Late Innings

With tonight’s deadline to sign players drafted in the June Amateur Draft approaching, I wanted to bring up the contenders for next year’s #1 Draft Pick in June 2010:

I could have calculated the GB better, and I could also calculate Washington’s “magic number” to clinch this division, but then again it really doesn’t matter. The “Natinals” have been playing better, while Kansas City has been bad in the second half, Baltimore has yet to win a series since the All Star break happened. I’m not suggesting that Baltimore has a good chance at Harper, but if they continue to stink they’ll have this kid come next June.

Then again, as most people know, the key theme to the 2009 draft has been one word: signability. The top three draft picks, Steven Strasburg, Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate are all represented by … Scott Boras. And that Harper kid is also represented by … (drum roll please) … Boras.

Boras has stated before that he wanted to “revolutionize” how the draft works. In other words he simply wants to have his clients paid more. As most people know, he wants 50MM for Strasburg. Tate’s about to sign for 6MM, but he wants over 10MM for Ackley, a solid outfielder but only projects as a 15/15 hitter. The first two picks would have “record” bonuses, eclipsing whatever was paid to Mark Prior when drafted by the Cubs.

This past draft is also chock full of high school pitchers who want Rick Porcello money, Ackley’s UNC teammate Alex White who wants to be paid like Adam Wainwright (someone should tell him that he needs a 90 MPH fastball before that happens), and Aaron Crow, drafted by the “Natinals” last year but couldn’t agree to terms (I think they offered something like 3.9MM.) Crow pitched a year in the independent leagues, and was redrafted by the Royals who in turn offered him 3MM, which he is scoffing at. If this pitcher has brains and also is as polished as his left-handed counterpart Brian Matusz, he would be in Washington pitching right now. Matusz already has three major league starts under his belt.

I don’t understand why these amateur picks turn down top dollars? Remember Matt Harrington, offered millions of dollars by the Cubs, etc. He’s now changing tires at Wal-Mart for a living. Now I’m not suggesting that Crow or Strasburg will go the way of Harrington, but they are foolish to think that some team is going to sign them for more money the following year, not with (a) the current draft structure and (b) the economy the way it is. Strasburg is clearly the closest thing to the real deal, but if he’s turning down “record” contracts, something’s clearly wrong with the draft.

I haven’t written here in a while. It’s a long story, no doubt. However I wanted to discuss one of my most favorite topics, the MLB Amateur Draft. I know to some people like Keith Law and John Sickels, today is a national holiday for them (actually it’s more of a weekend, given the three days of the draft.) For me, it’s another day of drinking, though not as excessive as Flag Day.

Anyone with their right mind knew that the Nationals were going to take Stephen Strasburg, it’s a given. And we are all ready to watch the contract negotiations unfold with Scott Boras in the picture. My popcorn is ready. The Mariners took UNC 1B/CF Dustin Ackley with the obvious #2 pick. Honestly I would have liked to see him fall down to the #5 spot (which the Orioles had), but he was clearly the best hitter in the draft. And with Scott Boras as his “advisor", like Strasburg he could easily command 10MM in guaranteed money. I saw Ackley play this weekend Sunday against South Carolina, and liked what I saw. Great batting eye, great defense (especially when he moves back to CF after the injury heals), however it might take some time for his power to develop.

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The first four picks of the draft were rightly predicted, however the Orioles surprised me by taking Matt Hobgood. From what people are writing, he’s a big kid who’s projected to be a power pitcher in the late innings. The Orioles could have taken Zack Wheeler (as I expected), but I think signability played a role here. Baltimore’s system is loaded with young pitching, but Wheeler would have fit nicely (in the big leagues by 2012.) San Fransisco immediately took him with the next pick (and he looks nice with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson in the system as well.)

If Baltimore hadn’t taken Wheeler, I thought about (UNC SS) Grant Green as a possibility, but then he didn’t fit the mold as a typical defensive shortstop that Andy MacPhail wants. I really would have liked them to get Wheeler, and I’m curious to know the motivations why he wasn’t picked. From what Rich Lederer wrote in today’s live blog:

Hopgood was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year yesterday. He is a big bodied pitcher who can also hit. Baltimore clearly liked him better than any other team. He is committed to Cal State Fullerton but is likely to be a fairly easy sign at this spot.

Still him and Marc Hulet were just as surprised as I was. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t question Joe Jordan, whose done an excellent job as the scouting director for the Orioles in the past four years, but this move has me scratching my head.

Then again the economy clearly played a role here. I’ve never before seen so many high school arms seeking Rick Porcello money (a bad precedent the minute it was set by Detroit.) But then again that didn’t stop many teams today, especially Detroit (again), who took Justin Turner at the #9 spot (and he could command 7MM by the August 17th deadline.)

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Now back to the main story, the Nats took Strasburg. What would it take to sign him? I’d offer him 15MM right off the bat and leave the offer on the table. That’s what everyone is expecting, and I feel that it is clearly fair. He won’t get 50MM (sorry Jon, Boras Corporation contractor), not in this economy. There have been stories galore leading up to today which shown the #1 pitching picks from years back… the best of the bunch was Andy Benes, a mediocre Padres pitcher who compiled a .500 winning percentage in his career. His brother Alan also pitched in the National League, and like his brother was a .500 pitcher (29-28 over eight seasons.)

Outside of Strasburg, we might see Ackley get 10MM, and I think that’s a strong possibility. Still, in looking at this draft, it was clearly top heavy. Last year’s draft showcased more pure hitters, while this one showcased tons of high school arms. Still I expect most of these players to wait until the last minute to sign, like last season. Granted some first round picks from last year signed quickly, like Buster Posey (Giants), Tim Beckham (Rays) and Kyle Skipworth (Marlins.) This year might be different. I expect the Pirates to sign Tony Sanchez quickly, and the same thing goes with the Orioles and Hobgood. Maybe that’s a good thing, since Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters waited until the 11th hour to sign in years past. Hopefully he’ll sign quickly and will be playing ball in the rookie leagues by Summer’s end.

The Scott Boras Corporation comments on the Steven Strasburg situation:

The Nationals do indeed have history on their side. The precedent has long been set that $10 million is the ceiling. The leverage is very limited for these amateur players since no other league is comparable. If college players don’t sign, they can return to college and hope for better a year later, or they can go to an independent league. None in the past have tried playing overseas, or even using that as leverage, but nothing can be ruled out in this once-in-a-generation case.

Boras apparently caught wind of the stories circulating last week regarding Strasburg, and apparently likes what people are speculating. For him to snag 50MM for an amateur client is a win win for the mighty agent. This is clearly an aggressive piece from Boras. Boras fires this warning shot about Strasburg as follows:

A couple top collegians represented by Boras have declined to sign after being selected and offered million-dollar bonuses, including J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek. But only rare players such as those two have the fortitude to try it.

Boras essentially states that Strasburg will break all sorts of records with his signing. He’s going to get his money, good economy or bad. Or as he puts it in closing:

The Nationals have the money (Ted Lerner has been estimated to be baseball’s richest owner at about $4.5 billion, though in this falling economy it’s difficult to gauge anyone’s true net worth), and they certainly have the need. But they also have history on their side. That history says amateur players get $10 million tops. Strasburg should beat that figure. But the question is by how much.

Is it just me, or is having Scott Boras in charge of MLB rumors considered a conflict of interest?

There has been tons of talk lately about Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State pitching prospect who can hit 102 on a radar quite often. I’ve seen the videos of him pitching, the 23 strikeout game, the dominance over the Dutch, he looks good… however is he the best pitching prospect to come along in the past 15 years, or is this another drumming up from the PR Machine of the Scott Boras Corporation?

Oddly enough, Jon Heyman hasn’t chimed in, however ESPN’s Buster Olney got things started with this glowing blog entry a week back:

So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year’s draft?

“The best I’ve ever seen,” says a longtime scout. “And it’s not even close.”

C’mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal – tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You’re saying he’s better than what Prior was then?

“Easily,” says the scout, over the phone. “I’m telling you, it’s not even close.”

In other words, if Strasburg was on the free agent market this winter, he would be comparable to A.J. Burnett, who landed a 82MM contract with the New York Yankees back in December. However that wasn’t the case, and he’ll enter the 2009 Amateur Draft, most likely as the top overall selection, which is held by the Washington Nationals. However the ever-exciting Scott Boras caught wind of the aforementioned ESPN piece, and brought up his own idea on the price tag of this talented pitching prospect: 50MM in total compensation over six years.

As Dave Cameron reminds us, the record for total compensation of an amateur selection is held by Mark Prior, who got 10.5MM. Mark Teixeira is second with 9.9MM and David Price is third with 8.5MM…

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In looking at a comparable to Strasburg, I would definitely suggest Price. Both pitchers have clear #1 ceilings, however Strasburg has considerably more zip on his heater (though Price is known to hit trips in his as well.) ESPNs’ Keith Law disagrees, and says that there is no comparable to this pitcher. Jim Callis of BA tones down Olney as well:

Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he’s not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there’s little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.

John Sickels also has a few remarks himself:

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I’ve received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn’t pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

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With that stated, Strasburg is a fine talent, but at the same time he is mortal. In all fairness I could see him getting 10MM guaranteed next year, maybe 12MM, from whomever drafts him. 50MM? That could be a little too far fetched. Now with Washington having the top pick in the draft, could they take him first overall, knowing that Boras has these grandiose plans in place for his top pitching prospect? If they don’t take Strasburg, the next best available player (Grant Green) also has Boras “advising” him.

This isn’t the first time that Boras has thrown a wrench into the Amateur Draft. Boras represents Matt Wieters, and he fell all the way down to the #5 spot, where Baltimore gleefully took him (giving him the 6MM signing bonus he demanded.) Teams were reluctant to grab him due to the fact that Boras was his advisor (ask the Pirates how they like Daniel Moskos.) Could the same thing happen with Strasburg this year?

Given the fact that the Nationals lost out on Arron Crow, I’m sure they’ll take Strasburg with the #1 pick. And I do see them signing him, for reasons they they were unable to sign Crow and Teixeira. It won’t take 50MM, but in any case it’ll blow the slot recommendation out of the water.

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So what will be the outcome of the 2009 Amateur Draft? Simple. The owners will be pissed, primarily at Boras. As per their CBA, which expires in 2011, a team has control of a player for the first six years of his Major League service time. In half of those years, the player has leverage over his salaries (via arbitration), and the team has the other half. Now there are other factors which can influence things here (e.g. Super Twos), however when a player is given a Major League contract after he is drafted, this changes the leverage considerably. Take Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. He signed a Major League deal with the Indians back in 2002, and the contract didn’t expire until last year. Guthrie wasn’t arbitration eligible, so the team gave him the maximum pay cut, and he’ll make around 600K in 2009.

If Strasburg is to get that six year, 50MM Major League deal, the Nationals would all but certainly push him into their 2010 rotation right out of Spring Training (there’s no sense in paying him that money to remain in the minors.) He’ll serve out his six years, then get another monster deal once he becomes a free agent at the end of his 2015 season. Boras would love this scenario, but in this economy, I think we’re getting a little far ahead of ourselves here… but if this does happen, expect another labor/ownership holdout in 2011.

Ryan Zimmerman signed a one year (not multi-year) contract. With that news, we have no more arbitration hearings for 2009:

Bring on the playoffs baby.

Ryan Zimmerman is THE LAST MAN STANDING.

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And speaking of the Nationals, (non-related) Jordan Zimmerman is “a pitcher worth watching.”

Man, I can’t believe I’m writing about the Nationals tonight. Here’s to more arbitration hearings next year.

The Nationals signed the middle of the order bat they finally needed:

The Nationals finally got their left-handed slugging first baseman, signing free agent Adam Dunn to a two-year contract Wednesday, according to a baseball source. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Dunn’s a fine addition to their lineup, and has five straight 40 home run seasons under his belt. Nationals’ hitters like Ryan Zimmerman should benefit greatly. The team still has some dead weight however, such as AK-.227 and Nick Johnson, but thankfully their contracts will be expiring soon. Terms of this two year deal aren’t known yet, but hopefully he will be receiving more than Christian Guzman, who signed a two year, 16MM deal last summer.

On the whole this is a great move by Jim Bowden, how clearly saw something he liked in Dunn back when the two were in Cincinnati. And Nationals fans (if they exist) should be glad that Bowden dropped the coin on Dunn instead of Mark Teixeira. This is a baby-step in the right direction, however the odds of the team losing 100 games in 2009 is still relatively high.

I know I’m incredibly late with this post (same with the Mark Teixeira discussion.) I got a virus the other day, and that essentially put a damper in my fun. Long story short, everyone by now knows this story. The Orioles non-tendered starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera weeks back, the Nationals, Mets and Pirates were all interested, and Cabrera in fact ended up signing with the Nationals. He got 2.6MM from them for 2009 (essentially a seven percent pay cut from 2008), and is under team control until he becomes a free agent in 2010 (unless the Nationals refuse to tender him a contract next winter that is.)

This story was hit hard days after its announce, and just recently RotoProfessor asked the question as to whether you’d want to own him on your fantasy team. For me it’s an obvious and emphatic “no.” His WHIP is disgusting, strikeouts are down, and his ERA can go in a very bad tailspin in just a matter of three starts. He was essentially a .500 pitcher last year, and that’s largely thanks to a very solid first half. During that first half, many teams were inquiring on Cabrera, and Andy MacPhail could have dealt him easily to the Braves. The main reason why he didn’t? Baltimore was oddly enough in contention in the first half of 2008 (I know that’s odd.) They were a first place team for the first couple months of the season (again, strange), and MacPhail wasn’t going to sell apart a team that was playing incredibly well. The team then stumbled in June, peaked at four games over .500 in July, then went into their traditional late-season tailspin thereafter, locking themselves into the #5 pick for the 2009 Amateur Draft.

Am I disappointed that MacPhail didn’t sell high on Cabrera? Yes. Granted it was fun to watch the team win in April and May, but we all knew that it wasn’t going to last. MacPhail should have stuck to his plan, and not let the team’s sudden winning derail things. Then again, the “winning” allowed the Orioles to keep Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora on their rosters all season, and it was fun to see each of them reestablish their values (Huff was oddly enough not claimed after being exposed to waivers last year after his monster 2008 campaign.)

So anyways lets get back to Cabrera. What do I see from DC in DC? Well not much. I expect him to eat innings for them, being the team’s #3 starter behind John Lannan and Scott Olsen. In regards to others’ projections, Marcel has him at 8-11/4.85/1.55 next year, Bill James has him as a 7-9/5.00/1.53 pitcher. Those are grim signs. As BTBS pointed out weeks ago, Cabrera’s velocity was down in 2008. He relied too heavily on his fastball as well (even with the tutelage of Rick Kranitz), and wasn’t that much of a surprise to hitters. His slider is excellent, however he didn’t use it much. As a result of all of this, he was shutdown for all of September. Then again it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera threw about 3,500 pitches in 2007, and was in the top ten in this category. He pitched 200 innings that year, losing eighteen games in the process, so that wear and tear obviously played a role in 2008.

Long story short, Cabrera should be healthy in 2009. He’ll give the Nationals at least 180 innings in 2009, and at 2.6MM it’s a good deal. He might be a .500 pitcher, but I doubt it (Marcels’ projection is more realistic, given the Nationals’ anemic offense.) The main thing holding Daniel back is his control. When you’re allowing three hitters every two innings, it’s tough to be an effective pitcher. And even though Cabrera is going to the National League, and his ERA might be under five, his control problems are the main thing holding him back from becoming the “next Randy Johnson.” And coming from someone who watched him pitch countless times in Baltimore (often in disgust), my arguments clearly make sense here. The Orioles’ front office obviously was on the same page with me.

I recall a piece from last week on ESPN, essentially complaining about how the Yankees can throw their weight around and sign whomever. Take it if you may, but it did require that they in fact throw another 20MM and a seventh year at C.C. Sabathia, that’s what it required to get it done. A.J. Burnett? Again it took a fifth year and 17MM a year to get him pinstripes. So now there’s one key name left on the market, and there are potentially four teams left bidding for Mark Teixeira. So my question here is, why leave out the Yankees, like everyone is apparently doing?

If it wasn’t for the Yankees, Sabathia would have had to settle on 21MM a year. Burnett would have been lucky to get 14MM per. However unlike last year, they’re here to play, and the MLB Players Union (and Derek Lowe for that matter) can’t be any more grateful.

There was a story today on ESPN today about how the Orioles are suddenly likely to sign Teixeira. There were also rumors a plenty over the weekend about how Tex was in Baltimore over the weekend to watch the Steelers defeat the Ravens. A lot of fans in the area are anxious (me included) as well as excited about the possibility of Teixeira signing with his hometown team, the Orioles. My advice, I expect the Yankees to be late players.

Baltimore has been frugal with its cash since Andy MacPhail took helm, however one expensive investment that I would support would be signing Teixeira. He would bring much more value than just being on the field. His defense is extraordinary, he can hit, and he would be exactly what the Orioles need. Then again the same theory applies to the Nationals, and to the Angels, and as many other people are saying, to the Yankees as well.

Cardinals’ shortstop Felipe Lopez, acquired in media res last season from the Nationals, was quite the star. Looking at the slashes he got from his new team: .385/.426/.538. Wow. So teams on the West Coast are courting Edgar Renteria, Rafeal Furcal and Orlando Cabrera, yet no one is interested in Lopez? The reason why, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick puts it:

…his .418 batting average on balls in play after the All-Star break makes some teams wonder if there wasn’t an inordinate amount of luck involved…

Unless Scott Boras can sell him as “The Ted Williams of BABIP", then he won’t be getting paid on the same level as Furcal will. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad option. He runs well and has occasional power (though he won’t hit 23 HR again like he did in 2005), however I feel as though he got lazy the last couple of years. It’s amazing what free agency can do to a player. I won’t complain if some team gives him two years of 12MM baseball.

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I had some other links today to comment on, however in the spirit of Thanksgiving I donated them to Mr. Dierkes at Trade Rumors. So that’s why I’m rather quiet tonight. That, and I’ve been drinking heavily. And yes it’s only 6PM EST… so this will be a long night.

To paraphrase loosely what Joe Biden said during the Presidential Campaign, something big will happen tomorrow, in either the MLB free agent or trade market. I really hope so too; the market has been relatively stagnant of late. Any ways Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of Late Innings! I promise many months of useless posts ahead for your reading displeasure.

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

Really interesting day in baseball this afternoon, especially in the AL East. Both Toronto and the Yankees piled on fifteen runs today against the Red Sox and Royals. Baltimore slams Detroit pitching for sixteen runs as well. Both Melvin Mora and Alex Rios ended up with five hits apiece, and ERAs of pitching staffs rose today just like gas prices did this summer. And of course while all this was going on, the Little League World Series is in full effect. Could Scott Boras be scouting out the next thirteen year old phenom from Mexico, Curacao or Italy, taking out the parents to dinner in the process?

Any ways ending on that point, I wanted to mention that the 2008 Amateur Draft is for the most part over, as of Saturday morning. I read an interesting story on Baseball America, stating that the average signing bonus of the first round picks was record shattering this year, averaging around 2.45MM per player (that should drop slightly, since the Mariners can still sign Joshua Fields after the deadline, since he is a college senior.) In regards to the first round picks, while the bulk of the picks signed, there were a few exceptions. The Yankees failed to sign their twenty-eighth pick, pitcher Gerrit Cole, who chose college over the guaranteed money from a very “reasonable offer” from the Yankees. And the Nationals weren’t able to sign right-handed pitcher Aaron Crow; they will be compensated in next year’s draft.

I’ve heard varying points on this issue. Granted the Nationals are an eighty loss team, on pace to lose 105 games during the inauguration of their new stadium. There’s a trend to build teams around young talent (like Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Texas and Pittsburgh are doing), and the Nationals did fail to sign their first pick, a pitcher who’s polished enough to be a number two starter in any rotation (he’d be an ace in Washington.) I’ve heard people take the side of the pitcher in this debate, that Jim Bowden should have gave Crow the extra 700K to get him into their system. However in this case, I’m taking the side of the front office.

Bowden has made his share of bonehead moves this year, for investing 16MM in an injured All-Star Christian Guzman, and trading their closer Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for pennies on the dime. Still Bowden made all the moves necessary to get Crow pitching for them this winter. There’s an excellent piece today in the Washington Post explaining the hours leading up to the deadline between Bowden and the Hendricks brothers, the guys who served as Crow’s “advisor” (can’t say agent here.) In looking at Bowden’s words, he did everything he could possible to sign Crow, however the two parties simply ran out of time.

As most people know, I follow the Orioles more if anything, and there was some incredible talent to be picked from in this year’s draft. Baltimore had the fourth pick, and chose one of the two top pitchers in the draft, Brian Matusz. Their scouting director Joe Jordan probably would have preferred Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez, but they went one-two. The team had no need for Buster Posey, drafting Matt Weiters from Georgia Tech a year earlier. And as Jordan and Andy MacPhail said, they could have taken one of the very polished hitters (e.g. Justin Smoak), but wisely opted for Matusz.

In regards to the two pitchers, both of the polished arms are projected to be #2 starters. Personally I’m glad that the Orioles opted for Matusz, knowing that there’d be signability issues with Crow. Initially Crow and his party demanded 9MM, which explains why he dropped all the way down to the number nine pick in the draft. At 4pm EST on Friday last week, Matusz was under contract, a Major League one too (one of the two, the other given by the Reds to Yonder Alonso, someone I honestly expected to be going back to the Canes in ‘09.) According to Bowden, there was a Major League contract on the table for Crow, one very similar to Matusz’s deal, however Crow and his party weren’t willing to come down from the reduced 4MM that they were asking. Any ways midnight struck, and Crow’s fate was determined: he’ll be pitching this year in Texas for an independent team.

From the team’s perspective, was this this wisest move that the player made? He gave up a considerable amount of (guaranteed) money, and essentially set his career back a year. Granted he’ll be pitching this year, and will be eligible for the draft come next June, but will he go as high as he did again, knowing that these signability issues exist? Of course ineffectiveness and even worse an injury can set things back further for Crow, especially knowing that he left the offer on the table like he did. Clearly Matusz made out better, and is on track to be a starter for the Orioles in 2010 or 2011.

Crow will be pitching for the Fort Worth Cats in 2009. (Mizzou Athletic Media Relations)

In the end, I give credit to all the teams able to sign those first rounders. Kudos to the Pirates and Reds, going the extra effort and spending the money to pump more young talent into their system. The same thing goes to the Royals and Giants, who both had outstanding albeit expensive drafts. As an O’s fan I enjoyed Baltimore’s draft as well, spending to sign over 70% of its 50 picks this year. If there’s any way that big market teams will be beat, it’s through young talent. However in regards to how long they’ll be able to retain the talent during their six years of control, that’s another story, especially for Boras clients. Mark Teixiera was on a mission to go year-to-year, and it will pay off for him in the end. Weiters and Alvarez, the same thing. The teams could employ the strategy the Rangers used, which is to trade the players once they express no interest to sign long-term, and that never hurts in the process (especially for Matt Harrison, who threw eight shutout innings last night against the Rays.)

There is clearly a shift to get younger in Major League Baseball today. Ask the Angels, they have four key free agents this winter (Teixeira included), and according to Ken Rosenthal, aren’t expected to sign any of them. Assuming they’re wise and offer arbitration to each of them, they could be compensated very nicely in the draft next year. But until then, we’ll have to wait it out until then. The season’s almost over, and then the exciting Winter side of baseball begins. And then a few more months, and we’re drafting again. Just when that summer cookout begins, be sure not to say hold the (Jonathan) Mayo.

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

A busy day indeed in the MLB world, and I want to run down my thoughts on everything that happened today. Yes, we are also a week away from the July 31st trading deadline…

• Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals (finally) agreed to a two year/16MM deal with (their lone All-Star) Christian Guzman. He’s leading the team in hits, with a solid .310 average. He’s not the stolen base threat that he was when we came up with the Twins, but he’s still a solid bat in an otherwise weak lineup. The shortstop market this winter is very soft, so this deal isn’t too expensive or long term for the Nationals. Bowden should look at extending other players however, like third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, in my opinion.
• In more Nationals news, the Diamondbacks acquired closer Jon Rauch for minor league outfielder Emilio Bonifacio. Considering the fact that closers are a hot topic right now (see what the Orioles are asking for George Sherrill), Bowden should have got more for their closer, who’s under control modestly until 2010. Luis Ayala’s value just shot up, and that sound you just heard? That was the sound of the large contract hopes for Brandon Lyon this winter just crashing.
• The Astros acquired Randy Wolf from the Padres for minor league pitcher Chad Reineke. Again I don’t get this move on the Astros’ behalf. Granted they’re built to “win", but that’s hardly happening now. Wolf will eat innings, something that Runelvys Hernandez isn’t doing. However the Astros are only taking on more salary here. Ed Wade already sold the farm last winter, he doesn’t have anything else left to move.
• Lastly, on Sportscenter this evening, there was talk about the Yankees going after Jarrod Washburn. Washburn does eat innings, and out of Safeco however he might get lit up, especially in the tough AL East. And since the new regime took place in Seattle, they’ve been asking for the moon when dealing each of their players (just ask the Twins what they asked for Adrian Beltre.) I’m not sure personally what they could expect. Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes, I highly doubt it (Kennedy is only two years from being drafted in the Amateur Draft in 2006, he’ll be good in due course.) I heard Kei Igawa’s name being mentioned today. I like this move, and I DO think that Igawa needs to get out of New York. He does have two years and 10+MM left on his four deal contract, however if he pitches well in Safeco, it would look wise on the M’s behalf.