Late Innings

So much news over the past few days about (Pirates’ prospect) Jose Tabata. Actually most of it revolves around his wife. To get everyone up to speed on the story:

Under his own insistence, Pirates prospect Jose Tabata wrote and delivered a statement on Friday concerning the kidnapping charges his wife, Amalia Tabata Pereira, faces and the recent revelations that much of Tabata’s relationship with her is now known to have been built on her calculated fabrications.

Pereira is accused of kidnapping a 2-month-old girl in Plant City, Fla., on Monday after posing as an immigration officer. An Amber Alert was issued for the missing infant, Sandra-Cruz Francisco, later that evening. An anonymous call to the Manatee County Sherriff’s Office on Tuesday led police to a strip mall in Bradenton, Fla., the city where the Pirates hold Spring Training, where the baby was found and handed over to law enforcement unharmed.

Tabata is a 20 year old outfield prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates. His wife (at the time of the arrest) is 43. The two met over two years ago, and just recently married back in January of 2008. The article elaborates on that fact as follows:

Tabata fell into a situation where he was taken advantage of by Pereira while a teenager adapting to life in a foreign country. Tabata was 18 when he met his then-41-year-old wife in Tampa, Fla., as a Yankees Minor Leaguer. The two married in January 2008.

In other words, we have a classic case of a cougar attempting to catch herself some prey. I’m 27, would I have done the same thing if pressed into that situation? Well lets lay down the facts about Tabata’s wife. When she started the hunt, she was 41 years old. For XKCD readers, we can use the following formula to calculate the minimum age guy she can date:

( Math.Floor($age/2) ) + 7

I added the floor function to decrease the age even further. Any ways plugging in the variables (or variable as I should say), Tabata can’t go younger than 27. She bagged herself a 18 year old high-ceiling prospect. She’s clearly violating the rules of nature here. On the other side of things, the youngest girl I can date is a 20 year old. That’s good to know. Still, not to sound immature and such, what was Jose thinking? Seriously.

TBO.com, Tribune photo by JASON BEHNKEN.

The Pirates and All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth agreed on a contract today:

Outfielder Nate McLouth reached agreement Tuesday with the Pittsburgh Pirates on a $15.75 million, three-year contract that includes a team option for 2012.

The agreement was struck hours before the scheduled start of a salary arbitration hearing in Phoenix.

I’m not sure how much his first year of free agency will be (the “team option"), however in either case this looks like a good deal on behalf of the Pirates. Once again, Neil Huntington quietly is making moves that will make this team respectable in the semi-near future, very similar to how Mark Shapiro is handling his team’s contention status in Cleveland.

In either case, using the wonderful data that’s available at FanGraphs:

Granted McLouth’s defense might be overrated (especially with last season’s Gold Glove in his pocket), he’s still a valuable player by far. Even with that dragging defense, he’s still worth 3.6 wins above replacement, or worth about 16MM last year. He’s getting 15.75MM over the next three years. Good deal indeed.

Pirates’ fans don’t have much to look forward too, however they should be pleased of the direction that Huntington is leading the team. Over the past two years, we’ve seen affordable extensions given to Ian Snell, Matt Capps, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit and now McLouth. The Pirate ship is clearly steered in the right direction. Now the fun part will be seeing this team in three years, when McLouth, Jose Tabata and (another talented McOutfielder) Andrew McCutchen are patrolling the team’s outfield.

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

I wanted to offer my (call it expert if you’d like) analysis on the two trades from yesterday. I would have commented on this yesterday, but I was down in Baltimore to watch another Orioles’ loss. Any ways I’ve heard numerous analysis points on each of the trades today. The one that I want to discuss is the deal that the Yankees and Pirates made last night, acquiring outfielder Xavier Nady and ace-reliever Damasco Marte. Nady will definitely help the outfield injuries, and Marte will be a strong eighth-inning guy which Joe Girardi will use before Mariano Rivera.

The deal has been revised, however the final list of prospects going to the Pirates include outfielder Jose Tabata, RHP Dan McCutchen, RHP Ross Ohlendorf and RHP Jeff Karstens. All in all, this is a solid haul. Karstens can start, and Ohlendorf can fill both roles. While both were seen as throw-ins in the deal, Tabata and McCutchen are the true centerpieces. Neither of the two aren’t top-flight prospects, however the Pirates have incredible outfield depth, even with the deal. Tabata and McCutchen aren’t bad (I think Sickels gave these two prospects B-ratings over the winter), however they still have some upside. Granted they didn’t acquire Ian Kennedy, but the Pirates were able to dump salary here (Nady and Marte will make around 15MM in ‘09, with Marte’s ‘06 option and Nady’s projected arbitration winnings, being a Boras client.) They can also now give an extended look to outfielders Steven Pearce and Andrew McCutchen (presumably no relation to the pitcher in the haul.)

In regards to the work done by Brian Cashman, he gets “thumbs up” here with this move. Nady fills an immediate void (with Damon and Matsui out, he could hit 10 HR between now and the postseason, currently he’s at .330 with 13 HR.) LaTroy Hawkins has struggled late, and with Joba Chamberlain now in the rotation, Marte can fill that role that Joba handled so well. In regards to what else the Yankees need to do before Thursday next week (the trading deadline), first and foremost they need more offense. As shown last night in their 1-0 win in Fenway over the Red Sox, they need more hitting (albeit Josh Beckett was pitching last night.) One area they need to look at is catching. With Jorge Posada out for the season, acquiring someone like Ramon Hernandez (.245, 11HR) from Baltimore would make sense. The Yankees are playing well, and Hernandez has been hot of late. The only downside of this move is that the Yankees would have over 20MM on the books for two catchers in ‘09, however with over 80MM coming off the books after this season, a Hernandez trade wouldn’t hurt them too much.

In regards to what the Yankees do in the offseason, the most important part is retaining their top-flight GM Cashman.

Nady’s name has been perpetually mentioned in MLB trade rumors. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A series of long term deals were signed today. Two of the main ones came from Toronto, in Alex Rios (6/65MM) and second baseman Aaron Hill (4/12MM.) In later news, Pittsburgh inked their closer Matt Capps to an extension through 2009. All of these deals contain valuable team-friendly options that can be exercised by the club, in some cases taking out years of free agency.

Everyone says that the Rios signing is a bargain in regards to other outfielder signings like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukodome. The main difference between Rios’ contract and the other players’ contracts is that the years covered in the other players’ deals are free agency years. A good chunk of the years in the Rios, Hill and Capps contracts are arbitration years.

When a young player signs a long term contract early on while he’s under control with the team (until he’s a free agent), this can clearly cut down on his earning potential. Players who go year to year often make out better in the end. However the one benefit that players get who sign early on is the security. If they get hurt, they’re still guaranteed the money. This was probably motivation for other team-friendly extensions for players like Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitzki, and James Shields. Granted all three of those players have expressed interest in remaining with their current employers, which always helps.

Milwaukee took the same approach with two of their young stars, that is Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Long-term contracts were offered by the clubs. As to whether the players accept, that’s another story. Fielder and Braun both shown that they can produce above-average at the Major League Level, and coupled with the fact that they’re not as often to get injured as other players (e.g. pitchers), they would probably be best going year-to-year with their clubs. In the end however, I still see them signing the deals (worth substantially more), since they’re most likely pleased with the direction that Milwaukee is heading.

Still in the end it all boils down to security. Rios finally broke out last year with 24 homers (he only hit 27 in his career before last season.) Hill had only nine career homers before hitting 17 last year. Capps got most of his saves last year in the second half. Teams are taking definitely chances with these signings, but in the end most of them work out. Still with this news out of the way, it’s good knowing that Tim Lincecum won’t be a Blue Jay anytime soon…

Face it, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a bad team. If I had to pick one of the MLB franchises that have been the worst over the past fifteen years, the Pirates would top my list. It doesn’t appear like they’re getting any better. They haven’t signed any key free agents outside of Chris Gomez, and have done little to address the areas of their problems. Some of their players are finally starting to address this as well (see Jason Bay.)

If there’s anything that new GM Neal Huntington is doing correct, it’s that he’s now starting to avoid wasting money on aging, useless free agents, a problem that’s been plaguing the franchise for some time now. They have some talented arms, as well as some talented bats, and they’re doing the right thing by keeping them under control for as long as they can with prudent contracts. Today was just more news of them moving in the right direction, with the team announcing that they gave second baseman Freddy Sanchez a 3 year/19MM deal. Technically it’s only two years, but the club has an 8MM option on his first year of free agency after 2009.

With all the news today about prospects and trades, I only thought it would be interesting to use this signing to discuss one of the worst trades that happened ten years ago between the Pirates and the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez is a fine second baseman for the Bucs, a perennial .300 hitter with a batting title already under his belt. He’s going to put up great numbers for some time now as well. All in all, he’s probably the best middle infielder to come up from their system since the team brought up Carlos Garcia.

I’d be surprised if anyone has this card.

Outside of a few Pirates fans, I’m not sure if many people even remember Garcia. Garcia came up with the Pirates in 1992, and stuck with the team since then. He had some great years for the team, until 1996 happened, when he was involved in one of the biggest blockbusters I can remember. The Pirates traded him, Orlando Merced and reliever Dan Plesac to the Blue Jays for three prospects now, and four to be named later.

When this trade happened, I expected the Blue Jays to benefit heavily from it. I thought Garcia would be the move that put them over the top. Wow, like many I was wrong. Garcia flopped, and was later gone by mid-season. The other two players had slightly longer careers, but didn’t make that much of an impact with the Jays. On the Pirates’ side, out of all seven players they got in the trade, none of them really made an impact as well. The key piece to the deal was a pitcher by the name of Jose Silva.

Silva was one of the crown jewels to come up in the Blue Jays system at the time. He was part of their fabled “big three", that is Silva and two other pitchers Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. The later two of the big three succeeded, big time. Halladay won the AL Cy Young award in 2003, Carpenter won it with the Cardinals in 2005. Could Silva have won the same award if he wasn’t rushed into the rotation, as the Pirates clearly did with him? It’s hard to tell.

If there’s anything about these blockbuster trades that are going on today, they’re involving prospects. Prospects may or may not pan out. The A’s got a handful of top prospects when they traded Nick Swisher and Dan Haren, Baltimore got a group when moving Miguel Tejada, Florida got the same after trading Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and of course Minnesota restocked the farm by moving ace lefty Johan Santana (or the best pitcher in the “universe” as Peter Gammons calls him.) Granted there were some players that were received as “MLB Ready” from the deals (e.g. Adam Jones, George Sherill and Luke Scott), but when a team receives a package of prospects, they’re essentially rolling the dice.

The success of a prospect solely depends on the team that’s controlling them. Some teams have better track records. Now would Hanley Ramirez be a super-star if he started out as a rookie with the Pirates instead of the Marlins, I still think he’d be the same. However some players won’t necessarily pan out if on a worse team, especially the younger pitchers.

In looking at the two teams who recently got a stash of prospects, that is Minnesota and Baltimore, it’s only recently that they’ve had luck with player development. When Tom Kelly was managing the Twins, young players struggled once they reached the majors. It seemed that after he left, player development took off, that is Johan Santana, Joe Nathan and even Francisco Liriano started to realize their talent. Baltimore’s case is different. Since their last winning season in 1997, Baltimore has struggled developing players from within their system. Still, it was something they never had to worry about, since most of their roster was acquired via checkbook. It was only recently that the team started putting an emphasis on player development, keynoted by the rise of Nick Markakis and Erik bedard.

In analyzing the two big trades, I’m looking at the prospects and where they’re going. If Adam Jones had went to the O’s back in 2000, I’d question if he’d even succeed. This Orioles team, though they haven’t won much recently, has improved their development. Jones should have a “coming out party” (to paraphrase PI) this year for the team. The same thing goes with Carlos Gomez, who probably had the best thing happen to his career by being traded to the Twins. In either case, I’m dying to see the analysis from the big Bedard trade, and how well people break it down. Tomorrow should be a fun day nonetheless.

Everyone by now should know how super-agent Scott Boras coaches his players in regards to salary negotiations: go year to year through the arbitration process, earn a big pay day as a free agent. It’s a great approach, at least from Boras’ case, and I wanted to dig into a few players (or their teams) who are expected to be seeking long-term deals.

• Matt Holliday: Holliday, the runner up in the 2008 NL MVP voting, is in fact a Boras client. The Rockies have been rumored to be ready to prepare him a 4yr/60MM contract. For someone who will be consistently putting up 1.000 OBPS for the next few years, it makes sense for the team to offer him a big money deal. They did that with Todd Helton, and his power dipped thereafter. Knowing Boras, I wouldn’t be surprised if I see Holliday wait until after 2009 to become a free agent, and then leech on with a 100MM deal with some team thereafter. I’d give Holliday 5yr/80MM deal, but I wouldn’t go beyond five years.
• Carlos Pena: Like Holliday and Colorado, Tampa Bay is also trying to extend their first baseman for three more years in the 36MM ballpark. Personally I don’t see that as enough money. Boras (surprise, his agent) isn’t too happy about the team paying him a base salary of 800K for his 46HR season last year. He should be out seeking a Albert Pujols deal for his client, somewhere for 100MM or so. Pena’s numbers in 2007 were a bit of a surprise. Granted the power was there, he clubbed 27 as of only two years ago with the Tigers. Therefore in looking at his numbers, the power (46HR) isn’t exactly a fluke. His OBP (.411) and BA (.282), maybe. The proposed extension would be a good gamble by the Rays, but it’s going to take much more than that to keep him past the next two years.
• Adam LaRoche: The team recently signed him at 5MM for 2008, and is pursuing an extension to keep him in uniform for the years beyond 2009. LaRoche got off to a very slow start, however was white-hot in the second half, hitting over .320 with great power. Pittsburgh should take advantage of the slow start to extend him to something in the 5yr/45MM ballpark, something I could see happening.
• Ian Snell: The fellow Pirate approached his front office about an extension. The team scoffed his request, especially since he’s under control of the team for sometime now. His numbers are solid, especially his high strikeout rate. Pittsburgh should try to extend him like Matt Cain and Chris Young did with their teams, signing reasonable four year deals. Given the price of starting pitching, if Snell stays as consistent as he’s been, his salary could escalate very quickly.

CBS Sports last year ran a very interesting series called Save This Franchise!™ They pick a team, and then tear apart whatever has been ailing them for a few seasons up to this point. This year the first team they tore into was the Pittsburgh Pirates. Going forward, I’ll attempt to give my expert analysis in regards to what I think needs to be done to save this team.

Sinking Ship: Simply put, this team hasn’t had a winning team in a while. They’ve been competitive though sometimes, a few years back they were a surprise .500 team at the All Star Break. However, the last time this team had a playoff appearance, Andy Van Slyke was patrolling their outfield. Ouch.

Granted there are teams that are worse off than them in that regard, well there were. Milwaukee hasn’t been to the playoffs since ‘92 (I believe), however last year their young talent blossomed and they’ve become a competitive team. Still Pittsburgh hasn’t had a playoff appearance recently, and that’s not going to change anytime soon.

The Player Development Issue: In a nutshell that’s the main problem with this team. It’s a very generic problem, and there’s not really one area where to place direct blame. Simply put, their young talent (and there is plenty of young talent) gets rushed to the majors. Granted Jason Bay and Brian Giles are recent exceptions, however for the most part the Pirates have problems coaching young talent. I’ve seen this so many times with their players, struggling with their organization and then succeeding elsewhere.

This list could go on, but having this problem leads me to believe that there are problems afloat with their coaching staff. The team gave up prematurely on Jose Guillen, and he’s now a steady run-producer. The same thing goes with Aramis Ramirez. The same thing goes with Adam LaRoche, who struggled in this first year with the Pirates. Granted for them to only trade away Mike Gonzalez for him, he definitely took a step back last season.

The move that might come back to bite them is them getting rid of Jose Castillo. Like many, I feel that his path to the Majors was rushed. He has the power that is needed for a corner infield spot, however he didn’t quite put up the consistency. Florida has him now, and given their strong coaching staff and their ability to handle young players, I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if he hits .250 with 25HR (a good replacement for the Miguel Cabrera power at least.)

Two other players (in this case pitchers) who though did play well but took off strong elsewhere are Jason Schmidt and Jon Leiber.

Protect the Talent: Andrew McCutchen is their center fielder of the future, and he’ll be rushed in to their lineup tomorrow. Granted he doesn’t have the upside that someone like Jay Bruce has, but he’ll be a solid player. Still for him to fully-develop into a star, the team should bring in an older player to provide insurance for him. That’s what Boston did with Jacoby Elisbury, and what LA is doing with Matt Kamp and Andre Either. Granted after the stars blossom, they’ll be forced to trade the old veterans (in this case Coco Crisp and Juan Pierre), but that’s a good problem to have.

The one good upside about this team is the young pitching. Tom Gorzelanny is to the Pirates as to what Erik Bedard is to the Orioles: a very good pitcher on a very bad team. Gorzelanny is their ace, Ian Snell is a fine #2. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are solid round-outs for their rotation. However the one thing I don’t understand about this team is their inability to acquire parts that will help their team. I’m obviously confused as to why they acquired Matt Morris (and his 9MM in salary) from the Giants last year, since they had no chance of making any playoff run.

In a nutshell that’s what’s wrong with this team: poor player development and poor player acquisitions. They have the young talent come up in their system, but have trouble making them produce. And they always seem to make moves that end up hurting their team. I know that this is part of the problem with the team, however feedback on this post is definitely welcome.