Late Innings

I know I’m incredibly late with this post (same with the Mark Teixeira discussion.) I got a virus the other day, and that essentially put a damper in my fun. Long story short, everyone by now knows this story. The Orioles non-tendered starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera weeks back, the Nationals, Mets and Pirates were all interested, and Cabrera in fact ended up signing with the Nationals. He got 2.6MM from them for 2009 (essentially a seven percent pay cut from 2008), and is under team control until he becomes a free agent in 2010 (unless the Nationals refuse to tender him a contract next winter that is.)

This story was hit hard days after its announce, and just recently RotoProfessor asked the question as to whether you’d want to own him on your fantasy team. For me it’s an obvious and emphatic “no.” His WHIP is disgusting, strikeouts are down, and his ERA can go in a very bad tailspin in just a matter of three starts. He was essentially a .500 pitcher last year, and that’s largely thanks to a very solid first half. During that first half, many teams were inquiring on Cabrera, and Andy MacPhail could have dealt him easily to the Braves. The main reason why he didn’t? Baltimore was oddly enough in contention in the first half of 2008 (I know that’s odd.) They were a first place team for the first couple months of the season (again, strange), and MacPhail wasn’t going to sell apart a team that was playing incredibly well. The team then stumbled in June, peaked at four games over .500 in July, then went into their traditional late-season tailspin thereafter, locking themselves into the #5 pick for the 2009 Amateur Draft.

Am I disappointed that MacPhail didn’t sell high on Cabrera? Yes. Granted it was fun to watch the team win in April and May, but we all knew that it wasn’t going to last. MacPhail should have stuck to his plan, and not let the team’s sudden winning derail things. Then again, the “winning” allowed the Orioles to keep Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora on their rosters all season, and it was fun to see each of them reestablish their values (Huff was oddly enough not claimed after being exposed to waivers last year after his monster 2008 campaign.)

So anyways lets get back to Cabrera. What do I see from DC in DC? Well not much. I expect him to eat innings for them, being the team’s #3 starter behind John Lannan and Scott Olsen. In regards to others’ projections, Marcel has him at 8-11/4.85/1.55 next year, Bill James has him as a 7-9/5.00/1.53 pitcher. Those are grim signs. As BTBS pointed out weeks ago, Cabrera’s velocity was down in 2008. He relied too heavily on his fastball as well (even with the tutelage of Rick Kranitz), and wasn’t that much of a surprise to hitters. His slider is excellent, however he didn’t use it much. As a result of all of this, he was shutdown for all of September. Then again it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera threw about 3,500 pitches in 2007, and was in the top ten in this category. He pitched 200 innings that year, losing eighteen games in the process, so that wear and tear obviously played a role in 2008.

Long story short, Cabrera should be healthy in 2009. He’ll give the Nationals at least 180 innings in 2009, and at 2.6MM it’s a good deal. He might be a .500 pitcher, but I doubt it (Marcels’ projection is more realistic, given the Nationals’ anemic offense.) The main thing holding Daniel back is his control. When you’re allowing three hitters every two innings, it’s tough to be an effective pitcher. And even though Cabrera is going to the National League, and his ERA might be under five, his control problems are the main thing holding him back from becoming the “next Randy Johnson.” And coming from someone who watched him pitch countless times in Baltimore (often in disgust), my arguments clearly make sense here. The Orioles’ front office obviously was on the same page with me.