Late Innings

Earlier in the year before the season started, I predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers would represent the National League in this year’s Fall Classic, defeating the Tigers in just five games. I was partially right here, especially with the Tigers being eliminated from contention a few weeks ago (in all fairness, there were many people who expected the Tigers to be a World Series team.) The Dodgers are going to the postseason, and have been playing solid baseball, especially with Manny Ramirez (.333, 37, 121) being on the tear that he is. After the season’s over however, Ned Colletti and the rest of the management will have their hands cut out for them.

Long story short, the Dodgers have to pay this dipshit.

As of today, going by the players that are on their payroll, the Dodgers rank seventh in team payroll, at just over 118MM (a summation of the player salaries on the forty man roster.) Ten days after the World Series is over, a substantial amount of this will be off the books. Looking at this list:

• Manny Ramirez (OF) - 20MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Rafeal Furcal (IF) - 16MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Greg Maddux (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Nomar Garciaparra (IF) - 9.5MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Brad Penny (SP) - 9.25MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (9.5MM club option likely to be declined)
• Jeff Kent (IF) - 9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Joe Beimel (RP) - 1.9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Angel Berroa (IF) - 4.75MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (5.5MM option likely to be declined)
• Casey Blake (IF) - 6.1MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Derek Lowe (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent

That’s a substantial amount of money coming off the books, equally as much as the Yankees have coming off the books this Winter. Will this attribute a spending spree for the Dodgers in 2009? Highly unlikely.

The Dodgers still have a few “toxic” contracts on the books now; these include Jason Schmidt (15.5MM in ‘09), Juan Pierre (28.5MM owed between ‘09 and ‘11) and Andruw Jones (15MM in ‘09, plus part of the remaining 12.2 signing bonus.) Once they’re gone, the team should hopefully be more liquid in the future (there have been rumors of them having cash problems.)

First things first, the team needs to resign Blake (even with him being 35.) They gave up a good deal for him, notably potential star catcher Carlos Santana. In addition to him, they need to get Ramirez under contract as well. They’re dropping the pair of 20MM options that he has over the next two years, and will offer him arbitration. Personally, I don’t see him getting 20MM again. He’s alienated a good number of his suitors with his play in Boston, and the arbitration issue is another hurdle to get around, since Ramirez is a Type-A free agent according to Elias. I see both of these two getting signed for something around 25MM to 30MM next season.

Furcal is another must-have, but he’s by no means a 16MM per year infielder (I questioned the contract right after he left Atlanta.) Let’s say he’ll make 12MM in ‘08. Penny and Maddux are gone, and I see Colletti going after another starting pitcher, especially if Lowe (14-11, 3.24) gets too expensive. I see the Dodgers spending 50MM for free agents on next year’s team. In addition to this, they’ll have to pay Andre Ethier (.301, 20, 76) and Russell Martin (.281, 13, 69), two players about to hit super-two status in regards to arbitration. The money saved after the above “toxic” contracts are off the books will pay the arbitration raises that will be given to James Loney (.292, 13, 90), Matt Kemp (.292, 18, 76), Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.17, 199K) and Jonathan Broxton (3.13, 14S, 88K.) This group (plus Ethier and Martin) could get very expensive after 2009.

After the Dodgers get the bad contracts off the books, they’ll be in a much better position. Personally I think they have a great team now, a terrific blend of veteran presence with young talent. And they have many more internal options ready to replace those about to leave this offseason (Blake DeWitt or Delwyn Young could replace Kent, who’s most likely to retire.) If Colletti would manage the team’s finances better starting this offseason, the Dodgers could be in midst of a good run of excellence, much like the one that Tampa Bay is experiencing now.