Late Innings

Due to a few trades (e.g. Matt Holiday) and injuries, Hamilton is suddenly a first round fantasy draft choice. He went twelfth in my one league (auto-picker took him for me the day I was hungover.) Yeah the Rangers have a beast of a lineup, and it’ll look even better for them in 2009 than it did last year. Hamilton is just coming into his game, and I expect his speed to raise his status even further.

2009 Projection: .299 AVG, 41 HR, 135 RBI, 110 R, .395 OBP, .555 SLG, 17 SB

You heard it here first, Hamilton will be a top five fantasy pick come the start of the 2010 season.

I’m surprised this isn’t getting as much coverage as it should be. Everyone knows by now that the Rangers lost pitching prospect (first round 2004 draft pick) Eric Hurley for 2009. He was penciled in to be the team’s #3 starter, however due to his shoulder problems this won’t be happening. Baseball America wrote up an analysis of the injury, and John Sickels commented about it today as well. Sickels, being the master of prognostication and such, wrote this a month ago:

Worried about health here. I held onto him too long as a higher-ranked prospect, but could do better with a change of scenery.

Checkmate, he called it here. Granted Jon Daniels did a wonderful job building up the team’s talent pool of late (they’re ESPN’s #1 orginization according to Keith Law), and there’s plenty of arms ready to step in as well to mitigate the blow. I’m excited to see Neftali Feliz pitch, and Derek Holland is his southpaw equivalent. Matt Harrison is already part of the rotation.

Now as an Orioles fan, I’m seeing the same similarities here. The Orioles have a plethora of young arms ready to make an impact (e.g Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, et al.), much like how Texas did a year ago. Building a team around young pitching is crucial and key today, and if news of a pitcher being out for a season arises (e.g. Hurley or Troy Patton or whomever), there needs to be someone ready to step in. Just ask Tampa Bay… a Jake McGee injury hurt them last year, but thankfully there are plenty of other arms for the organization to fall back on.

***

Some “closing humor", CNN’s Jon Heyman ironically quipped this bit of information today:

Oddly, starting pitchers still aren’t as well-rewarded as relievers as first-year arbitration-eligible players. This is the only time where relievers have the edge, and there’s no rhyme or reason to it. While star closer Jonathan Papelbon got $6.25 million and fellow closer Bobby Jenks $5.6 million, the ceiling for starters in their first year of arbitration still seems to be the $4.35 million that Dontrelle Willis got three years back (and that deal included some deferred monies). Hamels’ contract calls for $4 million in 2009, his first year of arbitration eligibility, a major bargain by any accounting.

For someone who once suggested that Francisco Rodriguez be given the MVP award for the AL, this was very odd to read this afternoon…

I wanted to comment on the news coming out of Texas, in regards to Rangers’ shortstop Michael Young. Young demanded a trade last month, mainly out of irritation that he’s being asked to move to third base. The position is currently being manned by Hank Blalock, whose 6.2MM option was picked up by the club after the season ended. As to whether the presence of young (and defensively-talented) Elvis Andrus played a role or not, it’s yet to be seen. Still Young regressed with his bat in 2008, hitting .284/.346/.442. He however won the Gold Glove at his position last season.

I recall his name being mentioned at the Winter Meetings last month, and there were little takers. I’m not sure if Jon Daniels was asking too much for him or not, however if there’s one thing that would steer any interested team away, it would be Young’s albatross of a contract, which kicks in this upcoming season. Young made roughly 6MM last season (counting All Star bonuses and such), however his salary will jump up to 16MM for the 2009 season. He’ll be paid that figure throughout the duration of his contract, which runs through 2013. In either case, that’s a hefty pill for any team to swallow, even if 15MM of his contract is being deferred by the Rangers. Texas will have to eat some money to make a deal happen.

Texas could also keep Young, however with his disgruntlement and salary, I’m sure that he’ll be moved at some point in the next few years or so. Then again, Young will have to wait for the economy to improve, since very few teams (outside of the Yankees) are going to take on that payroll commitment in the current state. Besides, the Rangers’ system is incredibly deep at the moment. We all know that Andrus is on his way, however I’m very curious to see the impact that Netfali Feliz will bring to their (currently abysmal) pitching staff.

“Day One” of the Winter Meetings is here, and part of me wishes that I was in the Bellagio with the rest of the reporters and front office personnel. As to what goes on at the meetings, I’m not sure. Still I’m sure that GMs try to slip Scott Boras a roofie or two. The last thing he would want is to wake up and realize that one of his players was signed below market-value. Maybe this could be a ploy that Andy MacPhail could use… I would love to see Mark Teixeira in Baltimore in 2009; 15MM a year would be even better.

The Trade That Did Happen Yesterday

Everyone expected Jermaine Dye to be a Red last night, however team officials on both clubs quickly dismissed that rumor. One trade that did happen last night was with the Tigers, who got an above-average backstop in Gerald Laird. His defense is solid, and he also has a solid bat too, though without solid power. He’s under team control for two more years, and being a Boras client, he should cost around 4MM a year during this span.

I like this move on the Tigers’ behalf, and I also like it on the Rangers’ as well (Baseball America discusses the two arms dealt.) Jon Daniels is presumably under orders to cut salary, and Laird is a logical fit to go, given the team’s current catching logjam. It’s not a bad return by any means, and many are speculating that Moscoso could be the next Jair Jurjens, which going by last season’s results isn’t a bad thing.

Daniels still has too many corner-outfield, 1B, DH types remaining now as well, given David Murphy, Chris Davis, and even Max Ramirez could all offer the same flexibility. Milton Bradley’s departure opens up a slot for one of them, and I could still see Daniels dealing Hank Blalock to someone. Again, at 6.2MM he’s likely to move, and the Giants have been rumored to be interested. He’d be a great pickup if they grabbed him, and he shouldn’t cost them a Jonathan Sanchez (as many Rangers fans are hoping.)

On an aside, I wonder where Brandon Inge sits in the team’s 2009 plans…

Shortstop Plethora

The other piece of the Giants’ left-side of the infield features newly-signed Edgar Renteria, inked to a 18.5MM deal over two years. The dollar amount surprises me, but I don’t think it’s a bad move that’ll hurt them for years to come (think Barry Zito.) And I think he’ll revert back to his NL-friendly numbers. Still with that all said, there are way too many shortstops on the market today. The other name that’s been rumored to be traded is Jack Wilson, and the asking price that’s on him from the Pirates is high.

I’m not sure why any team would cough up two plus prospects for (potentially) two years of expensive baseball of Wilson. Grated his glove is good, but then again there are other options who deliver the same defensive talents that he does, notably Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Cesar Izturis.

Update: Everett signed with the Tigers today for 1MM.

…

Rafeal Furcal turned down a four year/36MM offer from the A’s, and many are expecting him to now resign with the Dodgers. His agent Paul Kinzer is seeking 52MM over the same term, and the injury he had last year prevented him from receiving any classification from Elias (the Dodgers won’t receive any compensation if he leaves.) Personally I’d rather see Baltimore sign him for 10MM a year than spend 20MM a year on Tex. His four years in Los Angeles were very good. He was the front-runner for the MVP last season, before the back injury came into play. He’s not as fragile as many writers make it seem… Still ESPN and Jayson Stark believe that he’ll sign his contract this week.

Some other random notes from today:

• The Phillies and Jamie Moyer are still hung up in dollar discussions. He was very solid in 2008, and I see no reason why he should receive a pay cut from his 8.5MM he clearly earned last year (in comparison, consider what Carlos Silva did last year.) The team might regret not offering the Type A free agent arbitration.
• The Mariners obtained another 1B/OF/DH in Chris Shelton, Jack Zduriencik’s second move.

• MASN’s Roch Kubatko is under the impression that Ramon Hernandez is to be moved this week, as part of a salary swap. Apparently a framework for a deal is already in place, as he writes:

  In return, the Orioles would get a utility-type player who could move from the infield to the outfield.

  He mentions the Reds as being the suitor here, and Tim Dierkes of MLBTR speculates that Ryan Freel is the most-likely candidate (that was my guess too.) I wouldn’t mind Freel personally. Tossing out the two DUIs, he at least gets on base often and plays plus defense. That alone probably caught MacPhail’s eye. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun also chimes in here on this rumor.

• More on Roch, teams are apparently asking about Daniel Cabrera. He also speculates that the O’s could non-tender Cabrera… speaking of non-tenders there has been a rumor out about the Mariners non-tendering Erik Bedard, but Roch is getting the impression that they’ll offer him a contract for 2009. People were speculating a possible return of him to Baltimore, with news of Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie hanging out in Las Vegas this week (the Adam Jones trade would only look more lopsided if this happened.)

Baseball America has its Top 10 prospects up for the Orioles up now. I know it’s a subscriber-only link (for now, until it gets formally published next year), however they project the team’s rotation for 2012:

1. Chris Tillman
2. Brian Matusz
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Jeremy Guthrie
5. Radhames Liz

That’s an intriguing top three (especially how highly they regard Tillman, though he’ll be further along by 2012 than Matusz or Arrieta will.) One name left off the list however is Danys Baez. He signed that repulsive three year, 19MM deal back in 2006, and will make 5.5MM in 2009 in his walk year. He got the money he got simply because of the fact that he padded his resume with some “closer experience.”

A couple of days ago, Baez informed team officials that he would like to start again. Since we’re not in 2012 yet, and the team’s rotation is currently a mess, it never hurts to listen to this from an open ear. The last time he started was in 2002, when he made all 26 of his career starts. The results that season weren’t anything spectacular, he was essentially an “innings eater", and Baltimore needs two or three of these now.

My opinion: give him a chance to start, I’m not opposed to it. He’ll eat innings, and could preserve a potentially solid bullpen. Besides, 5.5MM would be better spent on a mid-tier starter than it would be on a middle reliever.

Baez was 10-11, 4.41 in that 2002 season (mlb.com.)

More “no-brainer” option decisions

I’ll summarize these up rather quickly.

• The Rangers picked up the 6.2MM 2009 option on Hank Blalock. His second half was strong and he might make a good trade chip come next July. This decision was easy.
• The Yankees declined Damaso Marte’s 2009 6MM option. Too much money for a middle reliever, however he’s in high demand this winter.
• Brian Giles (finally) had his 9MM 2009 option picked up by the Padres. Again, the front office shouldn’t have even had to think about this choice, he was easily one of the best corner outfielders last season.

One free agent signing occurred yesterday, with the Astros agreeing to a 3.5MM contract with reliever LaTroy Hawkins. He was lights-out for the team after coming over from the Yankees mid-season last year (2-0 with an 0.43 ERA in 24 appearances), and this isn’t that bad of a contract.

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

I’ve gotten a few emails recently about this question, and I wanted to address it for everyone to know. Edison Volquez is not a rookie. To clarify the rules:

• 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues
• 45 days on the active roster of a major league club (excluding time on the disabled list or any time after rosters are expanded on September 1)

He pitched about 70 innings in parts of three seasons for the Rangers before this, so he was clearly disqualified. If Volquez was a rookie, his name would be mentioned alongside Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, both players who are strong candidates for Rookie of the Year. He was traded for Josh Hamilton, both players made the All-Star team in 2007, and the rest everyone knows. Many people thought this trade was pointless last year, however I loved it. I even wrote the following back in December last year:

Hamilton came at a price, since Volquez was easily one of their best pitchers to make his way up through Texas’ system recently. Still the move benefits both clubs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton hits 25HR in a strong Rangers lineup.

Hot dog, boy was I right with this guess. Now everyone agrees that this trade was huge last season. Any ways that should settle this debate. Any more emails about this will be directed to this post. Now to get shitfaced…

Volquez went 17-6, 3.21 for the Reds in 2008 in 196.0 innings. He struck out 206 hitters. (mlb.com)

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

In regards to the Rays and their success, a good portion of it has to be attributed to their young GM Andrew Friedman. However one of the senior advisers to Friedman is Gerry Hunsicker, the former Astros GM. Given the success that the team has now, Hunsicker will be a hot commodity this winter with teams searching for new GMs. One possibility that was brought up was having Hunsicker head back to Texas and serve as an assistant to the young Jon Daniels of the Rangers. As John Sickels pointed out, the team did win 79 games this year, however they have a few areas that need addressed.

At the end of April, the Rangers were 10-18 and looked lost. Everyone was expecting that their manager Ron Washington would be fired at that point. He could still be, especially knowing that Nolan Ryan wants to change this team, however the team did play much better after April, getting back to .500 and flirting with it the rest of the way. Had the team played better in April, they could have been a .500 team in 2008.

In either case, as Sickels pointed out the Rangers have some areas to address. These include:

• Addressing holes at third base
• Addressing weaknesses in their pitching
• Solving the catching/first base “log jam”

Hank Blalock was hot in September and his 6.2MM option for 2009 should be picked up. However as to being a long term option, it’s yet to be known. They have great depth around with David Murphy, Chris Davis, and an excellent farm system. The team however needs starting pitching. Scott Feldman came on at the end of the season, but Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood aren’t optimal long-term answers. And we can’t forget that the team will be doling out 80MM over the next six years to Michael Young, a move which will definitely put a damper on the team’s finances (thankfully they were able to lock up Ian Kinsler cheaply last year for 22MM.)

In either case, getting to the point of this post, the Rangers have a surplus at catching right now. They have four catchers who could be regular starters on any major league team: Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. Since the team is in a rebuilding phase still, they should be starting a platoon of Teagarden and Ramirez (who doesn’t need to be traded anymore by the way.) Both players have the power potential, and Teagarden hit very well at the end of the season to earn a starting role (Ramirez still has to do this.) These two also have the least amount of service time amongst their peers, so it’s wise to hold onto each. In regards to the other two, the following trades would be wise from both sides:

• Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. As I wrote earlier today, Jason Varitek isn’t hitting this postseason and I think his days of starting are now outnumbered, though I once expected that he’d resign with the club this winter for 10MM. Saltalamacchia is a player that Theo Epstein likes, and he’s cheap, under team-control and is talented. He was the crown jewel of the Mark Teixeira trade back in the Summer of 2007. The Red Sox have the young pitching and infield prospects needed to pry him from Daniels and the Rangers.
• Laird to the Marlins. There was a post up on MLB.com this weekend about how the Rockies were looking to trade Dan Uggla and Scott Olsen for Yorvit Torrealba and a prospect. Yikes. I know that both players are arbitration eligible, but Torrealba is a free agent next winter, and wouldn’t be much cheaper than not paying Uggla and Olsen. Laird makes more sense. He’s a plus hitter and a plus defender, and is the most experienced catcher on the Rangers. The Marlins, like the Red Sox, have the young talent that Daniels craves. I don’t see them coughing up Chris Volstad, however the arbitration-eligible Jorge Cantu would make sense at third, given the fact that Dallas MacPherson (and his 40 home runs from last season) reside in Triple-A.

As the waiver-trading deadline approaches (August 31st), the Minnesota Twins made a move to solidify a weak bullpen by acquiring Eddie Guardado from the Rangers for another minor league closer, Mark Hamburger. Guardado has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, however he’s been hit hard in his last five outings. Then again the Twins’ bullpen has equally been ineffective, especially after yesterday’s meltdown loss where Nick Blackburn couldn’t make it past the fifth inning. For a team that doesn’t put up too many runs, a strong bullpen is vital to their playoff run. Outside of Joe Nathan, their pen has been a mess, mainly since they’re without veterans Juan Rincon (let go at start of season) and Pat Neshek (injured.)

Any ways Guardado will help shore up a rough bullpen, and will definitely help them in their playoff push. On an aside, Bill Smith could have had Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson this Spring for Johan Santana. I’m wondering if he’s regretting this decision…

Guardado spent a good portion of his career with the Twins. (Chris Carlson/AP)

Frank Thomas has landed a gig as an Oakland Athletic, another young starter made his Major League Debut, and Bill Bavasi made a move that put the Mariners back another ten years. Granted I went into a deep discussion over the Krivsky firing, however there were plenty of interesting stories that occurred throughout the week. Time to recap this odd week in baseball:

Frank the Tank Time in Oakland

Late this week, Billy Beane did the inevitable, which is reacquire Frank Thomas for the A’s’ playoff push. The team is playing great baseball (I’ll touch on this later), however the offense is going through a power outage right now. At the time of the signing, the team only hit ten homers (that was one more than Chase Utley has all by himself at the time.) Thomas will help. And at a prorated portion portion of the league minimum salary (400K), this signing is a steal. It’s no wonder why the move only took a couple of days to do.

In regards to which DH will better suit the A’s, it’s tough to question between Thomas and the All Time Home Run King (that is Barry Bonds.) Bonds is decorated and has the numbers, however so does Thomas. Plus he doesn’t carry the baggage that Bonds has. Thomas can still hit; he’s a career .300 hitter in the 500 home run club. Some of the other hitters on the Oakland staff don’t have as nice of a resume as Thomas has. The team dumped Dan Johnson, has to tolerate the monster strikeout totals from Jack Cust and Travis Buck, and currently has Mike Sweeney handling the DH duties. This move is exactly what Oakland needed. For fans keeping score at home, put a star by Beane’s name.

Young Starters Have Their Day

I usually highlight when a young pitcher makes his debut here, and there are two young arms worth talking about currently. Oakland has Greg Smith, whose currently on a roll right now. During Spring Training, he was matching fellow pitching sensation Gio Gonzalez pitch per pitch. In four starts so far, he’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He’ll most likely be the victim to be sent back to Triple-A once Rich Harden returns.

Justin Masterson was dominating Double-A for Boston, pitching to a tune of a 0.94 ERA. He was sent back to Portland yesterday, however he made a stunning debut in place of Josh Beckett:

Unheralded Aces

There have been a series of pitchers who have been delivering quality starts all season long for their teams, but have had little run support to show for their efforts. Felix Hernandez should be 5-0, however he only has two wins due to bullpen implosions and poor support. He has a stellar 1.67 ERA. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was matched up against King Felix twice, and both games were pitching duels between the two starters. He’s currently winless, though has also been pitching well all season (he went into the eighth in his last start.)

One last starter who seems to be on the short end is Matt Cain of the Giants. He’s also winless on the season, though was unfortunate to be involved in a traditional 1-0 game with the Giants in his last start out. Whatever run support that the Giants muster tends to usually go to Barry Zito, and that isn’t working too well.

Zannen Desu Ne

The Mariners could be in an interesting situation now. They are sitting on a heap of young talent, which they don’t exactly want any part of with the team’s current makeup. A good reason behind this is the team’s General Manager Bill Bavasi, who in recent years dealt talent like Rafeal Soriano and Adam Jones. He also signed his share of bad free agents. Granted I am eating a healthy plate of crow now since Carlos Silva is pitching well, however there have been many bad contracts that have damaged the team and have left fans scratching their heads.

You can add this latest one to the contract heap. Yesterday afternoon, the team extended catcher Kenji Johjima by another three years. Granted Johjima isn’t hitting now, but he does have some power. Then again so does Jeff Clement (the team’s #1 prospect according to Baseball America.) If the deal was worth the total value of his first contract (15MM), it still would have been a bad move. However with this new deal, Johjima is getting 24MM over the timespan. Ouch (on an aside, the headline translates to how unfortunate.)

The Boys of Summer Are Back

Last night was the opening night in the Atlantic League, if anyone is interested. Some of the best non-affiliated professional baseball can be seen in these games.

Hot and Cold Starts

We’re one month into the season, and there have been some teams that have surprised and got off to good starts. There have also been some disappointments. Baltimore, Oakland and Florida are all playing well and are high in their divisional standings. Baltimore has got its share of timely hitting, Oakland has received sensational pitching, and the Marlins hitters know how to mash. Will these three teams be as good as they are come May, it’s hard to tell.

It’s hard to call the Texas Rangers a disappointment, however at 8-16, they’re not doing anything right. Granted they have a deep farm system (fourth best in baseball), but they have no pitching. It’s a shame that Ron Washington will most likely take the blame for this disaster, he’s one of the nicest managers in all of baseball.

I’m not sure what the moves made yesterday in Minnesota signalled. The big story from yesterday was that the Minnesota Twins gave contract extensions to first baseman Justin Morneau and right-fielder Michael Cuddyer. Morneau’s contract will pay him 80MM over six years, including his (recent) signing of 7.5MM for 2008. Cuddyer will be paid 24MM over the next three years.

From what I read on a few sports blogs about these moves, most people were against the signings. In looking at the 2007 seasons by both players, each of them had down years, at least from the season before. Morneau’s average dropped 50 points from the year before, and Cuddyer’s OPS was under .800. The one thing that Minnesota should have done was taken advantage of each player’s down years and used that to lower the value of the contracts (sort of like Detorit did with the Dontrelle Willis extension.) Nonetheless the two deals are done. Morneau’s contract should be used a benchmark for a Ryan Howard deal.

The one thing that these two players (Morneau, Cuddyer) have in common is that their 2007 nummbers were for the most part average with the rest of the league’s position players. The main reason behind that problem was the lack of productivity from Morneau. I know that his 2007 numbers were NOT bad (31 homers, 111 RBI), but the other numbers are down for him (average in particular.) Morneau was fighting a minor injury all season, and did miss some time. His nice power numbers definitely disguised this (most of his home runs came in “bunches” last year.) As a result, the rest of the lineup’s production curtailed.

A healthy Morneau can be counted on to hit .300 with a .900 OBS and 35-40 homers. Those are fine numbers numbers all around in my book (the best from a Twins’ first baseman since Kent Hrbek 20 years ago), and would make him worthy of his contract. Morneau should rebound, and the rest of the lineup will be thankful that he did. Now that these two signings are done and out of the way, we should move along to one more Twin in particular:

It’s time for the Twins to man-up and pay the best pitcher in baseball.

I can’t recall an offseason where one player’s name was mentioned as much as Santana’s was. There have been stories that his velocity has dropped, or that every team on the East Coast is in the driver’s seat for the trade. Regardless of all of this bad press, Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Period. The interesting thing about Minnesota is that if they want to keep their players long term, they’ll pay them the market salary, however they rarely will go beyond four years (Morneau’s case is unique.) The 4yr/80MM deal they made to Santana was very fair; at 20MM per year he’ll be the highest-paid pitcher (and this is a small market team.)

Given the poor trade offers that GM Bill Smith is seeing for Santana, I highly expect huge news next week of him signing an extension with the Twins (great news to keynote their annual TwinsFest.) Contrary to reports of them being unable to do this, they DO have the cash to make this deal happen (replacing Torii Hunter with Delmon Young will essentially save them 10MM on average for the next two or three years.) Minnestota needs to “man-up” and extend their ace. If they don’t do this, their young pitching staff will struggle heavilly without him, and they could kiss their dreams of a .500 season away.

In other MLB news, a couple things that I might be right on…

• Livan Hernandez is close to signing with the Mets. I’m not sure about the details of the contract, but for some reason I just saw the two parties being a perfect match.
• The Rangers assigned Chris Shelton to AAA, something I expected. His .800 OBS will be back on the team soon though. There’s something in the water in Texas in regards to hitters and success, and I’d love to see the numbers from Shelton after a full-season with the Rangers.

I should have saved the Jeremy Guthrie signing for this post, but finally some moves are being made in the hot stove with the player movements. I’ll keep these brief and witty.

• Juan Cruz inked a 1.95MM deal with the Diamondbacks in 2008. He’s a middle reliever who appears in sixty games a year (the Cubs didn’t forsee this when he came up.) Could he be the next 5MM middle reliever?… (Dannys Baez doesn’t count, since Baltimore gave him the ridiculous money with hopes of him closing.)
• Marlon Byrd also inked a 1.8MM deal today, to be the Rangers’ fourth outfielder. Way too much money for someone I don’t project to hit about .260 with little power.
• Claudio Vargas avoids arbitration and inks a 3.6MM deal with the Brewers. Way too much money again, and I don’t see him ever receiving that amount in an arbitration hearing. I don’t see any trade value for him either.
• Jason Jennings is about to ink a 4MM deal with the Rangers. I like this deal, that is any sensible deal for young starting pitching is good with me, even if they don’t pan out.

The moves that the Rangers’ front office has made in the past few weeks is making my head spin. To surmise the interesting ones in particular:

• Rangers acquire Chris Shelton from Detroit
• Rangers acquire Ben Broussard from Seattle
• Texas non-tenders Broussard
• Texas signs Broussard for roughly 4MM
• Texas cuts Shelton

I could make a joke now about them about to cut Josh Hamilton, but I’ll let this one pass. I know that the Texas 40 Man Roster was bolstered by a series of odd recent major league deals, however some team is surely going to pick him up Shelton if they wait on him for ten more days. Because of this, I see Texas sending Shelton down to AAA very quickly (unless another roster spot opens.)

Shelton definitely has a great bat, and I’ve love to see him hold a starting job, but I’ve always ben a Broussard fan since he came up in Cleveland. It’s Ben’s job in 2008, and I’m throwing up a .260/16/60/5 line for him for kicks.

There were a series of moves done the past few days in regards to relief pitching, and I wanted to touch on each of those (as well as discuss the potential fantasy impact.)

• Brian Shouse gets 1yr/2MM from the Brewers: His numbers were very good in 2007: 1-1/3.02 in 73 games. Milwaukee has a very strong bullpen as it is, and Shouse is a good bridge between the starters and closer Eric Gagne. Another season like this and he’ll have a 4MM contract in 2009, like the rest of the high-tier middle relievers.
• Chad Cordero and 1yr/6.2MM from the Nationals: Cordero’s young (25) and figures to be traded soon, with the team still having him under control for another year. Even though he wore down in September in 2007, I expect Cordero to save 40 again this year with a stronger Nationals team. With his consistency, he should easily receive a contract if not better than Francisco Cordero’s 4yr/44MM deal with the Reds.
• Eddie Guardardo gets 1 yr/2MM from the Rangers: I love this deal for many reasons. One the contract is incentive-laden, so if Guardardo wants the money he’ll need to perform (there’s another 4MM on the line here.) I expect him to do this as well, considering the fact that he pitched very well last season down the stretch, fully recovering from injury. He’s the favorite to get the closer job in Texas, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saves 35 (remember the team doesn’t have to necessarily be a winner for the closer to rack up saves.)
• The Brandon Lyon Situation: Lyon finally made his niche in middle relief for the Diamondbacks. The team wants to give him an extension, however his agent is waiting for the 2008 season to conclude, for when he’s a free agent. The reason behind this is he could potentially end up closing games for the team in 2008, and hence receive closer money thereafter. Something reasonable like a 2yr/8MM extension (Ron Mahay money) should be accepted by Lyon, especially since he’s taking a big gamble that he’ll stay healthy and fend off pressure from Tony Pena.