Late Innings

After yesterday’s 4-6 tear, Giants’ catching prospect Buster Posey is “en fuego” in the AFL. He’s currently hitting .515. He was the Giants’ first round pick (#5 overall) in the Amateur Draft this year, and would have been #1 overall by the Rays, had it not been for his supposed demands of a 12MM contract.

In regards to other hot prospects in the AFL, Orioles hurler Brian Matusz (drafted #4 overall) is also dominant. Still if either of these two players make it to the majors next season, I expect it to be Posey. I doubt that Baltimore would rush Matusz to the majors, though if he makes the strong case that might change. Still for Posey to reach the majors, the Giants will need to move Bengie Molina. Molina and his 95 RBI from last year might be a good match for the Mets.

Breaking: Tatis Re-signed

The Mets just re-signed Fernando Tatis for 1.7MM in 2009. Good move, and this all but for the most part eliminates the idea of them signing free agent Raul Ibanez. Tatis hit 11 homers last year, and either projects as a full-time outfielder, or will be featured against lefties. Still he won’t hit 34 homers again, and I thought he wasn’t arbitration eligible until 2010… (Correction, Tatis was a free agent and filed today. I thought he was still under team control.)

Jayson Nix and the White Sox

The White Sox signed Jayson Nix to a major league deal for 2009. He was supposedly an option for the Rockies at second base entering last year, however remained stuck in Triple-A and only hit .303/17/51 with a .964 OPS. Like Alexi Ramirez and Carlos Quinten, this is another excellent, under-the-radar move by Kenny Williams. I’ve always been high on both the Nix brothers (him and outfielder Lance Nix.)

I’ve gotten a few emails recently about this question, and I wanted to address it for everyone to know. Edison Volquez is not a rookie. To clarify the rules:

• 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues
• 45 days on the active roster of a major league club (excluding time on the disabled list or any time after rosters are expanded on September 1)

He pitched about 70 innings in parts of three seasons for the Rangers before this, so he was clearly disqualified. If Volquez was a rookie, his name would be mentioned alongside Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, both players who are strong candidates for Rookie of the Year. He was traded for Josh Hamilton, both players made the All-Star team in 2007, and the rest everyone knows. Many people thought this trade was pointless last year, however I loved it. I even wrote the following back in December last year:

Hamilton came at a price, since Volquez was easily one of their best pitchers to make his way up through Texas’ system recently. Still the move benefits both clubs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton hits 25HR in a strong Rangers lineup.

Hot dog, boy was I right with this guess. Now everyone agrees that this trade was huge last season. Any ways that should settle this debate. Any more emails about this will be directed to this post. Now to get shitfaced…

Volquez went 17-6, 3.21 for the Reds in 2008 in 196.0 innings. He struck out 206 hitters. (mlb.com)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

I wanted to extend my sincere congratulations to the Phillies, MLB World Champions for 2008. Just like Ron Jeremy in a porno, they pulled it out. People who read Late Innings regularly know that I’m from Pennsylvania (actually I just revealed that.) I generally root for the Orioles, however a drive to see the Phillies is just an hour and a half away from here. Still as most people know, my allegiance lies with the American League, particularly the AL East. I root for any AL team outside of Boston or New York, and I really wanted Tampa Bay to win this.

Not to joke, but I’ve said before that the Phillies had a window to win, and they’ve did it tonight. That’s worth my respect, especially to Pat Gillick, the genius who edified this team, the same genius who constructed the winning teams that Baltimore had ten years ago. Now the new Philies GM (Ruben Amaro?) gets the fun of deciding what Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard and Ryan Madison (all arbitration-eligible) get paid in 2009.

Smile big guy, you’re getting another big raise in 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Any ways with the series done, and the Election about to be finished as well, we’re going to kick off the exciting MLB offseason, woohoo! And some stuff in store for Late Innings, keep tuned… Yeah I know I got some increased traffic (big time, people actually think I’ve got good things to say), and tomorrow’s essay is going to shake some people… it’s an essay about sports communism, and how I tie it into the current political landscape. It will piss off some people, and you sure as ever don’t want to miss it.

Keep in mind that I’m totally drunk now, and playing Guitar Hero as well.

One week after the Election in November, the Orioles are holding a Rally in Baltimore. One point that everyone’s speculating on is that the team will be unveiling a new uniform for the team. Could there be a new logo in store for the Orioles? That is could we be seeing a meaner bird? Hopefully a new logo will force its team to not play like shit each and every September…

The uniform change did some good for the Tampa Bay Rays in the off season last year. Gone was the neon green (as well as the word “devil"), and it was replaced with a more conservative navy blue look. The result, the team went from worst in 2007 to a MLB-third best 97 wins in 2008.

If you look good, you play good (Wikipedia.)

In regards to the World Series, Tampa Bay can still win this thing, even being down 3-1. The series will resume Wednesday, but luckily for the team they won’t have to face Cole Hamels the rest of the year, and won’t have to face bad strike-zones for Scott Kazmir. The two best bullpens in baseball will go at it on Wednesday in Game Five, and if Tampa can break the tie and pull it out they’ll be in good shape. Game Six sees a sharp James Shields going against an erratic Brett Myers, and Game Seven features the Matt Garza/Jamie Moyer rematch. Garza was clutch in Game Seven in the ALCS as well, and if I was Philadelphia, I’d push to win Game Five and end this series, just so I wouldn’t have to face Shields and (the ALCS MVP) Garza.

Angelic Options

Per RotoWorld:

Angels exercised outfielder Vladimir Guerrero’s $15 million option for 2009…Angels exercised RHP John Lackey’s $9 million option for 2009…Angels declined outfielder Garret Anderson’s $14 million option for 2009.

Again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make these moves.

Grading Trades

It was a year ago from this upcoming Thursday that the Tigers and Dave Dombrowski dealt a pitching prospect in Jair Jurjens and a young outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez for the All Star shortstop Edgar Renteria. Renteria struggled in 2008, posting an OPS under .700, and will most likely lead to the Tigers declining the team’s 2009 option. Hernandez meanwhile is one of the top hitting prospects in the Braves orginization (outside of the Jason Heyward, Jordan Schaffer mix), and Jurjens simply went on to go 13-10, 3.68 for the Braves in 31 starts, arguably becoming their staff ace throughout the season.

Back then Detroit got the upper hand with the trade, however it’s clear that the Braves won out in the long run. On an interesting close, here’s a great piece which does the same thing will all the trades that happened last off season.

It was a relatively slow news day, however there were a few points that I wanted to discuss here:

• Rockies reliever Luis Vizcaino was charged with a D.U.I. and is being held with a 500 USD bail. MLB D.U.I.s aren’t a big deal, however they’re fun to write about. Joba Chamberlain had one last week, B.J. Upton had one in the past as well. These things come and go by quickly, unless there’s a manslaughter charge pressing. Still on an aside, you’d think that the Rockies would rather now have LaTroy Hawkins instead of “The Viz", especially based on how well Hawkins pitched for the Astros.
• RotoProfessor gives his Top 10 Free Agent busts from 2007. I can’t agree anymore with him on his #1 pick, as I’ve been saying for some time now.
• According to the Denver Post, the Rockies want to move Garret Atkins for pitching, based on the fact that he’s due another raise in arbitration this season, and the other fact that Ian Stewart has emerged as a solid infield option. Atkins’ road numbers should scare you by the way.
• Jack Zduriencik, the new GM of the M’s, is starting his search for the new team’s manager. Is Ned Yost the logical answer? Also, the Onion makes a great case as to why Jim Riggleman should be brought back to manage the team.
• According to MLBTR, a Mark Teahen/Franklin Gutierrez trade between the Royals and Indians is false rumors. I spoke highly about both players in the Spring, and even though I correctly predicted that Teahen’s power had returned, his other numbers (OPS in particular) have regressed.

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

Some random links for today. I’ll keep these short and sweet, since a heavy night of drinking is about to commence.

• Cole Hamels‘ stellar postseason should help net him a big payday in 2009, his first arbitration season. I’m predicting that he’ll be awarded a 6MM salary in 2009, given the past qualms about his contract from this year. It should be noted that even though Ryan Howard is struggling in the postseason, he’ll probably be given a 3MM or so raise and get into the 13MM ballpark, year two of salary arbitration for him.
• RotoProfessor looks at Chris Tillman (one-time Mariners prospect that the Orioles received in the Erik Bedard trade.) Some points of note, he may be useful for them in 2009, given the lack of starters that Baltimore has. His 1.33 WHIP from last year was alarming though, and comparisons were drawn to another walk-prone pitcher with all the talent in the world: Daniel Cabrera.
• J.J. Cooper of Baseball America looks at the accomplishments of (new Mariners GM) Jack Zduriencik in Milwaukee.
• Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun reminds the Cubs that they can have Brian Roberts, however it’ll cost them Josh Vitters to start. I know that teams are reluctant to trade their 2007 first round picks, but this is what it’ll cost to get Roberts.
• The Blue Jays and other teams (outside of Baltimore) are interested in Adam Loewen as a hitter. I think the glowing words from MASN’s Roch Kubatko about Loewen’s patience kindled the interest. Speaking of jokes on Jamie Moyer, some clever humor about him (I think I was five when the Orioles traded him to the Red Sox.) Correction, Boston signed him in 1996.
• Billy Beane talks health care, Moneyball-style.
• Raising Arizona — the AFL’s “Rising Stars” game starts today. An incredible cast of young talent will be featured.

Update: the Peavy to the Braves trade now seems highly unlikely, especially since Frank Wren doesn’t want to surrender the Braves’ top talent.

I wrote about this earlier last week, and the topic has gotten more and more attention since then. Any ways for the most part, due to issues such as no-trade clauses and prospect availability, the only team that has been linked with the Jake Peavy trade rumors has been the Atlanta Braves. There have been a number of suggestions linked, and the one group that has been mentioned is Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar. Hanson for the most part is their only pitching prospect, Schafer lost some of his early season glitter after his 50 game HGH suspension, and Johnson/Escobar are regulars in the Braves infield.

Any ways personally I don’t feel that is enough for Peavy, who if going by the “good season", “off season” trend for Padres pitchers (which started with Oliver Perez and Brian Lawrence) is due for one hell of a season in 2008. Keith Law for the most part agrees.

The first question I have is why is Jason Heyward’s name not mentioned in these rumors? He should be the starting centerpiece for any deal for Peavy. I know that people don’t like trading their 2007 draft picks, however the Brewers did it with Matt LaPorta when they acquired C.C. Sabathia. I know that I’m not Paul DePodesta, but this is what I would do if I would shop Peavy (which I’m still not sure if the Padres even want to trade.)

Any ways Sickels coincidentally did his 20 best prospects for the Braves last night, during Game 2 of the World Series, and in media res of these Peavy talks. He ranked the prospects, and Heyward is #1, Hanson is #3 and Schafer is #4. Heyward got an A-, and Hanson and Schafer got B+es. Any ways his comments on Heyward:

A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.

Some remarks on Tommy Hanson:

Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.

And a humorous quip on Schafer:

Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.

Any ways to surmise what the Padres could be getting here, a #3 pitching prospect, a #4 outfield prospect, and a regressing infielder in Johnson for an All Star in Peavy (who still had a 2.85 ERA in a “down” year?) If DePodesta pulled the trigger on this trade, we’d be ridiculing him, since this is a worse haul than the Twins got for Johan Santana. The city of San Diego would probably go after him as well.

Any ways to the Braves fans, start the package with Heyward. Throw in Hanson and two other top pitching prospects (kinda barren here) and you can have Peavy. That would do it for me, and would probably do it for the Padres as well. That’s the template which got the Mariners Erik Bedard, the Diamondbacks Dan Haren, the Brewers Sabathia and the Twins Santana.

If the Padres need help in looking for Braves pitching prospects, they can wait a few weeks for Baseball America to do their top 10 organizational prospects. They usually do the NL teams in November and the AL teams in January. Still there’s one thing that’s certain about these Peavy trade rumors: there should be no rush whatsoever on the Padres’ part to move their ace.

The Mariners finally made a splash today and named their GM choice, former Brewers executive Jack Zduriencik. This move was supposed to be announced last Friday, and we got news today that they were still searching. In either case Zduriencik is responsible for developing a talented young core of players in Milwaukee, such as Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Ryan Bruan. He now gets the task of essentially undoing the four-plus years of mistake that Bill Bavasi made on the organization.

I was going to cite Prospect Insider on this story, however they’re down now. Hopefully Jason Churchill and Co. can get WordPress back up and running. In either case, most of the reports that I’ve seen on this move have been favorable. He was probably the M’s best choice, mainly since the best executives weren’t allowed by their teams (e.g. Tigers, Padres) to even interview.

There have been some humorous posts about this signing, my personal favorite:

At the very least I don’t think the Mariners will be selecting another closer in the first round anytime soon

Personally I feel that the Mariners are developing talent as good as any team. They’ve been drafting very well, and as I’ve said before here, I’m a big fan of their recent first rounders, that is Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow and Phillipe Aumont. What doomed them last season was Bavasi. He over-dealt the good youth (e.g. Rafeal Soriano, Chris Tillman, Adam Jones) and over-paid for aging players (e.g. Richie Sexon, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, etc.) At the time when he signed Adrian Beltre to his four year deal (coming off that 48 HR season), Beltre was maligned, however in retrospect this appears to be a good move.

Regardless what the M’s need to do is do what the Rays, Pirates, Orioles, Indians, Royals and such are doing, which is build the young talent up, and avoid caustic contracts. They can’t expect some team to just hand over Kevin Slowley for Beltre (like they tried back in July), just out of pity for what Bavasi did on the team. It took them four years to get into the mess, it’s going to take them four years to get out. Bavasi was bad (here’s a good post on Forbes last year ranking the GMs with three years of experience, Bavasi is in the bottom 10%.) Zduriencik is a move in the right direction.

Ranking the Youth

Bill James has his rankings out for the best young teams, which will be part of his 2009 Almanac (available next month.) Here’s his listing of the teams:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

I can’t agree any further with this list. The Twins have the best 1-5 starters right now, and they were all homegrown. They also have great outfielders in the wings as well. Sickels doesn’t regard them too highly however, though he says glowing things about Ben Revere. Still what the Twins have now is a testament to what the Mariners need to do to right their ship. To further add to this, James has his top 25 under-25 list out as well. It’s tough to disagree with any of these choices, though some of the players might deserve a “bump":

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

An Unlikely Fall Classic

For the record about the series, I predicted the Dodgers to win the whole thing. I was wrong admittedly (though they did make it deep into the NLCS.) Any ways with that said, just like everyone else I like the Rays. The main reason why is Scott Kazmir. The Philies will face him twice in the series, including this evening. Kazmir missed the first month of the year, then broke out in May, going 5-1, 1.22. He made the All Star team and got the win in the extra-innings game, then started to stumble in the second half, finishing with a 3.49 ERA for the season.

His first two postseason starts were tough, but the six shutout innings he threw in Game 5 in the ALCS were brilliant (with seven Ks to go as well.) David Price and Andy Sonnanstine are the X-factors here. The Phillies might win it, however they need to move up Joe Blanton to be the third starter. The Rays are a smart offense, and they hit soft tossers hard (e.g. Tim Wakefield last series.) They’ll face Jamie “Grandpa” Moyer twice. In either case, it’ll be a good series, and since I root for the AL East, I’m rooting for the Rays. Their starting pitching should get the job done.

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

The Orioles started shaping up their 40 man roster for the Rule V draft (which occurs during the Winter Meetings in December in Las Vegas.) They sent five players to Triple-A Norfolk, the notable one being Randor Bierd, last year’s Rule V pick by the Orioles from the Tigers. Bierd finished with a 4.91 ERA in 36.1 innings. He was highly-effective until he got injured, pitching to a 2.03 ERA. He took a 3.60 ERA into September when he came back from the DL, however like all Orioles players that month, Bierd stumbled at the finish line.

Bierd does need seasoning this year in the minors, but he still has a live arm, pitching to a 10+ K/9 in 2007. On an aside this year’s Rule V draft wasn’t too exciting. I thought Bierd was a good find, however the player who made the best impact was Wesley Wright, a solid member of the Astros’ bullpen. And like most people I thought Brian Barton and R.A. Dickey would have made larger impacts than they did.

On to Loewen, his career as a pitcher is over. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Orioles, who gave him a major league deal for about 4MM one year in college. Granted this didn’t turn out as well as they had hoped, and hopefully the same fate won’t happen to Brian Matusz, who also received a major league deal. Granted Joe Jordan wasn’t the Director of Scouting back then… any ways Loewen can always come back as a hitter. He might catch fire and do what Rick Ankiel is doing. The Orioles can always sign him to a minor league deal, however he’ll have to pass through waivers first. I’m not sure if any team will ween interest in him.

Loewen finishes his pitching career with a 8-8, 5.38 record in parts of three seasons. (Photo: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?

I watched the game last night (and had to listen to Buck Martinez, ugh), and in the end smiled. I’m proud of the Rays, proud of the fact that the American League team came from my favorite division, the AL East. I know that by not having the Nation and the Dodgers in the series, it’ll be a “ratings disaster” (to quote ESPN.) But I could care less, this will be a great series.

I wanted to comment on David Price. I think the sky’s the limit for him, and he’ll be to the American League next year what Tim Lincecum was to the National League this year. For a player who was drafted #1 overall last year to not be given an MLB contract, he progressed fairly quickly through the Rays’ system. Watching him save out the Rays’ ALCS made me think back to the 2006 series, when Adam Wainright was thrust into closing duties for the Cardinals against the Tigers. I also heard comparisons to how Francisco Rodriguez took the bull by the horns as well the last time the Angels were in the World Series.

Nonetheless, some fun facts about Price, there was a “what if” post on BP this weekend, asking what would have happened between one game in 2006 between the Tigers and the Royals, who essentially helped guarantee that Tampa Bay would get the #1 overall pick in 2007 (and choose Price.) Had the Royals gotten this pick, they would have presumably picked Price as well; pitchers like him are rare. Nothing against Mike Moustakas, whom I think will be fine (Sickels only gave him a A-), the Rays got the upper hand here. And to pour more salt in the wound between these two teams, Evan Longoria is looking like a better pick from the 2006 draft (drafted #3) than Luke Hovechar (overall #1, not that he won’t be a useful starter.) Now if only Tampa would have drafted better from the talented crop of players available in the 2005 draft (Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury were all drafted after Wade Townsend in the first round, a pitcher who probably won’t ever see the light of day. Then again, Chuck LaMar was running the franchise in 2005, and we all know what happened then.)

The Hendry Contract

The Cubs finally got things done today, even with sale of the organization looming, by giving Jim Hendry a four year extension today. Great move at it couldn’t have come any sooner. Now he can focus on resigning Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, which hopefully he can do soon.

Hendry assembled the best team in the National League last year (winning percentage-wise, sorry Phillies fans.) The team’s three-and-out postseason wasn’t his fault, though he should have gave in a little to Andy MacPhail’s demands for Brian Roberts. He would have gotten two years from Roberts (who doesn’t hit free agency until ‘09), and would have got a hitter who could have brought life into the lineup in October, something Alfonso Soriano fails to do each and every time out.

The Late Innings Mail Bag Segment

I’m not sure what was said on MASN this past week, but I got three seperate emails asking me about the Orioles and their chances for signing free agent Oliver Perez. I honestly haven’t heard any rumors about this, and wouldn’t be too mum about the O’s signing this pitcher. Granted he’s a Scott Boras client, but he’s coming off a down year. Could he get 16MM a year like many were speculating this past Spring? I doubt it.

Perez rebounded from a poor start to finish 10-7, 4.22 in 2008. (AP)

Back in August, I speculated that Perez would get 11MM-12MM this winter from the clubs. Of course now that Jake Peavy is available on the market, this changes everything (look what Erik Bedard, Johan Santana and Dan Haren did to the free agent starters, notably Kyle Lohse.) I could see Perez getting something more than the 41MM that Lohse got last month, but Boras would probably consider that selling low on his client. He might opt Perez to take a low term deal (two years or so) at 10MM a year to reestablish his value.

Personally I wouldn’t mind having a short-term deal on Perez, mainly since Baltimore has so much pitching coming up in the minors. Four years is too much, especially since Perez’s ERA would go up by a half run moving to the AL East. Four years of Jon Garland would be worse, much worse. And I think four years at 15MM per season for A.J. Burnett would be foolish. I know that Baltimore needs to bring in an arm to back Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, but an innings-eater like Braden Looper would be more ideal. According to Buster Olney, the O’s are prepared to go on a spending binge this Winter, and Burnett and Mark Teixeira (MD natives) are in their crosshairs. I would love to have Teixeira, and given his track record and health he would make sense. However at 20MM a year, that’s too large of a percentage of the budget to allocate to one player, even if he would place fans in the seats at Camden Yards.

More on the Mets and Royals

To close, there was a rumor which came up about a possible swap between these two clubs for Luis Castillo and Jose Guillen. Actually these two teams have been talking. Guillen has 24MM owed over the next two, Castillo 18MM over the next three. Both would address holes on each team as well, with the Mets needing outfield help, and the Royals looking to sign a middle infielder (they’re interested in Rafeal Furcal.)

If that trade occurred, I would like it on both sides. I know that everyone is considering each signing a “bad contract” (you might want to lump Juan Pierre into this discussion), but it’s not the player’s fault that they received the money they did (point the fingers at the clubs here), especially given the fact that their 2008 numbers were indicative of their career norms.

Update: it’s a two year deal for about 10MM to 11MM. There’s an option for a third year, so the total value of the contract could be worth 18MM. On an aside, I predicted three years, 18MM a while back, so I’m right on the money here with my guess.

ESPN is reporting that the Oakland A’s and second baseman Mark Ellis agreed to a multi-year contract extension (there were rumors in Buster Olney’s blog yesterday.) He was set to become a free agent after the World Series ended. Ellis is one of the premier defensive second baseman in all of baseball, however his bat regressed in 2007: hitting .233/12/41. He stole 14 bases though, and this was the first time that he reached a double-double for his career. He hit a career high 19 homers in 2007.

I predicted that the Cardinals would have signed Ellis this winter, since they clearly need middle infield help. Billy Beane however didn’t let him get out onto the open market. The A’s have a glut of young second basemen, that is Eric Patterson, Jemile Weeks, Adrian Cardenas… Ellis still is a good fit however, since the later two aren’t MLB-ready and Patterson can play just about anywhere. On the whole this is a good move by Beane, and I like the signing. I’ll post terms and value of the contract once that news surfaces.

The MLB postseason awards were handed out a little early. Saturday morning, the cops pulled over Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain and handed him a new award of his own. No, no, no, he didn’t receive Rookie of the Year (sorry Evan Longoria), however he received something a little different: a D.U.I.

From what my friends say, these things suck. Hopefully he’ll get good legal representation. Some of the things he was charged for aside from the intoxication, driving with an open container. Ouch. I’ve personally never gotten a D.U.I., and since I’ve got my own place, I probably won’t have to worry about doing that, since I found out that it’s so much cheaper (and safer) to drink at home. That’s why I’m hanging out with my good friend Johnnie Walker this fine Sunday morning.

Taking a page from the Paris Hilton playbook…

The reason why I’m drinking this early, the Rays couldn’t seal the deal. The Nation is advancing to a game seven. Wow…

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

In regards to the Rays and their success, a good portion of it has to be attributed to their young GM Andrew Friedman. However one of the senior advisers to Friedman is Gerry Hunsicker, the former Astros GM. Given the success that the team has now, Hunsicker will be a hot commodity this winter with teams searching for new GMs. One possibility that was brought up was having Hunsicker head back to Texas and serve as an assistant to the young Jon Daniels of the Rangers. As John Sickels pointed out, the team did win 79 games this year, however they have a few areas that need addressed.

At the end of April, the Rangers were 10-18 and looked lost. Everyone was expecting that their manager Ron Washington would be fired at that point. He could still be, especially knowing that Nolan Ryan wants to change this team, however the team did play much better after April, getting back to .500 and flirting with it the rest of the way. Had the team played better in April, they could have been a .500 team in 2008.

In either case, as Sickels pointed out the Rangers have some areas to address. These include:

• Addressing holes at third base
• Addressing weaknesses in their pitching
• Solving the catching/first base “log jam”

Hank Blalock was hot in September and his 6.2MM option for 2009 should be picked up. However as to being a long term option, it’s yet to be known. They have great depth around with David Murphy, Chris Davis, and an excellent farm system. The team however needs starting pitching. Scott Feldman came on at the end of the season, but Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood aren’t optimal long-term answers. And we can’t forget that the team will be doling out 80MM over the next six years to Michael Young, a move which will definitely put a damper on the team’s finances (thankfully they were able to lock up Ian Kinsler cheaply last year for 22MM.)

In either case, getting to the point of this post, the Rangers have a surplus at catching right now. They have four catchers who could be regular starters on any major league team: Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. Since the team is in a rebuilding phase still, they should be starting a platoon of Teagarden and Ramirez (who doesn’t need to be traded anymore by the way.) Both players have the power potential, and Teagarden hit very well at the end of the season to earn a starting role (Ramirez still has to do this.) These two also have the least amount of service time amongst their peers, so it’s wise to hold onto each. In regards to the other two, the following trades would be wise from both sides:

• Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. As I wrote earlier today, Jason Varitek isn’t hitting this postseason and I think his days of starting are now outnumbered, though I once expected that he’d resign with the club this winter for 10MM. Saltalamacchia is a player that Theo Epstein likes, and he’s cheap, under team-control and is talented. He was the crown jewel of the Mark Teixeira trade back in the Summer of 2007. The Red Sox have the young pitching and infield prospects needed to pry him from Daniels and the Rangers.
• Laird to the Marlins. There was a post up on MLB.com this weekend about how the Rockies were looking to trade Dan Uggla and Scott Olsen for Yorvit Torrealba and a prospect. Yikes. I know that both players are arbitration eligible, but Torrealba is a free agent next winter, and wouldn’t be much cheaper than not paying Uggla and Olsen. Laird makes more sense. He’s a plus hitter and a plus defender, and is the most experienced catcher on the Rangers. The Marlins, like the Red Sox, have the young talent that Daniels craves. I don’t see them coughing up Chris Volstad, however the arbitration-eligible Jorge Cantu would make sense at third, given the fact that Dallas MacPherson (and his 40 home runs from last season) reside in Triple-A.

I love writing about the Red Sox, especially in the disappointing tone. I can understand the problems that they’re having now, especially since I’ve had to follow the Orioles for the past ten abysmal years. I know that ESPN is disappointed right now…

Any ways what’s exactly wrong with this team? They looked dead last night against the Rays. Tampa Bay finally solved Jon Lester, who threw fourteen innings without allowing an earned run against the Angels in the ALDS. The series hinges tonight on the performances of both Andy Sonnanstine and Tim Wakefield. Both pitchers are soft-tossers, however Sonnanstine’s velocity is much better than Wakefield’s on the whole. If Wakefield is off his game tonight, that could be one more coffin nail in the Red Sox’s season. Terry Francona probably has him on the shortest of leashes tonight.

In regards to the problems, the Red Sox have many more than what appears on the surface. Josh Beckett probably won’t be effective next time out, especially given his arm issues that’ll have to be addressed this off season. Lester will need to get back on track, and they’ll need another miracle from Diasuke Matsuzaka to keep their postseason hopes alive. They’re facing a hot and healthy Rays team now, and desperately need the starters to pitch well if they want to advance.

The reason why they need to pitch well is simple: the offense has been disappointing. Any hitter outside of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia (both of whom should be given heavy AL MVP consideration) needs to step up his game. Even though the team scored eight runs on Saturday in their extra-inning loss, they’ve only mustered three in their other two games. As to why they’ve played this poorly… they have three rally-killing sink-holes in their lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz and Jason Varitek have yet to find their first hit in the ALCS. If Boston wants to advance, these three need to hit. Period.

Big Papi needs to look here to rediscover his swing. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

I read a piece this weekend in the NY Daily News, mainly about Manny Ramirez asking for a six year deal this coming Winter. I know that his services will be in demand this winter, especially after a .332, 37 HR campaign, however hopefully teams won’t go overboard for him.

If I did my math correctly and if Manny gets that six year deal he wants, he’ll be 43 at the end of the contract. In order for him to make out ahead, he’ll need to recoup at least 20MM a year for the next two years, the money that Boston was going to pay him in options if he had just remained quiet. The Dodgers agreed to drop these two options, and he’ll be a free agent on November 15th. The Dodgers will most likely offer him arbitration as well, especially since he’s a Type A free agent (or will most likely be so.) They wouldn’t mind having him back on a one year deal.

The arbitration bit will hurt Manny, since many teams who go after Ramirez won’t want to surrender the draft picks. Still an ideal situation is that we’ll have some more MLB collusion, that is the same flavor that we had back when Barry Bonds wasn’t being tendered a contract. I’d love to see Manny simply just get one year contracts, and have to watch him re-work his worth each year. However I don’t see that happening. Manny should get at least three years this year, and one team might go out on a limb and give him four.

Prediction: three years, 57MM. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Given the state of economic mess that we’re with in this country, I often wonder about how that will affect free agent paydays this Winter? Will A.J. Burnett hit his 15MM a year demand? Who will overpay and purchase this year’s Carlos Silva? Honestly I expect the purse strings to be tightened somewhat. C.C. Sabathia will still get his money, but in regards to everyone else it’s hard to tell.

In regards to what’s going on in Baltimore, a four-day organizational meeting is currently under way with all of the front office brass. Throw out the abysmal final forty games of the season, and Andy MacPhail and his staff could consider the 2008 season a success. The front office saw great strides this season, especially from young players like Adam Jones, Matt Weiters and Jeremy Guthrie. Right now the Orioles could use starting pitching, as well as some middle infield help, however they could once again have a bullpen surplus in 2009, especially with the return of 2007 closer Chris Ray.

There have been a few rumors that the Orioles would be pursing both big name free agents Mark Teixeira and Burnett. Granted the team has some cash right now, and will have some more off the books after 2009, and bringing in these two players will cost some cash. Scott Boras already has stated that Teixeria will cost 200MM over ten years, and Burnett himself will cost 15MM a year (or so he demands.) Will both of these two players address the problems that the team had in 2008, which primarily includes stopping the perenial end of year collapses?

In my opinion I’d take both. Burnett would add much needed depth to the rotation, giving some support to their ace Jeremy Guthrie. And Teixeria would fill a void at first, something that’s been missing for about ten years since Rafeal Palmerio left as a free agent years back. Playing devil’s advocate, say that both players sign onto MacPhail’s plan, Teixeria comes aboard for seven years, Burnett for five. Even though both players are from the Baltimore area, they most likely won’t take “hometown discounts” to play for the Orioles. Still even with both of them on board, how would they react if MacPhail suddenly traded Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora?

The Orioles are clearly in a rebuilding phase right now. They have a talented all-world catcher coming up however with Weiters. They are set with Nick Markakis and Jones in the outfield. And they have a tremendous amount of starting pitching in the minors that rivals very few teams. However these arms are a few years away, and that includes Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and David Hernandez. If both Burnett and Teixeria are on board, they would have to understand that this isn’t a one year plan. I’d love to have both of these guys on board, and I could see them leading the next winning Orioles club, however it’s unlikely that either of these two players would want to be part of a rebuilding project.

In other random news from the weekend:

• Speaking of Matusz, he made his professional debut for the Orioles in the fall league, and threw three hitless innings. Matusz was the #4 overall pick in this year’s draft, and should advance swiftly through the minors, especially given the major league contract he received in August.
• In regards to other top draft picks, the #1 pick from last year’s draft David Price got his first career win during last Saturday’s postseason win against the Red Sox. He’s still looking for his first career win in the regular season, however given his talent, that shouldn’t be a problem.
• Jonothan Papelbon is the record holder for the longest streak of postseason scoreless innings, in case anyone is interested.

As we all know by now, both teams from Gotham City failed to make the playoffs. At least one New York team has been in the playoffs since 1995. So now that we know the problem, what can these two teams do to get themselves back into the postseason? For starters, both teams have cash and are entirely liquid, especially from playing in the largest media market. Both teams also have a good amount of dead cash coming off the books in November. Fixing the Mets would be a whole new story, however let’s look at fixing the Yankees. I know that they play in the toughest division in baseball, however they’re a very few number of moves away from pushing themselves back up as a dangerous force.

If I’m Brian Cashman, fixing the Yankees should involve the following three things (in no real order):

1. Improve defense.
2. Create an offense which gets on base (improve OBP.)
3. Stabalize the starting pitching.

The first two points can be done rather easily, especially if Cashman inks Mark Teixiera to a large contract, and lets Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu walk. Personally I think that Brett Gardner can handle the job in center. That .228 average might look bad, but he got white hot at the end of the season, finishing with a ten game hitting streak. And given the four outfield assists he had in such limited play, his defense would clearly be a plus. That .289 OBP of his is sure to improve.

The Yankees would be wise to keep Gardner in center, instead of pursuing Nate McClouth. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

However, the main area of concern for the Yankees going into the Winter should be their starting pitching. I’m projecting a rotation of the following:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chein Mein Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite

Great staff on paper, and they’d still have Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Darrell Rassner available as backups. I read through Jon Heyman’s piece today, and he’s projecting two of the three to sign with the Yankees: Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett. Wow, that could get expensive. However, think how dangerous this team could be in 2009.

So obviously they can’t sign everyone. In that case who would walk? Mussina could go, but he stabilized their rotation in 2008, winning 20 games and pitching 200 innings. People in Baltimore are speculating that he could return home as well, and isn’t too crazy of an idea. Pettite had a down year himself, and he probably won’t get 16MM again.

In either case, adding Sabathia and Teixiera would add ten wins to the Yankees, a team that didn’t meet expectations by only winning 89 games in 2008. Adding Lowe or Burnett could push their 2009 win total over triple digits. In other words, this is how close the Yankees are to being a dangerously good team.

Any ways as usual I’ve been drinking tonight (note to casual L.I. readers, this tends to happen often here.) I made predictions last week as to who would win each Division Series. I got the Rays and Dodgers right, I got the Angels and Cubs wrong. In regards to the Phillies, the pitching is key. Brett Myers stepped up, as did Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton was huge. That’s why they won. Of course the Brewers’ mistakes helped. The Angels I thought were going to pull it out as well, however they made base-running mistakes all series. Still, as we’ve learned now facing Jon Lester in a short series is deadly. And we also saw the importance of jumping out to a 2-0 lead in a short series, since all four of the teams that did this either swept their series or won it in four.

Any ways with that stated, we have our Championship series. I still think the Dodgers are going to win the whole thing (as I’ve been saying since March.) It’ll be great to see Manny Ramirez go back and face his (supposedly maligned) teammates in Boston. I love the story that the Rays are writing now, and I’d love to see them win, however the Red Sox have too deep of a team. I’m rooting for the Dodgers to knock the Red Sox, just so I won’t have to hear the words “Nation!” and “dynasty” uttered all throughout ESPN all Winter.

Any ways back to the hot stove discussion, and in regards to the Rays, think back to the Chad Bradford trade. The Rays get him for this year and the next for 3MM. The Orioles? They get a PTBNL. As to who they would get for this, I’m not sure. Reid Brignac, I doubt it. Same goes with Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis. As Peter Schmuck said, they most likely won’t get their blue chip prospects here. One reader posted a comment saying how Baltimore will most likely receive Evan Longoria, since they’ll want to unload all that money he was inked to back in April. As to what the comment said:

I still think that the Rays regret giving so much money so soon to Longoria and they are trying to offload him to the Orioles as the PTBNL, but of course he didn’t clear waivers. The O’s have two major concerns with accepting him though: 1) all that guaranteed money he’s getting; and 2) they are already set at 3B with Mora. So I heard that Angelos is trying to get TB to pick up some of the guaranteed money in Longoria’s contract to take him off their hands.

Schmuck’s rebuttal was classic:

I think you’re right. The guy is totally overrated.

Hopefully Baltimore will make the same proposition to the Brewers for Ryan Braun. He also was given a good chunk of money so early into his career. Yeah I’d love to see Longoria in Baltimore, but then again pigs must fly. Maybe that’ll start happening after a few more drinks tonight…

The regular season is in the can, and a month from now the big awards will be handed out by the BWAA. We gave our predictions back in March. Revisiting those selections, we’ll compare them to who we think deserves the awards now.

NL Most Valuable Player

According to BP and PECOTA, the St. Louis Cardinals weren’t expected to be anything better than a 79 win team for 2008. However they surprised many and won 86 games. Granted due to the fact that they played in the competitive NL Central, they missed out on the playoffs. A big reason they played as well as they did was because of the season that Albert Pujols had.

I know that there will be an inclination by the BWAA to pick either Carlos Delgado or Ryan Howard. After all both players had massive home run and RBI totals. However in looking at a viable candidate for MVP, I’m going to use a good-old new age statistic: WARP, or “wins above replacement player.” Now what’s a replacement player you ask? Let me introduce Garrett Atkins:

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Replacement Player (in the Players’ Union of course.) (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Atkins had a solid year, .286, 21, 99, however thanks to a .780 OPS he was nothing more than an average player. In other words, Atkins has a WARP of 0.0. This statistic attempts to find how many wins a player would be worth to his team more than Atkins. Howard and Delgado are worth about two wins more a piece. Pujols is close to eight. The same goes with the Astros and Lance Berkman. My preseason pick MVP of David Wright (six) or Carlos Beltran (seven) would be considerably better alternatives than Delgado, and the same goes with Pat Burrell and Chase Utley instead of Howard.

I’ve been seeing so many stories which are supporting Howard, especially in the Baltimore Sun. I wanted to chime on this earlier, FJM beat me to it. Yes, Howard hits home runs, we get it. He’ll also have a 15MM payday in 2009. In the end however, you can’t ignore the season that Pujols had. At the beginning of the year, everyone expected his numbers to be down, with the anticipation that he might have surgery. He stayed healthy and was dominant. His triple-crown numbers speak for themselves: .357, 37, 116. Without him, the Cardinals would have been lost this season. Pujols is the clear pick for 2008 NL MVP.
Preseason Pick: Wright

AL Most Valuable Player

Like Pujols above, Carlos Quinten was having the kind of season where giving him the MVP was a no-brainer, that is until he got hurt in September. Now the scramble is on to find the clear-choice MVP canidate. For me I like Joe Mauer, though it’s an equal toss-up between Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Mauer’s teammate Justin Morneau (recipient of the 2006 MVP award.) Mauer was the AL batting champion, and brought his Twins within one game of making the playoffs. I know I picked Alex Rodriguez, and since he cannot hit in the clutch, he has no shot of winning this award.
Preseason Pick: Rodriguez

NL Cy Young

I know there are some obvious choices in the pool. Brandon Webb and his 22 wins are tough to overlook. Edison Volquez won 17 games, and Chad Billingsley also won 16, both striking out over 200 hitters. The same goes with Tim Lincecum, who compiled an incredible 18-5, 2.62 record, striking out 265 hitters in 227 innings. Not to overlook Lincecum’s performance, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick Johan Santana.

Santana won 16 games this year. He also struck out over 200 hitters, and led the majors with a 2.53 ERA. Had it not been for his spotty bullpen, he would have easily won the 22 games that Webb did. Santana deserves the NL Cy Young trophy. He did everything in his power to push the Mets into the playoffs. Even though that didn’t happen, the miraculous three-hit shutout he threw on the Saturday at the end of the season against the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco sealed the deal for me.
Preseason Pick: Santana

AL Cy Young

All Winter, I’ve been hyping Justin Verlander as a 20 game winner, ready to take the next step. Like everyone, I expected the Tigers to finish at the top of their division, not in the NL Central cellar. Any ways with Verlander finishing 2008 with a disappointing 11-17 record, I was forced to look elsewhere for finding a Cy Young pitcher. Thankfully the choice wasn’t too difficult.

Last year the majors had one 20 game winner: Josh Beckett. The American League featured three 20 game winners this year alone: Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Mussina was solid, Halladay was much better, but Lee is the clear winner. No offense to the fine season that Ervin Santana had, Lee was equally as good as Santana was, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. He started the All Star Game for the AL, and six starts into the season his ERA was 0.67. I can’t recall a season of late where a pitcher has been so dominant.
Preseason Pick: Verlander

NL Rookie of the Year

I picked Joey Votto as a toss up to win the ROY in the NL, picking him over teammate Jay Bruce. I later picked Cubs’ catcher Geovany Soto for my one fantasy team before the season started. In the end, all three rookies slugged 20 homers. However Soto had a fantastic season (.285, 23, 86), and I’m giving the award to him. Votto had better all-around numbers (.297, 24, 84) though and might be given the award in November.
Preseason Pick: Votto

AL Rookie of the Year

Back in April, I made the bold claim that Alex Gordon will be better in the end than Evan Longoria of the Rays. I could be right in the long run, I could be wrong. However in the end, Longoria had one hell of a rookie campaign: .272, 27, 85.

I did predict that Longoria will win the award, that that was with the other talented rookies in the league, including Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 50 bases and had a good year. Chamberlain was very good until getting hurt, and Buchholz completely flopped. There were other good rookies in the end in the AL, such as the Royals’ Mike Aviles and Alexi Ramirez of the White Sox, but Longoria deserves the award. Many people expected him to be called up in May, so that the Rays could have an extra year of service time of him. He was brought up in early April. He was then given a long term deal, and it looks like he’ll be worth each penny of it in the long run.
Preseason Pick: Longoria

Managers of the Year

The MoTY Award is odd, and is something that many people don’t understand. As this clever post from BtBS states, the award usually goes to the managers who surprise throughout the season. Any ways for kicks, let’s give the award to Joe Madden of Tampa Bay, and Joe Torre of the Dodgers. It in the end doesn’t really matter who wins this award does it?

Executives of the Year

Again I’m not really sure how these are given out. How about we select Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Rays, and Ned Colletti of the Los Angeles Dodgers? I know that Colletti isn’t very popular, but he’s done his job. And Jones wasn’t his fault.

Bad Hitters

With everything good, there are usually a few things that are bad. In regards to hitting, few could have been worse than Richie Sexson this year for the Mariners. He was paid 15.5MM in his walk year, and he hit a typical .221, 12, 36. The Yankees ultimately picked him up and let him go back in August. He’ll best be remembered for charging the mound against Kason Gabbard and the Rangers this year.

The Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a two year deal this past winter averaging 18MM a year. His first year into the contract found him hitting an abysmal .158, 3, 14. Many people (me included) projected him to have a solid year, at least in the power department. He’ll need to turn it around in 2009, otherwise this one will look bad for Scott Boras.

Bad Pitchers

Just as there are bad hitters in baseball, there were also two horrible pitchers. In the AL, I’m hapily giving the award to Carlos Silva of the Mariners. Nicknamed “Mr. Hittable", Silva started his four year, 48MM deal off well in April (3-0, 2.79), then fell apart the rest of the way (1-15, 7.85 May on.) Ouch.

Finding someone equally as bad in the National League was tougher, but I’m giving this award to Livan Hernandez this year. He started off well with the Twins, going 6-2 through May. From June on he fell apart, and was eventually grabbed by the Rockies. He ate innings, 180 of them to be exact, and went a respectable 13-11. The 6.05 ERA was bad, the 1.67 WHIP was worse and the 257 hits he allowed is completely unacceptable. He earned 5MM plus some incentives this season, all bankrolled by the Minnesota Twins.

I know that after today’s effort by the Phillies pushing out C.C. Sabathia and the Milwaukee Brewers out of the postseason, a number of teams expected to bid on Sabathia come November expressed heavy sighs of relief for two reasons:

1. The NLDS ended in four games, not five, when Sabathia would have been trotted out in Game Five of the Series.
2. The Brewers won’t advance into the NLCS to face the Dodgers, with by that point having Sabthia throwing around 265 innings.

Sabathia only threw under four innings in game two of the series, and ends up with around 257 innings for the season. Sabathia has been used heavily the past two years, and is expected to land a contract in the six years, 150MM ballpark. In regards to the teams expected to open the checkbook for him (e.g. the Yankees), from an excellent piece today on RotoWorld by Matthew Pouliot, something to consider about the ace:

Including the postseason, Sabathia has thrown 513 innings over two years, the highest total since Randy Johnson in 2001-02. Johnson threw just 114 innings the following season. Mark Buehrle, the last AL pitcher to go over 500 innings in a two-year span in 2004-05, saw his ERA jump from 3.12 to 4.99 in 2006. Livan Hernandez also topped 500 innings in 2004-05. His ERA jumped from 3.98 in 2005 to 4.83 ERA in 2006 and hasn’t come back down since.

Personally I’m not a fan of starting pitcher abuse. I love watching young pitchers like Tim Lincecum throw, however I cringe in horror when their management (e.g. Bruce Bochy) have them throw 227 innings in a year (Matt Cain is equally abused.) Some pitchers who were abused in 2007 pitched well in 2008, for instance Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78). Others like Aaron Harrang (6-17, 4.78) did not.

Any ways, for those fantasy owners out there… judging on our lessons learned in 2007… if it’s the fourth round and Sabathia and Lincecum are still on the board would you draft them? Personally no, I’d take a solid hitter. I’m curious to see what their numbers will be like in 2009, and wouldn’t risk anything better than a sixth round pick on these two arms. Of course I could be completely wrong here, but we’re starting to see the risk in spending high picks on drafting expensive starting pitching.

So… three and out. The Cubs are done, and the Dodgers are moving on. Again to beat the deadest of horses, I called the Dodgers the 2008 World Series champions back in March. I sounded insane back then, but in all fairness they’re currently the scariest team in the postseason. Any ways since my team was eliminated back in September, the shift of the content here has shifted towards hot stove talk. And there was some news last week about Daniel Cabrera (most of it good), and I wanted to delve further into this.

I mentioned Reed Johnson for this reason. Back in December, the Blue Jays tendered him a contract for 3.2MM. After they realized they had a surplus of outfielders (e.g. Shannon Stewart, Adam Lind, Travis Snider), they released him last Spring. The Cubs picked him up on a 1.3MM deal. His numbers: .303, 6, 50. He formed a very solid platoon with Jim Edmonds, who managed to hit 20 homers this year as part of the Cubs’ “two-headed monster.” Personally I’m a fan of Johnson. His 2006 numbers were outstanding, and I think the Jays gave up on him prematurely after an injury-riddled 2007 campaign.

Johnson should be a star in 2009, especially if Edmonds retires as many are suggesting. As I’ve been saying all along, he’s worthy of a full-time position and is capable of posting .315, 15, 75 numbers. The Cubs jumped on Johnson in a hurry and they were rewarded. So going back to the original question, who will be this 2009’s Reed Johnson?

The Cubs should be giving Johnson an increased role for 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

My vote is going towards Cabrera for this reason. Cabrera earned 2.9MM in 2008, while posting a 8-9, 5.25 record in 180 innings. He was solid in the first half, especially in April (4.14 ERA) and May (3.14 ERA.) He fell apart after that, but the potential is clearly here. His control fell apart however, and his strikeouts were way down; he averaged one strikeout per walk. Granted his work-load was heavy in 2007, and that might have contributed to this season, however many feel that Cabrera is best fit to be a middle-reliever.

My prediction: the O’s tender him a contract and then settle on a 3.5MM deal, avoiding arbitration. They could possibly release him in Spring Training, especially if the other starters that have look capable. Cabrera gives the Orioles much-needed innings out of the rotation, but the front office could supplement those innings by a well-placed free agency signing (like Braden Looper.)

I know I hyped Cabrera earlier this year as well. He’s a very talented pitcher, and is under team control until the end of the 2010 season. However until Cabrera can figure out how to improve his control, he won’t ever be the dominant starter that many people in Baltimore are hoping.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)