Late Innings

Boston, let it be known, has an unfair amount of pitching depth up on the big club. Per the RotoWorld depth charts, lets look at their starters:

1. Josh Beckett ( R )
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka ( R )
3. Jon Lester ( L )
4. Tim Wakefield ( R )
5. Brad Penny ( R )
6. Clay Buchholz ( R )
7. Michael Bowden ( R )
8. Junichi Tazawa ( R )

And now to their excellent relief corps:

1. Jonathan Papelbon ( R )
2. Hideki Okajima ( L )
3. Takashi Saito ( R )
4. Manny Delcarmen ( R )
5. Justin Masterson ( R )
6. Javier Lopez ( L )
7. Ramon Ramirez ( R )
8. Wes Littleton ( R )

Now why for the odd topic? Not sure, keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight. It would be humorous to see Obama as the commish for one day though. And the one thing I’m sure he’d go after is the Red Sox and their pitching stockpile. It’s just not fair that teams like the Rangers don’t have the pitching up on the big team now… um we need more of these.

A little drunk now… any ways I’m reading BP and looking at their depth charts… Baltimore is moving up a tad:

The team won 68 games in 2008, and it could have been many more, thanks to a lousy (perennial) September, going 5-20. Strangely enough this team was in first place for a good part of the season last year too, then like always after the All Star break, fell apart. BP has the 2009 corps in place for 77 wins, or a nine win (a modest 5.5%) improvement.

Andy MacPhail and Co. is building a team that’s rooted around defense and on-base percentage. In other words, he’s been reading FanGraphs all winter. And apparently, this is going to be paying off for the team. This is a stark contrast to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have simply put done nothing this winter. And I’m sorry if I offended any Kevin Millar fans here.

Royals Sign Juan Cruz

Hopefully this is the last post that I write about the Royals, until they win their division this September of course. I really like the Royals, and they have an interesting core of talent. If the talent goes through a great coalescence however, this team is deadly. Still they have a few flaws, but I still see them winning 85 games in 2009. And in the AL Central, that’s all that’s really needed to do so.

Arizona gets the Royals second round draft pick in this year’s draft, but not their protected first rounder. Cruz gets 6MM, with incentives that could push it up to 8.5MM. Still the sad thing about this deal is that Cruz will get less than Kyle Farnsworth. That’s what you get for being a Type A free agent.

Only I would waste a post tying a minor injury to (former Giant prospect, now Baltimore Oriole) Brad Hennessey to a popular Eminem song a few years back. In all fairness, Brad easily has the best last name in baseball. Much cooler than (another former Oriole great) Scott “Clan” MacGregor.

…does that mean he’ll be signing soon? The last time I did this, Jason Varitek then signed his one year, 5MM deal. In either case, the other Scott Boras client apparently got another offer from the Dodgers this afternoon:

From what I understand, though, there WON’T be a deal tonight. The offer is a two-year, $45 million contract, with salaries of $25 million the first year and $20 million the second, but the second year is a PLAYER option so Manny can walk away if he believes he can get more on the open market next winter. If he is injured during the first season, the second year becomes guaranteed. Boras and Co. have taken it under advisement, and the club is expecting a response early tomorrow.

Essentially they combined the one year, 25MM offer the team made a month back and added a player option onto it (for 20MM), pushing this puppy to 45MM (potentially) over two years. As you recall, Ned Colletti made the exact same offer back in November. In other words, I’m seeing little deviation in the offers to Man Ram.

If Boras maintains his “hold down this fort approach", this permutation of offer #1 with offer #2 will be handled the same way as the prior ones were: in front of a firing squad. In all fairness, Manny is an idiot for leaving this money on the table. He will be paid more during the two years with the Dodgers than he would had he shut up in Boston and played out the final two option years (each at 20MM a piece, assuming they were vested of course.) But then again, as we’ve been witnessing all off season, this is just Manny being Manny.

ESPN’s Buster Olney speaks out on the possible “destinations” for Manny:

And yet just two teams have shown an interest in Ramirez, who hit .388 after the All-Star break last season – the Dodgers have serious interest, but only on a deal of one or two years, apparently, and the Giants have limited interest. Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters we have ever seen, a unique talent who put on one of the most extraordinary performances of our generation in his 10 weeks with the Dodgers, and he’s probably going to have to take about half of what Jim Thome got from the Phillies six years ago.

Don’t get me wrong, Ramirez was fantastic last year, a 6+ WAR player (even with his fielding being at a disadvantage.) However his attitude about his contract, plus his ridiculous contract demands, have limited his demand. The best contract received by a corner outfielder this year was the three year, 31MM deal received by Raul Ibanez from the Phillies. And that was considered by many in the media to be a “bad contract.”

Manny shot down a pair of offers from the Dodgers which any other outfielder on the market would have taken with open hands. He’s still expecting to land a 100MM contract. News flash, not going to happen. He’s expecting to land four years, again not going to happen.

Still this news only proves one thing, that CNN’s Jon Heyman is full of shit whenever he reports “news” about Manny. In other words, this glowing piece he wrote about Manny and Scott Boras two days ago is suddenly not worth anything.

Attention Late Innings readers! We have breaking news regarding MannyBManny:

Ramirez, Dodgers closer, but deal still not imminent

Now, going from what I read from Rich Lederer about Boras and his clients, he uses Jon Heyman as his means for communication, or as he put it, his personal “mouthpiece.” Granted the free agent market has “moved” slightly in the past few days, if you count the deals for Orlando Hudson and Joe Crede as blockbusters. Still movement is movement, and Boras is simply using his advertising arm (e.g. Heyman) to drum up support for his (currently largest) unsigned client.

Seriously. Let’s translate this “breaking” story:

Dodgers have done some compromising in recent days, according to people familiar with the negotiations, as the two sides seem to now understand that they aren’t going to get exactly what they want in a potential deal.

In other words the two parties probably haven’t met. Boras gave Heyman a call and told him to get his ass to work; Manny is seeing reality and is scared. Moving on:

But as to whether the Dodgers ultimately get Ramirez, well, that remains uncertain, even now as spring has sprung.

It’s all but certain that the Dodgers will get Manny. We’re the audience here Heyman, and there’s a bad case of dramatic irony heading our way…

Ramirez has to understand by now he isn’t getting a four-year deal (nor certainly five or six), and the Dodgers probably know that their offers of $45 million over two years or $25 million over one year aren’t going to get it done, either.

Translation. Boras saw that he could only get 2MM for Crede when he was hoping to get 7MM. He saw that Garrett Anderson only got 2.5MM. He’s not stupid, he read the writing on the wall. The market for a bad fielding corner outfielder is dry, especially with Jim Edmonds still on it. Boras is simply rattling the saber here. He knows that no other team will pony up 25MM for Boras, but he’s still trying to remain on the offensive with the Dodgers.

There are indications the sides may be slightly closer. But that doesn’t mean they are close.

We are still where we were back when the Dodgers made their 25MM one year offer. Boras is clearly struck with a case of temerity here.

As recently as a few days ago, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, perhaps in a fit of frustration, was said to be telling friends he just might fly to Pensacola, Fla. to confront the Man-child himself.

Most baseball people believe a Dodgers deal will eventually get done for Ramirez. But both sides appear fairly firm in their beliefs.

As I stated earlier, it will happen, but when…

The Giants are the only other team known to be in the bidding, and perhaps discouraged after being ripped for giving Edgar Renteria $18.5 million over two years, they’ve stated many times that they aren’t up for a bidding war. Even so, their presence may provide Ramirez the resolve he needs to hang tough.

Translation: there goes the “competition"… oh shit! Panic time yet?

The Dodgers, who always prefer short-term deals anyway, say they are willing to make Ramirez the second- or third-highest paid player in the game despite a dreadful economy. But so far they seem to be stubborn about sticking to a deal of one or two years. Ramirez can counter by pointing out that he saved the team last year by reinvigorating the franchise, hitting a ton (.396 with 53 RBIs in 53 games, and an outrageous .520 in October) and leading them into the NLCS after coming to a .500 team. He knows the Dodgers aren’t the same without him. But is that enough leverage?

Turn to Stats 3:16 … another reading from the Book of Manny, as written by Boras (publisher Simon Schuster.) This is when Ned Colletti should offer him a one year, 15MM deal to put Boras in his place. Again, it’ll be the best offer on the table.

The market has been dreadful, especially of late. And since Oliver Perez signed with the Mets for $36 million over three years, none of the stars to sign has even broken the $10 million per year barrier. Excellent players such as Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson signed for $5 million and $3.38 million guaranteed.

Translation, Boras is losing sleep big time, and he ran out of Tylenol PM. He saw that the market is correcting itself, and Manny’s number is about to be called.

However, Ramirez’s case is somewhat different in that he affects the team on the field and at the gate (though owners will dispute the claim that he pays for himself, especially if he’s making north of $20 million). It’s true he needs a job. But, as one competing executive pointed out, “They need him, too.'’ Ramirez is a prideful and patient guy, not to mention a fellow who doesn’t especially treasure spring training.

Boras in other words is starting to get desperate. The Dodgers “need” Manny…

The negotiations, already difficult thanks to the determination of Ramirez and agent Scott Boras, a down economy and an owner who isn’t exactly flush with cash, also have the hurdle of the recent history between McCourt and Boras. Their latest dealings include at least three tough outcomes in fairly high-profile cases: the failure to sign top draft choice Luke Hochevar, the opt-out decision by outfielder J.D. Drew and the free-agent signing of Andruw Jones, an unmitigated $36.2 million disaster from Day 1 due to Jones’ bad shape and underperformance.

The mouthpiece throws up a little reverse psych in an attempt to shake up Colletti. Highlighting bad deals to show the brilliance of giving Manny a monster deal? Don’t do it! Stay strong Ned! Never give in! Never give up! Remain steadfast homeboy!

However, Boras and the Dodgers have gotten past that history to make two deals this winter, one a minor-league deal for veteran pitcher Jeff Weaver, the other an unusual separation agreement for Jones. So any belief that the hard feelings will prevent a deal is unfounded.

Here’s a look at some of the other better remaining free agents …

blah blah blah. The mouthpiece goes on to prattle through some other remaining free agents available, mainly to show that it’s slim pickins’ after Manny.

***

Heyman is trying to sell Manny with the same manner as George W. Bush sold the bailout, and Barack Obama sold the stimulus. That is we need to move fast and get THIS THING DONE! AND GET IT DONE NOW!

If I was Ned Colletti, I’d just sit back and laugh and wait it out, until Manny and Boras come begging to your door for that 25MM offer. They have no other offers, there are no “mystery teams” here. It’s down to the Dodgers and Manny. The ball is in the Dodgers’ court, and they have all the time in the world. Manny will agree to them on their terms.

This case is the 2009 equivalent of the Kyle Lohse situation, where he held out until the end of the 2008 Spring Training, signing a one year deal out of desperation with the Cardinals. Manny will sign, it’ll be in March and it’ll be with the Dodgers. Period. We know how this thing will end. There’s no need to rush through things. The only thing on a collision course after all of this is Jon Heyman’s journalism.

Lots of stuff to run through quickly, but I see no need to use an ordered list here… on Friday last week the Twins inked Joe Crede to a one year deal somewhere between 2.5MM and 7MM. His offense was the main thing dragging him down in 2008, and if he rebounds in 2009, it’ll be good for both him and the Twins. With this news, I still see no need for Seattle to reduce their asking price for Adrian Beltre, who will be a hot name this November. … Speaking of other signings, Los Angeles signed Orlando Hudson to a one year deal worth 3.4MM. If he hits his incentives, he’ll be given a compensation of 8MM. He’s worth the 8MM, but is not worth the 15MM that he was originally seeking. Still with this, the team should really focus on getting Manny signed…

Speaking of other Type As who turned down their arb offers back in December, I could see (the other Orlando) Cabrera in Oakland, however not at 5.5MM, since he’ll cost an unprotected first round draft pick in the process. The same thing applies with the Twins and Juan Cruz. …

Hindsight is 20/20 for Cruz, and other players who gave the middle finger to their arb offers. (Michael Chow/The Arizona Republic)

I’m changing my mind now on Garrett Anderson’s contract, only because he’s only getting 2.5MM. RotoWorld called this move an “uninspired” signing by Frank Wren, but at that price Anderson’s worth it. If he gave the money that the Angels gave to Gary Matthews Jr. two plus years ago, it would be another story. Still I wish they would have signed Jim Edmonds instead…

Rich Lederer from Baseball Analysts sums up the arbitration cases nicely, and I agree with him when he calls Jeff Francoeur “overrated.” … Edwar Ramirez might have been referred to as “good hittin’” by Kevin Millar, but others disagree. The same thing applies to the rest of the Yankees’ relatively unknown (yet effective) bullpen. … and lastly in regards to Rick Kranitz’s “mystery starter”, I like David Pauley. Just say “no thanks” to Danys Baez.

Atlanta got the outfielder of their dreams today. I’ll give you a hint: his last name isn’t Edmonds.

Ryan Zimmerman signed a one year (not multi-year) contract. With that news, we have no more arbitration hearings for 2009:

Bring on the playoffs baby.

Ryan Zimmerman is THE LAST MAN STANDING.

…

And speaking of the Nationals, (non-related) Jordan Zimmerman is “a pitcher worth watching.”

Man, I can’t believe I’m writing about the Nationals tonight. Here’s to more arbitration hearings next year.

As of this afternoon, the Indians designated one time prospect (or “third baseman of the future") Andy Marte for assignment in leiu of a minor trade with the Rays. I’m curious to see who will pick him up. As I’ve stated previously, the Indians have been burned after giving up on former top prospects prematurely. Two names that come to my mind include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

If it’s my guess, I could see Baltimore taking a flier on Marte, like they’ve done with former prospects Guthrie, Felix Pie and Rich Hill. The main issue however is finding space for him on the 40 man roster. They were able to slip Scott Moore through waivers, however I’m not sure who else could be moved off the roster for Marte. Alfredo Simon perhaps? How about a Luke Scott trade? In either case, Marte would be an interesting pickup by Andy MacPhail, with top third base prospect Billy Rowell not being ready anytime soon.

Atlanta Braves’ outfielder Jeff Francoeur became the latest player to avoid an arbitration hearing today:

Francoeur and the Braves avoided arbitration late Wednesday night when they agreed to terms on a one-year, $3.375 million contract, which includes incentives that could push his earnings this year to $3.4 million.

The $3.375 million base salary represents the midpoint of the arbitration figures the two parties exchanged in January. Francoeur was seeking $3.95 million, and Atlanta offered $2.8 million.

Francoeur’s 2008 season was awful. He hit .239/.294/.359 with only 11 home runs. He spent some time in the minors last season. As to whether or not Francoeur would have won his case, I doubt it, unless the panel of arbitrators looks at his high RBI totals over the last three years (2006 with 103, 2007 with 105, and 2008 with 71.)

RBIs are a meaningless statistic, and if Franceour based his contract demands on that figure alone, then that explains why he asked for 4MM in his first year of salary arbitration. Granted the man is still an XBH machine. He had 59 XBH in both 2006 and 2007, and 47 in his major league stint last season. However his extra base hits are quickly moving towards doubles, instead of deep flies. If this trend keeps to continue, his slugging percentage will continue to decline. Couple this with a horridly low on-base percentage and declining BA, Franceour is quickly becoming a below-average corner outfielder who needs to improve, and improve quickly.

Ken Griffey Jr. is a Seattle Mariner.

So if I read my rumors right, Griff got pissed over DOB at the AJC, rumoring that he “chose” the Braves, so he decided to return home to Seattle in hopes that he’ll plant butts in Safeco. (On an aside, all these stores are using the word “choose", as if we’re dealing with Pokemon.) Anyways it’s a good strategy, but I’m not sure if the Braves should be disappointed that Griffey is off the market, especially knowing that Jim Edmonds is (still) available. Now if Frank Wren would just take my advice, they’d have a pretty interesting outfield this season, especially with Matt Diaz and those rookies in the mix. Then again Wren didn’t take my advice when he was running the show in Baltimore, and he got fired. QED homeboy.

On an aside, boy did I predict that salary that he signed on…

As most people who read LI know, I’m a huge fan of Beyond the Box Score. They love WAR data, and so do I. Of late, they’ve been experimenting with graphical charts used to project replacement data, which generously comes from the fine statisticians at Fan Graphs. I’m starting to plot some of their data as well, and I’m using an excellent API provided by Google to do so.

Google Charts is pretty slick to say the least. And what did I want to plot? Simple. I wanted to use it to analyze the Brian Roberts extension.

All in all, Roberts will be extended for four years at 40MM. These are all free agent years, so he’ll be paid on average of 10MM per season. It’s a deal I like (and I’m sure a deal that Peter Angelos pushed for), even if he’ll be 36 at the end of the deal. Last year, Roberts was worth about four runs above replacement, or roughly 18MM per season. He’s been worth this for the past three or so years as well.

Using a comparable contract, the Orioles extended Nick Markakis for 66+MM over six years. However half of those years are arbitration years. If you throw in the seventh option year, Markakis will be paid 59MM over his first four free agency years, or just under 15MM a season. Now the question is, which player is worth more… using the wonderful data again from FG, we can plot the Markakis data versus the Roberts data as follows:

FanGraphs + Google = Amazing.

From the graph, Markakis clearly has the edge due to his defense and his bat. Roberts however gets the edge for his position. Markakis is a corner outfielder, yet he was still worth six runs above replacement in 2008, which is astonishing. If he played center field all last year instead of Adam Jones (which he clearly can), this number would have been higher. In either case, both players are being payed “market rate” during their free agent years, with Baltimore coming out ahead slightly in each deal (if they didn’t, Andy MacPhail wouldn’t have planned the contracts.)

Roberts was worth four wins above replacement last year, which is worth 18MM (using the 4.5MM per win strategy.) His best season was 2005, when he was worth 6 wins above replacement. That was the season which he essentially hit half of his home runs in April. In either case, giving Roberts four years wasn’t essentially wise, but it needed to be done. If he stays between three and four runs above replacement during the four years, he’ll be worth the dollar.

And in case anyone is interested, here’s the Google query which got me the cool graph:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bvg&chs=400x400&chd=t:23.4,-3.7,23.5,2.4,45.6|34.7,10.1,23.2,-7.3,60.7&chco=FF6E1F,0F0F0F&chtt=Roberts%20v.%20Markakis%20|%202008%20WAR&chts=333333,12&chdl=Roberts|Markakis&chxt=x,y&chxl=0:|Batting|Fielding|Replacement|Positional|Value%20Runs|

A year ago to yesterday, the Brewers inked the closer of their dreams Eric Gagne to a one year, 10MM deal. He stumbled with the job, saving 10 games, winning 4, while pitching to the ugly tune of a 5.44 ERA, 79 ERA+. Yesterday the Brewers did the same thing, bringing back Gagne, however this time it’s to a minor league contract:

Gagne, a right-handed reliever and once the game’s most dominating closer, agreed on Tuesday to a Minor League contract with Milwaukee … Gagne will earn a $1.5 million base salary if he makes the team, plus up to $3 million more in incentives.

In other words he’ll be making 1.5MM if he makes the team, which is for the most part certain. He won’t be closing thankfully, which is Trevor Hoffman’s job, however if thrown into middle relief duties, he’ll be a serviceable pitcher, even with the glut of candidates that they have available.

In other words, a year ago to yesterday, Gagne signed a two year, 11MM contract. This news reminds me of another pitcher similar to Gagne. In comparing the two:

• Like Gagne, he was signed to a one year deal in 2007 with his new team.
• While Gagne broke out with his new team (16 S, 2.16 ERA, 209 ERA+), this pitcher did just the same (11 S, 3.90 ERA, 120 ERA+.)
• Gagne was dealt to the Red Sox later that summer, and this pitcher was also dealt before the trading deadline for another pitcher (Kyle Davies.)
• After the season, Gagne left Boston for greener pastures, and this pitcher did the same thing, signing a deal with the White Sox.

It doesn’t take too much to know that I’m comparing Gagne to Octavio Dotel, who unlike Gagne had a very solid year for the AL Central champs. Now do I think Gagne will rebound? Of course. I’m curious to see his numbers in the new no-pressure situation, that is unless Hoffman falters.

I wrote about this yesterday, but it seems that teams and players are now sprinting away from arbitraiton hearings. Or as David Pinto just put it today:

Might we set a record for fewest hearings in a year?

Add Josh Willingham to the list that also had Mike Jacobs, Kelly Johnson, Willy Aybar and Corey Hart added it to hours ago. And with Ryan Zimmerman now thinking long term, there aren’t too many arbitration cases left that need to be settled.

News item of today: Andre Either signed a 3.1MM deal. Finally the corner outfielders are starting to sign, as in we saw this past weekend with Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel. Will Corey Hart and Ryan Zimmerman come to terms now? I’m not sure. Still we’re starting to see fewer arbitration cases than we did last year. Last year we had eight cases, this year we have three so far (the players winning two of them.) This year with teams locking down their players (notably Ryan Howard), arbitration isn’t as fun this year as it was years in the past. Granted the month is still young…

Also, Edwin Encarnacion agreed to terms on a two-year deal. He’ll make 7.6MM over the next two, leaving one year of arbitration for him (2011) on the table. If Encarnaction goes deep 35 times, as projected by RotoProfessor, then this deal will look good for Walt Jocketty and Co., regardless of how bad Edwin will look in the field.

The Pirates and All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth agreed on a contract today:

Outfielder Nate McLouth reached agreement Tuesday with the Pittsburgh Pirates on a $15.75 million, three-year contract that includes a team option for 2012.

The agreement was struck hours before the scheduled start of a salary arbitration hearing in Phoenix.

I’m not sure how much his first year of free agency will be (the “team option"), however in either case this looks like a good deal on behalf of the Pirates. Once again, Neil Huntington quietly is making moves that will make this team respectable in the semi-near future, very similar to how Mark Shapiro is handling his team’s contention status in Cleveland.

In either case, using the wonderful data that’s available at FanGraphs:

Granted McLouth’s defense might be overrated (especially with last season’s Gold Glove in his pocket), he’s still a valuable player by far. Even with that dragging defense, he’s still worth 3.6 wins above replacement, or worth about 16MM last year. He’s getting 15.75MM over the next three years. Good deal indeed.

Pirates’ fans don’t have much to look forward too, however they should be pleased of the direction that Huntington is leading the team. Over the past two years, we’ve seen affordable extensions given to Ian Snell, Matt Capps, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit and now McLouth. The Pirate ship is clearly steered in the right direction. Now the fun part will be seeing this team in three years, when McLouth, Jose Tabata and (another talented McOutfielder) Andrew McCutchen are patrolling the team’s outfield.

RotoWorld chimes in on the strong possibility of new Mariner Josh Fields very soon:

He was drafted as a college senior and he’s 23 years old, so it shouldn’t be long before he’s ready to help the Mariners as a reliever. It’ll probably be 2010 before he’s a candidate for saves, but as little as the team has in front of him, he’s a deep sleeper for this year.

With Brandon Morrow most likely never closing again (thank you), the team is currently holding open tryouts for the closer role. And I love how BTBS is referring to this situation as “bullpen casserole.” Yes the ‘pen is a mess, but a closer with control problems riding into the Emerald City on a White Horse is not going to save the problems Bavasi left on this city…

A small bit of news from yesterday, the Mets signed Livan Hernandez (formerly with the Rockies and Twins) to a minor league deal worth about 1MM (not sure about all the stipulations.) Hernandez surprisingly won 13 games last year, however the 6.05 ERA was bad and the 1.67 WHIP was worse. He gave up 257 hits last year in only 180 innings! On the plus side, Hernandez is a true innings eater, and he has won at least ten games in nine seasons straight.

I don’t view Hernandez as a viable option, however the Mets did the right thing which is add more depth to the back end of their rotation. He’s also united with his brother Orlando Hernandez, who is planning on restarting his career as a reliever. Still Livan should be buried under the team’s depth chart. Jon Niese pitched well in his late season debut last season, and they gave a good chunk of incentive coin to Freddy Garcia. However the team would be best letting Tim Redding handle the bulk of the end of the rotation starts.

Before kicking off this little rant (it’s obviously about Bill Bavasi in case anyone wants to stop reading), the Angels inked Ervin Santana to a four year extension worth 30MM. Just like that, the team wiped out any arbitration hearings this year, since they signed Macier Izturis earlier today. This deal also wipes out any more changes that Santana has to go to arbitration. He’s still getting paid well though. On an aside, I really wish Baltimore would have grabbed him, since the Angels were after Miguel Tejada. Santana’s 2007 numbers were clearly flukish. However Tony Reagins is a relatively intelligent general manager…

… unlike Bill Bavasi. Granted he’s not in office anymore, the Mariners axed him last summer. However his legacy looms on now. The one interesting move that happened yesterday was with the Mariners signing (their future closer) Josh Fields. Fields didn’t have to be signed by last August’s deadline, however they finally got this done. It seems that after Bavasi drafted the closer of his dreams, the team simply had enough and let him go a week later…

Any ways when this move first happened, people poked at them for drafting a closer. However now after the fact that Fields has signed, people are starting to wonder if Fields will be closing in 2009 for the Mariners… WOW.

Over the years, even with Bavasi in charge the Mariners still managed to accrue a good amount of young talent. Granted he dealt a lot of it away, but a good portion still remains. Regular readers to this blog know that I think they have a potential star in Phillipe Aumont, their 2007 pick. However I wasn’t too thrilled over the Fields pick.

Closers are the most overrated players in professional sports. Thankfully the demand for closers has come down, however they shouldn’t be paid more than 5MM a year, mainly since they only pitch in a third of the innings a front-line starter will pitch. Drafting a closer in fantasy baseball is a good strategy (you need three of them, with 90 saves in the process), however drafting a closer during the amateur draft is not. I’m not sure what Fields will bring to the table. Yes he has good stuff, but without control he isn’t going anywhere. Or as Sickels so wonderfully put it:

Stuff is here, but what about command?

QED. In other words, Fields will most likely end up becoming the next Dennis Sarfate. That is he’ll be a reliever who will end up striking out over a batter per inning, however a 6 K/9 ratio isn’t promising. A pitcher with a WHIP around 1.50 can’t be used as a starter or as a closer, as the Orioles saw last year when they tried to move Sarfate around.

… by getting drunk tonight.

Baseball needs more David Wells, seriously folks.

Dear Atlanta Braves’ Fans,

I know you need a corner outfielder badly. David O’Brien and the rest of the people at the AJC agree. As do most well known bloggers, sabr-maticians and fans. You wanted Bobby Abreu, he left for the Angels. You sought Adam Dunn, who will now make the Nationals a 62 win team. Garrett Anderson and Ken Griffey Jr. are also out there, but they don’t wet your appetite. And as we all know, Manny Ramirez is still asking for too much money. You want a player who will be cost effective, yet be worth 4MM a season (according to FanGraphs.) You want an outfielder who played strong defense with his new team after an early trade, hitting 19 HR, with a 136 OPS+ and a .937 OPS as well. Atlanta fans, I have the answer for you.

Sincerely,
Mike

Ken Griffey Jr. and the Mariners are closing on a one year deal. He wants 5MM, the same figure that Bobby Abreu is getting. A few days back, the Blue Jays inked Kevin Millar to a minor league contract.

Granted both players are receiving deep pay cuts given last year’s salary. On the surface, Griffey and Millar put up similar power numbers. However Griffey got on base, Millar didn’t do quite as well. Millar was a first baseman, and didn’t put up the expected power numbers. Still given these facts, is Griffey worthy of a 5MM deal, or is he worthy of a minor league contract, especially given his declining defense?

I’d go 3MM plus incentives if I was Jack K.

The past three have been an interesting tie in between Major League Baseball and Judicial Law. First we had the Alex Rodriguez situation, which everyone knows about by now. And then there’s Miguel Tejada, who could potentially be facing deportation. Yikes. And last night, news broke about Brian Giles throwing out the cases against his ex-girlfriend. However the story that was more interesting was the one involving former Oriole/Blue Jay great Roberto Alomar:

Baseball great Roberto Alomar has full-blown AIDS but insisted on having unprotected sex, his ex-girlfriend charged Tuesday in a bombshell lawsuit.

The shocking claim was leveled by Ilya Dall, 31, who said she lived with the ex-Met for three years and watched in horror as his health worsened.

As to whether this is true or not, I’m not sure. We’ll find out once the blood tests come through. Still there are worse things in life that Alomar could be doing. This is the most interesting one that comes to mind for me:

This event was nothing to “spit at.”

The Nationals signed the middle of the order bat they finally needed:

The Nationals finally got their left-handed slugging first baseman, signing free agent Adam Dunn to a two-year contract Wednesday, according to a baseball source. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Dunn’s a fine addition to their lineup, and has five straight 40 home run seasons under his belt. Nationals’ hitters like Ryan Zimmerman should benefit greatly. The team still has some dead weight however, such as AK-.227 and Nick Johnson, but thankfully their contracts will be expiring soon. Terms of this two year deal aren’t known yet, but hopefully he will be receiving more than Christian Guzman, who signed a two year, 16MM deal last summer.

On the whole this is a great move by Jim Bowden, how clearly saw something he liked in Dunn back when the two were in Cincinnati. And Nationals fans (if they exist) should be glad that Bowden dropped the coin on Dunn instead of Mark Teixeira. This is a baby-step in the right direction, however the odds of the team losing 100 games in 2009 is still relatively high.

The Bobby Abreu saga is for the most part over:

Free agent outfielder Bobby Abreu moved closer to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday morning, as the two sides discussed incentive bonuses that would sweeten his pending one-year contract with the club, a source told ESPN.com.

It’s believed the Angels are offering a one-year deal in the $5 million to $6 million range, while Abreu wants something closer to $8 million. So Angels general manager Tony Reagins and agent Peter Greenberg are trying to negotiate some incentive bonuses that would help bridge the difference.

I think my last three or so posts here poked fun at Abreu, especially how he sat around asking for a multi-year deal in excess of 16MM a year. However he waited too long, since the last 10MM a year deal was given out a few months back.

Abreu is great with his bat, and should stay away from the field. In other words, LA has other “Angels in the Outfield” that can grab a glove. The team still has the albatross of Gary Matthews Jr. around them, but he’s still a much better defender than Abreu. 5MM to 7MM is a fair deal for him (if he’s about 1+ WAR.)

Any ways what we’re seeing now is the market correcting itself. Players are now being paid what they’re worth on the open market. There’s no collusion going on here, the reason why? Demand for corner outfielders is down.

Kudos to Tony Reagins, he’s commandeered a brilliant offseason. And he’ll reap rewards this June when the Amateur Draft comes around, since (Type A free agents) Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and (Type B free agent) Jon Garland signed with other teams. Now Reagins can go for the hat trick if he can convince Adam Dunn to wear a first baseman’s glove, and get him to sign for 8MM a year in the process.

Bobby Abreu’s 2009 salary continues to keep halving itself:

A Mets official did not rule out signing free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, but indicated that any contract likely would have to be for one year at less than $4 million. Abreu, 34, hit .296 with 20 homers and 100 RBI for the Yankees last season.

When the season ended, Abreu was making 16MM. He was hoping to get a three year, 48MM deal. He held on that for months. As of a few weeks ago, he cut his demands in half, looking for a one year, 8MM deal. Now it’s down to 4MM… nothing against Abreu. His defense is horrible, but if he plays as a DH, he’d be worth a good two runs above replacement. Someone is sure to grab him as that price continues to plummet.

The Blue Jays and Padres made an interesting trade today:

The career of Matt Bush did not end with the Padres designating the righthander for assignment last week. Instead, the Blue Jays decided to give Bush a change of scenery Tuesday, acquiring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft for a player to be named.

The Blue Jays, coupled with payroll constraints and injuries, are hurt for pitching. Bush is an interesting flyer himself. The Padres back in 2004 signed Bush instead of players such as Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew, figuring that their signing bonuses would have gotten out of hand. Bush was drafted as a shortstop, however off the field issues got in the way. He was ultimately converted to a pitcher (since that was his natural position in high school) and then sat out all of 2008 recovering from surgery.

The Blue Jays need pitching, and I’m not sure where Bush will fit in. He’s years behind other top amateur starters (e.g. Brian Matusz, et al.), however the Jays grabbed him since he is a good talent. He could advance quickly, I’m not sure. Still, going by my count, this is the second top draft pick that they acquired. A few months back, they grabbed Bryan Bullington, the #1 overall pick in the 2002 draft. And if you consider the fact that they also signed Adam Loewen, who was drafted in the 2002 draft #4 as a pitcher, we can clearly start to see Toronto’s strategy of bringing in pitching talent (yes I know that Loewen is an OUTFIELDER.) They lost A.J. Burnett a few months back, and since the Yankees signed three Type A free agents this winter, the Jays won’t be getting the Yankees’ first round draft pick this summer.

From this evening’s news wire:

Right-hander Jeff Weaver agreed to a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday after taking last season off.

Weaver, who played for the Dodgers in 2004-2005, is 93-114 with a 4.72 ERA in nine seasons. He has played in four postseasons, winning the clinching Game 5 of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.

I’m watching the Obama press conference and am hearing words mentioned like “economic stimulus” and “worst economic times since the Great Depression.” For Weaver, things were pretty good for him, as well as the economy. In 2006, he went 8-14 with a 5.76 ERA. However he tuned himself up in the postseason for the Cardinals, had a big World Series and then left for greener pastures as a free agent. The team that scooped him up was the Mariners (with Bill Bavasi obviously) for 8.325MM (the same salary he made in 2006.) Weaver paid off dividends immediately for his new employer, going 7-13, 6.20.

He had a hard time finding work back in 2008, mainly due to ridiculous contract demands and for the most part sat out the year (he did apparently pitch in the lower levels of the Brewers’ organization.) We’ll see if he can get himself into gear for 2009 for the Dodgers. That 5.0 WAR that Derek Lowe had can’t be replaced by any free agent starter on the market currently…

The Orioles’ search for a third starter ended today, albeit unfavorably. Milwaukee inked free agent starter Braden Looper to a one year, 5MM deal today. There’s a 2010 option on the table. Looper, converted as a starter for the past two years with the Cardinals, threw 199 innings last season with the Cardinals, winning 12 games in the process.

Looper would have fit in perfectly with the Orioles, however he made it clear that he wanted to remain in the National League. Baltimore, baring any unexpected pickup, is most likely going to enter camp with the current arms that they have in house. Granted it’s by no means a pretty set, but it’s a much brighter and deeper picture than was a year before.

I have very much in common with the Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Actually no I don’t. I want to keep this short and sweet however. I saw the CNN post come up over the weekend about his alleged steroid accusations, and today he finally admitted it. Rodriguez told ESPN’s Peter Gammons that he took the ‘roids between ‘01 and ‘03. In other words he drank the “high octane” coffee.

My stance on this story is to avoid it, which I’m not doing now. I talked very little about the Mitchell Report when it broke last December, and I’ll refrain from talking about the Rodriguez story after this post. Besides, the MSM is talking about this thing ad nauseum, much how they did a year and change ago about the names listed in the Mitchell Report. My closing argument, MLB shouldn’t have let this get out. Period, they didn’t do their job. Now I have to live with the most disgusting point here… that Jose Canseco was right about everything… yuck.

The big guy got his big deal this Sunday:

Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a $54 million, three-year contract on Sunday, avoiding a potentially contentious arbitration hearing.

The 2006 NL MVP will earn $15 million this season, $19 million next year and $20 million in 2011. He can increase the base salary by $1 million in each of the last two years if he wins the MVP award during the previous year. He can boost it by $500,000 if he finishes second.

For over the past year or so, I’ve enjoyed writing about Howard and his battles with the club over arbitration. His first year set the tone, since he was awarded 10MM by the arbitration panel. And the likelihood of him winning this year’s case was also high, especially if those three arbitrators loved RBIs as much as BBWAA writers do.

Granted he could have gotten more money had he gone year to year, maybe 20MM in 2010 and 23MM in 2011, however he, like most people, is probably sick of the whole arbitration process, even after just going through it for one year. Still at his rate he’s not necessarily a bargain by any means. Seriously, if you look at some data (courtesy of BTBS I believe), Howard’s a 1.7 WAR player. And being generous, at 4.5MM a win, Howard’s a 8MM a year player. So the Phillies are essentially paying double for his services, since his defense at first is the equivalent of an Easter Island statue playing the position.

Yes the Philies overpaid (and have been since last year), but then again the Philies won a World Series. As long as the team keeps winning, they can continue to wear this albatross around their necks until he leaves the team after 2011 for more greener pastures (if that’s even possible, given his older age and body makeup.)

In case anyone cares, Baltimore and Toronto swapped swing men today. Actually it wasn’t like that. Baltimore signed former-Oriole John Parrish to a minor league deal. He wants to start, from what we’re told. And a few hours later, Toronto picked up Brian Burres, DFA’d by the Orioles earlier this week after they acquired Rich Hill.

I guess it’s an even swap, though I like Parrish more out of the bullpen than I did Burres. Burres is an interesting arm; he broke out of the gate in 2008, then faltered the rest of the way. The same thing happened for him in 2007, and 2006… My guess for Toronto fans, you’ll love him at the start of the season, then the league will adjust, and it won’t be pretty.

And more on this note, BTBS is reporting that Russell Martin has great words to say about former Oriole pitcher, now Blue Jay slugger Adam Loewen. Actually in the perma-link:

‘You’re a better hitter than I am,’” Martin said. “So I’m really not worried about it at all. It’s going to take him a little time to adjust and to get used to the velocity and stuff like that, but the guy is just a natural hitter. It’s not hard for him to hit.”

Here’s a strange guess: I see Loewen in Toronto’s outfield in the fall of 2009. Loewen is an interesting player, but I guess if Martin’s advice is true, anything can happen.

We all know how well the mainstream media covered the 2008 General Election, and unfortunately their coverage of baseball isn’t getting any better. The Orioles signed Ty Wiggington this morning to a two year contract, and this one quote in the CP piece got to me:

His best season was in 2006, when he batted .275 with 24 homers and 79 RBIs for Tampa Bay.

Granted I thought his 2008 season was good (if it wasn’t Houston would have tendered him a contract.) He hit one less homer, but had a better average. However he didn’t drive in as many runs… looking at the spits:

Ok as you all can see, Wiggington did drive in more runs in 2006, but does that necessarily mean that it was his best career season? Let’s expand these stats as follows:

In either case, Wiggington had all-around better stats in 2008. It’s the same argument that was applied with the Nick Markakis extension and ESPN’s reporting of it (Rich Lederer made the same argument about how the MSM banks behind RBI.)

In either case, I’m glad that the Orioles signed Wiggington. I would have liked Dunn, but he apparently has offers and won’t be a bargain. Now if the Orioles would just sign Ben Sheets and Braden Looper, we’d be in “sleeper” business. Still, we should all be thankful that Andy MacPhail’s wife got her husband a subscription to Baseball Prospectus for Christmas. It’ll pay off for the team in the long run.

As in the following:

It didn’t take Manny Ramirez long to turn thumbs-down on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ latest attempt to bring him back to Chavez Ravine.

Just hours after the Dodgers offered him a one-year, $25 million contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in baseball and the highest-paid outfielder in baseball history, Ramirez and agent Scott Boras informed the team late Monday night that they’d rejected that offer.

Everyone knows that Scott Boras spurred the two year, 45MM offer from the Dodgers. And it apparently didn’t take Manny and Boras long to shoot down this offer. Honestly, I’m waiting to the Dodgers to simply “move on.” If that’s the case, will Boras get his client the four year, 100MM offer (or six years, 150MM according to Jon Heyman?)

There are tons of options that the Dodgers can use to fill their outfield holes, both internally and on the free agent market. And Manny, the more he shoots down, the less he’s likely to get. I understand that Boras enjoys getting his client long term deals, since that’ll free up his time for subsequent seasons. However I’m now excited to see what Boras will get his client, with the Dodgers and Yankees (can’t sign anymore Type A free agents) out of the picture. Sooner or later, Boras is going to have to settle for his client who’s on the wrong side of 35…

As everyone knows by now, I’m an Orioles fan. And for fun, I’d like to throw a few names out of free agents that would be interesting to see if they signed:

1. Ben Sheets
2. Braden Looper
3. Adam Dunn

Dunn of course would be an interesting addition, bringing massive amounts of walks and home runs with him. The two starters on the other hand would truly transform their rotation.

I’ve said this all off-season, Andy MacPhail has been loading the Orioles’ system with talent. This includes stocking both the farm system and the major league team. I’m curious to see how many wins BP and PECOTA will project them with this year, but as of now they currently have one major weakness: starting pitching.

Add Sheets. Add Looper. The price for these two might have gone up a little today thanks to the Mets however:

Left-hander Oliver Perez will be taking the hill for the New York Mets again next season.

Perez and the Mets agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal, sources told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and 1050 ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand

I’m not the biggest Perez fan by any means, and I think that Scott Boras won big for his client once again this winter. Still if I had to guess on contracts for Sheets and Looper, I’d say that Sheets get 10MM, Looper gets 6MM. Sheets I don’t understand. When healthy, he’s an ace, and last year he was for the most part healthy. Why aren’t teams fighting over his services?

Sheets is a proven staff ace, in case anyone has forgotten (source mlblogs.com.)

Insert Sheets as the staff ace, and suddenly Jeremy Guthrie is a solid #2. Looper and Koji Uehara fill out the other spots, and your fifth starter is Rich Hill. Other arms they’ve brought in this offseason (e.g. Mark Hendrickson, David Pauley) would provide much needed depth.

I like the Hill deal, I like the Felix Pie deal. MacPhail got these two players for pennies on the dime, hopefully. Granted Baltimore is an improved team, but they’re still not ready to compete with the other players in their division. However if they made these small moves, I’m curious to see the media’s reaction this year. After all look at the White Sox… Hill could become Gavin Floyd, Pie could be Carlos Quinten.