Late Innings

There was a piece up from Ken Rosenthal today, speaking about the Phillies and Adam Eaton:

The Phillies released right-hander Adam Eaton with $9.15 million on his contract earlier this spring, but they’re apparently unwilling to make the same move with outfielder Geoff Jenkins, who has $8 million left on his deal.

Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies’ first-year GM, is in the perfect spot to lobby for Jenkins’ release, one rival executive said — the club is coming off a World Series title, and Jenkins, like Eaton, was signed by Pat Gillick, the team’s previous GM.

Phillies president and CEO David Montgomery, however, is unwilling to “eat” a combined $17.15 million, another source said. Evidently, Montgomery drew the line with Eaton.

Apparently Montgomery is still hungry, since he’s ready to now eat the money due to Jenkins:

Just got word that the Phillies have released outfielder Geoff Jenkins.

Does this mean Gary Sheffield is on his way?

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said he would talk later.

To update everyone’s score cards, Sheffield, Jenkins and Eaton are out. Gary Matthews Jr.? My guess is that he’s the next to go. 34MM is a lot of coin to swallow here, however he’s currently the Angels fifth outfielder. The same theory could also be applied to the Dodgers and Juan Pierre, also in year three of his massive deal.

The right side of the Orioles outfield looks fantastic. It’s athletic, fast, and will be running down many a fly ball. Couple it with an above-average Felix Pie (at least a 2.0 WAR player), and the outfield is one of the best in baseball. Jones, Pie and Markakis could all be center fielders, however Jones is the deep man, with the other two guys flanking him on each side.

Jones is having a great Spring, as is Markakis. Both players have expressed their desire to run the bases more in 2009 as well, and I’d expect more stolen bases from them. Markakis, being arbitration-eligible for the first time, got a new six-year contract two months back. Jones is looking forward to salary arbitration at the end of this season. In either case, both players should be plating similar numbers in 2009:

2009 Markakis Projection: .315 AVG, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 105 R, 18 SB, .395 OBP, .505 SLG

2009 Jones Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 27 SB, .345 OBP, .465 SLG

I have strong projections for both players, and wouldn’t be surprised if both players stole more bases in 2009. Markakis’ RBI dropped last year, however his walks and OBP rose. He got on base more, and as a result, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora each drove in over 100 runs. Markakis’ home run totals dropped last year, but he slugged nearly 50 doubles. Markakis should be fine, and I expect him to be better this year, especially since he’s cutting back on his strikeouts.

In regards to Jones, I don’t expect him to exhibit the same level of patience that Markakis has, but I expect him to be above-average as well. The average centerfielder has a .780 OPS. Many projections have him around there, I have him at .810. I think Jones will be great in 2009, and while the power hasn’t quite developed yet, he’s still a very useful late-round draft choice. While Markakis is a fourth round draft choice this year, I expect Jones to be in the fifth or sixth rounds in 2010.

Jayson Stark of ESPN also agrees. He has Jones and Markakis on his All-Bull Market team.

Larry, a.k.a. Chipper Jones gets a new contract today:

Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves agreed Tuesday to a $42 million, three-year contract extension through 2012, a deal with an option that could become worth up to $61 million over four seasons. The agreement virtually guarantees that the 36-year-old Jones will play his entire career in an Atlanta uniform.

I saw the news about this late last night, and was spending the whole evening trying to think of a dollar amount. Yes, 42MM is well below market value, and I expected it to be closer to the 54MM that Ryan Howard got from the Phillies this year. On the whole I love this move, and am glad to see that Jones will remain with the Braves for the rest of his career. I know he’s injury prone, but over the last two years, he’s been worth 15 WAR. Good god.

I got a few emails today about a few players people want to see me project (yes I’ll get to Oliver Perez in due course.) Here’s one I wanted to project quickly yesterday, but got too drunk to write about.

Warning, he got a new contract. (source delawareonline.com.)

Now I know what everyone’s thinking… the Phillies’ front office locked up Howard until he’s a free agent, and people expect his production to curtail? I don’t see it that way. Yes his OPS has dropped off linearly (from 1.084 in 2006, to .976 in 2007 to .882 in 2008.) Will this trend continue? Not exactly, I think he bottoms out here.

Yes his peripherals suck, but he hits home runs still (150+ during his full three seasons) and drives in runs to make Jon Heyman happy.

2009 projection: .265 AVG, 600 AB, 52 HR, 145 RBI, .895 OPS, Strikeouts aplenty, 35 SB

Just kidding about the steals, however Howard is going buck wild this spring. But did anyone notice that he hit four triples in 2008! Willy Taveras stole about 70 bases last year and only reached half that total.

Alfredo Simon is apparently the Orioles’ fifth starter after tonight’s line against the Mets. Through six innings of one run ball, Simon now has a sparkling 1.13 ERA. For someone who was late to camp with visa issues, he’s putting on quite of a show. Now the dilemma that arises is that… he has options. Brian Bass and Hayden Penn do not, and if exposed to waivers will most likely be picked up. My suggestion, put Bass in the “deep end” of the rotation, Penn in the, um ‘pen (hahaha, I fucking, haha) and Adam Eaton back on the open market. Problem solved, and team ERA saved.

The nightly update writer at RotoWorld might disagree:

Simon appears likely to land in the rotation with his ERA sitting at 1.13 over 16 innings. Still, he’s a pretty horrible bet for the season. Simon has never had any success outside of A-ball, and his career ERA in Triple-A is over 6.00.

Man that was harsh. I’ve been studying Simon pretty hard since he’s been in Baltimore, and heck, even wrote this intelligent, intoxicated essay.

Clay Buchholz is out in the cold, in regards to a rotation spot in Boston. The rotation is stacked, with Theo Epstein bringing in affordable veterans Brad Penny and John Smoltz. However Buchholz is an injury away from a spot at the back end of the rotation. Of course, if Tim Wakefield gets hurt, or starts out ineffective, Buchholz will get a chance to prove himself again.

Last year was a wash for Buchholz, though we could possibly have attributed it to his breakup with Erica Ellyson. As a result, he went 2-9 with a 68 ERA+. Ouch.

2009 Projection: 10W, 155.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 137 SO (7.95 K/9), 41 BB (2.38 BB/9), 1.29 WHIP

Sorry, Buchholz is too good of a talent for me to give up on. I think he’ll rebound in fashion in 2009, and be right behind Jon Lester in the 2010 rotation. He’s clearly making his case this spring as well, giving up only one earned run in 19.2 IP. He has 15 SO to go with that as well.

The Scott Boras Corporation comments on the Steven Strasburg situation:

The Nationals do indeed have history on their side. The precedent has long been set that $10 million is the ceiling. The leverage is very limited for these amateur players since no other league is comparable. If college players don’t sign, they can return to college and hope for better a year later, or they can go to an independent league. None in the past have tried playing overseas, or even using that as leverage, but nothing can be ruled out in this once-in-a-generation case.

Boras apparently caught wind of the stories circulating last week regarding Strasburg, and apparently likes what people are speculating. For him to snag 50MM for an amateur client is a win win for the mighty agent. This is clearly an aggressive piece from Boras. Boras fires this warning shot about Strasburg as follows:

A couple top collegians represented by Boras have declined to sign after being selected and offered million-dollar bonuses, including J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek. But only rare players such as those two have the fortitude to try it.

Boras essentially states that Strasburg will break all sorts of records with his signing. He’s going to get his money, good economy or bad. Or as he puts it in closing:

The Nationals have the money (Ted Lerner has been estimated to be baseball’s richest owner at about $4.5 billion, though in this falling economy it’s difficult to gauge anyone’s true net worth), and they certainly have the need. But they also have history on their side. That history says amateur players get $10 million tops. Strasburg should beat that figure. But the question is by how much.

Is it just me, or is having Scott Boras in charge of MLB rumors considered a conflict of interest?

It’s Fast Projection week here at Late Innings. I’ll try to run through as many projections as I can before Opening Day starts. Any players you want projected? Send them my way and I’ll do my best to get them up.

The Tigers’ Opening Day starter regressed slightly last year, after winning 35 games his first two years of his career. His fastball tailed off last year, to an average speed of 93.6 MPH (after being around 95 MPH the first two seasons.) Could that be the reason why his WHIP was high (1.40) or that his BABIP (.305) was its highest it has been in his career?

2009 Projection: 13 W, 210.0 IP, 3.85 ERA, 65 BB (2.78 BB/9), 175 K (7.50 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

Verlander was a fourth round pick in many fantasy drafts last year, and he disappointed in all formats. I’ve seen him go in the fourteenth round (on average) in some drafts. In other words, Verlander is a solid buy low candidate. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland is impressed with what he’s seeing from his ace this Spring.

The Tigers, if kept the way they are, should be a team that scores around 800 runs, and wins about 83 games, even with the pitching staff in disarray as it is. However a fire sale (due to the poor economy) would change everything. If that happens, the wins and offense in Detroit would take a hit, and that would in turn suppress the number of wins that Verlander will achieve in 2009.

Peter Gammons of ESPN wrote about the Dodgers 21 year old starter today, currently slated as their #3 starter. RotoProfessor smells breakout with this pitcher, as do I:

2009 Projection: 14 W, 195.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 208 SO, 75 BB, 1.35 WHIP

He’ll be the ace of the Dodgers come 2010.

Update: RP is projecting Kershaw to have 190 SO this year at a 12% rate. I think that probability is much higher than many believe… seriously. Edison Volquez whiffed 206 hitters last year. Who saw that happening?

Due to a few trades (e.g. Matt Holiday) and injuries, Hamilton is suddenly a first round fantasy draft choice. He went twelfth in my one league (auto-picker took him for me the day I was hungover.) Yeah the Rangers have a beast of a lineup, and it’ll look even better for them in 2009 than it did last year. Hamilton is just coming into his game, and I expect his speed to raise his status even further.

2009 Projection: .299 AVG, 41 HR, 135 RBI, 110 R, .395 OBP, .555 SLG, 17 SB

You heard it here first, Hamilton will be a top five fantasy pick come the start of the 2010 season.

It’s official, Brett Gardner has won the Yankees’ center fielder job. This will clearly cut into at bats for Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Gardner didn’t get on base much, but he can run, and plays solid defense. His power display this Spring possibly contributed to this title, however I doubt it’ll hold over the season. Cabrera also made a strong case this spring as well, but he’s suddenly a candidate to be traded.

2009 Projection: .265 AVG, 500 AB, 134 H, .315 OBP, .345 SLG, 3 HR, 27 SB

Gardner could possibly get 500 AB, he could get 200 AB, depending on the mood of the day from the Hank Steinbrenner. I’m leaning on the prior case. In either case, he’ll be buried somewhere near the bottom of the lineup, and rightfully so. The best team however would have Derek Jeter in center field. But due to political reasons, that’s not going to happen, leaving the Yankees with one expensive bench.

Gardner is the mirror image of the White Sox’s Jerry Owens, though Garnder brings a better stick to the plate.

In case anyone is watching, Kansas City Royals infielder Mark Teahen is having a torrid spring. Granted I don’t expect him to have a 1.500 OPS for the year, but I do expect him to break out (as I’ve been saying for two years now.) He went from utility man on the Royals, to their starting second baseman. He’s made a case this spring, as has the Royals’ offense, though Teahen didn’t participate in today’s latest slugfest.

2009 Projection: .290 AVG, 550 AB, 160 H, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB

Am I being generous? Yes slightly. However from the show that he’s put on this spring, he’s definitely worth a take on any fantasy roster.

We have a week before Opening Day, and I’ll celebrate the week by trying to cram in as many of these “fast projections” as I can.

The Orioles signed Koji Uehara to a two year, 10MM deal back in Janaury. He’ll be their #2 starter this year. He has outstanding control, with a fastball that will stay in the 85-88 MPH range. He was off-injured most of last year, and spent some time out of action this Spring as well. Still he’s apparently fine and is set to pitch the second game of the season against A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.

2009 Projection: 185.0 IP, 10 W, 4.20 ERA, 25 BB (1.21 BB/9), 95 SO (4.62 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

Uehara will give up his share of hits, but he’ll offset that figure with his low walk totals (which I project to be the lowest BB/9 in the majors, for starters with 160 IP or more pitched.) In either case that should translate into a nifty WHIP for him (and is a solid fantasy sleeper in this category.) My advice, give him a few weeks and stash him on your fantasy roster if he’s off to a hot start. Still, an injury could derail all of our plans here…

I did this back before, when there were oddly enough two Ryan Bruans in the majors. I wanted to do the same thing back when there were two Bobby Joneses pitching as well. In either case, there are a pair of Josh Fieldses in the majors, one is a closing prospect for the Mariners, the other is a third baseman for the White Sox.

Starting with the infielder, Peter Gammons of ESPN said the following about the slugging infielder:

Josh Fields hit 23 homers in 100 games for the White Sox in 2007, but his 2008 season was a waste because of right knee problems. The former Oklahoma State quarterback finally gave in and had knee surgery. He also underwent LASIK eye surgery, and he claims it has made a significant difference in seeing the ball this spring as he opens the season at third base.

Surgery will quite possibly help him somewhat, however it was the departure of Joe Crede that played the most to his advantage. He’ll go deep from time to time, however the strikeouts will put him in Ozzie Guillen’s dog house from time to time.

2009 Outlook: .255 AVG, 525 AB, 31 HR, 95 RBI, ass-load of strikeouts

He’s set to take in a good chunk of playing time in Chicago this year. Yes, Dayan Viciedo is there to put pressure on him, however Paul Konerko’s struggles could also play in his favor as well.

***

The Mariners (under Bill Bavasi) burnt the 20th overall pick in last year’s Amateur Draft on a closer, drafting Joshua Fields. He signed a month ago, and then at that point people started to speculate as to whether he’ll be closing for the M’s at sometime this year. The big news of today, that’s not going to happen.

I like what David Pinto wrote about this, comparing the situation to the one that Jonathan Papelbon faced a few years ago. Brandon Morrow has ridiculous stuff, and I’ve always wanted to see him as a starter. However given the forearm issues, maybe having him close is the best for both him and the team. Fantasy owners of Morrow must have been happy to hear this news today (he is NOT available in any of my leagues, and is owned in 89% of ESPN’s leagues.) Still this move essentially doomed Fields to remain in the minors for the year. However, the possibility of him being up in September should not be out of the picture at all…

So much news over the past few days about (Pirates’ prospect) Jose Tabata. Actually most of it revolves around his wife. To get everyone up to speed on the story:

Under his own insistence, Pirates prospect Jose Tabata wrote and delivered a statement on Friday concerning the kidnapping charges his wife, Amalia Tabata Pereira, faces and the recent revelations that much of Tabata’s relationship with her is now known to have been built on her calculated fabrications.

Pereira is accused of kidnapping a 2-month-old girl in Plant City, Fla., on Monday after posing as an immigration officer. An Amber Alert was issued for the missing infant, Sandra-Cruz Francisco, later that evening. An anonymous call to the Manatee County Sherriff’s Office on Tuesday led police to a strip mall in Bradenton, Fla., the city where the Pirates hold Spring Training, where the baby was found and handed over to law enforcement unharmed.

Tabata is a 20 year old outfield prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates. His wife (at the time of the arrest) is 43. The two met over two years ago, and just recently married back in January of 2008. The article elaborates on that fact as follows:

Tabata fell into a situation where he was taken advantage of by Pereira while a teenager adapting to life in a foreign country. Tabata was 18 when he met his then-41-year-old wife in Tampa, Fla., as a Yankees Minor Leaguer. The two married in January 2008.

In other words, we have a classic case of a cougar attempting to catch herself some prey. I’m 27, would I have done the same thing if pressed into that situation? Well lets lay down the facts about Tabata’s wife. When she started the hunt, she was 41 years old. For XKCD readers, we can use the following formula to calculate the minimum age guy she can date:

( Math.Floor($age/2) ) + 7

I added the floor function to decrease the age even further. Any ways plugging in the variables (or variable as I should say), Tabata can’t go younger than 27. She bagged herself a 18 year old high-ceiling prospect. She’s clearly violating the rules of nature here. On the other side of things, the youngest girl I can date is a 20 year old. That’s good to know. Still, not to sound immature and such, what was Jose thinking? Seriously.

TBO.com, Tribune photo by JASON BEHNKEN.

As everyone knows by now, the Orioles optioned top catching prospect Matt Wieters to Triple A Norfolk yesterday. For most people near Baltimore, this isn’t a surprise, since the team will get a seventh year of service from Wieters if he’s brought up at the right time (mid May.) Granted he’ll most likely have Super Two status, but that’s not a problem for me.

There were a few comments around the blogosphere about this. Shyster’s was classic, however I wanted to cite something from Baseball Musings:

I really wonder how much holding back Longoria helped in him signing a long-term contract. I’m guessing you offer any first-year player a nice, long-term deal, he’s going to take it. If the Orioles came to Wieters with a seven-year, $50 million deal, he’s signing on the dotted line. Instead, Baltimore plays games with service time, instead of getting someone who might bring the fans out into the lineup.

As many people recall, Evan Longoria signed a six year deal (for 17MM) within days after his callup last April (it can grow to nine at 45MM.) It’s a great move for Tampa Bay, however there was some risk attached to it initially. Many fans loved the move, Scott Boras however naturally hated it. The reason why? The owners are getting top talent at below-market prices.

I disagree with David Pinto’s comment, and fully expect Wieters to go year to year. The reason why, he’s represented by Boras. Boras has the best catching prospect to come along in two decades under his umbrella, why would he want to lock up this kid as soon as he can. Wieters has time, and if Boras takes him year to year, he’ll maximize his earnings.

Take Mark Teixeira. The Rangers offered him a eight year, 140MM deal a couple years ago. Boras shrugged it off, and the Rangers (knowing that they weren’t going to be able to keep Tex) dealt him to the Braves for a slew of prospects, which include Jarrod Saltamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Netfali Feliz, Scott Feldman, … (oh vey, easily the biggest haul of prospects I have ever seen.)

Granted I don’t expect the Orioles to deal Wieters to someone else, but at the same time I don’t expect him to sign any long term deals. Boras knows what he’s doing. If you throw in Stephen Strasburg, Boras has the best battery of prospects that has ever come up in the past 15 years under his wing. He’s naturally going to get them the most money they can get.

The Huffster elaborates on the term “contract year":

I don’t know how guys do that. … Some guys, they go into their contract years and put up huge numbers. It amazes me. Adrian Beltre, I think he hit 49 home runs in his contract year. I don’t know how they do that. I just go at it the same way, go one day at a time, and see what the numbers are at the end. You see these guys put up ridiculous numbers and then they don’t do as much the next couple of years. Does that mean they’re just playing for the money?

Now I could be a dick and state that Beltre hit 48 home runs in his walk year instead of 49, but to suggest that Beltre has been nothing more than a “bad contract” for his new team is false. Beltre has been worth 57MM to the Mariners over the past four years, with the Mariners paying him just over 50MM for his services. Even in his worst of the four seasons, he was still a 2.5 WAR player.

Beltre is going to be one of the most-sought after targets after the season is over, when he becomes a free agent. His glove is fantastic, and his bat shows up from time to time too. Still when the Mariners signed him, they most likely didn’t have expectations for him to repeat the same season he had in 2004, when he was a 10 WAR player. That’s Albert Pujols-territory my friends.

It’s clear now that Richie Sexon was the worse of the two big signings that Bill Bavasi and the Mariners partook in that year.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings is holding an annual pledge drive for his site. He raised over $2,500 so far, and we should all contribute something. I just did, I hope others follow. It should be noted that writing on BM is Pinto’s full time job.

Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool has gotten some exposure recently on MLBTR, and both have been using it to project all 30 teams’ offense for the 2009 year. I personally have used his DBD Database more often than not, especially for researching which starters pitched for a team however many years back.

In other words, donate something to the site. The contributions are used to fund the massive data which is fed to the above Python scripts.

There has been tons of talk lately about Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State pitching prospect who can hit 102 on a radar quite often. I’ve seen the videos of him pitching, the 23 strikeout game, the dominance over the Dutch, he looks good… however is he the best pitching prospect to come along in the past 15 years, or is this another drumming up from the PR Machine of the Scott Boras Corporation?

Oddly enough, Jon Heyman hasn’t chimed in, however ESPN’s Buster Olney got things started with this glowing blog entry a week back:

So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year’s draft?

“The best I’ve ever seen,” says a longtime scout. “And it’s not even close.”

C’mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal – tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You’re saying he’s better than what Prior was then?

“Easily,” says the scout, over the phone. “I’m telling you, it’s not even close.”

In other words, if Strasburg was on the free agent market this winter, he would be comparable to A.J. Burnett, who landed a 82MM contract with the New York Yankees back in December. However that wasn’t the case, and he’ll enter the 2009 Amateur Draft, most likely as the top overall selection, which is held by the Washington Nationals. However the ever-exciting Scott Boras caught wind of the aforementioned ESPN piece, and brought up his own idea on the price tag of this talented pitching prospect: 50MM in total compensation over six years.

As Dave Cameron reminds us, the record for total compensation of an amateur selection is held by Mark Prior, who got 10.5MM. Mark Teixeira is second with 9.9MM and David Price is third with 8.5MM…

***

In looking at a comparable to Strasburg, I would definitely suggest Price. Both pitchers have clear #1 ceilings, however Strasburg has considerably more zip on his heater (though Price is known to hit trips in his as well.) ESPNs’ Keith Law disagrees, and says that there is no comparable to this pitcher. Jim Callis of BA tones down Olney as well:

Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he’s not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there’s little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.

John Sickels also has a few remarks himself:

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I’ve received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn’t pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

***

With that stated, Strasburg is a fine talent, but at the same time he is mortal. In all fairness I could see him getting 10MM guaranteed next year, maybe 12MM, from whomever drafts him. 50MM? That could be a little too far fetched. Now with Washington having the top pick in the draft, could they take him first overall, knowing that Boras has these grandiose plans in place for his top pitching prospect? If they don’t take Strasburg, the next best available player (Grant Green) also has Boras “advising” him.

This isn’t the first time that Boras has thrown a wrench into the Amateur Draft. Boras represents Matt Wieters, and he fell all the way down to the #5 spot, where Baltimore gleefully took him (giving him the 6MM signing bonus he demanded.) Teams were reluctant to grab him due to the fact that Boras was his advisor (ask the Pirates how they like Daniel Moskos.) Could the same thing happen with Strasburg this year?

Given the fact that the Nationals lost out on Arron Crow, I’m sure they’ll take Strasburg with the #1 pick. And I do see them signing him, for reasons they they were unable to sign Crow and Teixeira. It won’t take 50MM, but in any case it’ll blow the slot recommendation out of the water.

***

So what will be the outcome of the 2009 Amateur Draft? Simple. The owners will be pissed, primarily at Boras. As per their CBA, which expires in 2011, a team has control of a player for the first six years of his Major League service time. In half of those years, the player has leverage over his salaries (via arbitration), and the team has the other half. Now there are other factors which can influence things here (e.g. Super Twos), however when a player is given a Major League contract after he is drafted, this changes the leverage considerably. Take Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. He signed a Major League deal with the Indians back in 2002, and the contract didn’t expire until last year. Guthrie wasn’t arbitration eligible, so the team gave him the maximum pay cut, and he’ll make around 600K in 2009.

If Strasburg is to get that six year, 50MM Major League deal, the Nationals would all but certainly push him into their 2010 rotation right out of Spring Training (there’s no sense in paying him that money to remain in the minors.) He’ll serve out his six years, then get another monster deal once he becomes a free agent at the end of his 2015 season. Boras would love this scenario, but in this economy, I think we’re getting a little far ahead of ourselves here… but if this does happen, expect another labor/ownership holdout in 2011.

Almost everything that I’ve seen about Orioles’ pitcher Brian Bass has been, um “fishy.” He came over to the Orioles last Fall from the Twins for cash considerations. His final start of the season was excellent, and he pitched a no-hitter the start before against Tampa Bay (albeit in five innings.)

Say hello to your #3 starter Orioles fans.

Now why am I bringing up Bass? For one I’m fighting a hang over. However more importantly I’m trying to come up with a few names of pitchers that could land rotation spots. Bass doesn’t have the best stuff, however given the state of Baltimore’s rotation he’ll most likely have a spot when the season opens, especially with Rich Hill and Koji Uehara hurt, Hayden Penn struggling (and out of options as well), and Danys Baez stinking up things.

Bass also brings up fantasy implications. Granted I’m not suggesting putting him on your team, however a basic assumption is that 20% of the starting pitchers in baseball are not drafted in fantasy leagues come April 1st. The reason why is because most team rotations aren’t set until the last week of Spring Training. Fantasy drafts, they occur in early April.

I’m a huge fan of grabbing pitching off the waiver wires. Granted I’m not looking at Livan Hernandez, however I grabbed Jordan Zimmerman as soon as I could (to help repair my one team’s rotation.)

If Bass kicks, um, Bass, then I’ll be surprised. Most of the projections have him winning about four games in 2009. However Baltimore has four slots in their rotation to fill. Bass is all but certain to have one of them. Now if he does good, he’ll have Baltimore fans happy, and of course Cabellas will be calling him to do promotions as well.

So I got drunk Friday night and overslept a huge fantasy draft on Saturday morning. I’m really pissed too, since it’s a really competitive, invite-only league, and my mad-skills kinda raked last year. My team was auto-picked, and it sucks. I understand how auto-pickers work; the algorithm attempts to grab the best player available at the position. In other words, I’m stuck with a pretty sweet crop of outfielders. My infield blows, my pitching staff fucking sucks (both starting and relieving.) I think I can salvage things here with this disaster… pitching is best found on the waiver wires anyways.

I had the same issue happen to me last year with a fantasy football team. In other words I was that kid who showed up with eight quarterbacks. Oh well, my strategy now changes. I was really hoping to draft a catcher as soon as I can. Think about it… we have Brian McCann, we have Joe Mauer, we have Russell Martin and then it falls off. I know Matt Wieters is now a household name, however I’m not sure where he went in this one particular draft.

I was eying the fourth round to draft a catcher. From what I’ve experienced, people get scared off if you draft too early. That is if I was to draft McCann in the fourth round, we’d have other owners being:

Oh shit. He didn’t just draft a catcher, did he?

At that point, the other catching studs are off the board. The same thing happens in fantasy football, especially if you draft a tight end (or in some leagues a defense) too early. In either case, if you party and chase girls the night before, you’re stuck with Jason Varitek (whom I ripped all Winter) and Gerald Laird on your roster the day after. That’ll teach me a lesson. Yes I’m smart enough to clean up the roster via waiver wire pickups, however good catching doesn’t come along too often, and this will be tough to fix.

***

A few things happened since I was last here. Scott Baker got a four year, 15MM extension a few weeks back, and Jon Lester got a five year, 30MM contract yesterday. Both the Twins and Red Sox aren’t getting discounts, and I give credit to the two pitchers for striking while the iron’s hot. And the Astros signed Ivan Rodriguez to a contract worth 1.5MM… good move on both sides, though FanGraphs doesn’t consider him much more of an upgrade on J.R. Towles. I gave up on Towles, and am now starting to consider Pudge for this fantasy team as I speak…

***

I wanted to close with an interesting graph I came up with for Johan Santana:

Google “charts” the Mets’ ace.

What do we see here? Easy. Johan’s ERA and Ks dropped when moving to the National League last year. However his WHIP was high, and his K/9 and BB/9 were also alarming. However the scary part behind his season last year was that 3.50 FIP. In other words his ERA should have been around 3.00 or so last year, but he got assisted with one hell of a defense (especially Mr. Beltran and Mr. Wright and Mr. Reyes…)

Santana’s a great pitcher, but his supporting cast saved his ass last year, sans his bullpen. That could change for this season, and I could see Johan winning 20. I think his ERA will be about what it was this past season, and I expect him to be fine in 2009 (he got off to a rough start last season.)

It’s tough to project the Mets’ ace. If you’d see, his 2007 and 2008 campaigns were very similar. He struck out about 20 more hitters with the Twins, yet his ERA was down by nearly a run as a Met. The result, he was a 4.6 WAR pitcher in both seasons. He also reached a career high in innings last season, and could that be a problem this season? We hope not. Still is the Santana of old going to return in 2009? I’m not sure. I highly doubt he’ll ever be a 7 WAR pitcher again though, something Tim Lincecum was last year (at a worth of 33MM, he was highly deserving of that Cy Young award.) Santana is a very good pitcher, and is a solid ace, but that Major League leading 2.53 ERA is hella-deceiving.

Rob Neyer of ESPN brought up four solid relievers who can be had for cheap:

Relief Pitchers: Joe Beimel, Chad Cordero, Dennys Reyes, Rudy Seanez

Over the past three seasons – all as a Dodger – Beimel was 11-4 with a 3.04 ERA. He gave up seven home runs in 2006, but has allowed just one over the past two seasons and 116 innings. Oh, and he’s a lefty. Either he’s a lousy guy in the clubhouse or his agent’s not having a good winter. Because for the past 50 years there’s been a place in the majors for a guy like Beimel, and I expect there will be for the next 50.

Cordero just has to convince someone he’s healthy. I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite closer again (if he ever was) because he gives up too many home runs. But he’s 26 and he’s got a 2.78 career ERA, and might make someone a fine setup man someday.

Reyes is sort of like Beimel without the fastball (and thus the innings). Last season, he got into 75 games with the Twins and somehow totaled only 46 innings. Which might be some sort of record. Funny thing is, he’s not that bad against right-handed hitters. Anyway, if somebody’s looking for a LOOGY and can’t afford Beimel, Reyes is a solid choice.

And finally, I can’t let the opportunity pass to mention Seanez, who has pitched in the majors since 1989 (with a couple of enforced breaks) with nine different teams (including the Padres for three stints). He’s 40, but pitched effectively in each of the past two seasons and picked up a World Series ring with the Phillies last year. I’m not convinced yet that he’s not the new Jesse Orosco.

With that all “said", take Reyes off the list. The Cardinals nicely upgraded their bullpen for a guaranteed 3MM. Nothing against Brian Fuentes, who the Cardinals were interested in and is a very solid pitcher, but Reyes is a much more cost-effective answer, who costs a sixth of what Fuentes signed for.

Joe Posnanski is liking what he sees with the Royals so far in Arizona, particularly with their pitching:

People around baseball are beginning to come around to the idea that the Royals’ pitching staff has a chance to be pretty good in 2009. They have a potential ace, a strong veteran starter, a couple of young pitchers who can emerge, a bullpen filled with power arms and the best closer west of Mariano Rivera.

I won’t disagree with any of those claims. Heck I’ve been saying it all along (to many ridicule), I love Kansas City to win the division in 2009. I think they got a good core of players together. Any ways Posnanski brings up one last point about their bullpen, which is still good, sans (league min relievers) Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez:

“I think the Royals have the best bullpen in the division,” a scout says. “They have power arms, they have lefties, they have a great closer. Their bullpen was pretty good last year when I saw them, but I think it’s better this year.”

It’s good. It’s the best bullpen west of Boston. It’s a shame that a Juan Cruz signing made people suddenly think that this team is good…

In case anyone missed the news today, Manny Ramirez finally signed. Frank McCourt and the Dodgers’ brass acquiesced, and gave Manny the money he wanted. He’s getting the 45MM over two years, but less of it is deferred.

Some interesting quotes about the whole thing, and of course my color commentary thereafter:

The mood brightened in sunny, balmy Dodgers camp with the news that Manny Ramirez was on his way into town to continue a Dodgers career that could not have begun more auspiciously. Quirky, funny Manny isn’t due in until Thursday, after he completes a full physical Wednesday in L.A., but his peppy personality was already seen in some teammates who were just happy to hear they weren’t going to have to fend for themselves.

In case anyone figured, that was CNN’s Jon Heyman. He is to Manny as Chris Matthews is to Barack Obama. Actually I’m not sure if that’s the best analogy, but he’s been the official mouth piece in regards to this contract saga.

I’m glad to see that many other people are starting to see this Heyman/Scott Boras tie, originally brought up by Baseball Analysts’ Rich Lederer. This is from the RotoWorld blurb last night, when the contract talks were starting to converge:

That’s ESPN speak for “we blew it, but we’re going to do our best not to admit it.” It’s probably only a matter of time until something does get done here, and we’ll trust SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the unofficial mouthpiece of Boras Corp., to have the scoop.

Manny then chimed in on the whole saga:

I cannot control what people might think … The economy is making everyone adjust. I will be happy to play for L.A., win and win a couple Gold Gloves just like Andruw Jones.

Wow. Thank god this is finally over.

The Blue Jays were soooo close to making some noise this winter:

Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera has agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the Oakland Athletics, who also are closing in on a deal with veteran infielder Nomar Garciaparra, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Monday. Cabrera, 34, will replace Bobby Crosby as Oakland’s starting shortstop. Cabrera hit .281 with eight home runs and 57 RBIs and stole 19 bases for the White Sox last year.

On the whole I like this move for the A’s, it’s a shame that they still have Bobby Crosby on the roster however. Still as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts it, they just spent 4MM to bump themselves up from an 82 win team to an 83 win team. For them to see true value on this signing, they’ll need to unload Crosby’s 5.5MM that’s owed to him this year, and in our current economy, that’ll be tough to do.

Speaking of the economy, that’s the main reason as to why the Blue Jays have been so dormant this offseason. I don’t know any other team who had a bad winter. They lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, and won’t get the Type A luxury that the Angels do, since they also signed (Elias higher) Mark Teixeira. All four other teams in the division have improved themselves by at least two Pythagorean wins in my opinion. Granted the AL East is a nasty division to play in, but you need to at least make some moves to make up for those that you lost.

Bill Madden of NY Daily News brought up a nasty topic for debate today:

The rumblings already have started. With three years to go in the basic agreement, baseball’s owners are once again sounding the flashpoint “c” word - as in salary cap. But this past week, events in Oakland and Miami - where a new stadium plan for the A’s was pronounced dead and one for the Marlins once again put on life support - may leave the owners no choice but to revisit another ominous “c” word: contraction.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer fired back with a assuaging rebuttal:

Look, the A’s and the Marlins both have serious ballpark/revenue woes. No question about it, and Madden does a good job enumerating those woes. But it’s a massive leap from “needing” a new ballpark to the c-word. For one thing, both the A’s and the Marlins have, in recent years, been competitive. We’re not talking about the St. Louis Browns here. We’re talking about one franchise that won 93 games three seasons ago and another that won 84 games just last year. I mean, seriously: these are the two teams that might disappear?

And Craig Calcaterra put the icing on the cake this afternoon:

Well, I think he’s right again here. But even if those obstacles were hurdled, wouldn’t it make more sense for the owners to sit around a table and figure out how to help ailing franchises rather than kill them? My assumption is that the Marlins’ and A’s owners would demand something akin to the market price + hassle charge in order to give up their franchises. I’m also assuming that, since Bud has cultivated a very chummy ownership group, they’d get at least that much. So we’re talking in the hundreds of millions here.

I remember the last time we had the contraction debate, and it was a decade ago. The teams thrown up were the Twins and the Expos. And naturally of course, everyone then had their own mock contraction drafts. That is with the first pick in the draft, teams were salivating over taking Vladimir Guerrero. If we’d contract the Marlins and the A’s, that talent would have to be divvied up both at the big club (e.g. Hanley Ramirez) and the minors (e.g. Trevor Chahill.)

I find it odd why Madden chose these two teams. The Marlins were above .500 last year, and the A’s have been perennially contending under a tight budget with Billy Beane. Besides, the A’s have been gearing themselves into contention, having signed Orlando Cabrera (at a small 4MM) this afternoon.

If baseball needs anything, contrary to what Madden believes, it’s that it needs more teams. And I’m referring to the major markets. New York could use another team, or hell two or three. Granted the Steinbrenners will fight this to the bone however. And since they’re the only party that doles out the major contracts, the players union would naturally be in similar disagreement. Any ways this brings us to our current stalemate.

I got emails from a few Phillies fans today, bragging about how they were able to dump Adam Eaton on my Orioles. My rebuttal was classic: the Phils are still on the hook for (at least) 8.6MM of his 2009 salary.

Eaton, plain and simple, sucks. (Philly.com photo)

The Orioles are taking a low-risk chance. If he pitches poorly in Spring Training, the team can release him. If they take him up North in April, they’ll only have to pay him the minimum 400K for the year. Still I wouldn’t advise on the later. Eaton granted a few years ago was a serviceable #5 starter, however he’d be more of a service for his team by simply not pitching. Granted many teams have had their shares of bad contracts from the past seasons, and I was scratching my heads when the Phillies inked Eaton to the bad three year, 24MM deal.

If the Orioles are looking to eat innings, they have many other options in camp. In other words, don’t simply assume that the Orioles are automatically going to insert Eaton as their fifth starter. I honestly feel that they’ll break camp with David Pauley (obtained from Boston) as the fifth man. He pitched well yesterday, however another option that they have available is Brad Bergesen, who won 15 games this year at Double-A and was their minor league pitcher of the year. Pauley is more likely however, since he is out of options. However Bergesen is a sleeper himself, especially if Rich Hill opens the year on the DL.

In either case, as many have stated before, Baltimore has a plethora of intriguing young arms. However they all have options, and there’s no reason for them to be rushed up to the majors just yet. Still I wouldn’t rule out Bergesen, who shut out the Red Sox today. It’s not automatic that they have to break camp with veterans in the rotation. Baltimore did that five years ago, when they let some young kid named Erik Bedard take the fifth spot in the rotation…