Late Innings

Keith Law (of ESPN) has his top prospects list out. As an Orioles fan, I’m ecstatic to see that he picked Orioles’ catcher Matt Wieters as his top prospect. As a team, Baltimore is tenth on his list of 30 teams. Granted they have a top heavy system currently, but hopefully the prospects that they picked in the draft last summer will start to mature.

…Law had the Top 100 Prospects list up earlier, but it’ll be out tomorrow (he must have took it down)… any ways from what I can remember:

1. Wieters - C - BAL
2. David Price - SP - TAM
3. Jason Heyward - OF - ATL
4. Netfali Feliz - SP - TEX
5. Travis Snider - OF - TOR

***

I had a great discussion with a co-worker today at work. It was centered around Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, whom as everyone now knows asked for 18MM in arbitration this year. The Phillies countered with 14MM, however in the end Howard will get some figure between these two numbers. If he goes to arbitration (again as expected, since 4MM is a Cecil Fielder-sized ground to cover), he’ll be awarded a salary at one of the end points.

In the end it’s all about marginal revenue product, and Howard clearly meets this figure for the Phillies (after all he’s on all their media guides, and such.) Still in comparison to other first baseman out there, if he’s awarded the 18MM next season, his salary will only trail new Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira. And this also includes St. Louis Cardinals’ star Albert Pujols.

My friend and I had the typical argument. Yes, Howard hits home runs, we know. He also drives in runs, again we know. My side was that his defense was poor (19 errors), the 199 strikeouts again are tough to swallow (though the record is now held by Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds), and his batting average (.250) and on base percentage (.330) are approaching Mike Jacobs territory, a first baseman only asking 3MM this year in arbitration.

So let’s be fair now, the two sides are definitely going to arbitration. And if the panel of three arbitrators thinks like baseball writers do when it comes to HOF voting, we’re fucked. That is:

Arbitrator #2: All right, can the two sides present their arguments?
Howard: I DRIVE IN RUNS!
Arbitrator #1: Haha, oh yes you do!
Club Official: (murmuring) Oh shit.
Arbitrator #3: We rule the 2009 salary in favor of the player. Case dismissed.

Bah, the sad thing for Phillies fans is that they’ll still have two more years of this circus. Howard is a free agent in 2012, and by that point he’ll be making around 25MM a year if he follows the expected path. Pujols on the other hand will also be a free agent (assuming the club picks up that 16MM option for 2011, easy call.) Now which of these two first baseman would you rather have on board?

I know Howard’s dad is pushing him to ask for more money, and there’s nothing wrong with this. However the more he asks, the more his trade value diminishes. Very few teams could afford him now as it is, and after two more years of this, he’ll be the most expensive first baseman on the market yet to hit free agency. Yikes!

I criticized Howard last year, and I honestly expected the panel to rule in favor of the club (who offered 7MM to Howard’s 10MM in 2008.) The panel sided with Howard. If they do the same again this year, the Phillies need to start exploring trade options. It’s a bad state of affairs to be in. Management was able to lock up their starts early and quickly. This includes Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels (covered three of his four arbitration years), and of today Jayson Werth. The team should also consider locking up Shane Victorino as well. In either case, Howard signing a long term deal, highly unlikely. However I don’t see any team wanting to take him on. It’s a huge catch 22 for the Phillies, and there’s not much they can do until Howard leaves at the end of the 2011 season as a free agent. It wouldn’t be a good PR move if they non-tender the big guy…