Late Innings

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.