Late Innings

I got a few emails today about a few players people want to see me project (yes I’ll get to Oliver Perez in due course.) Here’s one I wanted to project quickly yesterday, but got too drunk to write about.

Warning, he got a new contract. (source delawareonline.com.)

Now I know what everyone’s thinking… the Phillies’ front office locked up Howard until he’s a free agent, and people expect his production to curtail? I don’t see it that way. Yes his OPS has dropped off linearly (from 1.084 in 2006, to .976 in 2007 to .882 in 2008.) Will this trend continue? Not exactly, I think he bottoms out here.

Yes his peripherals suck, but he hits home runs still (150+ during his full three seasons) and drives in runs to make Jon Heyman happy.

2009 projection: .265 AVG, 600 AB, 52 HR, 145 RBI, .895 OPS, Strikeouts aplenty, 35 SB

Just kidding about the steals, however Howard is going buck wild this spring. But did anyone notice that he hit four triples in 2008! Willy Taveras stole about 70 bases last year and only reached half that total.