Late Innings

When I get a topic, I usually cover it ad nauseum. In that case, I wanted to delve more into the Matt Hobgood drafting by the Orioles. Was it a signability issue? I’m not sure. We’ll never know.

I was reading Keith Law’s piece today, and he was criticizing the Pirates for taking Tony Sanchez at #4. The Pirates had their pick of high school arms to go after, like Jacob Turner, Zack Wheeler and Tyler Matzek. They instead chose a catcher with little upside. I saw somewhere that if he hits .250 with 12 homers they’ll be happy (honestly that’s not bad production in my book.)

Last year the Pirates broke the bank and took Pedro Alvarez. The main similarity between this year is that both players were advanced college players, with Alvarez from Vanderbilt and Sanchez from Boston College. The same thing applies to Brian Matusz, whom the Orioles paid out 3.4MM to after drafting him fourth last year. The main difference between Matusz and the three aforementioned high school arms is that Matusz was highly advanced, coming from the University of San Diego (not to be confused with San Diego State where Mr. Strasburg came from.) He’s currently ready to be moved to Double-A Bowie.

Most of the top picks from last years draft were from college, with exception to Tim Beckham and Eric Hosmer. This year it seemed it was high school heavy talent.

I’m not Joe Jordan, but I can understand why he took Hobgood. High school arms can go many ways. Granted Rick Porcello is an interesting (and successful) case, but the franchise has been burned before by taking high school arms (e.g. Adam Loewen.) Hobgood has a plus fastball and a plus slider, but he needs to develop a breaking pitch. The Orioles don’t need him immediately, but he might be an interesting option four years from now.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. The Porcello contract set a bad precedent, and now the flood gates have opened with more and more high school arms who can dial into the high 90s seeking big money. The slot recommendation doesn’t matter, and even with it being dropped 10% due to the economy, Scott Boras will hold out until his clients get the top dollar possible.