Late Innings

The whole day there were trade winds bowing about a possible Jason Bartlett/Nolan Reimold swap between Baltimore and Tampa Bay, and my guess is that these winds were coming from Fangraphs. Yes, if this was to go down as is, this would be a heist on Andrew Freidman’s end. However this tweet from R.J. Anderson blew the lid off of this thing:

Reimold has nearly a 15% walk rate over his last 500 PA in Triple-A. Hold me.

Anderson, who writes for Fangraphs, also writes for DRaysBay, a website which is determined to raise enough money to purchase a one-page print ad in a St. Petersburg newspaper thanking Carl Crawford for his service as a Ray. Seeing any conflict of interest here? In either case, outside of Tampa, that aformentioned tweet is interpreted as the following to the rest of the nation:

Reimold FAP FAP FAP 15% walk rate FAP FAP FAP in Triple-A. FAP FAP FAP. FAP FAP FAP!!!

Thankfully ESPN’s Jayson Stark put the wooden stake through this superfulous rumor:

Trade that would have sent Jason Bartlett from #Rays to #Orioles for Nolan Reimold falling apart. “Not happening,” says one source.

The deal fell through since Freidman was clearly trying to fleece Andy MacPhail and the Orioles. A Bartlett/Reimold swamp would have been bad enough, however Friedman also requested (their one time closer) Alfredo Simon. Still not enough? How about Matt Weiters? FAP FAP FAP.

Yes the market for shortstops this winter is bleak, and the Rays do have some leverage with the negotiations here, however they do have a few things working against them:

• Bartlett is four years older than Reimold and is a free agent after the 2011 season.
• The Rays, unlike the Orioles, are under stringent payroll constraints, and Bartlett is expected to make north of $5MM in 2011.
• The Rays want to find everyday playing time for another talented shortstop, Reid Brignac.
• Bartlett’s 2009 season (a 5.0 WAR player according to FanGraphs) was fantastic, however his 2010 season was abysmal.
• Bartlett was a non-tender candidate earlier.

The evidence is pointing to the notion that Baltimore has more leverage in this situation than the circle jerk of staff writers at FanGraphs would have you believe. Tampa Bay needs to move Bartlett, and Baltimore would be right to start a trade around the least valuable (or most replacable) of parts, middle relievers. That’s what they did with yesterday’s Mark Reynolds trade (and if Arizona is smart, they’d stretch David Hernandez out so that he’d be a starter. That’s my guess as to what they’ll do, but that’s another story.)

In either case, for all the Baltimore fans out there who were disheartened with the trade winds today, and the casual baseball fans who were easily depressed as thinking a heist was going to happen, don’t believe everything that you read on FanGraphs, or from Anderson, or even Tokyo Rose for that matter. If this was pre-MacPhail Baltimore, this trade might have went down. However looking back at Baltimore’s most-recent trades, they’ve usually worked out to be fair for both parties at worst.

People have been asking me lately why posts here have been few and far between lately… long story short I’m a programmer and have been taking on a few side projects lately. One interesting project that I did (which went live today) was a pretty nifty tracker for MLB Trade Rumors which shows all of the 2010 free agents (ranked by Elias) and whether or not they’ll be offered arbitration by their previous teams.

Any ways check out this tracker here.

The market for oft-injured middle relievers “with upside” took a hike today. Joaquin Benoit signed a large deal with the Tigers: 3 years for 16.5MM (that compensation could go up to 19.5MM.) Everyone should know the story about Benoit by now… he was out all of 2009 with rotator cuff surgery, bounced back in 2010 as a minor league signing by the Rays, gave up 9 earned runs in 60.1 innings during the season, and just broke the bank with his signing.

Benoit has been on and off throughout his career, and while his ERA (1.35) and WHIP (0.68) were sparkling last season, there have been some signs that these numbers might be flukey, particularly his .201 BABIP. He missed bats, with over 11 K/9 while waking roughly 1.6 per nine. Again those numbers were bolstered by that BABIP… historically Benoit averages around 8 K9 and 3.5 BB/9.

But like any big contact for middle relievers, some risk is present. Joe Paw summed it up nicely:

Benoit might be good, but his injury history and unsustainable 2010 numbers suggest that the Tigers have overpaid.

So with this all said, this brings us to Koji Uehara, a Japanese import who signed a two year, 10MM deal with the Orioles back in January of 2009. He was brought in to start, but spent roughly one out of three days as an Oriole on this disabled list with a wide array of injuries (everything from heat fatigue.) The Orioles saw that and decided that he was best to serve out of the bullpen in 2010, and after Buck Showalter took over in August, he was the team’s dependable closer.

Enter the 2010 offseason, and with teams throwing around money pretty wildly (particularly the Tigers), Koji could be set to cash in this winter. His numbers were sparkling in 2010 too: 11.25 K.9, 1.0 BB/9. He had the best K/9 ratio of any pitcher over 40 IP last year, and had the best K/BB ratio as well (even besting Cliff Lee.) And unlike Benoit, these numbers are sustainable
, especially as buoyed by his .317 BABIP in 2010. It’s not like Koji walked anyone in Japan either.

So this brings us to the question… how much will he get this season? When the season ended, I predicted Koji grabbing a two year deal worth around 6MM. The Benoit deal upped this number somewhat. Factors will be involved in the next contract for him, such as whether he’ll close or how many years he’ll get. For total compensation, the highwater value was set by the White Sox with Scott Linebrink (4/19MM.) Brandon Lyon did ok last year too (3/15MM.) For a team in need of a dominant late innings reliever, Uehara is a much safer investment than Benoit. However thanks to the events that transpired today, his asking price just got a little higher.

People have been asking me to write stuff in this blog, and I’ll start doing that. Just need a good category…

News item: the Marlins trade All Star second baseman Dan Uggla to the Braves for All Star Omar Infante and reliever Mike Dunn.

I’ve been seeing the reactions from everyone, and there seems to be accord. This is for the most part an underwhelming return on the Marlins’ star second baseman, especially since the Marlins are trading within their division nonetheless. Uggla presumably would have been a Type A free agent after the 2011 season, and the Marlins (assuming they offered him arbitration) would have received some draft picks.

I’m not sure whether the fish are going through a fire sale right now or not, but the past few days they’ve decided to build their bullpen via acquisition:

• Trading SP Andrew Miller to the Red Sox for Dustin Richardson
• Trading Cameron Maybin to the Padres for Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica
• Uggla to the Braves for Dunn

And it’s not like they haven’t taken this route before:

• Trading First Baseman Mike Jacobs to the Royals for Leo Nunez
• Trading SP Rick VandenHurk to the Orioles for Will Ohman

So as a result of this dealing spree, the Marlins are incredibly weak up the middle, but should have a rock solid bullpen which should close out 35% of the games that they’ll win. The Braves get a great middle-of-the-order bat who should prosper in Turner Field. And the Padres get a (cheap, team-controlled) talented outfielder who should easily be an upgrade over Tony Gwynn Jr. And the Tigers still have Miguel Cabrera, who should garner a few votes in the MVP ballot (announced next week.)

I’m not really sure what’s going on in Florida, but I’m glad not to be a Marlins fan. And I wonder what the asking price is on Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, not that I’m kicking tires or anything…

Grand Theft Second Baseman

And I haven’t written anything in it in months…

I promise I’ll start using this more often for fun.

Lots of things on my mind I’d love to talk about, like Rich Lederer and his odd man-crush on Jered Weaver, and that super-cool statistic known as xFIP. I clearly want to do a comparison between Weaver and Ricky Romero, and give my $0.02 as to who should start the All Star game in Anaheim this year (and no, I’ll argue that it shouldn’t be Weaver since he hales from the host city.)

Yep.

–Mike

I know it’s been over three months since I’ve written anything of relevance in this blog… but I’m back wishing everyone a Happy New Year. I apologize for the hiatus; life gets in the way.

People have been emailing me for reactions to all the winter moves and trades, particularly the Cliff Lee and Carlos Silva trades in particular. Ha my opinions are along the same lines as the Craig Calcaterras and Dave Camerons of the world… it doesn’t take a degree in nuclear physics to analyze the trades that happen. But if I’ll write in here if something interests me, I promise.