Late Innings

And I haven’t written anything in it in months…

I promise I’ll start using this more often for fun.

Lots of things on my mind I’d love to talk about, like Rich Lederer and his odd man-crush on Jered Weaver, and that super-cool statistic known as xFIP. I clearly want to do a comparison between Weaver and Ricky Romero, and give my $0.02 as to who should start the All Star game in Anaheim this year (and no, I’ll argue that it shouldn’t be Weaver since he hales from the host city.)

Yep.

–Mike

In case anyone was living under a rock today, Matt Holliday was traded today, from the A’s to the Cardinals. Billy Beane and Co. receive a plethora of prospects.

Packing your bags for Big Mac land. (AP Photo)

I thought about this trade deep and hard, like a porn star would. Any ways the following is my (albeit drunken) analysis of this blockbuster… initially off the bat I thought this was a win for the A’s. Heck I thought the Brett Wallace swap for Holliday was a steal for the A’s, but Beane also got two prospects as well, a potential 4th outfielder and a potential 4th starter.

Now Wallace, that had me scratching my head… coming into the season, Sickels gave him an A- rating in his list of top 20 Cardinals prospects. He’s got good talent, but he’s clearly regressed. He might not be fit for long term at third (got Hillary Clinton thighs), and is probably going to be shifted across the diamond. He is major-league ready, but is clearly blocked behind some dude named Albert. He’ll fit in well in Oakland.

If he hits better than another St. Louis prodigy to come to Oakland (e.g. Daric Barton), then this deal is a win for the A’s. Using the Victor Wang chart I’ve alluded to yesterday, Wallace is going to be worth something close to 20MM over the course of his tenure as an A. In other words this is an easy win for Beane. Now if Wallace hits super-stardom, then this is grand theft. For the meantime though, I like this deal for the Cards. He makes Albert and Tony happy, adds some punch to their lineup, and can be used to grab a couple draft picks in next year’s draft (assuming they offer the free agent arbitration and he declines.) In the long term though, I like Oakland… actually this trade is an easy win for the A’s.

Now with the Cardinals upgrading their team, will the Brewers trade for Roy Halladay? Any ways back to drinking…

The Blue Jays were soooo close to making some noise this winter:

Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera has agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the Oakland Athletics, who also are closing in on a deal with veteran infielder Nomar Garciaparra, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Monday. Cabrera, 34, will replace Bobby Crosby as Oakland’s starting shortstop. Cabrera hit .281 with eight home runs and 57 RBIs and stole 19 bases for the White Sox last year.

On the whole I like this move for the A’s, it’s a shame that they still have Bobby Crosby on the roster however. Still as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts it, they just spent 4MM to bump themselves up from an 82 win team to an 83 win team. For them to see true value on this signing, they’ll need to unload Crosby’s 5.5MM that’s owed to him this year, and in our current economy, that’ll be tough to do.

Speaking of the economy, that’s the main reason as to why the Blue Jays have been so dormant this offseason. I don’t know any other team who had a bad winter. They lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, and won’t get the Type A luxury that the Angels do, since they also signed (Elias higher) Mark Teixeira. All four other teams in the division have improved themselves by at least two Pythagorean wins in my opinion. Granted the AL East is a nasty division to play in, but you need to at least make some moves to make up for those that you lost.

Bill Madden of NY Daily News brought up a nasty topic for debate today:

The rumblings already have started. With three years to go in the basic agreement, baseball’s owners are once again sounding the flashpoint “c” word - as in salary cap. But this past week, events in Oakland and Miami - where a new stadium plan for the A’s was pronounced dead and one for the Marlins once again put on life support - may leave the owners no choice but to revisit another ominous “c” word: contraction.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer fired back with a assuaging rebuttal:

Look, the A’s and the Marlins both have serious ballpark/revenue woes. No question about it, and Madden does a good job enumerating those woes. But it’s a massive leap from “needing” a new ballpark to the c-word. For one thing, both the A’s and the Marlins have, in recent years, been competitive. We’re not talking about the St. Louis Browns here. We’re talking about one franchise that won 93 games three seasons ago and another that won 84 games just last year. I mean, seriously: these are the two teams that might disappear?

And Craig Calcaterra put the icing on the cake this afternoon:

Well, I think he’s right again here. But even if those obstacles were hurdled, wouldn’t it make more sense for the owners to sit around a table and figure out how to help ailing franchises rather than kill them? My assumption is that the Marlins’ and A’s owners would demand something akin to the market price + hassle charge in order to give up their franchises. I’m also assuming that, since Bud has cultivated a very chummy ownership group, they’d get at least that much. So we’re talking in the hundreds of millions here.

I remember the last time we had the contraction debate, and it was a decade ago. The teams thrown up were the Twins and the Expos. And naturally of course, everyone then had their own mock contraction drafts. That is with the first pick in the draft, teams were salivating over taking Vladimir Guerrero. If we’d contract the Marlins and the A’s, that talent would have to be divvied up both at the big club (e.g. Hanley Ramirez) and the minors (e.g. Trevor Chahill.)

I find it odd why Madden chose these two teams. The Marlins were above .500 last year, and the A’s have been perennially contending under a tight budget with Billy Beane. Besides, the A’s have been gearing themselves into contention, having signed Orlando Cabrera (at a small 4MM) this afternoon.

If baseball needs anything, contrary to what Madden believes, it’s that it needs more teams. And I’m referring to the major markets. New York could use another team, or hell two or three. Granted the Steinbrenners will fight this to the bone however. And since they’re the only party that doles out the major contracts, the players union would naturally be in similar disagreement. Any ways this brings us to our current stalemate.

Long story short, there were a flurry of moves made today. I’ll analyze each of them, however I wanted to talk about the big signing of the day, that is the Angels signing free agent closer Brian Fuentes.

Fuentes will get 8.5MM in 2009, and 9MM in 2010. There’s also a 9MM vesting option for him in 2011, based on the number of games that he finishes while as an Angel. As to whether this is a player option or team option, I’ll keep checking Cot’s.

I know many of the “saber"-friendly people hate the signings of closers, that is they value them at 5MM a year or what not based on the marginal revenue that they generate, I like this signing big time. Fuentes in my opinion was the best closer on the market. He’s far more durable than Francisco Rodriguez, and was outstanding in 2008. Fuentes was also an All Star in 2007.

The Angels paid Rodriguez 10MM in 2008 (as determined through a losing arbitration case), and they’ll essentially save 1.5MM in “closing costs” going forward. The market for closers has clearly dropped, however I was shocked about the option years between the two elite closers. Rodriguez’s option year is valued at 17.5MM (and is guaranteed after certain stipulations are met.) Fuentes’ is half of that. Again I cannot reiterate enough how good this signing is for the Angels. The main reason why, their stellar bullpen from last season is kept intact. Jose Arrendondo remains the top set up guy, and if Justin Speier can return to form and if Scott Shields remains effective, things can’t be any better for them. Now they just have to address that hole at first base…

In regards to free agent compensation, the Angels will have to surrender their first round pick in next year’s Amateur Draft now to the Rockies, who offered the Type A free agent salary arbitration, which Fuentes rejected. Things are incredibly complicated with the Angels and free agency, since they lost two Type A free agents so far in Mark Teixeira and Rodriguez. Since Teixeira was ranked higher by Elias than Rodriguez, the Yankees will be sending their first round draft pick to the Angels in next year’s draft as well.

Fuentes saved 111 games over the last four seasons for the Rockies. (David Zalubowski/AP)

Update (Mon 12-15): This still didn’t happen, and I jumped the gun on the ESPN report. The two teams are still haggling over how much Milwaukee should chip in, though Cameron at 10MM is by no means being over-paid. Bill Hall and Kei Igawa are also rumored to be in the trade.

According to ESPN, the Yankees acquired center fielder Mike Cameron from the Brewers for Melky Cabrera. This move will save the Brewers 10MM, who picked up Cameron’s 2009 option earlier in the off-season.

Simply put, I love this move on the Yankees’ behalf. Given Cameron’s defense and his power, he’s worth well-more than his salary. Cabrera could blossom in Milwaukee, and that could possibly occur. They have him under team control for four more years.

With C.C. Sabathia gone, apparently Doug Melvin has no qualms about trading friends of the former pitcher. Next on the list I expect to move is Bill Hall, guaranteed 16MM over the next two years.

Cameron hit .243 with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs in 120 games with the Brewers in 2008.

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?

Update: it’s a two year deal for about 10MM to 11MM. There’s an option for a third year, so the total value of the contract could be worth 18MM. On an aside, I predicted three years, 18MM a while back, so I’m right on the money here with my guess.

ESPN is reporting that the Oakland A’s and second baseman Mark Ellis agreed to a multi-year contract extension (there were rumors in Buster Olney’s blog yesterday.) He was set to become a free agent after the World Series ended. Ellis is one of the premier defensive second baseman in all of baseball, however his bat regressed in 2007: hitting .233/12/41. He stole 14 bases though, and this was the first time that he reached a double-double for his career. He hit a career high 19 homers in 2007.

I predicted that the Cardinals would have signed Ellis this winter, since they clearly need middle infield help. Billy Beane however didn’t let him get out onto the open market. The A’s have a glut of young second basemen, that is Eric Patterson, Jemile Weeks, Adrian Cardenas… Ellis still is a good fit however, since the later two aren’t MLB-ready and Patterson can play just about anywhere. On the whole this is a good move by Beane, and I like the signing. I’ll post terms and value of the contract once that news surfaces.

Some minor news from today, but I’ll drop a comment on each piece.

• The Diamondbacks acquired Adam Dunn from the Reds for three players, one being minor league pitcher Dallas Buck. I’ll keep my analysis short and sweet. This is a great move on Arizona’s behalf. Granted they’re only getting two months of Dunn, however they aren’t giving up too much. If Buck is the centerpiece, then this doesn’t look like much of a haul for the Reds. Buck has had his share of injuries (he had Tommy John I believe immediately after being drafted two years ago), but it’s still too early to see where he’ll project in their rotation. Nonetheless, the Diamondbacks will get two first round picks for Dunn after he leaves as a free agent in the winter. Dunn has thirty two long balls, and the D-Backs finally get that much needed pop.
• Speaking of much needed pop, the Rays placed rookie Evan Longoria on the 15-day DL with a broken wrist this afternoon. Though break for Tampa Bay, especially since they failed to acquire Jason Bay at the trading deadline, and also placed Carl Crawford on the DL as well today. Granted he’ll be back, and even though Willy Aybar had his multi-homer game yesterday, he’s still not a viable option. And for the record, I take back what I said in the great Longoria v. Alex Gordon debate (I made a mistake here.)
• Texas places closer C.J. Wilson on the DL, and he’s out for the year. He’s been ineffective of late as well, and that’s presumably because of the injury. Eddie Guardado gets the save opportunities here. Any ways, Wilson will have some more time to blog at least.

I was going to give out my “Midseason Awards” tonight, however I was at the bar, drinking and drinking, and drinking and drinking. Any ways news broke about an hour ago about the Phillies acquiring right-handed starter Joe Blanton from the A’s for three minor league players. The Phillies didn’t cough up Carlos Carrasco, however they lost second base prospect Adrian Cardenas (I know, the A’s also acquired Eric Patterson a week ago in the Rich Harden deal from the Cubs.) Cardenas is a great pickup, since Patterson can move to the outfield (like he did earlier in the season.) They also got outfielder Matt Spencer and pitcher Josh Outman. Cardenas is the clear centerpiece of the deal.

I was thinking Cardenas could go if the Phils were to make a move at Erik Bedard, however Pat Gillick opted for Blanton instead for two reasons. One reason, he won’t cost as much as Bedard in the long run, and has a better health record. Secondly, he’ll be under team control for a year longer than Bedard (Blanton is a FA in 2011, Bedard in 2010.) Blanton had a rough first half, 11 losses with a 4.98 ERA, however he should prosper in the NL. Expect a .500 record, with a 3.80 ERA and 220+ innings going forward. Rotoworld projects Cardenas as a .300 hitting second baseman with 15 homers, assuming they don’t resign Mark Ellis (which given Patterson and Jemile Weeks, who went in this year’s amateur draft.)

In the end Blanton is a good pick up for the Phillies, and should complement Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer nicely. Brett Myers should go to the pen, where he is highly effective. The As’? They’ve been bolstering their pitching with the trades up until this, however now have some bench depth. Billy Beane does well again in my opinion, since I think Cardenas will do well in Oakland. They have some great bench depth as well (Patterson and Matt Murton to name a pair.) Cardenas should be up for them in late 2009, and the open spot in the rotation, bring on Gio Gonzalez! Note to Beane, Gonzalez is clearly ready to pitch in the majors. So far, this appears to be a balanced trade.

More Mailbag Crap

I got an email the other day before the All Star break from Steve in Baltimore. Basic question:

What do you think Baltimore will do before the trading deadline?

Yikes that’s a generic quote. Any ways I wrote back to him with the following, and it depends on how well the team is playing come 7/31. An interesting piece today in the Baltimore Sun from Peter Schmuck. Baltimore went into the break on a skid, and as a result Andy MacPhail could start the rebuilding process once again, which was put on hold as the Orioles were strangely enough winning (they were four games over .500 just recently.)

MacPhail’s activity at the trading deadline depends solely on the team’s play over the next 12 days or so. They’ve got a tough schedule (leading currently against the Tigers), and if they’re 10 under .500 at the deadline, expect Brian Roberts and George Sherrill to be dealt for prospects. If they’re .500 or better, I expect MacPhail to keep the team together for kicks. They’ve got a tough schedule however, and with 40% of their rotation out of gas and struggling (Garrett Olsen and Radahmes Liz), the team could fall out of the Wild Card race in a hurry. Granted, I’ve grown attached to players like Sherrill over the past few months, however if they can make the team better in the long run, I wouldn’t mind if they were traded. The status of this team and the trades solely depend on their play during the next crucial weeks of July.

I was watching some interesting pitching this week. The notable starter that came to my mind was Rich Harden, who made a nice debut in Chicago yesterday (5.2IP, 0ER, 10K.) Had the bullpen not blown the lead in the ninth for him, Harden would have gotten the win for the Cubs in his debut (the team ultimately came back in extra innings for a 8-7 win over the Giants.) I also saw Mark Mulder make his season debut this week against the Phillies. He looked sharp for the first batter he faced (freezing Jimmy Rollins on a 89mph pitch), however he then walked the next two hitters, and then walked back to the disabled list shortly after that.

This week we saw two pitchers make their season debuts for their teams. Each team invested heavilly in their respective pitcher as well, and still aren’t sure what they’re going to be getting. We all know the heapload of prospects that Walt Jocketty sent to Billy Beane in Oakland for Mulder (Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.) After Mulder hit free agency a couple of years ago, he chose to go back to St. Louis instead of accepting other offers, like from Cleveland. It’s safe to say that the results of the 14MM that he received from the Cardinals back in 2006 have been disappointing. His curve isn’t exactly the same beauty pitch that it was in 2003, and his fastball barely hits 90 anymore.

Harden yesterday looked solid. His fastball was in the low 90s, however the movement on his pitches made Giants hitters look foolish as they swung through the majority of his 10 strikeouts (then again they’re not the best of hitters. You would have thought that Mariano Rivera was on the mound throwing his cut-fastball.) In either case, as to what the Cubs should expect from Harden, the jury is still out. Is it safe to say that Sean Gallagher will accumulate more wins in the next five years than Harden? Yeah that’s possible (so far it’s Gallagher 1, Harden 0.)

Looking at the trades that Billy Beane has made in Oakland, he rarely ends up a loser in his deals. Does he know more on the pitchers than the other teams do? Not sure, however he’s taking good advantage of the “sell high” notion of when to move pitching, something Andy MacPhail did when he moved Erik Bedard to the Mariners. Still the one thing that I’ve been seeing is that teams are now starting to follow Beane’s stategy when it comes to starting pitching, which is to simply use each pitcher to their fullest.

There are a few starters that come to mind now, Brandon Webb in Arizona, Cole Hamels in Philadelphia and Jeremy Guthrie in Baltimore. These three hurlers are on pace to throw 240 innings. They’re not bad innings either, considering the fact that each starter has an ERA no worse than 3.50. However teams are starting to suck their pitchers dry, especially while they’re under control of the teams very cheaply (arbitration years in particular.) It’s to a pitcher’s advantage when they hit free agency however, since they’ll most likely receive a healthy contract. However, buyer beware for the new team, since these hurlers accumulated so many innings before they hit their prime years.

Am I suggesting that C.C. Sabathia is going to break down after he signs this offseason? I’m not sure, however he’s thrown so many innings himself, and looking back at workhorses who received large contracts (Kevin Brown in particular), they’re prime for a breakdown in media res of the contract. It’s an interesting strategy that Beane’s doing in Oakland. There are so many benefits for having the pitchers throw seven or eight innings instead of six. For one, there’s a lesser dependence on the bullpen needed. In today’s state, if a pitcher throws five or six innings, the manager will then turn over the reins to each of his specially-aligned bullpen chips. If the starter is looking sharp in the sixth, let him go that extra inning or two.

Before 2005 or so, Oakland had its “Big Three” running very well. Tim Hudson ate quality innings for the A’s, and was then spun to the Braves. He at times has been superb, and at times has looked worn down. Everyone knows the Mulder story, especially since he was a big-innings eater for the A’s. Barry Zito? When he hit free agency in 2006, Scott Boras sold him as a highly-durable starter. That claim is correct, since Zito threw at least 200 innings in all of his full seasons in Oakland. The first year of his 126MM contract with the Giants, he threw 196.2. Could the same fate exist for starters like Haren, Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Blanton, and even (the AL ERA-leader) Justin Duchscherer (who’s looking more like an eight inning starter each time out?)

Fact: Zito threw 9 CG from 2000 to 2003. Since then he has yet to throw another. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The only pitcher who seemed to escape the wrath of Beane was Aaron Harrang, who achieved success after leaving to Cincinnati. In the end however, Chicago got a very good pitcher in Harden. However as I said before, Lou Pinella and his staff need to use him meticulously. Harden should be a five/six inning starter tops. They have the deep bullpen, and other starters are there to eat the innings that Harden can’t (Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly being two.) Still the five innings that the Cubs will get from Harden are probably the best five innings that they can get (just ask the Giants hitters.) Harden won’t be a rental for the Cubs, since his 7MM club option for next season will more than likely be exercised. And if the Cubs want to get the most from him, like all pitchers that have escaped Beane’s pen, the Cubs will need to handle Harden with serious care.

One day after the Brewers get C.C. Sabathia, the Cubs just acquired Rich Harden from the Athletics. They also acquired Chad Gaudin, who should now finally start after being banished to the bullpen in Oakland.

Billy Beane and the A’s make out equally well. They acquire Sean Gallagher, who should immediately be thrown into their rotation. They also acquired underrated outfielder Matt Murton, talented infielder/outfielder prospect Eric Patterson (brother of Reds’ Corey Patterson), and catching prospect Josh Donaldson. The three prior players are all MLB-ready players for Oakland.

A few days ago, I speculated that Gaudin could be traded, having been banished to the bullpen in April albeit pitching well for the A’s. There have been rumors of Harden moving to the Cubs, and I didn’t expect the move to happen so quickly. When Sabathia was moved to the Brewers, I labeled Milwaukee as my favorite in the division. This trade suddenly changes things. Yes Harden has injury problems, however when he’s dominant he’s one of the best in the game. The Carlos Zambrano/Harden pair equally matches up well with the Sabathia/Ben Sheets duo for the Brewers. And Gaudin, a very strong and healthy arm, easily gives the Cubs depth to replace Gallagher.

Even though Oakland is well in the thick of things, this trade doesn’t overly hurt them. Even though they lost their dominant ace in Harden, they still have All-Star Justin Duchscherer to lead the rotation. Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Joe Blanton round out the rotation. The A’s also get some bench depth with this move.

Any ways this move came as a surprise, and now it’s time for the Cardinals to make a move… the ball is clearly in their court.

Again a great trade for both teams. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Frank Thomas has landed a gig as an Oakland Athletic, another young starter made his Major League Debut, and Bill Bavasi made a move that put the Mariners back another ten years. Granted I went into a deep discussion over the Krivsky firing, however there were plenty of interesting stories that occurred throughout the week. Time to recap this odd week in baseball:

Frank the Tank Time in Oakland

Late this week, Billy Beane did the inevitable, which is reacquire Frank Thomas for the A’s’ playoff push. The team is playing great baseball (I’ll touch on this later), however the offense is going through a power outage right now. At the time of the signing, the team only hit ten homers (that was one more than Chase Utley has all by himself at the time.) Thomas will help. And at a prorated portion portion of the league minimum salary (400K), this signing is a steal. It’s no wonder why the move only took a couple of days to do.

In regards to which DH will better suit the A’s, it’s tough to question between Thomas and the All Time Home Run King (that is Barry Bonds.) Bonds is decorated and has the numbers, however so does Thomas. Plus he doesn’t carry the baggage that Bonds has. Thomas can still hit; he’s a career .300 hitter in the 500 home run club. Some of the other hitters on the Oakland staff don’t have as nice of a resume as Thomas has. The team dumped Dan Johnson, has to tolerate the monster strikeout totals from Jack Cust and Travis Buck, and currently has Mike Sweeney handling the DH duties. This move is exactly what Oakland needed. For fans keeping score at home, put a star by Beane’s name.

Young Starters Have Their Day

I usually highlight when a young pitcher makes his debut here, and there are two young arms worth talking about currently. Oakland has Greg Smith, whose currently on a roll right now. During Spring Training, he was matching fellow pitching sensation Gio Gonzalez pitch per pitch. In four starts so far, he’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He’ll most likely be the victim to be sent back to Triple-A once Rich Harden returns.

Justin Masterson was dominating Double-A for Boston, pitching to a tune of a 0.94 ERA. He was sent back to Portland yesterday, however he made a stunning debut in place of Josh Beckett:

Unheralded Aces

There have been a series of pitchers who have been delivering quality starts all season long for their teams, but have had little run support to show for their efforts. Felix Hernandez should be 5-0, however he only has two wins due to bullpen implosions and poor support. He has a stellar 1.67 ERA. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was matched up against King Felix twice, and both games were pitching duels between the two starters. He’s currently winless, though has also been pitching well all season (he went into the eighth in his last start.)

One last starter who seems to be on the short end is Matt Cain of the Giants. He’s also winless on the season, though was unfortunate to be involved in a traditional 1-0 game with the Giants in his last start out. Whatever run support that the Giants muster tends to usually go to Barry Zito, and that isn’t working too well.

Zannen Desu Ne

The Mariners could be in an interesting situation now. They are sitting on a heap of young talent, which they don’t exactly want any part of with the team’s current makeup. A good reason behind this is the team’s General Manager Bill Bavasi, who in recent years dealt talent like Rafeal Soriano and Adam Jones. He also signed his share of bad free agents. Granted I am eating a healthy plate of crow now since Carlos Silva is pitching well, however there have been many bad contracts that have damaged the team and have left fans scratching their heads.

You can add this latest one to the contract heap. Yesterday afternoon, the team extended catcher Kenji Johjima by another three years. Granted Johjima isn’t hitting now, but he does have some power. Then again so does Jeff Clement (the team’s #1 prospect according to Baseball America.) If the deal was worth the total value of his first contract (15MM), it still would have been a bad move. However with this new deal, Johjima is getting 24MM over the timespan. Ouch (on an aside, the headline translates to how unfortunate.)

The Boys of Summer Are Back

Last night was the opening night in the Atlantic League, if anyone is interested. Some of the best non-affiliated professional baseball can be seen in these games.

Hot and Cold Starts

We’re one month into the season, and there have been some teams that have surprised and got off to good starts. There have also been some disappointments. Baltimore, Oakland and Florida are all playing well and are high in their divisional standings. Baltimore has got its share of timely hitting, Oakland has received sensational pitching, and the Marlins hitters know how to mash. Will these three teams be as good as they are come May, it’s hard to tell.

It’s hard to call the Texas Rangers a disappointment, however at 8-16, they’re not doing anything right. Granted they have a deep farm system (fourth best in baseball), but they have no pitching. It’s a shame that Ron Washington will most likely take the blame for this disaster, he’s one of the nicest managers in all of baseball.