Late Innings

There has been tons of talk lately about Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State pitching prospect who can hit 102 on a radar quite often. I’ve seen the videos of him pitching, the 23 strikeout game, the dominance over the Dutch, he looks good… however is he the best pitching prospect to come along in the past 15 years, or is this another drumming up from the PR Machine of the Scott Boras Corporation?

Oddly enough, Jon Heyman hasn’t chimed in, however ESPN’s Buster Olney got things started with this glowing blog entry a week back:

So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year’s draft?

“The best I’ve ever seen,” says a longtime scout. “And it’s not even close.”

C’mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal – tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You’re saying he’s better than what Prior was then?

“Easily,” says the scout, over the phone. “I’m telling you, it’s not even close.”

In other words, if Strasburg was on the free agent market this winter, he would be comparable to A.J. Burnett, who landed a 82MM contract with the New York Yankees back in December. However that wasn’t the case, and he’ll enter the 2009 Amateur Draft, most likely as the top overall selection, which is held by the Washington Nationals. However the ever-exciting Scott Boras caught wind of the aforementioned ESPN piece, and brought up his own idea on the price tag of this talented pitching prospect: 50MM in total compensation over six years.

As Dave Cameron reminds us, the record for total compensation of an amateur selection is held by Mark Prior, who got 10.5MM. Mark Teixeira is second with 9.9MM and David Price is third with 8.5MM…

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In looking at a comparable to Strasburg, I would definitely suggest Price. Both pitchers have clear #1 ceilings, however Strasburg has considerably more zip on his heater (though Price is known to hit trips in his as well.) ESPNs’ Keith Law disagrees, and says that there is no comparable to this pitcher. Jim Callis of BA tones down Olney as well:

Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he’s not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there’s little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.

John Sickels also has a few remarks himself:

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I’ve received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn’t pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

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With that stated, Strasburg is a fine talent, but at the same time he is mortal. In all fairness I could see him getting 10MM guaranteed next year, maybe 12MM, from whomever drafts him. 50MM? That could be a little too far fetched. Now with Washington having the top pick in the draft, could they take him first overall, knowing that Boras has these grandiose plans in place for his top pitching prospect? If they don’t take Strasburg, the next best available player (Grant Green) also has Boras “advising” him.

This isn’t the first time that Boras has thrown a wrench into the Amateur Draft. Boras represents Matt Wieters, and he fell all the way down to the #5 spot, where Baltimore gleefully took him (giving him the 6MM signing bonus he demanded.) Teams were reluctant to grab him due to the fact that Boras was his advisor (ask the Pirates how they like Daniel Moskos.) Could the same thing happen with Strasburg this year?

Given the fact that the Nationals lost out on Arron Crow, I’m sure they’ll take Strasburg with the #1 pick. And I do see them signing him, for reasons they they were unable to sign Crow and Teixeira. It won’t take 50MM, but in any case it’ll blow the slot recommendation out of the water.

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So what will be the outcome of the 2009 Amateur Draft? Simple. The owners will be pissed, primarily at Boras. As per their CBA, which expires in 2011, a team has control of a player for the first six years of his Major League service time. In half of those years, the player has leverage over his salaries (via arbitration), and the team has the other half. Now there are other factors which can influence things here (e.g. Super Twos), however when a player is given a Major League contract after he is drafted, this changes the leverage considerably. Take Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. He signed a Major League deal with the Indians back in 2002, and the contract didn’t expire until last year. Guthrie wasn’t arbitration eligible, so the team gave him the maximum pay cut, and he’ll make around 600K in 2009.

If Strasburg is to get that six year, 50MM Major League deal, the Nationals would all but certainly push him into their 2010 rotation right out of Spring Training (there’s no sense in paying him that money to remain in the minors.) He’ll serve out his six years, then get another monster deal once he becomes a free agent at the end of his 2015 season. Boras would love this scenario, but in this economy, I think we’re getting a little far ahead of ourselves here… but if this does happen, expect another labor/ownership holdout in 2011.