Late Innings

Long story short, there were a flurry of moves made today. I’ll analyze each of them, however I wanted to talk about the big signing of the day, that is the Angels signing free agent closer Brian Fuentes.

Fuentes will get 8.5MM in 2009, and 9MM in 2010. There’s also a 9MM vesting option for him in 2011, based on the number of games that he finishes while as an Angel. As to whether this is a player option or team option, I’ll keep checking Cot’s.

I know many of the “saber"-friendly people hate the signings of closers, that is they value them at 5MM a year or what not based on the marginal revenue that they generate, I like this signing big time. Fuentes in my opinion was the best closer on the market. He’s far more durable than Francisco Rodriguez, and was outstanding in 2008. Fuentes was also an All Star in 2007.

The Angels paid Rodriguez 10MM in 2008 (as determined through a losing arbitration case), and they’ll essentially save 1.5MM in “closing costs” going forward. The market for closers has clearly dropped, however I was shocked about the option years between the two elite closers. Rodriguez’s option year is valued at 17.5MM (and is guaranteed after certain stipulations are met.) Fuentes’ is half of that. Again I cannot reiterate enough how good this signing is for the Angels. The main reason why, their stellar bullpen from last season is kept intact. Jose Arrendondo remains the top set up guy, and if Justin Speier can return to form and if Scott Shields remains effective, things can’t be any better for them. Now they just have to address that hole at first base…

In regards to free agent compensation, the Angels will have to surrender their first round pick in next year’s Amateur Draft now to the Rockies, who offered the Type A free agent salary arbitration, which Fuentes rejected. Things are incredibly complicated with the Angels and free agency, since they lost two Type A free agents so far in Mark Teixeira and Rodriguez. Since Teixeira was ranked higher by Elias than Rodriguez, the Yankees will be sending their first round draft pick to the Angels in next year’s draft as well.

Fuentes saved 111 games over the last four seasons for the Rockies. (David Zalubowski/AP)

I know I’m incredibly late with this post (same with the Mark Teixeira discussion.) I got a virus the other day, and that essentially put a damper in my fun. Long story short, everyone by now knows this story. The Orioles non-tendered starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera weeks back, the Nationals, Mets and Pirates were all interested, and Cabrera in fact ended up signing with the Nationals. He got 2.6MM from them for 2009 (essentially a seven percent pay cut from 2008), and is under team control until he becomes a free agent in 2010 (unless the Nationals refuse to tender him a contract next winter that is.)

This story was hit hard days after its announce, and just recently RotoProfessor asked the question as to whether you’d want to own him on your fantasy team. For me it’s an obvious and emphatic “no.” His WHIP is disgusting, strikeouts are down, and his ERA can go in a very bad tailspin in just a matter of three starts. He was essentially a .500 pitcher last year, and that’s largely thanks to a very solid first half. During that first half, many teams were inquiring on Cabrera, and Andy MacPhail could have dealt him easily to the Braves. The main reason why he didn’t? Baltimore was oddly enough in contention in the first half of 2008 (I know that’s odd.) They were a first place team for the first couple months of the season (again, strange), and MacPhail wasn’t going to sell apart a team that was playing incredibly well. The team then stumbled in June, peaked at four games over .500 in July, then went into their traditional late-season tailspin thereafter, locking themselves into the #5 pick for the 2009 Amateur Draft.

Am I disappointed that MacPhail didn’t sell high on Cabrera? Yes. Granted it was fun to watch the team win in April and May, but we all knew that it wasn’t going to last. MacPhail should have stuck to his plan, and not let the team’s sudden winning derail things. Then again, the “winning” allowed the Orioles to keep Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora on their rosters all season, and it was fun to see each of them reestablish their values (Huff was oddly enough not claimed after being exposed to waivers last year after his monster 2008 campaign.)

So anyways lets get back to Cabrera. What do I see from DC in DC? Well not much. I expect him to eat innings for them, being the team’s #3 starter behind John Lannan and Scott Olsen. In regards to others’ projections, Marcel has him at 8-11/4.85/1.55 next year, Bill James has him as a 7-9/5.00/1.53 pitcher. Those are grim signs. As BTBS pointed out weeks ago, Cabrera’s velocity was down in 2008. He relied too heavily on his fastball as well (even with the tutelage of Rick Kranitz), and wasn’t that much of a surprise to hitters. His slider is excellent, however he didn’t use it much. As a result of all of this, he was shutdown for all of September. Then again it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera threw about 3,500 pitches in 2007, and was in the top ten in this category. He pitched 200 innings that year, losing eighteen games in the process, so that wear and tear obviously played a role in 2008.

Long story short, Cabrera should be healthy in 2009. He’ll give the Nationals at least 180 innings in 2009, and at 2.6MM it’s a good deal. He might be a .500 pitcher, but I doubt it (Marcels’ projection is more realistic, given the Nationals’ anemic offense.) The main thing holding Daniel back is his control. When you’re allowing three hitters every two innings, it’s tough to be an effective pitcher. And even though Cabrera is going to the National League, and his ERA might be under five, his control problems are the main thing holding him back from becoming the “next Randy Johnson.” And coming from someone who watched him pitch countless times in Baltimore (often in disgust), my arguments clearly make sense here. The Orioles’ front office obviously was on the same page with me.

Obviously, by reading the title you can tell that I like the Giants’ new signing of Randy Johnson. He’ll slot in nicely in the number three spot in the rotation, and will serve a number of purposes. First and foremost, he’ll deliver at least 175 above-average innings. He’ll add fans to the stands, and most importantly he’ll immediately weaken their division rivals the Diamondbacks.

Johnson’s one year deal is guaranteed 8MM in 2009, with incentives that could push the total compensation up to 12.5MM. It’s a great move by Brian Sabean, and Johnson will clearly bolster their rotation. And as the great RotoProfessor points out, the Giants suddenly have a solid five man rotation from top to bottom. He sees a rebound from Jonathan Sanchez in 2009 (me too, but that WHIP needs to come down.) I honestly expect this signing to benefit Barry Zito more if anything. Zito is not an ace (albeit being paid like one), and with Zito now starting the fourth game of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out of the gate strong in 2009 (I’ll save him for my sleeper list.)

Any ways to summarize things, the Giants have a great rotation, and I like their bullpen also (they signed Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt earlier.) They clearly need offense, and the signings of Edgar Renteria and Josh Phelps will help. If Sabean came to me however and asked me for two players to sign to patch up everything, I would open up the checkbook and bring in the following two pieces:

1. Joe Crede
2. Adam Dunn

I recall a piece from last week on ESPN, essentially complaining about how the Yankees can throw their weight around and sign whomever. Take it if you may, but it did require that they in fact throw another 20MM and a seventh year at C.C. Sabathia, that’s what it required to get it done. A.J. Burnett? Again it took a fifth year and 17MM a year to get him pinstripes. So now there’s one key name left on the market, and there are potentially four teams left bidding for Mark Teixeira. So my question here is, why leave out the Yankees, like everyone is apparently doing?

If it wasn’t for the Yankees, Sabathia would have had to settle on 21MM a year. Burnett would have been lucky to get 14MM per. However unlike last year, they’re here to play, and the MLB Players Union (and Derek Lowe for that matter) can’t be any more grateful.

There was a story today on ESPN today about how the Orioles are suddenly likely to sign Teixeira. There were also rumors a plenty over the weekend about how Tex was in Baltimore over the weekend to watch the Steelers defeat the Ravens. A lot of fans in the area are anxious (me included) as well as excited about the possibility of Teixeira signing with his hometown team, the Orioles. My advice, I expect the Yankees to be late players.

Baltimore has been frugal with its cash since Andy MacPhail took helm, however one expensive investment that I would support would be signing Teixeira. He would bring much more value than just being on the field. His defense is extraordinary, he can hit, and he would be exactly what the Orioles need. Then again the same theory applies to the Nationals, and to the Angels, and as many other people are saying, to the Yankees as well.

The Phillies have been busy the past few days. They inked Jamie Moyer today to a two years, 16MM deal. They also signed Chan Ho Park for 2.5MM. And of course on Friday, the team inked Raul Ibanez to a three year, 31.5MM deal. Granted some money has been spent, but I’m not overly disappointed with this moves. I work with a few Phillies fans, and they disagree. I even got a few emails this weekend about people who disagree with me on Ibanez.

The whole day started out with what I read on THT. At least according to Craig Calcaterra, after the Phillies signed Park:

Reason number 137 why, even a couple of months later, it doesn’t feel like the Phillies are the World Champions

And now onto Ibanez, BTBS had the following to say about this signing:

Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a three year contract worth $30 million. This, on the other hand, is not a very good deal.

And of course, ESPN’s Keith Law doesn’t like the signing one bit, as he wrote in the header:

Signing Ibanez an absurd move by Phillies

Granted the economy has put the damper on free agency spending, however the Phillies didn’t overspend with Ibanez here, not with players like Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu expecting to make 16MM a year. They figure to save about 5MM in 2009, the figure they would have paid Burrell if he had accepted arbitration. Of course, I’ve been saying all along that the Phillies should have at least offered him arbitration. Burrell was a Type A, and if he would have left, the team would have gotten two draft picks next year. Law agrees with that point, and even brings up the following:

The goal should be to give the scouting department more picks, not fewer, unless the move makes the big league club better, which the Burrell-for-Ibanez tradeoff does not.

The main problem with this signing is that the Phillies have to surrender their first round draft pick to the Mariners. However they’re picking at the end of the draft’s first round, so the Phillies front office wasn’t expecting to land a David Price. Still in the end there are worse ways for the team to be spending their money, and some other bloggers actually like the signing. Philly fans have nothing to complain about here; after all they’re surrendering their draft pick to a team which shelled out 48MM to a “ball and chain” named Carlos Silva last year.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

Update (Mon 12-15): This still didn’t happen, and I jumped the gun on the ESPN report. The two teams are still haggling over how much Milwaukee should chip in, though Cameron at 10MM is by no means being over-paid. Bill Hall and Kei Igawa are also rumored to be in the trade.

According to ESPN, the Yankees acquired center fielder Mike Cameron from the Brewers for Melky Cabrera. This move will save the Brewers 10MM, who picked up Cameron’s 2009 option earlier in the off-season.

Simply put, I love this move on the Yankees’ behalf. Given Cameron’s defense and his power, he’s worth well-more than his salary. Cabrera could blossom in Milwaukee, and that could possibly occur. They have him under team control for four more years.

With C.C. Sabathia gone, apparently Doug Melvin has no qualms about trading friends of the former pitcher. Next on the list I expect to move is Bill Hall, guaranteed 16MM over the next two years.

Cameron hit .243 with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs in 120 games with the Brewers in 2008.

Obviously I’m not sleeping either… I touched on this earlier, but the Mets officially acquired J.J. Putz from the Mariners as part of a three team deal. They signed free agent Francisco Rodriguez a day earlier for 37MM over three years. Per Rosenthal:

Under terms of the deal, the Mets get Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and reliever Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners receive reliever Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez, first baseman Mike Carp, and minor leaguers Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas and Ezequiel Carrera from the Mets. They also get Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and minor leaguers. The Indians get reliever Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from Seattle.

I wonder if this counts as Jack Zduriencik’s first trade, but in either case I like it for the Mariners. I’ll wait for more info on the prospects (BA does a good roundup of this), but I’ve always been fond of Gutierrez. The Mariners also get a slew of pieces in this deal which can be plugged anywhere. From the Mets’ prospective, this deal plays out good for them as well. The last two innings are going to be solid for them next season, and they can still bridge the gap by picking up another arm on the market (e.g. Juan Cruz.) I’ve always been fond of Reed as well, and I think last year he finally started to live up to the high prospect tag that he had years ago. The Indians most-likely made this move to shed some salary, though Gutierrez isn’t arbitration eligible yet. They also get solid bullpen depth with Smith, who should be setting up for Kerry Wood (about to sign a two year, 20MM deal.)

In either case, a solid move on all fronts. Give Zduriencik some credit for selling high on Putz, especially with the market for closers being as saturated as it is.

Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves last season. (Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

So much stuff happened today, and I’ll briefly touch on all of it. This is so far a very-exciting week at the Bellagio.

• The morning opened with a big bang: the Yankees got C.C. Sabathia under wraps for a whopping 161MM over seven years. Judging by the fact that Sabathia threw over 500 innings the last two years, I wonder when he’ll break down…
• Speaking of other big contracts, the Orioles offered Mark Teixeira a seven year deal, while the Nationals one-upped this with an eight year offer of their own (averaging 22.5MM a year.) As an O’s fan I’m excited, especially since Andy MacPhail is ready to increase this offer and be competitive for Tex’s services.
• More on the Orioles, they agreed to a two year, 6MM deal with shortstop Cesar Izturis. I like this move, since Izturis brings affordable speed and defense.
• The Orioles also need a catcher now with Ramon Hernandez being traded. They’ve kicked tires on Michael Barrett and Greg Zaun, however cannot now acquire Pirates’ backup Ronny Paulino, who was acquired this evening by the Phillies.
• The Orioles, after giving up on Jon Garland, are now interested in starting pitcher Braden Looper. Looper was a Type B who was not offered arbitration by his club, and the Cardinals will not receive draft compensation after he leaves.
• The Tigers swapped Matt Joyce for the Rays’ Edwin Jackson. This trade will help both clubs in my opinion.
• The Mets are also expected to get more relief help, and are deep in a three-way trade talk for Mariners’ closer J.J. Putz.
• The Cubs are now starting to take a firmer stance in the Jake Peavy trade talks, knowing that they’re the only party that’s interested in the Padres ace.
• The Yankees have extended their offer to A.J. Burnett for five years, at approximately 17MM per. Derek Lowe could potentially follow as well.
• Baseball America has a list of players available for all thirty teams for the big end of week Rule V draft.
• Four internet writers were introduced into the Baseball Writers Association of America. Congrats to all four, they’re all outstanding writers.
• Scott Boras gave the keynote address this afternoon.
• The Royals brought back Horacio Ramirez. He should provide bullpen depth given the fact that Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez were dealt earlier in November.
• Aubrey Huff broke David Ortiz’s six year streak of being the top DH in the American League.
• And lastly, things would get back for the Brewers if the Yankees also sign Ben Sheets. He was also a Type A and also rejected the team’s arbitration offer. The Yankees can’t give the Brewers two first-round compensation picks.

According to Joel Sherman in the New York Post, free agent pitcher C.C. Sabathia agrees in principle to a six year, 140MM deal with the New York Yankees.

The model to remember here folks: money always talk, unless you’re of course Craig Calcaterra.

And now a little humor for this evening… there was a bogus rumor which surfaced in the Seattle Times, which a reporter flew a rumor by a Cubs official. That is another bad contract swap… Carlos Silva for “Kosume (sic) Fukodome” as he put it. The officials quickly dismissed this (naturally), however like so many bad rumors today this one swiftly got some exposure. Me? I could see Kosuke Fukodome prosper in Seattle. He looks like he’s in dire need of a change of scenery, especially given how all it took was one prolonged slump which quickly got him in Lou Pinella’s “dog house” (which contains other players like Felix Pie, et al.)

A no-pressure environment like Seattle might be good for him, but I don’t think that the Cubs would want Silva, a pitcher who lost 15 games in 2008. The Mariners paid him 3MM per win last year, and given the Cubs stacked rotation, he would sure look stick out like a sore thumb (especially if they acquire Jake Peavy.) I’m not sure where this rumor was made up. Personally I think the reporter fabricated everything, in hope something sticks. I don’t blame him. When your team loses 100 games, you should try everything.

Bad Product Endorsement

In honor of this bogus trade rumor, I “sponsored” Carlos Silva today, that is by purchasing his page on baseball-reference.com. I’m not sure if this counts as buying traffic, but heck if Silva wins 21 or so games next year, I’m going to look like a genius. After all it happened for Esteban Loaiza. And this will also only happen if a volcano goes off in Detroit, and as we all know a volcano won’t go off in Detroit.

As your sponsor, I command you not to suck in 2009.

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is best known for wanting to go year-to-year during his three arbitration years, which start in 2009. He’s also made it known that he wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. If going by today’s numbers, the highest total years for a closer went to B.J. Ryan (five years.) Total compensation? Both Ryan and Joe Nathan received 47MM in their deals. Highest average salary? That’s held by Mariano Rivera, who makes on average of 15MM per year on his contract signed before last season.

Papelbon presumably wants to exceed the numbers given above on all fronts, however the one thing to note: the demand for closers fell from last summer just as sharply as the demand for oil did. Tell this to Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels free agent closer who saved 62 games last year. He wanted 75MM over five years, and he’ll now get 37MM over three from the Mets. That’s less than the 37.5MM that Brad Lidge got from the Phillies earlier this year.

Kerry Wood is also expected to sign a modest deal with the Indians as well, only for two years. So it’s clear that the market is down for closers now, and if you were Jonathan Papelbon, what would you do? If Theo Epstein came to you with a four year deal for 28MM, would you accept? Keep in mind a four year deal would buy out his three arbitration years…

Update: Per Roch, the two prospects are “Brandon Waring, a 22-year-old third baseman, and Justin Turner, a 24-year-old second baseman.”

This was mentioned yesterday, and is all but certain to now happen. The Reds are to acquire Orioles backstop Ramon Hernandez and 1MM in cash for Ryan Freel and two “mid-level prospects.” Originally I wasn’t too happy about Baltimore chipping in the extra money (due to the clear talent difference between Hernandez and Freel), but again, he gets to more prospects. These will most-likely be announced after the deal is ratified by the Office of the Commissioner (since there’s cash being moved in this transaction.)

As an O’s fan, I like this move. Freel is a fourth outfielder and will be paid 4MM in 2009, but one thing good about him is the fact that he gets on base. He also plays exceptional defense. Once again Andy MacPhail is able to maximize his return on another trade. Hernandez is due 8MM in 2009, and has a 8.5MM club option in 2010, with a 1MM buyout.

With this stated, the Orioles need a catcher to bridge the gap to super-prospect Matt Wieters is ready. I’m pretty sure that he’ll open the season in Triple-A Norfolk next year, and have his call up around May 31st. There’s not any reason as to do this, other than to push back his service time by a year. He’ll be a Super Two most likely (that is have a fourth year of arbitration), however he’ll be under team control for another year. This is what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun, and the Reds did with Jay Bruce. On an aside, the Orioles are all but certain to be moving on from Jon Garland, who is demanding 13MM a year. Good luck with that Jon.

Ramon hit .257/.308/.406 last year with 15 HR (Baltimore Sun photo by Gene Sweeney Jr. / April 3, 2006.)

Wow, the Winter Meetings have been exciting. A brief note about me: I work full time as an engineer, and dump posts into this blog whenever I get a chance throughout the day. There has been so much to comment on lately as well. One story that got my attention was this supposed rumor for Zack Greinke for Jeff Francouer. This news got the ire of the entire baseball world this morning. Hopefully Dayton Moore got the memo:

A trade that should never be mentioned again…

I know that some of the things that are uttered in the Bellagio shouldn’t be taken with a dime of salt, still with BP is talking about this it’s still something to mention. Moore has been rumored to be smitten over Francouer, presumably during his days as a Braves scout (long before he was the Royals GM.) However coughing up a (saber-) ace for a player banished to the minors, doesn’t get on base, and foolishly turned down a long-term deal from Atlanta management… Granted I know that Greinke is going to be getting expensive soon, however any trades that start with him and the Braves need to be centered around Tommy Hanson.

Moore thankfully shot this thing down today.

I’ve seen a few interesting items today that I should pass along:

…

I wanted to give props today to the excellent Hot Stove coverage of the Winter Meetings going on at MLB Trade Rumors. Tim Dierkes is clearly burning the midnight oil (I’ve seen him on Google Chat at 3AM one day this week, and there were a few 4AM posting as well.) His coverage on the event is in my opinion the best and most comprehensive I’ve ever seen (RotoWorld gets second place here.) On average his site usually has around 75 fresh posts a week (according to Ball Hype.) He hit close to that yesterday alone. That dedication alone deserves my respect, since everyone deep down is a rumor addict.

…

Readers of ShysterBall know that Craig Calcaterra recently moved his blog over to The Hardball Times two weeks ago. However he revealed this interesting tidbit this morning on the THT daily update:

…as soon as I made it known I was going to move my blog, The Sporting News offered me an insane amount of money. … Then I ran into Studeman in a Vegas hotel and told him that I’d really like to come to the Hardball Times, and the rest is history

Wow, I know many writers are mad at him (e.g. the “Bloggers Union"), but I’m proud that he put his own interests over money. What I would have done in the same situation is a little different… I’d take the Sporting News offer to ESPN and use that as a ploy.

…

Lastly just like everyone else, MLB.com is laying off about 5% of its staff (they have 450 employees give or take.) I’ve seen a few front offices cut about 10% of their staff, and the recession is impacting baseball everywhere.

According to Josh Towers in the Union Tribune, a three-way trade framework is in place. At a minimum, the Cubs will get Jake Peavy, the Padres get Garrett Olsen, and the Orioles will get Felix Pie. All three teams are clearly happy, and this trade is just pending approval on the Cubs’ side (keep in mind an impending team sale.) I forget what I read, but apparently Kevin Towers wants this either done by Thursday, or Peavy will open 2009 as a Padre.

Regardless, I’ve expressed my interest in Pie before, and I think Olsen is a fair price for the gamble on his talents.

Update (Tues 2:42 PM): According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, the 17.1MM deal for Blake will be announced Thursday. Also, the team inked free agent Mark Loretta to a 1.25MM deal last night (not a bad signing at all.)

I’m reading RotoWorld now, and apparently Casey Blake is about to sign a three-year deal with the Dodgers. BTBS is also discussing this now. The Indians apparently were interested, as were the Twins. The main reason here is that the Dodgers went the extra mile and gave Blake that third guaranteed year. RotoWorld isn’t too optimistic about the deal:

This looks like another awful multiyear deal handed out by Ned Colletti, but we suppose one of them will have to work out eventually.

I’m not sure if I agree with this. Blake’s not going to handcuff the team with a contract in terms of both term and compensation. There have been far worse deals given out the past two years, and Blake does offer a sense of consistency, though he essentially has little value over the replacement player (if any.) At 17MM, it’s not that bad of a contract (the average value is less than the 6.2MM that Blake got in 2008.) They would have got compensation if Blake signed elsewhere since he was a Type B and was offered arbitration, but he cost the team the young catching prospect Carlos Santana last July.

This signing isn’t overly surprising. Heck, I even predicted that Blake would get a three year with the Dodgers deal back in August. Then again I guessed 25MM, and that was before the whole “worst economic times since the Great Depression” rhetoric kicked in. Still this deal in the end will only hurt the third baseman market, which includes both free agency (Joe Crede) and trades (Garrett Atkins.)

“Day One” of the Winter Meetings is here, and part of me wishes that I was in the Bellagio with the rest of the reporters and front office personnel. As to what goes on at the meetings, I’m not sure. Still I’m sure that GMs try to slip Scott Boras a roofie or two. The last thing he would want is to wake up and realize that one of his players was signed below market-value. Maybe this could be a ploy that Andy MacPhail could use… I would love to see Mark Teixeira in Baltimore in 2009; 15MM a year would be even better.

The Trade That Did Happen Yesterday

Everyone expected Jermaine Dye to be a Red last night, however team officials on both clubs quickly dismissed that rumor. One trade that did happen last night was with the Tigers, who got an above-average backstop in Gerald Laird. His defense is solid, and he also has a solid bat too, though without solid power. He’s under team control for two more years, and being a Boras client, he should cost around 4MM a year during this span.

I like this move on the Tigers’ behalf, and I also like it on the Rangers’ as well (Baseball America discusses the two arms dealt.) Jon Daniels is presumably under orders to cut salary, and Laird is a logical fit to go, given the team’s current catching logjam. It’s not a bad return by any means, and many are speculating that Moscoso could be the next Jair Jurjens, which going by last season’s results isn’t a bad thing.

Daniels still has too many corner-outfield, 1B, DH types remaining now as well, given David Murphy, Chris Davis, and even Max Ramirez could all offer the same flexibility. Milton Bradley’s departure opens up a slot for one of them, and I could still see Daniels dealing Hank Blalock to someone. Again, at 6.2MM he’s likely to move, and the Giants have been rumored to be interested. He’d be a great pickup if they grabbed him, and he shouldn’t cost them a Jonathan Sanchez (as many Rangers fans are hoping.)

On an aside, I wonder where Brandon Inge sits in the team’s 2009 plans…

Shortstop Plethora

The other piece of the Giants’ left-side of the infield features newly-signed Edgar Renteria, inked to a 18.5MM deal over two years. The dollar amount surprises me, but I don’t think it’s a bad move that’ll hurt them for years to come (think Barry Zito.) And I think he’ll revert back to his NL-friendly numbers. Still with that all said, there are way too many shortstops on the market today. The other name that’s been rumored to be traded is Jack Wilson, and the asking price that’s on him from the Pirates is high.

I’m not sure why any team would cough up two plus prospects for (potentially) two years of expensive baseball of Wilson. Grated his glove is good, but then again there are other options who deliver the same defensive talents that he does, notably Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Cesar Izturis.

Update: Everett signed with the Tigers today for 1MM.

…

Rafeal Furcal turned down a four year/36MM offer from the A’s, and many are expecting him to now resign with the Dodgers. His agent Paul Kinzer is seeking 52MM over the same term, and the injury he had last year prevented him from receiving any classification from Elias (the Dodgers won’t receive any compensation if he leaves.) Personally I’d rather see Baltimore sign him for 10MM a year than spend 20MM a year on Tex. His four years in Los Angeles were very good. He was the front-runner for the MVP last season, before the back injury came into play. He’s not as fragile as many writers make it seem… Still ESPN and Jayson Stark believe that he’ll sign his contract this week.

Some other random notes from today:

• The Phillies and Jamie Moyer are still hung up in dollar discussions. He was very solid in 2008, and I see no reason why he should receive a pay cut from his 8.5MM he clearly earned last year (in comparison, consider what Carlos Silva did last year.) The team might regret not offering the Type A free agent arbitration.
• The Mariners obtained another 1B/OF/DH in Chris Shelton, Jack Zduriencik’s second move.

• MASN’s Roch Kubatko is under the impression that Ramon Hernandez is to be moved this week, as part of a salary swap. Apparently a framework for a deal is already in place, as he writes:

  In return, the Orioles would get a utility-type player who could move from the infield to the outfield.

  He mentions the Reds as being the suitor here, and Tim Dierkes of MLBTR speculates that Ryan Freel is the most-likely candidate (that was my guess too.) I wouldn’t mind Freel personally. Tossing out the two DUIs, he at least gets on base often and plays plus defense. That alone probably caught MacPhail’s eye. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun also chimes in here on this rumor.

• More on Roch, teams are apparently asking about Daniel Cabrera. He also speculates that the O’s could non-tender Cabrera… speaking of non-tenders there has been a rumor out about the Mariners non-tendering Erik Bedard, but Roch is getting the impression that they’ll offer him a contract for 2009. People were speculating a possible return of him to Baltimore, with news of Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie hanging out in Las Vegas this week (the Adam Jones trade would only look more lopsided if this happened.)

Update (10:28 PM): this was supposedly shot down by White Sox officials.

I saw this on RotoWorld tonight, as well as a few other sites. Long story short, apparently Cincinnati traded Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye. Dye will be a free agent after next season, and Bailey is under team control for a good five years with the White Sox.

I’m not sure why the Reds would do this. Granted Dye brings pop, but Bailey is a stud in need of a new environment. Then again this is one of the moves that Kenny Williams makes that nobody knows about. First he got Gavin Floyd, then John Danks. I’m starting to see how the White Sox build their rotations… yes this is a steal on the White Sox’ behalf. Bailey is someone you build a rotation around.

Here’s another link backing this claim. BTBS also contributes here. One more link. This trade is apparently a done deal. Expect this trade to happen early this week, during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

Dye averaged about 33 HR in four seasons with the White Sox (CNN SI.)

I’m sitting here… kinda drunk. Winter meetings are around the corner, and I’m excited. I really expect that Jake Peavy will be traded within the weeks, and I really think that Baltimore will be involved, and I really think that they’ll give up Garrett Olsen.

Any ways I’m obviously drunk now, and am clearly excited about this week. Will Baltimore trade Ramon Hernandez to the Reds as part of a salary dump? Will Andy MacPhail move Brian Roberts for a good set of prospects? Will the team make a move for Mark Teixeira?

That’s what I’d like to see happen this week. I want to see Felix Pie being part of the 40 man roster. I want to see some salary dumped, and some prospects brought in (Hernandez and his 15 HR from last year don’t necessarily count as a salary dump.) And I’m curious to see what happens during next weeks’ Rule V draft… yes, that will be the biggest drinking night of the year for me. That and a good shortstop with an OPS over .575… yeah that would be hot.

Here’s a shocker: the Cardinals acquired Padres shortstop Khalil Greene for a pair of “relief prospects". There was speculation that he was going to be traded before next week’s Winter meetings, and with Kevin Towers under orders to cut payroll, Greene and his 6.5MM was a logical choice to go. Until we know more about the prospects, it’s hard to rate this trade. Still give credit to the Cardinals for being there on the end of the salary dump. On an aside, I’m glad that the Orioles didn’t cough up Garrett Olsen for Greene.

After hitting 27 HR in 2007, Greene dropped down to 10 in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

Boston inked AL-MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia to a six year extension today, worth 40.5MM in total (actually it’s 42MM including the signing bonus.) This contract covers his three arbitration years, plus two more years of free agency. I know people in Boston are referring to this as a “bargain", but I wouldn’t go that far. This is the fourth highest contract ever given to a pre-arbitration eligible player, following Hanley Ramirez (6/70MM), David Wright (6/55MM) and Ryan Braun (7/45MM, or 51MM if he’s “super two” next year.) Still, Boston would save 10MM extra now, since they don’t have to go year-to-year during his arbitration years.

Still I know that the economy was clearly a factor here. Pedroia originally expressed his intention to go year-to-year, as did Kevin Youkilis, Jonothan Papelbon, Russell Martin and NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. When this news came out, I expected more of these players to suddenly have a change of heart. Within minutes of this signing, a piece broke on MLBTR about how Lincecum wouldn’t mind an extension (he sees a breakdown in the future apparently.)

Breaking down the Pedroia contract, we see that he only receives 16MM during his three arbitraiton years, including a paltry 3.5MM in his first season. The breakdown is as follows:

• 2009: $3MM (with signing bonus)
• 2010: $3.5MM
• 2011: $5.5MM
• 2012: $8MM
• 2013: $10MM
• 2014: $10MM
• 2015: $11MM (team option)
• Total: $42MM, $53MM with option

So with this all being officially done, I honestly expect Nick Markakis to change his mind as well and get the extension done. This signing only hurt him, especially since many were expecting that he’d grab 5MM alone in 2009, his first season of salary arbitration. My guess to the Markakis contract, 6 years/51.5MM does the trick (three free agency years.) That’s what Daisuke Matsuzaka got when coming over two years ago as well.

In either case, Boston made out well. If MLB player valuation remains constant or increases over the term of Pedroia’s contract, then I would declare this move a “steal” for the Red Sox. Still like everything else, including this offseason, to paraphrase James Carville, it’s clearly the economy, stupid.

Update: The third player might be catching prospect Tyler Flowers, according to Rosenthal. And he mentions that Reyes is not in the trade. We’ll see how this breaks out, but this all but certain ends the Braves’ interest in Jake Peavy.

Here’s the story on ESPN, which just broke minutes ago. It’s a five-player trade:

• White Sox get: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge, “another top prospect”
• Braves get: Vazquez, Boone Logan

I’m not sure what ESPN means by “another top prospect", but I’m all but certain that it’s not Tommy Hanson, who will most likely be in the Braves’ rotation in 2009. You could possibly throw out Jason Heyward as well. Granted assuming the White Sox don’t receive one of those two players, I give the edge to the Braves here. Vazquez doesn’t let hitters make contact with him (about 9 K/9), and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA goes down by a run in the National League. Logan will go right into Bobby Cox’s bullpen.

White Sox GM Ken Williams does have a knack for observing talent, and Reyes and Lillibridge had to have caught his eye. Lillibridge will add more depth to the middle infield, and should mitigate the blow of Orlando Cabrera leaving. And I personally think that Reyes can be a strong starter, especially with the White Sox now having him under team control until 2013.

News item from yesterday: the Astros made the third free agent signing of the winter, inking pitcher Mike Hampton to a 2MM one-year deal (with 2MM more of possible incentives.) I don’t dislike the move, and was reading a great piece on BTBS today about how the Astros could have better spent their money, especially since they’re supposedly cash-strapped. They recommended that they put 800K into Claudio Vargas, who would basically generate the same results (with a healthier track record.)

The big shocker yesterday was why the Astros declined arbitration to Randy Wolf. Granted he only made 8.5MM last year, but his results in Houston were solid. Were they afraid of him accepting their offer and then going to arbitration with them next February? The smallest paycut he could have took was a 7MM salary for 2009, and I highly doubt that the interest for him would be so good that he’d get a multi-year offer from another team. That’s the same reasoning with Ben Sheets, who was offered arbitration by the Brewers. The Brewers aren’t as bad off financially as the Astros are, and would love to have Sheets back on a one year deal (the same obviously goes with C.C. Sabathia.)

In regards to all the players that were offered arbitration yesterday, BA has a great piece up running through all thirty teams. All in all, 24 players were offered arbitration this year, up from 17 the year before. However in regards to whether the decisions should have been made, the economy clearly played a hand here.

We’re officially in a recession, and if there’s anything good about it, it’s that it’ll drive down the inflated salaries of some particular players. Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite were slated to pull in 18MM next year if the Yankees offered (he’s a Type A), and same thing goes with Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, who could have each made 15MM in 2009. Each should now have salaries in the 8MM to 10MM range next year, due to low demand for their services. Abreu and Pettite were due for pay cuts anyways, especially since the Angels declined Garrett Anderson’s 11.5MM option for 2009 (a very-similar player.)

What also came out of yesterday was the decline in closer demand. Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman weren’t offered arbitration, and would be much safer choices for teams looking at ninth inning help (since draft picks won’t have to be surrendered next June in the Amateur Draft.) Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Brandon Lyon were all offered arbitration yesterday, and this news only hurt their values. If anything I now see Rodriguez getting a deal similar to what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year.

Don’t get me wrong, the upper-echilon of talent will be rewarded this year, that is Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett, any of the Dodgers’ offerings and Raul Ibanez, who should all receive multi-year deals within the next month or two. However players like Jon Garland, Sheets, and even Fuentes and Rodriguez, I can see them accepting the arbitration offerings, simply because the demand is down this year and they can wait around for a year to see if the market turns around.

The economy really is putting a damper on this offseason. I clearly expected more spending and trades. I thought something big was going to happen on Thanksgiving as well. I guess the only thing that teams have to do now is to weather this storm. If anything, this news from yesterday only makes the trades for Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn look poor in retrospect.

Edgar Renteria’s value shot up yesterday. (Reuters Pictures)