Late Innings

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.