Late Innings

We are just two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and I wanted to start throwing in a few of my sleeper picks for the upcoming season. I wrote a while back about Josh Phelps, which prompted ridicule from readers. I explained my case (mainly that he’ll get bats), and if he goes deep 25 times in 2009, there will be a lot of dumbfounded looks on people’s faces.

To clarify, almost everyone and their mother has labeled Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz their sleeper picks for 2009. Granted there’s no questioning their talent, however with everyone knowing this tidbit, I’m seeing Davis drafted on average in the sixth round, and I’ve seen Cruz (a AAAA All-Star) go as early as the ninth round. Suddenly these two players don’t quantify as sleepers anymore, do they?

Enter Ubaldo Jimenez. There are a number of pitchers on the Rockies staff who could be considered their ace. Jeff Francis was big two years back, and Aaron Cook was a welcome surprise last year. Dan O’Dowd and Co. locked up Jiminez to a solid four year deal this week. And if you look at Paul Maholm’s contract in comparison, in my opinion the Rockies will look very smart in the long run. Maholm has #3 starter ceiling, while Jimenez could easily be any team’s staff ace, if he could just harness his control.

The always good to read Roto Professor had his Ask the Expert piece up this week, and this piece featured the Denver Post’s Troy Renck. The staff ace question was brought up, and here was Renck’s excellent answer:

Ubaldo Jimenez is primed to be the ace. Nobody threw more fastballs over 95 miles per hour last season in the big leagues. The issue is command. When he has average command, he’s a no-hitter waiting to happen. But teams continue to exercise patience against him. Jimenez gets it, works on his correcting his mistakes. He should win 18 games this season.

I’m not sure if I could see him winning that many games, however I could see him winning fifteen games. I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts. Now I’m not suggesting that you draft him early, but if I see him in the later rounds (19th and later), I’d grab him. I’m waiting until the eighth round to start plucking starting pitching this year. I grabbed a pitcher very early last year (fourth round), in Justin Verlander, and I got burned hard.

So there you go. Consider Jimenez for your fantasy teams. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez. Literally. One pitcher (with the help of Scott Boras), will be making 10MM in 2009. The other pitcher will be making 750K. Which of these two will provide the better bang for their buck?

…is now over, at least for the time being:

It took nearly three months, but the Boston Red Sox have reached agreement to bring back catcher Jason Varitek on a one-year, $5 million contract, pending a physical and the execution of final details, two major league sources said Friday.

The contract would include a 2010 club option for $5 million. If the Red Sox decline their option, Varitek would hold a player option for $3 million.

Granted there are more details here, but wow, there’s been so much attention over a player who had a lousy season in 2008. There weren’t too many other options available for Theo Epstein to pick from however, at least on the free agent catching market. He’ll need to start looking towards the future however, whether it be in the draft or via trade. Still for the time being the whole mess is done. Honestly I was hoping that the negotiations would have gotten more caustic, it makes good material. And then Scott Boras could as for a piece of the “stimulus package":

It’s all about job creation.

Seriously.

According to a baseball source, the deadline by which (Jason) Varitek must accept or decline the Red Sox’ latest contract offer is set for 8:30 a.m. Friday, leaving less than a day for the matter to play out. According to the same source, Varitek is seriously considering the option of sitting out the 2009 season and/or retiring rather than accepting the contract offer made to him last week.

In that proposal, the Red Sox gave Varitek the choice of a one-year contract for a guaranteed $5 million or a one-year deal for $5 million with a vesting option. In the latter scenario, Varitek would earn another $5 million if the team exercises the option for 2010, and $3 million if the option is exercised by the player.

I wrote about this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Players who love the game are taking pay cuts left and right, including Jon Garland (~5MM), Mark Kotsay (~7MM), Andy Pettite (~10MM), and Pat Burrell (~5MM.) And even though Federal Interest rates are at 0%, deflation is still hitting the baseball world hard, being in “the worst economic times since the Great Depression” and all.

Varitek and Boras need to get out of their bubble. He should be happy that the club has offered them two contracts. However common sense dictates that there is no market whatsoever for an aging catcher coming off a .220, 73 OPS+ season. It’s that simple. A 5MM contract for those numbers is an incredibly generous offer on behalf of the Red Sox. It’s a shame that “the captain” and “the super agent” can’t figure this out. Seriously.

In case anyone cares, this Saturday will be a big day for free agent catcher Jason Varitek, who’s currently caught between “a rock” and “a hard place”:

By Saturday, it should become known whether the Red Sox catcher and captain will be returning to the team this season.

A baseball source confirmed yesterday that the Sox presented Varitek with a deadline to their proposal. A baseball source indicated last night that Varitek was given “one week” to make a decision in a letter he and agent Scott Boras received Friday.

According to another baseball source, Varitek has the choice of a one-year, $5 million contract or a one-year offer for a guaranteed $5 million with a dual option for 2010.

In the latter scenario, the Sox have a $5 million option for the 2010 campaign. Should the team decline the option, Varitek can return at a salary of $3 million, essentially guaranteeing him $8 million over two seasons.

The one-year offer may prove more appealing to Varitek because it would allow him to reenter the market next fall, at which point he might have greater earning power.

Going by my count, this is the second contract that the Red Sox offered to Varitek. He shot down their arbitration offer back in December, and like a lot players in similar situations today (e.g. Jon Garland, Juan Cruz), most likely wishes he could go back in time.

If Varitek shoots down offer #2, it’ll all but certain end the Red Sox’s tenure of their team captain. From here Theo Epstein will probably pursue a young, above-average catcher (e.g. Miguel Montero, Jarrod Saltalamaccia.) And Vartiek will of course be in a deep “0 and two hole.” And judging by how well he hit last year in this situation…

I know this is not baseball related by any means.

I work during the day, and saw the news that Jon Garland signed a 6.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. I wasn’t able to chime in at the moment about it, thankfully BTBS did the work I wanted to do:

One year deal believed to be in the $6-8 million range. So let’s summarize:

Garland: turns down the Angels offer of arb which would’ve likely netted him an increase from last year’s $12 million salary, has to settle for a one year deal worth maybe half that much (though there is likely an option). Results: FAIL

D’backs: Could have spent about the same amount of money on Randy Johnson, who was worth almost two more wins than Garland last year and a local favorite. Results: FAIL

Angels: Lose a pitcher with a FIP projected somewhere in the 4.4 area who they would have to overpay for and get a draft pick out of it. Results: SUCCESS

I started to then think why didn’t the Diamondbacks offer the same deal to Randy Johnson, a pitcher worth two more wins than Garland in 2008. However Dave Cameron and the brains behind Fan Graphs again beat me to it:

Deciding that you want Jon Garland instead of Randy Johnson is a disastrous decision. Yes, Johnson is old, but he’s still an excellent major league pitcher. Garland is a #5 starter whose best skill is not getting hurt.

I know this sounds mean, but Garland is a lousy pitcher. He’s HR and deep-fly prone, gives up his share of base runners, and has low strikeout rates. The only reason he won 14 games last year was because he was part of a rotation on a team that won 100 games. He was well over-hyped since he was pitching on winning teams, and thus as a bi-product won games. As a result, he was also given a large three year deal (worth 29MM) back in 2005. This inflated his salary, and as a result, pushed up his demands this off-season. Garland was this year’s Carlos Silva, and thankfully he didn’t receive Silva money.

To paraphrase Cameron, yeah Garland really screwed up the Diamondbacks’ off season. A few months back, I read a RotoWorld piece (either by Aaron or Matt) projecting where Garland would end this winter. The author projected Garland landing with the Orioles on a five year deal for 60MM. Thankfully this didn’t happen, and I’m ever so relieved.

The Olson/Cedeno for Heilman Trade

The other news today came from the Cubs acquiring Aaron Heilman from the Mariners for infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson. The intriguing piece of this deal is Olson. I’ve seen him pitch a number of times, and he did look over-matched the past few seasons in the majors. He did pitch well in the minors however, and he might do well in the friendly confines of Safeco. Maybe this game that Olson pitched against Seattle late last year played a factor in this move…

In either case, the Cubs had Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Cedeno all out of options this Winter. So far they’ve dealt two of them, and have only acquired a pitcher that Mets fans can vouch for being a disaster. In my opinion, that’s selling low on a great amount of talent.

Too much caffeine has me up late this evening. Any ways Jack Marshall has a piece up on THT, notably about super agent Scott Boras. It’s definitely a piece worth reading. Any ways I wanted to chime in about two of his clients, Carlos Beltran and Bernie Williams:

Scott Boras has over 60 major league clients, and most of them are not free agents. But unwaivable conflicts can arise with these as well. Several years ago, Boras client Bernie Williams was trying to hold on to his job as the New York Yankee center fielder, and Boras free agent client Carlos Beltran was eager to play center field in New York. He ended up signing with the Mets. Boras was ready to negotiate with the Yankees as well, evidently—ethically, he had to be, or he would not be serving Beltran’s interests. But if he was successful bargaining with the Yankees on behalf of Beltran, he would have been simultaneously sabotaging Williams, negotiating him out of a job. One way or the other, he was conflicted.

Keep in mind that this was back at the end of the 2004 season. Beltran was coming of a mammoth walk-year, hitting 38 bombs with the Royals and the Astros. His postseason was also torrid, as the team took their NLCS against the Cardinals to Game 7 (they later made the World Series the following year.) In either case, Beltran was a free agent and the Yankees were on the verge of signing him (ridiculously close), to a contract worth 96MM. However as Marshall pointed out, the Yankees already had a declining center fielder under a seven year, 87MM deal. This little conflict of interest played itself out a little longer. In the process, Boras was able to net his client another 20MM from the Mets (I’m sure George Steinbrenner wishes that he had Beltran in the outfield right now regardless.)

Granted Williams’ stats were clearly on the decline at that time, however Boras played the strong economy to his favor and got Beltran more money thereafter. Now obviously the economic climate has changed, and it’s interesting to think if Boras could be able to pull a hat trick like this again, or anytime soon… it’s interesting to note that Williams is mulling a comeback, as mentioned a couple of days ago on mlb.com.

…still too fucking expensive:

Abreu is now backing off of his demands of $16 million per year. Instead, he is willing to accept a deal around $10-11 million over three years.

MLBTR thinks that this could now bring the Dodgers, Reds or Braves into the mix, but cautions that they may all still balk at even $10 million.

While teams were scooping up bad fielding sluggers to fill their DH positions (sans Raul Ibanez), Abreu was demanding 18MM a year. Now that all of the 14 DH spots are essentially filled, Abreu cut his demands in half. According to the Fielding Bible, Abreu was ranked a -24, the fourth worst defensive outfielder. In other words teams should pay him just to hit… and with Adam Dunn, Garrett Anderson and others still on the market, Abreu might have to cut his demands in half again. He should have been asking for Milton Bradley money a month ago, back when Bradley was still on the market.

My guess, he’ll ink a one year deal with some team for 6MM in 2009. And my guess… it’s the Yankees.

News item from today, the Rockies extended Ubaldo Jiminez to a four year contract worth 10MM. If the two option years are extended (one of them being a free agent year), it’ll be worth over 22MM. It’s a move that I love (12-12, 3.99 in 2008), and I was expecting a big year out of him last year, though I bet on Franklin Morales instead.

As we all know by now, the Royals locked up Zack Greinke yesterday. Granted it’s an expensive contract (especially in comparison to Jiminez’s at 38MM), but fans and statisticians loved the deal, especially with Greinke coming off of a very good year. Actually many people loved the deal, especially the depressed Royals fans (here’s one, here’s another.

I’ve said a few times on this blog that I secretly loved the work that Dayton Moore has done. Again, here’s one, here’s another. I actually liked the Jose Guillen signing, and though 2008 was bad, I expect him to bounce back. They have a good rotation, an improved lineup, and one hell of a closer who should be starting. This team has a great amount of talent, and have been quietly improving, especially over the last three years:

If you give them a 4% for 2009 over the previous season, the Royals are a .500 team this season. However I’m going out on a limb here. Put me down for 87 wins. I like the Royals. They will surprise. They will be this year’s Rays. Yes, I know I say this every year, but Moore assembled quite an interesting group. And coupled with Trey Hillman’s player-friendly personality, this team will be going places, especially in a weak AL Central.

Per mlb.com:

The Royals made their fair share of additions this offseason, but arguably their biggest priority remained: Make sure Zack Greinke stays in Kansas City for the long-term. On Monday, they got their guy.

By signing Greinke to a four-year contract, Kansas City has a critical member of its young core in Royal blue through 2012. And Greinke’s emergence as one of baseball’s solid young pitchers is complete after trying times just a couple years ago.

Dayton Moore did something very good today, and this should make peace with his fans after he foolishly gave a two year, 9.25MM deal to reliever Kyle Farnsworth earlier this offseason.

Greinke is the team’s ace, racks up strike outs, and does something that very few Royals’ pitchers have done recently: won games. He’ll get 38MM over the four years (the last two being free agency years.) It’s clear that Cole Hamels‘ contract was used as a basis for the negotiations. In either case, to echo similar sentiment, Royals fans should be happy that Moore didn’t package their ace to Atlanta for Jeff Francoeur.

Before I start this little “see I told you so", I want to pay some great props to the ever exciting Roto Professor. He interviewed Baltimore Sun beat writer Jeff Zrebiec about what’s in store for the Orioles. As a Baltimore fan, these questions were fun to read…

***

Any ways we’re about a month or so after the arbitration offers were handed out by the teams to their Type ( A | B ) free agents. Granted there was some oversight on both sides. Bobby Abreu is still fighting for a three year, 48MM contract (fat chance dawg.) Maybe the Yankees should have offered him arbitration… any ways on to the other end of things, we’ve been having to hear about the poverty cases that are developing by the players who turned down their offers of arbitration. Notably this list includes Type A free agents Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and everyone’s favorite captain, Jason Varitek.

Sucka.

I’ve talked about the Varitek situation before, and I predicted the fallout weeks back about it. However now we’re starting to see this story envelope itself out to the financial markets… from Blogging Stocks today:

Varitek’s decision to reject the offer of arbitration probably cost him upwards of $5 million – maybe closer to $10 million.

Here’s the question: Why didn’t Varitek just accept arbitration and avoid this whole predicament? According to MLB.com: “Varitek was not aware that teams would have to surrender a No. 1 Draft pick to sign him, and he takes full responsibility for his decision.”

The moral of the story: Understand contracts and offers before you accept or reject them! And fire your agent if he doesn’t do a better job educating you. . . .

Wait…wait…wait…wait… so you’re telling me that Varitek didn’t know about the issue of draft pick compensation? Varitek is a smart guy, and he’s represented by an even smarter fellow in Scott Boras. However I’m pretty much sure that Boras brought up the issue with Varitek many times. And I’m pretty much sure that Boras told his client that a Jorge Posada-sized contract awaited him this offseason, which was four years in excess of 52MM.

Yeah hindsight is clearly 20/20. The catcher market (thanks to the Texas Rangers) is saturated. And as we’re starting to see, teams would rather sign a backup like Henry Blanco or Brad Ausmus than spend the money (and the first round draft pick) on Varitek. Varitek should have took that one year offer from the Red Sox. But he didn’t… and now we have to watch the PR disaster cover up from the Scott Boras Corporation. Apparently AIG isn’t the only one requesting a bailout here…

The Brewers signed Prince Fielder this evening to a two year contract for 18MM. He was clearly unhappy last year when the front office renewed his contract for a paltry 670K (he could have gotten the league minimum by the way.) Terms aren’t quite known yet, however if the two parties split their differences with this deal and Fielder got 7MM in 2009, then he’ll get 11MM in 2010. I’m not sure if Scott Boras could negotiate any better than that.

I tried to pick a local story to get some opinion from, and this is the best that I can get:

The Brewers avoid going to the arbitration table with Fielder and won’t have to deal with infamous agent Scott Boras for two years.

Case in point. Negotiating with Boras is a bitch, and as we’ve seen recently, he’s cool with letting his clients ink up to two years in value (e.g. Matt Holiday), especially since we’re currently in a recession and market values won’t have much of an impact of that short period of time. As long as Boras lets his client graduate into the free agency pasture as quickly as he can, then everyone will be happy.

Baring any Nick Markakis-type contract extension, Fielder will become a free agent after the 2011 season.

I’m surprised this isn’t getting as much coverage as it should be. Everyone knows by now that the Rangers lost pitching prospect (first round 2004 draft pick) Eric Hurley for 2009. He was penciled in to be the team’s #3 starter, however due to his shoulder problems this won’t be happening. Baseball America wrote up an analysis of the injury, and John Sickels commented about it today as well. Sickels, being the master of prognostication and such, wrote this a month ago:

Worried about health here. I held onto him too long as a higher-ranked prospect, but could do better with a change of scenery.

Checkmate, he called it here. Granted Jon Daniels did a wonderful job building up the team’s talent pool of late (they’re ESPN’s #1 orginization according to Keith Law), and there’s plenty of arms ready to step in as well to mitigate the blow. I’m excited to see Neftali Feliz pitch, and Derek Holland is his southpaw equivalent. Matt Harrison is already part of the rotation.

Now as an Orioles fan, I’m seeing the same similarities here. The Orioles have a plethora of young arms ready to make an impact (e.g Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, et al.), much like how Texas did a year ago. Building a team around young pitching is crucial and key today, and if news of a pitcher being out for a season arises (e.g. Hurley or Troy Patton or whomever), there needs to be someone ready to step in. Just ask Tampa Bay… a Jake McGee injury hurt them last year, but thankfully there are plenty of other arms for the organization to fall back on.

***

Some “closing humor", CNN’s Jon Heyman ironically quipped this bit of information today:

Oddly, starting pitchers still aren’t as well-rewarded as relievers as first-year arbitration-eligible players. This is the only time where relievers have the edge, and there’s no rhyme or reason to it. While star closer Jonathan Papelbon got $6.25 million and fellow closer Bobby Jenks $5.6 million, the ceiling for starters in their first year of arbitration still seems to be the $4.35 million that Dontrelle Willis got three years back (and that deal included some deferred monies). Hamels’ contract calls for $4 million in 2009, his first year of arbitration eligibility, a major bargain by any accounting.

For someone who once suggested that Francisco Rodriguez be given the MVP award for the AL, this was very odd to read this afternoon…

Why in the world did the Padres and Kevin Towers have any interest in signing Brad Ausmus? Going all ShysterBall on y’all:

Ausmus, who makes his home in nearby Del Mar, Calif., was a player Towers talked too often during the offseason. The two are also friends.

Any ways that was short-lived, since he signed a few hours later to be Russell Martin’s backup in Los Angeles. Towers countered immediately by signing Henry Blanco.

Is it just me, or are these two teams in strict competition over major league retreads who shouldn’t even be bringing a bat into the batters box? Blanco thankfully is a much more competent hitter than Ausmus, still neither of them should ever be pushed into full-time duty if need be. I think this all started when Towers countered Ned Colletti’s Juan Castro signing with his signing of David Eckstein. Exciting. These kind of things only happen on the left coast…

Keith Law (of ESPN) has his top prospects list out. As an Orioles fan, I’m ecstatic to see that he picked Orioles’ catcher Matt Wieters as his top prospect. As a team, Baltimore is tenth on his list of 30 teams. Granted they have a top heavy system currently, but hopefully the prospects that they picked in the draft last summer will start to mature.

…Law had the Top 100 Prospects list up earlier, but it’ll be out tomorrow (he must have took it down)… any ways from what I can remember:

1. Wieters - C - BAL
2. David Price - SP - TAM
3. Jason Heyward - OF - ATL
4. Netfali Feliz - SP - TEX
5. Travis Snider - OF - TOR

***

I had a great discussion with a co-worker today at work. It was centered around Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, whom as everyone now knows asked for 18MM in arbitration this year. The Phillies countered with 14MM, however in the end Howard will get some figure between these two numbers. If he goes to arbitration (again as expected, since 4MM is a Cecil Fielder-sized ground to cover), he’ll be awarded a salary at one of the end points.

In the end it’s all about marginal revenue product, and Howard clearly meets this figure for the Phillies (after all he’s on all their media guides, and such.) Still in comparison to other first baseman out there, if he’s awarded the 18MM next season, his salary will only trail new Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira. And this also includes St. Louis Cardinals’ star Albert Pujols.

My friend and I had the typical argument. Yes, Howard hits home runs, we know. He also drives in runs, again we know. My side was that his defense was poor (19 errors), the 199 strikeouts again are tough to swallow (though the record is now held by Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds), and his batting average (.250) and on base percentage (.330) are approaching Mike Jacobs territory, a first baseman only asking 3MM this year in arbitration.

So let’s be fair now, the two sides are definitely going to arbitration. And if the panel of three arbitrators thinks like baseball writers do when it comes to HOF voting, we’re fucked. That is:

Arbitrator #2: All right, can the two sides present their arguments?
Howard: I DRIVE IN RUNS!
Arbitrator #1: Haha, oh yes you do!
Club Official: (murmuring) Oh shit.
Arbitrator #3: We rule the 2009 salary in favor of the player. Case dismissed.

Bah, the sad thing for Phillies fans is that they’ll still have two more years of this circus. Howard is a free agent in 2012, and by that point he’ll be making around 25MM a year if he follows the expected path. Pujols on the other hand will also be a free agent (assuming the club picks up that 16MM option for 2011, easy call.) Now which of these two first baseman would you rather have on board?

I know Howard’s dad is pushing him to ask for more money, and there’s nothing wrong with this. However the more he asks, the more his trade value diminishes. Very few teams could afford him now as it is, and after two more years of this, he’ll be the most expensive first baseman on the market yet to hit free agency. Yikes!

I criticized Howard last year, and I honestly expected the panel to rule in favor of the club (who offered 7MM to Howard’s 10MM in 2008.) The panel sided with Howard. If they do the same again this year, the Phillies need to start exploring trade options. It’s a bad state of affairs to be in. Management was able to lock up their starts early and quickly. This includes Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels (covered three of his four arbitration years), and of today Jayson Werth. The team should also consider locking up Shane Victorino as well. In either case, Howard signing a long term deal, highly unlikely. However I don’t see any team wanting to take him on. It’s a huge catch 22 for the Phillies, and there’s not much they can do until Howard leaves at the end of the 2011 season as a free agent. It wouldn’t be a good PR move if they non-tender the big guy…

I’m reading THT’s Lost in Transactions for this week, written by Evan Brunell. He first chimes in on Koji Uehara, the Japanese control expert that Baltimore signed back on Tuesday:

The Orioles will put him back into the rotation and Uehara has the potential to pair up with Jeremy Guthrie to finally give the team a decent front of the rotation.

He then chimes in on yesterday’s trade with the Cubs, which sent Garrett Olson to Chicago for Felix Pie:

I like this deal a lot for the Orioles … the Orioles get the better “reward.” Pie can be an All-Star outfielder, while it’s doubtful Olson will ever make an All-Star Game.

He also quips on the Orioles’ playoff chances for next season:

Reports have the team interested in Braden Looper; if they can do that they could surprise in 2009. The three heavyweights in front of them are terrible luck; put them in any other division, give them Looper and you have to consider them a playoff contender.

Regular readers to this blog know that I’ve been wanting the Orioles to grab Pie for a year now. I also want them to grab Looper badly as well. They have two solid starters for now, and will probably patch in the rest with arms in the Liz, Henderson, Waters, et al. Having a third arm in the mix will add more competition, at least until the talented young arms make their way to the rotation. Chris Tillman and Jake Arietta should be on the roster some time during the season, and if Brian Matusz moves as quickly through the minors as Matt Wieters did, he’ll be in Baltimore Summer 2010.

The team currently has a very athletic, talented outfield. All three of their outfielders are “five tool” players, natural center fielders who will cover a lot of outfield ground next season. There are questions within the infield as well, whereas three quarters of their infield are free agents this season, and their shortstop is a free agent after 2010.

Nonetheless, the moves have been good the past few days, and it’ll be fun to see this team perform. The lineup can hit (big time), they have great defense (something Andy MacPhail preaches), and their bullpen is very solid. The starting pitching… well they need to bring in another arm. Still this off-season has left me optimistic… and them extending Nick Markakis was brilliant. At 65MM over six years, he’s not getting a hometown discount (it’s more Alex Rios money), but he’s one of the most coveted outfielders in the game. And if you take Fan Graphs’ new statistics seriously, Markakis is worth 24MM a year. Again, these are moves that the Orioles should be making, and I’m finally glad to see that they’re doing it.

This is the only fitting thing to do.

***

Manager Bud Black didn’t need to be sold on the idea of David Eckstein signing with the Padres.

Uh oh, you know where this is going.

During their first stint together in 2001, Eckstein —- who agreed to a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Padres on Thursday to play second base —- quickly made a strong impression on Black, then the Angels’ pitching coach. Black remembered that, because of an injury, the Angels asked the unheralded rookie, a 5-foot-6, 170-pound waiver claim, to switch from second base to shortstop during spring training.

Here we go… we’re getting warmed up folks.

Eckstein responded quickly, Black recalled, thus beginning a successful run in which he was the club’s shortstop for four seasons, including the 2002 World Series championship team.

Eckstein had as much of a role on their team’s success as the Rally Monkey did. Take that thought as you may.

“We had a coaches’ meeting, and Mike (Scioscia) asked Alfredo Griffin if he thought Eck could be a shortstop,” Black said. “Alfredo looked at Mike and said, ‘I don’t know about the arm, but let’s give it a shot.’ He put a ton of time in at short, did everything he could to adapt to making all throws. He did everything he could to make himself a shortstop in about a two-to-three-week period.

Arm? Check. Range? Check. Bat? Check. Wait a minute…

“It was great to watch.”

Says whom?

Now Eckstein, a two-time All-Star, hopes to make an equally large impression in San Diego. Saying he turned down bigger contracts, Eckstein was lured to the Padres by the promise of being their starting second baseman.

What “bigger contracts” did he turn down? He wasn’t exactly Boston’s Plan B after they lost out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes.

Eckstein said he nearly signed with the Padres for the 2008 season, but they had already made an offer to Tadahito Iguchi. Eckstein, who turns 34 on Tuesday, instead signed with Toronto and was later traded to Arizona, hitting a combined .265 in 324 at-bats.

Earning his 4.5MM salary with honor and pride (hitting two homers and stealing two bases in the process.)

“I knew (the Padres) couldn’t make the commitment financially, but they could offer the opportunity,” said Eckstein, who can earn an additional $150,000 in incentives. “There were definitely other offers out there, with probably more money, but I wanted the opportunity as everyday second baseman.”

What really happened was that Kevin Towers saw his rival Dodgers sign Juan Castro, and Towers made this move out of fear.

General manager Kevin Towers said the Padres’ pursuit of Eckstein last year was slowed by the mistaken belief that Eckstein wanted to stay at shortstop, and the club decided to offer Iguchi a contract first. By the time the confusion was cleared up, Iguchi was on the verge of signing and Towers said he “felt obligated” not to go back on his word. But a year later, Towers believes Eckstein’s addition will pay immediate dividends.

It didn’t also help that Eckstein was originally seeking a three year contract in excess of 27MM in total as well.

“You could hear it in David’s voice,” Towers said. “The enthusiasm and passion for winning baseball. You immediately make your ballclub better. Watching him from the opposing (side), he was a fierce competitor. He always found a way to make something happen.”

Yeah I agree. The Padres now have a “fierce” middle infield. What’s the over/under on whether they’ll lose 100 games this season?

Black is similarly excited to have Eckstein, who owns a .351 career on-base percentage. For a team coming off a season in which it finished with a .317 on-base percentage, its lowest since 1993, Eckstein could be the perfect fit.

Technically I can think of better “perfect fits” than Eckstein.

“First and foremost, he’s a good player and he’s going to bring an element to our club that we need,” Black said. “He has a knack to get on base. He’s a great handler of the bat. He gets big hits off good pitchers. And the way he goes about the daily grind of playing baseball, it’s going to be great for our younger players.”

Hahahaha, yeah right. It must be because David’s a “scrappy” player. Oh well. The only thing this move will do is make Jake Peavy waive his no-trade clause at a much faster rate than before… I’m so glad I’m not a Padres fan today.

The HOF results are in, as we all know by now. Rickey Henderson was an easy choice (in better shape than most outfielders today by the way), Jim Rice brought about years of debate. And then of course there’s still Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris. Blyleven is another area for debate. I’m only 27, and I grew up watching him in the twilight of his career, as an, um, Angel (same goes with Henderson believe it or not.) Blyleven’s statistics clearly warrant entrance, especially if Goose Gossage made it.

Any ways, the always exciting Jon Heyman chimes in about this, and this drew the ire of BA’s Rich Lederer:

Unlike me, you covered Blyleven when he pitched for the Angels toward the end of his career. Unlike you, I umpired a game behind the plate that he pitched. In other words, I saw Bert’s curveball, the one that Bill James and Rob Neyer ranked as the THIRD-BEST EVER in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, up close and personal.

Wow, that was incredibly entertaining. Heyman was a common punching bag for FJM, and he’s pissed me off a few times as well, particularly in regards to awards voting.

If You Don’t Qualify for the ERA Title…

I read an interesting blog today on Adjusted ERA+. The 2008 statistics for relievers last season were astonishing… Mariano Rivera at 314, Joakim Soria at 268, even Francisco Rodriguez at 198… Keep in mind that Pedro Martinez is second all time at 160 for his career. Long story short, I’m still not over the MVP voting results from last year. Particularly with Rodriguez, who managed to garner a first place vote from some baseball writer (I’ve postulated many times to be Heyman.) I’m also disappointed with the fact that Albert Pujols wasn’t an unanimous selection.

Whoever cast that first ballot vote violated the cardinal sin of BBWAA voting, which is Thou Shalt Not Vote for a Reliever. If you cannot qualify for the ERA title, then you shouldn’t be the MVP, it’s that simple. However there are writers who still give merit to players who do well in statistics that measure opportunity, not value. I’m obviously referring to the save (e.g. Rodriguez) and the RBI (e.g. Ryan Howard.)

We can demonstrate this little quandary with the following analogy. Let R1 and R2 be relief pitchers, pitching in season S. At the end of S, both pitchers accrued the following statistics:

• R1: 81 G, 81.0 IP, 81 S, 200 ERA+
• R2: 162 G, 162.0 IP, 0 S, 400 ERA+

Obviously I’m trying to demonstrate that R2 pitched twice as well as R1, however it is easily seen that the better pitcher didn’t accumulate any saves. The first pitcher saved half of his team’s games. If being generous, that is if he saved 75% of the team’s wins, then his team won 108 games throughout the course of S. His team clearly made it deep into the playoffs.

Now when November comes around, and it’s time to chose an MVP, which of the two pitchers would garner MVP consideration. First things first, from what we see, R2 would easily win the ERA title (since he pitched in just enough innings.) He also would shatter the single-season ERA+ record for simply qualifying. However I’d be curious to see how many voters threw votes at R1. Heyman I’m sure would be one, since he’d shatter the single-season saves record (currently held by Rodriguez.) And as I stated sentences ago, R1 was on a hefty playoff contender, something BBWAA voters consider heavily when choosing awards.

Had R2 not qualified for the ERA title, I’m sure that he wouldn’t get any MVP consideration himself, since he didn’t accrue any saves. Going from the numbers I gave above, his team was either blown out or won their games handsomely. He could have also exclusively pitched every seventh inning throughout the season for the team.

Saves don’t tell us anything about a player’s value. The same thing goes with RBI. Using another odd hypothetical case, take some hitter who drives in 150 runs during the season, all on sacrifice flies. How the hitter accomplished this could be done a number of ways (e.g. the hitter before him was a triples machine.) The hitter could have a .290/.390/.515 line, he could have a .180/.285/.300 line, we don’t know.

In either case I’m on Lederer’s defense here. Heyman made me lose my share of hair of the past few years. So what if he breaks rumors before everyone else. He needs to look deeper at a player’s stats before voting on any postseason award, not just on saves and RBIs.

I wanted to comment on the news coming out of Texas, in regards to Rangers’ shortstop Michael Young. Young demanded a trade last month, mainly out of irritation that he’s being asked to move to third base. The position is currently being manned by Hank Blalock, whose 6.2MM option was picked up by the club after the season ended. As to whether the presence of young (and defensively-talented) Elvis Andrus played a role or not, it’s yet to be seen. Still Young regressed with his bat in 2008, hitting .284/.346/.442. He however won the Gold Glove at his position last season.

I recall his name being mentioned at the Winter Meetings last month, and there were little takers. I’m not sure if Jon Daniels was asking too much for him or not, however if there’s one thing that would steer any interested team away, it would be Young’s albatross of a contract, which kicks in this upcoming season. Young made roughly 6MM last season (counting All Star bonuses and such), however his salary will jump up to 16MM for the 2009 season. He’ll be paid that figure throughout the duration of his contract, which runs through 2013. In either case, that’s a hefty pill for any team to swallow, even if 15MM of his contract is being deferred by the Rangers. Texas will have to eat some money to make a deal happen.

Texas could also keep Young, however with his disgruntlement and salary, I’m sure that he’ll be moved at some point in the next few years or so. Then again, Young will have to wait for the economy to improve, since very few teams (outside of the Yankees) are going to take on that payroll commitment in the current state. Besides, the Rangers’ system is incredibly deep at the moment. We all know that Andrus is on his way, however I’m very curious to see the impact that Netfali Feliz will bring to their (currently abysmal) pitching staff.

I was just reading Roch… he gives a scouting report on Koji Uehara, a fast ball which tops 89, however he mainly “works in the 82-83 range". I’m not sure how that will fly in the high shooting AL East. Uehara is a control specialist however, however if he gives up something in the ball park of 11 H/9, we’re in trouble. I could be wrong however, Tim Wakefield’s fastball peaks in the 70s and he gets away with it. It’s just something that concerns me, especially with the soft-tossers that Baltimore has tried last season (e.g. Garrett Olsen, Steve Trachsel, Chris Waters.)

Maybe I might be wrong here, and every time that I’ve questioned Andy MacPhail’s decisions, I have been proven to be wrong. MacPhail and the O’s had offers out to Japanese free agents Uehara and Kensin Kawakami… Uehara took the O’s bait, Kawakami took more money from the Braves. He’s getting a three year deal by the way, and terms of it are still to be disclosed… keep in mind that Hiroki Kuroda got 35MM last year from the Dodgers, and that’s what Kawakami was rumored to be seeking. My guess is that the Orioles offered him three years at 7MM per, I’m curious to see what he signed for today.

…

Any ways with Kawakami and Tim Redding now both off of the board, there aren’t too many other options to patch this weak rotation. The arm I would love to see the O’s land is Braden Looper, however I expect the Dodgers to pick up their push for him now with these two arms off the board. Ben Sheets is available but I don’t see any interest. Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe, I expect each of these pitchers to land in the NL East. One last arm… Jon Garland (ugh.) The O’s did inquire on him over the Winter Meetings, however they quickly learned of his asking price, which was five years, 65MM. Keep in mind that was the contract that Baltimore gave Albert Belle years ago, and we all know how “hip” of a signing that was. Any ways long story short, outside of Looper the Orioles should just sit back and let the young arms run the show again (parts of Bowie’s rotation will be close by in Norfolk this week.) And I wouldn’t sign Garland, that would be a disaster. Even if his asking price came down to 25% of what he wants, I’d still say “no.”

A number of small deals were done these past weeks, and obviously I’m not able to comment on them as they each come in. Any ways I’ll address the pros and cons of these moves, and give each signing a grade as well, for kicks.

Mets sign starting pitcher Tim Redding

If there was a pitcher that I wished Baltimore would have signed, I was hoping it was him. Redding is a little better than a fourth starter, and as I brought up a few days ago, there was a great post up on Beyond the Box Score which goes into great detail explaining that. Any ways Redding is now part of the Mets’ property, and if you’re a Mets fan you shouldn’t be any happier about this signing.

Redding should be counted on for 180 innings in 2008, however a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are a likelihood. Any ways this is a one year deal, and at 2.25MM they got a bargain. This move gives the Mets some more leverage against the Philies, and also weakens their divisional opponents the Washington Nationals (if that’s even possible.) Hopefully Redding can be used as the fourth starter, pushing Mike Pelfrey back to the fifth spot to cut down his workload from last season. If the Mets sign Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe, that would also help.

Grade: A-

Red Sox sign pitcher John Smoltz

If you do a search, Theo Epstein also inked outfielders Mark Kotsay and Rocco Badelli to contracts this week (I’ll leave this as homework.) He also signed pitcher Brad Penny to a 5MM contract back in December as well. In either case with all of these deals, Boston got themselves quality outfield and pitching depth, and they didn’t over-pay for any of it. Smoltz and Penny are intriguing options themselves. If they revert back to their 2007 form this season, the Red Sox could be a dangerous team for an already difficult AL East. I know it’s a good problem to have, but Clay Buchholz is currently seventh on the team’s depth chart now. However I don’t see any reason why the team should trade him for catching.

Grade: B+

Brewers sign closer Trevor Hoffman

The Brewers snagged themselves a solid ninth inning option, however they’ll be paying Hoffman 6MM in 2009; they had to give up an extra 2MM to convince him not to sign with the Dodgers.

Even in midst of the Padres’ abysmal season last year, Hoffman still managed to save 30 games, or roughly half of their team’s wins. Keep in mind that he’ll be moving out of the “cavernous” Petco, but that shouldn’t be a problem. 2008 was just a bad year in general for the Padres, Hoffman and everyone else included. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoffman rebound nicely in 2009. There’s clearly some upside here.

Grade: B

Reds resign infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

He’ll get 2MM in 2009. It’s not a bad contract by any means (I expected Hairston to pick up more money), however he’ll be back for the Reds and is a good threat for 30 steals, 80 runs, double digit home runs and a .290 average. Hairston’s versatility is key here, as is can play any of the outfield positions as well (especially given that the team lost Ryan Freel back in December to the Orioles.) Hairston can also serve as a corner infielder if need be.

The irony about this deal is that the Padres signed his brother Scott Hairston to a 1.25 deal yesterday as well. Still, Hariston is a much better option than Willy Tavares.

Grade: B-

Baltimore made an interesting move today, inking Japanese free agent pitcher Koji Uehara to a two year deal worth about 10MM. Incentives could push this up around 16MM, however it’s a very low risk signing. Hopefully this will cajole Kenshin Kawakami to have interest in the O’s now as well.

I’ve said it before often on here, Baltimore has some intriguing arms coming up in the minors, names such as Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and Chris Tillman. And of course, last season’s Double-A rotation (Tillman included) was stacked. Their Double-A affiliate Bowie challenged for the Eastern League crown. In either case, the arms won’t be here for another year yet, so stop gap arms (like Mark Hendrickson) must be brought in to eat the innings. Signing these imports for two year deals isn’t a bad move on Andy MacPhail’s behalf. Due to the slow market and teams cutting back, there are many bargain arms that can be found, and it’s clearly a buyer’s market. Sooner or later, someone will scoop up Tim Redding and Braden Looper. (On an aside, BTBS wrote a great essay outlining why Redding is a bargain.)

To summarize, I like this signing. I wouldn’t mind another starter, and a backup catcher, which I think Baltimore is looking at currently. If anyone is interested, Uehara should fare as a high-end #4, low end #3 starter, pitching in the AL East. I’m guessing a 4.30 ERA for him in 2009. Marcel does not include him in their projections for 2009.

Admittedly, the past few nights I haven’t gotten much sleep. I’m not sure if these are correlated, however I read an interesting piece today on Baseball America, asking whether Pablo Sandoval should catch? Catcher is Sandoval’s natural position, and many people (at least in the fantasy baseball realm) would love to see Sandoval catch. Then again they’re set at the moment with their 95 RBI-man Bengie Molina, and of course have the #5 pick in last year’s Amateur Draft Buster Posey all but ready to go in two years.

Sandoval is one of the two young Giants that could end up making some serious fantasy noise in 2009 (the other being speedy second baseman Emmanuel Burriss.) Sandoval got most of his action last year at first base (putting up a nice .345/.357/.490 line), though he did catch eleven games behind the plate. In regards to where Bruce Bochy plays him in 2009, it’s yet to be seen. He’s a nice bat, don’t get me wrong, however he might not even make the team out of Spring Training next season. Currently on the team’s depth chart, Travis Ishikawa is the leading candidate to start at first on Opening Day. I’m also a fan of Josh Phelps as well, who I think will surprise many (he was blocked by Albert Pujols last year in St. Louis.)

In either case, Brian Sabean brought in some outstanding pitching (and also has some great arms in the minors about to make some noise as well.) He assembled a great bullpen. Now how about bringing in some offense to support the starters? The Giants need corner infielders, they’ve been needing them for the past couple years. I like Joe Crede, and at a 6MM contract for one year, I’d do it. I’d also offer 10MM to Adam Dunn and see if he bites (given Pat Burrell’s contract today, he might possibly do so.) In either case, I really like what the Giants are doing so far with their off-season. They desperately need to bring in some bats though; you can’t run an offense on Aaron Rowand alone.

I’ll go back to bed now.

The corner-outfielder, DH market finally made another glacial step forward today. Two hitters were signed today. The Cubs inked Milton Bradley (and his .999 OPS from 2008) to a three year deal for 30MM. And the Rays (believe it or not) inked Pat Burrell to a two year contract for 16MM. He’ll be the team’s everyday DH in 2009.

When I saw the Burrell deal, I was shocked. This was once again a genius move made by Andrew Friedman. At 8MM a year for a .870 OPS hitter, Burrell is a bargain. And he might be even more valuable next year since he won’t have to bring a glove out to the field. Any ways many people agree with this statement, and are projecting him to be a .260 hitter with 30 home runs in Tropicana Field. BTBS said it elegantly today about the beauty of the Burrell signing.

It’s difficult to improve a team that made it to the World Series and had a third-order Pythagorean record of 97-65. But by replacing Edwin Jackson with David Price, adding Matt Joyce as a right fielder and inserting Pat Burrell as the DH, the Rays have done just that.

They also added in the fact that Burrell will essentially be paid the same as Mike Cuddyer, the Twins’ right fielder. That is 8MM is buying a 120 OPS+ outfielder for the Rays, and a 95 OPS+ outfielder for the Twins. That is a viable point, however the main point that should be discussed with these two signings is draft pick compensation. Bradley was a Type B free agent, Burrell was Type A, according to Elias. The Rangers offered Bradley (who made 5MM in 2008) arbitration. He rejected it. The Phillies refused to offer Burrell arbitration (who made 14.25MM in 2008.)

Many people questioned whether the Phillies should have offered Burrell arbitration or not. The one caveat is that if Burrell would have accepted, the smallest the Phillies could have paid him (according to labor rules) would be 11MM in 2009. However in reality, he would have most likely commanded 16MM for next season. It made sense for the Rangers to offer Bradley arbitration, given how cheaply he was paid in 2008. The same theory applies to Raul Ibanez, a Type A whom the Mariners offered arbitration to. Ibanez was well-underpaid in Seattle at 5.5MM in 2008, and at least he’ll finally have a solid paycheck in Philly.

Say what you want about the Phillies signing Ibanez (many negatives, some positives), however the issue here lies with arbitration. I still think the Phillies should have made an offer to Burrell. They would have known by the first week of December if he would have accepted it or not. And judging by how the players union generally prefers free agency to arbitration (Jason Varitek is surely wishing he accepted the Red Sox’ offer), Burrell would have most likely rejected it. And the Phillies would then have the Rays’ late first round draft pick in 2009 as a result of this…

As we have learned, the market for bad-fielding corner outfielders (aka DHes) is saturated right now. And Bobby Abreu still expects some team to offer him 18MM a year? The Pat Burrell news couldn’t have been good for him. And with the Rays and Cubs now filling their holes on their roster, I can’t honestly think of a team that could use Abreu. The Mets (and maybe the Braves and Nationals) are the only options that I can think of.

Today was a busy day in baseball. I’ll touch on some of the other stories tonight, however I wanted to chime in with this interesting news item. Twins’ owner Carl Pohlad died today. He was 93 years old.

Pohlad was incredibly wealthy, listed in Forbes as the wealthiest baseball owner in sports. He was also #114 on the Forbes 400 for 2007. Granted with all of his assets, the Twins had a low payroll for many years. And everyone in the media dumped on him because of this.

I wanted to chime in on this, especially since this has been going on for about a decade now. However in all fairness, there’s only so much money that can be thrown at one team. When the team’s only drawing 16,000 fans a game, it doesn’t make sense to have a 100MM team payroll.

I didn’t know Pohlad personally, however the attacks on him by the press were unfair. He donated graciously to charity, and was an avid fan of baseball. He gave what he could to the Twins, however people tend to forget that baseball is a business. And the contraction rumor about him only infuriated many others, especially after he then put the team up for sale. But then again, the Twins at that time were not a marketable product.

Any ways long story short, the Twins have a new stadium coming, an incredible farm system, and with a good decade of winning baseball, things couldn’t be any brighter for the Twins. Yet many are still complaining about the Twins and their small payroll. To say it for the final time, the Twins are not a large market franchise. When you have teams in New York competing for the “best pitcher in the universe” (that is Johan Santana), small market teams cannot afford him. Still Pohlad did and contributed what he could to keep the Twins a competitive franchise, as evidenced in recent extensions to Mike Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan. Baseball lost a fine owner and a great capitalist today, and he will be missed.

I remember reading Baseball Weekly about ten years ago, and they had a piece in there about the “super agents” (I had this thing delivered to my parents’ place, back when it was only $0.75 an issue.) Any ways at this time, mammoth deals were being struck between players and teams. Alex Rodriguez getting 251MM from the Rangers, Derek Jeter getting 189MM from the Yankees, Manny Ramirez getting 160MM from the Red Sox, et al. I forget who the writer was (it might have been Bob Nightengale), however they portrayed the lives of the two super agents, who at the time were Scott Boras and Jeff Moorad.

Moorad with 2008 Presidential Candidate John McCain (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Boras had an impressive list of clients under his stable, however at the time so did Moorad (Matt Williams, Will Clark, et al.) Any ways long story short, Moorad took an executive position with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2004, and has since resigned as of this weekend. The reason why, he’s taking an ownership stake with the San Diego Padres (a divorce precipitated this team’s sale.)

Any ways long story short, my how the tables have turned. It’ll be interesting to see how Moorad deals with a number of things, from the team’s payroll constraints, to their GM Kevin Towers, to the rising salaries of his up-and-coming stars like Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez (his bargain contract is about to be up.) And of course, there’s the whole Jake Peavy saga. Personally I’m glad to see this happen. Padres fans need an owner who will bring a resurgent commitment to the team.

The Latest Brian Roberts Rumor

I wanted to chime in on one more rumor, spread around by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles and White Sox are talking trade for their (2007 All Star) second baseman Brian Roberts. The name that was brought up by Andy MacPhail was Gavin Floyd, a Maryland native who won 17 games with the White Sox in 2008. Ken Williams and the White Sox want to trade the two players straight up, however I expect MacPhail to ask for two more players at least. Floyd’s 2008 win total essentially doubled his career total in parts of four other seasons.

Granted I would love to see this deal, I know Floyd’s potential. Roberts is a free agent in 2009, Floyd is under team control for four more years (being arbitration eligible through his 2010-2012 seasons.) Roberts would essentially need an extension on Chicago’s end, and as Roch mentioned, the Orioles could then ask for their top Triple A second baseman Chris Getz. The White Sox are deep with middle infielders in their system, especially after drafting Gordon Beckham last summer.

So long story short, if I was MacPhail and I was offered four years of Floyd and six years of Getz for one of Roberts (plus Roberts’ 8MM salary coming off the books for 2009), would I make this trade? It would be an easy call for me, but knowing MacPhail he’d probably get Williams to throw in two more minor league players, much like how he did with the Erik Bedard and Ramon Hernandez deals. In other words, it’ll take three or four players built around Floyd to get one year of Roberts. Lunatic yes, but then again that’s how MacPhail rolls. And as an O’s fan I couldn’t be any happier.

I’ve seen this tactic used a good deal, and I’ll attempt to employ it here. It’s the infamous “Player A", “Player B” trick. Using 2008 stats, take a guess on who these two pitchers are:

• Player A: 7 W, 8 L, 133.2 IP, 5.45 K/9, 5.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
• Player B: 8 W, 10 L, 180.0 IP, 4.75 K/9, 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

If you guessed Mark Hendrickson as Player A and Daniel Cabrera as Player B, you are clearly correct. From looking at the stats above, both pitchers had similar 2008 campaigns. Cabrera’s strikeouts were down last year, but so were his losses (he lost 18 games in 2007.)

I’m not saying Hendrickson (a York, PA native like myself) is an improvement by any means, however he’ll help mitigate the loss of the innings that Cabrera ate. Both pitchers provided negative value for their teams (each costing their teams about 1.5 wins), however Cabrera was paid 2.8MM, Hendrickson 1.5MM. It was clear to see why Andy MacPhail pulled the plug on Cabrera (a ~10MM loss from last year.) He only regressed further in 2008 (as evidenced by his 5.61 FIP, wow.)

Long story short, Baltimore needs pitching, and Hendrickson provides essentially the same value as Cabrera, however at 1.5MM he’ll cost at least 1MM less than Cabrera (the smallest pay the Orioles could have gave him in 2009 was 2.5MM, according to the labor contract.) Still, Hendrickson alone won’t solve their pitching woes. I like Braden Looper, and I think a three year deal would be beneficial for his services. The same thing goes with Kensin Kawakami (apparently the O’s have an offer out for him), however anything over 10MM a year is a huge risk.

I know Baltimore fans are anxious and are wanting to see Andy MacPhail make some more moves. I’m glad that he’s staying the course. He inherited a hell of a mess in 2007. It took the O’s years to get into the mess, it’ll take them years to get out of it.

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.