Late Innings

So the Padres extended David Eckstein’s contract through 2010:

The Padres took another step toward the future yesterday by extending the contract of the second-oldest player on their active roster.

David Eckstein will return as the Padres’ second baseman in 2010.

The decision to extend Eckstein, who would have been a free agent at the end of the season, was announced before the Padres lost 7-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals before 38,156 at Petco Park.

He’ll make 1MM in 2010. I’ve made jokes about this before ad nauseum, especially in regards to the mainstream media’s infatuation towards him, but whomever covered the Saturday night shift at Rotoworld summed it up pretty nicely about baseball’s scrapiest player:

Eckstein somehow convinced Padres management that he deserved a raise, despite a lowly .255/.317/.325 batting line, one home run and only 38 RBI in 416 plate appearances. The little man earned just $850,000 in ‘09, but it appears grit and hustle still carry some value in the major leagues.

It’s a shame that we’re going to have to keep talking about Eck for another year, ugh…

Over the week, I read a few things about the Rockies as a team not having any real weaknesses… That claim is clearly viable, that is until Aaron Cook went on the DL. And Carlos Gonzalez is out for a week after cutting himself with a steak knife. The team just signed Jason Giambi and Russ Ortiz to add some veteran depth, and even with these moves I still really like this team.

Ubaldo Jimenez manhandled the Giants today. Granted everyone’s been talking about Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter for the NL Cy, but some consideration has to definitely be thrown to the Rockies’ ace.

Not to toot my own horn, but I wrote the following about Ubaldo back before the season started, declaring him my sleeper of the year:

I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts.

I compared him to a poor man’s Oliver Perez, who at the time just signed a lucrative three year deal with the Mets. Yes it’s true that Jimenez is pitching very well, it’s a shame that Oliver is not. In case anyone watched the Mets game today, he got destroyed by Phillies hitting.

In case anyone’s interested, Aubrey Huff is currently a -0.4 WAR player. That means he’s costing the Orioles 1.6MM on top of his 8MM salary. With this news we have the following trade:

The Detroit Tigers bolstered their offense for a pennant drive by obtaining first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday for a minor leaguer.

“I’ve been in last place basically my whole career, so this is an exciting time for me,” Huff said. “I’m looking forward to it.”

The Tigers began Monday leading the Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. The last-place Orioles obtained pitcher Brett Jacobson from Detroit and assigned the right-hander to Class A Frederick.

Jacobson is the Tigers’ 10th best prospect, being selected in the fourth round in last year’s draft. RotoWorld projects Jacobson as “an above average middle reliever and possible setup man.” For them to ship off a player with negative value for an intriguing talent, Andy MacPhail is clearly doing more than dumping salary here.

With tonight’s deadline to sign players drafted in the June Amateur Draft approaching, I wanted to bring up the contenders for next year’s #1 Draft Pick in June 2010:

I could have calculated the GB better, and I could also calculate Washington’s “magic number” to clinch this division, but then again it really doesn’t matter. The “Natinals” have been playing better, while Kansas City has been bad in the second half, Baltimore has yet to win a series since the All Star break happened. I’m not suggesting that Baltimore has a good chance at Harper, but if they continue to stink they’ll have this kid come next June.

Then again, as most people know, the key theme to the 2009 draft has been one word: signability. The top three draft picks, Steven Strasburg, Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate are all represented by … Scott Boras. And that Harper kid is also represented by … (drum roll please) … Boras.

Boras has stated before that he wanted to “revolutionize” how the draft works. In other words he simply wants to have his clients paid more. As most people know, he wants 50MM for Strasburg. Tate’s about to sign for 6MM, but he wants over 10MM for Ackley, a solid outfielder but only projects as a 15/15 hitter. The first two picks would have “record” bonuses, eclipsing whatever was paid to Mark Prior when drafted by the Cubs.

This past draft is also chock full of high school pitchers who want Rick Porcello money, Ackley’s UNC teammate Alex White who wants to be paid like Adam Wainwright (someone should tell him that he needs a 90 MPH fastball before that happens), and Aaron Crow, drafted by the “Natinals” last year but couldn’t agree to terms (I think they offered something like 3.9MM.) Crow pitched a year in the independent leagues, and was redrafted by the Royals who in turn offered him 3MM, which he is scoffing at. If this pitcher has brains and also is as polished as his left-handed counterpart Brian Matusz, he would be in Washington pitching right now. Matusz already has three major league starts under his belt.

I don’t understand why these amateur picks turn down top dollars? Remember Matt Harrington, offered millions of dollars by the Cubs, etc. He’s now changing tires at Wal-Mart for a living. Now I’m not suggesting that Crow or Strasburg will go the way of Harrington, but they are foolish to think that some team is going to sign them for more money the following year, not with (a) the current draft structure and (b) the economy the way it is. Strasburg is clearly the closest thing to the real deal, but if he’s turning down “record” contracts, something’s clearly wrong with the draft.

About a couple weeks ago, I wrote a glowing essay on why Baltimore fans should warm up to Felix Pie, their reserve outfielder who’s struggling in his first season as an Oriole. My argument was simple, look past the stats he put up during April. If you look at Pie from May 1st on to today, he’s a .308/.351/.495 hitter. No wonder he wouldn’t pass through waivers.

Up until last night’s blowout of the Angels, many fans would trash the Dave Trembley whenever Pie received an occasional spot start. Heck some fans were bitching that Andy MacPhail traded away Oscar Salazar instead of him. Sheesh.

I’m starting to see glowing support from many Orioles fans now for Pie, especially with struggles to Melvin Mora and Luke Scott, as well as injury concerns to Nolan Reimold. Hopefully last night’s cycle woke some fans up, Pie is (to paraphrase RotoWorld) “oozes” with talent. This kid should hopefully get more playing time now, and hopefully Baltimore will have their own King Felix soon. In the meantime however, my colleagues (the Orioles fans) aren’t getting any smarter.

I’ll cut right to the chase, I disagree with Joe Posnanski:

7. Alex Rios (Chicago White Sox). I originally had this as the second-worst contract in the game … but that was blowing this out of proportion. Several readers make the strong point that it really is not THAT bad, and I’m probably overreacting to the off-season he’s having now. Either way, this is the third deal where Ricciardi has hit the ejector button in the middle of the contract (B.J. Ryan and Frank Thomas coming first). At least this one, someone else picked up the tab — and yes, Kenny Williams will now be the one judged on how this contract turns out.

He makes a compelling case against J.P. Ricciardi and him doling out bad contracts. I agree wholehardedly with his claim, that is he handed out some bad deals, notably the Vernon Wells albatross of a contract. However Rios? I actually liked this move on behalf of the White Sox.

Rios has come a long way in his career. When he first came up, people thought that he’d never hit for power, based on the 1 HR that he hit in 2004 (over 426 AB!) His power eventually then started to climb, to the point where he hit 24 HR in 2007. His reward for that season, a seven year, 69MM contract extension, buying out the rest of his arbitration years, as well as some free agency years.

Wells is fast, on pace to steal 30 bases for two years in a row. While his defense is regressing, he might enjoy his move to Chicago. For one, he’ll have some protection in the lineup. And secondly, with him manning center all to himself for the next five years, this deal looks good for the White Sox. Erik Manning agrees.

Ken Williams is by far my favorite GM in all of baseball, simply due to the fact that he takes risks. His moves are always head scratchers (e.g. the Javier Vazquez trade, or the Jake Peavy deal), but this Rios deal is grand theft for the Pale Hoes. If Ricciardi made any mistake, it’s that he let Rios go for free. If the Jays wanted to dump salary, he should have sold him Wells instead.

So how about it, the White Sox get a 30-30 man in center for five years. What’s wrong with that? Yes his numbers are down this year, but I expect them to return. If Posnanski wanted to include a bad contract to his list, why didn’t he mention Torii Hunter? Speaking of aging center fielders with little upside, Hunter’s got 60MM coming to him over the next three years from the Angels. Coupled with his new injuries, it’s a shame that Bill Stoneman and company didn’t take out an insurance policy on their center fielder.

CNN’s Jon Heyman is at it again:

11. David Eckstein, Padres infielder: A bargain for 850 grand. Worth it for attitude alone.

Pull up the brakes. The great Heyman lists Eckstein as a great bargain who probably wouldn’t slip through waivers. To paraphrase Seth and Amy, really?!?

Using some nifty data from FanGraphs, we can produce the following chart:

WAR data provided by FanGraphs.com.

Going from the above graph, Eck will hurt you with his glove and with his bat (as evidenced by his .269/.327/.344 line.) However given the fact that he plays shortstop, that keeps his value above water. Eckstein is currently a 1/2 win player, or is worth roughly 2MM this year. If he gets shifted to another position (outside of catcher), his value is shot.

Eckstein is currently making 800K, so as of right now, the Padres have a 1.5MM surplus value in their “scrappy” infielder. Is this solid, maybe? I can think of better bargains out there. How about the recently-traded Cliff Lee? How about Longoria, Lincecum, etc.? I can think of many. They’d sure as hell slip through waivers…

Heyman also speculates in the hit-and-run piece that Alex Rios is over-valued, and as Dave Cameron proves, our fun-loving author is full of shit. Man, what I would give to have Heyman’s job…

With the non-waiver trading deadline coming and going, we can now look forward to see what players could potentially be moved (through waivers) in August. Baltimore has a slew of potential players, from Aubrey Huff to Melvin Mora to some of the older bullpen arms. It shouldn’t take much to pull those players from the roster, heck after today’s rant Mora probably punched his ticket out of town. Mora’s defense albeit is solid, but his power evaporated, he is nothing more than a singles-hitter, when that does happen.

With the veterans coming off the roster, this will mean more playing time for their young rising stars. That is the usual suspects that people know: Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. One player left out of the mix however is reserve outfielder Felix Pie.

Baltimore fans shouldn’t be too quick to run Pie out of Charm City.

Pie, acquired from the Cubs during the offseason for Garret Olson and a relief pitching prospect, won the starting outfield job after camp broke, however didn’t exactly hit the ground running, batting .157/.246./.216 in April. By that point Reimold took over the full-time job, and Pie was the subject of much scorn from Baltimore fans.

With Pie on the bench however, he was the subject of numerous trade rumors. Pie is out of options, and there’s no way that Andy MacPhail could slip him through waivers unexposed. The team dealt away Oscar Salazar for relief help to keep him on the roster. While many Baltimore fans have been calling for Pie’s head, his performance after his dreadful month of April has been clearly rewarding, as per Pinto, he’s been a very solid .300/.347/.457 since then.

Manager Dave Trembley has been struggling to find him at bats, but he’s been settling in nicely as the team’s #2 hitter, getting on base two more times in today’s slugfest. While people when thinking of young Orioles on the rise tend to forget that Pie is still around, he’s clearly starting to make more noise. He projects as a solid #2 hitter in the future… now the only problem is to figure out how to get enough at bats to him, Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. Also Luke Scott is still in the picture as well. For the Orioles, this problem is a good problem to have.

Yesterday at 4PM EST was the MLB non-waiver trading deadline. Big names like Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, and Heath Bell weren’t moved. However plenty of moves were made yesterday and days leading up to the deadline. Here’s my interesting analysis on the moves.

San Diego Padres traded Cla Meredith to Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore Orioles traded 1B Oscar Salazar to San Diego Padres.

This trade has me shaking my heads when it was made. Meredith is effective and induces ground ball outs, perfect for Baltimore. Salazar, while a solid hitter, is out of options. For Andy MacPhail to even be able to acquire something for Salazar, that alone is an accomplishment.

Edge: Baltimore

Indians get Minor leaguers – pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, INF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson. Phillies get SP Cliff Lee and LF Ben Francisco.

This move had me scratching my head as well. Lee is effective, an ace. The haul the Indians for for him is weak. Marson and Donald are going to be servicable, as is Carrasco, and Knapp might be as good as Josh Johnson, someday. However with super-prospect Carlos Santana coming up, Marson won’t have much of a starting role. Lee will rake in Philly, and Francisco is a pretty-good fourth outfielder. Mark Shapiro did not get full value for the ace.

Edge: Philadelphia

Cliff Lee is going to start paying off immediately for the Phillies. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Giants get 2B Freddy Sanchez, 1B Ryan Garko. Pirates get Minor league RHP Tim Alderson. Indians get Minor leaguer LHP Scott Barnes

I lumped these moves together, though they happened on separate days. The Giants surrendered good pitching prospects to redo the right side of their infield, with replacement-value players. The move of Alderson had me scratching my head, and Barnes should excel in Cleveland. Pittsburgh had to move Sanchez, albeit a solid player, but with a 8MM 2010 option that was causing trepidation amongst Pirate front office officials.

Edge: Cleveland and Pittsburgh

Mariners get SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell. Pirates get C Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, and three minor league RHPs Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.

I’ve always been a big fan of Snell, and him going out to the pitching friendly confines of Safeco is huge. It also helps that he’ll have great defense behind him, with Wilson also being brought on board. Wilson is solid and worth his money, but as many people have pointed out, there are cheaper glove men out there, Adam Everett being one in particular.

The Pirates meanwhile get a nice haul. The arms are power arms. Cedeno is useful, but shouldn’t start. Clement is intriguing. He reminds me of Andy LaRoche, a former top prospect for the Dodgers who didn’t pan out, also acquired last summer by Neil Huntington. I thought this trade over deep and am not sure which side I fall on, I like it for both teams.

Edge: Even

Pirates get RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and minor league infielder Josh Harrison. Cubs get LHP John Grabow and LHP Tom Gorzelanny.

Huntington was indeed busy, but this haul isn’t as solid as the group of players he got for his double-play tandem. Hart will be useful in their rotation, but I like the players the Cubs got. Garbow will be useful, and I’ve always been a Gorzelanny fan. Like Snell, he was raking at Triple A, and stashed at the back of the Cubs rotation could be good for him. He reminds me of Rich Hill, someone that had good success in 2007 and is trying to get his career back on track with another team.

Edge: Cubs

Rockies get LH/RP Joe Beimel. Nationals get Minor league prospects Ryan Mattheus and Robinson Fabian.

The Rockies upgraded their bullpen over the past few weeks, acquiring Betancourt from the Indians and recalling Chacin from Double A, and now acquiring Biemel from the Nats. However I feel that Mattheus is too big of a price for the solid lefty, due to be a free agent at the end of the year.

Edge: Nationals

Mariners get LHP Jarrod Washburn. Tigers get LHPs Luke French and minor leaguer Mauricio Robles.

This trade has been analyzed ad nauseum by many, and I agree with them entirely. The Tigers made this move out of desperation. Washburn’s ERA was helped out by a solid team defense, and he’s bound to regress in Detroit. I’m not saying he’s a bad pitcher, but he’s not an ace they’re expecting to receive. Six years of team control of French (plus a power arm) is a huge price to pay for the soon to be free agent starter. Good job Wayne Z.

Edge: Mariners

Twins get SS Orlando Cabrera. A’s get Minor league SS Tyler Ladendorf.

The Twins played the waiting game, not giving up Danny Valencia in the process. This move is huge, since the Twins are weak up the middle. I like this trade better than the one the Tigers made, since they gave up a fringe SS prospect. And Cabrera is starting to heat up too… hopefully this move will appease Mauer and Morneau.

Edge: Twins

The Twins made out well acquiring Cabrera. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Red Sox get C Victor Martinez. Indians get SPs Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price.

Martinez will be useful in Boston. He’ll be very helpful, and will hopefully wake up their dormant offense. He’s also under control and is affordable through 2010. The cost for him? Masterson will be useful in Cleveland, but Hagadone is the key to this trade. He has front line starter potential, and Price isn’t too bad himself. The Red Sox are trading from their surplus though, and Bard, Bowden, Tazawa, Buchholz and Anderson are staying put.

I’m curious to see what the Indians and Mariners rotations will look like come 2010.

Edge: Even

Marlins get 1B Nick Johnson. Nationals get Minor leaguer LH/SP Aaron Thompson.

The Marlins get a great OBP guy, with the Nationals throwing in the remainder of his salary to boot. They had to surrender a top pitching prospect though, but I like this move on both sides.

Edge: Even

Orioles get Minor leaguers 3B Josh Bell and RHP Steven Johnson. Dodgers get LH/RP George Sherrill.

Sherrill’s days of closing appear to be out-numbered, however he’s going back into his role when he was devastating in 2007 for the Mariners, as a specialist. He destroys left handed hitters, and if/when the Dodgers play the Phillies in the playoffs, he’ll be very useful. The cost for him though was a powerful and advanced third base prospect in Bell (especially that ISO above .200.) He could be a 30 HR threat soon. And Johnson isn’t too bad himself, having ties to Oriole broadcaster Dave Johnson.

I like this move for the Orioles, but it’s not as lopsided as many people say it is. If the Dodgers win the whole thing, then it’s worth it for them.

Edge: Baltimore

The Red Sox get Casey Kotchman. The Atlanta Braves get 1B Adam LaRoche.

The Braves have been playing well, and LaRoche’s bat will be useful. Kotchman’s glove is good, and he’s cheaper and under team control as well for some time, which is probably why the Red Sox were interested in him. Don’t expect him to start anytime soon however.

Edge: Even

Reds get 3B Scott Rolen. Blue Jays get 3B Edwin Encarnacion RH/RP Josh Roenicke, and RHP Zach Stewart.

I like this move on behalf of both teams. Rolen’s glove is outstanding, plus the Jays are paying the rest of his salary for the year. They’re on the hook for his 12MM salary next year though, but if he stays healthy he’s worth it. Encarnacion has a great bat, but shouldn’t be fielding the hot corner. He could be like Tony Bautista was for the Jays, a 30 HR threat.

Had the Reds traded Yonder Alonso, as originally was reported by FOX, this move would be grand theft by the Blue Jays.

Edge: Even

Padres get Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell. White Sox get SP Jake Peavy.

Honestly, when I first heard this trade announced on ESPN radio, I thought Jayson Stark was joking (especially since those idiots were taking steroids instead of trades, a big reason why I avoid ESPN radio.) Then the rumor came to fruition 30 minutes after the deadline, and Peavy and his agent confirmed the trade, by waiving his no-trade clause.

Peavy and Axelrod were shaking their heads, as was I. The White Sox are paying all of Peavy’s contract over the next three years, and they surrendered four prospects. I was a huge Poreda fan, and Richard should be useful.

The fact which made this trade strange is that Peavy is damaged goods. However when he’s healthy, he’s good. He’s very good. But I’m curious to see how he’ll do outside of Petco, since his home/away splits are different.

The most important part of this deal is that the Padres rid themselves of Peavy’s albatross of a contract, which admittedly looked like a bargain two years ago. The ace should be ready by September, and if the White Sox are still in the hunt, it might pay off for them. Ken Williams made a lot of moves that had me scratching my head, but many of those moves come back to make him look like a genius months later. I like this trade now for the Padres for the above reasons, but let’s see what happens a few months from now…

Edge: Padres

Any ways that’s all of the moves (I think.) Now it’s August, and we’ll hopefully see more trades, though these players will have to slip through waivers first.

I’ve been following the Roy Halladay sweepstakes closely. Today, the Blue Jays rejected an offer for their ace by the Phillies. As per MLBTR:

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that the Blue Jays have rejected the Phillies latest offer of Carrasco, Donald, J.A. Happ and outfielder Michael Taylor.

The Angels are out of it as well apparently:

(The Angels) were of the mind to remove themselves from the Roy Halladay talks, believing they were never going to come close to the Blue Jays’ asking price of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and a prospect such as outfielder Peter Bourjos.

The Blue Jays want both Joba and Phil Hughes in any trade with the Yankkes. And we have yet to see what the Brewers (the “darkhorse") are going to offer. With the non-waiver trading deadline a few days away, the Jays need to bring their demands. Take this offer that the Jays sent to Ruben Amaro Jr. for example: Kyle Drabek, Happ, and Dominic Brown. As BTBS points out, this trade would have gave the Jays a 36MM return on their investment. Yikes.

I know the Phillies want him, and the Jays have no reason to keep him. And I understand that going back to the World Series would be nice for the Phillies. But the Jays need to come down on their demands. Even if it’s ever so slightly.

In case anyone was living under a rock today, Matt Holliday was traded today, from the A’s to the Cardinals. Billy Beane and Co. receive a plethora of prospects.

Packing your bags for Big Mac land. (AP Photo)

I thought about this trade deep and hard, like a porn star would. Any ways the following is my (albeit drunken) analysis of this blockbuster… initially off the bat I thought this was a win for the A’s. Heck I thought the Brett Wallace swap for Holliday was a steal for the A’s, but Beane also got two prospects as well, a potential 4th outfielder and a potential 4th starter.

Now Wallace, that had me scratching my head… coming into the season, Sickels gave him an A- rating in his list of top 20 Cardinals prospects. He’s got good talent, but he’s clearly regressed. He might not be fit for long term at third (got Hillary Clinton thighs), and is probably going to be shifted across the diamond. He is major-league ready, but is clearly blocked behind some dude named Albert. He’ll fit in well in Oakland.

If he hits better than another St. Louis prodigy to come to Oakland (e.g. Daric Barton), then this deal is a win for the A’s. Using the Victor Wang chart I’ve alluded to yesterday, Wallace is going to be worth something close to 20MM over the course of his tenure as an A. In other words this is an easy win for Beane. Now if Wallace hits super-stardom, then this is grand theft. For the meantime though, I like this deal for the Cards. He makes Albert and Tony happy, adds some punch to their lineup, and can be used to grab a couple draft picks in next year’s draft (assuming they offer the free agent arbitration and he declines.) In the long term though, I like Oakland… actually this trade is an easy win for the A’s.

Now with the Cardinals upgrading their team, will the Brewers trade for Roy Halladay? Any ways back to drinking…

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

Do you read FanGraphs?…

11:26 PM: Man this was a brisk game. And I’m so glad that Carl Crawford got the MVP award… I think I reverse-engineered their formula for choosing the MVP. Take the two teams in the previous world series, and give it to the best player on the winning league’s team. Seriously, J.D. Drew strangely enough got it last year… any ways I’m going to bed. Good game.

11:15 PM: Mo is on to close this puppy out. Prediction: the MVP goes to either Mo, Papelbon, or Youk. I’ll bet your mom’s virginity on it.

11:13 PM: What a catch by Jayson Werth… wow.

11:08 PM: Wow, Joe Nathan blew the string out good outs (18) by the AL pitching staff. With two on base, let’s see if this game can go into extra innings, just like last year’s marathon.

11:02 PM: My personal fave Adam Jones knocked in the go-ahead run with a sac fly. If the AL wins this, will he be given the game MVP trophy? Granted, keep in mind that he doesn’t play for the Yankees or Red Sox… like with what happened last year with George Sherrill.

Earlier: I was at Texas Roadhouse watching most of this… some thoughts I have. Why weren’t Zack Grienke and Dan Haren the starters? I can understand that it’s being a toss-up between Haren and “the Freak” in the NL, but in the AL Grienke clearly has had more dominant numbers. I guess people don’t want to see Royals and Diamondbacks starters…

…Speaking of Roy Halladay, it was interesting to hear Ken Rostenthal go through some rumors tonight as to where he would land. He’s suggesting that Halladay will be traded, going either to the Phillies or Yankees. I thought the Yankees couldn’t take on more payroll. And I wonder what prospects they’d have to surrender. The Yankees don’t have the pitching prospects that the Jays crave, unless they give up their original “big three", that is Kennedy, Hughes and the six pound, eight ounce baby Joba.

…Not a big fan of the Obama fellow in office now. I hate his policies, but I love the fact that he’s a baseball fan. It was cool to see him in the press box. Joe Buck’s voice makes people commit suicide, but it was still cool seeing this. …Now his first pitch? Not impressed. It had no heat on it. Then again, if it did, he’d tell it to cool down. It’s letting off too many carbon emissions.

I’m watching the Home Run Derby and have been so far disappointed. Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder looked ok, then came Brandon Inge who drew the collar. The AL doesn’t have the best crushers out tonight, and I know many of them turn down the invitation due to superstition and such. However this game benefits charity, and the more home runs that are hit, the more that is donated. I never considered Inge much of a masher. He puts up 20 home run seasons, and I give him credit for doing so at Comerica, but he didn’t look good this evening. On that note, be glad that Ichiro turned down the invitation.

Hey, your’s truly will be live-blogging tomorrow’s All Star Game held in St. Louis. I’ve did this before, and the results were interesting. I got my case of beer ready.

Man, Chris Berman’s voice is annoying as ever tonight.

Watch the 2009 All Star Game Tuesday July 14th at 8PM EST on FOX.

Update: In case anyone didn’t notice, the Mets traded for Francoeur. This is just as bad as me hooking up with a 300 lb. girl with six kids.

Keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight, and I joked about Jeff Francoeur being traded earlier in the day, after that strange Betancourt deal went down. But still. Wow.

What the fuck is Omar Minaya thinking? Either that or I need some more Blue Moon.

This trade is causing me to scratch my head:

Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt was traded to Kansas City on Friday, giving the Royals a versatile infielder and Seattle a pair of minor league pitchers.

The 27-year-old Betancourt was hitting .250 with two homers and 22 RBIs in 63 games this season. He’s been on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma after straining his left hamstring, and will continue rehabbing at Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

The main pitcher that the Mariners got from the Royals of interest was pitching prospect Daniel Cortes, whom has been ranked as the team’s top pitching prospect by Baseball America and has third-starter potential. The other arm is a High-A throw-in, who throws hard enough to miss many bats. But why Kansas City has been after him for years has boggled my mind. What’s next, them acquiring Jeff Francoeur?

Betancourt’s .250/.278/.330 line is uninspiring, and his defense has been spotty this year, particularly his range. But as Shyster so cleverly puts it:

The Royals are probably the only team to which Betancourt could have gone and represented an upgrade at short.

I sure as hell hope that the Mariners are throwing the Royals some salary relief, since Betancourt is owed 10MM for the remainder of his contract. Great move by the M’s; Ronny Cedeno finally gets his chance to become the full time #6 spot on the diamond.

Again more on Matt Hobgood, I’m seeing glowing reviews on the kid. From AOL’s Fan House, who had a roundtable discussion on the draft with editors from the likes of Baseball America and such:

Klima said the Orioles might take some heat for picking Southern California prep righty Matt Hobgood at No. 5, but he liked the selection. He’s compared him to Matt Cain.

Wow, that’s a comparison I like, much better than the Sidney Ponson ones. Now was this really a “surprise” pick, or did the Orioles know what they were doing:

“I think they saw a right handed staff anchor, which is why they went for him,” Klima said. “I know they were on him pretty good all year. It wasn’t a fly-by-night sign-ability pick. They did like him. I’m sure they are thinking they have Brian Matusz (the No. 4 pick from last year) left and Hobgood from the right. Baltimore fans are surprised he went that high, but most people didn’t think he’d get out of the first 10.”

Just because Hobgood didn’t land in the first round of many “expert” mock drafts (sans Jim Callis) doesn’t mean that he was a sign-ability pressure pick (see Pittsburgh and Sanchez.) Hobgood has excellent peripherals, and if he gets a change up in his repitoire, he could be tough. As I said yesterday, hopefully he won’t wait until the eleventh hour to sign, and he can get into the Orioles’ system as soon as possible.

As it turns out, other teams wanted Hobgood too, since he would have easily been a Top 10 draft pick. I’m just surprised that he flew under the radar like he did. I guess Joe Jordan and his scouting staff know more about talent evaluation than the casual fan does. Now if Hobgood can be just as good as Cain, I’ll tip my glass to their front office.

When I get a topic, I usually cover it ad nauseum. In that case, I wanted to delve more into the Matt Hobgood drafting by the Orioles. Was it a signability issue? I’m not sure. We’ll never know.

I was reading Keith Law’s piece today, and he was criticizing the Pirates for taking Tony Sanchez at #4. The Pirates had their pick of high school arms to go after, like Jacob Turner, Zack Wheeler and Tyler Matzek. They instead chose a catcher with little upside. I saw somewhere that if he hits .250 with 12 homers they’ll be happy (honestly that’s not bad production in my book.)

Last year the Pirates broke the bank and took Pedro Alvarez. The main similarity between this year is that both players were advanced college players, with Alvarez from Vanderbilt and Sanchez from Boston College. The same thing applies to Brian Matusz, whom the Orioles paid out 3.4MM to after drafting him fourth last year. The main difference between Matusz and the three aforementioned high school arms is that Matusz was highly advanced, coming from the University of San Diego (not to be confused with San Diego State where Mr. Strasburg came from.) He’s currently ready to be moved to Double-A Bowie.

Most of the top picks from last years draft were from college, with exception to Tim Beckham and Eric Hosmer. This year it seemed it was high school heavy talent.

I’m not Joe Jordan, but I can understand why he took Hobgood. High school arms can go many ways. Granted Rick Porcello is an interesting (and successful) case, but the franchise has been burned before by taking high school arms (e.g. Adam Loewen.) Hobgood has a plus fastball and a plus slider, but he needs to develop a breaking pitch. The Orioles don’t need him immediately, but he might be an interesting option four years from now.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. The Porcello contract set a bad precedent, and now the flood gates have opened with more and more high school arms who can dial into the high 90s seeking big money. The slot recommendation doesn’t matter, and even with it being dropped 10% due to the economy, Scott Boras will hold out until his clients get the top dollar possible.

I haven’t written here in a while. It’s a long story, no doubt. However I wanted to discuss one of my most favorite topics, the MLB Amateur Draft. I know to some people like Keith Law and John Sickels, today is a national holiday for them (actually it’s more of a weekend, given the three days of the draft.) For me, it’s another day of drinking, though not as excessive as Flag Day.

Anyone with their right mind knew that the Nationals were going to take Stephen Strasburg, it’s a given. And we are all ready to watch the contract negotiations unfold with Scott Boras in the picture. My popcorn is ready. The Mariners took UNC 1B/CF Dustin Ackley with the obvious #2 pick. Honestly I would have liked to see him fall down to the #5 spot (which the Orioles had), but he was clearly the best hitter in the draft. And with Scott Boras as his “advisor", like Strasburg he could easily command 10MM in guaranteed money. I saw Ackley play this weekend Sunday against South Carolina, and liked what I saw. Great batting eye, great defense (especially when he moves back to CF after the injury heals), however it might take some time for his power to develop.

…

The first four picks of the draft were rightly predicted, however the Orioles surprised me by taking Matt Hobgood. From what people are writing, he’s a big kid who’s projected to be a power pitcher in the late innings. The Orioles could have taken Zack Wheeler (as I expected), but I think signability played a role here. Baltimore’s system is loaded with young pitching, but Wheeler would have fit nicely (in the big leagues by 2012.) San Fransisco immediately took him with the next pick (and he looks nice with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson in the system as well.)

If Baltimore hadn’t taken Wheeler, I thought about (UNC SS) Grant Green as a possibility, but then he didn’t fit the mold as a typical defensive shortstop that Andy MacPhail wants. I really would have liked them to get Wheeler, and I’m curious to know the motivations why he wasn’t picked. From what Rich Lederer wrote in today’s live blog:

Hopgood was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year yesterday. He is a big bodied pitcher who can also hit. Baltimore clearly liked him better than any other team. He is committed to Cal State Fullerton but is likely to be a fairly easy sign at this spot.

Still him and Marc Hulet were just as surprised as I was. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t question Joe Jordan, whose done an excellent job as the scouting director for the Orioles in the past four years, but this move has me scratching my head.

Then again the economy clearly played a role here. I’ve never before seen so many high school arms seeking Rick Porcello money (a bad precedent the minute it was set by Detroit.) But then again that didn’t stop many teams today, especially Detroit (again), who took Justin Turner at the #9 spot (and he could command 7MM by the August 17th deadline.)

***

Now back to the main story, the Nats took Strasburg. What would it take to sign him? I’d offer him 15MM right off the bat and leave the offer on the table. That’s what everyone is expecting, and I feel that it is clearly fair. He won’t get 50MM (sorry Jon, Boras Corporation contractor), not in this economy. There have been stories galore leading up to today which shown the #1 pitching picks from years back… the best of the bunch was Andy Benes, a mediocre Padres pitcher who compiled a .500 winning percentage in his career. His brother Alan also pitched in the National League, and like his brother was a .500 pitcher (29-28 over eight seasons.)

Outside of Strasburg, we might see Ackley get 10MM, and I think that’s a strong possibility. Still, in looking at this draft, it was clearly top heavy. Last year’s draft showcased more pure hitters, while this one showcased tons of high school arms. Still I expect most of these players to wait until the last minute to sign, like last season. Granted some first round picks from last year signed quickly, like Buster Posey (Giants), Tim Beckham (Rays) and Kyle Skipworth (Marlins.) This year might be different. I expect the Pirates to sign Tony Sanchez quickly, and the same thing goes with the Orioles and Hobgood. Maybe that’s a good thing, since Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters waited until the 11th hour to sign in years past. Hopefully he’ll sign quickly and will be playing ball in the rookie leagues by Summer’s end.

Is the shit motherfuckers. He was the Minor League pitcher of the year for the O’s in 2008, and I’ve been clearly drinking in 2009.

Major League Debut mfs.

Strange stat of the day, Kansas City leads the majors in runs allowed, allowing only a paltry 21 runs. Conversely speaking, they have also scored the fewest amount of runs in the majors as well (touching plate only 18 times!)

Now on to the brawn, Baltimore is fifth the majors in runs scored, crossing the plate 43 times. They are also fifth in the majors with runs allowed, allowing a whopping 45 runs. It’s not as bad as Cleveland, and it’s been a well-known fact that Baltimore’s bats can rake. Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and co. are doing their jobs, it’s the pitching staff that isn’t. Now for kicks, if we could just supplant the Royals’ rotation and bullpen in Baltimore, we’d have a pennant team that will probably win about 125 games.

In case anyone’s watching, the Rockies’ young combo of Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez have only allowed one earned run in 13 innings. The combo has struck out 14 hitters in the process. While the “FU combo” has been dominating, they’re clearly the best (and healthiest) pitching prospects that have come up in the past decade for the Rockies. Adding more immaturity to this joke, the FU combo is pitching to a tune of a 0.69 ERA.

The mixed-bag writers at RotoWorld are channeling the spirit of Rush Limbaugh, in referring to Diamondbacks’ manager Bob Melvin play of the talented, and young Justin Upton:

Upton is likely to remain just about worthless if this is how manager Bob Melvin wants to use him. It’s not just sitting him every other day, but it’s also the decision to bat him eighth, guaranteeing that he sees a heavy dosage of breaking balls while hitting in front of the pitcher. It’s like Melvin wants to see him fail.

Seriously. Even after a few beers, I’m still not buying this claim. Upton is talented no less, however he’s as green as a Barack Obama energy policy.

The Orioles will shatter the major league record for runs scored plus runs against. It’s just a hunch. Will you go over or under on 1,700?

I thought this was an interesting story to come up today, an interesting Opening Day indeed. Seattle’s first round draft picks from the last three drafts, that is Brandon Morrow (2006), Phillippe Aumont (2007) and Joshua Fields (2008), could all find themselves in the M’s bullpen by the end of the season. Granted I know that Morrow and Aumont were drafted as starters, but Bill Bavasi and the team’s scouting department grabbed Fields in hope of him being their future closer. They’re all outstanding arms, don’t get me wrong, however it’s interesting that these three prospects ended up in the same situation. Morrow is the team’s closer going forward (due to a diabetes issue), and these two complementing arms could constitute an excellent bullpen in Seattle. Another unexpected consequence of the Bavasi administration…

Updating Sabathia

I’m watching the O’s/Yanks currently, and Baltimore has plated three runs against the Yankees’ 161MM man C.C. Sabathia. Jeremy Guthrie looks very sharp, and apparently has shaken off his rough Spring. It’s a shame that Cliff Lee couldn’t do the same thing himself today…

Please release Adam Eaton.

Sincerely,
Mike

So the Marlins acquired Hayden Penn today (I honestly thought this was an April Fools’ joke when I first saw it.) It was essentially a swap of players who are out of options who probably wouldn’t pass through waivers. Some of the moves that the Marlins are making confuse me. It started last night with them releasing Dallas McPherson. Tossing the political barb aside from the piece ("the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News"), the main point here is that Emilio Bonifacio is the third baseman.

I agree with many that they should have moved Dan Uggla to third a month ago (and installed Bonifacio at second) if they were playing for defense, but this move essentially leaves them in the same situation that the L.A. Angels have, which is no power at the hot corner. They moved Jorge Cantu to first, and also acquired Ross Gload today from the Royals (a big head-shaking move.) Wow.

***

I’m glad the Orioles at least got something for Penn, whom I think will make out well in the National League. I understand that the term “top prospect” has been floated around in regards to Penn. Keep in mind that this is the Sid Thrift Orioles. Penn at least landed on Prospect Top 100 lists across the country, but he wasn’t the pitching prospect that Brian Matusz or Chris Tillman is. John Sickels regards Penn high however, when asked the question if he sees another John Maine developing in Penn:

I can see that, yes, though the parallel is inexact as I think their styles of pitching are rather different and the things that have held Penn back are different than the things that held Maine back.

When Penn first came up in 2005, he was fed to the wolves as a 20 year old. He started out well, and was very good for the first month or so, then fell apart. 2006 was a disaster, and he hasn’t been in the majors after that. With the Marlins he’ll at least make the roster.

I’m looking today at all the pitchers that are being rushed into rotations across the country. We have Trevor Chahill and Brett Anderson in Oakland, James McDonald in Los Angeles, Jordan Zimmerman and Shairon Martis in Washington, and Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond in Toronto. Had it not been for the rotation depth in Atlanta, they probably would have had Tommy Hanson in their rotation as well. Oh, and Rick Porcello made the Tigers’ rotation as well (Detroit doesn’t like their talent sitting around apparently, with their 2008 draft pick Ryan Perry making the bullpen.)

I saw what rushing a prospect can do to a young arm in Penn. Hopefully the same fate would fell these young arms as well. In regards to the infielder that the Orioles got back from Florida, I like Robert Andino, who fits into Andy MacPhail’s shortstop mold (all glove, bonus points hit.) He could potentially be a good long-term fit for the club, since they’ll only have Cesar Izturis through 2010. Now hopefully he won’t become the next Luis Hernandez.

There was a piece up from Ken Rosenthal today, speaking about the Phillies and Adam Eaton:

The Phillies released right-hander Adam Eaton with $9.15 million on his contract earlier this spring, but they’re apparently unwilling to make the same move with outfielder Geoff Jenkins, who has $8 million left on his deal.

Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies’ first-year GM, is in the perfect spot to lobby for Jenkins’ release, one rival executive said — the club is coming off a World Series title, and Jenkins, like Eaton, was signed by Pat Gillick, the team’s previous GM.

Phillies president and CEO David Montgomery, however, is unwilling to “eat” a combined $17.15 million, another source said. Evidently, Montgomery drew the line with Eaton.

Apparently Montgomery is still hungry, since he’s ready to now eat the money due to Jenkins:

Just got word that the Phillies have released outfielder Geoff Jenkins.

Does this mean Gary Sheffield is on his way?

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said he would talk later.

To update everyone’s score cards, Sheffield, Jenkins and Eaton are out. Gary Matthews Jr.? My guess is that he’s the next to go. 34MM is a lot of coin to swallow here, however he’s currently the Angels fifth outfielder. The same theory could also be applied to the Dodgers and Juan Pierre, also in year three of his massive deal.

The right side of the Orioles outfield looks fantastic. It’s athletic, fast, and will be running down many a fly ball. Couple it with an above-average Felix Pie (at least a 2.0 WAR player), and the outfield is one of the best in baseball. Jones, Pie and Markakis could all be center fielders, however Jones is the deep man, with the other two guys flanking him on each side.

Jones is having a great Spring, as is Markakis. Both players have expressed their desire to run the bases more in 2009 as well, and I’d expect more stolen bases from them. Markakis, being arbitration-eligible for the first time, got a new six-year contract two months back. Jones is looking forward to salary arbitration at the end of this season. In either case, both players should be plating similar numbers in 2009:

2009 Markakis Projection: .315 AVG, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 105 R, 18 SB, .395 OBP, .505 SLG

2009 Jones Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 27 SB, .345 OBP, .465 SLG

I have strong projections for both players, and wouldn’t be surprised if both players stole more bases in 2009. Markakis’ RBI dropped last year, however his walks and OBP rose. He got on base more, and as a result, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora each drove in over 100 runs. Markakis’ home run totals dropped last year, but he slugged nearly 50 doubles. Markakis should be fine, and I expect him to be better this year, especially since he’s cutting back on his strikeouts.

In regards to Jones, I don’t expect him to exhibit the same level of patience that Markakis has, but I expect him to be above-average as well. The average centerfielder has a .780 OPS. Many projections have him around there, I have him at .810. I think Jones will be great in 2009, and while the power hasn’t quite developed yet, he’s still a very useful late-round draft choice. While Markakis is a fourth round draft choice this year, I expect Jones to be in the fifth or sixth rounds in 2010.

Jayson Stark of ESPN also agrees. He has Jones and Markakis on his All-Bull Market team.

Larry, a.k.a. Chipper Jones gets a new contract today:

Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves agreed Tuesday to a $42 million, three-year contract extension through 2012, a deal with an option that could become worth up to $61 million over four seasons. The agreement virtually guarantees that the 36-year-old Jones will play his entire career in an Atlanta uniform.

I saw the news about this late last night, and was spending the whole evening trying to think of a dollar amount. Yes, 42MM is well below market value, and I expected it to be closer to the 54MM that Ryan Howard got from the Phillies this year. On the whole I love this move, and am glad to see that Jones will remain with the Braves for the rest of his career. I know he’s injury prone, but over the last two years, he’s been worth 15 WAR. Good god.

I got a few emails today about a few players people want to see me project (yes I’ll get to Oliver Perez in due course.) Here’s one I wanted to project quickly yesterday, but got too drunk to write about.

Warning, he got a new contract. (source delawareonline.com.)

Now I know what everyone’s thinking… the Phillies’ front office locked up Howard until he’s a free agent, and people expect his production to curtail? I don’t see it that way. Yes his OPS has dropped off linearly (from 1.084 in 2006, to .976 in 2007 to .882 in 2008.) Will this trend continue? Not exactly, I think he bottoms out here.

Yes his peripherals suck, but he hits home runs still (150+ during his full three seasons) and drives in runs to make Jon Heyman happy.

2009 projection: .265 AVG, 600 AB, 52 HR, 145 RBI, .895 OPS, Strikeouts aplenty, 35 SB

Just kidding about the steals, however Howard is going buck wild this spring. But did anyone notice that he hit four triples in 2008! Willy Taveras stole about 70 bases last year and only reached half that total.

Alfredo Simon is apparently the Orioles’ fifth starter after tonight’s line against the Mets. Through six innings of one run ball, Simon now has a sparkling 1.13 ERA. For someone who was late to camp with visa issues, he’s putting on quite of a show. Now the dilemma that arises is that… he has options. Brian Bass and Hayden Penn do not, and if exposed to waivers will most likely be picked up. My suggestion, put Bass in the “deep end” of the rotation, Penn in the, um ‘pen (hahaha, I fucking, haha) and Adam Eaton back on the open market. Problem solved, and team ERA saved.

The nightly update writer at RotoWorld might disagree:

Simon appears likely to land in the rotation with his ERA sitting at 1.13 over 16 innings. Still, he’s a pretty horrible bet for the season. Simon has never had any success outside of A-ball, and his career ERA in Triple-A is over 6.00.

Man that was harsh. I’ve been studying Simon pretty hard since he’s been in Baltimore, and heck, even wrote this intelligent, intoxicated essay.

Clay Buchholz is out in the cold, in regards to a rotation spot in Boston. The rotation is stacked, with Theo Epstein bringing in affordable veterans Brad Penny and John Smoltz. However Buchholz is an injury away from a spot at the back end of the rotation. Of course, if Tim Wakefield gets hurt, or starts out ineffective, Buchholz will get a chance to prove himself again.

Last year was a wash for Buchholz, though we could possibly have attributed it to his breakup with Erica Ellyson. As a result, he went 2-9 with a 68 ERA+. Ouch.

2009 Projection: 10W, 155.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 137 SO (7.95 K/9), 41 BB (2.38 BB/9), 1.29 WHIP

Sorry, Buchholz is too good of a talent for me to give up on. I think he’ll rebound in fashion in 2009, and be right behind Jon Lester in the 2010 rotation. He’s clearly making his case this spring as well, giving up only one earned run in 19.2 IP. He has 15 SO to go with that as well.

The Scott Boras Corporation comments on the Steven Strasburg situation:

The Nationals do indeed have history on their side. The precedent has long been set that $10 million is the ceiling. The leverage is very limited for these amateur players since no other league is comparable. If college players don’t sign, they can return to college and hope for better a year later, or they can go to an independent league. None in the past have tried playing overseas, or even using that as leverage, but nothing can be ruled out in this once-in-a-generation case.

Boras apparently caught wind of the stories circulating last week regarding Strasburg, and apparently likes what people are speculating. For him to snag 50MM for an amateur client is a win win for the mighty agent. This is clearly an aggressive piece from Boras. Boras fires this warning shot about Strasburg as follows:

A couple top collegians represented by Boras have declined to sign after being selected and offered million-dollar bonuses, including J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek. But only rare players such as those two have the fortitude to try it.

Boras essentially states that Strasburg will break all sorts of records with his signing. He’s going to get his money, good economy or bad. Or as he puts it in closing:

The Nationals have the money (Ted Lerner has been estimated to be baseball’s richest owner at about $4.5 billion, though in this falling economy it’s difficult to gauge anyone’s true net worth), and they certainly have the need. But they also have history on their side. That history says amateur players get $10 million tops. Strasburg should beat that figure. But the question is by how much.

Is it just me, or is having Scott Boras in charge of MLB rumors considered a conflict of interest?

It’s Fast Projection week here at Late Innings. I’ll try to run through as many projections as I can before Opening Day starts. Any players you want projected? Send them my way and I’ll do my best to get them up.

The Tigers’ Opening Day starter regressed slightly last year, after winning 35 games his first two years of his career. His fastball tailed off last year, to an average speed of 93.6 MPH (after being around 95 MPH the first two seasons.) Could that be the reason why his WHIP was high (1.40) or that his BABIP (.305) was its highest it has been in his career?

2009 Projection: 13 W, 210.0 IP, 3.85 ERA, 65 BB (2.78 BB/9), 175 K (7.50 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

Verlander was a fourth round pick in many fantasy drafts last year, and he disappointed in all formats. I’ve seen him go in the fourteenth round (on average) in some drafts. In other words, Verlander is a solid buy low candidate. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland is impressed with what he’s seeing from his ace this Spring.

The Tigers, if kept the way they are, should be a team that scores around 800 runs, and wins about 83 games, even with the pitching staff in disarray as it is. However a fire sale (due to the poor economy) would change everything. If that happens, the wins and offense in Detroit would take a hit, and that would in turn suppress the number of wins that Verlander will achieve in 2009.

Peter Gammons of ESPN wrote about the Dodgers 21 year old starter today, currently slated as their #3 starter. RotoProfessor smells breakout with this pitcher, as do I:

2009 Projection: 14 W, 195.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 208 SO, 75 BB, 1.35 WHIP

He’ll be the ace of the Dodgers come 2010.

Update: RP is projecting Kershaw to have 190 SO this year at a 12% rate. I think that probability is much higher than many believe… seriously. Edison Volquez whiffed 206 hitters last year. Who saw that happening?

Due to a few trades (e.g. Matt Holiday) and injuries, Hamilton is suddenly a first round fantasy draft choice. He went twelfth in my one league (auto-picker took him for me the day I was hungover.) Yeah the Rangers have a beast of a lineup, and it’ll look even better for them in 2009 than it did last year. Hamilton is just coming into his game, and I expect his speed to raise his status even further.

2009 Projection: .299 AVG, 41 HR, 135 RBI, 110 R, .395 OBP, .555 SLG, 17 SB

You heard it here first, Hamilton will be a top five fantasy pick come the start of the 2010 season.

It’s official, Brett Gardner has won the Yankees’ center fielder job. This will clearly cut into at bats for Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Gardner didn’t get on base much, but he can run, and plays solid defense. His power display this Spring possibly contributed to this title, however I doubt it’ll hold over the season. Cabrera also made a strong case this spring as well, but he’s suddenly a candidate to be traded.

2009 Projection: .265 AVG, 500 AB, 134 H, .315 OBP, .345 SLG, 3 HR, 27 SB

Gardner could possibly get 500 AB, he could get 200 AB, depending on the mood of the day from the Hank Steinbrenner. I’m leaning on the prior case. In either case, he’ll be buried somewhere near the bottom of the lineup, and rightfully so. The best team however would have Derek Jeter in center field. But due to political reasons, that’s not going to happen, leaving the Yankees with one expensive bench.

Gardner is the mirror image of the White Sox’s Jerry Owens, though Garnder brings a better stick to the plate.

In case anyone is watching, Kansas City Royals infielder Mark Teahen is having a torrid spring. Granted I don’t expect him to have a 1.500 OPS for the year, but I do expect him to break out (as I’ve been saying for two years now.) He went from utility man on the Royals, to their starting second baseman. He’s made a case this spring, as has the Royals’ offense, though Teahen didn’t participate in today’s latest slugfest.

2009 Projection: .290 AVG, 550 AB, 160 H, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB

Am I being generous? Yes slightly. However from the show that he’s put on this spring, he’s definitely worth a take on any fantasy roster.

We have a week before Opening Day, and I’ll celebrate the week by trying to cram in as many of these “fast projections” as I can.

The Orioles signed Koji Uehara to a two year, 10MM deal back in Janaury. He’ll be their #2 starter this year. He has outstanding control, with a fastball that will stay in the 85-88 MPH range. He was off-injured most of last year, and spent some time out of action this Spring as well. Still he’s apparently fine and is set to pitch the second game of the season against A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.

2009 Projection: 185.0 IP, 10 W, 4.20 ERA, 25 BB (1.21 BB/9), 95 SO (4.62 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

Uehara will give up his share of hits, but he’ll offset that figure with his low walk totals (which I project to be the lowest BB/9 in the majors, for starters with 160 IP or more pitched.) In either case that should translate into a nifty WHIP for him (and is a solid fantasy sleeper in this category.) My advice, give him a few weeks and stash him on your fantasy roster if he’s off to a hot start. Still, an injury could derail all of our plans here…

I did this back before, when there were oddly enough two Ryan Bruans in the majors. I wanted to do the same thing back when there were two Bobby Joneses pitching as well. In either case, there are a pair of Josh Fieldses in the majors, one is a closing prospect for the Mariners, the other is a third baseman for the White Sox.

Starting with the infielder, Peter Gammons of ESPN said the following about the slugging infielder:

Josh Fields hit 23 homers in 100 games for the White Sox in 2007, but his 2008 season was a waste because of right knee problems. The former Oklahoma State quarterback finally gave in and had knee surgery. He also underwent LASIK eye surgery, and he claims it has made a significant difference in seeing the ball this spring as he opens the season at third base.

Surgery will quite possibly help him somewhat, however it was the departure of Joe Crede that played the most to his advantage. He’ll go deep from time to time, however the strikeouts will put him in Ozzie Guillen’s dog house from time to time.

2009 Outlook: .255 AVG, 525 AB, 31 HR, 95 RBI, ass-load of strikeouts

He’s set to take in a good chunk of playing time in Chicago this year. Yes, Dayan Viciedo is there to put pressure on him, however Paul Konerko’s struggles could also play in his favor as well.

***

The Mariners (under Bill Bavasi) burnt the 20th overall pick in last year’s Amateur Draft on a closer, drafting Joshua Fields. He signed a month ago, and then at that point people started to speculate as to whether he’ll be closing for the M’s at sometime this year. The big news of today, that’s not going to happen.

I like what David Pinto wrote about this, comparing the situation to the one that Jonathan Papelbon faced a few years ago. Brandon Morrow has ridiculous stuff, and I’ve always wanted to see him as a starter. However given the forearm issues, maybe having him close is the best for both him and the team. Fantasy owners of Morrow must have been happy to hear this news today (he is NOT available in any of my leagues, and is owned in 89% of ESPN’s leagues.) Still this move essentially doomed Fields to remain in the minors for the year. However, the possibility of him being up in September should not be out of the picture at all…

So much news over the past few days about (Pirates’ prospect) Jose Tabata. Actually most of it revolves around his wife. To get everyone up to speed on the story:

Under his own insistence, Pirates prospect Jose Tabata wrote and delivered a statement on Friday concerning the kidnapping charges his wife, Amalia Tabata Pereira, faces and the recent revelations that much of Tabata’s relationship with her is now known to have been built on her calculated fabrications.

Pereira is accused of kidnapping a 2-month-old girl in Plant City, Fla., on Monday after posing as an immigration officer. An Amber Alert was issued for the missing infant, Sandra-Cruz Francisco, later that evening. An anonymous call to the Manatee County Sherriff’s Office on Tuesday led police to a strip mall in Bradenton, Fla., the city where the Pirates hold Spring Training, where the baby was found and handed over to law enforcement unharmed.

Tabata is a 20 year old outfield prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates. His wife (at the time of the arrest) is 43. The two met over two years ago, and just recently married back in January of 2008. The article elaborates on that fact as follows:

Tabata fell into a situation where he was taken advantage of by Pereira while a teenager adapting to life in a foreign country. Tabata was 18 when he met his then-41-year-old wife in Tampa, Fla., as a Yankees Minor Leaguer. The two married in January 2008.

In other words, we have a classic case of a cougar attempting to catch herself some prey. I’m 27, would I have done the same thing if pressed into that situation? Well lets lay down the facts about Tabata’s wife. When she started the hunt, she was 41 years old. For XKCD readers, we can use the following formula to calculate the minimum age guy she can date:

( Math.Floor($age/2) ) + 7

I added the floor function to decrease the age even further. Any ways plugging in the variables (or variable as I should say), Tabata can’t go younger than 27. She bagged herself a 18 year old high-ceiling prospect. She’s clearly violating the rules of nature here. On the other side of things, the youngest girl I can date is a 20 year old. That’s good to know. Still, not to sound immature and such, what was Jose thinking? Seriously.

TBO.com, Tribune photo by JASON BEHNKEN.

As everyone knows by now, the Orioles optioned top catching prospect Matt Wieters to Triple A Norfolk yesterday. For most people near Baltimore, this isn’t a surprise, since the team will get a seventh year of service from Wieters if he’s brought up at the right time (mid May.) Granted he’ll most likely have Super Two status, but that’s not a problem for me.

There were a few comments around the blogosphere about this. Shyster’s was classic, however I wanted to cite something from Baseball Musings:

I really wonder how much holding back Longoria helped in him signing a long-term contract. I’m guessing you offer any first-year player a nice, long-term deal, he’s going to take it. If the Orioles came to Wieters with a seven-year, $50 million deal, he’s signing on the dotted line. Instead, Baltimore plays games with service time, instead of getting someone who might bring the fans out into the lineup.

As many people recall, Evan Longoria signed a six year deal (for 17MM) within days after his callup last April (it can grow to nine at 45MM.) It’s a great move for Tampa Bay, however there was some risk attached to it initially. Many fans loved the move, Scott Boras however naturally hated it. The reason why? The owners are getting top talent at below-market prices.

I disagree with David Pinto’s comment, and fully expect Wieters to go year to year. The reason why, he’s represented by Boras. Boras has the best catching prospect to come along in two decades under his umbrella, why would he want to lock up this kid as soon as he can. Wieters has time, and if Boras takes him year to year, he’ll maximize his earnings.

Take Mark Teixeira. The Rangers offered him a eight year, 140MM deal a couple years ago. Boras shrugged it off, and the Rangers (knowing that they weren’t going to be able to keep Tex) dealt him to the Braves for a slew of prospects, which include Jarrod Saltamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Netfali Feliz, Scott Feldman, … (oh vey, easily the biggest haul of prospects I have ever seen.)

Granted I don’t expect the Orioles to deal Wieters to someone else, but at the same time I don’t expect him to sign any long term deals. Boras knows what he’s doing. If you throw in Stephen Strasburg, Boras has the best battery of prospects that has ever come up in the past 15 years under his wing. He’s naturally going to get them the most money they can get.

The Huffster elaborates on the term “contract year":

I don’t know how guys do that. … Some guys, they go into their contract years and put up huge numbers. It amazes me. Adrian Beltre, I think he hit 49 home runs in his contract year. I don’t know how they do that. I just go at it the same way, go one day at a time, and see what the numbers are at the end. You see these guys put up ridiculous numbers and then they don’t do as much the next couple of years. Does that mean they’re just playing for the money?

Now I could be a dick and state that Beltre hit 48 home runs in his walk year instead of 49, but to suggest that Beltre has been nothing more than a “bad contract” for his new team is false. Beltre has been worth 57MM to the Mariners over the past four years, with the Mariners paying him just over 50MM for his services. Even in his worst of the four seasons, he was still a 2.5 WAR player.

Beltre is going to be one of the most-sought after targets after the season is over, when he becomes a free agent. His glove is fantastic, and his bat shows up from time to time too. Still when the Mariners signed him, they most likely didn’t have expectations for him to repeat the same season he had in 2004, when he was a 10 WAR player. That’s Albert Pujols-territory my friends.

It’s clear now that Richie Sexon was the worse of the two big signings that Bill Bavasi and the Mariners partook in that year.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings is holding an annual pledge drive for his site. He raised over $2,500 so far, and we should all contribute something. I just did, I hope others follow. It should be noted that writing on BM is Pinto’s full time job.

Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool has gotten some exposure recently on MLBTR, and both have been using it to project all 30 teams’ offense for the 2009 year. I personally have used his DBD Database more often than not, especially for researching which starters pitched for a team however many years back.

In other words, donate something to the site. The contributions are used to fund the massive data which is fed to the above Python scripts.

There has been tons of talk lately about Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State pitching prospect who can hit 102 on a radar quite often. I’ve seen the videos of him pitching, the 23 strikeout game, the dominance over the Dutch, he looks good… however is he the best pitching prospect to come along in the past 15 years, or is this another drumming up from the PR Machine of the Scott Boras Corporation?

Oddly enough, Jon Heyman hasn’t chimed in, however ESPN’s Buster Olney got things started with this glowing blog entry a week back:

So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year’s draft?

“The best I’ve ever seen,” says a longtime scout. “And it’s not even close.”

C’mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal – tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You’re saying he’s better than what Prior was then?

“Easily,” says the scout, over the phone. “I’m telling you, it’s not even close.”

In other words, if Strasburg was on the free agent market this winter, he would be comparable to A.J. Burnett, who landed a 82MM contract with the New York Yankees back in December. However that wasn’t the case, and he’ll enter the 2009 Amateur Draft, most likely as the top overall selection, which is held by the Washington Nationals. However the ever-exciting Scott Boras caught wind of the aforementioned ESPN piece, and brought up his own idea on the price tag of this talented pitching prospect: 50MM in total compensation over six years.

As Dave Cameron reminds us, the record for total compensation of an amateur selection is held by Mark Prior, who got 10.5MM. Mark Teixeira is second with 9.9MM and David Price is third with 8.5MM…

***

In looking at a comparable to Strasburg, I would definitely suggest Price. Both pitchers have clear #1 ceilings, however Strasburg has considerably more zip on his heater (though Price is known to hit trips in his as well.) ESPNs’ Keith Law disagrees, and says that there is no comparable to this pitcher. Jim Callis of BA tones down Olney as well:

Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he’s not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.

Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there’s little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.

John Sickels also has a few remarks himself:

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I’ve received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn’t pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

***

With that stated, Strasburg is a fine talent, but at the same time he is mortal. In all fairness I could see him getting 10MM guaranteed next year, maybe 12MM, from whomever drafts him. 50MM? That could be a little too far fetched. Now with Washington having the top pick in the draft, could they take him first overall, knowing that Boras has these grandiose plans in place for his top pitching prospect? If they don’t take Strasburg, the next best available player (Grant Green) also has Boras “advising” him.

This isn’t the first time that Boras has thrown a wrench into the Amateur Draft. Boras represents Matt Wieters, and he fell all the way down to the #5 spot, where Baltimore gleefully took him (giving him the 6MM signing bonus he demanded.) Teams were reluctant to grab him due to the fact that Boras was his advisor (ask the Pirates how they like Daniel Moskos.) Could the same thing happen with Strasburg this year?

Given the fact that the Nationals lost out on Arron Crow, I’m sure they’ll take Strasburg with the #1 pick. And I do see them signing him, for reasons they they were unable to sign Crow and Teixeira. It won’t take 50MM, but in any case it’ll blow the slot recommendation out of the water.

***

So what will be the outcome of the 2009 Amateur Draft? Simple. The owners will be pissed, primarily at Boras. As per their CBA, which expires in 2011, a team has control of a player for the first six years of his Major League service time. In half of those years, the player has leverage over his salaries (via arbitration), and the team has the other half. Now there are other factors which can influence things here (e.g. Super Twos), however when a player is given a Major League contract after he is drafted, this changes the leverage considerably. Take Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. He signed a Major League deal with the Indians back in 2002, and the contract didn’t expire until last year. Guthrie wasn’t arbitration eligible, so the team gave him the maximum pay cut, and he’ll make around 600K in 2009.

If Strasburg is to get that six year, 50MM Major League deal, the Nationals would all but certainly push him into their 2010 rotation right out of Spring Training (there’s no sense in paying him that money to remain in the minors.) He’ll serve out his six years, then get another monster deal once he becomes a free agent at the end of his 2015 season. Boras would love this scenario, but in this economy, I think we’re getting a little far ahead of ourselves here… but if this does happen, expect another labor/ownership holdout in 2011.

Almost everything that I’ve seen about Orioles’ pitcher Brian Bass has been, um “fishy.” He came over to the Orioles last Fall from the Twins for cash considerations. His final start of the season was excellent, and he pitched a no-hitter the start before against Tampa Bay (albeit in five innings.)

Say hello to your #3 starter Orioles fans.

Now why am I bringing up Bass? For one I’m fighting a hang over. However more importantly I’m trying to come up with a few names of pitchers that could land rotation spots. Bass doesn’t have the best stuff, however given the state of Baltimore’s rotation he’ll most likely have a spot when the season opens, especially with Rich Hill and Koji Uehara hurt, Hayden Penn struggling (and out of options as well), and Danys Baez stinking up things.

Bass also brings up fantasy implications. Granted I’m not suggesting putting him on your team, however a basic assumption is that 20% of the starting pitchers in baseball are not drafted in fantasy leagues come April 1st. The reason why is because most team rotations aren’t set until the last week of Spring Training. Fantasy drafts, they occur in early April.

I’m a huge fan of grabbing pitching off the waiver wires. Granted I’m not looking at Livan Hernandez, however I grabbed Jordan Zimmerman as soon as I could (to help repair my one team’s rotation.)

If Bass kicks, um, Bass, then I’ll be surprised. Most of the projections have him winning about four games in 2009. However Baltimore has four slots in their rotation to fill. Bass is all but certain to have one of them. Now if he does good, he’ll have Baltimore fans happy, and of course Cabellas will be calling him to do promotions as well.

So I got drunk Friday night and overslept a huge fantasy draft on Saturday morning. I’m really pissed too, since it’s a really competitive, invite-only league, and my mad-skills kinda raked last year. My team was auto-picked, and it sucks. I understand how auto-pickers work; the algorithm attempts to grab the best player available at the position. In other words, I’m stuck with a pretty sweet crop of outfielders. My infield blows, my pitching staff fucking sucks (both starting and relieving.) I think I can salvage things here with this disaster… pitching is best found on the waiver wires anyways.

I had the same issue happen to me last year with a fantasy football team. In other words I was that kid who showed up with eight quarterbacks. Oh well, my strategy now changes. I was really hoping to draft a catcher as soon as I can. Think about it… we have Brian McCann, we have Joe Mauer, we have Russell Martin and then it falls off. I know Matt Wieters is now a household name, however I’m not sure where he went in this one particular draft.

I was eying the fourth round to draft a catcher. From what I’ve experienced, people get scared off if you draft too early. That is if I was to draft McCann in the fourth round, we’d have other owners being:

Oh shit. He didn’t just draft a catcher, did he?

At that point, the other catching studs are off the board. The same thing happens in fantasy football, especially if you draft a tight end (or in some leagues a defense) too early. In either case, if you party and chase girls the night before, you’re stuck with Jason Varitek (whom I ripped all Winter) and Gerald Laird on your roster the day after. That’ll teach me a lesson. Yes I’m smart enough to clean up the roster via waiver wire pickups, however good catching doesn’t come along too often, and this will be tough to fix.

***

A few things happened since I was last here. Scott Baker got a four year, 15MM extension a few weeks back, and Jon Lester got a five year, 30MM contract yesterday. Both the Twins and Red Sox aren’t getting discounts, and I give credit to the two pitchers for striking while the iron’s hot. And the Astros signed Ivan Rodriguez to a contract worth 1.5MM… good move on both sides, though FanGraphs doesn’t consider him much more of an upgrade on J.R. Towles. I gave up on Towles, and am now starting to consider Pudge for this fantasy team as I speak…

***

I wanted to close with an interesting graph I came up with for Johan Santana:

Google “charts” the Mets’ ace.

What do we see here? Easy. Johan’s ERA and Ks dropped when moving to the National League last year. However his WHIP was high, and his K/9 and BB/9 were also alarming. However the scary part behind his season last year was that 3.50 FIP. In other words his ERA should have been around 3.00 or so last year, but he got assisted with one hell of a defense (especially Mr. Beltran and Mr. Wright and Mr. Reyes…)

Santana’s a great pitcher, but his supporting cast saved his ass last year, sans his bullpen. That could change for this season, and I could see Johan winning 20. I think his ERA will be about what it was this past season, and I expect him to be fine in 2009 (he got off to a rough start last season.)

It’s tough to project the Mets’ ace. If you’d see, his 2007 and 2008 campaigns were very similar. He struck out about 20 more hitters with the Twins, yet his ERA was down by nearly a run as a Met. The result, he was a 4.6 WAR pitcher in both seasons. He also reached a career high in innings last season, and could that be a problem this season? We hope not. Still is the Santana of old going to return in 2009? I’m not sure. I highly doubt he’ll ever be a 7 WAR pitcher again though, something Tim Lincecum was last year (at a worth of 33MM, he was highly deserving of that Cy Young award.) Santana is a very good pitcher, and is a solid ace, but that Major League leading 2.53 ERA is hella-deceiving.

Rob Neyer of ESPN brought up four solid relievers who can be had for cheap:

Relief Pitchers: Joe Beimel, Chad Cordero, Dennys Reyes, Rudy Seanez

Over the past three seasons – all as a Dodger – Beimel was 11-4 with a 3.04 ERA. He gave up seven home runs in 2006, but has allowed just one over the past two seasons and 116 innings. Oh, and he’s a lefty. Either he’s a lousy guy in the clubhouse or his agent’s not having a good winter. Because for the past 50 years there’s been a place in the majors for a guy like Beimel, and I expect there will be for the next 50.

Cordero just has to convince someone he’s healthy. I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite closer again (if he ever was) because he gives up too many home runs. But he’s 26 and he’s got a 2.78 career ERA, and might make someone a fine setup man someday.

Reyes is sort of like Beimel without the fastball (and thus the innings). Last season, he got into 75 games with the Twins and somehow totaled only 46 innings. Which might be some sort of record. Funny thing is, he’s not that bad against right-handed hitters. Anyway, if somebody’s looking for a LOOGY and can’t afford Beimel, Reyes is a solid choice.

And finally, I can’t let the opportunity pass to mention Seanez, who has pitched in the majors since 1989 (with a couple of enforced breaks) with nine different teams (including the Padres for three stints). He’s 40, but pitched effectively in each of the past two seasons and picked up a World Series ring with the Phillies last year. I’m not convinced yet that he’s not the new Jesse Orosco.

With that all “said", take Reyes off the list. The Cardinals nicely upgraded their bullpen for a guaranteed 3MM. Nothing against Brian Fuentes, who the Cardinals were interested in and is a very solid pitcher, but Reyes is a much more cost-effective answer, who costs a sixth of what Fuentes signed for.

Joe Posnanski is liking what he sees with the Royals so far in Arizona, particularly with their pitching:

People around baseball are beginning to come around to the idea that the Royals’ pitching staff has a chance to be pretty good in 2009. They have a potential ace, a strong veteran starter, a couple of young pitchers who can emerge, a bullpen filled with power arms and the best closer west of Mariano Rivera.

I won’t disagree with any of those claims. Heck I’ve been saying it all along (to many ridicule), I love Kansas City to win the division in 2009. I think they got a good core of players together. Any ways Posnanski brings up one last point about their bullpen, which is still good, sans (league min relievers) Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez:

“I think the Royals have the best bullpen in the division,” a scout says. “They have power arms, they have lefties, they have a great closer. Their bullpen was pretty good last year when I saw them, but I think it’s better this year.”

It’s good. It’s the best bullpen west of Boston. It’s a shame that a Juan Cruz signing made people suddenly think that this team is good…

In case anyone missed the news today, Manny Ramirez finally signed. Frank McCourt and the Dodgers’ brass acquiesced, and gave Manny the money he wanted. He’s getting the 45MM over two years, but less of it is deferred.

Some interesting quotes about the whole thing, and of course my color commentary thereafter:

The mood brightened in sunny, balmy Dodgers camp with the news that Manny Ramirez was on his way into town to continue a Dodgers career that could not have begun more auspiciously. Quirky, funny Manny isn’t due in until Thursday, after he completes a full physical Wednesday in L.A., but his peppy personality was already seen in some teammates who were just happy to hear they weren’t going to have to fend for themselves.

In case anyone figured, that was CNN’s Jon Heyman. He is to Manny as Chris Matthews is to Barack Obama. Actually I’m not sure if that’s the best analogy, but he’s been the official mouth piece in regards to this contract saga.

I’m glad to see that many other people are starting to see this Heyman/Scott Boras tie, originally brought up by Baseball Analysts’ Rich Lederer. This is from the RotoWorld blurb last night, when the contract talks were starting to converge:

That’s ESPN speak for “we blew it, but we’re going to do our best not to admit it.” It’s probably only a matter of time until something does get done here, and we’ll trust SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the unofficial mouthpiece of Boras Corp., to have the scoop.

Manny then chimed in on the whole saga:

I cannot control what people might think … The economy is making everyone adjust. I will be happy to play for L.A., win and win a couple Gold Gloves just like Andruw Jones.

Wow. Thank god this is finally over.

The Blue Jays were soooo close to making some noise this winter:

Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera has agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the Oakland Athletics, who also are closing in on a deal with veteran infielder Nomar Garciaparra, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Monday. Cabrera, 34, will replace Bobby Crosby as Oakland’s starting shortstop. Cabrera hit .281 with eight home runs and 57 RBIs and stole 19 bases for the White Sox last year.

On the whole I like this move for the A’s, it’s a shame that they still have Bobby Crosby on the roster however. Still as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts it, they just spent 4MM to bump themselves up from an 82 win team to an 83 win team. For them to see true value on this signing, they’ll need to unload Crosby’s 5.5MM that’s owed to him this year, and in our current economy, that’ll be tough to do.

Speaking of the economy, that’s the main reason as to why the Blue Jays have been so dormant this offseason. I don’t know any other team who had a bad winter. They lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, and won’t get the Type A luxury that the Angels do, since they also signed (Elias higher) Mark Teixeira. All four other teams in the division have improved themselves by at least two Pythagorean wins in my opinion. Granted the AL East is a nasty division to play in, but you need to at least make some moves to make up for those that you lost.

Bill Madden of NY Daily News brought up a nasty topic for debate today:

The rumblings already have started. With three years to go in the basic agreement, baseball’s owners are once again sounding the flashpoint “c” word - as in salary cap. But this past week, events in Oakland and Miami - where a new stadium plan for the A’s was pronounced dead and one for the Marlins once again put on life support - may leave the owners no choice but to revisit another ominous “c” word: contraction.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer fired back with a assuaging rebuttal:

Look, the A’s and the Marlins both have serious ballpark/revenue woes. No question about it, and Madden does a good job enumerating those woes. But it’s a massive leap from “needing” a new ballpark to the c-word. For one thing, both the A’s and the Marlins have, in recent years, been competitive. We’re not talking about the St. Louis Browns here. We’re talking about one franchise that won 93 games three seasons ago and another that won 84 games just last year. I mean, seriously: these are the two teams that might disappear?

And Craig Calcaterra put the icing on the cake this afternoon:

Well, I think he’s right again here. But even if those obstacles were hurdled, wouldn’t it make more sense for the owners to sit around a table and figure out how to help ailing franchises rather than kill them? My assumption is that the Marlins’ and A’s owners would demand something akin to the market price + hassle charge in order to give up their franchises. I’m also assuming that, since Bud has cultivated a very chummy ownership group, they’d get at least that much. So we’re talking in the hundreds of millions here.

I remember the last time we had the contraction debate, and it was a decade ago. The teams thrown up were the Twins and the Expos. And naturally of course, everyone then had their own mock contraction drafts. That is with the first pick in the draft, teams were salivating over taking Vladimir Guerrero. If we’d contract the Marlins and the A’s, that talent would have to be divvied up both at the big club (e.g. Hanley Ramirez) and the minors (e.g. Trevor Chahill.)

I find it odd why Madden chose these two teams. The Marlins were above .500 last year, and the A’s have been perennially contending under a tight budget with Billy Beane. Besides, the A’s have been gearing themselves into contention, having signed Orlando Cabrera (at a small 4MM) this afternoon.

If baseball needs anything, contrary to what Madden believes, it’s that it needs more teams. And I’m referring to the major markets. New York could use another team, or hell two or three. Granted the Steinbrenners will fight this to the bone however. And since they’re the only party that doles out the major contracts, the players union would naturally be in similar disagreement. Any ways this brings us to our current stalemate.

I got emails from a few Phillies fans today, bragging about how they were able to dump Adam Eaton on my Orioles. My rebuttal was classic: the Phils are still on the hook for (at least) 8.6MM of his 2009 salary.

Eaton, plain and simple, sucks. (Philly.com photo)

The Orioles are taking a low-risk chance. If he pitches poorly in Spring Training, the team can release him. If they take him up North in April, they’ll only have to pay him the minimum 400K for the year. Still I wouldn’t advise on the later. Eaton granted a few years ago was a serviceable #5 starter, however he’d be more of a service for his team by simply not pitching. Granted many teams have had their shares of bad contracts from the past seasons, and I was scratching my heads when the Phillies inked Eaton to the bad three year, 24MM deal.

If the Orioles are looking to eat innings, they have many other options in camp. In other words, don’t simply assume that the Orioles are automatically going to insert Eaton as their fifth starter. I honestly feel that they’ll break camp with David Pauley (obtained from Boston) as the fifth man. He pitched well yesterday, however another option that they have available is Brad Bergesen, who won 15 games this year at Double-A and was their minor league pitcher of the year. Pauley is more likely however, since he is out of options. However Bergesen is a sleeper himself, especially if Rich Hill opens the year on the DL.

In either case, as many have stated before, Baltimore has a plethora of intriguing young arms. However they all have options, and there’s no reason for them to be rushed up to the majors just yet. Still I wouldn’t rule out Bergesen, who shut out the Red Sox today. It’s not automatic that they have to break camp with veterans in the rotation. Baltimore did that five years ago, when they let some young kid named Erik Bedard take the fifth spot in the rotation…

Boston, let it be known, has an unfair amount of pitching depth up on the big club. Per the RotoWorld depth charts, lets look at their starters:

1. Josh Beckett ( R )
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka ( R )
3. Jon Lester ( L )
4. Tim Wakefield ( R )
5. Brad Penny ( R )
6. Clay Buchholz ( R )
7. Michael Bowden ( R )
8. Junichi Tazawa ( R )

And now to their excellent relief corps:

1. Jonathan Papelbon ( R )
2. Hideki Okajima ( L )
3. Takashi Saito ( R )
4. Manny Delcarmen ( R )
5. Justin Masterson ( R )
6. Javier Lopez ( L )
7. Ramon Ramirez ( R )
8. Wes Littleton ( R )

Now why for the odd topic? Not sure, keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight. It would be humorous to see Obama as the commish for one day though. And the one thing I’m sure he’d go after is the Red Sox and their pitching stockpile. It’s just not fair that teams like the Rangers don’t have the pitching up on the big team now… um we need more of these.

A little drunk now… any ways I’m reading BP and looking at their depth charts… Baltimore is moving up a tad:

The team won 68 games in 2008, and it could have been many more, thanks to a lousy (perennial) September, going 5-20. Strangely enough this team was in first place for a good part of the season last year too, then like always after the All Star break, fell apart. BP has the 2009 corps in place for 77 wins, or a nine win (a modest 5.5%) improvement.

Andy MacPhail and Co. is building a team that’s rooted around defense and on-base percentage. In other words, he’s been reading FanGraphs all winter. And apparently, this is going to be paying off for the team. This is a stark contrast to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have simply put done nothing this winter. And I’m sorry if I offended any Kevin Millar fans here.

Royals Sign Juan Cruz

Hopefully this is the last post that I write about the Royals, until they win their division this September of course. I really like the Royals, and they have an interesting core of talent. If the talent goes through a great coalescence however, this team is deadly. Still they have a few flaws, but I still see them winning 85 games in 2009. And in the AL Central, that’s all that’s really needed to do so.

Arizona gets the Royals second round draft pick in this year’s draft, but not their protected first rounder. Cruz gets 6MM, with incentives that could push it up to 8.5MM. Still the sad thing about this deal is that Cruz will get less than Kyle Farnsworth. That’s what you get for being a Type A free agent.

Only I would waste a post tying a minor injury to (former Giant prospect, now Baltimore Oriole) Brad Hennessey to a popular Eminem song a few years back. In all fairness, Brad easily has the best last name in baseball. Much cooler than (another former Oriole great) Scott “Clan” MacGregor.

…does that mean he’ll be signing soon? The last time I did this, Jason Varitek then signed his one year, 5MM deal. In either case, the other Scott Boras client apparently got another offer from the Dodgers this afternoon:

From what I understand, though, there WON’T be a deal tonight. The offer is a two-year, $45 million contract, with salaries of $25 million the first year and $20 million the second, but the second year is a PLAYER option so Manny can walk away if he believes he can get more on the open market next winter. If he is injured during the first season, the second year becomes guaranteed. Boras and Co. have taken it under advisement, and the club is expecting a response early tomorrow.

Essentially they combined the one year, 25MM offer the team made a month back and added a player option onto it (for 20MM), pushing this puppy to 45MM (potentially) over two years. As you recall, Ned Colletti made the exact same offer back in November. In other words, I’m seeing little deviation in the offers to Man Ram.

If Boras maintains his “hold down this fort approach", this permutation of offer #1 with offer #2 will be handled the same way as the prior ones were: in front of a firing squad. In all fairness, Manny is an idiot for leaving this money on the table. He will be paid more during the two years with the Dodgers than he would had he shut up in Boston and played out the final two option years (each at 20MM a piece, assuming they were vested of course.) But then again, as we’ve been witnessing all off season, this is just Manny being Manny.

ESPN’s Buster Olney speaks out on the possible “destinations” for Manny:

And yet just two teams have shown an interest in Ramirez, who hit .388 after the All-Star break last season – the Dodgers have serious interest, but only on a deal of one or two years, apparently, and the Giants have limited interest. Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters we have ever seen, a unique talent who put on one of the most extraordinary performances of our generation in his 10 weeks with the Dodgers, and he’s probably going to have to take about half of what Jim Thome got from the Phillies six years ago.

Don’t get me wrong, Ramirez was fantastic last year, a 6+ WAR player (even with his fielding being at a disadvantage.) However his attitude about his contract, plus his ridiculous contract demands, have limited his demand. The best contract received by a corner outfielder this year was the three year, 31MM deal received by Raul Ibanez from the Phillies. And that was considered by many in the media to be a “bad contract.”

Manny shot down a pair of offers from the Dodgers which any other outfielder on the market would have taken with open hands. He’s still expecting to land a 100MM contract. News flash, not going to happen. He’s expecting to land four years, again not going to happen.

Still this news only proves one thing, that CNN’s Jon Heyman is full of shit whenever he reports “news” about Manny. In other words, this glowing piece he wrote about Manny and Scott Boras two days ago is suddenly not worth anything.

Attention Late Innings readers! We have breaking news regarding MannyBManny:

Ramirez, Dodgers closer, but deal still not imminent

Now, going from what I read from Rich Lederer about Boras and his clients, he uses Jon Heyman as his means for communication, or as he put it, his personal “mouthpiece.” Granted the free agent market has “moved” slightly in the past few days, if you count the deals for Orlando Hudson and Joe Crede as blockbusters. Still movement is movement, and Boras is simply using his advertising arm (e.g. Heyman) to drum up support for his (currently largest) unsigned client.

Seriously. Let’s translate this “breaking” story:

Dodgers have done some compromising in recent days, according to people familiar with the negotiations, as the two sides seem to now understand that they aren’t going to get exactly what they want in a potential deal.

In other words the two parties probably haven’t met. Boras gave Heyman a call and told him to get his ass to work; Manny is seeing reality and is scared. Moving on:

But as to whether the Dodgers ultimately get Ramirez, well, that remains uncertain, even now as spring has sprung.

It’s all but certain that the Dodgers will get Manny. We’re the audience here Heyman, and there’s a bad case of dramatic irony heading our way…

Ramirez has to understand by now he isn’t getting a four-year deal (nor certainly five or six), and the Dodgers probably know that their offers of $45 million over two years or $25 million over one year aren’t going to get it done, either.

Translation. Boras saw that he could only get 2MM for Crede when he was hoping to get 7MM. He saw that Garrett Anderson only got 2.5MM. He’s not stupid, he read the writing on the wall. The market for a bad fielding corner outfielder is dry, especially with Jim Edmonds still on it. Boras is simply rattling the saber here. He knows that no other team will pony up 25MM for Boras, but he’s still trying to remain on the offensive with the Dodgers.

There are indications the sides may be slightly closer. But that doesn’t mean they are close.

We are still where we were back when the Dodgers made their 25MM one year offer. Boras is clearly struck with a case of temerity here.

As recently as a few days ago, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, perhaps in a fit of frustration, was said to be telling friends he just might fly to Pensacola, Fla. to confront the Man-child himself.

Most baseball people believe a Dodgers deal will eventually get done for Ramirez. But both sides appear fairly firm in their beliefs.

As I stated earlier, it will happen, but when…

The Giants are the only other team known to be in the bidding, and perhaps discouraged after being ripped for giving Edgar Renteria $18.5 million over two years, they’ve stated many times that they aren’t up for a bidding war. Even so, their presence may provide Ramirez the resolve he needs to hang tough.

Translation: there goes the “competition"… oh shit! Panic time yet?

The Dodgers, who always prefer short-term deals anyway, say they are willing to make Ramirez the second- or third-highest paid player in the game despite a dreadful economy. But so far they seem to be stubborn about sticking to a deal of one or two years. Ramirez can counter by pointing out that he saved the team last year by reinvigorating the franchise, hitting a ton (.396 with 53 RBIs in 53 games, and an outrageous .520 in October) and leading them into the NLCS after coming to a .500 team. He knows the Dodgers aren’t the same without him. But is that enough leverage?

Turn to Stats 3:16 … another reading from the Book of Manny, as written by Boras (publisher Simon Schuster.) This is when Ned Colletti should offer him a one year, 15MM deal to put Boras in his place. Again, it’ll be the best offer on the table.

The market has been dreadful, especially of late. And since Oliver Perez signed with the Mets for $36 million over three years, none of the stars to sign has even broken the $10 million per year barrier. Excellent players such as Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson signed for $5 million and $3.38 million guaranteed.

Translation, Boras is losing sleep big time, and he ran out of Tylenol PM. He saw that the market is correcting itself, and Manny’s number is about to be called.

However, Ramirez’s case is somewhat different in that he affects the team on the field and at the gate (though owners will dispute the claim that he pays for himself, especially if he’s making north of $20 million). It’s true he needs a job. But, as one competing executive pointed out, “They need him, too.'’ Ramirez is a prideful and patient guy, not to mention a fellow who doesn’t especially treasure spring training.

Boras in other words is starting to get desperate. The Dodgers “need” Manny…

The negotiations, already difficult thanks to the determination of Ramirez and agent Scott Boras, a down economy and an owner who isn’t exactly flush with cash, also have the hurdle of the recent history between McCourt and Boras. Their latest dealings include at least three tough outcomes in fairly high-profile cases: the failure to sign top draft choice Luke Hochevar, the opt-out decision by outfielder J.D. Drew and the free-agent signing of Andruw Jones, an unmitigated $36.2 million disaster from Day 1 due to Jones’ bad shape and underperformance.

The mouthpiece throws up a little reverse psych in an attempt to shake up Colletti. Highlighting bad deals to show the brilliance of giving Manny a monster deal? Don’t do it! Stay strong Ned! Never give in! Never give up! Remain steadfast homeboy!

However, Boras and the Dodgers have gotten past that history to make two deals this winter, one a minor-league deal for veteran pitcher Jeff Weaver, the other an unusual separation agreement for Jones. So any belief that the hard feelings will prevent a deal is unfounded.

Here’s a look at some of the other better remaining free agents …

blah blah blah. The mouthpiece goes on to prattle through some other remaining free agents available, mainly to show that it’s slim pickins’ after Manny.

***

Heyman is trying to sell Manny with the same manner as George W. Bush sold the bailout, and Barack Obama sold the stimulus. That is we need to move fast and get THIS THING DONE! AND GET IT DONE NOW!

If I was Ned Colletti, I’d just sit back and laugh and wait it out, until Manny and Boras come begging to your door for that 25MM offer. They have no other offers, there are no “mystery teams” here. It’s down to the Dodgers and Manny. The ball is in the Dodgers’ court, and they have all the time in the world. Manny will agree to them on their terms.

This case is the 2009 equivalent of the Kyle Lohse situation, where he held out until the end of the 2008 Spring Training, signing a one year deal out of desperation with the Cardinals. Manny will sign, it’ll be in March and it’ll be with the Dodgers. Period. We know how this thing will end. There’s no need to rush through things. The only thing on a collision course after all of this is Jon Heyman’s journalism.

Lots of stuff to run through quickly, but I see no need to use an ordered list here… on Friday last week the Twins inked Joe Crede to a one year deal somewhere between 2.5MM and 7MM. His offense was the main thing dragging him down in 2008, and if he rebounds in 2009, it’ll be good for both him and the Twins. With this news, I still see no need for Seattle to reduce their asking price for Adrian Beltre, who will be a hot name this November. … Speaking of other signings, Los Angeles signed Orlando Hudson to a one year deal worth 3.4MM. If he hits his incentives, he’ll be given a compensation of 8MM. He’s worth the 8MM, but is not worth the 15MM that he was originally seeking. Still with this, the team should really focus on getting Manny signed…

Speaking of other Type As who turned down their arb offers back in December, I could see (the other Orlando) Cabrera in Oakland, however not at 5.5MM, since he’ll cost an unprotected first round draft pick in the process. The same thing applies with the Twins and Juan Cruz. …

Hindsight is 20/20 for Cruz, and other players who gave the middle finger to their arb offers. (Michael Chow/The Arizona Republic)

I’m changing my mind now on Garrett Anderson’s contract, only because he’s only getting 2.5MM. RotoWorld called this move an “uninspired” signing by Frank Wren, but at that price Anderson’s worth it. If he gave the money that the Angels gave to Gary Matthews Jr. two plus years ago, it would be another story. Still I wish they would have signed Jim Edmonds instead…

Rich Lederer from Baseball Analysts sums up the arbitration cases nicely, and I agree with him when he calls Jeff Francoeur “overrated.” … Edwar Ramirez might have been referred to as “good hittin’” by Kevin Millar, but others disagree. The same thing applies to the rest of the Yankees’ relatively unknown (yet effective) bullpen. … and lastly in regards to Rick Kranitz’s “mystery starter”, I like David Pauley. Just say “no thanks” to Danys Baez.

Atlanta got the outfielder of their dreams today. I’ll give you a hint: his last name isn’t Edmonds.

Ryan Zimmerman signed a one year (not multi-year) contract. With that news, we have no more arbitration hearings for 2009:

Bring on the playoffs baby.

Ryan Zimmerman is THE LAST MAN STANDING.

…

And speaking of the Nationals, (non-related) Jordan Zimmerman is “a pitcher worth watching.”

Man, I can’t believe I’m writing about the Nationals tonight. Here’s to more arbitration hearings next year.

As of this afternoon, the Indians designated one time prospect (or “third baseman of the future") Andy Marte for assignment in leiu of a minor trade with the Rays. I’m curious to see who will pick him up. As I’ve stated previously, the Indians have been burned after giving up on former top prospects prematurely. Two names that come to my mind include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

If it’s my guess, I could see Baltimore taking a flier on Marte, like they’ve done with former prospects Guthrie, Felix Pie and Rich Hill. The main issue however is finding space for him on the 40 man roster. They were able to slip Scott Moore through waivers, however I’m not sure who else could be moved off the roster for Marte. Alfredo Simon perhaps? How about a Luke Scott trade? In either case, Marte would be an interesting pickup by Andy MacPhail, with top third base prospect Billy Rowell not being ready anytime soon.

Atlanta Braves’ outfielder Jeff Francoeur became the latest player to avoid an arbitration hearing today:

Francoeur and the Braves avoided arbitration late Wednesday night when they agreed to terms on a one-year, $3.375 million contract, which includes incentives that could push his earnings this year to $3.4 million.

The $3.375 million base salary represents the midpoint of the arbitration figures the two parties exchanged in January. Francoeur was seeking $3.95 million, and Atlanta offered $2.8 million.

Francoeur’s 2008 season was awful. He hit .239/.294/.359 with only 11 home runs. He spent some time in the minors last season. As to whether or not Francoeur would have won his case, I doubt it, unless the panel of arbitrators looks at his high RBI totals over the last three years (2006 with 103, 2007 with 105, and 2008 with 71.)

RBIs are a meaningless statistic, and if Franceour based his contract demands on that figure alone, then that explains why he asked for 4MM in his first year of salary arbitration. Granted the man is still an XBH machine. He had 59 XBH in both 2006 and 2007, and 47 in his major league stint last season. However his extra base hits are quickly moving towards doubles, instead of deep flies. If this trend keeps to continue, his slugging percentage will continue to decline. Couple this with a horridly low on-base percentage and declining BA, Franceour is quickly becoming a below-average corner outfielder who needs to improve, and improve quickly.

Ken Griffey Jr. is a Seattle Mariner.

So if I read my rumors right, Griff got pissed over DOB at the AJC, rumoring that he “chose” the Braves, so he decided to return home to Seattle in hopes that he’ll plant butts in Safeco. (On an aside, all these stores are using the word “choose", as if we’re dealing with Pokemon.) Anyways it’s a good strategy, but I’m not sure if the Braves should be disappointed that Griffey is off the market, especially knowing that Jim Edmonds is (still) available. Now if Frank Wren would just take my advice, they’d have a pretty interesting outfield this season, especially with Matt Diaz and those rookies in the mix. Then again Wren didn’t take my advice when he was running the show in Baltimore, and he got fired. QED homeboy.

On an aside, boy did I predict that salary that he signed on…

As most people who read LI know, I’m a huge fan of Beyond the Box Score. They love WAR data, and so do I. Of late, they’ve been experimenting with graphical charts used to project replacement data, which generously comes from the fine statisticians at Fan Graphs. I’m starting to plot some of their data as well, and I’m using an excellent API provided by Google to do so.

Google Charts is pretty slick to say the least. And what did I want to plot? Simple. I wanted to use it to analyze the Brian Roberts extension.

All in all, Roberts will be extended for four years at 40MM. These are all free agent years, so he’ll be paid on average of 10MM per season. It’s a deal I like (and I’m sure a deal that Peter Angelos pushed for), even if he’ll be 36 at the end of the deal. Last year, Roberts was worth about four runs above replacement, or roughly 18MM per season. He’s been worth this for the past three or so years as well.

Using a comparable contract, the Orioles extended Nick Markakis for 66+MM over six years. However half of those years are arbitration years. If you throw in the seventh option year, Markakis will be paid 59MM over his first four free agency years, or just under 15MM a season. Now the question is, which player is worth more… using the wonderful data again from FG, we can plot the Markakis data versus the Roberts data as follows:

FanGraphs + Google = Amazing.

From the graph, Markakis clearly has the edge due to his defense and his bat. Roberts however gets the edge for his position. Markakis is a corner outfielder, yet he was still worth six runs above replacement in 2008, which is astonishing. If he played center field all last year instead of Adam Jones (which he clearly can), this number would have been higher. In either case, both players are being payed “market rate” during their free agent years, with Baltimore coming out ahead slightly in each deal (if they didn’t, Andy MacPhail wouldn’t have planned the contracts.)

Roberts was worth four wins above replacement last year, which is worth 18MM (using the 4.5MM per win strategy.) His best season was 2005, when he was worth 6 wins above replacement. That was the season which he essentially hit half of his home runs in April. In either case, giving Roberts four years wasn’t essentially wise, but it needed to be done. If he stays between three and four runs above replacement during the four years, he’ll be worth the dollar.

And in case anyone is interested, here’s the Google query which got me the cool graph:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bvg&chs=400x400&chd=t:23.4,-3.7,23.5,2.4,45.6|34.7,10.1,23.2,-7.3,60.7&chco=FF6E1F,0F0F0F&chtt=Roberts%20v.%20Markakis%20|%202008%20WAR&chts=333333,12&chdl=Roberts|Markakis&chxt=x,y&chxl=0:|Batting|Fielding|Replacement|Positional|Value%20Runs|

A year ago to yesterday, the Brewers inked the closer of their dreams Eric Gagne to a one year, 10MM deal. He stumbled with the job, saving 10 games, winning 4, while pitching to the ugly tune of a 5.44 ERA, 79 ERA+. Yesterday the Brewers did the same thing, bringing back Gagne, however this time it’s to a minor league contract:

Gagne, a right-handed reliever and once the game’s most dominating closer, agreed on Tuesday to a Minor League contract with Milwaukee … Gagne will earn a $1.5 million base salary if he makes the team, plus up to $3 million more in incentives.

In other words he’ll be making 1.5MM if he makes the team, which is for the most part certain. He won’t be closing thankfully, which is Trevor Hoffman’s job, however if thrown into middle relief duties, he’ll be a serviceable pitcher, even with the glut of candidates that they have available.

In other words, a year ago to yesterday, Gagne signed a two year, 11MM contract. This news reminds me of another pitcher similar to Gagne. In comparing the two:

• Like Gagne, he was signed to a one year deal in 2007 with his new team.
• While Gagne broke out with his new team (16 S, 2.16 ERA, 209 ERA+), this pitcher did just the same (11 S, 3.90 ERA, 120 ERA+.)
• Gagne was dealt to the Red Sox later that summer, and this pitcher was also dealt before the trading deadline for another pitcher (Kyle Davies.)
• After the season, Gagne left Boston for greener pastures, and this pitcher did the same thing, signing a deal with the White Sox.

It doesn’t take too much to know that I’m comparing Gagne to Octavio Dotel, who unlike Gagne had a very solid year for the AL Central champs. Now do I think Gagne will rebound? Of course. I’m curious to see his numbers in the new no-pressure situation, that is unless Hoffman falters.

I wrote about this yesterday, but it seems that teams and players are now sprinting away from arbitraiton hearings. Or as David Pinto just put it today:

Might we set a record for fewest hearings in a year?

Add Josh Willingham to the list that also had Mike Jacobs, Kelly Johnson, Willy Aybar and Corey Hart added it to hours ago. And with Ryan Zimmerman now thinking long term, there aren’t too many arbitration cases left that need to be settled.

News item of today: Andre Either signed a 3.1MM deal. Finally the corner outfielders are starting to sign, as in we saw this past weekend with Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel. Will Corey Hart and Ryan Zimmerman come to terms now? I’m not sure. Still we’re starting to see fewer arbitration cases than we did last year. Last year we had eight cases, this year we have three so far (the players winning two of them.) This year with teams locking down their players (notably Ryan Howard), arbitration isn’t as fun this year as it was years in the past. Granted the month is still young…

Also, Edwin Encarnacion agreed to terms on a two-year deal. He’ll make 7.6MM over the next two, leaving one year of arbitration for him (2011) on the table. If Encarnaction goes deep 35 times, as projected by RotoProfessor, then this deal will look good for Walt Jocketty and Co., regardless of how bad Edwin will look in the field.

The Pirates and All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth agreed on a contract today:

Outfielder Nate McLouth reached agreement Tuesday with the Pittsburgh Pirates on a $15.75 million, three-year contract that includes a team option for 2012.

The agreement was struck hours before the scheduled start of a salary arbitration hearing in Phoenix.

I’m not sure how much his first year of free agency will be (the “team option"), however in either case this looks like a good deal on behalf of the Pirates. Once again, Neil Huntington quietly is making moves that will make this team respectable in the semi-near future, very similar to how Mark Shapiro is handling his team’s contention status in Cleveland.

In either case, using the wonderful data that’s available at FanGraphs:

Granted McLouth’s defense might be overrated (especially with last season’s Gold Glove in his pocket), he’s still a valuable player by far. Even with that dragging defense, he’s still worth 3.6 wins above replacement, or worth about 16MM last year. He’s getting 15.75MM over the next three years. Good deal indeed.

Pirates’ fans don’t have much to look forward too, however they should be pleased of the direction that Huntington is leading the team. Over the past two years, we’ve seen affordable extensions given to Ian Snell, Matt Capps, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit and now McLouth. The Pirate ship is clearly steered in the right direction. Now the fun part will be seeing this team in three years, when McLouth, Jose Tabata and (another talented McOutfielder) Andrew McCutchen are patrolling the team’s outfield.

RotoWorld chimes in on the strong possibility of new Mariner Josh Fields very soon:

He was drafted as a college senior and he’s 23 years old, so it shouldn’t be long before he’s ready to help the Mariners as a reliever. It’ll probably be 2010 before he’s a candidate for saves, but as little as the team has in front of him, he’s a deep sleeper for this year.

With Brandon Morrow most likely never closing again (thank you), the team is currently holding open tryouts for the closer role. And I love how BTBS is referring to this situation as “bullpen casserole.” Yes the ‘pen is a mess, but a closer with control problems riding into the Emerald City on a White Horse is not going to save the problems Bavasi left on this city…

A small bit of news from yesterday, the Mets signed Livan Hernandez (formerly with the Rockies and Twins) to a minor league deal worth about 1MM (not sure about all the stipulations.) Hernandez surprisingly won 13 games last year, however the 6.05 ERA was bad and the 1.67 WHIP was worse. He gave up 257 hits last year in only 180 innings! On the plus side, Hernandez is a true innings eater, and he has won at least ten games in nine seasons straight.

I don’t view Hernandez as a viable option, however the Mets did the right thing which is add more depth to the back end of their rotation. He’s also united with his brother Orlando Hernandez, who is planning on restarting his career as a reliever. Still Livan should be buried under the team’s depth chart. Jon Niese pitched well in his late season debut last season, and they gave a good chunk of incentive coin to Freddy Garcia. However the team would be best letting Tim Redding handle the bulk of the end of the rotation starts.

Before kicking off this little rant (it’s obviously about Bill Bavasi in case anyone wants to stop reading), the Angels inked Ervin Santana to a four year extension worth 30MM. Just like that, the team wiped out any arbitration hearings this year, since they signed Macier Izturis earlier today. This deal also wipes out any more changes that Santana has to go to arbitration. He’s still getting paid well though. On an aside, I really wish Baltimore would have grabbed him, since the Angels were after Miguel Tejada. Santana’s 2007 numbers were clearly flukish. However Tony Reagins is a relatively intelligent general manager…

… unlike Bill Bavasi. Granted he’s not in office anymore, the Mariners axed him last summer. However his legacy looms on now. The one interesting move that happened yesterday was with the Mariners signing (their future closer) Josh Fields. Fields didn’t have to be signed by last August’s deadline, however they finally got this done. It seems that after Bavasi drafted the closer of his dreams, the team simply had enough and let him go a week later…

Any ways when this move first happened, people poked at them for drafting a closer. However now after the fact that Fields has signed, people are starting to wonder if Fields will be closing in 2009 for the Mariners… WOW.

Over the years, even with Bavasi in charge the Mariners still managed to accrue a good amount of young talent. Granted he dealt a lot of it away, but a good portion still remains. Regular readers to this blog know that I think they have a potential star in Phillipe Aumont, their 2007 pick. However I wasn’t too thrilled over the Fields pick.

Closers are the most overrated players in professional sports. Thankfully the demand for closers has come down, however they shouldn’t be paid more than 5MM a year, mainly since they only pitch in a third of the innings a front-line starter will pitch. Drafting a closer in fantasy baseball is a good strategy (you need three of them, with 90 saves in the process), however drafting a closer during the amateur draft is not. I’m not sure what Fields will bring to the table. Yes he has good stuff, but without control he isn’t going anywhere. Or as Sickels so wonderfully put it:

Stuff is here, but what about command?

QED. In other words, Fields will most likely end up becoming the next Dennis Sarfate. That is he’ll be a reliever who will end up striking out over a batter per inning, however a 6 K/9 ratio isn’t promising. A pitcher with a WHIP around 1.50 can’t be used as a starter or as a closer, as the Orioles saw last year when they tried to move Sarfate around.

… by getting drunk tonight.

Baseball needs more David Wells, seriously folks.

Dear Atlanta Braves’ Fans,

I know you need a corner outfielder badly. David O’Brien and the rest of the people at the AJC agree. As do most well known bloggers, sabr-maticians and fans. You wanted Bobby Abreu, he left for the Angels. You sought Adam Dunn, who will now make the Nationals a 62 win team. Garrett Anderson and Ken Griffey Jr. are also out there, but they don’t wet your appetite. And as we all know, Manny Ramirez is still asking for too much money. You want a player who will be cost effective, yet be worth 4MM a season (according to FanGraphs.) You want an outfielder who played strong defense with his new team after an early trade, hitting 19 HR, with a 136 OPS+ and a .937 OPS as well. Atlanta fans, I have the answer for you.

Sincerely,
Mike

Ken Griffey Jr. and the Mariners are closing on a one year deal. He wants 5MM, the same figure that Bobby Abreu is getting. A few days back, the Blue Jays inked Kevin Millar to a minor league contract.

Granted both players are receiving deep pay cuts given last year’s salary. On the surface, Griffey and Millar put up similar power numbers. However Griffey got on base, Millar didn’t do quite as well. Millar was a first baseman, and didn’t put up the expected power numbers. Still given these facts, is Griffey worthy of a 5MM deal, or is he worthy of a minor league contract, especially given his declining defense?

I’d go 3MM plus incentives if I was Jack K.

The past three have been an interesting tie in between Major League Baseball and Judicial Law. First we had the Alex Rodriguez situation, which everyone knows about by now. And then there’s Miguel Tejada, who could potentially be facing deportation. Yikes. And last night, news broke about Brian Giles throwing out the cases against his ex-girlfriend. However the story that was more interesting was the one involving former Oriole/Blue Jay great Roberto Alomar:

Baseball great Roberto Alomar has full-blown AIDS but insisted on having unprotected sex, his ex-girlfriend charged Tuesday in a bombshell lawsuit.

The shocking claim was leveled by Ilya Dall, 31, who said she lived with the ex-Met for three years and watched in horror as his health worsened.

As to whether this is true or not, I’m not sure. We’ll find out once the blood tests come through. Still there are worse things in life that Alomar could be doing. This is the most interesting one that comes to mind for me:

This event was nothing to “spit at.”

The Nationals signed the middle of the order bat they finally needed:

The Nationals finally got their left-handed slugging first baseman, signing free agent Adam Dunn to a two-year contract Wednesday, according to a baseball source. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Dunn’s a fine addition to their lineup, and has five straight 40 home run seasons under his belt. Nationals’ hitters like Ryan Zimmerman should benefit greatly. The team still has some dead weight however, such as AK-.227 and Nick Johnson, but thankfully their contracts will be expiring soon. Terms of this two year deal aren’t known yet, but hopefully he will be receiving more than Christian Guzman, who signed a two year, 16MM deal last summer.

On the whole this is a great move by Jim Bowden, how clearly saw something he liked in Dunn back when the two were in Cincinnati. And Nationals fans (if they exist) should be glad that Bowden dropped the coin on Dunn instead of Mark Teixeira. This is a baby-step in the right direction, however the odds of the team losing 100 games in 2009 is still relatively high.

The Bobby Abreu saga is for the most part over:

Free agent outfielder Bobby Abreu moved closer to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday morning, as the two sides discussed incentive bonuses that would sweeten his pending one-year contract with the club, a source told ESPN.com.

It’s believed the Angels are offering a one-year deal in the $5 million to $6 million range, while Abreu wants something closer to $8 million. So Angels general manager Tony Reagins and agent Peter Greenberg are trying to negotiate some incentive bonuses that would help bridge the difference.

I think my last three or so posts here poked fun at Abreu, especially how he sat around asking for a multi-year deal in excess of 16MM a year. However he waited too long, since the last 10MM a year deal was given out a few months back.

Abreu is great with his bat, and should stay away from the field. In other words, LA has other “Angels in the Outfield” that can grab a glove. The team still has the albatross of Gary Matthews Jr. around them, but he’s still a much better defender than Abreu. 5MM to 7MM is a fair deal for him (if he’s about 1+ WAR.)

Any ways what we’re seeing now is the market correcting itself. Players are now being paid what they’re worth on the open market. There’s no collusion going on here, the reason why? Demand for corner outfielders is down.

Kudos to Tony Reagins, he’s commandeered a brilliant offseason. And he’ll reap rewards this June when the Amateur Draft comes around, since (Type A free agents) Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and (Type B free agent) Jon Garland signed with other teams. Now Reagins can go for the hat trick if he can convince Adam Dunn to wear a first baseman’s glove, and get him to sign for 8MM a year in the process.

Bobby Abreu’s 2009 salary continues to keep halving itself:

A Mets official did not rule out signing free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, but indicated that any contract likely would have to be for one year at less than $4 million. Abreu, 34, hit .296 with 20 homers and 100 RBI for the Yankees last season.

When the season ended, Abreu was making 16MM. He was hoping to get a three year, 48MM deal. He held on that for months. As of a few weeks ago, he cut his demands in half, looking for a one year, 8MM deal. Now it’s down to 4MM… nothing against Abreu. His defense is horrible, but if he plays as a DH, he’d be worth a good two runs above replacement. Someone is sure to grab him as that price continues to plummet.

The Blue Jays and Padres made an interesting trade today:

The career of Matt Bush did not end with the Padres designating the righthander for assignment last week. Instead, the Blue Jays decided to give Bush a change of scenery Tuesday, acquiring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft for a player to be named.

The Blue Jays, coupled with payroll constraints and injuries, are hurt for pitching. Bush is an interesting flyer himself. The Padres back in 2004 signed Bush instead of players such as Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew, figuring that their signing bonuses would have gotten out of hand. Bush was drafted as a shortstop, however off the field issues got in the way. He was ultimately converted to a pitcher (since that was his natural position in high school) and then sat out all of 2008 recovering from surgery.

The Blue Jays need pitching, and I’m not sure where Bush will fit in. He’s years behind other top amateur starters (e.g. Brian Matusz, et al.), however the Jays grabbed him since he is a good talent. He could advance quickly, I’m not sure. Still, going by my count, this is the second top draft pick that they acquired. A few months back, they grabbed Bryan Bullington, the #1 overall pick in the 2002 draft. And if you consider the fact that they also signed Adam Loewen, who was drafted in the 2002 draft #4 as a pitcher, we can clearly start to see Toronto’s strategy of bringing in pitching talent (yes I know that Loewen is an OUTFIELDER.) They lost A.J. Burnett a few months back, and since the Yankees signed three Type A free agents this winter, the Jays won’t be getting the Yankees’ first round draft pick this summer.

From this evening’s news wire:

Right-hander Jeff Weaver agreed to a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday after taking last season off.

Weaver, who played for the Dodgers in 2004-2005, is 93-114 with a 4.72 ERA in nine seasons. He has played in four postseasons, winning the clinching Game 5 of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.

I’m watching the Obama press conference and am hearing words mentioned like “economic stimulus” and “worst economic times since the Great Depression.” For Weaver, things were pretty good for him, as well as the economy. In 2006, he went 8-14 with a 5.76 ERA. However he tuned himself up in the postseason for the Cardinals, had a big World Series and then left for greener pastures as a free agent. The team that scooped him up was the Mariners (with Bill Bavasi obviously) for 8.325MM (the same salary he made in 2006.) Weaver paid off dividends immediately for his new employer, going 7-13, 6.20.

He had a hard time finding work back in 2008, mainly due to ridiculous contract demands and for the most part sat out the year (he did apparently pitch in the lower levels of the Brewers’ organization.) We’ll see if he can get himself into gear for 2009 for the Dodgers. That 5.0 WAR that Derek Lowe had can’t be replaced by any free agent starter on the market currently…

The Orioles’ search for a third starter ended today, albeit unfavorably. Milwaukee inked free agent starter Braden Looper to a one year, 5MM deal today. There’s a 2010 option on the table. Looper, converted as a starter for the past two years with the Cardinals, threw 199 innings last season with the Cardinals, winning 12 games in the process.

Looper would have fit in perfectly with the Orioles, however he made it clear that he wanted to remain in the National League. Baltimore, baring any unexpected pickup, is most likely going to enter camp with the current arms that they have in house. Granted it’s by no means a pretty set, but it’s a much brighter and deeper picture than was a year before.

I have very much in common with the Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Actually no I don’t. I want to keep this short and sweet however. I saw the CNN post come up over the weekend about his alleged steroid accusations, and today he finally admitted it. Rodriguez told ESPN’s Peter Gammons that he took the ‘roids between ‘01 and ‘03. In other words he drank the “high octane” coffee.

My stance on this story is to avoid it, which I’m not doing now. I talked very little about the Mitchell Report when it broke last December, and I’ll refrain from talking about the Rodriguez story after this post. Besides, the MSM is talking about this thing ad nauseum, much how they did a year and change ago about the names listed in the Mitchell Report. My closing argument, MLB shouldn’t have let this get out. Period, they didn’t do their job. Now I have to live with the most disgusting point here… that Jose Canseco was right about everything… yuck.

The big guy got his big deal this Sunday:

Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a $54 million, three-year contract on Sunday, avoiding a potentially contentious arbitration hearing.

The 2006 NL MVP will earn $15 million this season, $19 million next year and $20 million in 2011. He can increase the base salary by $1 million in each of the last two years if he wins the MVP award during the previous year. He can boost it by $500,000 if he finishes second.

For over the past year or so, I’ve enjoyed writing about Howard and his battles with the club over arbitration. His first year set the tone, since he was awarded 10MM by the arbitration panel. And the likelihood of him winning this year’s case was also high, especially if those three arbitrators loved RBIs as much as BBWAA writers do.

Granted he could have gotten more money had he gone year to year, maybe 20MM in 2010 and 23MM in 2011, however he, like most people, is probably sick of the whole arbitration process, even after just going through it for one year. Still at his rate he’s not necessarily a bargain by any means. Seriously, if you look at some data (courtesy of BTBS I believe), Howard’s a 1.7 WAR player. And being generous, at 4.5MM a win, Howard’s a 8MM a year player. So the Phillies are essentially paying double for his services, since his defense at first is the equivalent of an Easter Island statue playing the position.

Yes the Philies overpaid (and have been since last year), but then again the Philies won a World Series. As long as the team keeps winning, they can continue to wear this albatross around their necks until he leaves the team after 2011 for more greener pastures (if that’s even possible, given his older age and body makeup.)

In case anyone cares, Baltimore and Toronto swapped swing men today. Actually it wasn’t like that. Baltimore signed former-Oriole John Parrish to a minor league deal. He wants to start, from what we’re told. And a few hours later, Toronto picked up Brian Burres, DFA’d by the Orioles earlier this week after they acquired Rich Hill.

I guess it’s an even swap, though I like Parrish more out of the bullpen than I did Burres. Burres is an interesting arm; he broke out of the gate in 2008, then faltered the rest of the way. The same thing happened for him in 2007, and 2006… My guess for Toronto fans, you’ll love him at the start of the season, then the league will adjust, and it won’t be pretty.

And more on this note, BTBS is reporting that Russell Martin has great words to say about former Oriole pitcher, now Blue Jay slugger Adam Loewen. Actually in the perma-link:

‘You’re a better hitter than I am,’” Martin said. “So I’m really not worried about it at all. It’s going to take him a little time to adjust and to get used to the velocity and stuff like that, but the guy is just a natural hitter. It’s not hard for him to hit.”

Here’s a strange guess: I see Loewen in Toronto’s outfield in the fall of 2009. Loewen is an interesting player, but I guess if Martin’s advice is true, anything can happen.

We all know how well the mainstream media covered the 2008 General Election, and unfortunately their coverage of baseball isn’t getting any better. The Orioles signed Ty Wiggington this morning to a two year contract, and this one quote in the CP piece got to me:

His best season was in 2006, when he batted .275 with 24 homers and 79 RBIs for Tampa Bay.

Granted I thought his 2008 season was good (if it wasn’t Houston would have tendered him a contract.) He hit one less homer, but had a better average. However he didn’t drive in as many runs… looking at the spits:

Ok as you all can see, Wiggington did drive in more runs in 2006, but does that necessarily mean that it was his best career season? Let’s expand these stats as follows:

In either case, Wiggington had all-around better stats in 2008. It’s the same argument that was applied with the Nick Markakis extension and ESPN’s reporting of it (Rich Lederer made the same argument about how the MSM banks behind RBI.)

In either case, I’m glad that the Orioles signed Wiggington. I would have liked Dunn, but he apparently has offers and won’t be a bargain. Now if the Orioles would just sign Ben Sheets and Braden Looper, we’d be in “sleeper” business. Still, we should all be thankful that Andy MacPhail’s wife got her husband a subscription to Baseball Prospectus for Christmas. It’ll pay off for the team in the long run.

As in the following:

It didn’t take Manny Ramirez long to turn thumbs-down on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ latest attempt to bring him back to Chavez Ravine.

Just hours after the Dodgers offered him a one-year, $25 million contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in baseball and the highest-paid outfielder in baseball history, Ramirez and agent Scott Boras informed the team late Monday night that they’d rejected that offer.

Everyone knows that Scott Boras spurred the two year, 45MM offer from the Dodgers. And it apparently didn’t take Manny and Boras long to shoot down this offer. Honestly, I’m waiting to the Dodgers to simply “move on.” If that’s the case, will Boras get his client the four year, 100MM offer (or six years, 150MM according to Jon Heyman?)

There are tons of options that the Dodgers can use to fill their outfield holes, both internally and on the free agent market. And Manny, the more he shoots down, the less he’s likely to get. I understand that Boras enjoys getting his client long term deals, since that’ll free up his time for subsequent seasons. However I’m now excited to see what Boras will get his client, with the Dodgers and Yankees (can’t sign anymore Type A free agents) out of the picture. Sooner or later, Boras is going to have to settle for his client who’s on the wrong side of 35…

As everyone knows by now, I’m an Orioles fan. And for fun, I’d like to throw a few names out of free agents that would be interesting to see if they signed:

1. Ben Sheets
2. Braden Looper
3. Adam Dunn

Dunn of course would be an interesting addition, bringing massive amounts of walks and home runs with him. The two starters on the other hand would truly transform their rotation.

I’ve said this all off-season, Andy MacPhail has been loading the Orioles’ system with talent. This includes stocking both the farm system and the major league team. I’m curious to see how many wins BP and PECOTA will project them with this year, but as of now they currently have one major weakness: starting pitching.

Add Sheets. Add Looper. The price for these two might have gone up a little today thanks to the Mets however:

Left-hander Oliver Perez will be taking the hill for the New York Mets again next season.

Perez and the Mets agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal, sources told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and 1050 ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand

I’m not the biggest Perez fan by any means, and I think that Scott Boras won big for his client once again this winter. Still if I had to guess on contracts for Sheets and Looper, I’d say that Sheets get 10MM, Looper gets 6MM. Sheets I don’t understand. When healthy, he’s an ace, and last year he was for the most part healthy. Why aren’t teams fighting over his services?

Sheets is a proven staff ace, in case anyone has forgotten (source mlblogs.com.)

Insert Sheets as the staff ace, and suddenly Jeremy Guthrie is a solid #2. Looper and Koji Uehara fill out the other spots, and your fifth starter is Rich Hill. Other arms they’ve brought in this offseason (e.g. Mark Hendrickson, David Pauley) would provide much needed depth.

I like the Hill deal, I like the Felix Pie deal. MacPhail got these two players for pennies on the dime, hopefully. Granted Baltimore is an improved team, but they’re still not ready to compete with the other players in their division. However if they made these small moves, I’m curious to see the media’s reaction this year. After all look at the White Sox… Hill could become Gavin Floyd, Pie could be Carlos Quinten.

We are just two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and I wanted to start throwing in a few of my sleeper picks for the upcoming season. I wrote a while back about Josh Phelps, which prompted ridicule from readers. I explained my case (mainly that he’ll get bats), and if he goes deep 25 times in 2009, there will be a lot of dumbfounded looks on people’s faces.

To clarify, almost everyone and their mother has labeled Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz their sleeper picks for 2009. Granted there’s no questioning their talent, however with everyone knowing this tidbit, I’m seeing Davis drafted on average in the sixth round, and I’ve seen Cruz (a AAAA All-Star) go as early as the ninth round. Suddenly these two players don’t quantify as sleepers anymore, do they?

Enter Ubaldo Jimenez. There are a number of pitchers on the Rockies staff who could be considered their ace. Jeff Francis was big two years back, and Aaron Cook was a welcome surprise last year. Dan O’Dowd and Co. locked up Jiminez to a solid four year deal this week. And if you look at Paul Maholm’s contract in comparison, in my opinion the Rockies will look very smart in the long run. Maholm has #3 starter ceiling, while Jimenez could easily be any team’s staff ace, if he could just harness his control.

The always good to read Roto Professor had his Ask the Expert piece up this week, and this piece featured the Denver Post’s Troy Renck. The staff ace question was brought up, and here was Renck’s excellent answer:

Ubaldo Jimenez is primed to be the ace. Nobody threw more fastballs over 95 miles per hour last season in the big leagues. The issue is command. When he has average command, he’s a no-hitter waiting to happen. But teams continue to exercise patience against him. Jimenez gets it, works on his correcting his mistakes. He should win 18 games this season.

I’m not sure if I could see him winning that many games, however I could see him winning fifteen games. I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts. Now I’m not suggesting that you draft him early, but if I see him in the later rounds (19th and later), I’d grab him. I’m waiting until the eighth round to start plucking starting pitching this year. I grabbed a pitcher very early last year (fourth round), in Justin Verlander, and I got burned hard.

So there you go. Consider Jimenez for your fantasy teams. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez. Literally. One pitcher (with the help of Scott Boras), will be making 10MM in 2009. The other pitcher will be making 750K. Which of these two will provide the better bang for their buck?

…is now over, at least for the time being:

It took nearly three months, but the Boston Red Sox have reached agreement to bring back catcher Jason Varitek on a one-year, $5 million contract, pending a physical and the execution of final details, two major league sources said Friday.

The contract would include a 2010 club option for $5 million. If the Red Sox decline their option, Varitek would hold a player option for $3 million.

Granted there are more details here, but wow, there’s been so much attention over a player who had a lousy season in 2008. There weren’t too many other options available for Theo Epstein to pick from however, at least on the free agent catching market. He’ll need to start looking towards the future however, whether it be in the draft or via trade. Still for the time being the whole mess is done. Honestly I was hoping that the negotiations would have gotten more caustic, it makes good material. And then Scott Boras could as for a piece of the “stimulus package":

It’s all about job creation.

Seriously.

According to a baseball source, the deadline by which (Jason) Varitek must accept or decline the Red Sox’ latest contract offer is set for 8:30 a.m. Friday, leaving less than a day for the matter to play out. According to the same source, Varitek is seriously considering the option of sitting out the 2009 season and/or retiring rather than accepting the contract offer made to him last week.

In that proposal, the Red Sox gave Varitek the choice of a one-year contract for a guaranteed $5 million or a one-year deal for $5 million with a vesting option. In the latter scenario, Varitek would earn another $5 million if the team exercises the option for 2010, and $3 million if the option is exercised by the player.

I wrote about this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Players who love the game are taking pay cuts left and right, including Jon Garland (~5MM), Mark Kotsay (~7MM), Andy Pettite (~10MM), and Pat Burrell (~5MM.) And even though Federal Interest rates are at 0%, deflation is still hitting the baseball world hard, being in “the worst economic times since the Great Depression” and all.

Varitek and Boras need to get out of their bubble. He should be happy that the club has offered them two contracts. However common sense dictates that there is no market whatsoever for an aging catcher coming off a .220, 73 OPS+ season. It’s that simple. A 5MM contract for those numbers is an incredibly generous offer on behalf of the Red Sox. It’s a shame that “the captain” and “the super agent” can’t figure this out. Seriously.

In case anyone cares, this Saturday will be a big day for free agent catcher Jason Varitek, who’s currently caught between “a rock” and “a hard place”:

By Saturday, it should become known whether the Red Sox catcher and captain will be returning to the team this season.

A baseball source confirmed yesterday that the Sox presented Varitek with a deadline to their proposal. A baseball source indicated last night that Varitek was given “one week” to make a decision in a letter he and agent Scott Boras received Friday.

According to another baseball source, Varitek has the choice of a one-year, $5 million contract or a one-year offer for a guaranteed $5 million with a dual option for 2010.

In the latter scenario, the Sox have a $5 million option for the 2010 campaign. Should the team decline the option, Varitek can return at a salary of $3 million, essentially guaranteeing him $8 million over two seasons.

The one-year offer may prove more appealing to Varitek because it would allow him to reenter the market next fall, at which point he might have greater earning power.

Going by my count, this is the second contract that the Red Sox offered to Varitek. He shot down their arbitration offer back in December, and like a lot players in similar situations today (e.g. Jon Garland, Juan Cruz), most likely wishes he could go back in time.

If Varitek shoots down offer #2, it’ll all but certain end the Red Sox’s tenure of their team captain. From here Theo Epstein will probably pursue a young, above-average catcher (e.g. Miguel Montero, Jarrod Saltalamaccia.) And Vartiek will of course be in a deep “0 and two hole.” And judging by how well he hit last year in this situation…

I know this is not baseball related by any means.

I work during the day, and saw the news that Jon Garland signed a 6.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. I wasn’t able to chime in at the moment about it, thankfully BTBS did the work I wanted to do:

One year deal believed to be in the $6-8 million range. So let’s summarize:

Garland: turns down the Angels offer of arb which would’ve likely netted him an increase from last year’s $12 million salary, has to settle for a one year deal worth maybe half that much (though there is likely an option). Results: FAIL

D’backs: Could have spent about the same amount of money on Randy Johnson, who was worth almost two more wins than Garland last year and a local favorite. Results: FAIL

Angels: Lose a pitcher with a FIP projected somewhere in the 4.4 area who they would have to overpay for and get a draft pick out of it. Results: SUCCESS

I started to then think why didn’t the Diamondbacks offer the same deal to Randy Johnson, a pitcher worth two more wins than Garland in 2008. However Dave Cameron and the brains behind Fan Graphs again beat me to it:

Deciding that you want Jon Garland instead of Randy Johnson is a disastrous decision. Yes, Johnson is old, but he’s still an excellent major league pitcher. Garland is a #5 starter whose best skill is not getting hurt.

I know this sounds mean, but Garland is a lousy pitcher. He’s HR and deep-fly prone, gives up his share of base runners, and has low strikeout rates. The only reason he won 14 games last year was because he was part of a rotation on a team that won 100 games. He was well over-hyped since he was pitching on winning teams, and thus as a bi-product won games. As a result, he was also given a large three year deal (worth 29MM) back in 2005. This inflated his salary, and as a result, pushed up his demands this off-season. Garland was this year’s Carlos Silva, and thankfully he didn’t receive Silva money.

To paraphrase Cameron, yeah Garland really screwed up the Diamondbacks’ off season. A few months back, I read a RotoWorld piece (either by Aaron or Matt) projecting where Garland would end this winter. The author projected Garland landing with the Orioles on a five year deal for 60MM. Thankfully this didn’t happen, and I’m ever so relieved.

The Olson/Cedeno for Heilman Trade

The other news today came from the Cubs acquiring Aaron Heilman from the Mariners for infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson. The intriguing piece of this deal is Olson. I’ve seen him pitch a number of times, and he did look over-matched the past few seasons in the majors. He did pitch well in the minors however, and he might do well in the friendly confines of Safeco. Maybe this game that Olson pitched against Seattle late last year played a factor in this move…

In either case, the Cubs had Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Cedeno all out of options this Winter. So far they’ve dealt two of them, and have only acquired a pitcher that Mets fans can vouch for being a disaster. In my opinion, that’s selling low on a great amount of talent.

Too much caffeine has me up late this evening. Any ways Jack Marshall has a piece up on THT, notably about super agent Scott Boras. It’s definitely a piece worth reading. Any ways I wanted to chime in about two of his clients, Carlos Beltran and Bernie Williams:

Scott Boras has over 60 major league clients, and most of them are not free agents. But unwaivable conflicts can arise with these as well. Several years ago, Boras client Bernie Williams was trying to hold on to his job as the New York Yankee center fielder, and Boras free agent client Carlos Beltran was eager to play center field in New York. He ended up signing with the Mets. Boras was ready to negotiate with the Yankees as well, evidently—ethically, he had to be, or he would not be serving Beltran’s interests. But if he was successful bargaining with the Yankees on behalf of Beltran, he would have been simultaneously sabotaging Williams, negotiating him out of a job. One way or the other, he was conflicted.

Keep in mind that this was back at the end of the 2004 season. Beltran was coming of a mammoth walk-year, hitting 38 bombs with the Royals and the Astros. His postseason was also torrid, as the team took their NLCS against the Cardinals to Game 7 (they later made the World Series the following year.) In either case, Beltran was a free agent and the Yankees were on the verge of signing him (ridiculously close), to a contract worth 96MM. However as Marshall pointed out, the Yankees already had a declining center fielder under a seven year, 87MM deal. This little conflict of interest played itself out a little longer. In the process, Boras was able to net his client another 20MM from the Mets (I’m sure George Steinbrenner wishes that he had Beltran in the outfield right now regardless.)

Granted Williams’ stats were clearly on the decline at that time, however Boras played the strong economy to his favor and got Beltran more money thereafter. Now obviously the economic climate has changed, and it’s interesting to think if Boras could be able to pull a hat trick like this again, or anytime soon… it’s interesting to note that Williams is mulling a comeback, as mentioned a couple of days ago on mlb.com.

…still too fucking expensive:

Abreu is now backing off of his demands of $16 million per year. Instead, he is willing to accept a deal around $10-11 million over three years.

MLBTR thinks that this could now bring the Dodgers, Reds or Braves into the mix, but cautions that they may all still balk at even $10 million.

While teams were scooping up bad fielding sluggers to fill their DH positions (sans Raul Ibanez), Abreu was demanding 18MM a year. Now that all of the 14 DH spots are essentially filled, Abreu cut his demands in half. According to the Fielding Bible, Abreu was ranked a -24, the fourth worst defensive outfielder. In other words teams should pay him just to hit… and with Adam Dunn, Garrett Anderson and others still on the market, Abreu might have to cut his demands in half again. He should have been asking for Milton Bradley money a month ago, back when Bradley was still on the market.

My guess, he’ll ink a one year deal with some team for 6MM in 2009. And my guess… it’s the Yankees.

News item from today, the Rockies extended Ubaldo Jiminez to a four year contract worth 10MM. If the two option years are extended (one of them being a free agent year), it’ll be worth over 22MM. It’s a move that I love (12-12, 3.99 in 2008), and I was expecting a big year out of him last year, though I bet on Franklin Morales instead.

As we all know by now, the Royals locked up Zack Greinke yesterday. Granted it’s an expensive contract (especially in comparison to Jiminez’s at 38MM), but fans and statisticians loved the deal, especially with Greinke coming off of a very good year. Actually many people loved the deal, especially the depressed Royals fans (here’s one, here’s another.

I’ve said a few times on this blog that I secretly loved the work that Dayton Moore has done. Again, here’s one, here’s another. I actually liked the Jose Guillen signing, and though 2008 was bad, I expect him to bounce back. They have a good rotation, an improved lineup, and one hell of a closer who should be starting. This team has a great amount of talent, and have been quietly improving, especially over the last three years:

If you give them a 4% for 2009 over the previous season, the Royals are a .500 team this season. However I’m going out on a limb here. Put me down for 87 wins. I like the Royals. They will surprise. They will be this year’s Rays. Yes, I know I say this every year, but Moore assembled quite an interesting group. And coupled with Trey Hillman’s player-friendly personality, this team will be going places, especially in a weak AL Central.

Per mlb.com:

The Royals made their fair share of additions this offseason, but arguably their biggest priority remained: Make sure Zack Greinke stays in Kansas City for the long-term. On Monday, they got their guy.

By signing Greinke to a four-year contract, Kansas City has a critical member of its young core in Royal blue through 2012. And Greinke’s emergence as one of baseball’s solid young pitchers is complete after trying times just a couple years ago.

Dayton Moore did something very good today, and this should make peace with his fans after he foolishly gave a two year, 9.25MM deal to reliever Kyle Farnsworth earlier this offseason.

Greinke is the team’s ace, racks up strike outs, and does something that very few Royals’ pitchers have done recently: won games. He’ll get 38MM over the four years (the last two being free agency years.) It’s clear that Cole Hamels‘ contract was used as a basis for the negotiations. In either case, to echo similar sentiment, Royals fans should be happy that Moore didn’t package their ace to Atlanta for Jeff Francoeur.

Before I start this little “see I told you so", I want to pay some great props to the ever exciting Roto Professor. He interviewed Baltimore Sun beat writer Jeff Zrebiec about what’s in store for the Orioles. As a Baltimore fan, these questions were fun to read…

***

Any ways we’re about a month or so after the arbitration offers were handed out by the teams to their Type ( A | B ) free agents. Granted there was some oversight on both sides. Bobby Abreu is still fighting for a three year, 48MM contract (fat chance dawg.) Maybe the Yankees should have offered him arbitration… any ways on to the other end of things, we’ve been having to hear about the poverty cases that are developing by the players who turned down their offers of arbitration. Notably this list includes Type A free agents Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and everyone’s favorite captain, Jason Varitek.

Sucka.

I’ve talked about the Varitek situation before, and I predicted the fallout weeks back about it. However now we’re starting to see this story envelope itself out to the financial markets… from Blogging Stocks today:

Varitek’s decision to reject the offer of arbitration probably cost him upwards of $5 million – maybe closer to $10 million.

Here’s the question: Why didn’t Varitek just accept arbitration and avoid this whole predicament? According to MLB.com: “Varitek was not aware that teams would have to surrender a No. 1 Draft pick to sign him, and he takes full responsibility for his decision.”

The moral of the story: Understand contracts and offers before you accept or reject them! And fire your agent if he doesn’t do a better job educating you. . . .

Wait…wait…wait…wait… so you’re telling me that Varitek didn’t know about the issue of draft pick compensation? Varitek is a smart guy, and he’s represented by an even smarter fellow in Scott Boras. However I’m pretty much sure that Boras brought up the issue with Varitek many times. And I’m pretty much sure that Boras told his client that a Jorge Posada-sized contract awaited him this offseason, which was four years in excess of 52MM.

Yeah hindsight is clearly 20/20. The catcher market (thanks to the Texas Rangers) is saturated. And as we’re starting to see, teams would rather sign a backup like Henry Blanco or Brad Ausmus than spend the money (and the first round draft pick) on Varitek. Varitek should have took that one year offer from the Red Sox. But he didn’t… and now we have to watch the PR disaster cover up from the Scott Boras Corporation. Apparently AIG isn’t the only one requesting a bailout here…

The Brewers signed Prince Fielder this evening to a two year contract for 18MM. He was clearly unhappy last year when the front office renewed his contract for a paltry 670K (he could have gotten the league minimum by the way.) Terms aren’t quite known yet, however if the two parties split their differences with this deal and Fielder got 7MM in 2009, then he’ll get 11MM in 2010. I’m not sure if Scott Boras could negotiate any better than that.

I tried to pick a local story to get some opinion from, and this is the best that I can get:

The Brewers avoid going to the arbitration table with Fielder and won’t have to deal with infamous agent Scott Boras for two years.

Case in point. Negotiating with Boras is a bitch, and as we’ve seen recently, he’s cool with letting his clients ink up to two years in value (e.g. Matt Holiday), especially since we’re currently in a recession and market values won’t have much of an impact of that short period of time. As long as Boras lets his client graduate into the free agency pasture as quickly as he can, then everyone will be happy.

Baring any Nick Markakis-type contract extension, Fielder will become a free agent after the 2011 season.

I’m surprised this isn’t getting as much coverage as it should be. Everyone knows by now that the Rangers lost pitching prospect (first round 2004 draft pick) Eric Hurley for 2009. He was penciled in to be the team’s #3 starter, however due to his shoulder problems this won’t be happening. Baseball America wrote up an analysis of the injury, and John Sickels commented about it today as well. Sickels, being the master of prognostication and such, wrote this a month ago:

Worried about health here. I held onto him too long as a higher-ranked prospect, but could do better with a change of scenery.

Checkmate, he called it here. Granted Jon Daniels did a wonderful job building up the team’s talent pool of late (they’re ESPN’s #1 orginization according to Keith Law), and there’s plenty of arms ready to step in as well to mitigate the blow. I’m excited to see Neftali Feliz pitch, and Derek Holland is his southpaw equivalent. Matt Harrison is already part of the rotation.

Now as an Orioles fan, I’m seeing the same similarities here. The Orioles have a plethora of young arms ready to make an impact (e.g Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, et al.), much like how Texas did a year ago. Building a team around young pitching is crucial and key today, and if news of a pitcher being out for a season arises (e.g. Hurley or Troy Patton or whomever), there needs to be someone ready to step in. Just ask Tampa Bay… a Jake McGee injury hurt them last year, but thankfully there are plenty of other arms for the organization to fall back on.

***

Some “closing humor", CNN’s Jon Heyman ironically quipped this bit of information today:

Oddly, starting pitchers still aren’t as well-rewarded as relievers as first-year arbitration-eligible players. This is the only time where relievers have the edge, and there’s no rhyme or reason to it. While star closer Jonathan Papelbon got $6.25 million and fellow closer Bobby Jenks $5.6 million, the ceiling for starters in their first year of arbitration still seems to be the $4.35 million that Dontrelle Willis got three years back (and that deal included some deferred monies). Hamels’ contract calls for $4 million in 2009, his first year of arbitration eligibility, a major bargain by any accounting.

For someone who once suggested that Francisco Rodriguez be given the MVP award for the AL, this was very odd to read this afternoon…

Why in the world did the Padres and Kevin Towers have any interest in signing Brad Ausmus? Going all ShysterBall on y’all:

Ausmus, who makes his home in nearby Del Mar, Calif., was a player Towers talked too often during the offseason. The two are also friends.

Any ways that was short-lived, since he signed a few hours later to be Russell Martin’s backup in Los Angeles. Towers countered immediately by signing Henry Blanco.

Is it just me, or are these two teams in strict competition over major league retreads who shouldn’t even be bringing a bat into the batters box? Blanco thankfully is a much more competent hitter than Ausmus, still neither of them should ever be pushed into full-time duty if need be. I think this all started when Towers countered Ned Colletti’s Juan Castro signing with his signing of David Eckstein. Exciting. These kind of things only happen on the left coast…

Keith Law (of ESPN) has his top prospects list out. As an Orioles fan, I’m ecstatic to see that he picked Orioles’ catcher Matt Wieters as his top prospect. As a team, Baltimore is tenth on his list of 30 teams. Granted they have a top heavy system currently, but hopefully the prospects that they picked in the draft last summer will start to mature.

…Law had the Top 100 Prospects list up earlier, but it’ll be out tomorrow (he must have took it down)… any ways from what I can remember:

1. Wieters - C - BAL
2. David Price - SP - TAM
3. Jason Heyward - OF - ATL
4. Netfali Feliz - SP - TEX
5. Travis Snider - OF - TOR

***

I had a great discussion with a co-worker today at work. It was centered around Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, whom as everyone now knows asked for 18MM in arbitration this year. The Phillies countered with 14MM, however in the end Howard will get some figure between these two numbers. If he goes to arbitration (again as expected, since 4MM is a Cecil Fielder-sized ground to cover), he’ll be awarded a salary at one of the end points.

In the end it’s all about marginal revenue product, and Howard clearly meets this figure for the Phillies (after all he’s on all their media guides, and such.) Still in comparison to other first baseman out there, if he’s awarded the 18MM next season, his salary will only trail new Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira. And this also includes St. Louis Cardinals’ star Albert Pujols.

My friend and I had the typical argument. Yes, Howard hits home runs, we know. He also drives in runs, again we know. My side was that his defense was poor (19 errors), the 199 strikeouts again are tough to swallow (though the record is now held by Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds), and his batting average (.250) and on base percentage (.330) are approaching Mike Jacobs territory, a first baseman only asking 3MM this year in arbitration.

So let’s be fair now, the two sides are definitely going to arbitration. And if the panel of three arbitrators thinks like baseball writers do when it comes to HOF voting, we’re fucked. That is:

Arbitrator #2: All right, can the two sides present their arguments?
Howard: I DRIVE IN RUNS!
Arbitrator #1: Haha, oh yes you do!
Club Official: (murmuring) Oh shit.
Arbitrator #3: We rule the 2009 salary in favor of the player. Case dismissed.

Bah, the sad thing for Phillies fans is that they’ll still have two more years of this circus. Howard is a free agent in 2012, and by that point he’ll be making around 25MM a year if he follows the expected path. Pujols on the other hand will also be a free agent (assuming the club picks up that 16MM option for 2011, easy call.) Now which of these two first baseman would you rather have on board?

I know Howard’s dad is pushing him to ask for more money, and there’s nothing wrong with this. However the more he asks, the more his trade value diminishes. Very few teams could afford him now as it is, and after two more years of this, he’ll be the most expensive first baseman on the market yet to hit free agency. Yikes!

I criticized Howard last year, and I honestly expected the panel to rule in favor of the club (who offered 7MM to Howard’s 10MM in 2008.) The panel sided with Howard. If they do the same again this year, the Phillies need to start exploring trade options. It’s a bad state of affairs to be in. Management was able to lock up their starts early and quickly. This includes Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels (covered three of his four arbitration years), and of today Jayson Werth. The team should also consider locking up Shane Victorino as well. In either case, Howard signing a long term deal, highly unlikely. However I don’t see any team wanting to take him on. It’s a huge catch 22 for the Phillies, and there’s not much they can do until Howard leaves at the end of the 2011 season as a free agent. It wouldn’t be a good PR move if they non-tender the big guy…

I’m reading THT’s Lost in Transactions for this week, written by Evan Brunell. He first chimes in on Koji Uehara, the Japanese control expert that Baltimore signed back on Tuesday:

The Orioles will put him back into the rotation and Uehara has the potential to pair up with Jeremy Guthrie to finally give the team a decent front of the rotation.

He then chimes in on yesterday’s trade with the Cubs, which sent Garrett Olson to Chicago for Felix Pie:

I like this deal a lot for the Orioles … the Orioles get the better “reward.” Pie can be an All-Star outfielder, while it’s doubtful Olson will ever make an All-Star Game.

He also quips on the Orioles’ playoff chances for next season:

Reports have the team interested in Braden Looper; if they can do that they could surprise in 2009. The three heavyweights in front of them are terrible luck; put them in any other division, give them Looper and you have to consider them a playoff contender.

Regular readers to this blog know that I’ve been wanting the Orioles to grab Pie for a year now. I also want them to grab Looper badly as well. They have two solid starters for now, and will probably patch in the rest with arms in the Liz, Henderson, Waters, et al. Having a third arm in the mix will add more competition, at least until the talented young arms make their way to the rotation. Chris Tillman and Jake Arietta should be on the roster some time during the season, and if Brian Matusz moves as quickly through the minors as Matt Wieters did, he’ll be in Baltimore Summer 2010.

The team currently has a very athletic, talented outfield. All three of their outfielders are “five tool” players, natural center fielders who will cover a lot of outfield ground next season. There are questions within the infield as well, whereas three quarters of their infield are free agents this season, and their shortstop is a free agent after 2010.

Nonetheless, the moves have been good the past few days, and it’ll be fun to see this team perform. The lineup can hit (big time), they have great defense (something Andy MacPhail preaches), and their bullpen is very solid. The starting pitching… well they need to bring in another arm. Still this off-season has left me optimistic… and them extending Nick Markakis was brilliant. At 65MM over six years, he’s not getting a hometown discount (it’s more Alex Rios money), but he’s one of the most coveted outfielders in the game. And if you take Fan Graphs’ new statistics seriously, Markakis is worth 24MM a year. Again, these are moves that the Orioles should be making, and I’m finally glad to see that they’re doing it.

This is the only fitting thing to do.

***

Manager Bud Black didn’t need to be sold on the idea of David Eckstein signing with the Padres.

Uh oh, you know where this is going.

During their first stint together in 2001, Eckstein —- who agreed to a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Padres on Thursday to play second base —- quickly made a strong impression on Black, then the Angels’ pitching coach. Black remembered that, because of an injury, the Angels asked the unheralded rookie, a 5-foot-6, 170-pound waiver claim, to switch from second base to shortstop during spring training.

Here we go… we’re getting warmed up folks.

Eckstein responded quickly, Black recalled, thus beginning a successful run in which he was the club’s shortstop for four seasons, including the 2002 World Series championship team.

Eckstein had as much of a role on their team’s success as the Rally Monkey did. Take that thought as you may.

“We had a coaches’ meeting, and Mike (Scioscia) asked Alfredo Griffin if he thought Eck could be a shortstop,” Black said. “Alfredo looked at Mike and said, ‘I don’t know about the arm, but let’s give it a shot.’ He put a ton of time in at short, did everything he could to adapt to making all throws. He did everything he could to make himself a shortstop in about a two-to-three-week period.

Arm? Check. Range? Check. Bat? Check. Wait a minute…

“It was great to watch.”

Says whom?

Now Eckstein, a two-time All-Star, hopes to make an equally large impression in San Diego. Saying he turned down bigger contracts, Eckstein was lured to the Padres by the promise of being their starting second baseman.

What “bigger contracts” did he turn down? He wasn’t exactly Boston’s Plan B after they lost out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes.

Eckstein said he nearly signed with the Padres for the 2008 season, but they had already made an offer to Tadahito Iguchi. Eckstein, who turns 34 on Tuesday, instead signed with Toronto and was later traded to Arizona, hitting a combined .265 in 324 at-bats.

Earning his 4.5MM salary with honor and pride (hitting two homers and stealing two bases in the process.)

“I knew (the Padres) couldn’t make the commitment financially, but they could offer the opportunity,” said Eckstein, who can earn an additional $150,000 in incentives. “There were definitely other offers out there, with probably more money, but I wanted the opportunity as everyday second baseman.”

What really happened was that Kevin Towers saw his rival Dodgers sign Juan Castro, and Towers made this move out of fear.

General manager Kevin Towers said the Padres’ pursuit of Eckstein last year was slowed by the mistaken belief that Eckstein wanted to stay at shortstop, and the club decided to offer Iguchi a contract first. By the time the confusion was cleared up, Iguchi was on the verge of signing and Towers said he “felt obligated” not to go back on his word. But a year later, Towers believes Eckstein’s addition will pay immediate dividends.

It didn’t also help that Eckstein was originally seeking a three year contract in excess of 27MM in total as well.

“You could hear it in David’s voice,” Towers said. “The enthusiasm and passion for winning baseball. You immediately make your ballclub better. Watching him from the opposing (side), he was a fierce competitor. He always found a way to make something happen.”

Yeah I agree. The Padres now have a “fierce” middle infield. What’s the over/under on whether they’ll lose 100 games this season?

Black is similarly excited to have Eckstein, who owns a .351 career on-base percentage. For a team coming off a season in which it finished with a .317 on-base percentage, its lowest since 1993, Eckstein could be the perfect fit.

Technically I can think of better “perfect fits” than Eckstein.

“First and foremost, he’s a good player and he’s going to bring an element to our club that we need,” Black said. “He has a knack to get on base. He’s a great handler of the bat. He gets big hits off good pitchers. And the way he goes about the daily grind of playing baseball, it’s going to be great for our younger players.”

Hahahaha, yeah right. It must be because David’s a “scrappy” player. Oh well. The only thing this move will do is make Jake Peavy waive his no-trade clause at a much faster rate than before… I’m so glad I’m not a Padres fan today.

The HOF results are in, as we all know by now. Rickey Henderson was an easy choice (in better shape than most outfielders today by the way), Jim Rice brought about years of debate. And then of course there’s still Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris. Blyleven is another area for debate. I’m only 27, and I grew up watching him in the twilight of his career, as an, um, Angel (same goes with Henderson believe it or not.) Blyleven’s statistics clearly warrant entrance, especially if Goose Gossage made it.

Any ways, the always exciting Jon Heyman chimes in about this, and this drew the ire of BA’s Rich Lederer:

Unlike me, you covered Blyleven when he pitched for the Angels toward the end of his career. Unlike you, I umpired a game behind the plate that he pitched. In other words, I saw Bert’s curveball, the one that Bill James and Rob Neyer ranked as the THIRD-BEST EVER in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, up close and personal.

Wow, that was incredibly entertaining. Heyman was a common punching bag for FJM, and he’s pissed me off a few times as well, particularly in regards to awards voting.

If You Don’t Qualify for the ERA Title…

I read an interesting blog today on Adjusted ERA+. The 2008 statistics for relievers last season were astonishing… Mariano Rivera at 314, Joakim Soria at 268, even Francisco Rodriguez at 198… Keep in mind that Pedro Martinez is second all time at 160 for his career. Long story short, I’m still not over the MVP voting results from last year. Particularly with Rodriguez, who managed to garner a first place vote from some baseball writer (I’ve postulated many times to be Heyman.) I’m also disappointed with the fact that Albert Pujols wasn’t an unanimous selection.

Whoever cast that first ballot vote violated the cardinal sin of BBWAA voting, which is Thou Shalt Not Vote for a Reliever. If you cannot qualify for the ERA title, then you shouldn’t be the MVP, it’s that simple. However there are writers who still give merit to players who do well in statistics that measure opportunity, not value. I’m obviously referring to the save (e.g. Rodriguez) and the RBI (e.g. Ryan Howard.)

We can demonstrate this little quandary with the following analogy. Let R1 and R2 be relief pitchers, pitching in season S. At the end of S, both pitchers accrued the following statistics:

• R1: 81 G, 81.0 IP, 81 S, 200 ERA+
• R2: 162 G, 162.0 IP, 0 S, 400 ERA+

Obviously I’m trying to demonstrate that R2 pitched twice as well as R1, however it is easily seen that the better pitcher didn’t accumulate any saves. The first pitcher saved half of his team’s games. If being generous, that is if he saved 75% of the team’s wins, then his team won 108 games throughout the course of S. His team clearly made it deep into the playoffs.

Now when November comes around, and it’s time to chose an MVP, which of the two pitchers would garner MVP consideration. First things first, from what we see, R2 would easily win the ERA title (since he pitched in just enough innings.) He also would shatter the single-season ERA+ record for simply qualifying. However I’d be curious to see how many voters threw votes at R1. Heyman I’m sure would be one, since he’d shatter the single-season saves record (currently held by Rodriguez.) And as I stated sentences ago, R1 was on a hefty playoff contender, something BBWAA voters consider heavily when choosing awards.

Had R2 not qualified for the ERA title, I’m sure that he wouldn’t get any MVP consideration himself, since he didn’t accrue any saves. Going from the numbers I gave above, his team was either blown out or won their games handsomely. He could have also exclusively pitched every seventh inning throughout the season for the team.

Saves don’t tell us anything about a player’s value. The same thing goes with RBI. Using another odd hypothetical case, take some hitter who drives in 150 runs during the season, all on sacrifice flies. How the hitter accomplished this could be done a number of ways (e.g. the hitter before him was a triples machine.) The hitter could have a .290/.390/.515 line, he could have a .180/.285/.300 line, we don’t know.

In either case I’m on Lederer’s defense here. Heyman made me lose my share of hair of the past few years. So what if he breaks rumors before everyone else. He needs to look deeper at a player’s stats before voting on any postseason award, not just on saves and RBIs.

I wanted to comment on the news coming out of Texas, in regards to Rangers’ shortstop Michael Young. Young demanded a trade last month, mainly out of irritation that he’s being asked to move to third base. The position is currently being manned by Hank Blalock, whose 6.2MM option was picked up by the club after the season ended. As to whether the presence of young (and defensively-talented) Elvis Andrus played a role or not, it’s yet to be seen. Still Young regressed with his bat in 2008, hitting .284/.346/.442. He however won the Gold Glove at his position last season.

I recall his name being mentioned at the Winter Meetings last month, and there were little takers. I’m not sure if Jon Daniels was asking too much for him or not, however if there’s one thing that would steer any interested team away, it would be Young’s albatross of a contract, which kicks in this upcoming season. Young made roughly 6MM last season (counting All Star bonuses and such), however his salary will jump up to 16MM for the 2009 season. He’ll be paid that figure throughout the duration of his contract, which runs through 2013. In either case, that’s a hefty pill for any team to swallow, even if 15MM of his contract is being deferred by the Rangers. Texas will have to eat some money to make a deal happen.

Texas could also keep Young, however with his disgruntlement and salary, I’m sure that he’ll be moved at some point in the next few years or so. Then again, Young will have to wait for the economy to improve, since very few teams (outside of the Yankees) are going to take on that payroll commitment in the current state. Besides, the Rangers’ system is incredibly deep at the moment. We all know that Andrus is on his way, however I’m very curious to see the impact that Netfali Feliz will bring to their (currently abysmal) pitching staff.

I was just reading Roch… he gives a scouting report on Koji Uehara, a fast ball which tops 89, however he mainly “works in the 82-83 range". I’m not sure how that will fly in the high shooting AL East. Uehara is a control specialist however, however if he gives up something in the ball park of 11 H/9, we’re in trouble. I could be wrong however, Tim Wakefield’s fastball peaks in the 70s and he gets away with it. It’s just something that concerns me, especially with the soft-tossers that Baltimore has tried last season (e.g. Garrett Olsen, Steve Trachsel, Chris Waters.)

Maybe I might be wrong here, and every time that I’ve questioned Andy MacPhail’s decisions, I have been proven to be wrong. MacPhail and the O’s had offers out to Japanese free agents Uehara and Kensin Kawakami… Uehara took the O’s bait, Kawakami took more money from the Braves. He’s getting a three year deal by the way, and terms of it are still to be disclosed… keep in mind that Hiroki Kuroda got 35MM last year from the Dodgers, and that’s what Kawakami was rumored to be seeking. My guess is that the Orioles offered him three years at 7MM per, I’m curious to see what he signed for today.

…

Any ways with Kawakami and Tim Redding now both off of the board, there aren’t too many other options to patch this weak rotation. The arm I would love to see the O’s land is Braden Looper, however I expect the Dodgers to pick up their push for him now with these two arms off the board. Ben Sheets is available but I don’t see any interest. Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe, I expect each of these pitchers to land in the NL East. One last arm… Jon Garland (ugh.) The O’s did inquire on him over the Winter Meetings, however they quickly learned of his asking price, which was five years, 65MM. Keep in mind that was the contract that Baltimore gave Albert Belle years ago, and we all know how “hip” of a signing that was. Any ways long story short, outside of Looper the Orioles should just sit back and let the young arms run the show again (parts of Bowie’s rotation will be close by in Norfolk this week.) And I wouldn’t sign Garland, that would be a disaster. Even if his asking price came down to 25% of what he wants, I’d still say “no.”

A number of small deals were done these past weeks, and obviously I’m not able to comment on them as they each come in. Any ways I’ll address the pros and cons of these moves, and give each signing a grade as well, for kicks.

Mets sign starting pitcher Tim Redding

If there was a pitcher that I wished Baltimore would have signed, I was hoping it was him. Redding is a little better than a fourth starter, and as I brought up a few days ago, there was a great post up on Beyond the Box Score which goes into great detail explaining that. Any ways Redding is now part of the Mets’ property, and if you’re a Mets fan you shouldn’t be any happier about this signing.

Redding should be counted on for 180 innings in 2008, however a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are a likelihood. Any ways this is a one year deal, and at 2.25MM they got a bargain. This move gives the Mets some more leverage against the Philies, and also weakens their divisional opponents the Washington Nationals (if that’s even possible.) Hopefully Redding can be used as the fourth starter, pushing Mike Pelfrey back to the fifth spot to cut down his workload from last season. If the Mets sign Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe, that would also help.

Grade: A-

Red Sox sign pitcher John Smoltz

If you do a search, Theo Epstein also inked outfielders Mark Kotsay and Rocco Badelli to contracts this week (I’ll leave this as homework.) He also signed pitcher Brad Penny to a 5MM contract back in December as well. In either case with all of these deals, Boston got themselves quality outfield and pitching depth, and they didn’t over-pay for any of it. Smoltz and Penny are intriguing options themselves. If they revert back to their 2007 form this season, the Red Sox could be a dangerous team for an already difficult AL East. I know it’s a good problem to have, but Clay Buchholz is currently seventh on the team’s depth chart now. However I don’t see any reason why the team should trade him for catching.

Grade: B+

Brewers sign closer Trevor Hoffman

The Brewers snagged themselves a solid ninth inning option, however they’ll be paying Hoffman 6MM in 2009; they had to give up an extra 2MM to convince him not to sign with the Dodgers.

Even in midst of the Padres’ abysmal season last year, Hoffman still managed to save 30 games, or roughly half of their team’s wins. Keep in mind that he’ll be moving out of the “cavernous” Petco, but that shouldn’t be a problem. 2008 was just a bad year in general for the Padres, Hoffman and everyone else included. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoffman rebound nicely in 2009. There’s clearly some upside here.

Grade: B

Reds resign infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

He’ll get 2MM in 2009. It’s not a bad contract by any means (I expected Hairston to pick up more money), however he’ll be back for the Reds and is a good threat for 30 steals, 80 runs, double digit home runs and a .290 average. Hairston’s versatility is key here, as is can play any of the outfield positions as well (especially given that the team lost Ryan Freel back in December to the Orioles.) Hairston can also serve as a corner infielder if need be.

The irony about this deal is that the Padres signed his brother Scott Hairston to a 1.25 deal yesterday as well. Still, Hariston is a much better option than Willy Tavares.

Grade: B-

Baltimore made an interesting move today, inking Japanese free agent pitcher Koji Uehara to a two year deal worth about 10MM. Incentives could push this up around 16MM, however it’s a very low risk signing. Hopefully this will cajole Kenshin Kawakami to have interest in the O’s now as well.

I’ve said it before often on here, Baltimore has some intriguing arms coming up in the minors, names such as Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and Chris Tillman. And of course, last season’s Double-A rotation (Tillman included) was stacked. Their Double-A affiliate Bowie challenged for the Eastern League crown. In either case, the arms won’t be here for another year yet, so stop gap arms (like Mark Hendrickson) must be brought in to eat the innings. Signing these imports for two year deals isn’t a bad move on Andy MacPhail’s behalf. Due to the slow market and teams cutting back, there are many bargain arms that can be found, and it’s clearly a buyer’s market. Sooner or later, someone will scoop up Tim Redding and Braden Looper. (On an aside, BTBS wrote a great essay outlining why Redding is a bargain.)

To summarize, I like this signing. I wouldn’t mind another starter, and a backup catcher, which I think Baltimore is looking at currently. If anyone is interested, Uehara should fare as a high-end #4, low end #3 starter, pitching in the AL East. I’m guessing a 4.30 ERA for him in 2009. Marcel does not include him in their projections for 2009.

Admittedly, the past few nights I haven’t gotten much sleep. I’m not sure if these are correlated, however I read an interesting piece today on Baseball America, asking whether Pablo Sandoval should catch? Catcher is Sandoval’s natural position, and many people (at least in the fantasy baseball realm) would love to see Sandoval catch. Then again they’re set at the moment with their 95 RBI-man Bengie Molina, and of course have the #5 pick in last year’s Amateur Draft Buster Posey all but ready to go in two years.

Sandoval is one of the two young Giants that could end up making some serious fantasy noise in 2009 (the other being speedy second baseman Emmanuel Burriss.) Sandoval got most of his action last year at first base (putting up a nice .345/.357/.490 line), though he did catch eleven games behind the plate. In regards to where Bruce Bochy plays him in 2009, it’s yet to be seen. He’s a nice bat, don’t get me wrong, however he might not even make the team out of Spring Training next season. Currently on the team’s depth chart, Travis Ishikawa is the leading candidate to start at first on Opening Day. I’m also a fan of Josh Phelps as well, who I think will surprise many (he was blocked by Albert Pujols last year in St. Louis.)

In either case, Brian Sabean brought in some outstanding pitching (and also has some great arms in the minors about to make some noise as well.) He assembled a great bullpen. Now how about bringing in some offense to support the starters? The Giants need corner infielders, they’ve been needing them for the past couple years. I like Joe Crede, and at a 6MM contract for one year, I’d do it. I’d also offer 10MM to Adam Dunn and see if he bites (given Pat Burrell’s contract today, he might possibly do so.) In either case, I really like what the Giants are doing so far with their off-season. They desperately need to bring in some bats though; you can’t run an offense on Aaron Rowand alone.

I’ll go back to bed now.

The corner-outfielder, DH market finally made another glacial step forward today. Two hitters were signed today. The Cubs inked Milton Bradley (and his .999 OPS from 2008) to a three year deal for 30MM. And the Rays (believe it or not) inked Pat Burrell to a two year contract for 16MM. He’ll be the team’s everyday DH in 2009.

When I saw the Burrell deal, I was shocked. This was once again a genius move made by Andrew Friedman. At 8MM a year for a .870 OPS hitter, Burrell is a bargain. And he might be even more valuable next year since he won’t have to bring a glove out to the field. Any ways many people agree with this statement, and are projecting him to be a .260 hitter with 30 home runs in Tropicana Field. BTBS said it elegantly today about the beauty of the Burrell signing.

It’s difficult to improve a team that made it to the World Series and had a third-order Pythagorean record of 97-65. But by replacing Edwin Jackson with David Price, adding Matt Joyce as a right fielder and inserting Pat Burrell as the DH, the Rays have done just that.

They also added in the fact that Burrell will essentially be paid the same as Mike Cuddyer, the Twins’ right fielder. That is 8MM is buying a 120 OPS+ outfielder for the Rays, and a 95 OPS+ outfielder for the Twins. That is a viable point, however the main point that should be discussed with these two signings is draft pick compensation. Bradley was a Type B free agent, Burrell was Type A, according to Elias. The Rangers offered Bradley (who made 5MM in 2008) arbitration. He rejected it. The Phillies refused to offer Burrell arbitration (who made 14.25MM in 2008.)

Many people questioned whether the Phillies should have offered Burrell arbitration or not. The one caveat is that if Burrell would have accepted, the smallest the Phillies could have paid him (according to labor rules) would be 11MM in 2009. However in reality, he would have most likely commanded 16MM for next season. It made sense for the Rangers to offer Bradley arbitration, given how cheaply he was paid in 2008. The same theory applies to Raul Ibanez, a Type A whom the Mariners offered arbitration to. Ibanez was well-underpaid in Seattle at 5.5MM in 2008, and at least he’ll finally have a solid paycheck in Philly.

Say what you want about the Phillies signing Ibanez (many negatives, some positives), however the issue here lies with arbitration. I still think the Phillies should have made an offer to Burrell. They would have known by the first week of December if he would have accepted it or not. And judging by how the players union generally prefers free agency to arbitration (Jason Varitek is surely wishing he accepted the Red Sox’ offer), Burrell would have most likely rejected it. And the Phillies would then have the Rays’ late first round draft pick in 2009 as a result of this…

As we have learned, the market for bad-fielding corner outfielders (aka DHes) is saturated right now. And Bobby Abreu still expects some team to offer him 18MM a year? The Pat Burrell news couldn’t have been good for him. And with the Rays and Cubs now filling their holes on their roster, I can’t honestly think of a team that could use Abreu. The Mets (and maybe the Braves and Nationals) are the only options that I can think of.

Today was a busy day in baseball. I’ll touch on some of the other stories tonight, however I wanted to chime in with this interesting news item. Twins’ owner Carl Pohlad died today. He was 93 years old.

Pohlad was incredibly wealthy, listed in Forbes as the wealthiest baseball owner in sports. He was also #114 on the Forbes 400 for 2007. Granted with all of his assets, the Twins had a low payroll for many years. And everyone in the media dumped on him because of this.

I wanted to chime in on this, especially since this has been going on for about a decade now. However in all fairness, there’s only so much money that can be thrown at one team. When the team’s only drawing 16,000 fans a game, it doesn’t make sense to have a 100MM team payroll.

I didn’t know Pohlad personally, however the attacks on him by the press were unfair. He donated graciously to charity, and was an avid fan of baseball. He gave what he could to the Twins, however people tend to forget that baseball is a business. And the contraction rumor about him only infuriated many others, especially after he then put the team up for sale. But then again, the Twins at that time were not a marketable product.

Any ways long story short, the Twins have a new stadium coming, an incredible farm system, and with a good decade of winning baseball, things couldn’t be any brighter for the Twins. Yet many are still complaining about the Twins and their small payroll. To say it for the final time, the Twins are not a large market franchise. When you have teams in New York competing for the “best pitcher in the universe” (that is Johan Santana), small market teams cannot afford him. Still Pohlad did and contributed what he could to keep the Twins a competitive franchise, as evidenced in recent extensions to Mike Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan. Baseball lost a fine owner and a great capitalist today, and he will be missed.

I remember reading Baseball Weekly about ten years ago, and they had a piece in there about the “super agents” (I had this thing delivered to my parents’ place, back when it was only $0.75 an issue.) Any ways at this time, mammoth deals were being struck between players and teams. Alex Rodriguez getting 251MM from the Rangers, Derek Jeter getting 189MM from the Yankees, Manny Ramirez getting 160MM from the Red Sox, et al. I forget who the writer was (it might have been Bob Nightengale), however they portrayed the lives of the two super agents, who at the time were Scott Boras and Jeff Moorad.

Moorad with 2008 Presidential Candidate John McCain (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Boras had an impressive list of clients under his stable, however at the time so did Moorad (Matt Williams, Will Clark, et al.) Any ways long story short, Moorad took an executive position with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2004, and has since resigned as of this weekend. The reason why, he’s taking an ownership stake with the San Diego Padres (a divorce precipitated this team’s sale.)

Any ways long story short, my how the tables have turned. It’ll be interesting to see how Moorad deals with a number of things, from the team’s payroll constraints, to their GM Kevin Towers, to the rising salaries of his up-and-coming stars like Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez (his bargain contract is about to be up.) And of course, there’s the whole Jake Peavy saga. Personally I’m glad to see this happen. Padres fans need an owner who will bring a resurgent commitment to the team.

The Latest Brian Roberts Rumor

I wanted to chime in on one more rumor, spread around by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles and White Sox are talking trade for their (2007 All Star) second baseman Brian Roberts. The name that was brought up by Andy MacPhail was Gavin Floyd, a Maryland native who won 17 games with the White Sox in 2008. Ken Williams and the White Sox want to trade the two players straight up, however I expect MacPhail to ask for two more players at least. Floyd’s 2008 win total essentially doubled his career total in parts of four other seasons.

Granted I would love to see this deal, I know Floyd’s potential. Roberts is a free agent in 2009, Floyd is under team control for four more years (being arbitration eligible through his 2010-2012 seasons.) Roberts would essentially need an extension on Chicago’s end, and as Roch mentioned, the Orioles could then ask for their top Triple A second baseman Chris Getz. The White Sox are deep with middle infielders in their system, especially after drafting Gordon Beckham last summer.

So long story short, if I was MacPhail and I was offered four years of Floyd and six years of Getz for one of Roberts (plus Roberts’ 8MM salary coming off the books for 2009), would I make this trade? It would be an easy call for me, but knowing MacPhail he’d probably get Williams to throw in two more minor league players, much like how he did with the Erik Bedard and Ramon Hernandez deals. In other words, it’ll take three or four players built around Floyd to get one year of Roberts. Lunatic yes, but then again that’s how MacPhail rolls. And as an O’s fan I couldn’t be any happier.

I’ve seen this tactic used a good deal, and I’ll attempt to employ it here. It’s the infamous “Player A", “Player B” trick. Using 2008 stats, take a guess on who these two pitchers are:

• Player A: 7 W, 8 L, 133.2 IP, 5.45 K/9, 5.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
• Player B: 8 W, 10 L, 180.0 IP, 4.75 K/9, 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

If you guessed Mark Hendrickson as Player A and Daniel Cabrera as Player B, you are clearly correct. From looking at the stats above, both pitchers had similar 2008 campaigns. Cabrera’s strikeouts were down last year, but so were his losses (he lost 18 games in 2007.)

I’m not saying Hendrickson (a York, PA native like myself) is an improvement by any means, however he’ll help mitigate the loss of the innings that Cabrera ate. Both pitchers provided negative value for their teams (each costing their teams about 1.5 wins), however Cabrera was paid 2.8MM, Hendrickson 1.5MM. It was clear to see why Andy MacPhail pulled the plug on Cabrera (a ~10MM loss from last year.) He only regressed further in 2008 (as evidenced by his 5.61 FIP, wow.)

Long story short, Baltimore needs pitching, and Hendrickson provides essentially the same value as Cabrera, however at 1.5MM he’ll cost at least 1MM less than Cabrera (the smallest pay the Orioles could have gave him in 2009 was 2.5MM, according to the labor contract.) Still, Hendrickson alone won’t solve their pitching woes. I like Braden Looper, and I think a three year deal would be beneficial for his services. The same thing goes with Kensin Kawakami (apparently the O’s have an offer out for him), however anything over 10MM a year is a huge risk.

I know Baltimore fans are anxious and are wanting to see Andy MacPhail make some more moves. I’m glad that he’s staying the course. He inherited a hell of a mess in 2007. It took the O’s years to get into the mess, it’ll take them years to get out of it.

First things first, I want to wish everyone a safe and prosperous 2009. With that said and out of the way, I want to now dig into the big trade from yesterday, that is where the Indians acquired super-utility man Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for three young pitchers. Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub are the arms that are heading to Chicago. Obviously none of these are top arms, e.g. Adam Miller and Hector Rondon. In fact, none of these arms are even Top 20 prospects. The Cubs have been trying to clear up salary the past few days, that is by moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies and sending DeRosa to the Indians (in addition to inking Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.) My guess is that a Jake Peavy trade is around the corner…

I was reading Roch, and someone said that they heard a rumor of this being revisited, that is a three team scenario being back in place (with team #3 being the Orioles.) Baltimore would ship out Garrett Olsen, and in return would receive outfielder Felix Pie (from the Cubs.) The comment I saw also speculated that they’d get Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs as well, but that seems like it would be too much on the Cubs’ behalf. Still, with today’s DeRosa trade, and the “warm bodies” that the Cubs just received, I think a trade for the Padres’ ace is possible, even with the sale of the Cubs up in the air.

Any blockbuster is usually built around one blue-chip prospect, and a remaining collection of arms. San Diego definitely needs pitching, since after they deal Peavy, it’s Chris Young, followed by four question marks. In either case, the blue-chip prospect being moved is most likely third-base phenom Josh Vitters. The Cubs also could move Sean Marshall, plus one or two of the arms received today. Olsen would also be included in the mix. So to summarize, would you trade the ace of your staff, who’s about to make 17MM over the next five years on a team that needs to be near 40MM in payroll, for a good hitting corner infield prospect, and a collection of pitchers that could fill in the holes badly in a rotation? If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d have to say yes.

In the end the Padres benefit… the Orioles benefit (though Mark Hendrickson isn’t actually an exciting signing)… the Cubs of course pay heavily. But the benefit of having Peavy as part of a star-studded one through five rotation is what makes this trade work.

So any ways, I’ve read a few stories yesterday about how this trade is a precursor to something else. The past few moves over the couple of days made by the Cubs were outstanding. They sold high on DeRosa, and finally moved Marquis, who’s about to make 9.8MM in 2009 in the final year of his three year, 21MM contract. People are speculating that this trade will help bring in Milton Bradley. Many are saying that this won’t lead to a Peavy deal. I agree with these statements, however it’s just my gut feeling that I think Peavy will be pitching for the Cubs in 2009.