Late Innings

I’ve been following the Roy Halladay sweepstakes closely. Today, the Blue Jays rejected an offer for their ace by the Phillies. As per MLBTR:

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that the Blue Jays have rejected the Phillies latest offer of Carrasco, Donald, J.A. Happ and outfielder Michael Taylor.

The Angels are out of it as well apparently:

(The Angels) were of the mind to remove themselves from the Roy Halladay talks, believing they were never going to come close to the Blue Jays’ asking price of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and a prospect such as outfielder Peter Bourjos.

The Blue Jays want both Joba and Phil Hughes in any trade with the Yankkes. And we have yet to see what the Brewers (the “darkhorse") are going to offer. With the non-waiver trading deadline a few days away, the Jays need to bring their demands. Take this offer that the Jays sent to Ruben Amaro Jr. for example: Kyle Drabek, Happ, and Dominic Brown. As BTBS points out, this trade would have gave the Jays a 36MM return on their investment. Yikes.

I know the Phillies want him, and the Jays have no reason to keep him. And I understand that going back to the World Series would be nice for the Phillies. But the Jays need to come down on their demands. Even if it’s ever so slightly.

The Blue Jays were soooo close to making some noise this winter:

Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera has agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the Oakland Athletics, who also are closing in on a deal with veteran infielder Nomar Garciaparra, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Monday. Cabrera, 34, will replace Bobby Crosby as Oakland’s starting shortstop. Cabrera hit .281 with eight home runs and 57 RBIs and stole 19 bases for the White Sox last year.

On the whole I like this move for the A’s, it’s a shame that they still have Bobby Crosby on the roster however. Still as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts it, they just spent 4MM to bump themselves up from an 82 win team to an 83 win team. For them to see true value on this signing, they’ll need to unload Crosby’s 5.5MM that’s owed to him this year, and in our current economy, that’ll be tough to do.

Speaking of the economy, that’s the main reason as to why the Blue Jays have been so dormant this offseason. I don’t know any other team who had a bad winter. They lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, and won’t get the Type A luxury that the Angels do, since they also signed (Elias higher) Mark Teixeira. All four other teams in the division have improved themselves by at least two Pythagorean wins in my opinion. Granted the AL East is a nasty division to play in, but you need to at least make some moves to make up for those that you lost.

A little drunk now… any ways I’m reading BP and looking at their depth charts… Baltimore is moving up a tad:

The team won 68 games in 2008, and it could have been many more, thanks to a lousy (perennial) September, going 5-20. Strangely enough this team was in first place for a good part of the season last year too, then like always after the All Star break, fell apart. BP has the 2009 corps in place for 77 wins, or a nine win (a modest 5.5%) improvement.

Andy MacPhail and Co. is building a team that’s rooted around defense and on-base percentage. In other words, he’s been reading FanGraphs all winter. And apparently, this is going to be paying off for the team. This is a stark contrast to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have simply put done nothing this winter. And I’m sorry if I offended any Kevin Millar fans here.

Ken Griffey Jr. and the Mariners are closing on a one year deal. He wants 5MM, the same figure that Bobby Abreu is getting. A few days back, the Blue Jays inked Kevin Millar to a minor league contract.

Granted both players are receiving deep pay cuts given last year’s salary. On the surface, Griffey and Millar put up similar power numbers. However Griffey got on base, Millar didn’t do quite as well. Millar was a first baseman, and didn’t put up the expected power numbers. Still given these facts, is Griffey worthy of a 5MM deal, or is he worthy of a minor league contract, especially given his declining defense?

I’d go 3MM plus incentives if I was Jack K.

The Blue Jays and Padres made an interesting trade today:

The career of Matt Bush did not end with the Padres designating the righthander for assignment last week. Instead, the Blue Jays decided to give Bush a change of scenery Tuesday, acquiring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft for a player to be named.

The Blue Jays, coupled with payroll constraints and injuries, are hurt for pitching. Bush is an interesting flyer himself. The Padres back in 2004 signed Bush instead of players such as Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew, figuring that their signing bonuses would have gotten out of hand. Bush was drafted as a shortstop, however off the field issues got in the way. He was ultimately converted to a pitcher (since that was his natural position in high school) and then sat out all of 2008 recovering from surgery.

The Blue Jays need pitching, and I’m not sure where Bush will fit in. He’s years behind other top amateur starters (e.g. Brian Matusz, et al.), however the Jays grabbed him since he is a good talent. He could advance quickly, I’m not sure. Still, going by my count, this is the second top draft pick that they acquired. A few months back, they grabbed Bryan Bullington, the #1 overall pick in the 2002 draft. And if you consider the fact that they also signed Adam Loewen, who was drafted in the 2002 draft #4 as a pitcher, we can clearly start to see Toronto’s strategy of bringing in pitching talent (yes I know that Loewen is an OUTFIELDER.) They lost A.J. Burnett a few months back, and since the Yankees signed three Type A free agents this winter, the Jays won’t be getting the Yankees’ first round draft pick this summer.

In case anyone cares, Baltimore and Toronto swapped swing men today. Actually it wasn’t like that. Baltimore signed former-Oriole John Parrish to a minor league deal. He wants to start, from what we’re told. And a few hours later, Toronto picked up Brian Burres, DFA’d by the Orioles earlier this week after they acquired Rich Hill.

I guess it’s an even swap, though I like Parrish more out of the bullpen than I did Burres. Burres is an interesting arm; he broke out of the gate in 2008, then faltered the rest of the way. The same thing happened for him in 2007, and 2006… My guess for Toronto fans, you’ll love him at the start of the season, then the league will adjust, and it won’t be pretty.

And more on this note, BTBS is reporting that Russell Martin has great words to say about former Oriole pitcher, now Blue Jay slugger Adam Loewen. Actually in the perma-link:

‘You’re a better hitter than I am,’” Martin said. “So I’m really not worried about it at all. It’s going to take him a little time to adjust and to get used to the velocity and stuff like that, but the guy is just a natural hitter. It’s not hard for him to hit.”

Here’s a strange guess: I see Loewen in Toronto’s outfield in the fall of 2009. Loewen is an interesting player, but I guess if Martin’s advice is true, anything can happen.

I think I’m going to start a new section here, predicting the possible sleepers for the 2009 season. One such sleeper pick that I love is the Giants’ new first baseman Josh Phelps. Phelps had an amazing year for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate, .291/31/97. He has a career OPS of .815, and most importantly gets on base. The Cardinals unfortunately couldn’t use him (due to some guy named “Pujols” who just hit .357), and as I pointed out on a previous post, Phelps reminds me of Ryan Ludwick, who came out of nowhere to have incredible success for the Cardinals in 2008.

I give credit to Brian Sabean; this is the kind of moves that the Giants need to make. They don’t need to dole out long-term burdensome contracts to players (e.g. Barry Zito, though I like the Aaron Rowand deal.) The Giants desperately needed offense in 2008 (Tim Linececum was in three 1-0 games in 2008), and Phelps will clearly deliver it. They were admittedly horrible at the corners in 2008, and Phelps can expect 550 at bats in 2009. Phelps “figured it out” in the minors in 2008, and I see him getting his career back on track. Phelps is a very quiet sleeper for the 2009 season, an excellent fantasy pickup, and I can see the following from him in 2009: .275/.375/.470, with 25 HR and 90 RBI.

Some other links that support this claim:

• BTBS
• RotoAuthority
• MLBTR
• SB

Some other random links for today:

• Brad Penny’s 2009 option will most-likely be declined by the Dodgers, and A.J. Burnett is now a free agent. I see Burnett getting 65MM over four years now (I originally bet 53MM back in August, before the great fall that Burnett had this past year.)
• We have a new President apparently.

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

In all fairness, there were three managers canned this week, so far. I was going to write up a piece about Willie Randolph and the Mets on Tuesday (along with his other three coaches), however the new-regime of the Mariners then ousted John McLaren a few days later. And to put the icing on the cake, the last place Blue Jays gave John Gibbons the pink slip on Friday.

Oddly enough, these were the first three managers to be fired this season. Looking back at our “Front Office Canning” scorecard, this makes three managers and two GMs. Still I can understand why all three managers lost their jobs. Gibbons’ team has been sputtering all season, even with the solid pitching staff the team possesses. McLaren’s ship was doomed the minute it left port in March. Randolph is another story however. There was a fair amount of backlash to this firing, especially from Ken Rosenthal.

I can understand that the manager goes whenever the team is struggling. The front office does this moreover as a service to the fans if anything. Back in April, when the Rangers were struggling, Ron Washington’s job was in jeopardy. However the team turned it around and is now a .500 ball club. His job should be safe, but if I had to postulate the next managers to leave the nest, it would probably be a couple of NL Central managers, Cecil Cooper of the Astros and Ned Yost of the Brewers. Both teams spent heavily last winter, and are seeing mediocre results from each team. Speaking of Cooper, here’s an interesting article I grabbed out of the Baltimore Sun, after his team got swept in Baltimore against the Orioles.

Some last minute notes about the managers, Joe Torre’s job being safe in Los Angeles? I say yes, however if anyone takes the hit from the club’s underachievement it would be general manager Ned Colletti. Joe Girardi in New York as a Yankee? The Yankees are playing better baseball of late, and Hank finally shut the fuck up (thank god.) His job should also be safe.

Picking the front runners for the manager of the year wouldn’t be too hard. The National League would be an easy pick, since I’d easily take Tony LaRusa. I had no idea that the Cardinals would be where they are now (Buster Olney agrees.) The American League is a different story. Yes, Mike Scioscia is doing a top-notch job with the Angels, the same thing goes with Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox. Terry Francona is also doing a solid job, as is Joe Maddon with the Rays. Coming from an Orioles fan however, I’d give it to Dave Trembley. He’s starting to get some respect from the media, and his team is four games over .500 (wow!) Not bad for a manger whose team was expected to barely win 55 games this year. And with Cito Gaston back in Toronto (I still won’t forgive him), the AL East is clearly the most exciting and competitive division in all of baseball right now.

Toronto released their veteran slugger Frank Thomas today, a day or so after being told that his playing time would decrease in 2008. Obviously there was money involved here, that is all Frank needed was 304 plate appearances to have a 10MM option vested for him in 2009. However the Big Hurt wasn’t hitting so far, a .167 average being the main culprit here.

What we’re seeing Toronto do is what the rest of the league is finally starting to do, which is save money by offering positions to their younger players. Baltimore did it earlier this year, by swallowing the 11MM that outfielder Jay Gibbons was owed so that Scott Moore could receive more playing time. Other teams aren’t calling for players like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mike Piazza, knowing that they can fill those at bats with cheaper, younger talent.

The moves made by Baltimore and Toronto are basically going to be the tip of the iceberg for things to come, that is more teams should be following soon. If the over-paid, aging veteran isn’t producing, there’s more harm in leaving him on their roster than to let someone younger and more deserving play. Of course if the team could trade that veteran, they most likely would. However since very few teams are going to be interested in taking on the salary, the only other reasonable option is to release the player.

Don’t get me wrong, some team is going to bring in Thomas pretty soon, knowing that Toronto will be fitting the bill on his 8MM salary this year. However Frank shouldn’t be expecting another big contract anytime soon. Toronto shouldn’t be in that bad of shape either; Adam Lind had a nice power stroke last season and should be solid as the team’s designated hitter. And by releasing Thomas, the “Big Hurt” on their payroll is now gone, freeing more money to lock up young pitchers like Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum. And as for Thomas, he’s a great hitter with a prolific career. When some team takes him on, he should bring his 30 home run bat back into the game. However Thomas is now finding out what Bonds (1.025 OPS in 2007) and Sosa (92 RBI in 2007) did last Winter; designated hitters are an easily replaceable commodity. There’s no sense in paying a hitter 8MM per season to only hit and not field. As Ken Rosenthal hinted on Friday, Ryan Howard could soon be facing this same situation soon.

Thomas is finding out what Bonds and Sosa did last Winter. (Getty Images)

A series of long term deals were signed today. Two of the main ones came from Toronto, in Alex Rios (6/65MM) and second baseman Aaron Hill (4/12MM.) In later news, Pittsburgh inked their closer Matt Capps to an extension through 2009. All of these deals contain valuable team-friendly options that can be exercised by the club, in some cases taking out years of free agency.

Everyone says that the Rios signing is a bargain in regards to other outfielder signings like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukodome. The main difference between Rios’ contract and the other players’ contracts is that the years covered in the other players’ deals are free agency years. A good chunk of the years in the Rios, Hill and Capps contracts are arbitration years.

When a young player signs a long term contract early on while he’s under control with the team (until he’s a free agent), this can clearly cut down on his earning potential. Players who go year to year often make out better in the end. However the one benefit that players get who sign early on is the security. If they get hurt, they’re still guaranteed the money. This was probably motivation for other team-friendly extensions for players like Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitzki, and James Shields. Granted all three of those players have expressed interest in remaining with their current employers, which always helps.

Milwaukee took the same approach with two of their young stars, that is Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Long-term contracts were offered by the clubs. As to whether the players accept, that’s another story. Fielder and Braun both shown that they can produce above-average at the Major League Level, and coupled with the fact that they’re not as often to get injured as other players (e.g. pitchers), they would probably be best going year-to-year with their clubs. In the end however, I still see them signing the deals (worth substantially more), since they’re most likely pleased with the direction that Milwaukee is heading.

Still in the end it all boils down to security. Rios finally broke out last year with 24 homers (he only hit 27 in his career before last season.) Hill had only nine career homers before hitting 17 last year. Capps got most of his saves last year in the second half. Teams are taking definitely chances with these signings, but in the end most of them work out. Still with this news out of the way, it’s good knowing that Tim Lincecum won’t be a Blue Jay anytime soon…

A couple free agents agreed to Minor League deals this afternoon; Shannon Stewart reunites himself with the team he grew up with, the Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston agrees to terms with free agent starter Bartolo Colon. I’m intrigued by each of the two signings. Some thoughts on each of the deals.

• I’m surprised that Stewart couldn’t fetch a finer offer. He had a great 2007 campaign, .290 with 12 homers and 48 RBI. His defense is still above average, and he should have landed a full-time job with any team. I expected the Padres to be more interested in him, with Mike Cameron leaving to play in Milwaukee. However, like Oakland, San Diego is apparently set with playing the youth in the outfield, with Chase Headley most likely being a starting corner outfielder after camp breaks. Like middle infielders, Toronto has a glut of outfielders. I’d expect them to deal Adam Lind because of these two reasons.
• The Colon deal surprised me, since I expected Theo Epstein to go after someone younger. Nonetheless this deal is a low-risk move for Boston. Colon shouldn’t be above Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester on the team’s depth chart, but he’ll basically provide the same innings that Curt Schilling would have provided. Colon comes at a cost the fraction of Schilling’s 8MM deal signed back in November. I like this move nonetheless, and I see Colon rebuilding his value with a solid 10-12 win season in 2008.
• So the big question with the Colon deal is whether this will impact the other remaining starters on the market. Obviously the first one that comes to mind is Freddy Garcia. Teams were expected to throw him a 16MM contract back in December, but then again his health was brought into question. Like Colon, Garcia will probably have to settle on a minor league deal to rebuild his value as a starting pitcher. And with Josh Fogg also off the market, the only remaining option left is Kyle Lohse, someone I’ve been humorously been poking at all off-season. He won’t get 10MM a year, but he looks incredibly foolish for turning down a 3yr/21MM deal from the Phillies. Still, he still has the cards in his hand. There are still teams that need pitching (e.g. the White Sox), and in the end he’ll most likely look wise for NOT accepting a minor league deal. I see him inking a Major League contract soon with a team desperate for pitching.

Face it, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a bad team. If I had to pick one of the MLB franchises that have been the worst over the past fifteen years, the Pirates would top my list. It doesn’t appear like they’re getting any better. They haven’t signed any key free agents outside of Chris Gomez, and have done little to address the areas of their problems. Some of their players are finally starting to address this as well (see Jason Bay.)

If there’s anything that new GM Neal Huntington is doing correct, it’s that he’s now starting to avoid wasting money on aging, useless free agents, a problem that’s been plaguing the franchise for some time now. They have some talented arms, as well as some talented bats, and they’re doing the right thing by keeping them under control for as long as they can with prudent contracts. Today was just more news of them moving in the right direction, with the team announcing that they gave second baseman Freddy Sanchez a 3 year/19MM deal. Technically it’s only two years, but the club has an 8MM option on his first year of free agency after 2009.

With all the news today about prospects and trades, I only thought it would be interesting to use this signing to discuss one of the worst trades that happened ten years ago between the Pirates and the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez is a fine second baseman for the Bucs, a perennial .300 hitter with a batting title already under his belt. He’s going to put up great numbers for some time now as well. All in all, he’s probably the best middle infielder to come up from their system since the team brought up Carlos Garcia.

I’d be surprised if anyone has this card.

Outside of a few Pirates fans, I’m not sure if many people even remember Garcia. Garcia came up with the Pirates in 1992, and stuck with the team since then. He had some great years for the team, until 1996 happened, when he was involved in one of the biggest blockbusters I can remember. The Pirates traded him, Orlando Merced and reliever Dan Plesac to the Blue Jays for three prospects now, and four to be named later.

When this trade happened, I expected the Blue Jays to benefit heavily from it. I thought Garcia would be the move that put them over the top. Wow, like many I was wrong. Garcia flopped, and was later gone by mid-season. The other two players had slightly longer careers, but didn’t make that much of an impact with the Jays. On the Pirates’ side, out of all seven players they got in the trade, none of them really made an impact as well. The key piece to the deal was a pitcher by the name of Jose Silva.

Silva was one of the crown jewels to come up in the Blue Jays system at the time. He was part of their fabled “big three", that is Silva and two other pitchers Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. The later two of the big three succeeded, big time. Halladay won the AL Cy Young award in 2003, Carpenter won it with the Cardinals in 2005. Could Silva have won the same award if he wasn’t rushed into the rotation, as the Pirates clearly did with him? It’s hard to tell.

If there’s anything about these blockbuster trades that are going on today, they’re involving prospects. Prospects may or may not pan out. The A’s got a handful of top prospects when they traded Nick Swisher and Dan Haren, Baltimore got a group when moving Miguel Tejada, Florida got the same after trading Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and of course Minnesota restocked the farm by moving ace lefty Johan Santana (or the best pitcher in the “universe” as Peter Gammons calls him.) Granted there were some players that were received as “MLB Ready” from the deals (e.g. Adam Jones, George Sherill and Luke Scott), but when a team receives a package of prospects, they’re essentially rolling the dice.

The success of a prospect solely depends on the team that’s controlling them. Some teams have better track records. Now would Hanley Ramirez be a super-star if he started out as a rookie with the Pirates instead of the Marlins, I still think he’d be the same. However some players won’t necessarily pan out if on a worse team, especially the younger pitchers.

In looking at the two teams who recently got a stash of prospects, that is Minnesota and Baltimore, it’s only recently that they’ve had luck with player development. When Tom Kelly was managing the Twins, young players struggled once they reached the majors. It seemed that after he left, player development took off, that is Johan Santana, Joe Nathan and even Francisco Liriano started to realize their talent. Baltimore’s case is different. Since their last winning season in 1997, Baltimore has struggled developing players from within their system. Still, it was something they never had to worry about, since most of their roster was acquired via checkbook. It was only recently that the team started putting an emphasis on player development, keynoted by the rise of Nick Markakis and Erik bedard.

In analyzing the two big trades, I’m looking at the prospects and where they’re going. If Adam Jones had went to the O’s back in 2000, I’d question if he’d even succeed. This Orioles team, though they haven’t won much recently, has improved their development. Jones should have a “coming out party” (to paraphrase PI) this year for the team. The same thing goes with Carlos Gomez, who probably had the best thing happen to his career by being traded to the Twins. In either case, I’m dying to see the analysis from the big Bedard trade, and how well people break it down. Tomorrow should be a fun day nonetheless.

I just caught this trade right now on FOXSports.com. It appears that the St. Louis Cardinals traded Scott Rolen to Toronto for Troy Glaus. I’m not sure if the deal is finalized, but I’ll discuss the fantasy implications thereafter. It would be a great deal for both teams nonetheless.

Update: The deal probably won’t be finalized until sometime on Monday, but it appears that it’s an even swap. Both players are the same age, and have each needed a change of scenery for various reasons. Glaus has great power (averaging about 27 HR a season), and would provide great protection for Pujols. Rolen has the better upside however. Toronto improved their defense nicely with this move, and he’ll fit in somewhere in the 5-6 spot in their lineup.

In regards to which team benefits most from the deal, we won’t really know until the season is over (if Rolen stays healthy the whole season Toronto could get the edge.) Assuming both players stay healthy, I’d project for 2008:

Rolen: .275/22/80/5
Glaus: .260/31/90/0

Given the fact that the New Year is here, overall it’s been slow between Christmas and now. Many people expected some move to be made, and mlb.com even ran a story on how the Giants usually make a move around Christmas time. I guess it wasn’t going to happen this year.

The only big move today was with Toronto resigning Reed Johnson for about 3.3MM for 2008. This move came as a surprise to me, as I’m not sure where Johnson plays in with the team. Though he was hit with the injuries last year, he’s still a solid .300 hitter if given 500 or so plate appearances. His best year was in 2006 when he .319 with 12 HR. He’ll be fighting for playing time with Adam Lind rising and the team acquiring David Eckstein earlier in the offseason.

There were smaller moves today. The Royals continued to strengthen their bullpen by acquiring Chin-Hui Taso and Baltimore made a minor acquisition in their outfield by signing Chris Roberson from the Philies. He’ll be fighting for a roster spot in Spring Training with the team.

The one move that stood out in the Johnson story was that that Toronto also acquired Lance Carter. Carter, a one time All-Star with Tampa Bay, could be a factor in their bullpen, which on the whole was very strong last year. The pitching staff overall had a very strong 4.00 ERA, second best in the AL.