Late Innings

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

Do you read FanGraphs?…