Late Innings

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

Do you read FanGraphs?…

The corner-outfielder, DH market finally made another glacial step forward today. Two hitters were signed today. The Cubs inked Milton Bradley (and his .999 OPS from 2008) to a three year deal for 30MM. And the Rays (believe it or not) inked Pat Burrell to a two year contract for 16MM. He’ll be the team’s everyday DH in 2009.

When I saw the Burrell deal, I was shocked. This was once again a genius move made by Andrew Friedman. At 8MM a year for a .870 OPS hitter, Burrell is a bargain. And he might be even more valuable next year since he won’t have to bring a glove out to the field. Any ways many people agree with this statement, and are projecting him to be a .260 hitter with 30 home runs in Tropicana Field. BTBS said it elegantly today about the beauty of the Burrell signing.

It’s difficult to improve a team that made it to the World Series and had a third-order Pythagorean record of 97-65. But by replacing Edwin Jackson with David Price, adding Matt Joyce as a right fielder and inserting Pat Burrell as the DH, the Rays have done just that.

They also added in the fact that Burrell will essentially be paid the same as Mike Cuddyer, the Twins’ right fielder. That is 8MM is buying a 120 OPS+ outfielder for the Rays, and a 95 OPS+ outfielder for the Twins. That is a viable point, however the main point that should be discussed with these two signings is draft pick compensation. Bradley was a Type B free agent, Burrell was Type A, according to Elias. The Rangers offered Bradley (who made 5MM in 2008) arbitration. He rejected it. The Phillies refused to offer Burrell arbitration (who made 14.25MM in 2008.)

Many people questioned whether the Phillies should have offered Burrell arbitration or not. The one caveat is that if Burrell would have accepted, the smallest the Phillies could have paid him (according to labor rules) would be 11MM in 2009. However in reality, he would have most likely commanded 16MM for next season. It made sense for the Rangers to offer Bradley arbitration, given how cheaply he was paid in 2008. The same theory applies to Raul Ibanez, a Type A whom the Mariners offered arbitration to. Ibanez was well-underpaid in Seattle at 5.5MM in 2008, and at least he’ll finally have a solid paycheck in Philly.

Say what you want about the Phillies signing Ibanez (many negatives, some positives), however the issue here lies with arbitration. I still think the Phillies should have made an offer to Burrell. They would have known by the first week of December if he would have accepted it or not. And judging by how the players union generally prefers free agency to arbitration (Jason Varitek is surely wishing he accepted the Red Sox’ offer), Burrell would have most likely rejected it. And the Phillies would then have the Rays’ late first round draft pick in 2009 as a result of this…

As we have learned, the market for bad-fielding corner outfielders (aka DHes) is saturated right now. And Bobby Abreu still expects some team to offer him 18MM a year? The Pat Burrell news couldn’t have been good for him. And with the Rays and Cubs now filling their holes on their roster, I can’t honestly think of a team that could use Abreu. The Mets (and maybe the Braves and Nationals) are the only options that I can think of.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

I wanted to extend my sincere congratulations to the Phillies, MLB World Champions for 2008. Just like Ron Jeremy in a porno, they pulled it out. People who read Late Innings regularly know that I’m from Pennsylvania (actually I just revealed that.) I generally root for the Orioles, however a drive to see the Phillies is just an hour and a half away from here. Still as most people know, my allegiance lies with the American League, particularly the AL East. I root for any AL team outside of Boston or New York, and I really wanted Tampa Bay to win this.

Not to joke, but I’ve said before that the Phillies had a window to win, and they’ve did it tonight. That’s worth my respect, especially to Pat Gillick, the genius who edified this team, the same genius who constructed the winning teams that Baltimore had ten years ago. Now the new Philies GM (Ruben Amaro?) gets the fun of deciding what Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard and Ryan Madison (all arbitration-eligible) get paid in 2009.

Smile big guy, you’re getting another big raise in 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Any ways with the series done, and the Election about to be finished as well, we’re going to kick off the exciting MLB offseason, woohoo! And some stuff in store for Late Innings, keep tuned… Yeah I know I got some increased traffic (big time, people actually think I’ve got good things to say), and tomorrow’s essay is going to shake some people… it’s an essay about sports communism, and how I tie it into the current political landscape. It will piss off some people, and you sure as ever don’t want to miss it.

Keep in mind that I’m totally drunk now, and playing Guitar Hero as well.

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

The Mariners finally made a splash today and named their GM choice, former Brewers executive Jack Zduriencik. This move was supposed to be announced last Friday, and we got news today that they were still searching. In either case Zduriencik is responsible for developing a talented young core of players in Milwaukee, such as Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Ryan Bruan. He now gets the task of essentially undoing the four-plus years of mistake that Bill Bavasi made on the organization.

I was going to cite Prospect Insider on this story, however they’re down now. Hopefully Jason Churchill and Co. can get WordPress back up and running. In either case, most of the reports that I’ve seen on this move have been favorable. He was probably the M’s best choice, mainly since the best executives weren’t allowed by their teams (e.g. Tigers, Padres) to even interview.

There have been some humorous posts about this signing, my personal favorite:

At the very least I don’t think the Mariners will be selecting another closer in the first round anytime soon

Personally I feel that the Mariners are developing talent as good as any team. They’ve been drafting very well, and as I’ve said before here, I’m a big fan of their recent first rounders, that is Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow and Phillipe Aumont. What doomed them last season was Bavasi. He over-dealt the good youth (e.g. Rafeal Soriano, Chris Tillman, Adam Jones) and over-paid for aging players (e.g. Richie Sexon, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, etc.) At the time when he signed Adrian Beltre to his four year deal (coming off that 48 HR season), Beltre was maligned, however in retrospect this appears to be a good move.

Regardless what the M’s need to do is do what the Rays, Pirates, Orioles, Indians, Royals and such are doing, which is build the young talent up, and avoid caustic contracts. They can’t expect some team to just hand over Kevin Slowley for Beltre (like they tried back in July), just out of pity for what Bavasi did on the team. It took them four years to get into the mess, it’s going to take them four years to get out. Bavasi was bad (here’s a good post on Forbes last year ranking the GMs with three years of experience, Bavasi is in the bottom 10%.) Zduriencik is a move in the right direction.

Ranking the Youth

Bill James has his rankings out for the best young teams, which will be part of his 2009 Almanac (available next month.) Here’s his listing of the teams:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

I can’t agree any further with this list. The Twins have the best 1-5 starters right now, and they were all homegrown. They also have great outfielders in the wings as well. Sickels doesn’t regard them too highly however, though he says glowing things about Ben Revere. Still what the Twins have now is a testament to what the Mariners need to do to right their ship. To further add to this, James has his top 25 under-25 list out as well. It’s tough to disagree with any of these choices, though some of the players might deserve a “bump":

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

An Unlikely Fall Classic

For the record about the series, I predicted the Dodgers to win the whole thing. I was wrong admittedly (though they did make it deep into the NLCS.) Any ways with that said, just like everyone else I like the Rays. The main reason why is Scott Kazmir. The Philies will face him twice in the series, including this evening. Kazmir missed the first month of the year, then broke out in May, going 5-1, 1.22. He made the All Star team and got the win in the extra-innings game, then started to stumble in the second half, finishing with a 3.49 ERA for the season.

His first two postseason starts were tough, but the six shutout innings he threw in Game 5 in the ALCS were brilliant (with seven Ks to go as well.) David Price and Andy Sonnanstine are the X-factors here. The Phillies might win it, however they need to move up Joe Blanton to be the third starter. The Rays are a smart offense, and they hit soft tossers hard (e.g. Tim Wakefield last series.) They’ll face Jamie “Grandpa” Moyer twice. In either case, it’ll be a good series, and since I root for the AL East, I’m rooting for the Rays. Their starting pitching should get the job done.

I watched the game last night (and had to listen to Buck Martinez, ugh), and in the end smiled. I’m proud of the Rays, proud of the fact that the American League team came from my favorite division, the AL East. I know that by not having the Nation and the Dodgers in the series, it’ll be a “ratings disaster” (to quote ESPN.) But I could care less, this will be a great series.

I wanted to comment on David Price. I think the sky’s the limit for him, and he’ll be to the American League next year what Tim Lincecum was to the National League this year. For a player who was drafted #1 overall last year to not be given an MLB contract, he progressed fairly quickly through the Rays’ system. Watching him save out the Rays’ ALCS made me think back to the 2006 series, when Adam Wainright was thrust into closing duties for the Cardinals against the Tigers. I also heard comparisons to how Francisco Rodriguez took the bull by the horns as well the last time the Angels were in the World Series.

Nonetheless, some fun facts about Price, there was a “what if” post on BP this weekend, asking what would have happened between one game in 2006 between the Tigers and the Royals, who essentially helped guarantee that Tampa Bay would get the #1 overall pick in 2007 (and choose Price.) Had the Royals gotten this pick, they would have presumably picked Price as well; pitchers like him are rare. Nothing against Mike Moustakas, whom I think will be fine (Sickels only gave him a A-), the Rays got the upper hand here. And to pour more salt in the wound between these two teams, Evan Longoria is looking like a better pick from the 2006 draft (drafted #3) than Luke Hovechar (overall #1, not that he won’t be a useful starter.) Now if only Tampa would have drafted better from the talented crop of players available in the 2005 draft (Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury were all drafted after Wade Townsend in the first round, a pitcher who probably won’t ever see the light of day. Then again, Chuck LaMar was running the franchise in 2005, and we all know what happened then.)

The Hendry Contract

The Cubs finally got things done today, even with sale of the organization looming, by giving Jim Hendry a four year extension today. Great move at it couldn’t have come any sooner. Now he can focus on resigning Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, which hopefully he can do soon.

Hendry assembled the best team in the National League last year (winning percentage-wise, sorry Phillies fans.) The team’s three-and-out postseason wasn’t his fault, though he should have gave in a little to Andy MacPhail’s demands for Brian Roberts. He would have gotten two years from Roberts (who doesn’t hit free agency until ‘09), and would have got a hitter who could have brought life into the lineup in October, something Alfonso Soriano fails to do each and every time out.

The Late Innings Mail Bag Segment

I’m not sure what was said on MASN this past week, but I got three seperate emails asking me about the Orioles and their chances for signing free agent Oliver Perez. I honestly haven’t heard any rumors about this, and wouldn’t be too mum about the O’s signing this pitcher. Granted he’s a Scott Boras client, but he’s coming off a down year. Could he get 16MM a year like many were speculating this past Spring? I doubt it.

Perez rebounded from a poor start to finish 10-7, 4.22 in 2008. (AP)

Back in August, I speculated that Perez would get 11MM-12MM this winter from the clubs. Of course now that Jake Peavy is available on the market, this changes everything (look what Erik Bedard, Johan Santana and Dan Haren did to the free agent starters, notably Kyle Lohse.) I could see Perez getting something more than the 41MM that Lohse got last month, but Boras would probably consider that selling low on his client. He might opt Perez to take a low term deal (two years or so) at 10MM a year to reestablish his value.

Personally I wouldn’t mind having a short-term deal on Perez, mainly since Baltimore has so much pitching coming up in the minors. Four years is too much, especially since Perez’s ERA would go up by a half run moving to the AL East. Four years of Jon Garland would be worse, much worse. And I think four years at 15MM per season for A.J. Burnett would be foolish. I know that Baltimore needs to bring in an arm to back Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, but an innings-eater like Braden Looper would be more ideal. According to Buster Olney, the O’s are prepared to go on a spending binge this Winter, and Burnett and Mark Teixeira (MD natives) are in their crosshairs. I would love to have Teixeira, and given his track record and health he would make sense. However at 20MM a year, that’s too large of a percentage of the budget to allocate to one player, even if he would place fans in the seats at Camden Yards.

More on the Mets and Royals

To close, there was a rumor which came up about a possible swap between these two clubs for Luis Castillo and Jose Guillen. Actually these two teams have been talking. Guillen has 24MM owed over the next two, Castillo 18MM over the next three. Both would address holes on each team as well, with the Mets needing outfield help, and the Royals looking to sign a middle infielder (they’re interested in Rafeal Furcal.)

If that trade occurred, I would like it on both sides. I know that everyone is considering each signing a “bad contract” (you might want to lump Juan Pierre into this discussion), but it’s not the player’s fault that they received the money they did (point the fingers at the clubs here), especially given the fact that their 2008 numbers were indicative of their career norms.

I love writing about the Red Sox, especially in the disappointing tone. I can understand the problems that they’re having now, especially since I’ve had to follow the Orioles for the past ten abysmal years. I know that ESPN is disappointed right now…

Any ways what’s exactly wrong with this team? They looked dead last night against the Rays. Tampa Bay finally solved Jon Lester, who threw fourteen innings without allowing an earned run against the Angels in the ALDS. The series hinges tonight on the performances of both Andy Sonnanstine and Tim Wakefield. Both pitchers are soft-tossers, however Sonnanstine’s velocity is much better than Wakefield’s on the whole. If Wakefield is off his game tonight, that could be one more coffin nail in the Red Sox’s season. Terry Francona probably has him on the shortest of leashes tonight.

In regards to the problems, the Red Sox have many more than what appears on the surface. Josh Beckett probably won’t be effective next time out, especially given his arm issues that’ll have to be addressed this off season. Lester will need to get back on track, and they’ll need another miracle from Diasuke Matsuzaka to keep their postseason hopes alive. They’re facing a hot and healthy Rays team now, and desperately need the starters to pitch well if they want to advance.

The reason why they need to pitch well is simple: the offense has been disappointing. Any hitter outside of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia (both of whom should be given heavy AL MVP consideration) needs to step up his game. Even though the team scored eight runs on Saturday in their extra-inning loss, they’ve only mustered three in their other two games. As to why they’ve played this poorly… they have three rally-killing sink-holes in their lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz and Jason Varitek have yet to find their first hit in the ALCS. If Boston wants to advance, these three need to hit. Period.

Big Papi needs to look here to rediscover his swing. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Given the state of economic mess that we’re with in this country, I often wonder about how that will affect free agent paydays this Winter? Will A.J. Burnett hit his 15MM a year demand? Who will overpay and purchase this year’s Carlos Silva? Honestly I expect the purse strings to be tightened somewhat. C.C. Sabathia will still get his money, but in regards to everyone else it’s hard to tell.

In regards to what’s going on in Baltimore, a four-day organizational meeting is currently under way with all of the front office brass. Throw out the abysmal final forty games of the season, and Andy MacPhail and his staff could consider the 2008 season a success. The front office saw great strides this season, especially from young players like Adam Jones, Matt Weiters and Jeremy Guthrie. Right now the Orioles could use starting pitching, as well as some middle infield help, however they could once again have a bullpen surplus in 2009, especially with the return of 2007 closer Chris Ray.

There have been a few rumors that the Orioles would be pursing both big name free agents Mark Teixeira and Burnett. Granted the team has some cash right now, and will have some more off the books after 2009, and bringing in these two players will cost some cash. Scott Boras already has stated that Teixeria will cost 200MM over ten years, and Burnett himself will cost 15MM a year (or so he demands.) Will both of these two players address the problems that the team had in 2008, which primarily includes stopping the perenial end of year collapses?

In my opinion I’d take both. Burnett would add much needed depth to the rotation, giving some support to their ace Jeremy Guthrie. And Teixeria would fill a void at first, something that’s been missing for about ten years since Rafeal Palmerio left as a free agent years back. Playing devil’s advocate, say that both players sign onto MacPhail’s plan, Teixeria comes aboard for seven years, Burnett for five. Even though both players are from the Baltimore area, they most likely won’t take “hometown discounts” to play for the Orioles. Still even with both of them on board, how would they react if MacPhail suddenly traded Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora?

The Orioles are clearly in a rebuilding phase right now. They have a talented all-world catcher coming up however with Weiters. They are set with Nick Markakis and Jones in the outfield. And they have a tremendous amount of starting pitching in the minors that rivals very few teams. However these arms are a few years away, and that includes Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and David Hernandez. If both Burnett and Teixeria are on board, they would have to understand that this isn’t a one year plan. I’d love to have both of these guys on board, and I could see them leading the next winning Orioles club, however it’s unlikely that either of these two players would want to be part of a rebuilding project.

In other random news from the weekend:

• Speaking of Matusz, he made his professional debut for the Orioles in the fall league, and threw three hitless innings. Matusz was the #4 overall pick in this year’s draft, and should advance swiftly through the minors, especially given the major league contract he received in August.
• In regards to other top draft picks, the #1 pick from last year’s draft David Price got his first career win during last Saturday’s postseason win against the Red Sox. He’s still looking for his first career win in the regular season, however given his talent, that shouldn’t be a problem.
• Jonothan Papelbon is the record holder for the longest streak of postseason scoreless innings, in case anyone is interested.

Any ways as usual I’ve been drinking tonight (note to casual L.I. readers, this tends to happen often here.) I made predictions last week as to who would win each Division Series. I got the Rays and Dodgers right, I got the Angels and Cubs wrong. In regards to the Phillies, the pitching is key. Brett Myers stepped up, as did Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton was huge. That’s why they won. Of course the Brewers’ mistakes helped. The Angels I thought were going to pull it out as well, however they made base-running mistakes all series. Still, as we’ve learned now facing Jon Lester in a short series is deadly. And we also saw the importance of jumping out to a 2-0 lead in a short series, since all four of the teams that did this either swept their series or won it in four.

Any ways with that stated, we have our Championship series. I still think the Dodgers are going to win the whole thing (as I’ve been saying since March.) It’ll be great to see Manny Ramirez go back and face his (supposedly maligned) teammates in Boston. I love the story that the Rays are writing now, and I’d love to see them win, however the Red Sox have too deep of a team. I’m rooting for the Dodgers to knock the Red Sox, just so I won’t have to hear the words “Nation!” and “dynasty” uttered all throughout ESPN all Winter.

Any ways back to the hot stove discussion, and in regards to the Rays, think back to the Chad Bradford trade. The Rays get him for this year and the next for 3MM. The Orioles? They get a PTBNL. As to who they would get for this, I’m not sure. Reid Brignac, I doubt it. Same goes with Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis. As Peter Schmuck said, they most likely won’t get their blue chip prospects here. One reader posted a comment saying how Baltimore will most likely receive Evan Longoria, since they’ll want to unload all that money he was inked to back in April. As to what the comment said:

I still think that the Rays regret giving so much money so soon to Longoria and they are trying to offload him to the Orioles as the PTBNL, but of course he didn’t clear waivers. The O’s have two major concerns with accepting him though: 1) all that guaranteed money he’s getting; and 2) they are already set at 3B with Mora. So I heard that Angelos is trying to get TB to pick up some of the guaranteed money in Longoria’s contract to take him off their hands.

Schmuck’s rebuttal was classic:

I think you’re right. The guy is totally overrated.

Hopefully Baltimore will make the same proposition to the Brewers for Ryan Braun. He also was given a good chunk of money so early into his career. Yeah I’d love to see Longoria in Baltimore, but then again pigs must fly. Maybe that’ll start happening after a few more drinks tonight…

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

With one week left in the season, I wanted to extend my congratulations to Tampa Bay. If they sweep the four game set against Baltimore, and Boston gets swept by Cleveland in their three game series, the Rays will win the AL East. Granted I know that this could be done in Baltimore, and even though it’s unlikely, if it happens I’ll applaud the Rays. If there’s anyone here that should be commended, it’s their fans. They had to suffer through ten years of .400 baseball, being the laughing stock of the AL East. I remember once when some reporter from USA Today referred to the team as the F-Rays (instead of the D-Rays), giving them a failing grade. As a fan, watching this kind of performance is tough to endure (hence me and the Orioles.)

If there’s any other winners with this feel-good story, it’s Baseball Prospectus. This past Winter, they wrote a piece projecting the Rays as an 87 win team for 2008. They were right about the decline of the White Sox in 2007, and they used the same PECOTA mesaures (the algorithm) to project the team’s win totals. I wrote a piece to counter this, saying that Tampa is only a 75 win team. In either case that’s a twenty percent improvement on their 2007 win total. Any ways in either case, the Rays are currently a 92 win team. If they sweep their four-game series in Baltimore, they’re at 96 wins. Being generous, let’s say that Tampa finishes with 95 wins. That’s a 35 win improvement from the year before.

My reasoning with why I thought Tampa would be a 15 win improvement: I expected a ten-win improvement from solid seasons from Matt Garza and James Shields, as well as Scott Kazmir. I expected Evan Longoria’s bat and defensive help (with the addition of Jason Bartlett) to add the additional five wins. Where I was wrong and BP was right:

• The Rays’ defensive is one of the best in the majors. They have the best defensive infield in baseball.
• The team’s relief corps, led by Grant Balfour, Jason Hammel, Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler have been outstanding.
• Longoria has clearly brought the team more than three wins all by himself.
• The backend of the rotation (Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson) have been surprisingly servicable.

And of course to make matters better, the David Price era has arrived. He makes his first career start this evening against Baltimore, and currently spots a solid 3.00 ERA in six relief innings.

A Run of Excellence

So now that we know how good the Rays are, the next question must be asked, that is how long can their magical run go. Unlike their division rivals Boston and New York, the Rays don’t have an open-ended payroll. Stuart Sternberg and Co. might open the purse strings a little more for Andrew Friedman (who has done a spectacular job with operations), but we can’t expect the team’s payroll to climb past 60MM in the future (given the market that the team plays in.) They’ll need that extra flexibility to sign their other starts not locked up, such as Garza and Price, both of whom could be seeing solid paydays once they hit arbitration.

The Rays can’t be dependent on receiving high draft picks anymore as well. Granted they nabbed Tim Beckham with the first pick this year, however they can’t be relying on that anytime in the future. One option is to select first-round talent that slips down to the later round, like the Yankees, Red Sox and Royals did this year (the Royals took Tim Melville, who fell down to the fourth round this year.) The other option is to increase international scouting, especially overseas in Japan. Personally they’re doing a solid job with their talent scouting.

Am I suggesting that the Rays are due for a falloff in four years? Not exactly. However Friedman will have to operate this team like Billy Beane does in Oakland, or how Bill Smith does with the Twins. The Rays will need to stay young and competitive, and make the key trade whenever they see fit to do so. And if a full-blown rebuilding is needed, so be it (ask Oakland.) The AL East is the toughest of divisions to play in, especially when the other four teams are being run by excellent general managers. Still, I’m impressed with Friedman and I don’t have any doubt in his confidence and leadership. There’s no sense in looking into the future this early. The Rays are going to the playoffs. They should pop that cap and enjoy every minute of that champagne, they deserve it.

There have been some interesting waiver trades of late, and it has been even more active than usual. We’ve seen Felipe Lopez go to the Cardinals, Livan Hernandez to the Rockies, and even Brian Giles to the Red Sox. In another move today, Baltimore was able to pass their right-handed reliever Chad Bradford to the Tampa Bay Rays for a player to be named later. If the Rockies were asking the Rays for David Price or Wade Davis for Brian Fuentes, then I’m curious to see what the O’s will acquire. Tampa Bay is pitching rich, and I’d be happy receiving someone like J.P. Howell.

One thing that few people cite is that unlike last year, Baltimore has a deep bullpen this year. Even though the team went out last year and doled out 10.5MM guaranteed to free agents Bradford, 12MM to Jamie Walker and 18MM to Danys Baez, on the whole the corps was overworked. This year with the emergence of other arms such as (Rule V pick) Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate (who’s going back into the bullpen), Alberto Castillo, Jim Johnson, and closer George Sherrill, any of the acquisitions are expendable, especially with (last year’s closer) Chris Ray coming back from the disabled list sometime in September, and last year’s solid middleman Rocky Cherry fully recovered from injury and pitching very well at Triple-A Norfolk. I’m curious to see who else Baltimore would move. Walker is back off the disabled list and has been effective, and he could be the next to go.

All in all, this is a much better move for the Rays than Fuentes would be. Their bullpen is deep, especially if they call up (last summer’s #1 Amateur Draft pick) Price. And Bradford’s salary (4.5MM remaining until the end of ‘09) isn’t that much of a hindrance. And in all fairness, I’m not sure why more teams put in claims for Bradford, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. The Angels made a bid for Bradford, but he’s still going to the Rays nonetheless.

Bradford is a solid 3-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 2008. (Getty Images)

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

According to mlb.com, we’re a good 25 days away from the July 31st trading deadline. It wasn’t as exciting as it was in years past, when the deadline was at midnight instead of at 4pm in the afternoon, however prominent players have been traded in recent years. It’s not that players can’t be traded after the deadline, however if a player is traded in July, he won’t have to pass through waivers.

There are a good number of teams in the playoff hunt, and I’m curious to see what they’ll acquire. Will the A’s acquire another Kevin Appier for their playoff push? What will the Red Sox and Yankees do this month? I’m not sure, but I wanted to chime in on a series of topics.

The Sabathia Sweepstakes

A few months ago, I expected the Indians and Tigers to rebound and push for the AL Central title. The Tigers are doing so, however the Indians are last in their division. The main reason why is because of their lack of offense. Grady Siezmore is “en fuego", however Victor Martinez (albeit injured) is homer-less. Travis Haffner has been a disappointment.

Since the Twins and White Sox have been in command of recent, Mark Shapiro should probably do the best thing and raise the white flag on the season, and trade away the team’s staff ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia, 6-8 3.38 ERA with a MLB-leading 123 strikeouts, has been on a tear of late. Many teams are coveting the potential free agent, who should command a contract in excess of 100MM come this winter. The Rays, Phillies and Dodgers could all use him, however the Brewers have apparently made the best offer for the ace. Granted if the Brewers were to acquire Sabathia, they’ll most likely be coughing up Matt LaPorta, their 2007 first round draft pick.

I was watching the Red Sox/Yankees game on FOX yesterday (it was all that was on), and they went to a cut to Ken Rosenthal, who expects this deal to go down sometime before the All Star break (this week.) I see the Brewers winning the sweepstakes, and the deal would definitely benefit both parties. The Indians need hitting and LaPorta would be ideal. The Brewers who are hot now, would definitely use Sabathia. This is the deal that I would make. The Brewers haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and their window of winning is closing very quickly (Prince Fielder could be traded in the winter?) The two teams have a history of making successful trades (e.g. Richie Sexon in his “good” years), and this one would be a deal that I would approve. Besides, the Brewers could then get the two compensatory picks after Sabathia leaves in the winter (he’ll all-but-sure be a Type A free agent.)

A C.C. trade would make sense for both teams (AP photo c/o CNN.)

Spelling Relief

I was watching the Mets/Phillies game last night, and watched the Phillies’ MLB-best bullpen implode and let the Mets come back (Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez were the culprits.) Was that the reason why they then gave Brad Lidge a three year/37.5MM extension this morning? (Great move for both parties by the way, especially on the club for only getting him to sign for three years.)

The main arm that’s been rumored is the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes. The Rockies have depth with Manny Corpas pitching well, and Taylor Buchholz being un-hittable, so Fuentes is expendable. He’s got closer experience, and is a free agent come fall. In other words he’ll command a deal around 5MM per season. Still a number of teams are coveting him, and they’re all the AL East contenders; the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays are the interesting choice, and would obviously make a move to prevent either of the two teams from acquiring the top setup man.

The two arms that I saw the Rays ready to give up for Fuentes are either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. Personally that’s too much for Fuentes, Davis in particular. A comparable trade is what the Red Sox gave up last July for Eric Gagne. The Rays should give up a starter with some MLB experience, someone much like the Kason Gabbard, who went to Texas in the Gagne trade. Gabbard is fighting injuries, and at times has been effective, however Theo Epstein was able to persuade Jon Daniels to take Gabbard instead of someone like Jon Lester or even Clay Buchholz. The Rays should be showcasing Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell, or even Edwin Jackson. Jackson would make the most sense, since David Price is all but ready to step in and contribute for the Rays. Yes the team is winning now, but trading raw talent like Davis or Hellickson is foolish. It’s something that Bill Bavasi would do.

Mahay, Mahay!

Back in December, I listed my five personal free agent signings of the offseason. Two of them were Royals’ signings. Jose Guillen, at times maligned by the press, is now one of the final write-in choices for the AL All Star team. He was brought in to revitalize their offense, which he is doing. When Guillen hits, the Royals mash. When Guillen doesn’t hit, then the Royals get, um, no-hit. The other player I liked was their signing of Ron Mahay, 2 years for 8MM, whom I speculated that the Royals could spin off for someone else this year. The Yankess wanted him last winter, and could easily want him again come the trading deadline. Mahay is clearly doing his job by the way (4-0, 2.03 ERA.)

Closing Rumors

Some final food for thought:

• The Orioles are a .500 team, and have plenty of chips to trade. Granted there’s their All Star George Sherill, who essentially has pitched the same number of innings now as he did last year, when he was a left-handed specialist. Baltimore also has Brian Roberts (like Guillen a write-in choice) available. Aubrey Huff is also having a fine year and could go for a good price. There are other names as well that could move.
• The A’s are easily buyers now instead of sellers, and will most likely be holding onto Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. I could see Chad Gaudin (relegated to the pen) being moved for a good bat.
• The Dodgers and Orioles need shortstops. Outside of Felipe Lopez, Jack Wilson and David Eckstein, there isn’t much available.
• Matt Holliday, an NL All Star, may or may not be available. If he is moved expect the bounty to be high. The same goes with the Braves and Mark Teixeira. The Braves are still in contention however.
• If the Yankees trade for help, expect Ian Kennedy to go. If the Red Sox make a trade, they’ll have to cough up Justin Masterson. Any team will ask for these two players, since both Joba Chamberlain and Buchholz have been deemed untouchable by their respective teams (and rightfully so.)