Late Innings

Any one in Kansas City who grabbed the Kansas City Star this morning was able to read Joe Posnanski’s latest piece. Going by my count, I think it’s his tenth post discussing Mike Jacobs. Any ways this is my fifth I think, and for a minor trade like this five is way too much.

He brought up the fact that reporters were asking Dayton Moore about why they made this trade. Any ways let’s quickly surmise the problem here: there’s a supposition going around that Moore is trying to dismantle the deep talent that he has in his system and is trying to bring in players who can’t on base. They got Jacobs, they were after Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Franklin Gutierrez. Posnanski even showed what the lineup would look like for them if they brought in those players. His projection has the team getting on base roughly 30% of the time.

The Jacobs trade from two weeks ago was not a blockbuster. The Marlins were simply trying to move him, and were willing to take “whatever they could get.” In all fairness, I can’t remember a trade where the team that dealt its slugging first baseman for a middle reliever was seen as the better team. If the Braves were to have traded Mark Teixeira for Justin Speier last July (a similar trade), there would be an uproar in Atlanta (Frank Wren would have been pushed out like he was in Baltimore.) With that statement, I’m honestly surprised that the Marlins didn’t get more for Jacobs.

I’ve been saying this since the trade broke, that if Jacobs got on base more consistently he’d be deadly. If he wound up with an OBP of .350 in 2009, the Royals would have clearly ripped off the Marlins. Moore feels the same way, that is coaches can teach the hitter to be more patient at the plate. They clearly have a great coaching staff, given how much major-league ready talent they have. Posnasnki disagrees; he feels that getting on base is a “talent":

One of the great traps in sports is believing you are smart enough to change somebody. Coaches can help smooth out rough edges, maybe. But getting on base is a TALENT, and you can only improve that so much. It’s fool’s gold to believe anything else.

In either case, this trade is NOT a bad thing for the Royals, as I’ve been saying all along. Having Jacobs on the roster allows for the Royals go give more competition to its younger players. You have to make Kila Ka’aihue earn the first base job, not just hand it to him during the winter. Ask the Yankees how this worked last winter with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy…

So with that all said, I’m projecting the following from Jacobs in 2009: .265/.335/.515, 30 HR, 115 RBI. I think the Royals in 2009 are going to be this year’s Rays. And when the team plays well, the rest of the players play well also, and it’s reflected in their statistics. Seriously, the Royals could win 87 games in 2009. And given the fact that they play in a weak division, that could take them into October next year.