Late Innings

I work during the day, and saw the news that Jon Garland signed a 6.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. I wasn’t able to chime in at the moment about it, thankfully BTBS did the work I wanted to do:

One year deal believed to be in the $6-8 million range. So let’s summarize:

Garland: turns down the Angels offer of arb which would’ve likely netted him an increase from last year’s $12 million salary, has to settle for a one year deal worth maybe half that much (though there is likely an option). Results: FAIL

D’backs: Could have spent about the same amount of money on Randy Johnson, who was worth almost two more wins than Garland last year and a local favorite. Results: FAIL

Angels: Lose a pitcher with a FIP projected somewhere in the 4.4 area who they would have to overpay for and get a draft pick out of it. Results: SUCCESS

I started to then think why didn’t the Diamondbacks offer the same deal to Randy Johnson, a pitcher worth two more wins than Garland in 2008. However Dave Cameron and the brains behind Fan Graphs again beat me to it:

Deciding that you want Jon Garland instead of Randy Johnson is a disastrous decision. Yes, Johnson is old, but he’s still an excellent major league pitcher. Garland is a #5 starter whose best skill is not getting hurt.

I know this sounds mean, but Garland is a lousy pitcher. He’s HR and deep-fly prone, gives up his share of base runners, and has low strikeout rates. The only reason he won 14 games last year was because he was part of a rotation on a team that won 100 games. He was well over-hyped since he was pitching on winning teams, and thus as a bi-product won games. As a result, he was also given a large three year deal (worth 29MM) back in 2005. This inflated his salary, and as a result, pushed up his demands this off-season. Garland was this year’s Carlos Silva, and thankfully he didn’t receive Silva money.

To paraphrase Cameron, yeah Garland really screwed up the Diamondbacks’ off season. A few months back, I read a RotoWorld piece (either by Aaron or Matt) projecting where Garland would end this winter. The author projected Garland landing with the Orioles on a five year deal for 60MM. Thankfully this didn’t happen, and I’m ever so relieved.

The Olson/Cedeno for Heilman Trade

The other news today came from the Cubs acquiring Aaron Heilman from the Mariners for infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson. The intriguing piece of this deal is Olson. I’ve seen him pitch a number of times, and he did look over-matched the past few seasons in the majors. He did pitch well in the minors however, and he might do well in the friendly confines of Safeco. Maybe this game that Olson pitched against Seattle late last year played a factor in this move…

In either case, the Cubs had Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Cedeno all out of options this Winter. So far they’ve dealt two of them, and have only acquired a pitcher that Mets fans can vouch for being a disaster. In my opinion, that’s selling low on a great amount of talent.