Late Innings

We are just two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and I wanted to start throwing in a few of my sleeper picks for the upcoming season. I wrote a while back about Josh Phelps, which prompted ridicule from readers. I explained my case (mainly that he’ll get bats), and if he goes deep 25 times in 2009, there will be a lot of dumbfounded looks on people’s faces.

To clarify, almost everyone and their mother has labeled Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz their sleeper picks for 2009. Granted there’s no questioning their talent, however with everyone knowing this tidbit, I’m seeing Davis drafted on average in the sixth round, and I’ve seen Cruz (a AAAA All-Star) go as early as the ninth round. Suddenly these two players don’t quantify as sleepers anymore, do they?

Enter Ubaldo Jimenez. There are a number of pitchers on the Rockies staff who could be considered their ace. Jeff Francis was big two years back, and Aaron Cook was a welcome surprise last year. Dan O’Dowd and Co. locked up Jiminez to a solid four year deal this week. And if you look at Paul Maholm’s contract in comparison, in my opinion the Rockies will look very smart in the long run. Maholm has #3 starter ceiling, while Jimenez could easily be any team’s staff ace, if he could just harness his control.

The always good to read Roto Professor had his Ask the Expert piece up this week, and this piece featured the Denver Post’s Troy Renck. The staff ace question was brought up, and here was Renck’s excellent answer:

Ubaldo Jimenez is primed to be the ace. Nobody threw more fastballs over 95 miles per hour last season in the big leagues. The issue is command. When he has average command, he’s a no-hitter waiting to happen. But teams continue to exercise patience against him. Jimenez gets it, works on his correcting his mistakes. He should win 18 games this season.

I’m not sure if I could see him winning that many games, however I could see him winning fifteen games. I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts. Now I’m not suggesting that you draft him early, but if I see him in the later rounds (19th and later), I’d grab him. I’m waiting until the eighth round to start plucking starting pitching this year. I grabbed a pitcher very early last year (fourth round), in Justin Verlander, and I got burned hard.

So there you go. Consider Jimenez for your fantasy teams. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez. Literally. One pitcher (with the help of Scott Boras), will be making 10MM in 2009. The other pitcher will be making 750K. Which of these two will provide the better bang for their buck?