Late Innings

So the Padres extended David Eckstein’s contract through 2010:

The Padres took another step toward the future yesterday by extending the contract of the second-oldest player on their active roster.

David Eckstein will return as the Padres’ second baseman in 2010.

The decision to extend Eckstein, who would have been a free agent at the end of the season, was announced before the Padres lost 7-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals before 38,156 at Petco Park.

He’ll make 1MM in 2010. I’ve made jokes about this before ad nauseum, especially in regards to the mainstream media’s infatuation towards him, but whomever covered the Saturday night shift at Rotoworld summed it up pretty nicely about baseball’s scrapiest player:

Eckstein somehow convinced Padres management that he deserved a raise, despite a lowly .255/.317/.325 batting line, one home run and only 38 RBI in 416 plate appearances. The little man earned just $850,000 in ‘09, but it appears grit and hustle still carry some value in the major leagues.

It’s a shame that we’re going to have to keep talking about Eck for another year, ugh…

CNN’s Jon Heyman is at it again:

11. David Eckstein, Padres infielder: A bargain for 850 grand. Worth it for attitude alone.

Pull up the brakes. The great Heyman lists Eckstein as a great bargain who probably wouldn’t slip through waivers. To paraphrase Seth and Amy, really?!?

Using some nifty data from FanGraphs, we can produce the following chart:

WAR data provided by FanGraphs.com.

Going from the above graph, Eck will hurt you with his glove and with his bat (as evidenced by his .269/.327/.344 line.) However given the fact that he plays shortstop, that keeps his value above water. Eckstein is currently a 1/2 win player, or is worth roughly 2MM this year. If he gets shifted to another position (outside of catcher), his value is shot.

Eckstein is currently making 800K, so as of right now, the Padres have a 1.5MM surplus value in their “scrappy” infielder. Is this solid, maybe? I can think of better bargains out there. How about the recently-traded Cliff Lee? How about Longoria, Lincecum, etc.? I can think of many. They’d sure as hell slip through waivers…

Heyman also speculates in the hit-and-run piece that Alex Rios is over-valued, and as Dave Cameron proves, our fun-loving author is full of shit. Man, what I would give to have Heyman’s job…

The Blue Jays and Padres made an interesting trade today:

The career of Matt Bush did not end with the Padres designating the righthander for assignment last week. Instead, the Blue Jays decided to give Bush a change of scenery Tuesday, acquiring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft for a player to be named.

The Blue Jays, coupled with payroll constraints and injuries, are hurt for pitching. Bush is an interesting flyer himself. The Padres back in 2004 signed Bush instead of players such as Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew, figuring that their signing bonuses would have gotten out of hand. Bush was drafted as a shortstop, however off the field issues got in the way. He was ultimately converted to a pitcher (since that was his natural position in high school) and then sat out all of 2008 recovering from surgery.

The Blue Jays need pitching, and I’m not sure where Bush will fit in. He’s years behind other top amateur starters (e.g. Brian Matusz, et al.), however the Jays grabbed him since he is a good talent. He could advance quickly, I’m not sure. Still, going by my count, this is the second top draft pick that they acquired. A few months back, they grabbed Bryan Bullington, the #1 overall pick in the 2002 draft. And if you consider the fact that they also signed Adam Loewen, who was drafted in the 2002 draft #4 as a pitcher, we can clearly start to see Toronto’s strategy of bringing in pitching talent (yes I know that Loewen is an OUTFIELDER.) They lost A.J. Burnett a few months back, and since the Yankees signed three Type A free agents this winter, the Jays won’t be getting the Yankees’ first round draft pick this summer.

Why in the world did the Padres and Kevin Towers have any interest in signing Brad Ausmus? Going all ShysterBall on y’all:

Ausmus, who makes his home in nearby Del Mar, Calif., was a player Towers talked too often during the offseason. The two are also friends.

Any ways that was short-lived, since he signed a few hours later to be Russell Martin’s backup in Los Angeles. Towers countered immediately by signing Henry Blanco.

Is it just me, or are these two teams in strict competition over major league retreads who shouldn’t even be bringing a bat into the batters box? Blanco thankfully is a much more competent hitter than Ausmus, still neither of them should ever be pushed into full-time duty if need be. I think this all started when Towers countered Ned Colletti’s Juan Castro signing with his signing of David Eckstein. Exciting. These kind of things only happen on the left coast…

This is the only fitting thing to do.

***

Manager Bud Black didn’t need to be sold on the idea of David Eckstein signing with the Padres.

Uh oh, you know where this is going.

During their first stint together in 2001, Eckstein —- who agreed to a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Padres on Thursday to play second base —- quickly made a strong impression on Black, then the Angels’ pitching coach. Black remembered that, because of an injury, the Angels asked the unheralded rookie, a 5-foot-6, 170-pound waiver claim, to switch from second base to shortstop during spring training.

Here we go… we’re getting warmed up folks.

Eckstein responded quickly, Black recalled, thus beginning a successful run in which he was the club’s shortstop for four seasons, including the 2002 World Series championship team.

Eckstein had as much of a role on their team’s success as the Rally Monkey did. Take that thought as you may.

“We had a coaches’ meeting, and Mike (Scioscia) asked Alfredo Griffin if he thought Eck could be a shortstop,” Black said. “Alfredo looked at Mike and said, ‘I don’t know about the arm, but let’s give it a shot.’ He put a ton of time in at short, did everything he could to adapt to making all throws. He did everything he could to make himself a shortstop in about a two-to-three-week period.

Arm? Check. Range? Check. Bat? Check. Wait a minute…

“It was great to watch.”

Says whom?

Now Eckstein, a two-time All-Star, hopes to make an equally large impression in San Diego. Saying he turned down bigger contracts, Eckstein was lured to the Padres by the promise of being their starting second baseman.

What “bigger contracts” did he turn down? He wasn’t exactly Boston’s Plan B after they lost out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes.

Eckstein said he nearly signed with the Padres for the 2008 season, but they had already made an offer to Tadahito Iguchi. Eckstein, who turns 34 on Tuesday, instead signed with Toronto and was later traded to Arizona, hitting a combined .265 in 324 at-bats.

Earning his 4.5MM salary with honor and pride (hitting two homers and stealing two bases in the process.)

“I knew (the Padres) couldn’t make the commitment financially, but they could offer the opportunity,” said Eckstein, who can earn an additional $150,000 in incentives. “There were definitely other offers out there, with probably more money, but I wanted the opportunity as everyday second baseman.”

What really happened was that Kevin Towers saw his rival Dodgers sign Juan Castro, and Towers made this move out of fear.

General manager Kevin Towers said the Padres’ pursuit of Eckstein last year was slowed by the mistaken belief that Eckstein wanted to stay at shortstop, and the club decided to offer Iguchi a contract first. By the time the confusion was cleared up, Iguchi was on the verge of signing and Towers said he “felt obligated” not to go back on his word. But a year later, Towers believes Eckstein’s addition will pay immediate dividends.

It didn’t also help that Eckstein was originally seeking a three year contract in excess of 27MM in total as well.

“You could hear it in David’s voice,” Towers said. “The enthusiasm and passion for winning baseball. You immediately make your ballclub better. Watching him from the opposing (side), he was a fierce competitor. He always found a way to make something happen.”

Yeah I agree. The Padres now have a “fierce” middle infield. What’s the over/under on whether they’ll lose 100 games this season?

Black is similarly excited to have Eckstein, who owns a .351 career on-base percentage. For a team coming off a season in which it finished with a .317 on-base percentage, its lowest since 1993, Eckstein could be the perfect fit.

Technically I can think of better “perfect fits” than Eckstein.

“First and foremost, he’s a good player and he’s going to bring an element to our club that we need,” Black said. “He has a knack to get on base. He’s a great handler of the bat. He gets big hits off good pitchers. And the way he goes about the daily grind of playing baseball, it’s going to be great for our younger players.”

Hahahaha, yeah right. It must be because David’s a “scrappy” player. Oh well. The only thing this move will do is make Jake Peavy waive his no-trade clause at a much faster rate than before… I’m so glad I’m not a Padres fan today.

I remember reading Baseball Weekly about ten years ago, and they had a piece in there about the “super agents” (I had this thing delivered to my parents’ place, back when it was only $0.75 an issue.) Any ways at this time, mammoth deals were being struck between players and teams. Alex Rodriguez getting 251MM from the Rangers, Derek Jeter getting 189MM from the Yankees, Manny Ramirez getting 160MM from the Red Sox, et al. I forget who the writer was (it might have been Bob Nightengale), however they portrayed the lives of the two super agents, who at the time were Scott Boras and Jeff Moorad.

Moorad with 2008 Presidential Candidate John McCain (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Boras had an impressive list of clients under his stable, however at the time so did Moorad (Matt Williams, Will Clark, et al.) Any ways long story short, Moorad took an executive position with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2004, and has since resigned as of this weekend. The reason why, he’s taking an ownership stake with the San Diego Padres (a divorce precipitated this team’s sale.)

Any ways long story short, my how the tables have turned. It’ll be interesting to see how Moorad deals with a number of things, from the team’s payroll constraints, to their GM Kevin Towers, to the rising salaries of his up-and-coming stars like Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez (his bargain contract is about to be up.) And of course, there’s the whole Jake Peavy saga. Personally I’m glad to see this happen. Padres fans need an owner who will bring a resurgent commitment to the team.

The Latest Brian Roberts Rumor

I wanted to chime in on one more rumor, spread around by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles and White Sox are talking trade for their (2007 All Star) second baseman Brian Roberts. The name that was brought up by Andy MacPhail was Gavin Floyd, a Maryland native who won 17 games with the White Sox in 2008. Ken Williams and the White Sox want to trade the two players straight up, however I expect MacPhail to ask for two more players at least. Floyd’s 2008 win total essentially doubled his career total in parts of four other seasons.

Granted I would love to see this deal, I know Floyd’s potential. Roberts is a free agent in 2009, Floyd is under team control for four more years (being arbitration eligible through his 2010-2012 seasons.) Roberts would essentially need an extension on Chicago’s end, and as Roch mentioned, the Orioles could then ask for their top Triple A second baseman Chris Getz. The White Sox are deep with middle infielders in their system, especially after drafting Gordon Beckham last summer.

So long story short, if I was MacPhail and I was offered four years of Floyd and six years of Getz for one of Roberts (plus Roberts’ 8MM salary coming off the books for 2009), would I make this trade? It would be an easy call for me, but knowing MacPhail he’d probably get Williams to throw in two more minor league players, much like how he did with the Erik Bedard and Ramon Hernandez deals. In other words, it’ll take three or four players built around Floyd to get one year of Roberts. Lunatic yes, but then again that’s how MacPhail rolls. And as an O’s fan I couldn’t be any happier.

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.

According to Josh Towers in the Union Tribune, a three-way trade framework is in place. At a minimum, the Cubs will get Jake Peavy, the Padres get Garrett Olsen, and the Orioles will get Felix Pie. All three teams are clearly happy, and this trade is just pending approval on the Cubs’ side (keep in mind an impending team sale.) I forget what I read, but apparently Kevin Towers wants this either done by Thursday, or Peavy will open 2009 as a Padre.

Regardless, I’ve expressed my interest in Pie before, and I think Olsen is a fair price for the gamble on his talents.

Here’s a shocker: the Cardinals acquired Padres shortstop Khalil Greene for a pair of “relief prospects". There was speculation that he was going to be traded before next week’s Winter meetings, and with Kevin Towers under orders to cut payroll, Greene and his 6.5MM was a logical choice to go. Until we know more about the prospects, it’s hard to rate this trade. Still give credit to the Cardinals for being there on the end of the salary dump. On an aside, I’m glad that the Orioles didn’t cough up Garrett Olsen for Greene.

After hitting 27 HR in 2007, Greene dropped down to 10 in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

Before Thanksgiving, we heard rumors about a Third Team being involved with the Cubs and Padres in a blockbuster trade for Padres’ ace Jake Peavy. That mysterious team, at least according to Steve Gilbert of mlb.com, is the Orioles. I’ve been saying for some time now that if the Padres were to trade their ace, they’d want back MLB-ready pitching. The Cubs have some, but it’s not exactly what the Padres are expecting. Rich Hill’s stock has fallen dramatically, Sean Marshall doesn’t fit their bill, and of course there’s Jason Marquis, who has 9MM owed to him in the final year of his three-year contract signed two years ago.

The Padres have been coveting Oriole’s hurler Garrett Olsen, a soft-tosser who might be best moving to the weaker National League. He’s dominated at the minor league level, however is far too inconsistent in the majors. Granted the Orioles probably didn’t give him enough time to develop (likewise with John Maine), however if he alone could net you Felix Pie, then the move should be made. Andy MacPhail and the Orioles have been coveting Pie for sometime now. He was the Cubs top prospect in 2007, however likewise with many Cubs prospects of late (e.g. Don Veal), his stock as fallen. I honestly believed that he was about to be heading to Baltimore this past Spring with Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts (I read a incredibly-respectable source.) However that trade didn’t happen (and Gallagher is now a member of the A’s rotation.)

Long story short, if MacPhail pulls off this move and acquires Pie during the Winter Meetings in two weeks, I’ll be very happy. An outfield of Pie, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones could be incredible, especially with all three of them being 25 and under. Luke Scott could be part of a DH platoon, and Aubrey Huff could be the team’s first baseman. Granted I know that Baltimore would be moving some pitching for acquiring hitting, but this is a move that I would like. There are many people in Chicago who are saying that the team shouldn’t be giving up on Pie right now. Besides, given how slow the market has been going of late, the team might be able to snag a starter for cheap soon.

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

Baseball America has its Top 10 prospects up for the Orioles up now. I know it’s a subscriber-only link (for now, until it gets formally published next year), however they project the team’s rotation for 2012:

1. Chris Tillman
2. Brian Matusz
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Jeremy Guthrie
5. Radhames Liz

That’s an intriguing top three (especially how highly they regard Tillman, though he’ll be further along by 2012 than Matusz or Arrieta will.) One name left off the list however is Danys Baez. He signed that repulsive three year, 19MM deal back in 2006, and will make 5.5MM in 2009 in his walk year. He got the money he got simply because of the fact that he padded his resume with some “closer experience.”

A couple of days ago, Baez informed team officials that he would like to start again. Since we’re not in 2012 yet, and the team’s rotation is currently a mess, it never hurts to listen to this from an open ear. The last time he started was in 2002, when he made all 26 of his career starts. The results that season weren’t anything spectacular, he was essentially an “innings eater", and Baltimore needs two or three of these now.

My opinion: give him a chance to start, I’m not opposed to it. He’ll eat innings, and could preserve a potentially solid bullpen. Besides, 5.5MM would be better spent on a mid-tier starter than it would be on a middle reliever.

Baez was 10-11, 4.41 in that 2002 season (mlb.com.)

More “no-brainer” option decisions

I’ll summarize these up rather quickly.

• The Rangers picked up the 6.2MM 2009 option on Hank Blalock. His second half was strong and he might make a good trade chip come next July. This decision was easy.
• The Yankees declined Damaso Marte’s 2009 6MM option. Too much money for a middle reliever, however he’s in high demand this winter.
• Brian Giles (finally) had his 9MM 2009 option picked up by the Padres. Again, the front office shouldn’t have even had to think about this choice, he was easily one of the best corner outfielders last season.

One free agent signing occurred yesterday, with the Astros agreeing to a 3.5MM contract with reliever LaTroy Hawkins. He was lights-out for the team after coming over from the Yankees mid-season last year (2-0 with an 0.43 ERA in 24 appearances), and this isn’t that bad of a contract.

Update: the Peavy to the Braves trade now seems highly unlikely, especially since Frank Wren doesn’t want to surrender the Braves’ top talent.

I wrote about this earlier last week, and the topic has gotten more and more attention since then. Any ways for the most part, due to issues such as no-trade clauses and prospect availability, the only team that has been linked with the Jake Peavy trade rumors has been the Atlanta Braves. There have been a number of suggestions linked, and the one group that has been mentioned is Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar. Hanson for the most part is their only pitching prospect, Schafer lost some of his early season glitter after his 50 game HGH suspension, and Johnson/Escobar are regulars in the Braves infield.

Any ways personally I don’t feel that is enough for Peavy, who if going by the “good season", “off season” trend for Padres pitchers (which started with Oliver Perez and Brian Lawrence) is due for one hell of a season in 2008. Keith Law for the most part agrees.

The first question I have is why is Jason Heyward’s name not mentioned in these rumors? He should be the starting centerpiece for any deal for Peavy. I know that people don’t like trading their 2007 draft picks, however the Brewers did it with Matt LaPorta when they acquired C.C. Sabathia. I know that I’m not Paul DePodesta, but this is what I would do if I would shop Peavy (which I’m still not sure if the Padres even want to trade.)

Any ways Sickels coincidentally did his 20 best prospects for the Braves last night, during Game 2 of the World Series, and in media res of these Peavy talks. He ranked the prospects, and Heyward is #1, Hanson is #3 and Schafer is #4. Heyward got an A-, and Hanson and Schafer got B+es. Any ways his comments on Heyward:

A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.

Some remarks on Tommy Hanson:

Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.

And a humorous quip on Schafer:

Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.

Any ways to surmise what the Padres could be getting here, a #3 pitching prospect, a #4 outfield prospect, and a regressing infielder in Johnson for an All Star in Peavy (who still had a 2.85 ERA in a “down” year?) If DePodesta pulled the trigger on this trade, we’d be ridiculing him, since this is a worse haul than the Twins got for Johan Santana. The city of San Diego would probably go after him as well.

Any ways to the Braves fans, start the package with Heyward. Throw in Hanson and two other top pitching prospects (kinda barren here) and you can have Peavy. That would do it for me, and would probably do it for the Padres as well. That’s the template which got the Mariners Erik Bedard, the Diamondbacks Dan Haren, the Brewers Sabathia and the Twins Santana.

If the Padres need help in looking for Braves pitching prospects, they can wait a few weeks for Baseball America to do their top 10 organizational prospects. They usually do the NL teams in November and the AL teams in January. Still there’s one thing that’s certain about these Peavy trade rumors: there should be no rush whatsoever on the Padres’ part to move their ace.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

If Kevin Millar refers to (Yankee reliever) Edwar Ramirez as “good hittin’", I’m curious as to what other AL hitters are saying about Justin Verlander. I’m looking foolish for putting him as a lock to win 20 games this year (as are many people), but with his stuff I’m confused why he isn’t pitching better. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tries to delve further into an analysis of it, but in the long run, one of the primary barometers of a pitcher is his velocity, and Verlander’s velocity is not down this year. Any ways injury concerns can be dismissed because of it, and there was a stretch from May to July where Verlander was as good as he was his first two years in the majors. He’s got exceptional stuff, and I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but his season is simply indicative of the Tigers’ in general.

Speaking of ESPN, I was watching Baseball Tonight this past weekend and the hosts started to prattle off a list of intriguing two-start pitchers for fantasy baseball. I was albeit drunk at this time, however I need someone to fill out my patchwork rotation in one of my leagues (the two-start pitchers that RotoWorld suggested were people that I could obviously never find on a waiver wire.) I remembered Ricky Nolassco’s name mentioned as him making two starts on the road this week, one in San Francisco and one in Arizona, and they recommended him as a pick. Taking their advice for the sake of things, I plugged Nolassco into my rotation and was rewarded with a nifty two-hitter. I know I rift on ESPN from time to time, that is with their affinity towards the Red Sox (e.g. The Nation!), but their fantasy guys saved my ass. They get my thanks for one week.

• I wanted to chime in on the Greg Maddux trade to the Dodgers, something which broke on ESPN Monday night. I read through Paul DePodesta’s blog about how the Padres are seeking players in return for the Professor, instead of cash assistance. Any ways going through the comments in the bottom, one fan asked if the Dodgers would get compensation if Maddux walked. DePodesta for the most part said “no", since the Dodgers would have to offer Maddux arbitration in the offseason. And as DePodesta responded, Maddux has accepted their offer before (the last thing the Dodgers would need is another one year, 10MM deal with Maddux for ‘09.)
• My friend sent me an interesting read about the Chinese and baseball in the Olympics (not the Chi-coms!) Any ways in regards to the Matt LaPorta injury, it only leads me to wonder if MLB will further scale back on the players that it sends to the Olympics. This incident is interesting, especially from Mark Shapiro and the Indians’ take, since they gave up a pretty penny to acquire LaPorta from the Brewers in July.

• Lastly to close on the Orioles, they made some roster moves. Closer George Sherrill is on the DL (which doesn’t surpise me, considering how worked he’s been.) They also moved Garrett Olsen and Dennis Sarfate out of the rotation. Sarfate has stuff that’s just as good as Verlander’s. He’s at times unhittable, however he walks about six men per nine innings, which is not good. Until that improves, Sarfate’s career as a starter is on hold. Olsen on the other hand might be over-worked himself. A couple starts ago he pitched a shutout into the ninth inning. That was against the Mariners nonetheless, however Major League teams are hitting him hard. Time out will do both pitchers good. Young pitching is good for a team, but is something you can’t rely on all season long (ask the Yankees this year.)

  In regards to what they do in the offseason, I was thinking, that is about their payroll. I expect it to hover around 70MM, and that will include 10MM off the books with Jay Payton leaving, and Chad Bradford recently traded. Before they consider signing Mark Teixiera, they’ll need to sign their own players in house. Sherrill will surely want a raise from the 900K he earned in 2008, and Nick Markakis‘ salary is expected to increase ten-fold once he hits arbitration. Thankfully for the team, Jeremy Guthrie can still be kept at league minimum for another year.