Late Innings

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.

And now a little humor for this evening… there was a bogus rumor which surfaced in the Seattle Times, which a reporter flew a rumor by a Cubs official. That is another bad contract swap… Carlos Silva for “Kosume (sic) Fukodome” as he put it. The officials quickly dismissed this (naturally), however like so many bad rumors today this one swiftly got some exposure. Me? I could see Kosuke Fukodome prosper in Seattle. He looks like he’s in dire need of a change of scenery, especially given how all it took was one prolonged slump which quickly got him in Lou Pinella’s “dog house” (which contains other players like Felix Pie, et al.)

A no-pressure environment like Seattle might be good for him, but I don’t think that the Cubs would want Silva, a pitcher who lost 15 games in 2008. The Mariners paid him 3MM per win last year, and given the Cubs stacked rotation, he would sure look stick out like a sore thumb (especially if they acquire Jake Peavy.) I’m not sure where this rumor was made up. Personally I think the reporter fabricated everything, in hope something sticks. I don’t blame him. When your team loses 100 games, you should try everything.

Bad Product Endorsement

In honor of this bogus trade rumor, I “sponsored” Carlos Silva today, that is by purchasing his page on baseball-reference.com. I’m not sure if this counts as buying traffic, but heck if Silva wins 21 or so games next year, I’m going to look like a genius. After all it happened for Esteban Loaiza. And this will also only happen if a volcano goes off in Detroit, and as we all know a volcano won’t go off in Detroit.

As your sponsor, I command you not to suck in 2009.

According to Josh Towers in the Union Tribune, a three-way trade framework is in place. At a minimum, the Cubs will get Jake Peavy, the Padres get Garrett Olsen, and the Orioles will get Felix Pie. All three teams are clearly happy, and this trade is just pending approval on the Cubs’ side (keep in mind an impending team sale.) I forget what I read, but apparently Kevin Towers wants this either done by Thursday, or Peavy will open 2009 as a Padre.

Regardless, I’ve expressed my interest in Pie before, and I think Olsen is a fair price for the gamble on his talents.

Before Thanksgiving, we heard rumors about a Third Team being involved with the Cubs and Padres in a blockbuster trade for Padres’ ace Jake Peavy. That mysterious team, at least according to Steve Gilbert of mlb.com, is the Orioles. I’ve been saying for some time now that if the Padres were to trade their ace, they’d want back MLB-ready pitching. The Cubs have some, but it’s not exactly what the Padres are expecting. Rich Hill’s stock has fallen dramatically, Sean Marshall doesn’t fit their bill, and of course there’s Jason Marquis, who has 9MM owed to him in the final year of his three-year contract signed two years ago.

The Padres have been coveting Oriole’s hurler Garrett Olsen, a soft-tosser who might be best moving to the weaker National League. He’s dominated at the minor league level, however is far too inconsistent in the majors. Granted the Orioles probably didn’t give him enough time to develop (likewise with John Maine), however if he alone could net you Felix Pie, then the move should be made. Andy MacPhail and the Orioles have been coveting Pie for sometime now. He was the Cubs top prospect in 2007, however likewise with many Cubs prospects of late (e.g. Don Veal), his stock as fallen. I honestly believed that he was about to be heading to Baltimore this past Spring with Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts (I read a incredibly-respectable source.) However that trade didn’t happen (and Gallagher is now a member of the A’s rotation.)

Long story short, if MacPhail pulls off this move and acquires Pie during the Winter Meetings in two weeks, I’ll be very happy. An outfield of Pie, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones could be incredible, especially with all three of them being 25 and under. Luke Scott could be part of a DH platoon, and Aubrey Huff could be the team’s first baseman. Granted I know that Baltimore would be moving some pitching for acquiring hitting, but this is a move that I would like. There are many people in Chicago who are saying that the team shouldn’t be giving up on Pie right now. Besides, given how slow the market has been going of late, the team might be able to snag a starter for cheap soon.

The Cubs have had a busy off-season so far. They have been speculated to be in the hunt for Randy Johnson (a good move if they pull that off), rumored to be trading for Mark Teahen (muy malo if they give up Felix Pie), and have been all over the place with pitching. On that note, this afternoon, they resigned one of their integral parts from the 2008 season, Ryan Dempster. He’ll get 52MM over four years.

Any ways I don’t despise this move, but it isn’t that bad. Simply put, the Cubs paid market price for Dempster. He won 17 games last year and had a very nice 2.96 ERA. Still there is growing disgust over this move. Roto Professor sums up the reactions best:

Maybe I’ll be proved wrong, but it’s an awful lot of money to be throwing at someone off one good season.

I agree with the sentiment. People thought he wasn’t even going to be in the rotation in 2008, however he was the #5 starter out of the gate. He pitched like an ace the rest of the way. Granted many people refer to this season as a “fluke", however he just didn’t get many opportunities. Dempster was always a solid starter with the Marlins, and I look at this season as him getting himself “back on track". He may win 60 games over the next four years, he may save 100 games. We don’t know…

Still consider this. The Cubs shelled out 10MM a year for Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. These moves clearly worked. They shelled out 12MM a year for Kosuke Fukodome, and that didn’t work. I know it’s an irrelevant analogy, but when the Cubs pay for pitching, it usually works out well for them. And it should be noted that Dempster, only being 32 right now, will be pitching in his prime throughout the duration of the contract.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

I watched the game last night (and had to listen to Buck Martinez, ugh), and in the end smiled. I’m proud of the Rays, proud of the fact that the American League team came from my favorite division, the AL East. I know that by not having the Nation and the Dodgers in the series, it’ll be a “ratings disaster” (to quote ESPN.) But I could care less, this will be a great series.

I wanted to comment on David Price. I think the sky’s the limit for him, and he’ll be to the American League next year what Tim Lincecum was to the National League this year. For a player who was drafted #1 overall last year to not be given an MLB contract, he progressed fairly quickly through the Rays’ system. Watching him save out the Rays’ ALCS made me think back to the 2006 series, when Adam Wainright was thrust into closing duties for the Cardinals against the Tigers. I also heard comparisons to how Francisco Rodriguez took the bull by the horns as well the last time the Angels were in the World Series.

Nonetheless, some fun facts about Price, there was a “what if” post on BP this weekend, asking what would have happened between one game in 2006 between the Tigers and the Royals, who essentially helped guarantee that Tampa Bay would get the #1 overall pick in 2007 (and choose Price.) Had the Royals gotten this pick, they would have presumably picked Price as well; pitchers like him are rare. Nothing against Mike Moustakas, whom I think will be fine (Sickels only gave him a A-), the Rays got the upper hand here. And to pour more salt in the wound between these two teams, Evan Longoria is looking like a better pick from the 2006 draft (drafted #3) than Luke Hovechar (overall #1, not that he won’t be a useful starter.) Now if only Tampa would have drafted better from the talented crop of players available in the 2005 draft (Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury were all drafted after Wade Townsend in the first round, a pitcher who probably won’t ever see the light of day. Then again, Chuck LaMar was running the franchise in 2005, and we all know what happened then.)

The Hendry Contract

The Cubs finally got things done today, even with sale of the organization looming, by giving Jim Hendry a four year extension today. Great move at it couldn’t have come any sooner. Now he can focus on resigning Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, which hopefully he can do soon.

Hendry assembled the best team in the National League last year (winning percentage-wise, sorry Phillies fans.) The team’s three-and-out postseason wasn’t his fault, though he should have gave in a little to Andy MacPhail’s demands for Brian Roberts. He would have gotten two years from Roberts (who doesn’t hit free agency until ‘09), and would have got a hitter who could have brought life into the lineup in October, something Alfonso Soriano fails to do each and every time out.

The Late Innings Mail Bag Segment

I’m not sure what was said on MASN this past week, but I got three seperate emails asking me about the Orioles and their chances for signing free agent Oliver Perez. I honestly haven’t heard any rumors about this, and wouldn’t be too mum about the O’s signing this pitcher. Granted he’s a Scott Boras client, but he’s coming off a down year. Could he get 16MM a year like many were speculating this past Spring? I doubt it.

Perez rebounded from a poor start to finish 10-7, 4.22 in 2008. (AP)

Back in August, I speculated that Perez would get 11MM-12MM this winter from the clubs. Of course now that Jake Peavy is available on the market, this changes everything (look what Erik Bedard, Johan Santana and Dan Haren did to the free agent starters, notably Kyle Lohse.) I could see Perez getting something more than the 41MM that Lohse got last month, but Boras would probably consider that selling low on his client. He might opt Perez to take a low term deal (two years or so) at 10MM a year to reestablish his value.

Personally I wouldn’t mind having a short-term deal on Perez, mainly since Baltimore has so much pitching coming up in the minors. Four years is too much, especially since Perez’s ERA would go up by a half run moving to the AL East. Four years of Jon Garland would be worse, much worse. And I think four years at 15MM per season for A.J. Burnett would be foolish. I know that Baltimore needs to bring in an arm to back Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, but an innings-eater like Braden Looper would be more ideal. According to Buster Olney, the O’s are prepared to go on a spending binge this Winter, and Burnett and Mark Teixeira (MD natives) are in their crosshairs. I would love to have Teixeira, and given his track record and health he would make sense. However at 20MM a year, that’s too large of a percentage of the budget to allocate to one player, even if he would place fans in the seats at Camden Yards.

More on the Mets and Royals

To close, there was a rumor which came up about a possible swap between these two clubs for Luis Castillo and Jose Guillen. Actually these two teams have been talking. Guillen has 24MM owed over the next two, Castillo 18MM over the next three. Both would address holes on each team as well, with the Mets needing outfield help, and the Royals looking to sign a middle infielder (they’re interested in Rafeal Furcal.)

If that trade occurred, I would like it on both sides. I know that everyone is considering each signing a “bad contract” (you might want to lump Juan Pierre into this discussion), but it’s not the player’s fault that they received the money they did (point the fingers at the clubs here), especially given the fact that their 2008 numbers were indicative of their career norms.

So… three and out. The Cubs are done, and the Dodgers are moving on. Again to beat the deadest of horses, I called the Dodgers the 2008 World Series champions back in March. I sounded insane back then, but in all fairness they’re currently the scariest team in the postseason. Any ways since my team was eliminated back in September, the shift of the content here has shifted towards hot stove talk. And there was some news last week about Daniel Cabrera (most of it good), and I wanted to delve further into this.

I mentioned Reed Johnson for this reason. Back in December, the Blue Jays tendered him a contract for 3.2MM. After they realized they had a surplus of outfielders (e.g. Shannon Stewart, Adam Lind, Travis Snider), they released him last Spring. The Cubs picked him up on a 1.3MM deal. His numbers: .303, 6, 50. He formed a very solid platoon with Jim Edmonds, who managed to hit 20 homers this year as part of the Cubs’ “two-headed monster.” Personally I’m a fan of Johnson. His 2006 numbers were outstanding, and I think the Jays gave up on him prematurely after an injury-riddled 2007 campaign.

Johnson should be a star in 2009, especially if Edmonds retires as many are suggesting. As I’ve been saying all along, he’s worthy of a full-time position and is capable of posting .315, 15, 75 numbers. The Cubs jumped on Johnson in a hurry and they were rewarded. So going back to the original question, who will be this 2009’s Reed Johnson?

The Cubs should be giving Johnson an increased role for 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

My vote is going towards Cabrera for this reason. Cabrera earned 2.9MM in 2008, while posting a 8-9, 5.25 record in 180 innings. He was solid in the first half, especially in April (4.14 ERA) and May (3.14 ERA.) He fell apart after that, but the potential is clearly here. His control fell apart however, and his strikeouts were way down; he averaged one strikeout per walk. Granted his work-load was heavy in 2007, and that might have contributed to this season, however many feel that Cabrera is best fit to be a middle-reliever.

My prediction: the O’s tender him a contract and then settle on a 3.5MM deal, avoiding arbitration. They could possibly release him in Spring Training, especially if the other starters that have look capable. Cabrera gives the Orioles much-needed innings out of the rotation, but the front office could supplement those innings by a well-placed free agency signing (like Braden Looper.)

I know I hyped Cabrera earlier this year as well. He’s a very talented pitcher, and is under team control until the end of the 2010 season. However until Cabrera can figure out how to improve his control, he won’t ever be the dominant starter that many people in Baltimore are hoping.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

I was watching some interesting pitching this week. The notable starter that came to my mind was Rich Harden, who made a nice debut in Chicago yesterday (5.2IP, 0ER, 10K.) Had the bullpen not blown the lead in the ninth for him, Harden would have gotten the win for the Cubs in his debut (the team ultimately came back in extra innings for a 8-7 win over the Giants.) I also saw Mark Mulder make his season debut this week against the Phillies. He looked sharp for the first batter he faced (freezing Jimmy Rollins on a 89mph pitch), however he then walked the next two hitters, and then walked back to the disabled list shortly after that.

This week we saw two pitchers make their season debuts for their teams. Each team invested heavilly in their respective pitcher as well, and still aren’t sure what they’re going to be getting. We all know the heapload of prospects that Walt Jocketty sent to Billy Beane in Oakland for Mulder (Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.) After Mulder hit free agency a couple of years ago, he chose to go back to St. Louis instead of accepting other offers, like from Cleveland. It’s safe to say that the results of the 14MM that he received from the Cardinals back in 2006 have been disappointing. His curve isn’t exactly the same beauty pitch that it was in 2003, and his fastball barely hits 90 anymore.

Harden yesterday looked solid. His fastball was in the low 90s, however the movement on his pitches made Giants hitters look foolish as they swung through the majority of his 10 strikeouts (then again they’re not the best of hitters. You would have thought that Mariano Rivera was on the mound throwing his cut-fastball.) In either case, as to what the Cubs should expect from Harden, the jury is still out. Is it safe to say that Sean Gallagher will accumulate more wins in the next five years than Harden? Yeah that’s possible (so far it’s Gallagher 1, Harden 0.)

Looking at the trades that Billy Beane has made in Oakland, he rarely ends up a loser in his deals. Does he know more on the pitchers than the other teams do? Not sure, however he’s taking good advantage of the “sell high” notion of when to move pitching, something Andy MacPhail did when he moved Erik Bedard to the Mariners. Still the one thing that I’ve been seeing is that teams are now starting to follow Beane’s stategy when it comes to starting pitching, which is to simply use each pitcher to their fullest.

There are a few starters that come to mind now, Brandon Webb in Arizona, Cole Hamels in Philadelphia and Jeremy Guthrie in Baltimore. These three hurlers are on pace to throw 240 innings. They’re not bad innings either, considering the fact that each starter has an ERA no worse than 3.50. However teams are starting to suck their pitchers dry, especially while they’re under control of the teams very cheaply (arbitration years in particular.) It’s to a pitcher’s advantage when they hit free agency however, since they’ll most likely receive a healthy contract. However, buyer beware for the new team, since these hurlers accumulated so many innings before they hit their prime years.

Am I suggesting that C.C. Sabathia is going to break down after he signs this offseason? I’m not sure, however he’s thrown so many innings himself, and looking back at workhorses who received large contracts (Kevin Brown in particular), they’re prime for a breakdown in media res of the contract. It’s an interesting strategy that Beane’s doing in Oakland. There are so many benefits for having the pitchers throw seven or eight innings instead of six. For one, there’s a lesser dependence on the bullpen needed. In today’s state, if a pitcher throws five or six innings, the manager will then turn over the reins to each of his specially-aligned bullpen chips. If the starter is looking sharp in the sixth, let him go that extra inning or two.

Before 2005 or so, Oakland had its “Big Three” running very well. Tim Hudson ate quality innings for the A’s, and was then spun to the Braves. He at times has been superb, and at times has looked worn down. Everyone knows the Mulder story, especially since he was a big-innings eater for the A’s. Barry Zito? When he hit free agency in 2006, Scott Boras sold him as a highly-durable starter. That claim is correct, since Zito threw at least 200 innings in all of his full seasons in Oakland. The first year of his 126MM contract with the Giants, he threw 196.2. Could the same fate exist for starters like Haren, Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Blanton, and even (the AL ERA-leader) Justin Duchscherer (who’s looking more like an eight inning starter each time out?)

Fact: Zito threw 9 CG from 2000 to 2003. Since then he has yet to throw another. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The only pitcher who seemed to escape the wrath of Beane was Aaron Harrang, who achieved success after leaving to Cincinnati. In the end however, Chicago got a very good pitcher in Harden. However as I said before, Lou Pinella and his staff need to use him meticulously. Harden should be a five/six inning starter tops. They have the deep bullpen, and other starters are there to eat the innings that Harden can’t (Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly being two.) Still the five innings that the Cubs will get from Harden are probably the best five innings that they can get (just ask the Giants hitters.) Harden won’t be a rental for the Cubs, since his 7MM club option for next season will more than likely be exercised. And if the Cubs want to get the most from him, like all pitchers that have escaped Beane’s pen, the Cubs will need to handle Harden with serious care.

One day after the Brewers get C.C. Sabathia, the Cubs just acquired Rich Harden from the Athletics. They also acquired Chad Gaudin, who should now finally start after being banished to the bullpen in Oakland.

Billy Beane and the A’s make out equally well. They acquire Sean Gallagher, who should immediately be thrown into their rotation. They also acquired underrated outfielder Matt Murton, talented infielder/outfielder prospect Eric Patterson (brother of Reds’ Corey Patterson), and catching prospect Josh Donaldson. The three prior players are all MLB-ready players for Oakland.

A few days ago, I speculated that Gaudin could be traded, having been banished to the bullpen in April albeit pitching well for the A’s. There have been rumors of Harden moving to the Cubs, and I didn’t expect the move to happen so quickly. When Sabathia was moved to the Brewers, I labeled Milwaukee as my favorite in the division. This trade suddenly changes things. Yes Harden has injury problems, however when he’s dominant he’s one of the best in the game. The Carlos Zambrano/Harden pair equally matches up well with the Sabathia/Ben Sheets duo for the Brewers. And Gaudin, a very strong and healthy arm, easily gives the Cubs depth to replace Gallagher.

Even though Oakland is well in the thick of things, this trade doesn’t overly hurt them. Even though they lost their dominant ace in Harden, they still have All-Star Justin Duchscherer to lead the rotation. Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Joe Blanton round out the rotation. The A’s also get some bench depth with this move.

Any ways this move came as a surprise, and now it’s time for the Cardinals to make a move… the ball is clearly in their court.

Again a great trade for both teams. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Out of all the news today on this Memorial Day weekend, even with Jay Bruce being (finally) called up to the Reds, one story that got to me most was the passing of former Cubs pitcher Jeremi Gonzalez. He was struck by lightning in Venezuela. He passed away at the age of 33.

When Gonzalez first came up in 1997, I honestly thought that he’d be a big part of the Cubs future. He had a solid rookie season, going 11-9 with a 4.25 ERA (he finished ninth in the Rookie of the Year voting.) However after that he struggled. He ultimately finished up playing with the Brewers, as well as parts of Japan as well. He had great stuff, however could never pan himself out thereafter. Maybe it was because Kerry Wood was coming up, I’m not sure. Still, Ozzie Guillen had some nice remarks to say about the former pitcher.

There was a rumor floating around this morning of a proposed trade between Boston and Chicago which would have sent Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp to the Cubs for pitcher Jason Marquis and outfielder Sam Fuld. Apparently it’s not true (supposedly an agreement was met.)

The Cubs are still interested in Crisp however, but Boston is apparently after more than Marquis (the package would start with pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.) Crisp is owed roughly 11MM over the next two years, however that’s small in comparison to the 17MM owed to Marquis. This move didn’t seem to make sense, especially from Boston’s standpoint. Theo Epstein usually avoids pitchers like Marquis, however if the Josh Beckett injury is worse than reported, he’s still worth the interest.

Crisp would be a welcome addition for the Cubs, and his salary isn’t overly obtrusive. He’s unhappy about being relegated to a bench role, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury apparently the incumbent (before yesterday’s three hit game, Ellsbury was 1-16 this spring.) Also in a slump is the Cubs’ young center field prospect Felix Pie, who tailed off after his early two spring homers. Ultimately I do see him going to Baltimore with Gallagher for second baseman Brian Roberts. Not to beat the deadest of horses anymore, Peter Gammons still believes that the trade is on.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged under 14 wins a season (MLB.com photo)

There have been rumors and speculations all off-season about how Baltimore was planning on bringing back free agent Corey Patterson for another season, even with Adam Jones most likely given control of his position. This isn’t going to be the case however, with Patterson accepting a minor league deal with the Reds this evening. I’m honestly shocked that he couldn’t get better, if not even a major league contract. He should have the position all to himself however, since as many have pointed out the Reds would love to delay Jay Bruce’s debut to push back the hands on his service clock.

With Patterson gone, the only viable center fielder left is Kenny Lofton. The Cubs are supposedly interested in Boston’s Coco Crisp however. With the Brian Roberts trade talk finally starting to heat up again, I’m starting to see that young Felix Pie could be heading to Baltimore. I’ll stand by my prediction from yesterday, that Baltimore acquires Pie, Sean Gallagher, and Eric Patterson (Corey’s brother) for Roberts. I’m also starting to see Jason Marquis being moved for Crisp. I’m not sure as to which will be the precursor for the other, but if Baltimore receives my suggested haul, then Andy MacPhail definitely receives my respect. It would be the most-lopsided trade of the off-season hands down.

Two starting pitchers agreed to terms for the 2008 season. Both of which are figured to be innings eaters for their respective teams.

• In the smaller of the two signings, Jeremy Guthrie agreed to terms with the Baltimore Orioles for the 2008 season. His deal will pay him roughly 800K for the season. If left-handed ace Erik Bedard is traded, Guthrie then becomes the teeam’s de facto Opening Day starter. As a starter last year, he was 6-5 with a 3.44 ERA. Overall Guthrie pitched 175.1 innings in 2007, and is expected to eat another 200 in 2008.

  Guthrie’s 2007 season was a tale of two seasons. Before July, Guthrie was walking about one batter per nine innings. Afterwards that shot up to three batters per nine. On average, that’s about what he’s been walking ever since he’s been in the majors, but that might not be a concern for him. I know that I’m an O’s fan, but regardless I’m still high on him. He throws in the high nineties, and his control is better than people analyze. The money that Baltimore gave him was a little surprising, since he could have been near minimum for the season. That might have been a good will act from the team, especially since he just broke out and would be arbitration eligible soon. In either case, I project him better than most people do in 2008: 12-9, 3.85, 160K in 190 innings. In other words Guthrie will hit Gil Meche numbers.

• The other signing that interests me was the Cubs’ signing of Jon Lieber. Lieber was shut down early last year due to injuries, but he should be completely healthy in 2008. He’ll be handed the number four rotation spot in 2008, and at 3.5MM it’s a good deal. I like the move overall, and I see something along the lines of 13-11/4.10/155K for the Cubs in 2008.

  I’m honestly not concerned about Lieber’s age or injury concerns. I’ve always been high on him. He should rebound nicely in 2008 for a big deal thereafter. If anyone is concerned, while I brought up earlier that Erik Bedard pitched the best game in 2007 according to ESPN’s game scores, Lieber had the best-pitched NL game in 2007, a 11K gem shutout against the Royals.