Late Innings

The mixed-bag writers at RotoWorld are channeling the spirit of Rush Limbaugh, in referring to Diamondbacks’ manager Bob Melvin play of the talented, and young Justin Upton:

Upton is likely to remain just about worthless if this is how manager Bob Melvin wants to use him. It’s not just sitting him every other day, but it’s also the decision to bat him eighth, guaranteeing that he sees a heavy dosage of breaking balls while hitting in front of the pitcher. It’s like Melvin wants to see him fail.

Seriously. Even after a few beers, I’m still not buying this claim. Upton is talented no less, however he’s as green as a Barack Obama energy policy.

Royals Sign Juan Cruz

Hopefully this is the last post that I write about the Royals, until they win their division this September of course. I really like the Royals, and they have an interesting core of talent. If the talent goes through a great coalescence however, this team is deadly. Still they have a few flaws, but I still see them winning 85 games in 2009. And in the AL Central, that’s all that’s really needed to do so.

Arizona gets the Royals second round draft pick in this year’s draft, but not their protected first rounder. Cruz gets 6MM, with incentives that could push it up to 8.5MM. Still the sad thing about this deal is that Cruz will get less than Kyle Farnsworth. That’s what you get for being a Type A free agent.

I work during the day, and saw the news that Jon Garland signed a 6.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. I wasn’t able to chime in at the moment about it, thankfully BTBS did the work I wanted to do:

One year deal believed to be in the $6-8 million range. So let’s summarize:

Garland: turns down the Angels offer of arb which would’ve likely netted him an increase from last year’s $12 million salary, has to settle for a one year deal worth maybe half that much (though there is likely an option). Results: FAIL

D’backs: Could have spent about the same amount of money on Randy Johnson, who was worth almost two more wins than Garland last year and a local favorite. Results: FAIL

Angels: Lose a pitcher with a FIP projected somewhere in the 4.4 area who they would have to overpay for and get a draft pick out of it. Results: SUCCESS

I started to then think why didn’t the Diamondbacks offer the same deal to Randy Johnson, a pitcher worth two more wins than Garland in 2008. However Dave Cameron and the brains behind Fan Graphs again beat me to it:

Deciding that you want Jon Garland instead of Randy Johnson is a disastrous decision. Yes, Johnson is old, but he’s still an excellent major league pitcher. Garland is a #5 starter whose best skill is not getting hurt.

I know this sounds mean, but Garland is a lousy pitcher. He’s HR and deep-fly prone, gives up his share of base runners, and has low strikeout rates. The only reason he won 14 games last year was because he was part of a rotation on a team that won 100 games. He was well over-hyped since he was pitching on winning teams, and thus as a bi-product won games. As a result, he was also given a large three year deal (worth 29MM) back in 2005. This inflated his salary, and as a result, pushed up his demands this off-season. Garland was this year’s Carlos Silva, and thankfully he didn’t receive Silva money.

To paraphrase Cameron, yeah Garland really screwed up the Diamondbacks’ off season. A few months back, I read a RotoWorld piece (either by Aaron or Matt) projecting where Garland would end this winter. The author projected Garland landing with the Orioles on a five year deal for 60MM. Thankfully this didn’t happen, and I’m ever so relieved.

The Olson/Cedeno for Heilman Trade

The other news today came from the Cubs acquiring Aaron Heilman from the Mariners for infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson. The intriguing piece of this deal is Olson. I’ve seen him pitch a number of times, and he did look over-matched the past few seasons in the majors. He did pitch well in the minors however, and he might do well in the friendly confines of Safeco. Maybe this game that Olson pitched against Seattle late last year played a factor in this move…

In either case, the Cubs had Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Cedeno all out of options this Winter. So far they’ve dealt two of them, and have only acquired a pitcher that Mets fans can vouch for being a disaster. In my opinion, that’s selling low on a great amount of talent.

Obviously, by reading the title you can tell that I like the Giants’ new signing of Randy Johnson. He’ll slot in nicely in the number three spot in the rotation, and will serve a number of purposes. First and foremost, he’ll deliver at least 175 above-average innings. He’ll add fans to the stands, and most importantly he’ll immediately weaken their division rivals the Diamondbacks.

Johnson’s one year deal is guaranteed 8MM in 2009, with incentives that could push the total compensation up to 12.5MM. It’s a great move by Brian Sabean, and Johnson will clearly bolster their rotation. And as the great RotoProfessor points out, the Giants suddenly have a solid five man rotation from top to bottom. He sees a rebound from Jonathan Sanchez in 2009 (me too, but that WHIP needs to come down.) I honestly expect this signing to benefit Barry Zito more if anything. Zito is not an ace (albeit being paid like one), and with Zito now starting the fourth game of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out of the gate strong in 2009 (I’ll save him for my sleeper list.)

Any ways to summarize things, the Giants have a great rotation, and I like their bullpen also (they signed Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt earlier.) They clearly need offense, and the signings of Edgar Renteria and Josh Phelps will help. If Sabean came to me however and asked me for two players to sign to patch up everything, I would open up the checkbook and bring in the following two pieces:

1. Joe Crede
2. Adam Dunn

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

A few things built up since the last time I wrote here. I’ll iterate through these “unordered list” style, of course giving my inexpert analysis of each move.

• The Diamondbacks locked up co-ace Dan Haren this evening with a five-year contract extension. I’m not exactly sure what Josh Byrnes and co. did in Arizona, but they for the most part pulled a “Johan Santana” and tore up Haren’s existing contract. His new deal will pay him roughly 58MM over the length of the contract, assuming the Diamondbacks suck up that 15.5MM club option for 2013. If Haren continues to pitch as well as he has, this will probably be exercised.

  Haren’s good, and he’s finally getting paid market value. Billy Beane extended him for very cheaply, then he broke out last year (starting an All-Star game) and was sold high to the Diamondbacks for a cache of players. He’ll be 33 when his contract is over, so this is a great move for the Diamondbacks, considering the fact that the risk is lower here, and that Haren is currently 12-5 with a 2.75 ERA.

  I’ve been a fan of Haren for years now. I remember when he was with the Cardinals and Baseball Weekly named him their minor league pitcher of the year. Maybe that was Bud Smith, I’m not sure, but it seems just right after that he was immediately shipped to the A’s for Mark Mulder. Any ways Haren didn’t come as cheaply as other recent young pitcher signings, however for an ace this is albeit a good deal. Now the real question is how in the world are they going to lock up Brandon Webb?

• Joba Chamberlain is hurt now (was watching it last night on ESPN), as is Billy Wagner. Any ways Ian Kennedy gets the starts, and I expect him to stick this time around. He hasn’t been in the minors too long, but he’s one of the better young finesse pitchers that I’ve seen. He’s bound to succeed as a #3 starter.
• Jamie Moyer impresses me. The same thing goes for Fernando Tatis. He’s now a regular, and after two more bombs he’s up to nine. He probably won’t hit 34 again, but it’s nice to see his resurgence. By the way, Rich Harden got hit hard in five plus tonight. He still struck out eight in the effort.
• In Baltimore, Adam “no relation to Pacman” Jones goes on the DL. After fouling that ball off his foot on Sunday, he apparently has some sort of fracture. He should finish the season on the DL with a .279/7/50 line. Not a bad chip to come for Erik Bedard. Speaking of the lopsided trade, George Sherrill should be shut down or used sparingly now. After his three walk effort last night (and that he’s at his seasonal innings total now), “Full Pack” is out of gas.
• The Rockies finally acquired a front line starter, picking up Livan Hernandez who was dumped by the Twins earlier this week. They’ll swallow the remaining 1.5MM that he’s owed on his one year, 5MM deal he signed in the spring. By the way there’s a little sarcasm here, he’ll be ineffective.
• By the way, Gio Gonzalez gets a start for the A’s this week. I’ve been hyping him since last year, and am curious to see how he’ll fare in his debut.

A busy day indeed in the MLB world, and I want to run down my thoughts on everything that happened today. Yes, we are also a week away from the July 31st trading deadline…

• Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals (finally) agreed to a two year/16MM deal with (their lone All-Star) Christian Guzman. He’s leading the team in hits, with a solid .310 average. He’s not the stolen base threat that he was when we came up with the Twins, but he’s still a solid bat in an otherwise weak lineup. The shortstop market this winter is very soft, so this deal isn’t too expensive or long term for the Nationals. Bowden should look at extending other players however, like third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, in my opinion.
• In more Nationals news, the Diamondbacks acquired closer Jon Rauch for minor league outfielder Emilio Bonifacio. Considering the fact that closers are a hot topic right now (see what the Orioles are asking for George Sherrill), Bowden should have got more for their closer, who’s under control modestly until 2010. Luis Ayala’s value just shot up, and that sound you just heard? That was the sound of the large contract hopes for Brandon Lyon this winter just crashing.
• The Astros acquired Randy Wolf from the Padres for minor league pitcher Chad Reineke. Again I don’t get this move on the Astros’ behalf. Granted they’re built to “win", but that’s hardly happening now. Wolf will eat innings, something that Runelvys Hernandez isn’t doing. However the Astros are only taking on more salary here. Ed Wade already sold the farm last winter, he doesn’t have anything else left to move.
• Lastly, on Sportscenter this evening, there was talk about the Yankees going after Jarrod Washburn. Washburn does eat innings, and out of Safeco however he might get lit up, especially in the tough AL East. And since the new regime took place in Seattle, they’ve been asking for the moon when dealing each of their players (just ask the Twins what they asked for Adrian Beltre.) I’m not sure personally what they could expect. Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes, I highly doubt it (Kennedy is only two years from being drafted in the Amateur Draft in 2006, he’ll be good in due course.) I heard Kei Igawa’s name being mentioned today. I like this move, and I DO think that Igawa needs to get out of New York. He does have two years and 10+MM left on his four deal contract, however if he pitches well in Safeco, it would look wise on the M’s behalf.

Baltimore “clobbers” the Rangers today 8-1, and moves to a 6-1 season record. People are finally starting to recognize this team. Time to start printing those playoff tickets.

Some other random Orioles news and tidbits:

• Dave Trembley is considering going with a 13-man bullpen. This is an interesting idea. Though in the last three games the starters have thrown 7.0, 6.0 and 6.0 innings, before that they struggled to make it though the fifth. The best way to preserve that stellar bullpen of theirs is to not overwork their staff, something that plagued the team early May last year, when we saw Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Chris Ray and Danys Baez seemingly every other day. Of course this takes one player off the bench, however most of the players that they have now are versatile enough to play many different positions.
• Trembley is also sitting Adam Jones when good pitchers are throwing. He did so on Sunday when the Mariners trotted out Felix Hernandez. It’s a good approach; that is the best way to assimilate Jones to Major League pitching is to show him average, below-average pitching. He went 1-4 today against the AAA arms that the Rangers threw out (Jason Jennings looked horrible, and had control problems galore.)

The Chris Young Extension

In other news, the Arizona Diamondbacks extended center fielder Chris Young (not the Padres’ pitcher) through 2014 with a five year, 28MM extension. Troy Tulowitzki’s 30MM he received a few months ago is still the bar setter for total contract worth for players with one year of experience, however if Arizona extends Young’s contract through his first two years of free agency, the total value of the contract will be around 38MM. In my eyes that’s a bargain, especially for the club. If they could now do this for Justin Upton they’d be in great shape.

Most people see Young as a perennial 30-30 guy. He looks more like an Andruw Jones to me, low average, high power, great defensive outfielder. When Jones came up, he was a great base stealer. His power is still there, though his speed has clearly diminished. Young had an interesting rookie season last year (the .230 average was tough, but the 32 home runs were nice, especially the nine lead-off ones.) He’s off to a great start again this year (so far four homers), and if he can keep his average above .270, he’ll be a superstar.

I should have saved the Jeremy Guthrie signing for this post, but finally some moves are being made in the hot stove with the player movements. I’ll keep these brief and witty.

• Juan Cruz inked a 1.95MM deal with the Diamondbacks in 2008. He’s a middle reliever who appears in sixty games a year (the Cubs didn’t forsee this when he came up.) Could he be the next 5MM middle reliever?… (Dannys Baez doesn’t count, since Baltimore gave him the ridiculous money with hopes of him closing.)
• Marlon Byrd also inked a 1.8MM deal today, to be the Rangers’ fourth outfielder. Way too much money for someone I don’t project to hit about .260 with little power.
• Claudio Vargas avoids arbitration and inks a 3.6MM deal with the Brewers. Way too much money again, and I don’t see him ever receiving that amount in an arbitration hearing. I don’t see any trade value for him either.
• Jason Jennings is about to ink a 4MM deal with the Rangers. I like this deal, that is any sensible deal for young starting pitching is good with me, even if they don’t pan out.

There were a series of moves done the past few days in regards to relief pitching, and I wanted to touch on each of those (as well as discuss the potential fantasy impact.)

• Brian Shouse gets 1yr/2MM from the Brewers: His numbers were very good in 2007: 1-1/3.02 in 73 games. Milwaukee has a very strong bullpen as it is, and Shouse is a good bridge between the starters and closer Eric Gagne. Another season like this and he’ll have a 4MM contract in 2009, like the rest of the high-tier middle relievers.
• Chad Cordero and 1yr/6.2MM from the Nationals: Cordero’s young (25) and figures to be traded soon, with the team still having him under control for another year. Even though he wore down in September in 2007, I expect Cordero to save 40 again this year with a stronger Nationals team. With his consistency, he should easily receive a contract if not better than Francisco Cordero’s 4yr/44MM deal with the Reds.
• Eddie Guardardo gets 1 yr/2MM from the Rangers: I love this deal for many reasons. One the contract is incentive-laden, so if Guardardo wants the money he’ll need to perform (there’s another 4MM on the line here.) I expect him to do this as well, considering the fact that he pitched very well last season down the stretch, fully recovering from injury. He’s the favorite to get the closer job in Texas, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saves 35 (remember the team doesn’t have to necessarily be a winner for the closer to rack up saves.)
• The Brandon Lyon Situation: Lyon finally made his niche in middle relief for the Diamondbacks. The team wants to give him an extension, however his agent is waiting for the 2008 season to conclude, for when he’s a free agent. The reason behind this is he could potentially end up closing games for the team in 2008, and hence receive closer money thereafter. Something reasonable like a 2yr/8MM extension (Ron Mahay money) should be accepted by Lyon, especially since he’s taking a big gamble that he’ll stay healthy and fend off pressure from Tony Pena.

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves

Going into last season, I honestly asked myself if Arizona could even contend in their division. I honestly expected either San Diego or Los Angeles to win the division. I questioned whether their young offense would produce or not. I also questioned whether the pitching, though veteran and experienced, would hold up after Brandon Webb. Needless to say, the team proved me wrong. They played so well that their manager Bob Melvin had his contract extended today through 2010.

With everything said, I easily expect them to win the NL West in 2008, as do most columnists. I expect their young core of Chris Young, Stehpen Drew, and Mark Reynolds to continue to improve. I also love their pitching. Though they recently traded away Jose Valverde to the Astros, they should have no problem developing a young closer from their deep hard-throwing bullpen. And their starting pitching should also be exciting to watch as well.

The best move that any team made this offseason was made by Arizona when they acquired Dan Haren from the Oakland A’s in midst of a seven-player swap. While this move will benefit Oakland three years from now, Arizona gets an immediate boost from the acquisition. Webb and Haren is the best 1-2 pitching punch in all of baseball now. I always liked Haren’s numbers: very high K/BB ratio, goes deep into games. Haren has been this consistent for years now, he just suddenly got some exposure after last season. And now having him pitch not only in the National League but behind Brandon Webb as the #2 starter only makes him better.

I see the Diamondbacks as the team to beat in the National League. Of course, that may all change if the Dodgers pull off a big move and acquire another front-line starter…