Late Innings

So the Marlins acquired Hayden Penn today (I honestly thought this was an April Fools’ joke when I first saw it.) It was essentially a swap of players who are out of options who probably wouldn’t pass through waivers. Some of the moves that the Marlins are making confuse me. It started last night with them releasing Dallas McPherson. Tossing the political barb aside from the piece ("the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News"), the main point here is that Emilio Bonifacio is the third baseman.

I agree with many that they should have moved Dan Uggla to third a month ago (and installed Bonifacio at second) if they were playing for defense, but this move essentially leaves them in the same situation that the L.A. Angels have, which is no power at the hot corner. They moved Jorge Cantu to first, and also acquired Ross Gload today from the Royals (a big head-shaking move.) Wow.

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I’m glad the Orioles at least got something for Penn, whom I think will make out well in the National League. I understand that the term “top prospect” has been floated around in regards to Penn. Keep in mind that this is the Sid Thrift Orioles. Penn at least landed on Prospect Top 100 lists across the country, but he wasn’t the pitching prospect that Brian Matusz or Chris Tillman is. John Sickels regards Penn high however, when asked the question if he sees another John Maine developing in Penn:

I can see that, yes, though the parallel is inexact as I think their styles of pitching are rather different and the things that have held Penn back are different than the things that held Maine back.

When Penn first came up in 2005, he was fed to the wolves as a 20 year old. He started out well, and was very good for the first month or so, then fell apart. 2006 was a disaster, and he hasn’t been in the majors after that. With the Marlins he’ll at least make the roster.

I’m looking today at all the pitchers that are being rushed into rotations across the country. We have Trevor Chahill and Brett Anderson in Oakland, James McDonald in Los Angeles, Jordan Zimmerman and Shairon Martis in Washington, and Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond in Toronto. Had it not been for the rotation depth in Atlanta, they probably would have had Tommy Hanson in their rotation as well. Oh, and Rick Porcello made the Tigers’ rotation as well (Detroit doesn’t like their talent sitting around apparently, with their 2008 draft pick Ryan Perry making the bullpen.)

I saw what rushing a prospect can do to a young arm in Penn. Hopefully the same fate would fell these young arms as well. In regards to the infielder that the Orioles got back from Florida, I like Robert Andino, who fits into Andy MacPhail’s shortstop mold (all glove, bonus points hit.) He could potentially be a good long-term fit for the club, since they’ll only have Cesar Izturis through 2010. Now hopefully he won’t become the next Luis Hernandez.

Bill Madden of NY Daily News brought up a nasty topic for debate today:

The rumblings already have started. With three years to go in the basic agreement, baseball’s owners are once again sounding the flashpoint “c” word - as in salary cap. But this past week, events in Oakland and Miami - where a new stadium plan for the A’s was pronounced dead and one for the Marlins once again put on life support - may leave the owners no choice but to revisit another ominous “c” word: contraction.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer fired back with a assuaging rebuttal:

Look, the A’s and the Marlins both have serious ballpark/revenue woes. No question about it, and Madden does a good job enumerating those woes. But it’s a massive leap from “needing” a new ballpark to the c-word. For one thing, both the A’s and the Marlins have, in recent years, been competitive. We’re not talking about the St. Louis Browns here. We’re talking about one franchise that won 93 games three seasons ago and another that won 84 games just last year. I mean, seriously: these are the two teams that might disappear?

And Craig Calcaterra put the icing on the cake this afternoon:

Well, I think he’s right again here. But even if those obstacles were hurdled, wouldn’t it make more sense for the owners to sit around a table and figure out how to help ailing franchises rather than kill them? My assumption is that the Marlins’ and A’s owners would demand something akin to the market price + hassle charge in order to give up their franchises. I’m also assuming that, since Bud has cultivated a very chummy ownership group, they’d get at least that much. So we’re talking in the hundreds of millions here.

I remember the last time we had the contraction debate, and it was a decade ago. The teams thrown up were the Twins and the Expos. And naturally of course, everyone then had their own mock contraction drafts. That is with the first pick in the draft, teams were salivating over taking Vladimir Guerrero. If we’d contract the Marlins and the A’s, that talent would have to be divvied up both at the big club (e.g. Hanley Ramirez) and the minors (e.g. Trevor Chahill.)

I find it odd why Madden chose these two teams. The Marlins were above .500 last year, and the A’s have been perennially contending under a tight budget with Billy Beane. Besides, the A’s have been gearing themselves into contention, having signed Orlando Cabrera (at a small 4MM) this afternoon.

If baseball needs anything, contrary to what Madden believes, it’s that it needs more teams. And I’m referring to the major markets. New York could use another team, or hell two or three. Granted the Steinbrenners will fight this to the bone however. And since they’re the only party that doles out the major contracts, the players union would naturally be in similar disagreement. Any ways this brings us to our current stalemate.

I’ve seen this tactic used a good deal, and I’ll attempt to employ it here. It’s the infamous “Player A", “Player B” trick. Using 2008 stats, take a guess on who these two pitchers are:

• Player A: 7 W, 8 L, 133.2 IP, 5.45 K/9, 5.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
• Player B: 8 W, 10 L, 180.0 IP, 4.75 K/9, 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

If you guessed Mark Hendrickson as Player A and Daniel Cabrera as Player B, you are clearly correct. From looking at the stats above, both pitchers had similar 2008 campaigns. Cabrera’s strikeouts were down last year, but so were his losses (he lost 18 games in 2007.)

I’m not saying Hendrickson (a York, PA native like myself) is an improvement by any means, however he’ll help mitigate the loss of the innings that Cabrera ate. Both pitchers provided negative value for their teams (each costing their teams about 1.5 wins), however Cabrera was paid 2.8MM, Hendrickson 1.5MM. It was clear to see why Andy MacPhail pulled the plug on Cabrera (a ~10MM loss from last year.) He only regressed further in 2008 (as evidenced by his 5.61 FIP, wow.)

Long story short, Baltimore needs pitching, and Hendrickson provides essentially the same value as Cabrera, however at 1.5MM he’ll cost at least 1MM less than Cabrera (the smallest pay the Orioles could have gave him in 2009 was 2.5MM, according to the labor contract.) Still, Hendrickson alone won’t solve their pitching woes. I like Braden Looper, and I think a three year deal would be beneficial for his services. The same thing goes with Kensin Kawakami (apparently the O’s have an offer out for him), however anything over 10MM a year is a huge risk.

I know Baltimore fans are anxious and are wanting to see Andy MacPhail make some more moves. I’m glad that he’s staying the course. He inherited a hell of a mess in 2007. It took the O’s years to get into the mess, it’ll take them years to get out of it.

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

In regards to the Rays and their success, a good portion of it has to be attributed to their young GM Andrew Friedman. However one of the senior advisers to Friedman is Gerry Hunsicker, the former Astros GM. Given the success that the team has now, Hunsicker will be a hot commodity this winter with teams searching for new GMs. One possibility that was brought up was having Hunsicker head back to Texas and serve as an assistant to the young Jon Daniels of the Rangers. As John Sickels pointed out, the team did win 79 games this year, however they have a few areas that need addressed.

At the end of April, the Rangers were 10-18 and looked lost. Everyone was expecting that their manager Ron Washington would be fired at that point. He could still be, especially knowing that Nolan Ryan wants to change this team, however the team did play much better after April, getting back to .500 and flirting with it the rest of the way. Had the team played better in April, they could have been a .500 team in 2008.

In either case, as Sickels pointed out the Rangers have some areas to address. These include:

• Addressing holes at third base
• Addressing weaknesses in their pitching
• Solving the catching/first base “log jam”

Hank Blalock was hot in September and his 6.2MM option for 2009 should be picked up. However as to being a long term option, it’s yet to be known. They have great depth around with David Murphy, Chris Davis, and an excellent farm system. The team however needs starting pitching. Scott Feldman came on at the end of the season, but Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood aren’t optimal long-term answers. And we can’t forget that the team will be doling out 80MM over the next six years to Michael Young, a move which will definitely put a damper on the team’s finances (thankfully they were able to lock up Ian Kinsler cheaply last year for 22MM.)

In either case, getting to the point of this post, the Rangers have a surplus at catching right now. They have four catchers who could be regular starters on any major league team: Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. Since the team is in a rebuilding phase still, they should be starting a platoon of Teagarden and Ramirez (who doesn’t need to be traded anymore by the way.) Both players have the power potential, and Teagarden hit very well at the end of the season to earn a starting role (Ramirez still has to do this.) These two also have the least amount of service time amongst their peers, so it’s wise to hold onto each. In regards to the other two, the following trades would be wise from both sides:

• Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. As I wrote earlier today, Jason Varitek isn’t hitting this postseason and I think his days of starting are now outnumbered, though I once expected that he’d resign with the club this winter for 10MM. Saltalamacchia is a player that Theo Epstein likes, and he’s cheap, under team-control and is talented. He was the crown jewel of the Mark Teixeira trade back in the Summer of 2007. The Red Sox have the young pitching and infield prospects needed to pry him from Daniels and the Rangers.
• Laird to the Marlins. There was a post up on MLB.com this weekend about how the Rockies were looking to trade Dan Uggla and Scott Olsen for Yorvit Torrealba and a prospect. Yikes. I know that both players are arbitration eligible, but Torrealba is a free agent next winter, and wouldn’t be much cheaper than not paying Uggla and Olsen. Laird makes more sense. He’s a plus hitter and a plus defender, and is the most experienced catcher on the Rangers. The Marlins, like the Red Sox, have the young talent that Daniels craves. I don’t see them coughing up Chris Volstad, however the arbitration-eligible Jorge Cantu would make sense at third, given the fact that Dallas MacPherson (and his 40 home runs from last season) reside in Triple-A.

If Kevin Millar refers to (Yankee reliever) Edwar Ramirez as “good hittin’", I’m curious as to what other AL hitters are saying about Justin Verlander. I’m looking foolish for putting him as a lock to win 20 games this year (as are many people), but with his stuff I’m confused why he isn’t pitching better. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tries to delve further into an analysis of it, but in the long run, one of the primary barometers of a pitcher is his velocity, and Verlander’s velocity is not down this year. Any ways injury concerns can be dismissed because of it, and there was a stretch from May to July where Verlander was as good as he was his first two years in the majors. He’s got exceptional stuff, and I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but his season is simply indicative of the Tigers’ in general.

Speaking of ESPN, I was watching Baseball Tonight this past weekend and the hosts started to prattle off a list of intriguing two-start pitchers for fantasy baseball. I was albeit drunk at this time, however I need someone to fill out my patchwork rotation in one of my leagues (the two-start pitchers that RotoWorld suggested were people that I could obviously never find on a waiver wire.) I remembered Ricky Nolassco’s name mentioned as him making two starts on the road this week, one in San Francisco and one in Arizona, and they recommended him as a pick. Taking their advice for the sake of things, I plugged Nolassco into my rotation and was rewarded with a nifty two-hitter. I know I rift on ESPN from time to time, that is with their affinity towards the Red Sox (e.g. The Nation!), but their fantasy guys saved my ass. They get my thanks for one week.

• I wanted to chime in on the Greg Maddux trade to the Dodgers, something which broke on ESPN Monday night. I read through Paul DePodesta’s blog about how the Padres are seeking players in return for the Professor, instead of cash assistance. Any ways going through the comments in the bottom, one fan asked if the Dodgers would get compensation if Maddux walked. DePodesta for the most part said “no", since the Dodgers would have to offer Maddux arbitration in the offseason. And as DePodesta responded, Maddux has accepted their offer before (the last thing the Dodgers would need is another one year, 10MM deal with Maddux for ‘09.)
• My friend sent me an interesting read about the Chinese and baseball in the Olympics (not the Chi-coms!) Any ways in regards to the Matt LaPorta injury, it only leads me to wonder if MLB will further scale back on the players that it sends to the Olympics. This incident is interesting, especially from Mark Shapiro and the Indians’ take, since they gave up a pretty penny to acquire LaPorta from the Brewers in July.

• Lastly to close on the Orioles, they made some roster moves. Closer George Sherrill is on the DL (which doesn’t surpise me, considering how worked he’s been.) They also moved Garrett Olsen and Dennis Sarfate out of the rotation. Sarfate has stuff that’s just as good as Verlander’s. He’s at times unhittable, however he walks about six men per nine innings, which is not good. Until that improves, Sarfate’s career as a starter is on hold. Olsen on the other hand might be over-worked himself. A couple starts ago he pitched a shutout into the ninth inning. That was against the Mariners nonetheless, however Major League teams are hitting him hard. Time out will do both pitchers good. Young pitching is good for a team, but is something you can’t rely on all season long (ask the Yankees this year.)

  In regards to what they do in the offseason, I was thinking, that is about their payroll. I expect it to hover around 70MM, and that will include 10MM off the books with Jay Payton leaving, and Chad Bradford recently traded. Before they consider signing Mark Teixiera, they’ll need to sign their own players in house. Sherrill will surely want a raise from the 900K he earned in 2008, and Nick Markakis‘ salary is expected to increase ten-fold once he hits arbitration. Thankfully for the team, Jeremy Guthrie can still be kept at league minimum for another year.

I wanted to put up some thoughts about Johan Santana tonight, as well as addresss the mailbag.

The Unheralded Ace

I’m currently watching ESPN right now, and as surprising as ever the Red Sox are on. Seriously, out of all the major league teams, why can’t they show some other teams? The Cubs and upstart Orioles are playing now, but I’m relegated to watch the Nation. They were on over the weekend on FOX for me, and they were on Monday night as well (preempting a great Brewers game where Ben Sheets was pitching a gem.)

I’m not sure why ESPN has so much love for the Red Sox, however there are other teams equally worthy of attention. For instance, there are FOUR TEAMS IN THE AL EAST OVER .500. Any ways, enough of that rant. I was watching the unofficial flagship station for the Red Sox on Monday, and they brought up the grand slam that Mets’ ace Johan Santana served up, albeit to Felix Hernandez, the first hit by an AL pitcher in 37 years.

Of course the Mets fans are worrying about their ace. They coughed up four players for him in February, and then signed him to the seven year deal for 150MM. His stats through 16 starts, 7-6 with a 2.93 ERA. He has 95K and only 28BB in 107.2 innings, a terrific 4:1 K/BB ratio. He also went over seven innings in ten of his starts. However Mets fans are for some reason disgusted. Now if he had three more wins or so, they’d be quiet, but this isn’t the case.

My opinion for Mets fans, sit down and be quiet. You have the best pitcher in the world, and he’s doing everything that they expected. However the team is under .500, but only four games out of first in the NL East. For Santana to be effective, he needs more run support (even Jeremy Guthrie would be disgusted with the support he’s getting.) He also needs more help from his bullpen, who like to blow his leads. And his defense clearly let him down (NOTE: he only gave up one earned run on Monday, and yes he coughed up the granny to King Felix.) When the rest of the pitching wears down in the NL East in September, and the Mets begin their push for the pennant, Mets fans will be as glad as hell they have the ace come playoff time.

Mets fans have what most teams don’t, a legitimate staff ace. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

The Late Innings Mailbag

I get mail from time to time, and if it’s baseball-related I’ll respond. I got a great email today from Forest T. in Minneapolis this afternoon (oddly enough, he’s a Brewers fan.) He sent me a great video today on (Marlins’ first round pick) Kyle Skipworth, minutes after he signed with the club today over lunch (it might have been the one posted on MLBTR today, I’m not sure.)

As I responded to him, his email only confirmed my belief in Skipworth. I think the Marlins made an outstanding move in the draft. Granted they could have took a big bat like Justin Smoak (the Rangers did), Skipworth was the best hitting catcher in the draft. Granted he’s raw, but he could be big and advance quickly. I said that he could be the best catcher that the Marlins had since Charles Johnson during their initial World Series run. It never hurts to draft an offensive-minded catcher (see Baltimore and Matt Weiters), who could easily become a great MLB regular, switching positions as his career goes on. Skipworth was a clear sleeper in the draft, and was one of the many outstanding top 15 picks that I’m excited to see in a few years.

By the way, email me any thoughts or comments about baseball. If it’s a good email, I’ll comment about it next time I do a mailbag.

Scott Boras could potentially lose more sleep now, especially knowing that the Florida Marlins locked up one of their prime stars in Hanley Ramirez to a six year/70MM contract. I know that the Marlins seldom hand out long term contracts (their last one was gave out a few years ago to Carlos Delgado.) However the Marlins would be foolish to pass up a contract this beneficial to them.

Jeremy Hermida congrates Hanley on his new contract. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

As many have speculated, Hanley could have easily netted a 200MM contract in 2012, the time he would have become a free agent. The player that he’s most comparable to, Alfonso Soriano, got 136MM from the Cubs two years ago. Granted he’s not the glove wizard that some of his shortstop counterparts are (like Soriano, he’ll most likely be in the outfield in a couple years), however Ramirez can easily hit, one of the game’s most solid #3 hitters today.

If I knew more about the details of the contract, I could better pose this argument. However for the sake of argument, assume that the three arbitration years of the contract are worth 30MM, leaving 40MM for the other three free agency years. Given the fact that Ryan Howard got 10MM for his first year of arbitration, Ramirez if he played his cards correctly could have netted himself upwards of 45MM.

The Marlins are possibly one of the most-stingiest teams in all of baseball, however this was a deal that even they couldn’t resist. Once the deal expires, Ramirez will be just hitting 30 years old, meaning that he’ll be in line for another huge contract. The one thing that works in their favor, baring the no-trade clauses, is that the Marlins could easily trade Ramirez in five years if they so wanted to. His value should be sky high, and his salary isn’t that much of an impediment, especially in comparison to similar players.

In going with recent trends, a player’s performance during his arbitration years is essentially on par with his free agency years (the player might peak during his free agency years, however he is still in his prime.) The salary jump a player gets from his arbitration years however can be anything from 30% to 50%. The Marlins did the same thing that the Tigers did with the Miguel Cabrera extension, which is pay the price for the player’s arbitration years. They’re getting more “bang for their buck” by doing this.

Now, this deal is clearly a step in the right direction for the Marlins. The team is 21-14 and on top of the NL East. In all fairness, I would have never predicted this. In fact, I was wrong about all of the following teams:

• St. Louis (22-15)
• Oakland (22-15)
• Baltimore (18-18)

All four of the teams are playing better than expected baseball. The Cardinals have stellar starting pitching, and the same goes with Oakland (recently #1 on ESPN’s power rankings.) Baltimore is playing tough ball as well, and the Marlins are also competitive. Now do I expect this to keep up for all of these teams, it’s tough to tell. All four teams have great starting pitching. Oakland is getting great return on the Dan Haren trade, with Greg Smith and Dana Eveland leading the way. St. Louis is getting quality starts from Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer. Toss out Steve Trachsel, and Baltimore has four starters who have ERAs under 4.30. And the Marlins are also getting great pitching. Still going back to the original question, come back to me in July. If all four of these teams are still playing good ball, I’ll eat more crow.

Prison time did Scott Olsen some good apparently.

Frank Thomas has landed a gig as an Oakland Athletic, another young starter made his Major League Debut, and Bill Bavasi made a move that put the Mariners back another ten years. Granted I went into a deep discussion over the Krivsky firing, however there were plenty of interesting stories that occurred throughout the week. Time to recap this odd week in baseball:

Frank the Tank Time in Oakland

Late this week, Billy Beane did the inevitable, which is reacquire Frank Thomas for the A’s’ playoff push. The team is playing great baseball (I’ll touch on this later), however the offense is going through a power outage right now. At the time of the signing, the team only hit ten homers (that was one more than Chase Utley has all by himself at the time.) Thomas will help. And at a prorated portion portion of the league minimum salary (400K), this signing is a steal. It’s no wonder why the move only took a couple of days to do.

In regards to which DH will better suit the A’s, it’s tough to question between Thomas and the All Time Home Run King (that is Barry Bonds.) Bonds is decorated and has the numbers, however so does Thomas. Plus he doesn’t carry the baggage that Bonds has. Thomas can still hit; he’s a career .300 hitter in the 500 home run club. Some of the other hitters on the Oakland staff don’t have as nice of a resume as Thomas has. The team dumped Dan Johnson, has to tolerate the monster strikeout totals from Jack Cust and Travis Buck, and currently has Mike Sweeney handling the DH duties. This move is exactly what Oakland needed. For fans keeping score at home, put a star by Beane’s name.

Young Starters Have Their Day

I usually highlight when a young pitcher makes his debut here, and there are two young arms worth talking about currently. Oakland has Greg Smith, whose currently on a roll right now. During Spring Training, he was matching fellow pitching sensation Gio Gonzalez pitch per pitch. In four starts so far, he’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He’ll most likely be the victim to be sent back to Triple-A once Rich Harden returns.

Justin Masterson was dominating Double-A for Boston, pitching to a tune of a 0.94 ERA. He was sent back to Portland yesterday, however he made a stunning debut in place of Josh Beckett:

Unheralded Aces

There have been a series of pitchers who have been delivering quality starts all season long for their teams, but have had little run support to show for their efforts. Felix Hernandez should be 5-0, however he only has two wins due to bullpen implosions and poor support. He has a stellar 1.67 ERA. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was matched up against King Felix twice, and both games were pitching duels between the two starters. He’s currently winless, though has also been pitching well all season (he went into the eighth in his last start.)

One last starter who seems to be on the short end is Matt Cain of the Giants. He’s also winless on the season, though was unfortunate to be involved in a traditional 1-0 game with the Giants in his last start out. Whatever run support that the Giants muster tends to usually go to Barry Zito, and that isn’t working too well.

Zannen Desu Ne

The Mariners could be in an interesting situation now. They are sitting on a heap of young talent, which they don’t exactly want any part of with the team’s current makeup. A good reason behind this is the team’s General Manager Bill Bavasi, who in recent years dealt talent like Rafeal Soriano and Adam Jones. He also signed his share of bad free agents. Granted I am eating a healthy plate of crow now since Carlos Silva is pitching well, however there have been many bad contracts that have damaged the team and have left fans scratching their heads.

You can add this latest one to the contract heap. Yesterday afternoon, the team extended catcher Kenji Johjima by another three years. Granted Johjima isn’t hitting now, but he does have some power. Then again so does Jeff Clement (the team’s #1 prospect according to Baseball America.) If the deal was worth the total value of his first contract (15MM), it still would have been a bad move. However with this new deal, Johjima is getting 24MM over the timespan. Ouch (on an aside, the headline translates to how unfortunate.)

The Boys of Summer Are Back

Last night was the opening night in the Atlantic League, if anyone is interested. Some of the best non-affiliated professional baseball can be seen in these games.

Hot and Cold Starts

We’re one month into the season, and there have been some teams that have surprised and got off to good starts. There have also been some disappointments. Baltimore, Oakland and Florida are all playing well and are high in their divisional standings. Baltimore has got its share of timely hitting, Oakland has received sensational pitching, and the Marlins hitters know how to mash. Will these three teams be as good as they are come May, it’s hard to tell.

It’s hard to call the Texas Rangers a disappointment, however at 8-16, they’re not doing anything right. Granted they have a deep farm system (fourth best in baseball), but they have no pitching. It’s a shame that Ron Washington will most likely take the blame for this disaster, he’s one of the nicest managers in all of baseball.

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves