Late Innings

Only I would waste a post tying a minor injury to (former Giant prospect, now Baltimore Oriole) Brad Hennessey to a popular Eminem song a few years back. In all fairness, Brad easily has the best last name in baseball. Much cooler than (another former Oriole great) Scott “Clan” MacGregor.

Admittedly, the past few nights I haven’t gotten much sleep. I’m not sure if these are correlated, however I read an interesting piece today on Baseball America, asking whether Pablo Sandoval should catch? Catcher is Sandoval’s natural position, and many people (at least in the fantasy baseball realm) would love to see Sandoval catch. Then again they’re set at the moment with their 95 RBI-man Bengie Molina, and of course have the #5 pick in last year’s Amateur Draft Buster Posey all but ready to go in two years.

Sandoval is one of the two young Giants that could end up making some serious fantasy noise in 2009 (the other being speedy second baseman Emmanuel Burriss.) Sandoval got most of his action last year at first base (putting up a nice .345/.357/.490 line), though he did catch eleven games behind the plate. In regards to where Bruce Bochy plays him in 2009, it’s yet to be seen. He’s a nice bat, don’t get me wrong, however he might not even make the team out of Spring Training next season. Currently on the team’s depth chart, Travis Ishikawa is the leading candidate to start at first on Opening Day. I’m also a fan of Josh Phelps as well, who I think will surprise many (he was blocked by Albert Pujols last year in St. Louis.)

In either case, Brian Sabean brought in some outstanding pitching (and also has some great arms in the minors about to make some noise as well.) He assembled a great bullpen. Now how about bringing in some offense to support the starters? The Giants need corner infielders, they’ve been needing them for the past couple years. I like Joe Crede, and at a 6MM contract for one year, I’d do it. I’d also offer 10MM to Adam Dunn and see if he bites (given Pat Burrell’s contract today, he might possibly do so.) In either case, I really like what the Giants are doing so far with their off-season. They desperately need to bring in some bats though; you can’t run an offense on Aaron Rowand alone.

I’ll go back to bed now.

Obviously, by reading the title you can tell that I like the Giants’ new signing of Randy Johnson. He’ll slot in nicely in the number three spot in the rotation, and will serve a number of purposes. First and foremost, he’ll deliver at least 175 above-average innings. He’ll add fans to the stands, and most importantly he’ll immediately weaken their division rivals the Diamondbacks.

Johnson’s one year deal is guaranteed 8MM in 2009, with incentives that could push the total compensation up to 12.5MM. It’s a great move by Brian Sabean, and Johnson will clearly bolster their rotation. And as the great RotoProfessor points out, the Giants suddenly have a solid five man rotation from top to bottom. He sees a rebound from Jonathan Sanchez in 2009 (me too, but that WHIP needs to come down.) I honestly expect this signing to benefit Barry Zito more if anything. Zito is not an ace (albeit being paid like one), and with Zito now starting the fourth game of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out of the gate strong in 2009 (I’ll save him for my sleeper list.)

Any ways to summarize things, the Giants have a great rotation, and I like their bullpen also (they signed Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt earlier.) They clearly need offense, and the signings of Edgar Renteria and Josh Phelps will help. If Sabean came to me however and asked me for two players to sign to patch up everything, I would open up the checkbook and bring in the following two pieces:

1. Joe Crede
2. Adam Dunn

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

I think I’m going to start a new section here, predicting the possible sleepers for the 2009 season. One such sleeper pick that I love is the Giants’ new first baseman Josh Phelps. Phelps had an amazing year for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate, .291/31/97. He has a career OPS of .815, and most importantly gets on base. The Cardinals unfortunately couldn’t use him (due to some guy named “Pujols” who just hit .357), and as I pointed out on a previous post, Phelps reminds me of Ryan Ludwick, who came out of nowhere to have incredible success for the Cardinals in 2008.

I give credit to Brian Sabean; this is the kind of moves that the Giants need to make. They don’t need to dole out long-term burdensome contracts to players (e.g. Barry Zito, though I like the Aaron Rowand deal.) The Giants desperately needed offense in 2008 (Tim Linececum was in three 1-0 games in 2008), and Phelps will clearly deliver it. They were admittedly horrible at the corners in 2008, and Phelps can expect 550 at bats in 2009. Phelps “figured it out” in the minors in 2008, and I see him getting his career back on track. Phelps is a very quiet sleeper for the 2009 season, an excellent fantasy pickup, and I can see the following from him in 2009: .275/.375/.470, with 25 HR and 90 RBI.

Some other links that support this claim:

• BTBS
• RotoAuthority
• MLBTR
• SB

Some other random links for today:

• Brad Penny’s 2009 option will most-likely be declined by the Dodgers, and A.J. Burnett is now a free agent. I see Burnett getting 65MM over four years now (I originally bet 53MM back in August, before the great fall that Burnett had this past year.)
• We have a new President apparently.

After yesterday’s 4-6 tear, Giants’ catching prospect Buster Posey is “en fuego” in the AFL. He’s currently hitting .515. He was the Giants’ first round pick (#5 overall) in the Amateur Draft this year, and would have been #1 overall by the Rays, had it not been for his supposed demands of a 12MM contract.

In regards to other hot prospects in the AFL, Orioles hurler Brian Matusz (drafted #4 overall) is also dominant. Still if either of these two players make it to the majors next season, I expect it to be Posey. I doubt that Baltimore would rush Matusz to the majors, though if he makes the strong case that might change. Still for Posey to reach the majors, the Giants will need to move Bengie Molina. Molina and his 95 RBI from last year might be a good match for the Mets.

Breaking: Tatis Re-signed

The Mets just re-signed Fernando Tatis for 1.7MM in 2009. Good move, and this all but for the most part eliminates the idea of them signing free agent Raul Ibanez. Tatis hit 11 homers last year, and either projects as a full-time outfielder, or will be featured against lefties. Still he won’t hit 34 homers again, and I thought he wasn’t arbitration eligible until 2010… (Correction, Tatis was a free agent and filed today. I thought he was still under team control.)

Jayson Nix and the White Sox

The White Sox signed Jayson Nix to a major league deal for 2009. He was supposedly an option for the Rockies at second base entering last year, however remained stuck in Triple-A and only hit .303/17/51 with a .964 OPS. Like Alexi Ramirez and Carlos Quinten, this is another excellent, under-the-radar move by Kenny Williams. I’ve always been high on both the Nix brothers (him and outfielder Lance Nix.)

There has been rumors all weekend about the Brewers being after Giants second baseman Ray Durham, and they finally acquired him this afternoon, shipping to the Giants pitcher Steve Hammond and speedy Single-A outfielder Darren Ford. The Brewers were also supposed to get pitcher Jack Taschner from the Giants, but I guess that fell through.

I can understand why they’d acquire someone like C.C. Sabathia, but I don’t understand why they would give up that much for Durham. Those two prospects aren’t high caliber players, however they’re taking on some salary when acquiring Durham for the remaining three months of the season. The Brewers should have gave up Ford tops, kind of how the Orioles gave up Mike McCoy, a generic Triple-A second baseman, for Juan Castro, a generic borderline Major League shortstop. In either case, neither of these two trades should have any impact on their teams whatsoever. Ford might be an option, but he’ll be entering a crowded outfield in San Francisco in 2010.

Any ways kudos to the Giants for at least trimming some fat here.

Frank Thomas has landed a gig as an Oakland Athletic, another young starter made his Major League Debut, and Bill Bavasi made a move that put the Mariners back another ten years. Granted I went into a deep discussion over the Krivsky firing, however there were plenty of interesting stories that occurred throughout the week. Time to recap this odd week in baseball:

Frank the Tank Time in Oakland

Late this week, Billy Beane did the inevitable, which is reacquire Frank Thomas for the A’s’ playoff push. The team is playing great baseball (I’ll touch on this later), however the offense is going through a power outage right now. At the time of the signing, the team only hit ten homers (that was one more than Chase Utley has all by himself at the time.) Thomas will help. And at a prorated portion portion of the league minimum salary (400K), this signing is a steal. It’s no wonder why the move only took a couple of days to do.

In regards to which DH will better suit the A’s, it’s tough to question between Thomas and the All Time Home Run King (that is Barry Bonds.) Bonds is decorated and has the numbers, however so does Thomas. Plus he doesn’t carry the baggage that Bonds has. Thomas can still hit; he’s a career .300 hitter in the 500 home run club. Some of the other hitters on the Oakland staff don’t have as nice of a resume as Thomas has. The team dumped Dan Johnson, has to tolerate the monster strikeout totals from Jack Cust and Travis Buck, and currently has Mike Sweeney handling the DH duties. This move is exactly what Oakland needed. For fans keeping score at home, put a star by Beane’s name.

Young Starters Have Their Day

I usually highlight when a young pitcher makes his debut here, and there are two young arms worth talking about currently. Oakland has Greg Smith, whose currently on a roll right now. During Spring Training, he was matching fellow pitching sensation Gio Gonzalez pitch per pitch. In four starts so far, he’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He’ll most likely be the victim to be sent back to Triple-A once Rich Harden returns.

Justin Masterson was dominating Double-A for Boston, pitching to a tune of a 0.94 ERA. He was sent back to Portland yesterday, however he made a stunning debut in place of Josh Beckett:

Unheralded Aces

There have been a series of pitchers who have been delivering quality starts all season long for their teams, but have had little run support to show for their efforts. Felix Hernandez should be 5-0, however he only has two wins due to bullpen implosions and poor support. He has a stellar 1.67 ERA. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was matched up against King Felix twice, and both games were pitching duels between the two starters. He’s currently winless, though has also been pitching well all season (he went into the eighth in his last start.)

One last starter who seems to be on the short end is Matt Cain of the Giants. He’s also winless on the season, though was unfortunate to be involved in a traditional 1-0 game with the Giants in his last start out. Whatever run support that the Giants muster tends to usually go to Barry Zito, and that isn’t working too well.

Zannen Desu Ne

The Mariners could be in an interesting situation now. They are sitting on a heap of young talent, which they don’t exactly want any part of with the team’s current makeup. A good reason behind this is the team’s General Manager Bill Bavasi, who in recent years dealt talent like Rafeal Soriano and Adam Jones. He also signed his share of bad free agents. Granted I am eating a healthy plate of crow now since Carlos Silva is pitching well, however there have been many bad contracts that have damaged the team and have left fans scratching their heads.

You can add this latest one to the contract heap. Yesterday afternoon, the team extended catcher Kenji Johjima by another three years. Granted Johjima isn’t hitting now, but he does have some power. Then again so does Jeff Clement (the team’s #1 prospect according to Baseball America.) If the deal was worth the total value of his first contract (15MM), it still would have been a bad move. However with this new deal, Johjima is getting 24MM over the timespan. Ouch (on an aside, the headline translates to how unfortunate.)

The Boys of Summer Are Back

Last night was the opening night in the Atlantic League, if anyone is interested. Some of the best non-affiliated professional baseball can be seen in these games.

Hot and Cold Starts

We’re one month into the season, and there have been some teams that have surprised and got off to good starts. There have also been some disappointments. Baltimore, Oakland and Florida are all playing well and are high in their divisional standings. Baltimore has got its share of timely hitting, Oakland has received sensational pitching, and the Marlins hitters know how to mash. Will these three teams be as good as they are come May, it’s hard to tell.

It’s hard to call the Texas Rangers a disappointment, however at 8-16, they’re not doing anything right. Granted they have a deep farm system (fourth best in baseball), but they have no pitching. It’s a shame that Ron Washington will most likely take the blame for this disaster, he’s one of the nicest managers in all of baseball.

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves

Obviously I’m not Jim Hendry, and there are some serious thoughts that come through my mind. The first thing is why didn’t the Cubs sign Aaron Rowand instead? For the most part, he’ll be paid the same as Kosuke Fukodome (albeit an extra contract year), is younger, plays solid defense and most importantly is a proven outfielder.

In the past week, two players came over from Japan immediately receiving 10MM per year (especially since there were no posting fees involved.) Fukodome, while putting up solid numbers in Japan, is expected to carry that over to Chicago as well. The one trend that I’ve noticed from hitters coming over from Japan is the incredible difficulty in adjusting to Major League pitching. The only player who broke this rule was Ichiro in his rookie season. However every other player, even Hideki Matsui, didn’t live up to standards initially (Matsui was expected to hit 40HRs.)

So with that said even though he’ll be hitting in a very solid lineup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fukodome hit .275/12/60/10 in 2008. Don’t get me wrong, those are solid numbers, especialy from the #2 hole (where he’s expected to hit.) However are those numbers worth 12MM per year? I know many GMs balked initially when hearing of Rowand’s demand for a 6yr/85MM contract before the post-season, however if I was a Cubs fan, I’d much rather have Rowand patrolling their outfield in 2007. His bat will be there, as well as the highlight reel catches. Still I couldn’t necessarily complain; Fukodome is an upgrade from last year’s outfield.

In regards to Rowand’s new team, I’m sure that Giants fans will be happy with the projected .295/18/90/5 seasons to come.