Late Innings

Before Thanksgiving, we heard rumors about a Third Team being involved with the Cubs and Padres in a blockbuster trade for Padres’ ace Jake Peavy. That mysterious team, at least according to Steve Gilbert of mlb.com, is the Orioles. I’ve been saying for some time now that if the Padres were to trade their ace, they’d want back MLB-ready pitching. The Cubs have some, but it’s not exactly what the Padres are expecting. Rich Hill’s stock has fallen dramatically, Sean Marshall doesn’t fit their bill, and of course there’s Jason Marquis, who has 9MM owed to him in the final year of his three-year contract signed two years ago.

The Padres have been coveting Oriole’s hurler Garrett Olsen, a soft-tosser who might be best moving to the weaker National League. He’s dominated at the minor league level, however is far too inconsistent in the majors. Granted the Orioles probably didn’t give him enough time to develop (likewise with John Maine), however if he alone could net you Felix Pie, then the move should be made. Andy MacPhail and the Orioles have been coveting Pie for sometime now. He was the Cubs top prospect in 2007, however likewise with many Cubs prospects of late (e.g. Don Veal), his stock as fallen. I honestly believed that he was about to be heading to Baltimore this past Spring with Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts (I read a incredibly-respectable source.) However that trade didn’t happen (and Gallagher is now a member of the A’s rotation.)

Long story short, if MacPhail pulls off this move and acquires Pie during the Winter Meetings in two weeks, I’ll be very happy. An outfield of Pie, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones could be incredible, especially with all three of them being 25 and under. Luke Scott could be part of a DH platoon, and Aubrey Huff could be the team’s first baseman. Granted I know that Baltimore would be moving some pitching for acquiring hitting, but this is a move that I would like. There are many people in Chicago who are saying that the team shouldn’t be giving up on Pie right now. Besides, given how slow the market has been going of late, the team might be able to snag a starter for cheap soon.

Cardinals’ shortstop Felipe Lopez, acquired in media res last season from the Nationals, was quite the star. Looking at the slashes he got from his new team: .385/.426/.538. Wow. So teams on the West Coast are courting Edgar Renteria, Rafeal Furcal and Orlando Cabrera, yet no one is interested in Lopez? The reason why, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick puts it:

…his .418 batting average on balls in play after the All-Star break makes some teams wonder if there wasn’t an inordinate amount of luck involved…

Unless Scott Boras can sell him as “The Ted Williams of BABIP", then he won’t be getting paid on the same level as Furcal will. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad option. He runs well and has occasional power (though he won’t hit 23 HR again like he did in 2005), however I feel as though he got lazy the last couple of years. It’s amazing what free agency can do to a player. I won’t complain if some team gives him two years of 12MM baseball.

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I had some other links today to comment on, however in the spirit of Thanksgiving I donated them to Mr. Dierkes at Trade Rumors. So that’s why I’m rather quiet tonight. That, and I’ve been drinking heavily. And yes it’s only 6PM EST… so this will be a long night.

To paraphrase loosely what Joe Biden said during the Presidential Campaign, something big will happen tomorrow, in either the MLB free agent or trade market. I really hope so too; the market has been relatively stagnant of late. Any ways Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of Late Innings! I promise many months of useless posts ahead for your reading displeasure.

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

Interesting news item from yesterday: Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley slipped on ice at his home, broke a bone in his leg and had surgery the same day to fix the infraction. He should be fine for Spring Training (some people aren’t certain), however considering the fact that I live about an hour from where Billingsley resides, I can vouch for him. The Northeast is going through a cold period right now. We had ice on Friday last week, and there were traffic wrecks a plenty, since people seemingly forget how to drive in inclement conditions after months of warm Summer weather. On an aside, this is usually the time when Al Gore gives his “global warming” localized lectures…

“Ice to see you.” Billingsley was 16-10, 3.14 last year with 201 Ks for the Dodgers. (Ann Heisenfelt/AP)

This injury only addresses the weaknesses that the Dodgers have currently in their rotation now. If the season was to open today, Billingsley would be their Opening Day starter. Hiroki Kuroda gets the #2 slot, and 20-year old phenom Clayton Kershaw is the #3 starter. After that, there aren’t other options aside from dipping down to their farm. Esteban Loaiza left to the White Sox in mid-season, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe are soon to be gone as well. Greg Maddux is to retire. Yes I understand that Ned Colletti has a large issue to take care of with this, however I hope that he has a “Plan B” ready just in case C.C. Sabathia doesn’t sign with the team.

Update: I’ve gotten an email, stating that he’s “only 19 years old", in given the team’s current options at third, I honestly see him starting at the hot corner as soon as the White Sox breaks camp in April.

When White Sox GM Ken Williams is in the news, it’s usually for something stupid that he did recently. The main reason why he’s being vilified in the news? Simple. He dealt a unique hitter who gets on base in Nick Swisher for pennies on the dime (the ten cent piece of course being Gio Gonzalez, now in Oakland.) Any ways that’s done, in the books, and of course he’ll now make some quiet moves which do not garner to draw any media attention. The main idea that’s going under the rug is the team’s signing of Cuban third-base prospect Dayan Viciedo for a major league deal for four years worth 11MM.

The Cuban “Babe Ruth” averaged 36 HR over the last four seasons. Yikes. (daylife.com)

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Vicideo is the player that Williams targeted for the offseason. He’s a tremendous third base talent who will most likely be given the third base job on Opening Day. I know that’s a bold claim to say, however Alexi Ramirez made the Opening Day roster when he was expected to be in the minors after he signed his four year deal last winter. And of course all Ramirez did was finish second in Rookie of the Year voting to some guy named Evan Longoria, slugging 21 home runs in the process.

When Williams inked Ramirez to his four year, 4.75MM contract, I honestly expected him to be in the minors for a year. However he had a stellar spring, and had me change my mind, where my expectations for him suddenly rose. Ramirez hit 28 HR the year before in Cuba, and those translated well in the American League in 2008.

So where should we project Viciedo? Well let’s start here. He’ll be the team’s opening day third baseman. Joe Crede is leaving as a free agent, and Josh Fields struck out his way into Ozzie Guillen’s dog house. I’ve personally learned to never underestimate Cuban talent, especially when Baltimore and the Cuban national team played many years ago. Viciedo is incredible talent, and many people are lauding Williams for this move. So in summary, Williams stole Carlos Quinten from the Diamondbacks (an oft-injured fourth outfielder so they thought), grabbed the “Cuban Missile” in Ramirez, and now padded his resume with Viciedo. 11MM is a bargain over four years, and I’m projecting a .305/31/105 season from him at the least. I’m not joking or going out on any limbs here. People won’t know this guy in April, yet in July will be talking about him all the time. And in the end, I’ll be right with this projection, just take my word on this one. David Price and Matt Wieters suddenly have some competition for the Rookie of the Year in 2009…

Not to dredge up the MVP voting any further, however I think that I found the lone, solitary (BWAA) writer who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez:

If this is true, his credibility just went down a great deal.

According to Wikipedia, he’s a member of BWAA (actually, as someone emailed me, it should be BBWAA, since the prior acronym is reserved for boxing. Personally I lost all respect for boxing after the “Pay Per Chew” event happened. Any ways BBWAA and BWAA are interchangeable in my eyes.) In either case, getting back to the point, I’m not sure whether Heyman voted on the MVP. However he made his threats about how K-Rod should have gotten the award (I know, he’s a soon-to-be-heavily-overpaid closer.) Any ways we’re not sure, however I want to meet this writer who thinks that K-Rod was the Most Valuable Player in the American League. Still I read this interesting piece from a Washington BWAA writer who cast his tenth place vote for Ryan Howard. That made me feel better.
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I saw a story today in the Baltimore Sun today about how the Orioles have free agent shortstop Ceasr Izturis tops on their wish list for the position. Keep in mind that there are plenty of alluring free agents out there to begin with, such as Rafeal Furcal, Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria. Bobby Crosby, Khalil Greene and J.J. Hardy can also be had for the right price if a trade was to be made.

In regards to the original point of the post, I wanted to point out the type of shortstop that Andy MacPhail targets. He values one thing from this position: defense. Any bat that the hitter can provide is seen as a “bonus” to him. That’s always been his philosophy (Minnesota fans remember a .245 glove man by the name of Greg Gagne), and he had the same approach for this season. The shortstop is the #9 hitter to him, and the power in the lineup rests in the corner positions (here’s to Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell’s development.)

MacPhail tried Luis Hernandez as the Opening Day shortstop (they grabbed him after being in the Atlanta organization all his career), then after his defense deteriorated, he also tried Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum. A late trade for Juan Castro brought in the last shortstop that Baltimore attempted to use last year. All in all, these four hitters combined for no power and a sub .600 OPS. With no minor league options available, Izturis looks like he’d be a great fit.

Personally I wouldn’t mind Renteria and Cabrera, and I even speculated that Baltimore would be a good spot for those two, however they were later classified as Type A free agents, and Baltimore would lose their second round draft pick next year (arbitration is all but certain to be offered.) Furcal is more desirable being a Type B, however Baltimore has some competition for him from Oakland, Los Angeles, San Francisco, et al. He’ll require a four year, 40MM deal to say the least.

I’m not sure what kind of offers Izturis will get. He made 2.85MM with the Cardinals, and hit .263 while playing great defense. The .628 OPS leaves reason for fear, but if Baltimore could grab him on a one or two year deal for 1.8MM a year, I’d be happy. The team still needs to build some middle infield depth however in the farm.

The Greene for Olson Swap

The same article mentions that Greene was offered to Baltimore, for soft-tosser Garrett Olson. Baltimore correctly passed. Olson would welcome a move out of the AL East, and the cavernous Petco would be friendly to him. Greene in Baltimore however doesn’t impress me. I know he’s an East Coast resident, and he does have some power (27 HR a year ago) and plays solid defense, however he doesn’t get on base. In 2007, the year he won the team MVP, he hit 27 homers, drove in 97, but only hit .254. What’s worse is that he only drew 32 walks that year, getting on base to a .291 tune. His 2008 season was much worse (.260 OBP.)

He’s due to make 6.5MM this year in the last year of a two year contract he signed a year ago (essentially buying out his arbitration years.) He’ll be a free agent after next season, and I have no idea what interest he’ll draw. Still handing over Olson (when the rotation is already weak) would be a bad move.

Over the past few days, I’ve never seen so much sludge against the BWAA on the MVP vote, not because of their first place winners, but because of other players who got votes in the later selections. I’ve seen some great essays, and then I saw this piece from Joe Posnanski this morning. He attempts to solve what goes through the minds of a BWAA writer who unfortunately has to choose (to many single, living-in-parents’-home bloggers’ disgust) which players will receive MVP votes. Here’s the crux of the argument:

…the only logical and common-sense way to measure the 2008 baseball achievements of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, is to look at:

1. The number of RBIs they drove in.
2. The finish of their teams.

Anyone who read this blog last night saw the following from yours truly:

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

When I saw this, my jaw was agape. I couldn’t believe it. I jumped out of my cubicle this morning and screamed! Actually I didn’t do that, however I know at times I think I’m clairvoyant, but I never thought my mind was on the same page as Posnanski’s, especially when it comes to something as *serious* as the MVP voting. Posnanski then addressed the same points I made last night, that is involving VORP into the voting, stating that Pujols’ season was many, many, …, many times better than Howard’s was, mentioning that Howard had many more opportunities with runners on base before him, and essentially how most people who work in the BWAA and were given the chance to vote should be unemployed right now. Actually I don’t think he said the last point, however anyone who cast a first place vote Howard should be working for McDonalds right now, and anyone who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez should be, um, there was only one writer.

It’s not like I call Posnanski each night and talk smack with him, but his essay really inflated my ego this morning. The only thing the two of us disagree on is the ordering of the two ‘li’ children in the above ordered list (it’s HTML talk.) Posnanski weights RBI higher, I weight postseason presence. So let’s look at what happened the first two days this week. The AL? In the end it came down to two players, Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer. Mauer had more RBI (84) last year than Pedroia did (83), however Dustin was playing in the ALCS last October, Joe was not (check point me.) In other words, this allowed Pedroia to get the most first-place votes, and Mauer to get the most second-place votes (though he finished fourth overall.) And anyone who cast the first place vote for Howard (there were twelve of you!, shame shame shame)… Pujols’ statistical season last year was just as monstrous as Alex Rodriguez’s was in 2007, and he overwhelmingly won the MVP that season.

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Any ways I could use that little Posnanski endorsement (if you want to call it that) to plug a main reason why you should read this blog. Most of the stuff I write turns out true many months later (just search for my “10 hitters to watch")… I also did some improvement on this thing, and paid respect for the great season that Tampa Bay had, by adding Don Zimmer to my montage logo. And I also fought the enormous urge to put ads on this site… so there are your reasons. This is one person writing the content, and unlike Sandra Bernhard’s material, the content is original (and albeit humorous.)

You Won’t Have Joe Morgan To Kick Around

The main reason why I’m keeping this site “ad free” is because one of the most humorous sports blogs FJM did the same thing themselves. And In case anyone noticed, Ken Tremendous and the gang hung up their keyboards at FJM (I think they have lives, wives and girlfriends, something I kinda lack.) Actually I saw this last week, and within 30 minutes, there was a post up on Shyster Ball explaining this. I give Mr. Calcaterra some credit, since he did his best FJM impression the other day. I’m planning on doing the same thing soon as well, I just need an idiotic story to trash. I’ll start scouring philly.com or boston.com more, or if something about David Eckstein comes my way… anyways now onto some baseball related stuff.

The Moose is Loose

Breaking: Mike Mussina officially hung it up, after (finally) notching his first 20 win season last year. My prediction to this, he’ll be like Brett Favre and will want to come back. The team that will take him? Baltimore. I think Peter Angelos is offering 140MM over six years… Any ways the last playoff game Baltimore had recently (ten years ago) was pitched by him, and I was there. There were a lot of people pissed off at Armando Benitez that night (I remember the expletives being shouted walking down from the upper deck.)

Sickels on the East Coast

John Sickels has his Top 20 prospects up now for the Orioles up by the way, and as a fan I couldn’t be any happier. He gave an “A” to Matt Wieters, and “B+"es to their upcoming “big three", that is Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Say hello to your “mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza” (Baltimore Sun Photo by Karl Merton Ferron)

It’s not a bad system, at least in comparison to the thinned-out Diamondbacks system (should be replenished after the compensation comes during next year’s draft) and the Washington Nationals, whom he is currently going over now. It’s not pretty, or as he so eloquently put it:

Yuck!

What’s Going on in Kansas City

There was another big trade that went down today in Kansas City. Even though I’ll wait for Posnanski to write about it this weekend in his Kansas City Star piece, I’ll briefly touch it here. The Royals came into the off-season with a surplus of middle relievers. They dealt Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs a few weeks ago, and now just dealt Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp.

The team isn’t hurting for middle relief, since they still have Ron Mahay, Horacio Ramirez, … and they have some dude named “Joakim.” Still the team now has a glut of outfielders, and I think now’s the time for them to deal Mark Teahen. I like David DeJesus though, but if he can fetch a Felix Pie, you got to pull the trigger. Still, looking at right now, Crisp suddenly gets everyday at bats, 625 plate appearances next year (as Roto Professor put it, Crisp screams “must start".) Last year he was hurt, and he was platooning, however he was still solid. I doubt he’ll slug .460 again like he did in 2006, but he moves fast and plays stellar center field. At 5.5MM he’s a steal, and most importantly, Mr. Crisp gets on base. He, much to Royals’ fans like, clipped at a very solid .340 OBP. Suddenly Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon are smiling…

The Red Sox had to move him, and they got good return in Ramirez. They can do cheaper for a fourth outfielder, whom they’ll need for Jacoby Ellsbury/J.D. Drew injury insurance. Still looking at Crisp, you can’t all but not love this move. And if the Royals give him his 650 plate appearances this year and next (they’ll need to exercise a 8MM option), they’ll (likely) have a Type A free agent in 2010, who could net a pair of draft picks in the 2011 draft. Contrary to what many people are saying, I like what the Royals are doing (wait until Gordon breaks out…) And dare I say this, but I don’t think 85 wins are out of the question. After all the exact same thing worked out well for Tampa Bay last year.

The Cubs have had a busy off-season so far. They have been speculated to be in the hunt for Randy Johnson (a good move if they pull that off), rumored to be trading for Mark Teahen (muy malo if they give up Felix Pie), and have been all over the place with pitching. On that note, this afternoon, they resigned one of their integral parts from the 2008 season, Ryan Dempster. He’ll get 52MM over four years.

Any ways I don’t despise this move, but it isn’t that bad. Simply put, the Cubs paid market price for Dempster. He won 17 games last year and had a very nice 2.96 ERA. Still there is growing disgust over this move. Roto Professor sums up the reactions best:

Maybe I’ll be proved wrong, but it’s an awful lot of money to be throwing at someone off one good season.

I agree with the sentiment. People thought he wasn’t even going to be in the rotation in 2008, however he was the #5 starter out of the gate. He pitched like an ace the rest of the way. Granted many people refer to this season as a “fluke", however he just didn’t get many opportunities. Dempster was always a solid starter with the Marlins, and I look at this season as him getting himself “back on track". He may win 60 games over the next four years, he may save 100 games. We don’t know…

Still consider this. The Cubs shelled out 10MM a year for Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. These moves clearly worked. They shelled out 12MM a year for Kosuke Fukodome, and that didn’t work. I know it’s an irrelevant analogy, but when the Cubs pay for pitching, it usually works out well for them. And it should be noted that Dempster, only being 32 right now, will be pitching in his prime throughout the duration of the contract.

Update: I wasn’t the only one who thought that Mauer should have won the award… ESPN’s Rob Neyer also agrees. Still Pedroia is NOT a bad choice by any means.

As of now, the MVPs were officially determined by the BWAA. Dustin Pedroia took the American League honors, while Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols took home the National League award. Personally, the BWAA got these correct, as they did with the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards. It’s what happened further down the list that makes me scratch my head.

Honestly I’ve been back and forth on the AL choice for some time now. I’ve thought about each of the top four players winning the award, especially Joe Mauer in particular. Pedroia is a fine choice, and had an all-around solid 2008 campaign. Still given the fact that the race was as up-in-the-air as it was, I expected this to be much closer. Mauer got the most second-place votes, but Pedroia won the award handsomely. If anything, the race should’t have been as close in the National League as it was between Pujols and Ryan Howard.

The AL MVP hit .326/17/83 with 20 steals in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

Basing the MVP award on the first choice is entirely unfair, since that immediately disqualifies 73% of players who go back home in October. However these two points were clearly relevant in this year’s voting, and it was more obvious in the National League. Going by pure statistics, Pujols destroyed Howard in 2008 (think “the slashes.") However since Howard was part of a much more potent offense, he had more chances to drive in runs than Pujols. And Howard’s team also made the postseason as well by the way.

The NL MVP hit .357/37/116 with an OPS of 1.114 (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, file)

I know Pujols made comments back in 2006 about how he should have won the award instead of Howard since his team made the playoffs (ironic how we have the exact opposite case here), but Howard was clearly MVP-worthy in 2006. There are a handful of players in the National League who were more valuable than him in 2008 however.

Some of the writers who cast ballots the past few days have had me scratching my head. Some things I don’t get:

• Why did Cliff Lee win the Cy Young yet finish behind Francisco Rodriguez in the MVP voting?
• Which writer actually gave K-Rod a first place vote in the first place? (Seriously???)
• Why did Carlos Delgado finish in the top ten in NL voting, yet a more-valuable Carlos to the Mets (that is Mr. Beltran) only receives ten points?
• How come Hanley Ramirez failed to crack the top ten?
• How come Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia (finishing fourth and sixth respectively) got as much consideration as they did when they were mostly mediocre for their previous clubs before being traded?
• Why was Edison Volquez considered for the Rookie of the Year voting, when he clearly wasn’t a rookie? (Actually BP hit this hard over the weekend.)

I know new age statistics aren’t popular with the classical BWAA voters who casually follow the sport, however one statistic that’s clearly applicable is VORP, or “Value over Replacement Player". In other words, this is the “V part” of MVP.

With that said, my logic for calculating the MVP is relatively simple. Pick a player, then remove him from the team. The player whose team regressed the most after this happened is the MVP. It’s not too hard (though you could accomplish this by using the following algorithm for calculating VORP.) I mean, if you removed Pujols from the middle of the order in St. Louis, would the team have even been in contention in September, especially given their injury-riddled pitching staff? Probably not. What happens if you remove Howard? Dare I say this, but given Howard’s lousy postseason play, the Phillies would have still won the World Series.

Overplaying your Hands

I know I didn’t mention this, however I like the prospect (Jose Ceda) the Marlins received from the Cubs in the Kevin Gregg trade (he was the guy that I wish Baltimore would have got if they had traded Brian Roberts last Spring.) Any ways back off the tangent, the Giants made the first quick strike into the free agent market, grabbing lefty Jeremy Affeldt at two years, 8MM. Like everyone else, I like this move. Affeldt is a good pitcher who will flourish in (pitcher-friendly) San Francisco.

Terms of the contract weren’t anything different than what Ron Mahay got from the Royals last winter (he’s also a good lefty), however the Giants could cash in if Affeldt either gets a chance to start or close for the team. The likelihood of this happening is good too, with Tim Lincecum being a strong canidate for a breakdown in 2009, and their All-Star closer (Brian Wilson) being anything but automatic.

If Affeldt starts for the Giants, the team could be in the same boat as the Cubs are with Ryan Dempster (who apparently is on the verge of signing a four year, 50MM deal. Update, it happened, I’ll discuss late.) As many remember, Affeldt broke into last winter demanding something like 7MM over four years. He didn’t get the deal, and settled on the one-year deal he got from the Reds. It paid out well for both parties, since Affeldt proved that he was a serviceable pitcher, and the Reds get compensation in the 2009 draft since Elias classified him as a Type B free agent.

Usually when a player turns down a lucrative contract, you have to think a little. Josh Fogg turned down a big deal from the Rockies last Winter, only to find himself looking for work in the Spring. Same thing goes with Kyle Lohse, who turned down 21MM from the Phillies and found himself in the same position (he did get paid a year later however.)

Affeldt didn’t officially receive a big offer last Winter, however I wonder why he didn’t test the market a little better this year. Still, I’m sure he thought about Fogg and Lohse when he made his decision yesterday. Now what will the other free agent starters do with the Yankees’ offers, that is Sabathia (140MM) and now A.J. Burnett (80MM?)

It seems that every free agent predictor I recently saw had free agent C.C. Sabathia receiving a contract of total compensation of 140MM. Personally I pinned him at 143MM back in August, but that was over seven years. The official offer from the Yankees has it at 140MM over six.

Sabathia and the Yankees makes sense, especially considering how they lost out on Johan Sanatana last winter. This is the move that everyone saw from day one, and Sabathia is about to become a Yankee. I highly doubt that his side will submit a counter-offer to the Yankees, especially since 140MM is tough to top. Besides, the last thing Sabathia would want is for the Yankees to withdraw the offer (hence the push from the MLB Players Union on him to sign this deal.)

This signing should go down this week sometime. Honestly I like it. I expected it. Sabathia is good and the Yankees will have him in his prime. LeBron James is estatic with this move, and Doug Melvin is depressed. I understand that Sabathia’s camp referred to the Brewers’ offer (supposed 5 years, 100MM) as “window dressings", but at least he made the effort to keep him in uniform. There’s not much left for him to do now except for to take the draft picks and move on.

So here we are. The Yankees are moving swift and quickly to completely make over this team. Sabathia is a good start, and I loved the Nick Swisher trade (what a steal.) As to who will be the next starter that the Yankees haul in, my guess is Derek Lowe. It’s fitting, since Lowe is the top target that the Red Sox want this winter as well.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

Any one in Kansas City who grabbed the Kansas City Star this morning was able to read Joe Posnanski’s latest piece. Going by my count, I think it’s his tenth post discussing Mike Jacobs. Any ways this is my fifth I think, and for a minor trade like this five is way too much.

He brought up the fact that reporters were asking Dayton Moore about why they made this trade. Any ways let’s quickly surmise the problem here: there’s a supposition going around that Moore is trying to dismantle the deep talent that he has in his system and is trying to bring in players who can’t on base. They got Jacobs, they were after Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Franklin Gutierrez. Posnanski even showed what the lineup would look like for them if they brought in those players. His projection has the team getting on base roughly 30% of the time.

The Jacobs trade from two weeks ago was not a blockbuster. The Marlins were simply trying to move him, and were willing to take “whatever they could get.” In all fairness, I can’t remember a trade where the team that dealt its slugging first baseman for a middle reliever was seen as the better team. If the Braves were to have traded Mark Teixeira for Justin Speier last July (a similar trade), there would be an uproar in Atlanta (Frank Wren would have been pushed out like he was in Baltimore.) With that statement, I’m honestly surprised that the Marlins didn’t get more for Jacobs.

I’ve been saying this since the trade broke, that if Jacobs got on base more consistently he’d be deadly. If he wound up with an OBP of .350 in 2009, the Royals would have clearly ripped off the Marlins. Moore feels the same way, that is coaches can teach the hitter to be more patient at the plate. They clearly have a great coaching staff, given how much major-league ready talent they have. Posnasnki disagrees; he feels that getting on base is a “talent":

One of the great traps in sports is believing you are smart enough to change somebody. Coaches can help smooth out rough edges, maybe. But getting on base is a TALENT, and you can only improve that so much. It’s fool’s gold to believe anything else.

In either case, this trade is NOT a bad thing for the Royals, as I’ve been saying all along. Having Jacobs on the roster allows for the Royals go give more competition to its younger players. You have to make Kila Ka’aihue earn the first base job, not just hand it to him during the winter. Ask the Yankees how this worked last winter with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy…

So with that all said, I’m projecting the following from Jacobs in 2009: .265/.335/.515, 30 HR, 115 RBI. I think the Royals in 2009 are going to be this year’s Rays. And when the team plays well, the rest of the players play well also, and it’s reflected in their statistics. Seriously, the Royals could win 87 games in 2009. And given the fact that they play in a weak division, that could take them into October next year.

Baseball America has its Top 10 prospects up for the Orioles up now. I know it’s a subscriber-only link (for now, until it gets formally published next year), however they project the team’s rotation for 2012:

1. Chris Tillman
2. Brian Matusz
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Jeremy Guthrie
5. Radhames Liz

That’s an intriguing top three (especially how highly they regard Tillman, though he’ll be further along by 2012 than Matusz or Arrieta will.) One name left off the list however is Danys Baez. He signed that repulsive three year, 19MM deal back in 2006, and will make 5.5MM in 2009 in his walk year. He got the money he got simply because of the fact that he padded his resume with some “closer experience.”

A couple of days ago, Baez informed team officials that he would like to start again. Since we’re not in 2012 yet, and the team’s rotation is currently a mess, it never hurts to listen to this from an open ear. The last time he started was in 2002, when he made all 26 of his career starts. The results that season weren’t anything spectacular, he was essentially an “innings eater", and Baltimore needs two or three of these now.

My opinion: give him a chance to start, I’m not opposed to it. He’ll eat innings, and could preserve a potentially solid bullpen. Besides, 5.5MM would be better spent on a mid-tier starter than it would be on a middle reliever.

Baez was 10-11, 4.41 in that 2002 season (mlb.com.)

More “no-brainer” option decisions

I’ll summarize these up rather quickly.

• The Rangers picked up the 6.2MM 2009 option on Hank Blalock. His second half was strong and he might make a good trade chip come next July. This decision was easy.
• The Yankees declined Damaso Marte’s 2009 6MM option. Too much money for a middle reliever, however he’s in high demand this winter.
• Brian Giles (finally) had his 9MM 2009 option picked up by the Padres. Again, the front office shouldn’t have even had to think about this choice, he was easily one of the best corner outfielders last season.

One free agent signing occurred yesterday, with the Astros agreeing to a 3.5MM contract with reliever LaTroy Hawkins. He was lights-out for the team after coming over from the Yankees mid-season last year (2-0 with an 0.43 ERA in 24 appearances), and this isn’t that bad of a contract.

Warning: the following post is political, and is mildly baseball-related. If this does not interest you, I recommend You Porn.

I was about to write about this yesterday, but got too drunk, and this post was getting heavily partisan (Rush Limbaugh would have been proud.) Any ways tonight I’m completely sober, and can coherently express this a little better. Long story short, I voted for John McCain. Honestly I didn’t like either of the two (main) candidates, however I thought my state was much closer than it was, so I made the choice that I did (note that the networks called Pennsylvania for Obama with 1% of the precincts reporting.)

Obama has been in the news heavily of late, and especially in the baseball world as well. Obama is still undecided as to where he’ll throw the MLB first pitch next year, and he’ll probably be doing it in Chicago for the White Sox (Clinton and Bush did it in Camden Yards for so many years…) Obama is also planning on making baseball relevant in the Olympics again, something I like (even if it involves shutting down the season for two weeks.) I like the fact that Obama is a sports fan (and actually wants a College Football Playoff system established.) However the other issues he believes in made me cast against him. The main reason why: taxes.

Joe the Plumber’s new decision involves choosing between Cliff Lee and Aaron Harrang for his fantasy rotation (WP.)

The one story that was on the front pages all across the country was the one of how agents are worried about the new tax hikes that Obama wants to put in place in January. The one area that everyone is speculating is that he’ll raise the top bracket from the 35% (where Bush lowered it) to 39.6% (where it was under Bill Clinton.) Granted this might seem like pocket change to someone like Manny Ramirez, who just received a contract offer with the second-highest average salary ever, however as the article states this tax will impact someone even harder: small businesses. Now what businesses are considered small businesses?

Enter Scott Boras, the most notorious sports agent known to man. He wrote the book on Oliver Perez (literally), and does whatever he can to help his clients receive the best offer both in terms of compensation and playing environment. Boras, a former player, is very wealthy. He also owns a small business, the Scott Boras Corporation, a “small business” which employs roughly around 100 employees of various skills and talents. It’s clear that his “small business” earns more than 250,000 per year. Case in point, he’ll get 10% off Alex Rodriguez’s record 275MM contract alone. While Boras’ employees might be eligible for an Obama “tax cut” (whatever that exactly means), their boss himself will be hit hard.

Granted Mark Teixeira is a free agent, and he could net a contract of around 20MM this year, so the tax hike for him won’t be an issue. However look at the college players available in next year’s Amateur Draft. Most of these kids come from middle class families, however when they receive their 4MM or so first-round pick signing bonus… You get the picture; another area the Obama tax hike will hit.

Peter Schmuck brought up the point about this, and discussed Rafeal Palmeiro, who left the Orioles and signed for the Rangers. The Orioles offered more money, however Texas has lower taxes, and the net effect of moving there would be the same as staying in Baltimore. I’m not saying that players are motivated by money, but taxation does play a role in free agency and where players decide to go. If Teixeira stays and lives in California to continue to play for the Angels, he’ll have a 10% state income tax for starters (and governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is threatening to raise taxes again.) Teixeira might opt to move east (and take a smaller contract) to some place like Baltimore, where the cost of living is much cheaper than on the West Coast.

Any ways, to read the news, I understand that Obama’s taxes won’t affect the players that much (the best quote I saw was “they’ll get by.") However what the news won’t tell is that these taxes will hit two groups: small businesses representing the agents, and the players drafted next June. As to what will happen, we don’t know. However if anything, we can expect total compensation for contracts to rise going forward. Naturally this is the easiest way to offset a tax increase, outside of passing the costs onto the consumer.

I think I’m going to start a new section here, predicting the possible sleepers for the 2009 season. One such sleeper pick that I love is the Giants’ new first baseman Josh Phelps. Phelps had an amazing year for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate, .291/31/97. He has a career OPS of .815, and most importantly gets on base. The Cardinals unfortunately couldn’t use him (due to some guy named “Pujols” who just hit .357), and as I pointed out on a previous post, Phelps reminds me of Ryan Ludwick, who came out of nowhere to have incredible success for the Cardinals in 2008.

I give credit to Brian Sabean; this is the kind of moves that the Giants need to make. They don’t need to dole out long-term burdensome contracts to players (e.g. Barry Zito, though I like the Aaron Rowand deal.) The Giants desperately needed offense in 2008 (Tim Linececum was in three 1-0 games in 2008), and Phelps will clearly deliver it. They were admittedly horrible at the corners in 2008, and Phelps can expect 550 at bats in 2009. Phelps “figured it out” in the minors in 2008, and I see him getting his career back on track. Phelps is a very quiet sleeper for the 2009 season, an excellent fantasy pickup, and I can see the following from him in 2009: .275/.375/.470, with 25 HR and 90 RBI.

Some other links that support this claim:

• BTBS
• RotoAuthority
• MLBTR
• SB

Some other random links for today:

• Brad Penny’s 2009 option will most-likely be declined by the Dodgers, and A.J. Burnett is now a free agent. I see Burnett getting 65MM over four years now (I originally bet 53MM back in August, before the great fall that Burnett had this past year.)
• We have a new President apparently.

Any ways, we’re five days past the first trade of the MLB offseason, and people are still talking about it. For the most part, people are thinking that the Marlins got the upper hand in the deal which saw them receive reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals for slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs. The most ridiculous thing I’ve seen recently: Mike Jacobs the Musical.

I’ve said it many times recently here: I like the Jacobs trade. The Royals gave up a replaceable reliever and received much needed power, especially considering that their lineup was second to last in the AL in home runs. I know that Jacobs has his holes (OBP), however with a little tinkering he can become a great trade chip for the Royals. Nunez isn’t a bad reliever, however he lacks the upside needed to push himself into the closer’s role (a poor K/BB ratio being one.)

I saw Posnanski’s blog this morning on the trade, and he doesn’t like it. However he echoed the same points, that is the Royals chose SLG over OBP. However in other words, he echoed what I’ve been saying along about the trade:

Mike Jacobs might hit 30 home runs for the Royals this year. He might get his on-base percentage up into the respectable range. He might have his best year. He might. He might. And it isn’t like the Royals traded away a star to get him. … But, more I think about it, I don’t see how he fits into any sort of plan. At all. And the more I think about it, the more I feel certain that this is precisely the kind of move you do not make.

On the other side of the coin, BA was optimistic about the trade:

Put it all together and I just don’t see where there is all that much risk in this trade from the standpoint of Moore and the Royals.

Precisely. The Royals rolled the dice by acquiring Jacobs, and the only chips they had on the table was Nunez. Jacobs has faults, however he’s still young and has upside. And as the previous authors said, he was hampered by unlucky BABIP (which precipitated his .247 average in 2008.) He could blossom into a .270/38/115 hitter for the Royals. Alex Gordon and others in the lineup could benefit from him as well (just like every other hitter in the Marlins’ lineup did last season.) And if this happens, I’ll be here, same time same place, to criticize all the haters of this trade.

Some other things from today:

Brewers pick up Mike Cameron’s 2009 10MM Option

This was an easy move on behalf of Doug Melvin and the club. Cameron only hit .243 in 2008, however he launched 25 HR and stole 17 bases. He also only made one error as well, fielding to a stellar tune of .997. For above-average position power and defense for a center fielder, 10MM is a bargain. And it seemed that the Brewers played better with him in the lineup, especially defensively (Ryan Braun was quietly a good defender in left field.)

Link Roundup

• The MLBTR top 50 free agents are up for everyone to see. Note that I did mine back in August, and I agreed with his destinations for the top two free agents: C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. One other note, we both agree on the Brewers spending big on a closer, though I see Francisco Rodriguez getting the contract, not Brian Fuentes.
• Joe Sheehan (of BP, special to CNN SI), picks five “radical moves” that would be interesting to see made this winter. Camden Chat does agree that it would be interesting to see Brian Roberts move to shop to accommodate one of the free agent second basemen this winter.
• RotoProfessor essays worth discussing: Manny Ramirez’s effect on the Dodgers lineup in 2008, and Rich Hill’s role for 2009. Both of these are good reads. Honestly I’ve given up on him, especially after he got torched for six runs on last Friday’s one inning start. Hill’s solid 2007 season (11-8, 3.92, 183K in 195.0 innings) seems like it was ages ago.
• Changes are coming to Late Innings real soon… I can’t say what. (I’ll give you a hint, it involves two thoughts: revenue and Sam Adams.)

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

Two days after the Mike Jacobs trade happened, we’re still talking about it here. Most of the feedback I’ve seen on the trade has been negative for the Royals, especially from ESPN’s Keith Law, who says that Jacobs is a non-tender candidate, something I honestly don’t see. Given the (rumored) interest that has been floating around about Jacobs, the Marlins were going to at least tender him a contract for next year. I understand that he is arbitration eligible, however 3MM for a first baseman who hits 30HR and drives in 100 is a bargain, and even the Marlins know that.

If Jacobs (as I’ve said earlier) draws about 30 more walks in 2009, his OBP would jump into the .340 range, and he’d be an even more attractive trade candidate for the Royals as they enter next Winter’s off season. In either way, I’ve made the argument that the Royals didn’t get “fleeced” with this move. Looking at the forest from the trees here, the Royals got a 35HR bat (which are rare), and all it cost them was a middle reliever.

…

I’ve seen a post yesterday on Rany on the Royals about the role Billy Butler will play for the team in 2009. He made the following statement:

Most importantly, though, trading for Jacobs makes it more likely than not that Billy Butler has already played his last game for the Royals.

I’m not sure if I’d go that far. He mentions that Dayton Moore isn’t a big fan of Butler, however he’s clearly one of the team’s best prospects to come up in the last three years. Butler is currently penciled in as the Royals’ DH for 2009. His average has always been high, and his lost power came back once he returned to the team’s lineup in July. In either case, I highly doubt that the Royals would move Butler. If there are any players they should move, they should either look at moving Mark Teahen or Jose Guillen. Teahen’s trade value is high now, and Guillen would fill any corner outfield void for many teams. Still if Moore does in fact want to move Butler, Camden Chat says the Orioles would like him.

More on the Royals

The ever interesting RotoProfessor looks at whether Royals’ starter Kyle Davies could be a sleeper in 2009. Honestly I ask this question each and every year about Davies, and I’m personally starting to lose patience with him. He might prove me wrong, I don’t know.

More on the Orioles

Granted the Orioles wouldn’t mind having Butler (as another DH), however the team has numerous holes right now: shortstop, corner infielder, starting pitcher… Roch from MASN looks at the free agents, and mentions that insiders within the Orioles are kicking the tires on free agents Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. I’ve discussed Renteria and the Orioles earlier, and I could see it happening, however he’s a Type B free agent. If the Tigers offer him arbitration (which will most likely happen), Baltimore will lose their second round draft pick next year.

In either news, Peter Schmuck also mentions that the Orioles are highly interested in Mark Teixeira, and there has been rumors that Peter Angelos will pay “whatever it takes” to get Tex at first in 2009. One caveat, Tex is a Type A, and the Angels are sure as ever going to offer him arbitration, especially since they coughed up Casey Kotchman to obtain him. The cost won’t be cheap, and even if the Orioles grab him, after all the teams bump up the bidding he’ll be looking at 20MM per year.

My take, I like Teixeira, however the Orioles aren’t a winning team yet. Granted Teixeira could come in for the money, however he’d be disappointed after Andy MacPhail then dealt the rest of the lineup for prospects (Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff.) MacPhail needs to stay the course and keep building talent within. Last year was good, and he’ll need to start moving more chips to only improve the team’s overall depth.

By the way, the official Elias rankings are out now for the free agents.