Late Innings

Update: In case anyone didn’t notice, the Mets traded for Francoeur. This is just as bad as me hooking up with a 300 lb. girl with six kids.

Keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight, and I joked about Jeff Francoeur being traded earlier in the day, after that strange Betancourt deal went down. But still. Wow.

What the fuck is Omar Minaya thinking? Either that or I need some more Blue Moon.

Larry, a.k.a. Chipper Jones gets a new contract today:

Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves agreed Tuesday to a $42 million, three-year contract extension through 2012, a deal with an option that could become worth up to $61 million over four seasons. The agreement virtually guarantees that the 36-year-old Jones will play his entire career in an Atlanta uniform.

I saw the news about this late last night, and was spending the whole evening trying to think of a dollar amount. Yes, 42MM is well below market value, and I expected it to be closer to the 54MM that Ryan Howard got from the Phillies this year. On the whole I love this move, and am glad to see that Jones will remain with the Braves for the rest of his career. I know he’s injury prone, but over the last two years, he’s been worth 15 WAR. Good god.

Atlanta got the outfielder of their dreams today. I’ll give you a hint: his last name isn’t Edmonds.

Atlanta Braves’ outfielder Jeff Francoeur became the latest player to avoid an arbitration hearing today:

Francoeur and the Braves avoided arbitration late Wednesday night when they agreed to terms on a one-year, $3.375 million contract, which includes incentives that could push his earnings this year to $3.4 million.

The $3.375 million base salary represents the midpoint of the arbitration figures the two parties exchanged in January. Francoeur was seeking $3.95 million, and Atlanta offered $2.8 million.

Francoeur’s 2008 season was awful. He hit .239/.294/.359 with only 11 home runs. He spent some time in the minors last season. As to whether or not Francoeur would have won his case, I doubt it, unless the panel of arbitrators looks at his high RBI totals over the last three years (2006 with 103, 2007 with 105, and 2008 with 71.)

RBIs are a meaningless statistic, and if Franceour based his contract demands on that figure alone, then that explains why he asked for 4MM in his first year of salary arbitration. Granted the man is still an XBH machine. He had 59 XBH in both 2006 and 2007, and 47 in his major league stint last season. However his extra base hits are quickly moving towards doubles, instead of deep flies. If this trend keeps to continue, his slugging percentage will continue to decline. Couple this with a horridly low on-base percentage and declining BA, Franceour is quickly becoming a below-average corner outfielder who needs to improve, and improve quickly.

Ken Griffey Jr. is a Seattle Mariner.

So if I read my rumors right, Griff got pissed over DOB at the AJC, rumoring that he “chose” the Braves, so he decided to return home to Seattle in hopes that he’ll plant butts in Safeco. (On an aside, all these stores are using the word “choose", as if we’re dealing with Pokemon.) Anyways it’s a good strategy, but I’m not sure if the Braves should be disappointed that Griffey is off the market, especially knowing that Jim Edmonds is (still) available. Now if Frank Wren would just take my advice, they’d have a pretty interesting outfield this season, especially with Matt Diaz and those rookies in the mix. Then again Wren didn’t take my advice when he was running the show in Baltimore, and he got fired. QED homeboy.

On an aside, boy did I predict that salary that he signed on…

Dear Atlanta Braves’ Fans,

I know you need a corner outfielder badly. David O’Brien and the rest of the people at the AJC agree. As do most well known bloggers, sabr-maticians and fans. You wanted Bobby Abreu, he left for the Angels. You sought Adam Dunn, who will now make the Nationals a 62 win team. Garrett Anderson and Ken Griffey Jr. are also out there, but they don’t wet your appetite. And as we all know, Manny Ramirez is still asking for too much money. You want a player who will be cost effective, yet be worth 4MM a season (according to FanGraphs.) You want an outfielder who played strong defense with his new team after an early trade, hitting 19 HR, with a 136 OPS+ and a .937 OPS as well. Atlanta fans, I have the answer for you.

Sincerely,
Mike

I was just reading Roch… he gives a scouting report on Koji Uehara, a fast ball which tops 89, however he mainly “works in the 82-83 range". I’m not sure how that will fly in the high shooting AL East. Uehara is a control specialist however, however if he gives up something in the ball park of 11 H/9, we’re in trouble. I could be wrong however, Tim Wakefield’s fastball peaks in the 70s and he gets away with it. It’s just something that concerns me, especially with the soft-tossers that Baltimore has tried last season (e.g. Garrett Olsen, Steve Trachsel, Chris Waters.)

Maybe I might be wrong here, and every time that I’ve questioned Andy MacPhail’s decisions, I have been proven to be wrong. MacPhail and the O’s had offers out to Japanese free agents Uehara and Kensin Kawakami… Uehara took the O’s bait, Kawakami took more money from the Braves. He’s getting a three year deal by the way, and terms of it are still to be disclosed… keep in mind that Hiroki Kuroda got 35MM last year from the Dodgers, and that’s what Kawakami was rumored to be seeking. My guess is that the Orioles offered him three years at 7MM per, I’m curious to see what he signed for today.

…

Any ways with Kawakami and Tim Redding now both off of the board, there aren’t too many other options to patch this weak rotation. The arm I would love to see the O’s land is Braden Looper, however I expect the Dodgers to pick up their push for him now with these two arms off the board. Ben Sheets is available but I don’t see any interest. Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe, I expect each of these pitchers to land in the NL East. One last arm… Jon Garland (ugh.) The O’s did inquire on him over the Winter Meetings, however they quickly learned of his asking price, which was five years, 65MM. Keep in mind that was the contract that Baltimore gave Albert Belle years ago, and we all know how “hip” of a signing that was. Any ways long story short, outside of Looper the Orioles should just sit back and let the young arms run the show again (parts of Bowie’s rotation will be close by in Norfolk this week.) And I wouldn’t sign Garland, that would be a disaster. Even if his asking price came down to 25% of what he wants, I’d still say “no.”

Wow, the Winter Meetings have been exciting. A brief note about me: I work full time as an engineer, and dump posts into this blog whenever I get a chance throughout the day. There has been so much to comment on lately as well. One story that got my attention was this supposed rumor for Zack Greinke for Jeff Francouer. This news got the ire of the entire baseball world this morning. Hopefully Dayton Moore got the memo:

A trade that should never be mentioned again…

I know that some of the things that are uttered in the Bellagio shouldn’t be taken with a dime of salt, still with BP is talking about this it’s still something to mention. Moore has been rumored to be smitten over Francouer, presumably during his days as a Braves scout (long before he was the Royals GM.) However coughing up a (saber-) ace for a player banished to the minors, doesn’t get on base, and foolishly turned down a long-term deal from Atlanta management… Granted I know that Greinke is going to be getting expensive soon, however any trades that start with him and the Braves need to be centered around Tommy Hanson.

Moore thankfully shot this thing down today.

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

Update: The third player might be catching prospect Tyler Flowers, according to Rosenthal. And he mentions that Reyes is not in the trade. We’ll see how this breaks out, but this all but certain ends the Braves’ interest in Jake Peavy.

Here’s the story on ESPN, which just broke minutes ago. It’s a five-player trade:

• White Sox get: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge, “another top prospect”
• Braves get: Vazquez, Boone Logan

I’m not sure what ESPN means by “another top prospect", but I’m all but certain that it’s not Tommy Hanson, who will most likely be in the Braves’ rotation in 2009. You could possibly throw out Jason Heyward as well. Granted assuming the White Sox don’t receive one of those two players, I give the edge to the Braves here. Vazquez doesn’t let hitters make contact with him (about 9 K/9), and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA goes down by a run in the National League. Logan will go right into Bobby Cox’s bullpen.

White Sox GM Ken Williams does have a knack for observing talent, and Reyes and Lillibridge had to have caught his eye. Lillibridge will add more depth to the middle infield, and should mitigate the blow of Orlando Cabrera leaving. And I personally think that Reyes can be a strong starter, especially with the White Sox now having him under team control until 2013.

One week after the Election in November, the Orioles are holding a Rally in Baltimore. One point that everyone’s speculating on is that the team will be unveiling a new uniform for the team. Could there be a new logo in store for the Orioles? That is could we be seeing a meaner bird? Hopefully a new logo will force its team to not play like shit each and every September…

The uniform change did some good for the Tampa Bay Rays in the off season last year. Gone was the neon green (as well as the word “devil"), and it was replaced with a more conservative navy blue look. The result, the team went from worst in 2007 to a MLB-third best 97 wins in 2008.

If you look good, you play good (Wikipedia.)

In regards to the World Series, Tampa Bay can still win this thing, even being down 3-1. The series will resume Wednesday, but luckily for the team they won’t have to face Cole Hamels the rest of the year, and won’t have to face bad strike-zones for Scott Kazmir. The two best bullpens in baseball will go at it on Wednesday in Game Five, and if Tampa can break the tie and pull it out they’ll be in good shape. Game Six sees a sharp James Shields going against an erratic Brett Myers, and Game Seven features the Matt Garza/Jamie Moyer rematch. Garza was clutch in Game Seven in the ALCS as well, and if I was Philadelphia, I’d push to win Game Five and end this series, just so I wouldn’t have to face Shields and (the ALCS MVP) Garza.

Angelic Options

Per RotoWorld:

Angels exercised outfielder Vladimir Guerrero’s $15 million option for 2009…Angels exercised RHP John Lackey’s $9 million option for 2009…Angels declined outfielder Garret Anderson’s $14 million option for 2009.

Again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make these moves.

Grading Trades

It was a year ago from this upcoming Thursday that the Tigers and Dave Dombrowski dealt a pitching prospect in Jair Jurjens and a young outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez for the All Star shortstop Edgar Renteria. Renteria struggled in 2008, posting an OPS under .700, and will most likely lead to the Tigers declining the team’s 2009 option. Hernandez meanwhile is one of the top hitting prospects in the Braves orginization (outside of the Jason Heyward, Jordan Schaffer mix), and Jurjens simply went on to go 13-10, 3.68 for the Braves in 31 starts, arguably becoming their staff ace throughout the season.

Back then Detroit got the upper hand with the trade, however it’s clear that the Braves won out in the long run. On an interesting close, here’s a great piece which does the same thing will all the trades that happened last off season.

Update: the Peavy to the Braves trade now seems highly unlikely, especially since Frank Wren doesn’t want to surrender the Braves’ top talent.

I wrote about this earlier last week, and the topic has gotten more and more attention since then. Any ways for the most part, due to issues such as no-trade clauses and prospect availability, the only team that has been linked with the Jake Peavy trade rumors has been the Atlanta Braves. There have been a number of suggestions linked, and the one group that has been mentioned is Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar. Hanson for the most part is their only pitching prospect, Schafer lost some of his early season glitter after his 50 game HGH suspension, and Johnson/Escobar are regulars in the Braves infield.

Any ways personally I don’t feel that is enough for Peavy, who if going by the “good season", “off season” trend for Padres pitchers (which started with Oliver Perez and Brian Lawrence) is due for one hell of a season in 2008. Keith Law for the most part agrees.

The first question I have is why is Jason Heyward’s name not mentioned in these rumors? He should be the starting centerpiece for any deal for Peavy. I know that people don’t like trading their 2007 draft picks, however the Brewers did it with Matt LaPorta when they acquired C.C. Sabathia. I know that I’m not Paul DePodesta, but this is what I would do if I would shop Peavy (which I’m still not sure if the Padres even want to trade.)

Any ways Sickels coincidentally did his 20 best prospects for the Braves last night, during Game 2 of the World Series, and in media res of these Peavy talks. He ranked the prospects, and Heyward is #1, Hanson is #3 and Schafer is #4. Heyward got an A-, and Hanson and Schafer got B+es. Any ways his comments on Heyward:

A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.

Some remarks on Tommy Hanson:

Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.

And a humorous quip on Schafer:

Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.

Any ways to surmise what the Padres could be getting here, a #3 pitching prospect, a #4 outfield prospect, and a regressing infielder in Johnson for an All Star in Peavy (who still had a 2.85 ERA in a “down” year?) If DePodesta pulled the trigger on this trade, we’d be ridiculing him, since this is a worse haul than the Twins got for Johan Santana. The city of San Diego would probably go after him as well.

Any ways to the Braves fans, start the package with Heyward. Throw in Hanson and two other top pitching prospects (kinda barren here) and you can have Peavy. That would do it for me, and would probably do it for the Padres as well. That’s the template which got the Mariners Erik Bedard, the Diamondbacks Dan Haren, the Brewers Sabathia and the Twins Santana.

If the Padres need help in looking for Braves pitching prospects, they can wait a few weeks for Baseball America to do their top 10 organizational prospects. They usually do the NL teams in November and the AL teams in January. Still there’s one thing that’s certain about these Peavy trade rumors: there should be no rush whatsoever on the Padres’ part to move their ace.

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

As I went to the shower, I checked ESPN’s MLB trade deadline blog and found that the Braves are shipping first baseman Mark Teixeira to the Angels. The Braves acquire their first baseman Casey Kotchman plus a minor league pitcher.

In offering a very quick analysis of the deal, both teams made out well. To analyze from both sides:

• The Braves: Granted they lost Teixeira, however they couldn’t have resigned him in the end. Kotchman is a great first baseman however, but he probably doesn’t have the upside that Teixeira has. However in the end this move will save them some money. The main reason the Angels were free to trade Kotchman was because he had no interest in signing a long-term deal; he preferred to go year to year through his arbitration years. Granted that in the end costs far less than it would to resign Tex. In addition to Kotchman, the Braves also acquire lefty Stephen Marek, so this is a solid haul regardless for them.
• The Angels: Granted this move comes with some strings attached, and unlike the Johan Santana trade, there is no negotiation window to sign a long term extension. Part of me believes that something will happen soon though between the Angels and Teixeira. The money they save by not resigning K-Rod and avoiding Kotchman’s arbitration costs will bankroll this extension. Still this move is very nice. The Angels have a dangerous right side of the infield, if you include their talented second baseman Howie Kendrick. However for them to be a dangerous team, they need to address the left side of their infield. It’s a shame that the Braves weren’t willing to take Gary Matthews Jr. in the deal.

Yesterday was an interesting day in baseball. The Cubs pitchers struck out 20 hitters, and still lost the game. Reds’ starter Homer Bailey allows 15 hits in four plus innings to the Rockies (wow!) However the whole day was shadowed by the numerous trade talks. For now I wanted to focus my attention on one hitter in particular, the Braves’ first baseman Mark Teixeira. Not only do I want to speculate on what will happen with him in the next few days, I want to address how well he’ll fare out in the offseason.

Everyone by now knows Teixeira. He’s a free agent this winter, and agreed to a 12.5MM contract with the Braves before the season. His numbers are solid on the season (20 HR, 77 RBI), however his .277 average should be a little higher. Granted Teixeira is known to be a second half hitter, and there’s no reason to believe that he couldn’t end up with 35 homers on the season. And with Chipper Jones off-injured and Jeff Francoeur mired in a season-long slump, his numbers could remain down with that missing protection in the lineup.

The past few days, his name has come up in trade talks. Yes, he would make an excellent two month rental for any team looking for an offensive upgrade, however looking at the teams that are available I don’t see a match. A few weeks ago, there was rumor of a Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira swap in Boston. The rumor was dismissed by both sides, after all on paper it appears completely foolish. The Diamondbacks coughing up their major league ready talent to obtain him, unlikely. Same goes with the two Los Angeles teams, where I don’t see either James Loney or Casey Kotchman being dealt for the two-month rental.

If Atlanta was to trade Teixeira, they should be expecting a package very similar to what Mark Shapiro and the Indians got for C.C. Sabathia. However that trade was back at the beginning of the month. If anything looking at the weak prospect hauls received in recent trades (Xavier Nady to the Yankees, Joe Blanton to the Philies, etc.), I don’t see anything other than two (three top) prospects being dealt, one being tops in the system, but none being Major League ready. The Braves are for the most part out of the race in the NL East, and given the fact that they waited until 7/31/08 to make a move, I see them holding on to Teixeira until the end of the season. They could bid on him, or they could let him walk and take the two additional draft picks in the 2009 Amateur Draft. Ken Rosenthal somewhat agrees here.

Tex’s Monster Pay Day

After the World Series is over, Teixeira is a free agent. So where will his destination be? The two main names that come up are the Yankees and his hometown Orioles. The one main sticking point however is his salary. Scott Boras is expected to start the bidding at 19MM per season, and that might be too high for either club, considering the fact both clubs have had a history of being mired with bad contracts. Both teams now are taking a different approach as well, which is pushing focus towards player development and less towards free agent signings.

In the past year, we’ve seen the market change dramatically. Teams are now taking the risk by locking up their young stars long before they hit free agency and even their years of arbitration. Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Brad Hawpe, Fausto Carmona and Adam Wainwright are a few names to name, and for the most part this strategy is working (Alex Rios‘ power is returning by the way.) And due to this strategy, players like Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton and Barry Bonds are getting little interest. Owners are finally realizing that paying 7MM for a aged veteran doesn’t yield the fullest return on their investments.

Don’t get me wrong, Teixeira will get a nice payday this winter, however I’m skeptical about it getting into the 23MM range like many are predicting. The main reason why is because there are few teams willing to pay him that money. Baltimore is highly unlikely, as are the Mets (who spent top dollar last winter) and the Dodgers (who are apparently having cash-flow problems.) The Angels are a dark-horse candidate, however they have other areas of where they need to spend. I honestly could see Teixeira returning to the Braves, since he just recently built a large home there. It’s going to take 100MM in total compensation to sign him, and given the increased frugality in baseball, I don’t see that figure going any higher. The same thing goes with Sabathia, with the Brewers extending as much mileage as they can out of him before he becomes a free agent (three straight complete games?) Besides, if Teixeira receives a 21MM per year salary, that’s a 70% increase in pay. Will his new team receive a 70% increase in production from him?

Tex will be paid well in 2009, but let’s not get too carried away here. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)