Late Innings

I know I got around late to this, but regular readers of Late Innings know that I poke fun at Kyle Lohse often. And after yesterday, I got a few emails asking me about what I thought about Kyle Lohse’s 4 year/41MM contract extension from the Cardinals (this is an extension since he technically didn’t hit free agency.) Honestly I don’t see the Cardinals getting any sort of a “bargain” here. If anything they might have overpaid.

There was a story which came out yesterday, stating that MLB home runs per game are at fifteen-year historic lows. Is this all because of the steroid issue which broke after last year’s Mitchell Report? Not sure. Torii Hunter was quoted on this issue as well. However in the end, we had low home run totals in 2008. The AL Leader was Miguel Cabrera, who only hit 37 this year. There were only two hitters in the majors who had more home runs: Adam Dunn (who hit 40 between the Reds and Diamondbacks) and Ryan Howard (who hit 48, I’ll talk more on him later this week.) Hitting was down this year, slugging was down. What was up? Simple, it was pitching.

In 2007, we only had one starting pitcher who ended up with a (qualifying) ERA under 3.00, and that was Jake Peavy. This year, we had seven. It seemed that many pitchers this year had career years, including Lohse, who ended up a solid 15 wins and a 3.78 ERA. Lohse always had good stuff, however at times he is far too hittable. He still projects to a number #3 starter, however being behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in next year’s rotation, this should fit well for him. The one thing that Lohse has going for him is his durability, and Lohse is a little bit better than just an “innings eater.”

I poked fun at Lohse last year since he was seeking a contract very similar to the one that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners (4 years/48MM.) In hindsight, this was a terrible move by the Mariners (he went 4-15, 6.46), and any team that would have gave that money to Lohse would have had buyer’s remorse. The Phillies offered Lohse 3 years/21MM, which he and (his agent) Scott Boras scoffed at. In the end, he settled on a one year 4.5MM deal with the Cardinals. All during the season, we heard remarks that Lohse was going to go for the highest bidder come free agency. However in the end, it was Lohse who asked the Cardinals to begin talks for an extension.

Lohse read the market. He saw the resurgence in pitching. He was right in doing this; his value probably couldn’t be any higher. Pitching is back in baseball, and this should impact the cost of starting pitching in free agency. Yes we know that C.C. Sabathia will most likely get 20MM per year this winter, however will teams spend in excess of 12MM per year on someone like Jon Garland, when they can surely get the innings (and quality) at a much cheaper price?

I’m not sure how this news will impact other free agent starters. Everyone thought it was certain that Oliver Perez would be a 15MM to 18MM pitcher this year, even coming off an off year where he only won ten games. However that doesn’t seem as likely. The same thing goes with A.J. Burnett. The Jays have reportedly offered him a four year, 54MM contract (nullifying the remaining two years, 24MM on his current deal. On an aside, I was close when I guessed that he’d get 51MM over four years.) If Burnett (who won 18 games in 2008) wants to stay in Toronto, he’ll take the offer. I honestly think he’ll do the same. Other people (like Rosenthal) think that Burnett wants to hit the open market, where he could get 18MM-20MM per year with the New York teams bidding.

I think the Jays’ offer is very fair, especially in comparison to the Lohse contract. Kyle Lohse set the market with this deal yesterday, and this will be used as the barometer for signing the remaining free agent starters. As a prediction: I think the starters are going to sign for far less than many people are expecting.

Lohse got something it took him a year to get: job security. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)