Late Innings

I’ve been following the Roy Halladay sweepstakes closely. Today, the Blue Jays rejected an offer for their ace by the Phillies. As per MLBTR:

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that the Blue Jays have rejected the Phillies latest offer of Carrasco, Donald, J.A. Happ and outfielder Michael Taylor.

The Angels are out of it as well apparently:

(The Angels) were of the mind to remove themselves from the Roy Halladay talks, believing they were never going to come close to the Blue Jays’ asking price of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and a prospect such as outfielder Peter Bourjos.

The Blue Jays want both Joba and Phil Hughes in any trade with the Yankkes. And we have yet to see what the Brewers (the “darkhorse") are going to offer. With the non-waiver trading deadline a few days away, the Jays need to bring their demands. Take this offer that the Jays sent to Ruben Amaro Jr. for example: Kyle Drabek, Happ, and Dominic Brown. As BTBS points out, this trade would have gave the Jays a 36MM return on their investment. Yikes.

I know the Phillies want him, and the Jays have no reason to keep him. And I understand that going back to the World Series would be nice for the Phillies. But the Jays need to come down on their demands. Even if it’s ever so slightly.

Before kicking off this little rant (it’s obviously about Bill Bavasi in case anyone wants to stop reading), the Angels inked Ervin Santana to a four year extension worth 30MM. Just like that, the team wiped out any arbitration hearings this year, since they signed Macier Izturis earlier today. This deal also wipes out any more changes that Santana has to go to arbitration. He’s still getting paid well though. On an aside, I really wish Baltimore would have grabbed him, since the Angels were after Miguel Tejada. Santana’s 2007 numbers were clearly flukish. However Tony Reagins is a relatively intelligent general manager…

… unlike Bill Bavasi. Granted he’s not in office anymore, the Mariners axed him last summer. However his legacy looms on now. The one interesting move that happened yesterday was with the Mariners signing (their future closer) Josh Fields. Fields didn’t have to be signed by last August’s deadline, however they finally got this done. It seems that after Bavasi drafted the closer of his dreams, the team simply had enough and let him go a week later…

Any ways when this move first happened, people poked at them for drafting a closer. However now after the fact that Fields has signed, people are starting to wonder if Fields will be closing in 2009 for the Mariners… WOW.

Over the years, even with Bavasi in charge the Mariners still managed to accrue a good amount of young talent. Granted he dealt a lot of it away, but a good portion still remains. Regular readers to this blog know that I think they have a potential star in Phillipe Aumont, their 2007 pick. However I wasn’t too thrilled over the Fields pick.

Closers are the most overrated players in professional sports. Thankfully the demand for closers has come down, however they shouldn’t be paid more than 5MM a year, mainly since they only pitch in a third of the innings a front-line starter will pitch. Drafting a closer in fantasy baseball is a good strategy (you need three of them, with 90 saves in the process), however drafting a closer during the amateur draft is not. I’m not sure what Fields will bring to the table. Yes he has good stuff, but without control he isn’t going anywhere. Or as Sickels so wonderfully put it:

Stuff is here, but what about command?

QED. In other words, Fields will most likely end up becoming the next Dennis Sarfate. That is he’ll be a reliever who will end up striking out over a batter per inning, however a 6 K/9 ratio isn’t promising. A pitcher with a WHIP around 1.50 can’t be used as a starter or as a closer, as the Orioles saw last year when they tried to move Sarfate around.

The Bobby Abreu saga is for the most part over:

Free agent outfielder Bobby Abreu moved closer to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday morning, as the two sides discussed incentive bonuses that would sweeten his pending one-year contract with the club, a source told ESPN.com.

It’s believed the Angels are offering a one-year deal in the $5 million to $6 million range, while Abreu wants something closer to $8 million. So Angels general manager Tony Reagins and agent Peter Greenberg are trying to negotiate some incentive bonuses that would help bridge the difference.

I think my last three or so posts here poked fun at Abreu, especially how he sat around asking for a multi-year deal in excess of 16MM a year. However he waited too long, since the last 10MM a year deal was given out a few months back.

Abreu is great with his bat, and should stay away from the field. In other words, LA has other “Angels in the Outfield” that can grab a glove. The team still has the albatross of Gary Matthews Jr. around them, but he’s still a much better defender than Abreu. 5MM to 7MM is a fair deal for him (if he’s about 1+ WAR.)

Any ways what we’re seeing now is the market correcting itself. Players are now being paid what they’re worth on the open market. There’s no collusion going on here, the reason why? Demand for corner outfielders is down.

Kudos to Tony Reagins, he’s commandeered a brilliant offseason. And he’ll reap rewards this June when the Amateur Draft comes around, since (Type A free agents) Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and (Type B free agent) Jon Garland signed with other teams. Now Reagins can go for the hat trick if he can convince Adam Dunn to wear a first baseman’s glove, and get him to sign for 8MM a year in the process.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

One week after the Election in November, the Orioles are holding a Rally in Baltimore. One point that everyone’s speculating on is that the team will be unveiling a new uniform for the team. Could there be a new logo in store for the Orioles? That is could we be seeing a meaner bird? Hopefully a new logo will force its team to not play like shit each and every September…

The uniform change did some good for the Tampa Bay Rays in the off season last year. Gone was the neon green (as well as the word “devil"), and it was replaced with a more conservative navy blue look. The result, the team went from worst in 2007 to a MLB-third best 97 wins in 2008.

If you look good, you play good (Wikipedia.)

In regards to the World Series, Tampa Bay can still win this thing, even being down 3-1. The series will resume Wednesday, but luckily for the team they won’t have to face Cole Hamels the rest of the year, and won’t have to face bad strike-zones for Scott Kazmir. The two best bullpens in baseball will go at it on Wednesday in Game Five, and if Tampa can break the tie and pull it out they’ll be in good shape. Game Six sees a sharp James Shields going against an erratic Brett Myers, and Game Seven features the Matt Garza/Jamie Moyer rematch. Garza was clutch in Game Seven in the ALCS as well, and if I was Philadelphia, I’d push to win Game Five and end this series, just so I wouldn’t have to face Shields and (the ALCS MVP) Garza.

Angelic Options

Per RotoWorld:

Angels exercised outfielder Vladimir Guerrero’s $15 million option for 2009…Angels exercised RHP John Lackey’s $9 million option for 2009…Angels declined outfielder Garret Anderson’s $14 million option for 2009.

Again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make these moves.

Grading Trades

It was a year ago from this upcoming Thursday that the Tigers and Dave Dombrowski dealt a pitching prospect in Jair Jurjens and a young outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez for the All Star shortstop Edgar Renteria. Renteria struggled in 2008, posting an OPS under .700, and will most likely lead to the Tigers declining the team’s 2009 option. Hernandez meanwhile is one of the top hitting prospects in the Braves orginization (outside of the Jason Heyward, Jordan Schaffer mix), and Jurjens simply went on to go 13-10, 3.68 for the Braves in 31 starts, arguably becoming their staff ace throughout the season.

Back then Detroit got the upper hand with the trade, however it’s clear that the Braves won out in the long run. On an interesting close, here’s a great piece which does the same thing will all the trades that happened last off season.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

As I went to the shower, I checked ESPN’s MLB trade deadline blog and found that the Braves are shipping first baseman Mark Teixeira to the Angels. The Braves acquire their first baseman Casey Kotchman plus a minor league pitcher.

In offering a very quick analysis of the deal, both teams made out well. To analyze from both sides:

• The Braves: Granted they lost Teixeira, however they couldn’t have resigned him in the end. Kotchman is a great first baseman however, but he probably doesn’t have the upside that Teixeira has. However in the end this move will save them some money. The main reason the Angels were free to trade Kotchman was because he had no interest in signing a long-term deal; he preferred to go year to year through his arbitration years. Granted that in the end costs far less than it would to resign Tex. In addition to Kotchman, the Braves also acquire lefty Stephen Marek, so this is a solid haul regardless for them.
• The Angels: Granted this move comes with some strings attached, and unlike the Johan Santana trade, there is no negotiation window to sign a long term extension. Part of me believes that something will happen soon though between the Angels and Teixeira. The money they save by not resigning K-Rod and avoiding Kotchman’s arbitration costs will bankroll this extension. Still this move is very nice. The Angels have a dangerous right side of the infield, if you include their talented second baseman Howie Kendrick. However for them to be a dangerous team, they need to address the left side of their infield. It’s a shame that the Braves weren’t willing to take Gary Matthews Jr. in the deal.

The MLB non-waiver trading deadline is two days away, and I’m not sure what Baltimore is going to do. Last year, Andy MacPhail sat idle at the deadline, and waited until afterward when he could pass players like Steve Trachsel exposed through waivers to the Cubs. This year I’m not sure. The same thing can’t be done if he’s planning on trading Brian Roberts or George Sherrill…

Some news today that I’m disappointed to discuss, Roch Kubatko is leaving his position with the Baltimore Sun. From what I recalled on Rush Limbaugh’s program, the Sun was expected to lay off 400 of its employees. Roch took their buyout offer, and his last day is this Friday, August 1st. I hope he finds something he loves doing (hopefully MASN will take him in.) I love reading his blog. It was a great source of rumors, and he always did live coverage during the team’s Spring Training games, at a time when fans are at most craving baseball.

I read on a few rumor sites that the Astros aren’t done buying, and are looking for a solid middle reliever. Any ways this brings me back to the point, why didn’t they keep Dennis Sarfate (who went in the grab-bag of players to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada over the winter)? Any ways long story short, Sarfate is now going into Baltimore’s rotation, with Rhadhames Liz being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, and Brian Burres being demoted to the bullpen.

Burres, who admittedly has kept the game in most of his starts and is tied for the team lead with seven wins, is a “smoke and mirrors” pitcher (to paraphrase RotoWorld.) At the beginning of the season, his numbers are good. After about fifteen starts, when the league gets to obtain a handle on him, they start to deteroritate. The same thing happened to him last season, when he got knocked around like a pinata in September. As to how he’d fare in the bullpen, I’m not sure. He has shown the ability to get hitters out, and he probably would have a better career in the bullpen.

The move Dave Trembley made here was confusing, at least if Baltimore was in contention. Most people expected Burres to retain his hold on the rotation slot, however it doesn’t hurt to give Sarfate the try, considering the fact that he has much better stuff. His only downside is his control difficulties. He was a starter back in Milwaukee’s system, however when brought up he was a reliever. Still Sarfate is out of options, and Burres is not, so this move is surely worth a try. Sarfate gets the call this Wednesday against the Yankees for his first start.

As to what he’d do, I’m not sure. I was down in Baltimore on Friday last week, and I saw Sarfate incidentally relieve Burres in his start. Oddly enough when I sat down, Burres was out of the game, after allowing three homers in an inning and change to the Angels. Sarfate then pitched three scoreless, so was that a precursor to what just happened, I’m not sure. And in regards to their fifth starter, they don’t need one until Saturday, so I guess this is to be determined. Still, going off on a tangent here, I’m a big fan of the “all you can eat seats” promotion that ballclubs are doing. On Friday night, I put away eight hot dogs. In all fairness, this is why baseball is so great:

I paid for it in the end though.

The K-Rod Watch

At the game last Friday, I saw Francisco Rodriguez notch a save for the Angels. Tt was a two run lead, and he coughed up a solo shot to Kevin Millar though. I also watched the Angels/Red Sox game last night. When K-Rod came in, he was presented with a “platter save” opportunity (or a three-run lead.) He got the save, but gave up another solo home run to Manny Ramirez, who hit it just above the Green Monster.

I’ve stated before, Rodriguez wore down in the second half of the season last year, and as a result ended up with his highest ERA as a closer. From his last couple opportunities, could the same thing be happening here? As ESPN pointed out last night, after Bobby Thigpen saved 57 games, he wasn’t the same closer after that. K-Rod is on pace to shatter this record, and will be paid handsomely in the fall as a free agent.

Some advice for Mike Scioscia and the Angels, brought to you by me: preserve your closer. If the division is wrapped up in early September (which I’m expecting), throw some save opportunites to Scott Shields (whose salary is indicitave of closer money) or even Jose Arredondo, whom many think will be K-Rod’s successor after he leaves (K-Rod was groomed the same way when Troy Percival was around.) Granted, I know the Angels are wise enough to not pay K-Rod 15MM a year in the offseason, but still, this is no excuse to get every ounce out of their closer. Overusing K-Rod now will lead to bad bullpen implosions when it counts, that is in October. Then again what do I know…

UPDATE: Sarfate got torched in his start 7/30 against the Yankees.

The All Star game is minutes away on FOX, and after watching Josh Hamilton’s power show last night, I couldn’t be any more pumped personally. I just wanted to comment on the news of a pair of potential free agents for the Winter: Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez and Cardinals’ starter Kyle Lohse.

Starting with Lohse first, he was the subject of ridicule all off-season (me in particular.) We all saw the money that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners last winter (48MM over four years), and expected Lohse to receive the same from some poor team. It would have been fitting, considering that both were two one-time mediocre Twins pitchers. Lohse’s numbers were average with the Reds and Philies last year, and didn’t merit 12MM a year. The Cardinals and Dave Duncan, desperately needing starting pitching, brought Lohse in for 4.25MM. In the end, this move is paying off well for the Cards, considering the fact that Lohse has a 11-2 record with a 3.39 ERA. Scott Boras came out today saying that the door is open for the Cardinals for extension talks, however I see any extension from the Cards being highly unlikely. If Lohse wins 19, some team will give him 5 years, 60MM. And the Cardinals in the end will even look like more of a winner, after snagging those wonderful draft picks for next year’s Amateur Draft.

The other pitcher to come out saying that he’ll test the market is K-Rod. He wasn’t happy about the arbitration process he went through in the Spring, only being awarded 10MM. That money is paying off for the Angels, considering the fact that Rodriguez has 38 saves already (ten more than the second place closer, Baltimore’s George Sherill.)

Regardless of how much money he’ll get in the offseason, will he be worth the years or dollars, I can’t tell. He fell apart in the second half last season, and his ERA was the highest he’s ever had in a full season. Hamilton clubbed a walk-off shot off him last week, and could that be the signal of a second half decline? We’ll have to see come the Winter, as to whether fatigue sat in to him.

Looking at the closers who got the big money recently, if I had to pick three closers I’d give the money to comfortably, I’d take the following:

1. Joe Nathan (12MM per year)
2. Mariano Rivera (15MM per year)
3. Brad Lidge (12.5MM per year)

and three I wouldn’t take:

1. Eric Gagne (10MM per year)
2. Francisco Cordero (11.5MM per year)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (10MM per year)

I’m just not comfortable with K-Rod, who appears that he’ll break down any minute now. There could be other closers I’d lump in the second (breakdown group): B.J. Ryan (10MM) or Jose Valverde (7MM) being two more. Still in the end, K-Rod will get the record money, and this post will be a mute point. Investing 15MM in a relief pitcher who throws 65 innings is like investing 45MM in a starting pitcher who will throw 195 innings; the mathematics say that it doesn’t make any sense. Still if I had that money and had to give it to a closer, I’d chose Nathan hands down. Rivera would be a good reliable second choice, and I also think that Jonathan Papelbon will be as well. He’s only making 700K this year, and wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. Yeah he’s outspoken, but he’s good. In three years, he’ll be breaking K-Rod’s record closing salary.

The final two arbitration cases were settled yesterday. One player won his, the other lost. On the whole, the clubs were 6-2 this season in arbitration hearings. To offer my odd analysis on the two cases:

• Mets SP Oliver Perez to make 6.5MM in 2008. On the whole, with a few rocky spots here and there, Perez had a fine 2008 season. 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA, and he’s still striking out a hitter per inning. Perez should probably benefit from having Johan Santana on the staff with him. John Maine is an incredibly solid #2 starter.

  Perez has been as inconsistent as any pitcher that I can recall, especially with his time as a Padre and a Pirate. Perez’s 2004 season was the equivalent of the season Scott Kazmir had with the Rays in 2007. If Perez repeats, he will have an incredible payday come the offseason.

  Great young starting pitchers know that they’re in demand. The Santana contract changed the market. C.C. Sabathia already called off contract talks and is expected to become a free agent after 2008. Perez is doing the same. Sabathia could get 20MM from a team, and Perez is hoping to get at least 16MM per season. It’s very rare that starting pitching like this will hit free agency, but had it not been for the Santana contract, the Indians and Mets would be doing everything in their power to offer extensions to these two young starters.

• Angels RP Francisco Rodriquez to make 10MM in 2008. If we all got the Ryan Howard prediction wrong, we weren’t going to lose on this one as well. Rodriguez slipped in 2007, and he was asking for 12MM for 2008. There were very few closers outside of Mariano Rivera whom he could make comparisons to, and the three abritrators didn’t buy it.

  In all fairness, for a team to offer a closer 10MM per year, that’s a huge committment. Closers only throw 75 innings a year max. That’s a third of what a front-line starter hurls. So going by basic mathematics, if Rivera is worth 15MM based on his new contract, does that mean that Santana is a 45MM a year pitcher? Alex Rodriguez couldn’t be too happy about that.

  As to whether K-Rod signs a long-term deal with the Angels, that’s yet to be determined. It would be to his advantage to sign one though now. He’ll have some competition for the large contracts after the 2008 season is over from other top-closers like Joe Nathan, Brandon Lyon, Brad Lidge, Eric Gagne, Brian Fuentes, Joe Borowski, Todd Jones, Jason Isringhausen and even Trevor Hoffman. Yikes. No wonder Rafeal Soriano signed that modest extension from the Braves a month ago. Not that many teams have 10MM per year to throw around to a closer.

With about one week to go, I wanted to cycle through the remaining list of players and how their arbitration cases panned out. So far there have been four hearings, and the clubs have defeated the players in all four of their cases. I’ve personally never sat through an arbitration hearing, though I’ve talked with people who have (Paul White from USA Today in particular.) On the whole it’s not a nice process, and clubs try their hardest to avoid arbitration hearings since it generally leads to bad relations between the player and the clubs. Any ways my thoughts about what’s going on, starting with the four settled cases:

• Jose Valverde gets 4.7MM from the Astros: This case was interesting since Valverde and the club were roughly 1.5MM apart in figures. The case could be made why Valverde didn’t get his 6.2MM since his 2006 season was horrid. 2007 was his first breakout season as a closer, however he was hoping to get a figure that Washington’s Chad Cordero got a month back. Cordero has a better history as a closer, however it won’t be long before Valverde gets his 10MM per season payday.
• Chien-Ming Wang gets 4MM from the Yankees: I didn’t understand why the team and the player couldn’t meet in the midpoint, considering the fact that they were only 600K apart. Wang has won 38 games the last two seasons, however struggled for the Yankees in his playoff starts. Going forward for the Yanks, Wang should be projected to be a #3 starter, falling in after Joba Chamberlain and Phillip Hughes. Still the whole process most-likely hurts any relations that existed between Wang and his team.
• Brian Fuentes gets 5.05MM from the Rockies: He lost his closer job last season, however on the whole he is still a very good middle reliever. He could get save opportunities in 2008, building up his case when he hits the free agent market to hopefully get closer’s salary.
• Felipe Lopez gets 4.9MM from the Nationals: His 2005 season was outstanding, and he started running well in 2006, stealing 44 bases. He swiped 24 last season, however his numbers were down on the whole. If he rebounds, he should get a nice payday come 2009 when he’s a free agent.

With Erik Bedard agreeing to the midpoint at 7MM with the Mariners, and Brandon Phillips signing a 4yr/27MM deal (great move by the Reds), there aren’t too many remaining players who have cases impending. There will be at least two more in particular (and maybe two more on top of that):

• Francisco Rodriguez - LAA He’s seeking 12.5MM for 2008, while the club is offering 10MM. It’s unlikely that the midpoint will be reached before this week’s hearing. I expect Rodriguez to walk after the season as a free agent.
• Ryan Howard - PHI For a first-year player eligible, Howard is seeking 10MM while the club is offering 7MM. Howard should attempt to settle at the midpoint, since he will most likely lose his case before the panel this week as well.
• Oliver Perez - NYM Perez and the Mets are about 1.8MM apart in figures. There has been rumors of him seeking a long-term deal with the Mets, however he’s a free agent come season’e end, and he would probably be best to wait until the season is over to sign anything, assuming he repeats with good form in 2008.
• Mark Loretta - HOU Houston is waiting the outcome of this case to determine how much money they’ll have remaining to sign another starting pitcher. Loretta is seeking 4.9MM, while the club is offering 2.8MM. Like all the cases, I see the arbitrators siding with the club here, unless Loretta can state the same argument that got David Eckstein his absurd 4.5MM contract from the Blue Jays.

With the new year fast approaching, and the Winter Meetings now weeks past us, and with most of the marquee free agents being signed, I thought I might put together a series of top five lists to share with everyone, at least in regards to my reactions with all the happenings. Please note that this list could change (pending on the Kyle Lohse signing.)

The Five Best Free Agent Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez inks a 10yr/275MM deal with the Yankees— Out of all possible signings, this one is the most important. Rodriguez was the team’s MVP in 2007, putting up one of the greatest statistical seasons in baseball history (it was the baseball equivalent of the season that Tom Brady is currently enjoying.) Granted it’s a great deal of money, but judging by the rate that player salaries rise it could be a good deal. Regardless ARod is a constant producer, and he’ll be a New York Yankee until he retires.
2. Andruw Jones signs for 2yr/36MM with the Dodgers—Yes this move did push Juan Pierre from CF to a corner spot, but Dodger fans can only hope that Matt Kemp and Andre Either can push Pierre from a corner spot to the bench.
3. Aaron Rowand signs a 5yr/60MM deal with the Giants—Many people vilified this contract, I love it. The Giants need an experienced bat in their lineup, which has more holes than Swiss cheese (especially at the corners.) Rowand, though he didn’t get the money that he was seeking, gives them veteran leadership that’s needed heavily on the young team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25 HR again.
4. Ron Mahay signs a 2yr/8MM deal with the Royals—He got the hefty money, but he’s left-handed, he has great numbers, and he can be easily dealt again in two years for prospects (a la Octavio Dotel.) This signing is good for the Royals for so many reasons, one it complements their already strong bullpen.
5. Jose Guillen signs a 3yr/36MM deal with the Royals— Granted he has a suspension coming, but he will put up monster numbers in 2008 for the Royals (along with Alex Gordon.) .300/30/115 is not out of the question for him. Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell’s resigning in Boston

The Five Worst Free Agent Signings

1. Torii Hunter for 5yr/90MM with the Angels—The Angels outbid their opponents by about 15MM for Hunter. 90MM for a player with (albeit slowly) declining numbers, into a position where they have a plethora of talent (outfield), I see no sense in this signing.
2. Carlos Silva signs for 4yr/48MM with the Mariners—I’ve made my statements about this signing; the M’s could have better spent the money.
3. Scott Linebrink gets 4yr/19MM from the White Sox—The Pale Hoes need to get younger fast. This is not how to do it. Linebrink got off to that great start last season, then collapsed after the trade to Milwaukee. Yet he still gets the money, go figure.
4. Kaz Matsui gets 3yr/15MM from the Astros—Way too much money here. This still doesn’t bring in starting pitching.
5. David Eckstein gets 4.5MM from the Blue Jays—Toronto has a glut of infielders, so what do they do, they bring in a more parts. It’s hard to believe that Eckstein was originally seeking a 3yr/27MM deal at the start of the offseason. Yikes. Honorable Mention: Any team that gives Kyle Lohse more than 35MM

The Five Best Personnel Moves

1. San Diego extending Jake Peavy—This move shows the team that if players want to stay here, the front office will do whatever it can to keep them here. This mentality is a win-win for both sides, showing that small-market teams can compete.
2. Kansas City not signing Carlos Silva—They had a 3yr/30MM deal out there, but it was rejected by Silva. They should be glad that this happened.
3. Baltimore signing pitching coach Rick Kranitz—He was the most sought-after coach on the market, working well with the young Florida pitchers. He now has a huge task on his hand.
4. New York Yankees in General—They retained their core nucleus, minus Joe Torre, but they bring in Joe Girardi, who could potentially be the best thing that happened to the team recently.
5. Bob Melvin getting his contract extended—A wise move by the Arizona brass. This team has the talent to easily compete through the length of his extension, and they couldn’t have a better manager at the helm to lead the charge. Honorable Mention:Kansas City’s new energetic manager, this team could surprise

The Five Biggest Trades

1. The Arizona/Oakland Dan Haren trade—The Diamondbacks have a scary one two punch now, but the A’s will be very happy that this trade was pulled two years down the line (I can’t wait to see Carlos Gonzalez play.)
2. Florida and Detroit’s blockbuster—Detroit wins now, Florida wins later. That’s how the story always goes with the Marlins.
3. The Delmon Young Deal—On paper, both Tampa Bay and Minnesota made out well. However the Twins get the better end of this deal. Though Matt Garza will be good for the Rays, Young will make the Twins fans want to forget about Hunter.
4. Mildedge being traded to the Nats—Something tells me that the Nats will have a nice #2 hitter in 2008. Nothing against Ryan Church or the catcher involved in the salary dump.
5. Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros—Tejada’s value has dipped, and give Baltimore credit for getting what they could for him. Scott will be a beast going deep, and if any of the other pitchers break out this trade will look nice for Baltimore. The first thing Houston needs to do now is extend Tejada’s contract ASAP. Honorable Mention:Edgar Renteria going to the Tigers, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers (opening up Jay Bruce for the Reds), Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox (I don’t understand this deal on the Angels’ behalf)

The Five Biggest Trades that Didn’t Happen (yet)

1. Johan Santana— In regards to all the complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox only getting richer after this trade will be made, it should be noted that these two teams have the talent to satisfy the Twins front office’s appetite. It’s not a matter of “if” anymore.
2. Erik Bedard—Equally as hyped as Santana, if not as in some markets, Baltimore will also command a hefty package for their left-handed ace. Kudos to Andy MacPhail for waiting for the best package to come in.
3. LA Angels acquiring Cabrera, or Tejada,…— or anyone for that matter. This team got a little older during the offseason (literally.)
4. Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum— Kudos to Toronto for at least attempting this trade proposal, it never hurts. If Ed Wade was out in San Francisco, he would have definitely pulled the trigger.
5. Brandon Inge— Immediately after Miguel Cabrera was acquired, Inge immediately demanded that he be traded. Many teams have glaring third base problems. Sure he might look good playing the hot corner for the Phillies or the Giants, but many would think that he’ll look good catching again for the Tigers in 2009, after Ivan Rodriguez departs as a free agent. Honorable Mention:Joe Blanton or any Athletic with trade value

The Five Teams with the Best Offseasons

1. Detroit Tigers— They’re built to win, now. Their lineup is scary. D-Train will be back in ace form, just watch.
2. New York Yankees— No real subtraction, the core talent is still there and was retained (albeit a high cost.) It will be exciting to watch their young pitching triumvirate perform in Hughes, Kennedy and Joba (whether or not all three of them are in New York.)
3. Minnesota Twins— Given tight expenses, they continue to make smart move after smart move to counter this. They’ll have a new-look infield in 2008, and Delmon Young will be a 30HR stud.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks— Their rotation is even more solidified, bullpen strengthened (I’d take Qualls over Valverde) and they gave confidence to the team by extending their manager’s contract. Let’s watch this young offense now grow.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers— New manager who knows how to win, talent all around the outfield, infield and rotation. They don’t really need a front-line starter, they have a few. It will be fun to watch the young talent blossom (Looney, Kemp, Billingsley, et al.) This team will surprise and win. Honorable Mention: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals

The Five Teams with the Worst Offseasons

1. Florida Marlins— It will be a long year down in Miami.
2. New York Mets— Still haven’t made any major move, and currenlty have question marks in the rotation and outfield (with the departures of Mildedge and Glavine.)
3. Los Angeles Angels—They got older in the outfield and the rotation, and did little to address the power-outage at the hot corner (as they’ve been hyping for some time now.)
4. Oakland Athletics— The white-flag was risen. I’d hate to be a fan now. If this was 2010 this would be another story.
5. Houston Astros— Bad signings and trades of their pitching will have this team buried in their division come May, especially with the rest of the NL Central improving. Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves