Late Innings

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

Do you read FanGraphs?…

I thought this was an interesting story to come up today, an interesting Opening Day indeed. Seattle’s first round draft picks from the last three drafts, that is Brandon Morrow (2006), Phillippe Aumont (2007) and Joshua Fields (2008), could all find themselves in the M’s bullpen by the end of the season. Granted I know that Morrow and Aumont were drafted as starters, but Bill Bavasi and the team’s scouting department grabbed Fields in hope of him being their future closer. They’re all outstanding arms, don’t get me wrong, however it’s interesting that these three prospects ended up in the same situation. Morrow is the team’s closer going forward (due to a diabetes issue), and these two complementing arms could constitute an excellent bullpen in Seattle. Another unexpected consequence of the Bavasi administration…

Updating Sabathia

I’m watching the O’s/Yanks currently, and Baltimore has plated three runs against the Yankees’ 161MM man C.C. Sabathia. Jeremy Guthrie looks very sharp, and apparently has shaken off his rough Spring. It’s a shame that Cliff Lee couldn’t do the same thing himself today…

As of this afternoon, the Indians designated one time prospect (or “third baseman of the future") Andy Marte for assignment in leiu of a minor trade with the Rays. I’m curious to see who will pick him up. As I’ve stated previously, the Indians have been burned after giving up on former top prospects prematurely. Two names that come to my mind include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

If it’s my guess, I could see Baltimore taking a flier on Marte, like they’ve done with former prospects Guthrie, Felix Pie and Rich Hill. The main issue however is finding space for him on the 40 man roster. They were able to slip Scott Moore through waivers, however I’m not sure who else could be moved off the roster for Marte. Alfredo Simon perhaps? How about a Luke Scott trade? In either case, Marte would be an interesting pickup by Andy MacPhail, with top third base prospect Billy Rowell not being ready anytime soon.

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.

Obviously I’m not sleeping either… I touched on this earlier, but the Mets officially acquired J.J. Putz from the Mariners as part of a three team deal. They signed free agent Francisco Rodriguez a day earlier for 37MM over three years. Per Rosenthal:

Under terms of the deal, the Mets get Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and reliever Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners receive reliever Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez, first baseman Mike Carp, and minor leaguers Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas and Ezequiel Carrera from the Mets. They also get Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and minor leaguers. The Indians get reliever Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from Seattle.

I wonder if this counts as Jack Zduriencik’s first trade, but in either case I like it for the Mariners. I’ll wait for more info on the prospects (BA does a good roundup of this), but I’ve always been fond of Gutierrez. The Mariners also get a slew of pieces in this deal which can be plugged anywhere. From the Mets’ prospective, this deal plays out good for them as well. The last two innings are going to be solid for them next season, and they can still bridge the gap by picking up another arm on the market (e.g. Juan Cruz.) I’ve always been fond of Reed as well, and I think last year he finally started to live up to the high prospect tag that he had years ago. The Indians most-likely made this move to shed some salary, though Gutierrez isn’t arbitration eligible yet. They also get solid bullpen depth with Smith, who should be setting up for Kerry Wood (about to sign a two year, 20MM deal.)

In either case, a solid move on all fronts. Give Zduriencik some credit for selling high on Putz, especially with the market for closers being as saturated as it is.

Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves last season. (Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is best known for wanting to go year-to-year during his three arbitration years, which start in 2009. He’s also made it known that he wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. If going by today’s numbers, the highest total years for a closer went to B.J. Ryan (five years.) Total compensation? Both Ryan and Joe Nathan received 47MM in their deals. Highest average salary? That’s held by Mariano Rivera, who makes on average of 15MM per year on his contract signed before last season.

Papelbon presumably wants to exceed the numbers given above on all fronts, however the one thing to note: the demand for closers fell from last summer just as sharply as the demand for oil did. Tell this to Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels free agent closer who saved 62 games last year. He wanted 75MM over five years, and he’ll now get 37MM over three from the Mets. That’s less than the 37.5MM that Brad Lidge got from the Phillies earlier this year.

Kerry Wood is also expected to sign a modest deal with the Indians as well, only for two years. So it’s clear that the market is down for closers now, and if you were Jonathan Papelbon, what would you do? If Theo Epstein came to you with a four year deal for 28MM, would you accept? Keep in mind a four year deal would buy out his three arbitration years…

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

It was a relatively slow news day, however there were a few points that I wanted to discuss here:

• Rockies reliever Luis Vizcaino was charged with a D.U.I. and is being held with a 500 USD bail. MLB D.U.I.s aren’t a big deal, however they’re fun to write about. Joba Chamberlain had one last week, B.J. Upton had one in the past as well. These things come and go by quickly, unless there’s a manslaughter charge pressing. Still on an aside, you’d think that the Rockies would rather now have LaTroy Hawkins instead of “The Viz", especially based on how well Hawkins pitched for the Astros.
• RotoProfessor gives his Top 10 Free Agent busts from 2007. I can’t agree anymore with him on his #1 pick, as I’ve been saying for some time now.
• According to the Denver Post, the Rockies want to move Garret Atkins for pitching, based on the fact that he’s due another raise in arbitration this season, and the other fact that Ian Stewart has emerged as a solid infield option. Atkins’ road numbers should scare you by the way.
• Jack Zduriencik, the new GM of the M’s, is starting his search for the new team’s manager. Is Ned Yost the logical answer? Also, the Onion makes a great case as to why Jim Riggleman should be brought back to manage the team.
• According to MLBTR, a Mark Teahen/Franklin Gutierrez trade between the Royals and Indians is false rumors. I spoke highly about both players in the Spring, and even though I correctly predicted that Teahen’s power had returned, his other numbers (OPS in particular) have regressed.

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

If Kevin Millar refers to (Yankee reliever) Edwar Ramirez as “good hittin’", I’m curious as to what other AL hitters are saying about Justin Verlander. I’m looking foolish for putting him as a lock to win 20 games this year (as are many people), but with his stuff I’m confused why he isn’t pitching better. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tries to delve further into an analysis of it, but in the long run, one of the primary barometers of a pitcher is his velocity, and Verlander’s velocity is not down this year. Any ways injury concerns can be dismissed because of it, and there was a stretch from May to July where Verlander was as good as he was his first two years in the majors. He’s got exceptional stuff, and I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but his season is simply indicative of the Tigers’ in general.

Speaking of ESPN, I was watching Baseball Tonight this past weekend and the hosts started to prattle off a list of intriguing two-start pitchers for fantasy baseball. I was albeit drunk at this time, however I need someone to fill out my patchwork rotation in one of my leagues (the two-start pitchers that RotoWorld suggested were people that I could obviously never find on a waiver wire.) I remembered Ricky Nolassco’s name mentioned as him making two starts on the road this week, one in San Francisco and one in Arizona, and they recommended him as a pick. Taking their advice for the sake of things, I plugged Nolassco into my rotation and was rewarded with a nifty two-hitter. I know I rift on ESPN from time to time, that is with their affinity towards the Red Sox (e.g. The Nation!), but their fantasy guys saved my ass. They get my thanks for one week.

• I wanted to chime in on the Greg Maddux trade to the Dodgers, something which broke on ESPN Monday night. I read through Paul DePodesta’s blog about how the Padres are seeking players in return for the Professor, instead of cash assistance. Any ways going through the comments in the bottom, one fan asked if the Dodgers would get compensation if Maddux walked. DePodesta for the most part said “no", since the Dodgers would have to offer Maddux arbitration in the offseason. And as DePodesta responded, Maddux has accepted their offer before (the last thing the Dodgers would need is another one year, 10MM deal with Maddux for ‘09.)
• My friend sent me an interesting read about the Chinese and baseball in the Olympics (not the Chi-coms!) Any ways in regards to the Matt LaPorta injury, it only leads me to wonder if MLB will further scale back on the players that it sends to the Olympics. This incident is interesting, especially from Mark Shapiro and the Indians’ take, since they gave up a pretty penny to acquire LaPorta from the Brewers in July.

• Lastly to close on the Orioles, they made some roster moves. Closer George Sherrill is on the DL (which doesn’t surpise me, considering how worked he’s been.) They also moved Garrett Olsen and Dennis Sarfate out of the rotation. Sarfate has stuff that’s just as good as Verlander’s. He’s at times unhittable, however he walks about six men per nine innings, which is not good. Until that improves, Sarfate’s career as a starter is on hold. Olsen on the other hand might be over-worked himself. A couple starts ago he pitched a shutout into the ninth inning. That was against the Mariners nonetheless, however Major League teams are hitting him hard. Time out will do both pitchers good. Young pitching is good for a team, but is something you can’t rely on all season long (ask the Yankees this year.)

  In regards to what they do in the offseason, I was thinking, that is about their payroll. I expect it to hover around 70MM, and that will include 10MM off the books with Jay Payton leaving, and Chad Bradford recently traded. Before they consider signing Mark Teixiera, they’ll need to sign their own players in house. Sherrill will surely want a raise from the 900K he earned in 2008, and Nick Markakis‘ salary is expected to increase ten-fold once he hits arbitration. Thankfully for the team, Jeremy Guthrie can still be kept at league minimum for another year.

The other team making noise before next Thursday’s trading deadline was the Cleveland Indians. This morning, the Indians acquired RHP Jon Meloan and catcher Carlos Santana for third baseman/outfielder Casey Blake. And a few minutes ago, the Indians acquired starter Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for relief pitching prospect Luis Perdoma.

In regards to what we saw from the Indians so far this July, this is what Mark Shapiro does best. Shapiro tried to sign C.C. Sabathia, however in the end he did the right thing and dealt him to the Brewers for a strong set of prospects. The team had little use for Blake, and it was doubtful that they’d sign him in the offseason after he hit free agency (they’ll save 3MM as well by making this trade.) And Reyes? Yeah like most people, I’m sold on this young pitcher. He looked stellar in the 2006 World Series, and as many people said he simply needs a change of scenery. He’s got great stuff, and going to a no-pressure environment like Cleveland, he could contribue immediately.

On behalf of the Dodgers, this was a move they needed to make. They didn’t cough up their main talent, but like the Yankees they need offense, badly. Andruw Jones isn’t cutting it, and injuries are mounting to their other regulars (like Juan Pierre and Rafeal Furcal.) Blake DeWitt hasn’t had an extra-base hit in a while, and his OPS is dropping like a rock. Andy LaRoche should have been groomed into the position (which he may as well take after Blake leaves in the offseason.) However the Dodgers, like any team in the (weak) NL West are within striking distance of the pennant.

Still in the end, Shapiro and the Indians had a stellar month. The reason they’re not winning is easy, they are plagued with injuries. 2009 could be great for the tribe. I’m still a believer in Travis Hafner, and they’ll have Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona to head their rotation. However in the end they might have made the best move by not letting go of Andy Marte. Shapiro has been burned late by past prospects which have left Cleveland and performed elsewhere (Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie to name a pair.) However if Marte performs well, they’ll be set at the hot corner for a few years now. And there’s no reason as to why I wouldn’t think he’d do so. In a good Tribe lineup, he can hit 20 HR and play stellar defense at third.

Blake makes 6.1MM in 2008. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

A few hours after I wrote something on what I heard from Ken Rosenthal, the Indians and Brewers finally came to an agreemment for C.C. Sabathia. The details will be known later, however Matt LaPorta is all but certain to be included in this trade. As I said earlier, I love this trade, for it benefits both clubs. Mark Shapiro and the Indians had to make this move, especially while the Brewers’ offer was still on the table. The Indians’ playoff chances are now slim, given the team’s injuries and the insurgence of the White Sox and Twins in their division. Granted they could have held onto Sabathia for the remaining half of the season, however if he could help the team land a player like LaPorta, a player looking like a can’t miss player once he hits the majors (20 HR at Double-A.) The funny thing is that Shapiro could give Sabathia a strong offer and bring back the pitcher as a free agent come fall.

The Brewers are playing teriffic baseball and likewise had to make this move. The team hasn’t had a playoff berth in over 25 years, and their window of winning is closing rapidly. Ben Sheets is a free agent after the season, as is Eric Gagne. And Prince Fielder is expected to be dealt, given the fact that he’s about to hit his first year of salary arbitration (as we all remember and to beat the deadest of horses, Ryan Howard was awarded 10MM last season by his panel of arbitrators.)

Like the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee is stocked in the farm with coveted prospects, especially at Double-A. To acquire a pitcher like Sabathia, LaPorta was needed. However their rotation is now scary. Sabathia and Sheets make up a terrifying 1-2 punch. The team also has the steady Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, who pitched a great game Saturday night. And they also have Yovanni Gollardo, a dominant pitcher when healthy. I know it’s early, but I’m picking the Brewers as my team in the Central, a team that should now make the playoffs. Any ways after this move, the ball is now in Jim Hendry’s court. The Cubs have suspect pitching, as do the Cardnials. I’m curious to see the moves that these two teams will make before the trading deadline. I’m not saying that the Brewers are now a perfect team (they really need bullpen help also), but they have the starting pitching and offense that could help them go on some sort of meteoric tear. The Brewers could be this year’s version of the Colorado Rockies.

According to mlb.com, we’re a good 25 days away from the July 31st trading deadline. It wasn’t as exciting as it was in years past, when the deadline was at midnight instead of at 4pm in the afternoon, however prominent players have been traded in recent years. It’s not that players can’t be traded after the deadline, however if a player is traded in July, he won’t have to pass through waivers.

There are a good number of teams in the playoff hunt, and I’m curious to see what they’ll acquire. Will the A’s acquire another Kevin Appier for their playoff push? What will the Red Sox and Yankees do this month? I’m not sure, but I wanted to chime in on a series of topics.

The Sabathia Sweepstakes

A few months ago, I expected the Indians and Tigers to rebound and push for the AL Central title. The Tigers are doing so, however the Indians are last in their division. The main reason why is because of their lack of offense. Grady Siezmore is “en fuego", however Victor Martinez (albeit injured) is homer-less. Travis Haffner has been a disappointment.

Since the Twins and White Sox have been in command of recent, Mark Shapiro should probably do the best thing and raise the white flag on the season, and trade away the team’s staff ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia, 6-8 3.38 ERA with a MLB-leading 123 strikeouts, has been on a tear of late. Many teams are coveting the potential free agent, who should command a contract in excess of 100MM come this winter. The Rays, Phillies and Dodgers could all use him, however the Brewers have apparently made the best offer for the ace. Granted if the Brewers were to acquire Sabathia, they’ll most likely be coughing up Matt LaPorta, their 2007 first round draft pick.

I was watching the Red Sox/Yankees game on FOX yesterday (it was all that was on), and they went to a cut to Ken Rosenthal, who expects this deal to go down sometime before the All Star break (this week.) I see the Brewers winning the sweepstakes, and the deal would definitely benefit both parties. The Indians need hitting and LaPorta would be ideal. The Brewers who are hot now, would definitely use Sabathia. This is the deal that I would make. The Brewers haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and their window of winning is closing very quickly (Prince Fielder could be traded in the winter?) The two teams have a history of making successful trades (e.g. Richie Sexon in his “good” years), and this one would be a deal that I would approve. Besides, the Brewers could then get the two compensatory picks after Sabathia leaves in the winter (he’ll all-but-sure be a Type A free agent.)

A C.C. trade would make sense for both teams (AP photo c/o CNN.)

Spelling Relief

I was watching the Mets/Phillies game last night, and watched the Phillies’ MLB-best bullpen implode and let the Mets come back (Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez were the culprits.) Was that the reason why they then gave Brad Lidge a three year/37.5MM extension this morning? (Great move for both parties by the way, especially on the club for only getting him to sign for three years.)

The main arm that’s been rumored is the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes. The Rockies have depth with Manny Corpas pitching well, and Taylor Buchholz being un-hittable, so Fuentes is expendable. He’s got closer experience, and is a free agent come fall. In other words he’ll command a deal around 5MM per season. Still a number of teams are coveting him, and they’re all the AL East contenders; the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays are the interesting choice, and would obviously make a move to prevent either of the two teams from acquiring the top setup man.

The two arms that I saw the Rays ready to give up for Fuentes are either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. Personally that’s too much for Fuentes, Davis in particular. A comparable trade is what the Red Sox gave up last July for Eric Gagne. The Rays should give up a starter with some MLB experience, someone much like the Kason Gabbard, who went to Texas in the Gagne trade. Gabbard is fighting injuries, and at times has been effective, however Theo Epstein was able to persuade Jon Daniels to take Gabbard instead of someone like Jon Lester or even Clay Buchholz. The Rays should be showcasing Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell, or even Edwin Jackson. Jackson would make the most sense, since David Price is all but ready to step in and contribute for the Rays. Yes the team is winning now, but trading raw talent like Davis or Hellickson is foolish. It’s something that Bill Bavasi would do.

Mahay, Mahay!

Back in December, I listed my five personal free agent signings of the offseason. Two of them were Royals’ signings. Jose Guillen, at times maligned by the press, is now one of the final write-in choices for the AL All Star team. He was brought in to revitalize their offense, which he is doing. When Guillen hits, the Royals mash. When Guillen doesn’t hit, then the Royals get, um, no-hit. The other player I liked was their signing of Ron Mahay, 2 years for 8MM, whom I speculated that the Royals could spin off for someone else this year. The Yankess wanted him last winter, and could easily want him again come the trading deadline. Mahay is clearly doing his job by the way (4-0, 2.03 ERA.)

Closing Rumors

Some final food for thought:

• The Orioles are a .500 team, and have plenty of chips to trade. Granted there’s their All Star George Sherill, who essentially has pitched the same number of innings now as he did last year, when he was a left-handed specialist. Baltimore also has Brian Roberts (like Guillen a write-in choice) available. Aubrey Huff is also having a fine year and could go for a good price. There are other names as well that could move.
• The A’s are easily buyers now instead of sellers, and will most likely be holding onto Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. I could see Chad Gaudin (relegated to the pen) being moved for a good bat.
• The Dodgers and Orioles need shortstops. Outside of Felipe Lopez, Jack Wilson and David Eckstein, there isn’t much available.
• Matt Holliday, an NL All Star, may or may not be available. If he is moved expect the bounty to be high. The same goes with the Braves and Mark Teixeira. The Braves are still in contention however.
• If the Yankees trade for help, expect Ian Kennedy to go. If the Red Sox make a trade, they’ll have to cough up Justin Masterson. Any team will ask for these two players, since both Joba Chamberlain and Buchholz have been deemed untouchable by their respective teams (and rightfully so.)