Late Innings

In case anyone’s interested, Aubrey Huff is currently a -0.4 WAR player. That means he’s costing the Orioles 1.6MM on top of his 8MM salary. With this news we have the following trade:

The Detroit Tigers bolstered their offense for a pennant drive by obtaining first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday for a minor leaguer.

“I’ve been in last place basically my whole career, so this is an exciting time for me,” Huff said. “I’m looking forward to it.”

The Tigers began Monday leading the Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. The last-place Orioles obtained pitcher Brett Jacobson from Detroit and assigned the right-hander to Class A Frederick.

Jacobson is the Tigers’ 10th best prospect, being selected in the fourth round in last year’s draft. RotoWorld projects Jacobson as “an above average middle reliever and possible setup man.” For them to ship off a player with negative value for an intriguing talent, Andy MacPhail is clearly doing more than dumping salary here.

With tonight’s deadline to sign players drafted in the June Amateur Draft approaching, I wanted to bring up the contenders for next year’s #1 Draft Pick in June 2010:

I could have calculated the GB better, and I could also calculate Washington’s “magic number” to clinch this division, but then again it really doesn’t matter. The “Natinals” have been playing better, while Kansas City has been bad in the second half, Baltimore has yet to win a series since the All Star break happened. I’m not suggesting that Baltimore has a good chance at Harper, but if they continue to stink they’ll have this kid come next June.

Then again, as most people know, the key theme to the 2009 draft has been one word: signability. The top three draft picks, Steven Strasburg, Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate are all represented by … Scott Boras. And that Harper kid is also represented by … (drum roll please) … Boras.

Boras has stated before that he wanted to “revolutionize” how the draft works. In other words he simply wants to have his clients paid more. As most people know, he wants 50MM for Strasburg. Tate’s about to sign for 6MM, but he wants over 10MM for Ackley, a solid outfielder but only projects as a 15/15 hitter. The first two picks would have “record” bonuses, eclipsing whatever was paid to Mark Prior when drafted by the Cubs.

This past draft is also chock full of high school pitchers who want Rick Porcello money, Ackley’s UNC teammate Alex White who wants to be paid like Adam Wainwright (someone should tell him that he needs a 90 MPH fastball before that happens), and Aaron Crow, drafted by the “Natinals” last year but couldn’t agree to terms (I think they offered something like 3.9MM.) Crow pitched a year in the independent leagues, and was redrafted by the Royals who in turn offered him 3MM, which he is scoffing at. If this pitcher has brains and also is as polished as his left-handed counterpart Brian Matusz, he would be in Washington pitching right now. Matusz already has three major league starts under his belt.

I don’t understand why these amateur picks turn down top dollars? Remember Matt Harrington, offered millions of dollars by the Cubs, etc. He’s now changing tires at Wal-Mart for a living. Now I’m not suggesting that Crow or Strasburg will go the way of Harrington, but they are foolish to think that some team is going to sign them for more money the following year, not with (a) the current draft structure and (b) the economy the way it is. Strasburg is clearly the closest thing to the real deal, but if he’s turning down “record” contracts, something’s clearly wrong with the draft.

About a couple weeks ago, I wrote a glowing essay on why Baltimore fans should warm up to Felix Pie, their reserve outfielder who’s struggling in his first season as an Oriole. My argument was simple, look past the stats he put up during April. If you look at Pie from May 1st on to today, he’s a .308/.351/.495 hitter. No wonder he wouldn’t pass through waivers.

Up until last night’s blowout of the Angels, many fans would trash the Dave Trembley whenever Pie received an occasional spot start. Heck some fans were bitching that Andy MacPhail traded away Oscar Salazar instead of him. Sheesh.

I’m starting to see glowing support from many Orioles fans now for Pie, especially with struggles to Melvin Mora and Luke Scott, as well as injury concerns to Nolan Reimold. Hopefully last night’s cycle woke some fans up, Pie is (to paraphrase RotoWorld) “oozes” with talent. This kid should hopefully get more playing time now, and hopefully Baltimore will have their own King Felix soon. In the meantime however, my colleagues (the Orioles fans) aren’t getting any smarter.

With the non-waiver trading deadline coming and going, we can now look forward to see what players could potentially be moved (through waivers) in August. Baltimore has a slew of potential players, from Aubrey Huff to Melvin Mora to some of the older bullpen arms. It shouldn’t take much to pull those players from the roster, heck after today’s rant Mora probably punched his ticket out of town. Mora’s defense albeit is solid, but his power evaporated, he is nothing more than a singles-hitter, when that does happen.

With the veterans coming off the roster, this will mean more playing time for their young rising stars. That is the usual suspects that people know: Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. One player left out of the mix however is reserve outfielder Felix Pie.

Baltimore fans shouldn’t be too quick to run Pie out of Charm City.

Pie, acquired from the Cubs during the offseason for Garret Olson and a relief pitching prospect, won the starting outfield job after camp broke, however didn’t exactly hit the ground running, batting .157/.246./.216 in April. By that point Reimold took over the full-time job, and Pie was the subject of much scorn from Baltimore fans.

With Pie on the bench however, he was the subject of numerous trade rumors. Pie is out of options, and there’s no way that Andy MacPhail could slip him through waivers unexposed. The team dealt away Oscar Salazar for relief help to keep him on the roster. While many Baltimore fans have been calling for Pie’s head, his performance after his dreadful month of April has been clearly rewarding, as per Pinto, he’s been a very solid .300/.347/.457 since then.

Manager Dave Trembley has been struggling to find him at bats, but he’s been settling in nicely as the team’s #2 hitter, getting on base two more times in today’s slugfest. While people when thinking of young Orioles on the rise tend to forget that Pie is still around, he’s clearly starting to make more noise. He projects as a solid #2 hitter in the future… now the only problem is to figure out how to get enough at bats to him, Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. Also Luke Scott is still in the picture as well. For the Orioles, this problem is a good problem to have.

Again more on Matt Hobgood, I’m seeing glowing reviews on the kid. From AOL’s Fan House, who had a roundtable discussion on the draft with editors from the likes of Baseball America and such:

Klima said the Orioles might take some heat for picking Southern California prep righty Matt Hobgood at No. 5, but he liked the selection. He’s compared him to Matt Cain.

Wow, that’s a comparison I like, much better than the Sidney Ponson ones. Now was this really a “surprise” pick, or did the Orioles know what they were doing:

“I think they saw a right handed staff anchor, which is why they went for him,” Klima said. “I know they were on him pretty good all year. It wasn’t a fly-by-night sign-ability pick. They did like him. I’m sure they are thinking they have Brian Matusz (the No. 4 pick from last year) left and Hobgood from the right. Baltimore fans are surprised he went that high, but most people didn’t think he’d get out of the first 10.”

Just because Hobgood didn’t land in the first round of many “expert” mock drafts (sans Jim Callis) doesn’t mean that he was a sign-ability pressure pick (see Pittsburgh and Sanchez.) Hobgood has excellent peripherals, and if he gets a change up in his repitoire, he could be tough. As I said yesterday, hopefully he won’t wait until the eleventh hour to sign, and he can get into the Orioles’ system as soon as possible.

As it turns out, other teams wanted Hobgood too, since he would have easily been a Top 10 draft pick. I’m just surprised that he flew under the radar like he did. I guess Joe Jordan and his scouting staff know more about talent evaluation than the casual fan does. Now if Hobgood can be just as good as Cain, I’ll tip my glass to their front office.

When I get a topic, I usually cover it ad nauseum. In that case, I wanted to delve more into the Matt Hobgood drafting by the Orioles. Was it a signability issue? I’m not sure. We’ll never know.

I was reading Keith Law’s piece today, and he was criticizing the Pirates for taking Tony Sanchez at #4. The Pirates had their pick of high school arms to go after, like Jacob Turner, Zack Wheeler and Tyler Matzek. They instead chose a catcher with little upside. I saw somewhere that if he hits .250 with 12 homers they’ll be happy (honestly that’s not bad production in my book.)

Last year the Pirates broke the bank and took Pedro Alvarez. The main similarity between this year is that both players were advanced college players, with Alvarez from Vanderbilt and Sanchez from Boston College. The same thing applies to Brian Matusz, whom the Orioles paid out 3.4MM to after drafting him fourth last year. The main difference between Matusz and the three aforementioned high school arms is that Matusz was highly advanced, coming from the University of San Diego (not to be confused with San Diego State where Mr. Strasburg came from.) He’s currently ready to be moved to Double-A Bowie.

Most of the top picks from last years draft were from college, with exception to Tim Beckham and Eric Hosmer. This year it seemed it was high school heavy talent.

I’m not Joe Jordan, but I can understand why he took Hobgood. High school arms can go many ways. Granted Rick Porcello is an interesting (and successful) case, but the franchise has been burned before by taking high school arms (e.g. Adam Loewen.) Hobgood has a plus fastball and a plus slider, but he needs to develop a breaking pitch. The Orioles don’t need him immediately, but he might be an interesting option four years from now.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. The Porcello contract set a bad precedent, and now the flood gates have opened with more and more high school arms who can dial into the high 90s seeking big money. The slot recommendation doesn’t matter, and even with it being dropped 10% due to the economy, Scott Boras will hold out until his clients get the top dollar possible.

I haven’t written here in a while. It’s a long story, no doubt. However I wanted to discuss one of my most favorite topics, the MLB Amateur Draft. I know to some people like Keith Law and John Sickels, today is a national holiday for them (actually it’s more of a weekend, given the three days of the draft.) For me, it’s another day of drinking, though not as excessive as Flag Day.

Anyone with their right mind knew that the Nationals were going to take Stephen Strasburg, it’s a given. And we are all ready to watch the contract negotiations unfold with Scott Boras in the picture. My popcorn is ready. The Mariners took UNC 1B/CF Dustin Ackley with the obvious #2 pick. Honestly I would have liked to see him fall down to the #5 spot (which the Orioles had), but he was clearly the best hitter in the draft. And with Scott Boras as his “advisor", like Strasburg he could easily command 10MM in guaranteed money. I saw Ackley play this weekend Sunday against South Carolina, and liked what I saw. Great batting eye, great defense (especially when he moves back to CF after the injury heals), however it might take some time for his power to develop.

…

The first four picks of the draft were rightly predicted, however the Orioles surprised me by taking Matt Hobgood. From what people are writing, he’s a big kid who’s projected to be a power pitcher in the late innings. The Orioles could have taken Zack Wheeler (as I expected), but I think signability played a role here. Baltimore’s system is loaded with young pitching, but Wheeler would have fit nicely (in the big leagues by 2012.) San Fransisco immediately took him with the next pick (and he looks nice with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson in the system as well.)

If Baltimore hadn’t taken Wheeler, I thought about (UNC SS) Grant Green as a possibility, but then he didn’t fit the mold as a typical defensive shortstop that Andy MacPhail wants. I really would have liked them to get Wheeler, and I’m curious to know the motivations why he wasn’t picked. From what Rich Lederer wrote in today’s live blog:

Hopgood was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year yesterday. He is a big bodied pitcher who can also hit. Baltimore clearly liked him better than any other team. He is committed to Cal State Fullerton but is likely to be a fairly easy sign at this spot.

Still him and Marc Hulet were just as surprised as I was. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t question Joe Jordan, whose done an excellent job as the scouting director for the Orioles in the past four years, but this move has me scratching my head.

Then again the economy clearly played a role here. I’ve never before seen so many high school arms seeking Rick Porcello money (a bad precedent the minute it was set by Detroit.) But then again that didn’t stop many teams today, especially Detroit (again), who took Justin Turner at the #9 spot (and he could command 7MM by the August 17th deadline.)

***

Now back to the main story, the Nats took Strasburg. What would it take to sign him? I’d offer him 15MM right off the bat and leave the offer on the table. That’s what everyone is expecting, and I feel that it is clearly fair. He won’t get 50MM (sorry Jon, Boras Corporation contractor), not in this economy. There have been stories galore leading up to today which shown the #1 pitching picks from years back… the best of the bunch was Andy Benes, a mediocre Padres pitcher who compiled a .500 winning percentage in his career. His brother Alan also pitched in the National League, and like his brother was a .500 pitcher (29-28 over eight seasons.)

Outside of Strasburg, we might see Ackley get 10MM, and I think that’s a strong possibility. Still, in looking at this draft, it was clearly top heavy. Last year’s draft showcased more pure hitters, while this one showcased tons of high school arms. Still I expect most of these players to wait until the last minute to sign, like last season. Granted some first round picks from last year signed quickly, like Buster Posey (Giants), Tim Beckham (Rays) and Kyle Skipworth (Marlins.) This year might be different. I expect the Pirates to sign Tony Sanchez quickly, and the same thing goes with the Orioles and Hobgood. Maybe that’s a good thing, since Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters waited until the 11th hour to sign in years past. Hopefully he’ll sign quickly and will be playing ball in the rookie leagues by Summer’s end.

Is the shit motherfuckers. He was the Minor League pitcher of the year for the O’s in 2008, and I’ve been clearly drinking in 2009.

Major League Debut mfs.

Strange stat of the day, Kansas City leads the majors in runs allowed, allowing only a paltry 21 runs. Conversely speaking, they have also scored the fewest amount of runs in the majors as well (touching plate only 18 times!)

Now on to the brawn, Baltimore is fifth the majors in runs scored, crossing the plate 43 times. They are also fifth in the majors with runs allowed, allowing a whopping 45 runs. It’s not as bad as Cleveland, and it’s been a well-known fact that Baltimore’s bats can rake. Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and co. are doing their jobs, it’s the pitching staff that isn’t. Now for kicks, if we could just supplant the Royals’ rotation and bullpen in Baltimore, we’d have a pennant team that will probably win about 125 games.

The Orioles will shatter the major league record for runs scored plus runs against. It’s just a hunch. Will you go over or under on 1,700?

I thought this was an interesting story to come up today, an interesting Opening Day indeed. Seattle’s first round draft picks from the last three drafts, that is Brandon Morrow (2006), Phillippe Aumont (2007) and Joshua Fields (2008), could all find themselves in the M’s bullpen by the end of the season. Granted I know that Morrow and Aumont were drafted as starters, but Bill Bavasi and the team’s scouting department grabbed Fields in hope of him being their future closer. They’re all outstanding arms, don’t get me wrong, however it’s interesting that these three prospects ended up in the same situation. Morrow is the team’s closer going forward (due to a diabetes issue), and these two complementing arms could constitute an excellent bullpen in Seattle. Another unexpected consequence of the Bavasi administration…

Updating Sabathia

I’m watching the O’s/Yanks currently, and Baltimore has plated three runs against the Yankees’ 161MM man C.C. Sabathia. Jeremy Guthrie looks very sharp, and apparently has shaken off his rough Spring. It’s a shame that Cliff Lee couldn’t do the same thing himself today…

Please release Adam Eaton.

Sincerely,
Mike

So the Marlins acquired Hayden Penn today (I honestly thought this was an April Fools’ joke when I first saw it.) It was essentially a swap of players who are out of options who probably wouldn’t pass through waivers. Some of the moves that the Marlins are making confuse me. It started last night with them releasing Dallas McPherson. Tossing the political barb aside from the piece ("the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News"), the main point here is that Emilio Bonifacio is the third baseman.

I agree with many that they should have moved Dan Uggla to third a month ago (and installed Bonifacio at second) if they were playing for defense, but this move essentially leaves them in the same situation that the L.A. Angels have, which is no power at the hot corner. They moved Jorge Cantu to first, and also acquired Ross Gload today from the Royals (a big head-shaking move.) Wow.

***

I’m glad the Orioles at least got something for Penn, whom I think will make out well in the National League. I understand that the term “top prospect” has been floated around in regards to Penn. Keep in mind that this is the Sid Thrift Orioles. Penn at least landed on Prospect Top 100 lists across the country, but he wasn’t the pitching prospect that Brian Matusz or Chris Tillman is. John Sickels regards Penn high however, when asked the question if he sees another John Maine developing in Penn:

I can see that, yes, though the parallel is inexact as I think their styles of pitching are rather different and the things that have held Penn back are different than the things that held Maine back.

When Penn first came up in 2005, he was fed to the wolves as a 20 year old. He started out well, and was very good for the first month or so, then fell apart. 2006 was a disaster, and he hasn’t been in the majors after that. With the Marlins he’ll at least make the roster.

I’m looking today at all the pitchers that are being rushed into rotations across the country. We have Trevor Chahill and Brett Anderson in Oakland, James McDonald in Los Angeles, Jordan Zimmerman and Shairon Martis in Washington, and Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond in Toronto. Had it not been for the rotation depth in Atlanta, they probably would have had Tommy Hanson in their rotation as well. Oh, and Rick Porcello made the Tigers’ rotation as well (Detroit doesn’t like their talent sitting around apparently, with their 2008 draft pick Ryan Perry making the bullpen.)

I saw what rushing a prospect can do to a young arm in Penn. Hopefully the same fate would fell these young arms as well. In regards to the infielder that the Orioles got back from Florida, I like Robert Andino, who fits into Andy MacPhail’s shortstop mold (all glove, bonus points hit.) He could potentially be a good long-term fit for the club, since they’ll only have Cesar Izturis through 2010. Now hopefully he won’t become the next Luis Hernandez.

The right side of the Orioles outfield looks fantastic. It’s athletic, fast, and will be running down many a fly ball. Couple it with an above-average Felix Pie (at least a 2.0 WAR player), and the outfield is one of the best in baseball. Jones, Pie and Markakis could all be center fielders, however Jones is the deep man, with the other two guys flanking him on each side.

Jones is having a great Spring, as is Markakis. Both players have expressed their desire to run the bases more in 2009 as well, and I’d expect more stolen bases from them. Markakis, being arbitration-eligible for the first time, got a new six-year contract two months back. Jones is looking forward to salary arbitration at the end of this season. In either case, both players should be plating similar numbers in 2009:

2009 Markakis Projection: .315 AVG, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 105 R, 18 SB, .395 OBP, .505 SLG

2009 Jones Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 27 SB, .345 OBP, .465 SLG

I have strong projections for both players, and wouldn’t be surprised if both players stole more bases in 2009. Markakis’ RBI dropped last year, however his walks and OBP rose. He got on base more, and as a result, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora each drove in over 100 runs. Markakis’ home run totals dropped last year, but he slugged nearly 50 doubles. Markakis should be fine, and I expect him to be better this year, especially since he’s cutting back on his strikeouts.

In regards to Jones, I don’t expect him to exhibit the same level of patience that Markakis has, but I expect him to be above-average as well. The average centerfielder has a .780 OPS. Many projections have him around there, I have him at .810. I think Jones will be great in 2009, and while the power hasn’t quite developed yet, he’s still a very useful late-round draft choice. While Markakis is a fourth round draft choice this year, I expect Jones to be in the fifth or sixth rounds in 2010.

Jayson Stark of ESPN also agrees. He has Jones and Markakis on his All-Bull Market team.

Alfredo Simon is apparently the Orioles’ fifth starter after tonight’s line against the Mets. Through six innings of one run ball, Simon now has a sparkling 1.13 ERA. For someone who was late to camp with visa issues, he’s putting on quite of a show. Now the dilemma that arises is that… he has options. Brian Bass and Hayden Penn do not, and if exposed to waivers will most likely be picked up. My suggestion, put Bass in the “deep end” of the rotation, Penn in the, um ‘pen (hahaha, I fucking, haha) and Adam Eaton back on the open market. Problem solved, and team ERA saved.

The nightly update writer at RotoWorld might disagree:

Simon appears likely to land in the rotation with his ERA sitting at 1.13 over 16 innings. Still, he’s a pretty horrible bet for the season. Simon has never had any success outside of A-ball, and his career ERA in Triple-A is over 6.00.

Man that was harsh. I’ve been studying Simon pretty hard since he’s been in Baltimore, and heck, even wrote this intelligent, intoxicated essay.