Late Innings

News item from yesterday: the Astros made the third free agent signing of the winter, inking pitcher Mike Hampton to a 2MM one-year deal (with 2MM more of possible incentives.) I don’t dislike the move, and was reading a great piece on BTBS today about how the Astros could have better spent their money, especially since they’re supposedly cash-strapped. They recommended that they put 800K into Claudio Vargas, who would basically generate the same results (with a healthier track record.)

The big shocker yesterday was why the Astros declined arbitration to Randy Wolf. Granted he only made 8.5MM last year, but his results in Houston were solid. Were they afraid of him accepting their offer and then going to arbitration with them next February? The smallest paycut he could have took was a 7MM salary for 2009, and I highly doubt that the interest for him would be so good that he’d get a multi-year offer from another team. That’s the same reasoning with Ben Sheets, who was offered arbitration by the Brewers. The Brewers aren’t as bad off financially as the Astros are, and would love to have Sheets back on a one year deal (the same obviously goes with C.C. Sabathia.)

In regards to all the players that were offered arbitration yesterday, BA has a great piece up running through all thirty teams. All in all, 24 players were offered arbitration this year, up from 17 the year before. However in regards to whether the decisions should have been made, the economy clearly played a hand here.

We’re officially in a recession, and if there’s anything good about it, it’s that it’ll drive down the inflated salaries of some particular players. Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite were slated to pull in 18MM next year if the Yankees offered (he’s a Type A), and same thing goes with Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, who could have each made 15MM in 2009. Each should now have salaries in the 8MM to 10MM range next year, due to low demand for their services. Abreu and Pettite were due for pay cuts anyways, especially since the Angels declined Garrett Anderson’s 11.5MM option for 2009 (a very-similar player.)

What also came out of yesterday was the decline in closer demand. Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman weren’t offered arbitration, and would be much safer choices for teams looking at ninth inning help (since draft picks won’t have to be surrendered next June in the Amateur Draft.) Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Brandon Lyon were all offered arbitration yesterday, and this news only hurt their values. If anything I now see Rodriguez getting a deal similar to what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year.

Don’t get me wrong, the upper-echilon of talent will be rewarded this year, that is Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett, any of the Dodgers’ offerings and Raul Ibanez, who should all receive multi-year deals within the next month or two. However players like Jon Garland, Sheets, and even Fuentes and Rodriguez, I can see them accepting the arbitration offerings, simply because the demand is down this year and they can wait around for a year to see if the market turns around.

The economy really is putting a damper on this offseason. I clearly expected more spending and trades. I thought something big was going to happen on Thanksgiving as well. I guess the only thing that teams have to do now is to weather this storm. If anything, this news from yesterday only makes the trades for Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn look poor in retrospect.

Edgar Renteria’s value shot up yesterday. (Reuters Pictures)