Late Innings

A year ago to yesterday, the Brewers inked the closer of their dreams Eric Gagne to a one year, 10MM deal. He stumbled with the job, saving 10 games, winning 4, while pitching to the ugly tune of a 5.44 ERA, 79 ERA+. Yesterday the Brewers did the same thing, bringing back Gagne, however this time it’s to a minor league contract:

Gagne, a right-handed reliever and once the game’s most dominating closer, agreed on Tuesday to a Minor League contract with Milwaukee … Gagne will earn a $1.5 million base salary if he makes the team, plus up to $3 million more in incentives.

In other words he’ll be making 1.5MM if he makes the team, which is for the most part certain. He won’t be closing thankfully, which is Trevor Hoffman’s job, however if thrown into middle relief duties, he’ll be a serviceable pitcher, even with the glut of candidates that they have available.

In other words, a year ago to yesterday, Gagne signed a two year, 11MM contract. This news reminds me of another pitcher similar to Gagne. In comparing the two:

• Like Gagne, he was signed to a one year deal in 2007 with his new team.
• While Gagne broke out with his new team (16 S, 2.16 ERA, 209 ERA+), this pitcher did just the same (11 S, 3.90 ERA, 120 ERA+.)
• Gagne was dealt to the Red Sox later that summer, and this pitcher was also dealt before the trading deadline for another pitcher (Kyle Davies.)
• After the season, Gagne left Boston for greener pastures, and this pitcher did the same thing, signing a deal with the White Sox.

It doesn’t take too much to know that I’m comparing Gagne to Octavio Dotel, who unlike Gagne had a very solid year for the AL Central champs. Now do I think Gagne will rebound? Of course. I’m curious to see his numbers in the new no-pressure situation, that is unless Hoffman falters.

The Brewers signed Prince Fielder this evening to a two year contract for 18MM. He was clearly unhappy last year when the front office renewed his contract for a paltry 670K (he could have gotten the league minimum by the way.) Terms aren’t quite known yet, however if the two parties split their differences with this deal and Fielder got 7MM in 2009, then he’ll get 11MM in 2010. I’m not sure if Scott Boras could negotiate any better than that.

I tried to pick a local story to get some opinion from, and this is the best that I can get:

The Brewers avoid going to the arbitration table with Fielder and won’t have to deal with infamous agent Scott Boras for two years.

Case in point. Negotiating with Boras is a bitch, and as we’ve seen recently, he’s cool with letting his clients ink up to two years in value (e.g. Matt Holiday), especially since we’re currently in a recession and market values won’t have much of an impact of that short period of time. As long as Boras lets his client graduate into the free agency pasture as quickly as he can, then everyone will be happy.

Baring any Nick Markakis-type contract extension, Fielder will become a free agent after the 2011 season.

A number of small deals were done these past weeks, and obviously I’m not able to comment on them as they each come in. Any ways I’ll address the pros and cons of these moves, and give each signing a grade as well, for kicks.

Mets sign starting pitcher Tim Redding

If there was a pitcher that I wished Baltimore would have signed, I was hoping it was him. Redding is a little better than a fourth starter, and as I brought up a few days ago, there was a great post up on Beyond the Box Score which goes into great detail explaining that. Any ways Redding is now part of the Mets’ property, and if you’re a Mets fan you shouldn’t be any happier about this signing.

Redding should be counted on for 180 innings in 2008, however a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are a likelihood. Any ways this is a one year deal, and at 2.25MM they got a bargain. This move gives the Mets some more leverage against the Philies, and also weakens their divisional opponents the Washington Nationals (if that’s even possible.) Hopefully Redding can be used as the fourth starter, pushing Mike Pelfrey back to the fifth spot to cut down his workload from last season. If the Mets sign Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe, that would also help.

Grade: A-

Red Sox sign pitcher John Smoltz

If you do a search, Theo Epstein also inked outfielders Mark Kotsay and Rocco Badelli to contracts this week (I’ll leave this as homework.) He also signed pitcher Brad Penny to a 5MM contract back in December as well. In either case with all of these deals, Boston got themselves quality outfield and pitching depth, and they didn’t over-pay for any of it. Smoltz and Penny are intriguing options themselves. If they revert back to their 2007 form this season, the Red Sox could be a dangerous team for an already difficult AL East. I know it’s a good problem to have, but Clay Buchholz is currently seventh on the team’s depth chart now. However I don’t see any reason why the team should trade him for catching.

Grade: B+

Brewers sign closer Trevor Hoffman

The Brewers snagged themselves a solid ninth inning option, however they’ll be paying Hoffman 6MM in 2009; they had to give up an extra 2MM to convince him not to sign with the Dodgers.

Even in midst of the Padres’ abysmal season last year, Hoffman still managed to save 30 games, or roughly half of their team’s wins. Keep in mind that he’ll be moving out of the “cavernous” Petco, but that shouldn’t be a problem. 2008 was just a bad year in general for the Padres, Hoffman and everyone else included. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoffman rebound nicely in 2009. There’s clearly some upside here.

Grade: B

Reds resign infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

He’ll get 2MM in 2009. It’s not a bad contract by any means (I expected Hairston to pick up more money), however he’ll be back for the Reds and is a good threat for 30 steals, 80 runs, double digit home runs and a .290 average. Hairston’s versatility is key here, as is can play any of the outfield positions as well (especially given that the team lost Ryan Freel back in December to the Orioles.) Hairston can also serve as a corner infielder if need be.

The irony about this deal is that the Padres signed his brother Scott Hairston to a 1.25 deal yesterday as well. Still, Hariston is a much better option than Willy Tavares.

Grade: B-

It seems that every free agent predictor I recently saw had free agent C.C. Sabathia receiving a contract of total compensation of 140MM. Personally I pinned him at 143MM back in August, but that was over seven years. The official offer from the Yankees has it at 140MM over six.

Sabathia and the Yankees makes sense, especially considering how they lost out on Johan Sanatana last winter. This is the move that everyone saw from day one, and Sabathia is about to become a Yankee. I highly doubt that his side will submit a counter-offer to the Yankees, especially since 140MM is tough to top. Besides, the last thing Sabathia would want is for the Yankees to withdraw the offer (hence the push from the MLB Players Union on him to sign this deal.)

This signing should go down this week sometime. Honestly I like it. I expected it. Sabathia is good and the Yankees will have him in his prime. LeBron James is estatic with this move, and Doug Melvin is depressed. I understand that Sabathia’s camp referred to the Brewers’ offer (supposed 5 years, 100MM) as “window dressings", but at least he made the effort to keep him in uniform. There’s not much left for him to do now except for to take the draft picks and move on.

So here we are. The Yankees are moving swift and quickly to completely make over this team. Sabathia is a good start, and I loved the Nick Swisher trade (what a steal.) As to who will be the next starter that the Yankees haul in, my guess is Derek Lowe. It’s fitting, since Lowe is the top target that the Red Sox want this winter as well.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

Any ways, we’re five days past the first trade of the MLB offseason, and people are still talking about it. For the most part, people are thinking that the Marlins got the upper hand in the deal which saw them receive reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals for slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs. The most ridiculous thing I’ve seen recently: Mike Jacobs the Musical.

I’ve said it many times recently here: I like the Jacobs trade. The Royals gave up a replaceable reliever and received much needed power, especially considering that their lineup was second to last in the AL in home runs. I know that Jacobs has his holes (OBP), however with a little tinkering he can become a great trade chip for the Royals. Nunez isn’t a bad reliever, however he lacks the upside needed to push himself into the closer’s role (a poor K/BB ratio being one.)

I saw Posnanski’s blog this morning on the trade, and he doesn’t like it. However he echoed the same points, that is the Royals chose SLG over OBP. However in other words, he echoed what I’ve been saying along about the trade:

Mike Jacobs might hit 30 home runs for the Royals this year. He might get his on-base percentage up into the respectable range. He might have his best year. He might. He might. And it isn’t like the Royals traded away a star to get him. … But, more I think about it, I don’t see how he fits into any sort of plan. At all. And the more I think about it, the more I feel certain that this is precisely the kind of move you do not make.

On the other side of the coin, BA was optimistic about the trade:

Put it all together and I just don’t see where there is all that much risk in this trade from the standpoint of Moore and the Royals.

Precisely. The Royals rolled the dice by acquiring Jacobs, and the only chips they had on the table was Nunez. Jacobs has faults, however he’s still young and has upside. And as the previous authors said, he was hampered by unlucky BABIP (which precipitated his .247 average in 2008.) He could blossom into a .270/38/115 hitter for the Royals. Alex Gordon and others in the lineup could benefit from him as well (just like every other hitter in the Marlins’ lineup did last season.) And if this happens, I’ll be here, same time same place, to criticize all the haters of this trade.

Some other things from today:

Brewers pick up Mike Cameron’s 2009 10MM Option

This was an easy move on behalf of Doug Melvin and the club. Cameron only hit .243 in 2008, however he launched 25 HR and stole 17 bases. He also only made one error as well, fielding to a stellar tune of .997. For above-average position power and defense for a center fielder, 10MM is a bargain. And it seemed that the Brewers played better with him in the lineup, especially defensively (Ryan Braun was quietly a good defender in left field.)

Link Roundup

• The MLBTR top 50 free agents are up for everyone to see. Note that I did mine back in August, and I agreed with his destinations for the top two free agents: C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. One other note, we both agree on the Brewers spending big on a closer, though I see Francisco Rodriguez getting the contract, not Brian Fuentes.
• Joe Sheehan (of BP, special to CNN SI), picks five “radical moves” that would be interesting to see made this winter. Camden Chat does agree that it would be interesting to see Brian Roberts move to shop to accommodate one of the free agent second basemen this winter.
• RotoProfessor essays worth discussing: Manny Ramirez’s effect on the Dodgers lineup in 2008, and Rich Hill’s role for 2009. Both of these are good reads. Honestly I’ve given up on him, especially after he got torched for six runs on last Friday’s one inning start. Hill’s solid 2007 season (11-8, 3.92, 183K in 195.0 innings) seems like it was ages ago.
• Changes are coming to Late Innings real soon… I can’t say what. (I’ll give you a hint, it involves two thoughts: revenue and Sam Adams.)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

I know that after today’s effort by the Phillies pushing out C.C. Sabathia and the Milwaukee Brewers out of the postseason, a number of teams expected to bid on Sabathia come November expressed heavy sighs of relief for two reasons:

1. The NLDS ended in four games, not five, when Sabathia would have been trotted out in Game Five of the Series.
2. The Brewers won’t advance into the NLCS to face the Dodgers, with by that point having Sabthia throwing around 265 innings.

Sabathia only threw under four innings in game two of the series, and ends up with around 257 innings for the season. Sabathia has been used heavily the past two years, and is expected to land a contract in the six years, 150MM ballpark. In regards to the teams expected to open the checkbook for him (e.g. the Yankees), from an excellent piece today on RotoWorld by Matthew Pouliot, something to consider about the ace:

Including the postseason, Sabathia has thrown 513 innings over two years, the highest total since Randy Johnson in 2001-02. Johnson threw just 114 innings the following season. Mark Buehrle, the last AL pitcher to go over 500 innings in a two-year span in 2004-05, saw his ERA jump from 3.12 to 4.99 in 2006. Livan Hernandez also topped 500 innings in 2004-05. His ERA jumped from 3.98 in 2005 to 4.83 ERA in 2006 and hasn’t come back down since.

Personally I’m not a fan of starting pitcher abuse. I love watching young pitchers like Tim Lincecum throw, however I cringe in horror when their management (e.g. Bruce Bochy) have them throw 227 innings in a year (Matt Cain is equally abused.) Some pitchers who were abused in 2007 pitched well in 2008, for instance Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78). Others like Aaron Harrang (6-17, 4.78) did not.

Any ways, for those fantasy owners out there… judging on our lessons learned in 2007… if it’s the fourth round and Sabathia and Lincecum are still on the board would you draft them? Personally no, I’d take a solid hitter. I’m curious to see what their numbers will be like in 2009, and wouldn’t risk anything better than a sixth round pick on these two arms. Of course I could be completely wrong here, but we’re starting to see the risk in spending high picks on drafting expensive starting pitching.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

Wow, thanks to the Orioles and their shitty September play, I’m now an alcoholic. I actually came up with a new drink which I’ve called “The Jamie Walker“. Ironically it has no Johnnie Walker, but it has a strong shot of whiskey in it. When watching the Orioles play, if you ever want to make a “Jamie Walker” do the following:

1. Take a bottle of Miller Lite.
2. Pour in a shot of Chivas Regal.

Bam motherfucker! Before you know it, after a few of these you’ll be watching good baseball, regardless of whether you’re watching the Cubs or the Nationals. And on the good side, you’ll be going through fewer cases of beer. Speaking of good baseball… I’m watching the Brewers and the Pirates play right now. At any other point of the season, this game would be a yawn-fest, however it’s a good one tonight.

So the Brewers made the oddball move and decided to start Yovani Gallardo. I honestly thought he’d be in the bullpen, but then again these are the Brewers. They’re tied at 1 with the Pirates in the eighth. Meanwhile, the Cubs are tied with the Mets in extra innings. The Astros are also winning, but after tonight should have zero chance of making the playoffs whatsoever. The Philies are off.

On an aside Gallardo looked rock solid. He struck out six of his first seven, and pitched four innings of one-run ball. That’s exactly what the Brewers were expecting. So now they can put Ben Sheets and his crutches on the mound on Friday, C.C. Sabathia pitching on two days rest on Saturday, and have Cal Eldred come out of retirement to pitch the finale on Sunday in that final crucial series against the Cubs. Yes these are the Brewers. They do good, choke, then do good again. And for some reason I still see none of these teams making the playoffs.

I wish I had a healthy Gallardo on my fantasy team, at least one of them (I think my best team will finish fifth this season in the one CBS Sportsline league I’m in.) My strategy year in and year out is draft starters early and often. Good hitting can be found on the waiver wire as the season progresses. I’m partially right. On average my teams were hitting .280 (good), but we were pitching to an ERA of 4.20 (bad) with a WHIP of 1.40 (worse.) I’ll try to get a new strategy for next year, however I’m a huge fan of Gallardo.

Earlier on this season, I said that Gallardo would post similar numbers to Tim Lincecum. Does that mean that Gallardo’d have 17 wins, a 2.60 ERA, chance at Cy Young, dead arm and case to file a claim of abuse on his manager like Lincecum does? Not exactly. However if healthy, he’s good. He’s very good.

A healthy Gallardo will mitigate the blow of Sabathia and Sheets leaving as free agents this offseason. He’s got ace potential. Seriously. If you’d take his 2008 numbers (over 4 starts) and pattern them across a full-season’s worth of starts (35 starts), you’d have the following line: 0-0 record, 1.88 ERA, 175 strikeouts in 210 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP.

(Note to Late Innings readers: the author is currently wasted.)

Soon to crack the Brewers rotation: Yanni Gallardo.

There has been rumors all weekend about the Brewers being after Giants second baseman Ray Durham, and they finally acquired him this afternoon, shipping to the Giants pitcher Steve Hammond and speedy Single-A outfielder Darren Ford. The Brewers were also supposed to get pitcher Jack Taschner from the Giants, but I guess that fell through.

I can understand why they’d acquire someone like C.C. Sabathia, but I don’t understand why they would give up that much for Durham. Those two prospects aren’t high caliber players, however they’re taking on some salary when acquiring Durham for the remaining three months of the season. The Brewers should have gave up Ford tops, kind of how the Orioles gave up Mike McCoy, a generic Triple-A second baseman, for Juan Castro, a generic borderline Major League shortstop. In either case, neither of these two trades should have any impact on their teams whatsoever. Ford might be an option, but he’ll be entering a crowded outfield in San Francisco in 2010.

Any ways kudos to the Giants for at least trimming some fat here.

A few hours after I wrote something on what I heard from Ken Rosenthal, the Indians and Brewers finally came to an agreemment for C.C. Sabathia. The details will be known later, however Matt LaPorta is all but certain to be included in this trade. As I said earlier, I love this trade, for it benefits both clubs. Mark Shapiro and the Indians had to make this move, especially while the Brewers’ offer was still on the table. The Indians’ playoff chances are now slim, given the team’s injuries and the insurgence of the White Sox and Twins in their division. Granted they could have held onto Sabathia for the remaining half of the season, however if he could help the team land a player like LaPorta, a player looking like a can’t miss player once he hits the majors (20 HR at Double-A.) The funny thing is that Shapiro could give Sabathia a strong offer and bring back the pitcher as a free agent come fall.

The Brewers are playing teriffic baseball and likewise had to make this move. The team hasn’t had a playoff berth in over 25 years, and their window of winning is closing rapidly. Ben Sheets is a free agent after the season, as is Eric Gagne. And Prince Fielder is expected to be dealt, given the fact that he’s about to hit his first year of salary arbitration (as we all remember and to beat the deadest of horses, Ryan Howard was awarded 10MM last season by his panel of arbitrators.)

Like the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee is stocked in the farm with coveted prospects, especially at Double-A. To acquire a pitcher like Sabathia, LaPorta was needed. However their rotation is now scary. Sabathia and Sheets make up a terrifying 1-2 punch. The team also has the steady Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, who pitched a great game Saturday night. And they also have Yovanni Gollardo, a dominant pitcher when healthy. I know it’s early, but I’m picking the Brewers as my team in the Central, a team that should now make the playoffs. Any ways after this move, the ball is now in Jim Hendry’s court. The Cubs have suspect pitching, as do the Cardnials. I’m curious to see the moves that these two teams will make before the trading deadline. I’m not saying that the Brewers are now a perfect team (they really need bullpen help also), but they have the starting pitching and offense that could help them go on some sort of meteoric tear. The Brewers could be this year’s version of the Colorado Rockies.

According to mlb.com, we’re a good 25 days away from the July 31st trading deadline. It wasn’t as exciting as it was in years past, when the deadline was at midnight instead of at 4pm in the afternoon, however prominent players have been traded in recent years. It’s not that players can’t be traded after the deadline, however if a player is traded in July, he won’t have to pass through waivers.

There are a good number of teams in the playoff hunt, and I’m curious to see what they’ll acquire. Will the A’s acquire another Kevin Appier for their playoff push? What will the Red Sox and Yankees do this month? I’m not sure, but I wanted to chime in on a series of topics.

The Sabathia Sweepstakes

A few months ago, I expected the Indians and Tigers to rebound and push for the AL Central title. The Tigers are doing so, however the Indians are last in their division. The main reason why is because of their lack of offense. Grady Siezmore is “en fuego", however Victor Martinez (albeit injured) is homer-less. Travis Haffner has been a disappointment.

Since the Twins and White Sox have been in command of recent, Mark Shapiro should probably do the best thing and raise the white flag on the season, and trade away the team’s staff ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia, 6-8 3.38 ERA with a MLB-leading 123 strikeouts, has been on a tear of late. Many teams are coveting the potential free agent, who should command a contract in excess of 100MM come this winter. The Rays, Phillies and Dodgers could all use him, however the Brewers have apparently made the best offer for the ace. Granted if the Brewers were to acquire Sabathia, they’ll most likely be coughing up Matt LaPorta, their 2007 first round draft pick.

I was watching the Red Sox/Yankees game on FOX yesterday (it was all that was on), and they went to a cut to Ken Rosenthal, who expects this deal to go down sometime before the All Star break (this week.) I see the Brewers winning the sweepstakes, and the deal would definitely benefit both parties. The Indians need hitting and LaPorta would be ideal. The Brewers who are hot now, would definitely use Sabathia. This is the deal that I would make. The Brewers haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and their window of winning is closing very quickly (Prince Fielder could be traded in the winter?) The two teams have a history of making successful trades (e.g. Richie Sexon in his “good” years), and this one would be a deal that I would approve. Besides, the Brewers could then get the two compensatory picks after Sabathia leaves in the winter (he’ll all-but-sure be a Type A free agent.)

A C.C. trade would make sense for both teams (AP photo c/o CNN.)

Spelling Relief

I was watching the Mets/Phillies game last night, and watched the Phillies’ MLB-best bullpen implode and let the Mets come back (Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez were the culprits.) Was that the reason why they then gave Brad Lidge a three year/37.5MM extension this morning? (Great move for both parties by the way, especially on the club for only getting him to sign for three years.)

The main arm that’s been rumored is the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes. The Rockies have depth with Manny Corpas pitching well, and Taylor Buchholz being un-hittable, so Fuentes is expendable. He’s got closer experience, and is a free agent come fall. In other words he’ll command a deal around 5MM per season. Still a number of teams are coveting him, and they’re all the AL East contenders; the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays are the interesting choice, and would obviously make a move to prevent either of the two teams from acquiring the top setup man.

The two arms that I saw the Rays ready to give up for Fuentes are either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. Personally that’s too much for Fuentes, Davis in particular. A comparable trade is what the Red Sox gave up last July for Eric Gagne. The Rays should give up a starter with some MLB experience, someone much like the Kason Gabbard, who went to Texas in the Gagne trade. Gabbard is fighting injuries, and at times has been effective, however Theo Epstein was able to persuade Jon Daniels to take Gabbard instead of someone like Jon Lester or even Clay Buchholz. The Rays should be showcasing Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell, or even Edwin Jackson. Jackson would make the most sense, since David Price is all but ready to step in and contribute for the Rays. Yes the team is winning now, but trading raw talent like Davis or Hellickson is foolish. It’s something that Bill Bavasi would do.

Mahay, Mahay!

Back in December, I listed my five personal free agent signings of the offseason. Two of them were Royals’ signings. Jose Guillen, at times maligned by the press, is now one of the final write-in choices for the AL All Star team. He was brought in to revitalize their offense, which he is doing. When Guillen hits, the Royals mash. When Guillen doesn’t hit, then the Royals get, um, no-hit. The other player I liked was their signing of Ron Mahay, 2 years for 8MM, whom I speculated that the Royals could spin off for someone else this year. The Yankess wanted him last winter, and could easily want him again come the trading deadline. Mahay is clearly doing his job by the way (4-0, 2.03 ERA.)

Closing Rumors

Some final food for thought:

• The Orioles are a .500 team, and have plenty of chips to trade. Granted there’s their All Star George Sherill, who essentially has pitched the same number of innings now as he did last year, when he was a left-handed specialist. Baltimore also has Brian Roberts (like Guillen a write-in choice) available. Aubrey Huff is also having a fine year and could go for a good price. There are other names as well that could move.
• The A’s are easily buyers now instead of sellers, and will most likely be holding onto Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. I could see Chad Gaudin (relegated to the pen) being moved for a good bat.
• The Dodgers and Orioles need shortstops. Outside of Felipe Lopez, Jack Wilson and David Eckstein, there isn’t much available.
• Matt Holliday, an NL All Star, may or may not be available. If he is moved expect the bounty to be high. The same goes with the Braves and Mark Teixeira. The Braves are still in contention however.
• If the Yankees trade for help, expect Ian Kennedy to go. If the Red Sox make a trade, they’ll have to cough up Justin Masterson. Any team will ask for these two players, since both Joba Chamberlain and Buchholz have been deemed untouchable by their respective teams (and rightfully so.)

In the past week, there have been several mega-deals, that is players giving up money (in terms of their arbitration years) for security. The Marlins inked (or will soon officially ink) Hanley Ramirez to a bargain six-year deal worth 70MM. The Rays gave a little more money than was expected to Scott Kazmir in his three-year, 28.5MM deal. And yesterday, the Brewers inked Ryan Braun to a eight year, 45MM contract (which starts in 2007 with this season’s salary.)

If Ramirez gave up some money for security in his contract, Braun clearly did the same here, if not more. His first year of arbitration would have been worth 10MM alone. Nonetheless, when a player is presented with a total-value contract of 50MM, it’s difficult to pass up the guaranteed security, even if knowing that he’ll make more going year-to-year. Braun had to cough up some valuable free agent years as well, so when the contract is all said and done, he’ll be 32 years old, still in his prime and ready for another contract. It’s easy to say that for Brewers fans, this is the best thing that has happened to the team all season, giving the series of issues plaguing the team (injuries to Gallardo and Capuano, 10MM closer Eric Gagne’s inconsistencies.)

Braun won the Rookie of the Year award in 2007, clubbing 34 homers and driving in 94 runs in the process. What’s amazing is that he was called up in late May. If you look at his career statistics up to this point, he has hit 40 homers and 40 doubles, and still hasn’t played an entire season. People criticized his defense, however moving him to the outfield was also a good move, since he hasn’t committed an error in 39 games there. And his bat is starting to come around as well, shaking off his early “sophomore slump.”

The last Brewer to win the Rookie of the Year was Pat Listach, who won it 15 years ago. His first season in 1992 was incredible, he even had 18 MVP votes thrown his way. If you combine him and Darryl Hamilton, the top of the lineup stole 100 bases for the Brewers that year. However most Brewer fans remember what happened to him shortly thereafter. Major League pitching caught up to him, as well as injuries. He was essentially done in 1997 with the Astros. Listach is now the current manager of the Cubs Triple-A team.

Will Braun follow the same path that Listach did? It’s highly unlikely. The main difference between these two hitters is that Braun is not over-matched when facing Major League pitching. Simply put, he’s one of the best pure hitters that I’ve seen in some time. He has 40 homer pop too, and can also steal a base. If the Brewers could only sign one of Braun or (first baseman) Prince Fielder, I’d prefer that they sign Braun.

This signing is just a start of the long-term deals that should be handed out in Milwaukee. Fielder and Corey Hart should also receive contracts, in building up a solid core of talent that will be around for some time now. Milwaukee should now be focused on acquiring pitching, since that is the pressing issue at hand. However the team and its fans should sit back and at least celebrate for the day, the Braun contract is a steal.

Milwaukee gets away with murder with the signing. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

A series of long term deals were signed today. Two of the main ones came from Toronto, in Alex Rios (6/65MM) and second baseman Aaron Hill (4/12MM.) In later news, Pittsburgh inked their closer Matt Capps to an extension through 2009. All of these deals contain valuable team-friendly options that can be exercised by the club, in some cases taking out years of free agency.

Everyone says that the Rios signing is a bargain in regards to other outfielder signings like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukodome. The main difference between Rios’ contract and the other players’ contracts is that the years covered in the other players’ deals are free agency years. A good chunk of the years in the Rios, Hill and Capps contracts are arbitration years.

When a young player signs a long term contract early on while he’s under control with the team (until he’s a free agent), this can clearly cut down on his earning potential. Players who go year to year often make out better in the end. However the one benefit that players get who sign early on is the security. If they get hurt, they’re still guaranteed the money. This was probably motivation for other team-friendly extensions for players like Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitzki, and James Shields. Granted all three of those players have expressed interest in remaining with their current employers, which always helps.

Milwaukee took the same approach with two of their young stars, that is Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Long-term contracts were offered by the clubs. As to whether the players accept, that’s another story. Fielder and Braun both shown that they can produce above-average at the Major League Level, and coupled with the fact that they’re not as often to get injured as other players (e.g. pitchers), they would probably be best going year-to-year with their clubs. In the end however, I still see them signing the deals (worth substantially more), since they’re most likely pleased with the direction that Milwaukee is heading.

Still in the end it all boils down to security. Rios finally broke out last year with 24 homers (he only hit 27 in his career before last season.) Hill had only nine career homers before hitting 17 last year. Capps got most of his saves last year in the second half. Teams are taking definitely chances with these signings, but in the end most of them work out. Still with this news out of the way, it’s good knowing that Tim Lincecum won’t be a Blue Jay anytime soon…