Late Innings

In case anyone was living under a rock today, Matt Holliday was traded today, from the A’s to the Cardinals. Billy Beane and Co. receive a plethora of prospects.

Packing your bags for Big Mac land. (AP Photo)

I thought about this trade deep and hard, like a porn star would. Any ways the following is my (albeit drunken) analysis of this blockbuster… initially off the bat I thought this was a win for the A’s. Heck I thought the Brett Wallace swap for Holliday was a steal for the A’s, but Beane also got two prospects as well, a potential 4th outfielder and a potential 4th starter.

Now Wallace, that had me scratching my head… coming into the season, Sickels gave him an A- rating in his list of top 20 Cardinals prospects. He’s got good talent, but he’s clearly regressed. He might not be fit for long term at third (got Hillary Clinton thighs), and is probably going to be shifted across the diamond. He is major-league ready, but is clearly blocked behind some dude named Albert. He’ll fit in well in Oakland.

If he hits better than another St. Louis prodigy to come to Oakland (e.g. Daric Barton), then this deal is a win for the A’s. Using the Victor Wang chart I’ve alluded to yesterday, Wallace is going to be worth something close to 20MM over the course of his tenure as an A. In other words this is an easy win for Beane. Now if Wallace hits super-stardom, then this is grand theft. For the meantime though, I like this deal for the Cards. He makes Albert and Tony happy, adds some punch to their lineup, and can be used to grab a couple draft picks in next year’s draft (assuming they offer the free agent arbitration and he declines.) In the long term though, I like Oakland… actually this trade is an easy win for the A’s.

Now with the Cardinals upgrading their team, will the Brewers trade for Roy Halladay? Any ways back to drinking…

Rob Neyer of ESPN brought up four solid relievers who can be had for cheap:

Relief Pitchers: Joe Beimel, Chad Cordero, Dennys Reyes, Rudy Seanez

Over the past three seasons – all as a Dodger – Beimel was 11-4 with a 3.04 ERA. He gave up seven home runs in 2006, but has allowed just one over the past two seasons and 116 innings. Oh, and he’s a lefty. Either he’s a lousy guy in the clubhouse or his agent’s not having a good winter. Because for the past 50 years there’s been a place in the majors for a guy like Beimel, and I expect there will be for the next 50.

Cordero just has to convince someone he’s healthy. I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite closer again (if he ever was) because he gives up too many home runs. But he’s 26 and he’s got a 2.78 career ERA, and might make someone a fine setup man someday.

Reyes is sort of like Beimel without the fastball (and thus the innings). Last season, he got into 75 games with the Twins and somehow totaled only 46 innings. Which might be some sort of record. Funny thing is, he’s not that bad against right-handed hitters. Anyway, if somebody’s looking for a LOOGY and can’t afford Beimel, Reyes is a solid choice.

And finally, I can’t let the opportunity pass to mention Seanez, who has pitched in the majors since 1989 (with a couple of enforced breaks) with nine different teams (including the Padres for three stints). He’s 40, but pitched effectively in each of the past two seasons and picked up a World Series ring with the Phillies last year. I’m not convinced yet that he’s not the new Jesse Orosco.

With that all “said", take Reyes off the list. The Cardinals nicely upgraded their bullpen for a guaranteed 3MM. Nothing against Brian Fuentes, who the Cardinals were interested in and is a very solid pitcher, but Reyes is a much more cost-effective answer, who costs a sixth of what Fuentes signed for.

Here’s a shocker: the Cardinals acquired Padres shortstop Khalil Greene for a pair of “relief prospects". There was speculation that he was going to be traded before next week’s Winter meetings, and with Kevin Towers under orders to cut payroll, Greene and his 6.5MM was a logical choice to go. Until we know more about the prospects, it’s hard to rate this trade. Still give credit to the Cardinals for being there on the end of the salary dump. On an aside, I’m glad that the Orioles didn’t cough up Garrett Olsen for Greene.

After hitting 27 HR in 2007, Greene dropped down to 10 in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

Cardinals’ shortstop Felipe Lopez, acquired in media res last season from the Nationals, was quite the star. Looking at the slashes he got from his new team: .385/.426/.538. Wow. So teams on the West Coast are courting Edgar Renteria, Rafeal Furcal and Orlando Cabrera, yet no one is interested in Lopez? The reason why, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick puts it:

…his .418 batting average on balls in play after the All-Star break makes some teams wonder if there wasn’t an inordinate amount of luck involved…

Unless Scott Boras can sell him as “The Ted Williams of BABIP", then he won’t be getting paid on the same level as Furcal will. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad option. He runs well and has occasional power (though he won’t hit 23 HR again like he did in 2005), however I feel as though he got lazy the last couple of years. It’s amazing what free agency can do to a player. I won’t complain if some team gives him two years of 12MM baseball.

…

I had some other links today to comment on, however in the spirit of Thanksgiving I donated them to Mr. Dierkes at Trade Rumors. So that’s why I’m rather quiet tonight. That, and I’ve been drinking heavily. And yes it’s only 6PM EST… so this will be a long night.

To paraphrase loosely what Joe Biden said during the Presidential Campaign, something big will happen tomorrow, in either the MLB free agent or trade market. I really hope so too; the market has been relatively stagnant of late. Any ways Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of Late Innings! I promise many months of useless posts ahead for your reading displeasure.

Update: I wasn’t the only one who thought that Mauer should have won the award… ESPN’s Rob Neyer also agrees. Still Pedroia is NOT a bad choice by any means.

As of now, the MVPs were officially determined by the BWAA. Dustin Pedroia took the American League honors, while Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols took home the National League award. Personally, the BWAA got these correct, as they did with the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards. It’s what happened further down the list that makes me scratch my head.

Honestly I’ve been back and forth on the AL choice for some time now. I’ve thought about each of the top four players winning the award, especially Joe Mauer in particular. Pedroia is a fine choice, and had an all-around solid 2008 campaign. Still given the fact that the race was as up-in-the-air as it was, I expected this to be much closer. Mauer got the most second-place votes, but Pedroia won the award handsomely. If anything, the race should’t have been as close in the National League as it was between Pujols and Ryan Howard.

The AL MVP hit .326/17/83 with 20 steals in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

Basing the MVP award on the first choice is entirely unfair, since that immediately disqualifies 73% of players who go back home in October. However these two points were clearly relevant in this year’s voting, and it was more obvious in the National League. Going by pure statistics, Pujols destroyed Howard in 2008 (think “the slashes.") However since Howard was part of a much more potent offense, he had more chances to drive in runs than Pujols. And Howard’s team also made the postseason as well by the way.

The NL MVP hit .357/37/116 with an OPS of 1.114 (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, file)

I know Pujols made comments back in 2006 about how he should have won the award instead of Howard since his team made the playoffs (ironic how we have the exact opposite case here), but Howard was clearly MVP-worthy in 2006. There are a handful of players in the National League who were more valuable than him in 2008 however.

Some of the writers who cast ballots the past few days have had me scratching my head. Some things I don’t get:

• Why did Cliff Lee win the Cy Young yet finish behind Francisco Rodriguez in the MVP voting?
• Which writer actually gave K-Rod a first place vote in the first place? (Seriously???)
• Why did Carlos Delgado finish in the top ten in NL voting, yet a more-valuable Carlos to the Mets (that is Mr. Beltran) only receives ten points?
• How come Hanley Ramirez failed to crack the top ten?
• How come Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia (finishing fourth and sixth respectively) got as much consideration as they did when they were mostly mediocre for their previous clubs before being traded?
• Why was Edison Volquez considered for the Rookie of the Year voting, when he clearly wasn’t a rookie? (Actually BP hit this hard over the weekend.)

I know new age statistics aren’t popular with the classical BWAA voters who casually follow the sport, however one statistic that’s clearly applicable is VORP, or “Value over Replacement Player". In other words, this is the “V part” of MVP.

With that said, my logic for calculating the MVP is relatively simple. Pick a player, then remove him from the team. The player whose team regressed the most after this happened is the MVP. It’s not too hard (though you could accomplish this by using the following algorithm for calculating VORP.) I mean, if you removed Pujols from the middle of the order in St. Louis, would the team have even been in contention in September, especially given their injury-riddled pitching staff? Probably not. What happens if you remove Howard? Dare I say this, but given Howard’s lousy postseason play, the Phillies would have still won the World Series.

Overplaying your Hands

I know I didn’t mention this, however I like the prospect (Jose Ceda) the Marlins received from the Cubs in the Kevin Gregg trade (he was the guy that I wish Baltimore would have got if they had traded Brian Roberts last Spring.) Any ways back off the tangent, the Giants made the first quick strike into the free agent market, grabbing lefty Jeremy Affeldt at two years, 8MM. Like everyone else, I like this move. Affeldt is a good pitcher who will flourish in (pitcher-friendly) San Francisco.

Terms of the contract weren’t anything different than what Ron Mahay got from the Royals last winter (he’s also a good lefty), however the Giants could cash in if Affeldt either gets a chance to start or close for the team. The likelihood of this happening is good too, with Tim Lincecum being a strong canidate for a breakdown in 2009, and their All-Star closer (Brian Wilson) being anything but automatic.

If Affeldt starts for the Giants, the team could be in the same boat as the Cubs are with Ryan Dempster (who apparently is on the verge of signing a four year, 50MM deal. Update, it happened, I’ll discuss late.) As many remember, Affeldt broke into last winter demanding something like 7MM over four years. He didn’t get the deal, and settled on the one-year deal he got from the Reds. It paid out well for both parties, since Affeldt proved that he was a serviceable pitcher, and the Reds get compensation in the 2009 draft since Elias classified him as a Type B free agent.

Usually when a player turns down a lucrative contract, you have to think a little. Josh Fogg turned down a big deal from the Rockies last Winter, only to find himself looking for work in the Spring. Same thing goes with Kyle Lohse, who turned down 21MM from the Phillies and found himself in the same position (he did get paid a year later however.)

Affeldt didn’t officially receive a big offer last Winter, however I wonder why he didn’t test the market a little better this year. Still, I’m sure he thought about Fogg and Lohse when he made his decision yesterday. Now what will the other free agent starters do with the Yankees’ offers, that is Sabathia (140MM) and now A.J. Burnett (80MM?)

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

I know I got around late to this, but regular readers of Late Innings know that I poke fun at Kyle Lohse often. And after yesterday, I got a few emails asking me about what I thought about Kyle Lohse’s 4 year/41MM contract extension from the Cardinals (this is an extension since he technically didn’t hit free agency.) Honestly I don’t see the Cardinals getting any sort of a “bargain” here. If anything they might have overpaid.

There was a story which came out yesterday, stating that MLB home runs per game are at fifteen-year historic lows. Is this all because of the steroid issue which broke after last year’s Mitchell Report? Not sure. Torii Hunter was quoted on this issue as well. However in the end, we had low home run totals in 2008. The AL Leader was Miguel Cabrera, who only hit 37 this year. There were only two hitters in the majors who had more home runs: Adam Dunn (who hit 40 between the Reds and Diamondbacks) and Ryan Howard (who hit 48, I’ll talk more on him later this week.) Hitting was down this year, slugging was down. What was up? Simple, it was pitching.

In 2007, we only had one starting pitcher who ended up with a (qualifying) ERA under 3.00, and that was Jake Peavy. This year, we had seven. It seemed that many pitchers this year had career years, including Lohse, who ended up a solid 15 wins and a 3.78 ERA. Lohse always had good stuff, however at times he is far too hittable. He still projects to a number #3 starter, however being behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in next year’s rotation, this should fit well for him. The one thing that Lohse has going for him is his durability, and Lohse is a little bit better than just an “innings eater.”

I poked fun at Lohse last year since he was seeking a contract very similar to the one that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners (4 years/48MM.) In hindsight, this was a terrible move by the Mariners (he went 4-15, 6.46), and any team that would have gave that money to Lohse would have had buyer’s remorse. The Phillies offered Lohse 3 years/21MM, which he and (his agent) Scott Boras scoffed at. In the end, he settled on a one year 4.5MM deal with the Cardinals. All during the season, we heard remarks that Lohse was going to go for the highest bidder come free agency. However in the end, it was Lohse who asked the Cardinals to begin talks for an extension.

Lohse read the market. He saw the resurgence in pitching. He was right in doing this; his value probably couldn’t be any higher. Pitching is back in baseball, and this should impact the cost of starting pitching in free agency. Yes we know that C.C. Sabathia will most likely get 20MM per year this winter, however will teams spend in excess of 12MM per year on someone like Jon Garland, when they can surely get the innings (and quality) at a much cheaper price?

I’m not sure how this news will impact other free agent starters. Everyone thought it was certain that Oliver Perez would be a 15MM to 18MM pitcher this year, even coming off an off year where he only won ten games. However that doesn’t seem as likely. The same thing goes with A.J. Burnett. The Jays have reportedly offered him a four year, 54MM contract (nullifying the remaining two years, 24MM on his current deal. On an aside, I was close when I guessed that he’d get 51MM over four years.) If Burnett (who won 18 games in 2008) wants to stay in Toronto, he’ll take the offer. I honestly think he’ll do the same. Other people (like Rosenthal) think that Burnett wants to hit the open market, where he could get 18MM-20MM per year with the New York teams bidding.

I think the Jays’ offer is very fair, especially in comparison to the Lohse contract. Kyle Lohse set the market with this deal yesterday, and this will be used as the barometer for signing the remaining free agent starters. As a prediction: I think the starters are going to sign for far less than many people are expecting.

Lohse got something it took him a year to get: job security. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

The other team making noise before next Thursday’s trading deadline was the Cleveland Indians. This morning, the Indians acquired RHP Jon Meloan and catcher Carlos Santana for third baseman/outfielder Casey Blake. And a few minutes ago, the Indians acquired starter Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for relief pitching prospect Luis Perdoma.

In regards to what we saw from the Indians so far this July, this is what Mark Shapiro does best. Shapiro tried to sign C.C. Sabathia, however in the end he did the right thing and dealt him to the Brewers for a strong set of prospects. The team had little use for Blake, and it was doubtful that they’d sign him in the offseason after he hit free agency (they’ll save 3MM as well by making this trade.) And Reyes? Yeah like most people, I’m sold on this young pitcher. He looked stellar in the 2006 World Series, and as many people said he simply needs a change of scenery. He’s got great stuff, and going to a no-pressure environment like Cleveland, he could contribue immediately.

On behalf of the Dodgers, this was a move they needed to make. They didn’t cough up their main talent, but like the Yankees they need offense, badly. Andruw Jones isn’t cutting it, and injuries are mounting to their other regulars (like Juan Pierre and Rafeal Furcal.) Blake DeWitt hasn’t had an extra-base hit in a while, and his OPS is dropping like a rock. Andy LaRoche should have been groomed into the position (which he may as well take after Blake leaves in the offseason.) However the Dodgers, like any team in the (weak) NL West are within striking distance of the pennant.

Still in the end, Shapiro and the Indians had a stellar month. The reason they’re not winning is easy, they are plagued with injuries. 2009 could be great for the tribe. I’m still a believer in Travis Hafner, and they’ll have Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona to head their rotation. However in the end they might have made the best move by not letting go of Andy Marte. Shapiro has been burned late by past prospects which have left Cleveland and performed elsewhere (Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie to name a pair.) However if Marte performs well, they’ll be set at the hot corner for a few years now. And there’s no reason as to why I wouldn’t think he’d do so. In a good Tribe lineup, he can hit 20 HR and play stellar defense at third.

Blake makes 6.1MM in 2008. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

The All Star game is minutes away on FOX, and after watching Josh Hamilton’s power show last night, I couldn’t be any more pumped personally. I just wanted to comment on the news of a pair of potential free agents for the Winter: Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez and Cardinals’ starter Kyle Lohse.

Starting with Lohse first, he was the subject of ridicule all off-season (me in particular.) We all saw the money that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners last winter (48MM over four years), and expected Lohse to receive the same from some poor team. It would have been fitting, considering that both were two one-time mediocre Twins pitchers. Lohse’s numbers were average with the Reds and Philies last year, and didn’t merit 12MM a year. The Cardinals and Dave Duncan, desperately needing starting pitching, brought Lohse in for 4.25MM. In the end, this move is paying off well for the Cards, considering the fact that Lohse has a 11-2 record with a 3.39 ERA. Scott Boras came out today saying that the door is open for the Cardinals for extension talks, however I see any extension from the Cards being highly unlikely. If Lohse wins 19, some team will give him 5 years, 60MM. And the Cardinals in the end will even look like more of a winner, after snagging those wonderful draft picks for next year’s Amateur Draft.

The other pitcher to come out saying that he’ll test the market is K-Rod. He wasn’t happy about the arbitration process he went through in the Spring, only being awarded 10MM. That money is paying off for the Angels, considering the fact that Rodriguez has 38 saves already (ten more than the second place closer, Baltimore’s George Sherill.)

Regardless of how much money he’ll get in the offseason, will he be worth the years or dollars, I can’t tell. He fell apart in the second half last season, and his ERA was the highest he’s ever had in a full season. Hamilton clubbed a walk-off shot off him last week, and could that be the signal of a second half decline? We’ll have to see come the Winter, as to whether fatigue sat in to him.

Looking at the closers who got the big money recently, if I had to pick three closers I’d give the money to comfortably, I’d take the following:

1. Joe Nathan (12MM per year)
2. Mariano Rivera (15MM per year)
3. Brad Lidge (12.5MM per year)

and three I wouldn’t take:

1. Eric Gagne (10MM per year)
2. Francisco Cordero (11.5MM per year)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (10MM per year)

I’m just not comfortable with K-Rod, who appears that he’ll break down any minute now. There could be other closers I’d lump in the second (breakdown group): B.J. Ryan (10MM) or Jose Valverde (7MM) being two more. Still in the end, K-Rod will get the record money, and this post will be a mute point. Investing 15MM in a relief pitcher who throws 65 innings is like investing 45MM in a starting pitcher who will throw 195 innings; the mathematics say that it doesn’t make any sense. Still if I had that money and had to give it to a closer, I’d chose Nathan hands down. Rivera would be a good reliable second choice, and I also think that Jonathan Papelbon will be as well. He’s only making 700K this year, and wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. Yeah he’s outspoken, but he’s good. In three years, he’ll be breaking K-Rod’s record closing salary.

Ok it’s finally over. I can’t poke fun at Kyle Lohse anymore; he finally signed today. Lohse got his Major League deal from the St. Louis Cardinals for 4.25MM. It was fun while it lasted though. Even though I criticized Lohse many times during the offseason, I still think this is a great move for the Cardinals. Lohse might not only help soak up innings for an injured Cardinals staff, he occasionally pitches a good game every once in a while.

So the big question everyone is asking is why didn’t Lohse get the money that he originally was seeking? We all remember that right when the playoffs ended, Lohse stated that he wouldn’t settle for anything less than three years and 10MM per season. He shot down (supposed) multi-year offers from the Mets and Phillies too. Did Scott Boras botch things up here? Two reasons why things didn’t play out in his favor in the end:

1. The Arena League. The minute Carlos Silva signed his 48MM deal with the Mariners, Lohse was about as excited as one could get. The Mariners courted Silva like royalty before finalizing the offer. When this was happening, Lohse was envisioning charter jet clauses in his new contract. Teams were already starting to kick the tires on the pitcher, and were preparing him a comparable offer. However the worst thing happened to Lohse, cognitive dissonance set in for the teams. Clubs were figuring that they’d be just as well off by bringing in pitchers on minor league deals then by signing Lohse to a large contract (this is the same problem that plagued Josh Fogg.)

   When Lohse called out the American League (stating it to be similar to an “Arena League"), he then alienated 14 potential employers for him. Which team would want to pay a pitcher who doesn’t want to pitch in their league? In the end, there were only 16 teams bidding for Lohse’s services, unlike the full 30 that Silva had coming after him. That’s part of the reason why Silva got the money he did (the other part of it is because it was the Mariners who foolishly made the deal.)

   

   In the end, these two wouldn’t really be a good fit.

2. Competition. While Lohse was holding out for his best offer, he was watching his potential suitors fill up slots with lesser arms. Baltimore solved its problem by acquiring Steve Trachsel, and the Phillies did the same with Kris Benson. The Mets are deep with Arms, and Lohse simply wasn’t appealing to the White Sox or Astros.

   Today, teams aren’t paying for mediocrity anymore like they used to. Granted there was the Silva signing, but that came from Seattle, a team who offered Jeff Weaver 8MM last season to pitch for them. St. Louis was a perfect fit for Lohse. Their rotation is fighting injuries, and there are currently little options outside of Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper.

If Lohse catches lightning in a bottle, the Cardinals could possibly trade him come midseason, especially with pitchers like Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Matt Clement returning. Young Anthony Reyes is also waiting in the wings. So for 4.25MM, it’s a good move by the Cardinals; there’s very little risk with this deal. If Lohse wins 10 games for them, it’ll be a good move by the team. It’ll also be good for Lohse, who can use this opportunity to rebuild his value.

Granted, yesterday was a very slow news day in baseball. Yeah, I know… there was a “big game” yesterday. So with an estimated 98 million fans watching the game yesterday, the best thing we saw in the news was a blah extension from the San Diego Padres being offered to Khalil Greene (I wanted to see arbitration battles.) Thankfully things today started out today a little better:

• A Signing I Love: Kudos to the Detroit Tigers and their marvelous off-season. They kicked off everything with the biggest trade in baseball this year, by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins. The next thing they did right was extend Willis for a contract far under his market value. After this, even though they did get Nate Robertson under contract for another three years, they capped off things today with a nice five-year/30MM extension with center fielder Curtis Granderson.

  

  Pump it.

  Yes, like everyone else I love this contract. Granderson is one of the rising stars in the game, and this contract will take out two years of free agency for him. His emergence made the Cabrera trade possible, with Cameron Maybin’s path to the majors being blocked by Granderson. With the Tigers holding a 13MM option for him in 2013, this move is a total win-win for Detroit. Now only if he would update his blog on ESPN (it’s a nice read.)

  There’s been all sorts of talk about how Detroit is built to win now. Yeah we know, the experts are right… Detroit is going to win now. They have one heck of a team. However don’t let them fool you, Detroit is going to also win later. Seriously, why wouldn’t they? Detroit has players such as Justin Verlander, Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez, Willis and Granderson under long-term deals. On deck for the next deal: Miguel Cabrera. Dave Dombrowski clearly knows what he’s doing here, something two out of three MLB GMs doesn’t.

• A Signing I Didn’t Get: The Cardinals did what was expected today and signed Juan Gonzalez for one year. He might not even make the team. I’m not sure why they brought him on, to spell Colby Rasmus? Moves like this happen every month; the Royals did bring on Hideo Nomo last month.
• Something I was Wrong About: The (Devil) Rays learned first hand today why the Braves wanted to get rid of Willy Aybar a few weeks ago. Yes he’s talented, but he has baggage. The news today of him being in jail really hurts his chances of taking the third base job in the Spring, as I’ve been predicting all along. Congratulations should go out now to Evan Longoria, since his competition for the hot corner is now incarcerated. Looks like I’m going to have to take away that Rookie of Year trophy from Jacoby Ellsbury. (On an aside, the team still doesn’t miss Elijah Dukes.)
• Still a slow news day at FOX Sports: Dayn Perry put out his list of the top nine worst players at their position today. Even while blockbuster trades are coming out left and right, FOX writers still have time to write interesting pieces like this. I do agree 100% with Perry’s selections: Kevin Millar shouldn’t be a starter, and Mark Kotsay has never been good. The one thing Perry should have did was listed his starting rotation and bullpen (Carlos Silva should be his Opening Day pitcher if this was the case.)

• Speaking of Blockbusters: The Erik Bedard trade to Seattle is about 99.5 percent done. Seriously, it’s been done since last Sunday. If Adam Jones hadn’t blurted things to the press, this thing would have quietly went down.

  I know that there will be analysis galore about this trade, and the numerous reporters who historically criticize Baltimore just for them “being Baltimore” will be out. Like wise writers, I’m going to also agree with the fact that Baltimore is going to make off with a haul. Yeah, they might have got five averages in the return for Miguel Tejada, however in this case they’re going to be getting back two everyday players (Jones, Sherill), plus three pitching prospects (Tillman being #4 on BA’s Top 10 list for the M’s.) I’m curious to see which of the writers will think that this is a bad trade for Baltimore. There will be tons of them.

  I know that this trade will be costly for the Mariners, however if there’s anything that I can get out of this, it’s that the Mariners will be a pretty good team in 2008. Bedard will make their staff of #4 pitchers (minus Felix) a little bit better (they’d be even better if Brandon Morrow was starting.) Like the Johan Santana trade, this is a trade that Seattle unfortunately needs to make. I’m just curious to see the Angels’ response however.

Two long terms were tentatively finalized today. The larger of the two was the six-year pact between the Colorado Rockies and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. This was discussed everywhere yesterday, the only thing that we don’t officially know is for how long the contract runs through (there’s an option year involved here.) Overall this is a great move by Colorado in my books. I only think that Tulowitzki will continue to improve, and will have his share of endorsement deals coming his way. The only risk that Colorado has to worry about is whether their star player gets injured, but then again that comes along with any long term deal.

The other deal brought about today was a four year/15.5MM deal between the St. Louis Cardinals and Yadier Molina. This deal takes care of his arbitration years, and is in the end sensible as well. Molina’s average rose last year to .275, however I wouldn’t expect it to go any higher. His power should double, and he’d be a great sleeper option at catcher in 2008 (I see him in double digit homer totals, catching in 130 or so games for the club.)

Again, both moves are very solid all across the board. On an aside, the Dodgers signed reliever Scott Proctor to a 1yr/1.115MM deal. It’s the going rate for middle relievers. However the odd thing to look at here is that Joe Torre will be managing him again (Proctor fled from New York in a July trade last year.) Proctor is a candidate to appear in 90 games this year, being one of Torre’s favorite arms out of the bullpen.