Late Innings

The market for oft-injured middle relievers “with upside” took a hike today. Joaquin Benoit signed a large deal with the Tigers: 3 years for 16.5MM (that compensation could go up to 19.5MM.) Everyone should know the story about Benoit by now… he was out all of 2009 with rotator cuff surgery, bounced back in 2010 as a minor league signing by the Rays, gave up 9 earned runs in 60.1 innings during the season, and just broke the bank with his signing.

Benoit has been on and off throughout his career, and while his ERA (1.35) and WHIP (0.68) were sparkling last season, there have been some signs that these numbers might be flukey, particularly his .201 BABIP. He missed bats, with over 11 K/9 while waking roughly 1.6 per nine. Again those numbers were bolstered by that BABIP… historically Benoit averages around 8 K9 and 3.5 BB/9.

But like any big contact for middle relievers, some risk is present. Joe Paw summed it up nicely:

Benoit might be good, but his injury history and unsustainable 2010 numbers suggest that the Tigers have overpaid.

So with this all said, this brings us to Koji Uehara, a Japanese import who signed a two year, 10MM deal with the Orioles back in January of 2009. He was brought in to start, but spent roughly one out of three days as an Oriole on this disabled list with a wide array of injuries (everything from heat fatigue.) The Orioles saw that and decided that he was best to serve out of the bullpen in 2010, and after Buck Showalter took over in August, he was the team’s dependable closer.

Enter the 2010 offseason, and with teams throwing around money pretty wildly (particularly the Tigers), Koji could be set to cash in this winter. His numbers were sparkling in 2010 too: 11.25 K.9, 1.0 BB/9. He had the best K/9 ratio of any pitcher over 40 IP last year, and had the best K/BB ratio as well (even besting Cliff Lee.) And unlike Benoit, these numbers are sustainable
, especially as buoyed by his .317 BABIP in 2010. It’s not like Koji walked anyone in Japan either.

So this brings us to the question… how much will he get this season? When the season ended, I predicted Koji grabbing a two year deal worth around 6MM. The Benoit deal upped this number somewhat. Factors will be involved in the next contract for him, such as whether he’ll close or how many years he’ll get. For total compensation, the highwater value was set by the White Sox with Scott Linebrink (4/19MM.) Brandon Lyon did ok last year too (3/15MM.) For a team in need of a dominant late innings reliever, Uehara is a much safer investment than Benoit. However thanks to the events that transpired today, his asking price just got a little higher.