Late Innings

The right side of the Orioles outfield looks fantastic. It’s athletic, fast, and will be running down many a fly ball. Couple it with an above-average Felix Pie (at least a 2.0 WAR player), and the outfield is one of the best in baseball. Jones, Pie and Markakis could all be center fielders, however Jones is the deep man, with the other two guys flanking him on each side.

Jones is having a great Spring, as is Markakis. Both players have expressed their desire to run the bases more in 2009 as well, and I’d expect more stolen bases from them. Markakis, being arbitration-eligible for the first time, got a new six-year contract two months back. Jones is looking forward to salary arbitration at the end of this season. In either case, both players should be plating similar numbers in 2009:

2009 Markakis Projection: .315 AVG, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 105 R, 18 SB, .395 OBP, .505 SLG

2009 Jones Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 27 SB, .345 OBP, .465 SLG

I have strong projections for both players, and wouldn’t be surprised if both players stole more bases in 2009. Markakis’ RBI dropped last year, however his walks and OBP rose. He got on base more, and as a result, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora each drove in over 100 runs. Markakis’ home run totals dropped last year, but he slugged nearly 50 doubles. Markakis should be fine, and I expect him to be better this year, especially since he’s cutting back on his strikeouts.

In regards to Jones, I don’t expect him to exhibit the same level of patience that Markakis has, but I expect him to be above-average as well. The average centerfielder has a .780 OPS. Many projections have him around there, I have him at .810. I think Jones will be great in 2009, and while the power hasn’t quite developed yet, he’s still a very useful late-round draft choice. While Markakis is a fourth round draft choice this year, I expect Jones to be in the fifth or sixth rounds in 2010.

Jayson Stark of ESPN also agrees. He has Jones and Markakis on his All-Bull Market team.