing worked out well for Tampa Bay last year.

Update: I wasn’t the only one who thought that Mauer should have won the award… ESPN’s Rob Neyer also agrees. Still Pedroia is NOT a bad choice by any means.

As of now, the MVPs were officially determined by the BWAA. Dustin Pedroia took the American League honors, while Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols took home the National League award. Personally, the BWAA got these correct, as they did with the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards. It’s what happened further down the list that makes me scratch my head.

Honestly I’ve been back and forth on the AL choice for some time now. I’ve thought about each of the top four players winning the award, especially Joe Mauer in particular. Pedroia is a fine choice, and had an all-around solid 2008 campaign. Still given the fact that the race was as up-in-the-air as it was, I expected this to be much closer. Mauer got the most second-place votes, but Pedroia won the award handsomely. If anything, the race should’t have been as close in the National League as it was between Pujols and Ryan Howard.

The AL MVP hit .326/17/83 with 20 steals in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

Basing the MVP award on the first choice is entirely unfair, since that immediately disqualifies 73% of players who go back home in October. However these two points were clearly relevant in this year’s voting, and it was more obvious in the National League. Going by pure statistics, Pujols destroyed Howard in 2008 (think “the slashes.") However since Howard was part of a much more potent offense, he had more chances to drive in runs than Pujols. And Howard’s team also made the postseason as well by the way.

The NL MVP hit .357/37/116 with an OPS of 1.114 (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, file)

I know Pujols made comments back in 2006 about how he should have won the award instead of Howard since his team made the playoffs (ironic how we have the exact opposite case here), but Howard was clearly MVP-worthy in 2006. There are a handful of players in the National League who were more valuable than him in 2008 however.

Some of the writers who cast ballots the past few days have had me scratching my head. Some things I don’t get:

• Why did Cliff Lee win the Cy Young yet finish behind Francisco Rodriguez in the MVP voting?
• Which writer actually gave K-Rod a first place vote in the first place? (Seriously???)
• Why did Carlos Delgado finish in the top ten in NL voting, yet a more-valuable Carlos to the Mets (that is Mr. Beltran) only receives ten points?
• How come Hanley Ramirez failed to crack the top ten?
• How come Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia (finishing fourth and sixth respectively) got as much consideration as they did when they were mostly mediocre for their previous clubs before being traded?
• Why was Edison Volquez considered for the Rookie of the Year voting, when he clearly wasn’t a rookie? (Actually BP hit this hard over the weekend.)

I know new age statistics aren’t popular with the classical BWAA voters who casually follow the sport, however one statistic that’s clearly applicable is VORP, or “Value over Replacement Player". In other words, this is the “V part” of MVP.

With that said, my logic for calculating the MVP is relatively simple. Pick a player, then remove him from the team. The player whose team regressed the most after this happened is the MVP. It’s not too hard (though you could accomplish this by using the following algorithm for calculating VORP.) I mean, if you removed Pujols from the middle of the order in St. Louis, would the team have even been in contention in September, especially given their injury-riddled pitching staff? Probably not. What happens if you remove Howard? Dare I say this, but given Howard’s lousy postseason play, the Phillies would have still won the World Series.

Overplaying your Hands

I know I didn’t mention this, however I like the prospect (Jose Ceda) the Marlins received from the Cubs in the Kevin Gregg trade (he was the guy that I wish Baltimore would have got if they had traded Brian Roberts last Spring.) Any ways back off the tangent, the Giants made the first quick strike into the free agent market, grabbing lefty Jeremy Affeldt at two years, 8MM. Like everyone else, I like this move. Affeldt is a good pitcher who will flourish in (pitcher-friendly) San Francisco.

Terms of the contract weren’t anything different than what Ron Mahay got from the Royals last winter (he’s also a good lefty), however the Giants could cash in if Affeldt either gets a chance to start or close for the team. The likelihood of this happening is good too, with Tim Lincecum being a strong canidate for a breakdown in 2009, and their All-Star closer (Brian Wilson) being anything but automatic.

If Affeldt starts for the Giants, the team could be in the same boat as the Cubs are with Ryan Dempster (who apparently is on the verge of signing a four year, 50MM deal. Update, it happened, I’ll discuss late.) As many remember, Affeldt broke into last winter demanding something like 7MM over four years. He didn’t get the deal, and settled on the one-year deal he got from the Reds. It paid out well for both parties, since Affeldt proved that he was a serviceable pitcher, and the Reds get compensation in the 2009 draft since Elias classified him as a Type B free agent.

Usually when a player turns down a lucrative contract, you have to think a little. Josh Fogg turned down a big deal from the Rockies last Winter, only to find himself looking for work in the Spring. Same thing goes with Kyle Lohse, who turned down 21MM from the Phillies and found himself in the same position (he did get paid a year later however.)

Affeldt didn’t officially receive a big offer last Winter, however I wonder why he didn’t test the market a little better this year. Still, I’m sure he thought about Fogg and Lohse when he made his decision yesterday. Now what will the other free agent starters do with the Yankees’ offers, that is Sabathia (140MM) and now A.J. Burnett (80MM?)

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.